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The STRC flywheel effect explained by Sam Callahan Buying STRC enables more BTC purchases. This drives up BTC's price and improves Strategy's balance sheet and creditworthiness, allowing for more issuance. It's a powerful cycle humming like never before.

23,625 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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$521.50 per MSTR. This is my current base case for Strategy's price by March 31, 2028, calculated using Strategy Simulator. The calculation is based on 7 input assumptions used to produce the price. I provide each of my assumptions and the rationale for each below. 1) Bitcoin price: $126,000 I chose March 2028 because I assume BTC will return to its old all-time high at or before this date, as it did in March 2024 in the previous cycle. Bull and bear cycles are muting, but also accelerating. The bulk of a bull cycle's gains and losses are now happening well before the post-halving year. Given we're at the cycle 200WMA, the power law floor, and we tend to bottom near midterms, I believe we will make an accelerated return to the previous high within the next 18 months, aided by capital rotation out of AI. This will be followed by months of chop close to that level, like in 2024. 2) mNAV: 2.0 This is in the realm of Strategy's bull market EV mNAV based on data from last cycle. In the particular months when it broke all-time highs, EV mNAV could expand as high as 2.5X. I do not doubt that people will buy in at 1.5X to 2.5X premiums again as BTC continues ripping: in a bull market, FOMO is a helluva drug. 3) Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding: 696.7M Since the start of 2023, Strategy has increased MSTR's share count at a rate of 40.5% per year. I assume this rate continues, moving from 402M shares today to 696M by March 2028. 4) Cost of Capital: 12% I assume Strategy will return STRC to par and begin heavy issuance again in the near future. I predict they will use proceeds from STRC to retire their convertible debt and all other preferred instruments, as was alluded into in Strategy's last earnings call, bringing their overall cost of capital to a blended, uniform 12%, as reflected by the current STRC dividend rate. I don't expect this rate to change soon. 5) The Balance Sheet Senior Claims: $95.79B Bitcoin Reserve: 2,058,409 BTC USD Reserve: $28.79B Here it gets really crazy. We have two clues from management as to how much STRC they'd like to issue at any given time. Firstly, they'd like to target a 90/10 BTC-to-USD split. Secondly, they'd like to target a range 2 to 3 years of USD coverage. Based on these clues, we can calculate how much STRC Strategy will issue based on how big we expect their balance sheet to get - using my previous assumptions of Bitcoin price, mNAV, and share issuance. It gets rather complex after that, since the amount of STRC issued also impacts the balance sheet assets - so it's a reflexive relationship. Running the numbers through Claude, these figures work out to the above. The numbers may seem astronomical now, but I daresay they're likely given how fast Strategy has proven it can accumulate BTC now - even in a bear market. Strategy is becoming a "MonSTR" and will likely be a growing method by which people get their BTC exposure going forward. I expect the business model to grow and continue to be validated (yet misunderstood) with time.

Strategy Simulator

15,833 просмотров • 15 дней назад

🔥THE SIMPLE PATH TO $1,000 MSTR🔥 I modeled Strategy buying BTC at its current 2026 pace of 1,822 BTC per business day all the way through EOY 2027. Assumptions: BTC goes from $77K to $275K ($275k is the Power Law trend price EOY 2027, not moonboi nonsense) Every purchase is funded with 100% STRC issuance STRC costs 11.5% Strategy sells BTC every month to pay the dividend The cool part about this is that it shows what happens if STRC adoption stays flat from here, when in reality it is scaling quickly. Starting point: 843,738 BTC $13.52B preferred $8.21B debt 384.2M diluted shares Result by Dec 2027: Gross BTC bought: 743,246 BTC sold for dividends: 66,942 Net BTC added: 676,304 Ending stack: 1,520,042 BTC CEBE/share: 146K sats → 251K sats CEBE NAV/share: $112.56 → $691.01 If the market keeps paying today’s 1.48x price-to-CEBE multiple, the common stock projects to: $166.63 → $1,022.75 So the “crippling” 11.5% cost of capital ends up forcing monthly BTC sales of only 66.9K BTC total, while the machine inhales 743K BTC gross. Wall Street built a preferred-stock blood bank for a Bitcoin black hole, and the black hole is still hungry. Boom. Not hard. Bitcoin reverts back to trend price and Strategy stays on the pace they're on. $1,000 MSTR. If this math is even directionally right, people are grotesquely underestimating what happens when scarce collateral is funded by infinite boomer paper.

Adam Livingston

54,417 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

How does Strategy navigate a challenging Bitcoin market, return $STRC to par, and continue compounding Bitcoin per share? In our Q2 earnings call, we laid out the strategy, reviewed our financial position and capital-management framework, and answered questions from equity analysts and industry experts. Prepared Remarks 00:00:00 - Welcome 00:01:20 - 843,775 BTC, 203,683 sats per share, $17B raised year to date, and Strategy’s position as the largest institutional holder of Bitcoin 00:03:27 - Q2 balance sheet: $49.7B of digital assets, $3.75B current USD reserve, lower debt, higher preferred equity, and strong stress-case coverage 00:08:57 - Bitcoin KPIs: 4.5% BTC Yield, 29,997 BTC Gain, and ~3.6x growth in Bitcoin per share since 2020 00:12:47 - Q2 execution: higher Bitcoin holdings, lower debt, larger USD reserves, stronger Bitcoin per share, and active capital management 00:15:03 - Strategy as a net buyer of Bitcoin and net issuer of Digital Credit: 48x more BTC bought than sold and 300x more Digital Credit issued than repurchased 00:18:47 - Returning $STRC to $99–$100 through USD reserves, Bitcoin monetization, repurchases, dividend management, and disciplined issuance 00:24:50 - Bitcoin liquidity: why Strategy’s bitcoin purchases and sales are not material to overall Bitcoin trading volume 00:33:03 - Bitcoin as Digital Capital: website metrics, the 200-week moving average, current headwinds, Bitcoin Dominance, banking adoption, and security coordination 00:44:08 - $STRC as flagship Digital Credit: liquidity, lower volatility, market depth, yield, investor base, path to par, and updated credit metrics 01:05:04 - Equity framework: hurdle rate, breakeven rate, floor rate, market skepticism, $MSTR outperformance, franchise advantages, and Strategy’s long-term ambition Q&A 01:19:31 - Why Bitcoin-backed borrowing is not currently the preferred path to build USD reserves 01:23:11 - Why Strategy is consolidating around $STRC instead of creating more instruments or selling volatility 01:40:37 - Equitizing, repaying, or refinancing convertible debt 01:43:18 - Covered calls, cash-secured puts, Digital Credit, Bitcoin as money, and marketing products to the 99% outside Bitcoin 01:59:22 - USD reserve minimums and the path to $STRC trading at par 02:00:55 - Amplification, USD/BTC reserve mix, and countercyclical capital management 02:12:04 - Why Strategy does not intend to issue $STRC below par 02:20:34 - Lessons from 2022 and 2026, tokenized securities, Digital Money, and the June 26 $STRC dislocation 02:34:54 - Closing remarks

Michael Saylor

327,097 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

No, Apyx is not levered $STRC. No, this is not "Luna 2.0". And no, the team is not blindly dumping cash into the market while leaving long-term holders concentrated in $STRC. In Apyx Office Hours #12, we addressed the biggest questions around $STRC volatility, the $apxUSD discount, redemption mechanics, and how the protocol is being managed through stress. A few key points: 🔴 Apyx is designed to avoid bank-run dynamics. Instant NAV redemptions during stress would force the protocol to dump massive amounts of $STRC into a thin, falling order book. 🔴 The team is maintaining a homogeneous asset mix by selling $STRC alongside redemptions, not just spending cash and leaving remaining holders with increased concentration risk. 🔴 Apyx is the largest holder of $STRC, meaning we have a strong incentive to manage liquidity responsibly. 🔴 When $apxUSD is bought back at a discount, that discount can flow back into the protocol as additional overcollateralization, potentially leaving the protocol stronger after volatility subsides. 🔴 The long-term goal remains 10% overcollateralization, a level where events like this become significantly easier to absorb. 🔴 $STRCx, tokenized $STRC, is part of a broader vision for fully onchain reserve management, greater transparency, and eventually 24/7 liquidity. Timestamps: • 02:51 Why STRC sold off and what triggered the volatility • 05:37 What happens inside Apyx when STRC trades below par • 07:36 Why instant NAV redemptions could damage both STRC and Apyx • 09:29 Why the team slows redemptions instead of force-selling reserves • 09:56 How discounted buybacks increase overcollateralization • 10:56 The path toward 10% overcollateralization • 14:39 Exit options for apxUSD holders • 17:22 Why Apyx is not levered STRC • 17:50 SATA rotation and reserve management • 19:12 Apyx vs STRCx and other STRC-related products • 22:23 Balance sheet management during stress • 24:22 Why Apyx is designed to be anti-bank-run • 27:31 Saylor's options to stabilize STRC • 33:58 Why Apyx tokenized reserves through STRCx • 36:10 The vision for fully onchain financial infrastructure Full replay below. 👇

Apyx

30,876 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад