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The Space Shuttle holds the record for the most expensive crewed spacecraft ever built: each flight cost taxpayers roughly $1.5 billion (in 2010 dollars)... about 27 times more expensive per kilogram to orbit** than SpaceX's Falcon 9 is today. It wasn't retired because reusability failed. It was retired because...

294,053 次观看 • 8 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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In 2002, Elon Musk tried to buy a rocket. The Russians quoted him $8 million per unit. American aerospace companies wanted over $65 million. He walked away from both. On the flight home, he opened a spreadsheet and broke down the raw materials. Aerospace-grade aluminum. Titanium. Copper. Carbon fiber. He priced each on the commodity market. The total came to roughly 2% of what the industry was charging. That gap is what first principles thinking actually looks like. Not "how do we negotiate a better deal." Not "who else sells rockets." Just: what is this thing actually made of, and why does it cost what it costs? The answer was overhead. Legacy processes. Layers of contractors and subcontractors. Margins stacked on margins. Nobody had questioned the price because nobody had questioned the structure. Musk decided to build it himself. The first Falcon 1 exploded 33 seconds after launch. The second made it further but failed to reach orbit. The third exploded too. Three rockets. Three failures. SpaceX was almost out of money. Musk put his last $35 million into the company. If the fourth launch failed, that was it. September 28, 2008. Falcon 1 Flight 4 reached orbit. First privately developed liquid fuel rocket to ever do it. Seven years later, they landed a booster back on Earth for the first time. Now they do it routinely. The cost per launch dropped from $65 million to under $3 million for a reused Falcon 9 booster. Everyone else was reasoning by analogy: rockets are expensive because rockets have always been expensive. Musk reasoned from atoms: rockets are expensive because nobody rebuilt the system from the ground up.

Peak Thinkers

160,557 次观看 • 3 个月前