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The next major phase follows a recognizable pattern. Visible stress is followed by a catalyst, then lockstep action by major central banks. The historical outcome under comparable debt loads has been aggressive rate compression and expanded liquidity. PaulBarron Vandell | Black Swan Capitalist

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Versan | Black Swan Capitalist

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19,266 просмотров • 26 дней назад •via X (Twitter)

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The Federal Reserve partners with the US Treasury to manage issuance of government debt. During a shutdown, the Treasury runs with limited staff and operations slow down. That makes debt auctions and cash management harder. (Partner banks sell US debt to the Fed, which is a private entity managed by partner banks) If the shutdown drags on the Fed could face major turmoil in bond markets. Do you understand yet?
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🚨 BITCOIN FOLLOWS THIS PATTERN FOR 12 YEARS Everyone says the cycle is dead. But the chart says the opposite. Bitcoin has followed the same timing pattern for more than a DECADE../ Cycle top → 1430 days. Cycle bottom → 1460 days. This happened in 2013. This happened in 2017. This happened in 2021. This happened in 2025. Now Bitcoin is following the same structure one more time. The last major top came almost exactly on schedule, around 1431 days after the previous cycle top. That is not random. That is the cycle repeating. Now the next major low is projected around 1460 days from the last cycle bottom. That means the final dump is not chaos. It is part of the same pattern Bitcoin has followed for years. People will call it panic. People will call it the end. But historically, this is where Bitcoin creates the next bottom. Same timing. Same structure. Same cycle. Final bottom: 2026. Then the next expansion starts. I’ve studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

Wimar.X

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Wall Street Apes

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bitcoin:native LOOKS READY FOR THE NEXT LEG DOWN BTC has now swept liquidity above three major levels Each breakout failed to produce any meaningful continuation higher That matters After repeated failed breakouts, the market has already taken the upside liquidity Now the structure underneath is starting to weaken The rising lows that supported this move are the last thing holding the price up Once that support breaks, there's very little left below $70K is the first major downside target Then I'm looking at $63K followed by the $50K-$55K area Three fakeouts higher Now it looks like Bitcoin is finally ready to move in the other direction Are you ready?
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bitcoin:native LOOKS READY FOR THE NEXT LEG DOWN BTC has now swept liquidity above three major levels Each breakout failed to produce any meaningful continuation higher That matters After repeated failed breakouts, the market has already taken the upside liquidity Now the structure underneath is starting to weaken The rising lows that supported this move are the last thing holding the price up Once that support breaks, there's very little left below $70K is the first major downside target Then I'm looking at $63K followed by the $50K-$55K area Three fakeouts higher Now it looks like Bitcoin is finally ready to move in the other direction Are you ready?

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This is the most important chart in all of macro and most people still don't get it. Labor force participation rate vs government debt as a % of GDP, inverted. They move in perfect lockstep. Government debt has been accumulated to offset the declining working-age population, and from 2008 onwards, that debt has been mostly just servicing old debts while interest payments keep compounding. Demographics are destiny and ours are already written. The workers for the next decade have already been born. Or rather, they haven't been. Which means the borrowing and the debasement aren't going to ease. They're going to accelerate.

Raoul Pal

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NEW: The U.S. just made its biggest Bitcoin policy shift in a decade—and it could redefine this cycle. The CFTC has approved federally regulated spot Bitcoin trading, giving institutions real regulatory clarity and direct market access. In the new video, Adam Livingston explains: - What the new framework changes - Why major allocators now have a green light - How this puts the U.S. back in the lead on sound money - What it unlocks for liquidity and the next multi-year cycle This is the catalyst the market has been waiting for. Watch the full analysis to understand what just changed, and why it matters now more than ever.
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NEW: The U.S. just made its biggest Bitcoin policy shift in a decade—and it could redefine this cycle. The CFTC has approved federally regulated spot Bitcoin trading, giving institutions real regulatory clarity and direct market access. In the new video, Adam Livingston explains: - What the new framework changes - Why major allocators now have a green light - How this puts the U.S. back in the lead on sound money - What it unlocks for liquidity and the next multi-year cycle This is the catalyst the market has been waiting for. Watch the full analysis to understand what just changed, and why it matters now more than ever.

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🚨The biggest collapse on SPX is coming Just found this pattern Every 4 years, July has been followed by a major SPX sell-off. Here's the data: July 1998 → -23.71% July 2002 → -32.41% July 2006 → -9.60% July 2010 → -18.94% July 2014 → -11.05% July 2018 → -19.27% July 2022 → -19.92% July 2026 → -???? This pattern has NEVER failed. My first downside target is $6,320. When SPX falls, the rest of the market usually follows. So if you were thinking about buying any stocks, it's better to wait and watch the market. Follow and turn on notifications. I'll post the warning BEFORE it makes the headlines.
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🚨The biggest collapse on SPX is coming Just found this pattern Every 4 years, July has been followed by a major SPX sell-off. Here's the data: July 1998 → -23.71% July 2002 → -32.41% July 2006 → -9.60% July 2010 → -18.94% July 2014 → -11.05% July 2018 → -19.27% July 2022 → -19.92% July 2026 → -???? This pattern has NEVER failed. My first downside target is $6,320. When SPX falls, the rest of the market usually follows. So if you were thinking about buying any stocks, it's better to wait and watch the market. Follow and turn on notifications. I'll post the warning BEFORE it makes the headlines.

winkle.

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🚨 $BTC MAJOR DOWNSIDE PHASE HAS BEGUN... Since early May, I've been saying that $BTC would eventually take out local lows and break below $60k $60k-$63k support zone has now been decisively lost and further downside could become aggressive Based on chart below, here's my roadmap for summer: 1. Bounce from the support zone → retest of $71k 2. Distribution phase begins 3. Impulsive sell-off toward $46k-$48k 4. Slow bottom formation → accumulation starts If it seemed like bottom was already in, current data suggests otherwise Bear market is still ongoing and avoiding major mistakes is more important than ever Prepare for a massive $BTC accumulation phase before next major expansion Turn on notifications so you don't miss next call...
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🚨 $BTC MAJOR DOWNSIDE PHASE HAS BEGUN... Since early May, I've been saying that $BTC would eventually take out local lows and break below $60k $60k-$63k support zone has now been decisively lost and further downside could become aggressive Based on chart below, here's my roadmap for summer: 1. Bounce from the support zone → retest of $71k 2. Distribution phase begins 3. Impulsive sell-off toward $46k-$48k 4. Slow bottom formation → accumulation starts If it seemed like bottom was already in, current data suggests otherwise Bear market is still ongoing and avoiding major mistakes is more important than ever Prepare for a massive $BTC accumulation phase before next major expansion Turn on notifications so you don't miss next call...

Aralez 🐕

167,999 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Ray Dalio: “Debt problem is followed by devaluation of the currency.” Looks like this is exactly how the US will handle its debt problem. Kevin Warsh’s Fed will peg short-term rates to artificially low levels, and buy treasuries to keep them down, inflating the debt away. We saw this play out in the three decades following World War II, and it’s plausible that the US is preparing for a similar maneuver as Debt/GDP is currently over 120%. This is why central banks are dumping US debt and buying gold instead.
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Ray Dalio: “Debt problem is followed by devaluation of the currency.” Looks like this is exactly how the US will handle its debt problem. Kevin Warsh’s Fed will peg short-term rates to artificially low levels, and buy treasuries to keep them down, inflating the debt away. We saw this play out in the three decades following World War II, and it’s plausible that the US is preparing for a similar maneuver as Debt/GDP is currently over 120%. This is why central banks are dumping US debt and buying gold instead.

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