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The Saudis’ East-West pipeline sustained catastrophic damage in 8 different parts. The damage is so severe that it may take months, if not years, to repair and recommence after the wars are over. That’s another 7 million barrels of oil daily that is offline. Experts say oil can easily... show more

Tomthunkit™

98,784 subscribers

20,218 просмотров • 13 дней назад •via X (Twitter)

Anya Rossi• Live Now

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Комментарии: 14

Фото профиля ISDD

ISDD13 дней назад

LoL 😂😂😂 Saudi Arabia is where the demon state of Israel was acquiring it's oil from. This satanic chapter is about to close for the Jew terrorists who invaded Palestine.

Фото профиля Tiki Rose USAF Retiree w/ 20 yrs Active Duty

Tiki Rose USAF Retiree w/ 20 yrs Active Duty13 дней назад

China gets their oil from Iran U.S. gets its oil from Canada, but Trump has ruined that for us and the @SenateGOP & @HouseGOP aren't doing a damned thing about it! They kiss Trump's ass even though 95% of the nation wants him GONE!

Фото профиля Hennie Van der lem

Hennie Van der lem13 дней назад

Stop these fools

Фото профиля dennis schibel

dennis schibel13 дней назад

This is s well planned dismantling of a global economy Setting it up for a "reset "

Фото профиля Bad Wolf 🤓

Bad Wolf 🤓13 дней назад

Donald Trump and Bibi Netanyahu started all this to distract from their respective legal cases in #Israel and the #EpsteinFiles The Saudi Arabia East-West pipeline is the pipeline Republican have been bragging about to bypass the Strait of Hormuz but #Iran is next door here too

Фото профиля BatisHandbag

BatisHandbag13 дней назад

Now that Saudi Arabia is being stopped we shall see a dramatic reduction in the civil wars and the slaughter of christians in Sahel.

Фото профиля Innocent Bystander

Innocent Bystander13 дней назад

Can you spell hyper inflation ?

Фото профиля ToroVic

ToroVic13 дней назад

Everyone thank Trump for destroying world economy

Фото профиля dse1215

dse121513 дней назад

PANIC!!

Фото профиля st-abc

st-abc13 дней назад

石油と水もやられて滅びるとか？(笑)

Фото профиля Charlie Rhoden

Charlie Rhoden13 дней назад

Stop exaggerating. Seven locations will be down and tested inside of 2 months dude.

Фото профиля Ari Kaihola

Ari Kaihola13 дней назад

If that is true, sounds like Russia has helped in guiding those drones. Higher oil prices benefit russia.

Фото профиля ELE Lobo Gris 🕊️

ELE Lobo Gris 🕊️13 дней назад

👍👊💣

Фото профиля junyto

junyto13 дней назад

OMG, I'm not going to be able to afford groceries. Please pray for me.

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Saudi Arabia was forced to shut down a key oil pipeline after multiple attacks. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthis marched to take control of Yemen's entire Red Sea coast, and are threatening a second critical waterway. James Longman has the latest.

Saudi Arabia was forced to shut down a key oil pipeline after multiple attacks. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthis marched to take control of Yemen's entire Red Sea coast, and are threatening a second critical waterway. James Longman has the latest.

World News Tonight

17,358 просмотров • 13 дней назад

Saudi Arabia's East West pipeline, which carries about 4 million barrels a day to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, was shut down Friday. The number that should worry people isn't the 4%, it's the 5 to 7 days. A damaged pipeline is a supply problem with a known fix; a stockpile that runs out before the fix is finished is a price shock... because oil already loaded on ships doesn't care how fast Saudi Arabia's repair crews work. This pipeline exists specifically because it lets Saudi oil skip the Strait of Hormuz, so its outage doesn't just remove 4% of world supply, it removes the one workaround that was keeping that other 4-6% moving too. And the timing isn't isolated: Houthi fighters reportedly seized a Red Sea island the same day.

Saudi Arabia's East West pipeline, which carries about 4 million barrels a day to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, was shut down Friday. The number that should worry people isn't the 4%, it's the 5 to 7 days. A damaged pipeline is a supply problem with a known fix; a stockpile that runs out before the fix is finished is a price shock... because oil already loaded on ships doesn't care how fast Saudi Arabia's repair crews work. This pipeline exists specifically because it lets Saudi oil skip the Strait of Hormuz, so its outage doesn't just remove 4% of world supply, it removes the one workaround that was keeping that other 4-6% moving too. And the timing isn't isolated: Houthi fighters reportedly seized a Red Sea island the same day.

Donald J Trump Posts TruthSocial

212,690 просмотров • 11 дней назад

Saudi Arabia built the East-West Pipeline as a backup for a Strait of Hormuz crisis. If the chokepoint is disrupted, oil can be pumped across Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea, where tankers can carry it to global markets without passing through the Gulf. But reportedly, drones launched from Iraq targeted critical pumping infrastructure near Riyadh and Madinah rather than the pipeline itself. That could be more damaging: while a pipeline puncture may be repaired relatively quickly, specialised pumping equipment can take weeks to restore. Initial estimates suggest repairs could take 5–6 weeks. That creates a major strategic problem. Saudi Arabia may have spare oil capacity, but it still needs a functioning route to export it. With Hormuz already disrupted, damage to the East-West Pipeline’s pumping network could weaken Saudi Arabia’s most important alternative export route—making this far more than just an attack on oil infrastructure. #iran #saudiarabia #drone #DroneStrike #Hormuz

Saudi Arabia built the East-West Pipeline as a backup for a Strait of Hormuz crisis. If the chokepoint is disrupted, oil can be pumped across Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea, where tankers can carry it to global markets without passing through the Gulf. But reportedly, drones launched from Iraq targeted critical pumping infrastructure near Riyadh and Madinah rather than the pipeline itself. That could be more damaging: while a pipeline puncture may be repaired relatively quickly, specialised pumping equipment can take weeks to restore. Initial estimates suggest repairs could take 5–6 weeks. That creates a major strategic problem. Saudi Arabia may have spare oil capacity, but it still needs a functioning route to export it. With Hormuz already disrupted, damage to the East-West Pipeline’s pumping network could weaken Saudi Arabia’s most important alternative export route—making this far more than just an attack on oil infrastructure. #iran #saudiarabia #drone #DroneStrike #Hormuz

Srijan Pal Singh

48,162 просмотров • 11 дней назад

Saudi Arabia and Israel held talks mediated by CENTCOM for Israel intelligence support against the Houthis. Shortly after, media reported Saudi attacks on 5 locations in Yemen. Earlier this week, Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline was attacked causing oil prices to surge. With the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el Mandab maritime chokepoints closed by Iran and Houthis, the East-West pipeline was an attempt to circumvent that by feeding crude into the Red Sea and export through the Suez Canal. Now, that is also shutdown and the Saudis are working with the Israelis. Reporting has long alleged the Saudis worked with the Israelis to encourage the U.S. to start the war on Iran which started this whole situation.

Saudi Arabia and Israel held talks mediated by CENTCOM for Israel intelligence support against the Houthis. Shortly after, media reported Saudi attacks on 5 locations in Yemen. Earlier this week, Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline was attacked causing oil prices to surge. With the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el Mandab maritime chokepoints closed by Iran and Houthis, the East-West pipeline was an attempt to circumvent that by feeding crude into the Red Sea and export through the Suez Canal. Now, that is also shutdown and the Saudis are working with the Israelis. Reporting has long alleged the Saudis worked with the Israelis to encourage the U.S. to start the war on Iran which started this whole situation.

Shadow of Ezra

41,255 просмотров • 10 дней назад

🇸🇦🇮🇷 Saudi Arabia built a pipeline to escape Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz. Now that pipeline has been knocked offline, and Saudi is being forced to send MORE oil through Hormuz. The strategic trap around the Kingdom is tightening incredibly fast. Saudi's East-West pipeline was supposed to be its insurance policy. Move millions of barrels of oil across the country to Yanbu, load it onto tankers in the Red Sea and bypass Hormuz completely. Then came the drone attack, and now the clock is ticking. Existing oil inventories at Yanbu could be depleted within roughly 5–7 days if flows aren't restored. So Saudi is doing something extraordinary: Increasing oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, MBS is scrambling for help. The Saudis have already asked Trump to join their campaign against the Houthis. He declined. Now MBS is reportedly heading to Cairo as Riyadh searches for another regional military power capable of helping it contain the crisis. Saudi was supposed to be the energy superpower capable of keeping oil flowing when Hormuz went bad. Instead, the Houthis have destroyed its Plan B. Brandon Weichert

🇸🇦🇮🇷 Saudi Arabia built a pipeline to escape Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz. Now that pipeline has been knocked offline, and Saudi is being forced to send MORE oil through Hormuz. The strategic trap around the Kingdom is tightening incredibly fast. Saudi's East-West pipeline was supposed to be its insurance policy. Move millions of barrels of oil across the country to Yanbu, load it onto tankers in the Red Sea and bypass Hormuz completely. Then came the drone attack, and now the clock is ticking. Existing oil inventories at Yanbu could be depleted within roughly 5–7 days if flows aren't restored. So Saudi is doing something extraordinary: Increasing oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, MBS is scrambling for help. The Saudis have already asked Trump to join their campaign against the Houthis. He declined. Now MBS is reportedly heading to Cairo as Riyadh searches for another regional military power capable of helping it contain the crisis. Saudi was supposed to be the energy superpower capable of keeping oil flowing when Hormuz went bad. Instead, the Houthis have destroyed its Plan B. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

289,187 просмотров • 10 дней назад

Saudi Arabia shut down a key pipeline used to bypass oil from the Strait of Hormuz after it was damaged in drone attacks. Bloomberg Economics’ Ziad Daoud says other strategic arteries are at risk as the conflict with Iran spreads. “These are not immune to war.”

Saudi Arabia shut down a key pipeline used to bypass oil from the Strait of Hormuz after it was damaged in drone attacks. Bloomberg Economics’ Ziad Daoud says other strategic arteries are at risk as the conflict with Iran spreads. “These are not immune to war.”

Bloomberg

137,078 просмотров • 12 дней назад

US Ambassador: “Put a pipeline down to the border… if Alberta wanted us to build a pipeline to the west coast, because they said we’ve got another 2M barrels of oil per day that we want to ship to Asia and Japan, I would think that we’d be very open to having that discussion”.

US Ambassador: “Put a pipeline down to the border… if Alberta wanted us to build a pipeline to the west coast, because they said we’ve got another 2M barrels of oil per day that we want to ship to Asia and Japan, I would think that we’d be very open to having that discussion”.

Rebel News

349,610 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 DANGER: ARE THE HOUTHIS A SERIOUS RISK TO OIL TRAFFIC IN THE RED SEA?! They've already proven they are. Yemen's Iranian - backed Houthis declared a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia. In two weeks, Saudi crude loadings through the Bab el - Mandeb collapsed 36% - from 9.5 million to 6.1 million barrels daily. They're already attacking tankers. Saudi Arabia was using the Red Sea as an escape route because Iran blocked Hormuz. Seventy percent of their crude exports now move through this strait. Two tanker attacks forced them to halt all shipments temporarily. The Bab el - Mandeb carries 12% of global maritime trade. A full Houthi closure cuts global oil supply by 7%. Combined with the Hormuz blockade, that's a quarter of global oil and gas at risk. This is Iran squeezing two chokepoints at once. Can we protect the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea?

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 DANGER: ARE THE HOUTHIS A SERIOUS RISK TO OIL TRAFFIC IN THE RED SEA?! They've already proven they are. Yemen's Iranian - backed Houthis declared a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia. In two weeks, Saudi crude loadings through the Bab el - Mandeb collapsed 36% - from 9.5 million to 6.1 million barrels daily. They're already attacking tankers. Saudi Arabia was using the Red Sea as an escape route because Iran blocked Hormuz. Seventy percent of their crude exports now move through this strait. Two tanker attacks forced them to halt all shipments temporarily. The Bab el - Mandeb carries 12% of global maritime trade. A full Houthi closure cuts global oil supply by 7%. Combined with the Hormuz blockade, that's a quarter of global oil and gas at risk. This is Iran squeezing two chokepoints at once. Can we protect the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea?

Bill Mitchell

14,056 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

JUST IN: 🇸🇦🇮🇶🇮🇷 Panic Grips Iraq As Saudi Arabia Could Launch Massive Airstrikes Against Iran Backed Proxies After Drones From Iraq Hit Vital Saudi Oil Pipeline Iran backed militias operating in Iraq are facing mounting pressure after drones launched from Iraqi territory struck Saudi Arabia’s strategic East West oil pipeline in the Riyadh and Medina regions, causing injuries and damage. Iraq has launched an investigation, dismissed a military commander in Maysan province and closed the Shalamcheh and Chazabeh border crossings with Iran. Saudi Arabia has so far shown restraint at Baghdad’s request, but Riyadh has made clear that it reserves the right to take all necessary measures to defend the Kingdom. Iran’s proxy network is now facing a potentially powerful Saudi response.

JUST IN: 🇸🇦🇮🇶🇮🇷 Panic Grips Iraq As Saudi Arabia Could Launch Massive Airstrikes Against Iran Backed Proxies After Drones From Iraq Hit Vital Saudi Oil Pipeline Iran backed militias operating in Iraq are facing mounting pressure after drones launched from Iraqi territory struck Saudi Arabia’s strategic East West oil pipeline in the Riyadh and Medina regions, causing injuries and damage. Iraq has launched an investigation, dismissed a military commander in Maysan province and closed the Shalamcheh and Chazabeh border crossings with Iran. Saudi Arabia has so far shown restraint at Baghdad’s request, but Riyadh has made clear that it reserves the right to take all necessary measures to defend the Kingdom. Iran’s proxy network is now facing a potentially powerful Saudi response.

War Radar

53,142 просмотров • 13 дней назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Iran war’s real economic shock is only arriving now For months, the world had a cushion. Oil already at sea kept arriving. Countries drew down strategic reserves. Saudi Arabia still had its east-west pipeline feeding the Red Sea. Larry Johnson says those buffers are now disappearing. The oil that left before and during the brief lull has largely reached its destination. Strategic reserves have been drawn down. And the Saudi east-west pipeline, one of the most important routes bypassing Hormuz, is now offline after being attacked. That is why the fuel crisis can get worse even months after the initial fighting. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth is quoted in the discussion warning that many of the buffers that initially protected markets have now been exhausted. Diesel has meanwhile climbed above $6 a gallon, while Saudi Arabia is warning customers that shipments will be cut. And the next buffer is being pushed hard. U.S. refineries have reportedly operated above 95% utilization for 11 consecutive weeks, delaying maintenance to compensate for the global shortage, increasing the risk of breakdowns and unplanned outages. Johnson’s point is simple: the energy crisis did not disappear. It was simply traveling through the system. Now it is arriving. SonofNewAmericanRevolution

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Iran war’s real economic shock is only arriving now For months, the world had a cushion. Oil already at sea kept arriving. Countries drew down strategic reserves. Saudi Arabia still had its east-west pipeline feeding the Red Sea. Larry Johnson says those buffers are now disappearing. The oil that left before and during the brief lull has largely reached its destination. Strategic reserves have been drawn down. And the Saudi east-west pipeline, one of the most important routes bypassing Hormuz, is now offline after being attacked. That is why the fuel crisis can get worse even months after the initial fighting. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth is quoted in the discussion warning that many of the buffers that initially protected markets have now been exhausted. Diesel has meanwhile climbed above $6 a gallon, while Saudi Arabia is warning customers that shipments will be cut. And the next buffer is being pushed hard. U.S. refineries have reportedly operated above 95% utilization for 11 consecutive weeks, delaying maintenance to compensate for the global shortage, increasing the risk of breakdowns and unplanned outages. Johnson’s point is simple: the energy crisis did not disappear. It was simply traveling through the system. Now it is arriving. SonofNewAmericanRevolution

Mario Nawfal

283,528 просмотров • 9 дней назад

Isn’t it cute how Saudi Arabia and Mossad are cooperating to bypass the Straight of Hormuz. Except they left out one important detail. Although the East–West Crude Oil Pipeline allows Saudi oil to reach the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, there’s still a shortfall of oil exports. Saudi Arabia produces about 10 mb/d, while the pipeline can carry ~5–7 mb/d at maximum capacity. It’s also not hard for Iran to knock out this pipeline if they want. However around 20 mb/d of global oil normally passes through Hormuz. Therefore, the pipeline reduces Saudi vulnerability but cannot fully offset the Hormuz blockade or global supply disruption by more than 13 mb/d. And guess what happens when Ansar’Allah show up and reimpose their Red Sea and Gulf of Aiden blockade?

Isn’t it cute how Saudi Arabia and Mossad are cooperating to bypass the Straight of Hormuz. Except they left out one important detail. Although the East–West Crude Oil Pipeline allows Saudi oil to reach the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, there’s still a shortfall of oil exports. Saudi Arabia produces about 10 mb/d, while the pipeline can carry ~5–7 mb/d at maximum capacity. It’s also not hard for Iran to knock out this pipeline if they want. However around 20 mb/d of global oil normally passes through Hormuz. Therefore, the pipeline reduces Saudi vulnerability but cannot fully offset the Hormuz blockade or global supply disruption by more than 13 mb/d. And guess what happens when Ansar’Allah show up and reimpose their Red Sea and Gulf of Aiden blockade?

Truth_teller 🇷🇺

76,250 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

A drone attack on a Saudi oil pumping station could have consequences far beyond the battlefield. Reports say the facility, linked to the 1,200-km East-West Pipeline, was attacked by pro-Iranian forces operating from Iraq, forcing Saudi Arabia to halt operations at the site. The East-West Pipeline is strategically important because it allows Saudi crude to reach the Red Sea without passing through the Strait of Hormuz. But the pipeline depends on pumping stations to keep crude moving, meaning damage to a critical station can disrupt the wider system rather than just one location. Estimates suggest the disruption could reduce global oil supply by around 4%. If that figure holds, it shows why energy infrastructure has become a strategic target: a relatively small drone attack on one critical node can potentially create consequences across the entire global oil market. #saudiarabia #saudi #Hormuz #Houthi #HouthiRebels #drones

A drone attack on a Saudi oil pumping station could have consequences far beyond the battlefield. Reports say the facility, linked to the 1,200-km East-West Pipeline, was attacked by pro-Iranian forces operating from Iraq, forcing Saudi Arabia to halt operations at the site. The East-West Pipeline is strategically important because it allows Saudi crude to reach the Red Sea without passing through the Strait of Hormuz. But the pipeline depends on pumping stations to keep crude moving, meaning damage to a critical station can disrupt the wider system rather than just one location. Estimates suggest the disruption could reduce global oil supply by around 4%. If that figure holds, it shows why energy infrastructure has become a strategic target: a relatively small drone attack on one critical node can potentially create consequences across the entire global oil market. #saudiarabia #saudi #Hormuz #Houthi #HouthiRebels #drones

Srijan Pal Singh

13,307 просмотров • 10 дней назад

BREAKING: Experts believe oil could hit $200/barrel and gas could hit $7.00/gallon if the war in Iran continues. “Well it’s realistic if this war goes on… If this continues it means that all of the oil that is locked in the Strait of Hormuz, that’s 20% of the world’s oil that is not getting out… So you can imagine because of supply and demand, if we don’t get that supply and we have all of the demand for oil, then prices will continue to rise. If this goes to June, $200 is realistic.”

BREAKING: Experts believe oil could hit $200/barrel and gas could hit $7.00/gallon if the war in Iran continues. “Well it’s realistic if this war goes on… If this continues it means that all of the oil that is locked in the Strait of Hormuz, that’s 20% of the world’s oil that is not getting out… So you can imagine because of supply and demand, if we don’t get that supply and we have all of the demand for oil, then prices will continue to rise. If this goes to June, $200 is realistic.”

Ed Krassenstein

68,616 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

🇸🇦🇾🇪 Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline was supposed to be the insurance policy. If Hormuz became unusable, oil could cross the kingdom to Yanbu on the Red Sea instead. Now a relatively cheap Houthi drone attack has reportedly caused substantial damage to one of its pumping stations. Saudi Arabia built enormously expensive infrastructure to remove one chokepoint. The Houthis may have discovered it simply created another. Brandon Weichert

🇸🇦🇾🇪 Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline was supposed to be the insurance policy. If Hormuz became unusable, oil could cross the kingdom to Yanbu on the Red Sea instead. Now a relatively cheap Houthi drone attack has reportedly caused substantial damage to one of its pumping stations. Saudi Arabia built enormously expensive infrastructure to remove one chokepoint. The Houthis may have discovered it simply created another. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

46,822 просмотров • 10 дней назад

Oil trading expert explains why opening the Strait of Hormuz still won't fix the oil crisis “Kuwait is producing no oil, Iraq is producing almost no oil, Saudi Arabia's production is down significantly” “Other than the US and Russia, the largest oil-producing countries in the world have their production effectively shut down” “If the Strait opened tomorrow, it would still take months to repair some of the damage that’s been done”

Oil trading expert explains why opening the Strait of Hormuz still won't fix the oil crisis “Kuwait is producing no oil, Iraq is producing almost no oil, Saudi Arabia's production is down significantly” “Other than the US and Russia, the largest oil-producing countries in the world have their production effectively shut down” “If the Strait opened tomorrow, it would still take months to repair some of the damage that’s been done”

Jack

44,743 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

Experts have been warning for days that we could see a BIG stock market correction on Monday due to all of the bad AI bubble news. If you combine that with Iran successfully launching a military offensive that has shut down Saudi Arabia‘s largest oil pipeline, coupled with the taking of the West Coast of Yemen by Iranian proxies I think fireworks are on the way. Bottom line, Iran now controls the SoH and the Red Sea straight..

Experts have been warning for days that we could see a BIG stock market correction on Monday due to all of the bad AI bubble news. If you combine that with Iran successfully launching a military offensive that has shut down Saudi Arabia‘s largest oil pipeline, coupled with the taking of the West Coast of Yemen by Iranian proxies I think fireworks are on the way. Bottom line, Iran now controls the SoH and the Red Sea straight..

Alex Jones

360,632 просмотров • 12 дней назад

The US is about to charge $30 million per tanker to cross the Strait of Hormuz. Trump just declared the US the "Guardian of the Hormuz Strait" and said it will take a 20% cut on all cargo passing through. Here is what that actually means. A fully loaded supertanker carries about 2 million barrels of oil. At $75 a barrel, that cargo is worth roughly $150 million. A 20% fee on that is $30 million. Per ship. Per crossing. Now compare that to what Iran was charging. Iran's toll has been running at $1.5 million to $2 million per vessel. On a $150 million cargo, that is about 1.3%. Trump called that toll unacceptable. His replacement is roughly 15 times more expensive. The scale of this is what nobody is talking about. Before the war, 20.3 million barrels of oil crossed Hormuz every single day. At $75 oil, that is $1.52 billion of crude moving through the strait daily. A 20% cut on that comes to roughly $304 million a day. That is about $111 billion a year. For comparison, Iran's entire toll system was projected to earn $1 billion to $2 billion a year at best. The US plan would collect more than 50 times that. There is no precedent for this anywhere in global trade. The Suez Canal charges roughly $300,000 to $700,000 per vessel. The Panama Canal is similar. Both are man-made canals that countries built and maintain. Hormuz is a natural waterway. Under international law, ships have a right of transit passage through it. That is the exact legal argument the US used against Iran's toll. And the cost does not land on the US. It lands on Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq, who ship the oil. And on China, India, Japan, and South Korea, who buy it. A $30 million fee per tanker works out to $15 per barrel. That gets passed straight into the price of crude. Oil is already up over 4% today. The strait that was supposed to reopen and lower prices is now being turned into the most expensive stretch of water on earth.

The US is about to charge $30 million per tanker to cross the Strait of Hormuz. Trump just declared the US the "Guardian of the Hormuz Strait" and said it will take a 20% cut on all cargo passing through. Here is what that actually means. A fully loaded supertanker carries about 2 million barrels of oil. At $75 a barrel, that cargo is worth roughly $150 million. A 20% fee on that is $30 million. Per ship. Per crossing. Now compare that to what Iran was charging. Iran's toll has been running at $1.5 million to $2 million per vessel. On a $150 million cargo, that is about 1.3%. Trump called that toll unacceptable. His replacement is roughly 15 times more expensive. The scale of this is what nobody is talking about. Before the war, 20.3 million barrels of oil crossed Hormuz every single day. At $75 oil, that is $1.52 billion of crude moving through the strait daily. A 20% cut on that comes to roughly $304 million a day. That is about $111 billion a year. For comparison, Iran's entire toll system was projected to earn $1 billion to $2 billion a year at best. The US plan would collect more than 50 times that. There is no precedent for this anywhere in global trade. The Suez Canal charges roughly $300,000 to $700,000 per vessel. The Panama Canal is similar. Both are man-made canals that countries built and maintain. Hormuz is a natural waterway. Under international law, ships have a right of transit passage through it. That is the exact legal argument the US used against Iran's toll. And the cost does not land on the US. It lands on Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq, who ship the oil. And on China, India, Japan, and South Korea, who buy it. A $30 million fee per tanker works out to $15 per barrel. That gets passed straight into the price of crude. Oil is already up over 4% today. The strait that was supposed to reopen and lower prices is now being turned into the most expensive stretch of water on earth.

The Macro Paper

63,688 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

OIL JUMPS AGAIN #Saudi oil output slumps 23% to a 36-year low as Hormuz and Red Sea routes close in Saudi Arabia’s oil production collapsed to 6.24 million barrels a day in August, down 23% from July and the lowest monthly level reported by the kingdom since 1990. The number is a stark measure of what the war with Iran and the Houthi campaign in the Red Sea have done to the world’s biggest oil exporter. #Saudi Arabia still has the wells, pipelines and theoretical spare capacity. What it increasingly lacks is a reliable way to get the barrels out. In July, #Saudi production had recovered to around 8.14 million barrels a day during a brief lull in the fighting. By August, that recovery was gone. Output fell by roughly 1.9 million barrels a day. Exports were hit even harder. Tanker tracking put #Saudi crude shipments at only around 3.1 to 3.2 million barrels a day, the weakest level in more than a decade. Before the war, #Saudi Arabia regularly exported more than 7 million barrels a day. The problem is geography. The Strait of #Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil normally passes, became a war zone after the conflict with #Iran escalated. Tanker traffic collapsed as attacks and the threat of further strikes made the #Gulf route increasingly difficult to use. #Saudi Arabia had an obvious alternative. Its East-West pipeline was built precisely for a Hormuz crisis. It carries crude across the kingdom to Yanbu on the Red Sea, allowing Saudi oil to reach tankers without passing through the Strait. But the alternative route is now under attack as well. The Houthis in #Yemen have turned the southern Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb into another danger zone. Their attacks on shipping, combined with strikes against Saudi targets, have made the Red Sea route far less dependable. That leaves #Riyadh squeezed between two maritime chokepoints. When crude cannot be exported, production eventually has to come down. Storage tanks can absorb the first shock. They cannot absorb an unlimited number of barrels every day. Aramco therefore has an increasingly simple choice: reduce production or keep filling storage with oil that has nowhere reliable to go. There is an important distinction in the numbers. Saudi Arabia reported 7.12 million barrels a day of “supply to the market” in August, almost 900,000 barrels above its reported production. The difference points to inventory being drawn down to keep customers supplied. That provides breathing room. It does not solve the problem. Inventories can bridge a temporary disruption. They cannot permanently replace functioning export routes. The market has begun pricing that distinction. Brent crude moved above $100 a barrel this week and traded around $107 as attacks on shipping and Saudi energy infrastructure intensified. That is a sharp move from the roughly $70 level seen before the war. Saudi Arabia has already experienced a similar production shock during the conflict. Output fell to around 6.32 million barrels a day in April before recovering in June and July. The pattern is becoming difficult to ignore. When one export route is threatened, Saudi Arabia can reroute barrels. When both Hormuz and the Red Sea are contested, the kingdom's spare capacity becomes much less useful. And that is the bigger problem for the oil market. Saudi Arabia is traditionally the producer everyone expects to turn to when supplies disappear. Riyadh can normally open the taps and send additional crude into the market. But spare capacity sitting behind a closed or dangerous shipping route is not the same thing as spare capacity available to consumers. The same problem applies to other Gulf producers. Much of the region's oil ultimately depends on a small number of strategic waterways. Disrupt one and cargoes can be rerouted. Threaten both at the same time and the entire logistics system starts to tighten. The 6.24 million-barrel figure should therefore not be viewed simply as another monthly production statistic. It is a warning about infrastructure. Saudi Arabia spent decades preparing for a Hormuz crisis. The East-West pipeline was one of the kingdom's insurance policies against precisely such a scenario. Now the war is testing the insurance policy itself. If the fighting continues and both routes remain contested, Saudi Arabia will have to rely increasingly on inventories, limited shipping corridors and whatever tanker traffic is willing to accept the risk. That leaves the oil market with a very different question from the one it faced before the war. It is no longer simply how much oil can Saudi Arabia produce? It is how much oil can Saudi Arabia reliably deliver? Right now, the answer is falling fast. If you want, I can also make this more Inside Paradeplatz / Lukas Hässig style, with a more provocative opening and a harder final paragraph.

OIL JUMPS AGAIN #Saudi oil output slumps 23% to a 36-year low as Hormuz and Red Sea routes close in Saudi Arabia’s oil production collapsed to 6.24 million barrels a day in August, down 23% from July and the lowest monthly level reported by the kingdom since 1990. The number is a stark measure of what the war with Iran and the Houthi campaign in the Red Sea have done to the world’s biggest oil exporter. #Saudi Arabia still has the wells, pipelines and theoretical spare capacity. What it increasingly lacks is a reliable way to get the barrels out. In July, #Saudi production had recovered to around 8.14 million barrels a day during a brief lull in the fighting. By August, that recovery was gone. Output fell by roughly 1.9 million barrels a day. Exports were hit even harder. Tanker tracking put #Saudi crude shipments at only around 3.1 to 3.2 million barrels a day, the weakest level in more than a decade. Before the war, #Saudi Arabia regularly exported more than 7 million barrels a day. The problem is geography. The Strait of #Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil normally passes, became a war zone after the conflict with #Iran escalated. Tanker traffic collapsed as attacks and the threat of further strikes made the #Gulf route increasingly difficult to use. #Saudi Arabia had an obvious alternative. Its East-West pipeline was built precisely for a Hormuz crisis. It carries crude across the kingdom to Yanbu on the Red Sea, allowing Saudi oil to reach tankers without passing through the Strait. But the alternative route is now under attack as well. The Houthis in #Yemen have turned the southern Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb into another danger zone. Their attacks on shipping, combined with strikes against Saudi targets, have made the Red Sea route far less dependable. That leaves #Riyadh squeezed between two maritime chokepoints. When crude cannot be exported, production eventually has to come down. Storage tanks can absorb the first shock. They cannot absorb an unlimited number of barrels every day. Aramco therefore has an increasingly simple choice: reduce production or keep filling storage with oil that has nowhere reliable to go. There is an important distinction in the numbers. Saudi Arabia reported 7.12 million barrels a day of “supply to the market” in August, almost 900,000 barrels above its reported production. The difference points to inventory being drawn down to keep customers supplied. That provides breathing room. It does not solve the problem. Inventories can bridge a temporary disruption. They cannot permanently replace functioning export routes. The market has begun pricing that distinction. Brent crude moved above $100 a barrel this week and traded around $107 as attacks on shipping and Saudi energy infrastructure intensified. That is a sharp move from the roughly $70 level seen before the war. Saudi Arabia has already experienced a similar production shock during the conflict. Output fell to around 6.32 million barrels a day in April before recovering in June and July. The pattern is becoming difficult to ignore. When one export route is threatened, Saudi Arabia can reroute barrels. When both Hormuz and the Red Sea are contested, the kingdom's spare capacity becomes much less useful. And that is the bigger problem for the oil market. Saudi Arabia is traditionally the producer everyone expects to turn to when supplies disappear. Riyadh can normally open the taps and send additional crude into the market. But spare capacity sitting behind a closed or dangerous shipping route is not the same thing as spare capacity available to consumers. The same problem applies to other Gulf producers. Much of the region's oil ultimately depends on a small number of strategic waterways. Disrupt one and cargoes can be rerouted. Threaten both at the same time and the entire logistics system starts to tighten. The 6.24 million-barrel figure should therefore not be viewed simply as another monthly production statistic. It is a warning about infrastructure. Saudi Arabia spent decades preparing for a Hormuz crisis. The East-West pipeline was one of the kingdom's insurance policies against precisely such a scenario. Now the war is testing the insurance policy itself. If the fighting continues and both routes remain contested, Saudi Arabia will have to rely increasingly on inventories, limited shipping corridors and whatever tanker traffic is willing to accept the risk. That leaves the oil market with a very different question from the one it faced before the war. It is no longer simply how much oil can Saudi Arabia produce? It is how much oil can Saudi Arabia reliably deliver? Right now, the answer is falling fast. If you want, I can also make this more Inside Paradeplatz / Lukas Hässig style, with a more provocative opening and a harder final paragraph.

Russian Market

13,191 просмотров • 14 дней назад

Huge amounts of oil are spilling down the Los Angeles River A construction crew struck and ruptured an underground oil pipeline in East Los Angeles “A significant amount of oil in the LA River after an oil pipeline was ruptured — When the oil pipeline was ruptured, oil spilled into the streets, into a storm drained eventually into the LA River.” I found out approximately 2,400 gallons of crude oil spilled Officials estimate oil traveled roughly 8 miles downstream in the river. It has not reached the ocean entering Long Beach yet Cleanup is underway with hazmat teams and vacuum trucks

Huge amounts of oil are spilling down the Los Angeles River A construction crew struck and ruptured an underground oil pipeline in East Los Angeles “A significant amount of oil in the LA River after an oil pipeline was ruptured — When the oil pipeline was ruptured, oil spilled into the streets, into a storm drained eventually into the LA River.” I found out approximately 2,400 gallons of crude oil spilled Officials estimate oil traveled roughly 8 miles downstream in the river. It has not reached the ocean entering Long Beach yet Cleanup is underway with hazmat teams and vacuum trucks

Wall Street Apes

72,644 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

Oil traders are utilizing a new strategy to move Saudi oil out of the Red Sea by conducting STS transfers near the southern entrance of the Suez Canal. Houthis anti ship missiles can't reach this far north in egypt. VLCCs with Saudi oil travel northward and transfer their cargo to smaller Suezmax tankers, allowing the oil to bypass pipeline capacity limitations. Meanwhile, Russian vessels travel southward to perform STS transfers, after which the oil moves safely south toward Asia, avoiding Houthi threats. It is becoming increasingly difficult to track the true origin of the oil.

Oil traders are utilizing a new strategy to move Saudi oil out of the Red Sea by conducting STS transfers near the southern entrance of the Suez Canal. Houthis anti ship missiles can't reach this far north in egypt. VLCCs with Saudi oil travel northward and transfer their cargo to smaller Suezmax tankers, allowing the oil to bypass pipeline capacity limitations. Meanwhile, Russian vessels travel southward to perform STS transfers, after which the oil moves safely south toward Asia, avoiding Houthi threats. It is becoming increasingly difficult to track the true origin of the oil.

Ali

27,407 просмотров • 1 месяц назад