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The top venture funds charging 2.5 and 30 may be a feature, not a bug. Miguel Luina says the expensive managers often earn it net of fees. Miguel Luina, Co-Head of Global Venture Capital at Hamilton Lane: "venture and growth is a very expensive asset class. There's no way... show more

David Weisburd 🚀

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15,785 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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“Venture capital is not an asset class.” Ian Sigalow explains why diversification in venture can actually LOWER returns — and why only a small number of firms consistently matter. One of the clearest explanations of venture power laws and allocator behavior I’ve heard. Full conversation on YouTube.

“Venture capital is not an asset class.” Ian Sigalow explains why diversification in venture can actually LOWER returns — and why only a small number of firms consistently matter. One of the clearest explanations of venture power laws and allocator behavior I’ve heard. Full conversation on YouTube.

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Good Morning Britain

251,559 просмотров • 2 лет назад

Marc Andreessen says the biggest mistake in venture isn’t losing money. It’s missing the outlier. "There are two categories of mistakes: there's the mistake of commission and the mistake of omission. Or the mistake of cost and the mistake of opportunity cost." "The mistake of cost is you invest $10 million in a startup, it fails, you lose the money. That's bad. The mistake of omission is you don't invest in Google and you lose a hundred billion dollars of opportunity cost." "Venture, it's the most polarized possible economic field in which this is true... You're always much more worried about the mistake of omission than you're worried about the mistake of commission." "What we're trying to do is get everybody to constantly have this risk forward — worry about the mistake of omission before the mistake of commission — mindset." Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 with Harry Stebbings

Marc Andreessen says the biggest mistake in venture isn’t losing money. It’s missing the outlier. "There are two categories of mistakes: there's the mistake of commission and the mistake of omission. Or the mistake of cost and the mistake of opportunity cost." "The mistake of cost is you invest $10 million in a startup, it fails, you lose the money. That's bad. The mistake of omission is you don't invest in Google and you lose a hundred billion dollars of opportunity cost." "Venture, it's the most polarized possible economic field in which this is true... You're always much more worried about the mistake of omission than you're worried about the mistake of commission." "What we're trying to do is get everybody to constantly have this risk forward — worry about the mistake of omission before the mistake of commission — mindset." Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸 with Harry Stebbings

a16z

51,356 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

John: What's interesting about Ilya and SSI is that it's a venture-style bet: let the scientists experiment, maybe it will work out, and if it works it's huge. The expected value is high. What's crazy is that it's a venture-style bet at growth scale. And it's a massive amount of capital for something where the consensus is: "If he solves it, it's incredibly valuable, and he leap frogs everything. And if not, maybe he just gets lost in a sea of research and never really produces anything." Also: this type of capital deployment has been happening internally at Google for a long time, but it hasn't been that big of a deal because they have the engine for it.

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277,640 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

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Boring_Business

97,888 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

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Mutant CYT

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The biggest fundraise in venture history is a16z's $15B close this January. It took them 30+ funds and 18 years of compounding track record to get there. Then Andrew Kang watched Tom Lee raise $10B+ in a matter of months, on a thesis that he publicly called out as "retarded", for an asset that subsequently dropped >50% His takeaway: public markets will fund a great thesis at a scale private LPs never will. That's the structural insight behind Robo Strategy ($BOT), and imo one the venture community still hasn't properly digested

The biggest fundraise in venture history is a16z's $15B close this January. It took them 30+ funds and 18 years of compounding track record to get there. Then Andrew Kang watched Tom Lee raise $10B+ in a matter of months, on a thesis that he publicly called out as "retarded", for an asset that subsequently dropped >50% His takeaway: public markets will fund a great thesis at a scale private LPs never will. That's the structural insight behind Robo Strategy ($BOT), and imo one the venture community still hasn't properly digested

José Maria Macedo

20,416 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Q: What are VCs looking for in the companies they fund? Marc Andreessen, founder of Netscape and venture firm a16z, explains in the clip below that venture capitalist business is a game of outliers: “The conventional statistics are that about 200 of the 4,000 venture-fundable companies per year will be funded by a top-tier VC. About 15 of those will someday get to $100MM of revenue, and those 15 will generate something on the order of 97% of all of the returns for the entire category of venture capital in that year.” He continues: “Venture capital is such an extreme feast or famine business. You’re either in one of the 15 or you’re not.” Most VCs are looking for extreme outliers, and when they’re evaluating your startup, they’re asking themselves if this business is one of the 15 businesses that year that will get to $100MM in revenue. One principle Marc believes helps firms invest in outliers is: invest in strength rather than lack of weakness. “The default way to do venture capital is to check boxes: really good founder, really good idea, really good product, really good initial customers. Check, check, check, check. ‘Ok this is reasonable, I’ll put money into it.’ But what you find with those checkbox deals is that they don’t have something that makes them really remarkable and special. They don’t have an extreme strength that makes them an outlier.” The takeaway for founders here is to make sure they highlight to VCs during the funding process that they have a really extreme strength across an important dimension.

Q: What are VCs looking for in the companies they fund? Marc Andreessen, founder of Netscape and venture firm a16z, explains in the clip below that venture capitalist business is a game of outliers: “The conventional statistics are that about 200 of the 4,000 venture-fundable companies per year will be funded by a top-tier VC. About 15 of those will someday get to $100MM of revenue, and those 15 will generate something on the order of 97% of all of the returns for the entire category of venture capital in that year.” He continues: “Venture capital is such an extreme feast or famine business. You’re either in one of the 15 or you’re not.” Most VCs are looking for extreme outliers, and when they’re evaluating your startup, they’re asking themselves if this business is one of the 15 businesses that year that will get to $100MM in revenue. One principle Marc believes helps firms invest in outliers is: invest in strength rather than lack of weakness. “The default way to do venture capital is to check boxes: really good founder, really good idea, really good product, really good initial customers. Check, check, check, check. ‘Ok this is reasonable, I’ll put money into it.’ But what you find with those checkbox deals is that they don’t have something that makes them really remarkable and special. They don’t have an extreme strength that makes them an outlier.” The takeaway for founders here is to make sure they highlight to VCs during the funding process that they have a really extreme strength across an important dimension.

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The biggest scandal is that top Silicon Valley VC firms went to China and “taught them how to do early stage investing.” Venture capital is American Dynamism. “It is the thing that allows America to be dominant in the global economy.” And we just gave it away. “VCs went over there and shared information, shared limited partners, shared all of the aspects and the functions of how you build an incredible legacy defining venture firm.” Twenty years later, China has a full-stack tech ecosystem aligned with the CCP. The real scandal is not just Apple but Silicon Valley itself. Katherine Boyle

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a16z

284,490 просмотров • 1 год назад

🚀 Excited to share that "From Silicon Valley to Riyadh" is now live on stc group and will be on Saudia Airlines starting Oct 1st! 🎬 This documentary is the story of the rise of venture capital as a new asset class in the region and it captures Saudi Arabia’s bold journey towards becoming a global tech hub. Watch the trailer and join the conversation! 🌍 Huge thanks to NCDC, stc group, Red Sea Global, @Impact46, Agent 003 - Chinese Mew King, evision, and Saudi for their support in bringing this vision to life. 🙏

🚀 Excited to share that "From Silicon Valley to Riyadh" is now live on stc group and will be on Saudia Airlines starting Oct 1st! 🎬 This documentary is the story of the rise of venture capital as a new asset class in the region and it captures Saudi Arabia’s bold journey towards becoming a global tech hub. Watch the trailer and join the conversation! 🌍 Huge thanks to NCDC, stc group, Red Sea Global, @Impact46, Agent 003 - Chinese Mew King, evision, and Saudi for their support in bringing this vision to life. 🙏

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I've made a ton of money helping companies implement LLM-as-a-judge evaluations. LLM Judges provide a ton of value. But the hard part is choosing the model to implement the judge. • The family of GPT-5 models is very good, but slow and expensive. • Models like Gemma and Phi are fast and cheap, but not that good. Most of the time, you can only run a percentage of your traffic through the model (otherwise it would be too expensive and slow). But now, there's a better strategy.

I've made a ton of money helping companies implement LLM-as-a-judge evaluations. LLM Judges provide a ton of value. But the hard part is choosing the model to implement the judge. • The family of GPT-5 models is very good, but slow and expensive. • Models like Gemma and Phi are fast and cheap, but not that good. Most of the time, you can only run a percentage of your traffic through the model (otherwise it would be too expensive and slow). But now, there's a better strategy.

Santiago

29,970 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

There's an economics theorem called Alchian-Allen. And it has the very interesting implication that AI labs will be able to charge *higher* margins on their best models as compute gets scarcer. As compute gets more expensive, the cost of running any model goes up. So you might as well pay a bit more to make sure you're running the very best model. Which means the economics of being at the frontier improve, because if you’re not running the very best model, then you’re underutilizing this very precious compute. This pushes the AI model market towards winner-take-all; if you're the best, you can get away with charging an even higher margin. Dylan Patel tells me that we’re already seeing this today: all the revenue in the industry is on the best models. That’s the Alchian-Allen effect. If there’s a cost increase that’s roughly the same for all products, then the relative difference in price between higher and lower quality goods actually goes down. Consumers become relatively more willing to pay for the premium product. And it means that as the compute shortage hits, AI labs can capture more margin - not less, as you might expect - because consumers are choosing premium models more often.

There's an economics theorem called Alchian-Allen. And it has the very interesting implication that AI labs will be able to charge higher margins on their best models as compute gets scarcer. As compute gets more expensive, the cost of running any model goes up. So you might as well pay a bit more to make sure you're running the very best model. Which means the economics of being at the frontier improve, because if you’re not running the very best model, then you’re underutilizing this very precious compute. This pushes the AI model market towards winner-take-all; if you're the best, you can get away with charging an even higher margin. Dylan Patel tells me that we’re already seeing this today: all the revenue in the industry is on the best models. That’s the Alchian-Allen effect. If there’s a cost increase that’s roughly the same for all products, then the relative difference in price between higher and lower quality goods actually goes down. Consumers become relatively more willing to pay for the premium product. And it means that as the compute shortage hits, AI labs can capture more margin - not less, as you might expect - because consumers are choosing premium models more often.

Dwarkesh Patel

323,500 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

ELON: TO ACTUALLY START A COMPANY IS SIMPLER THAN YOU FEAR Elon is stripping away the mystique of the startup world, offering a blunt blueprint for anyone with an engineering mind and the drive to build. He is arguing that the barrier to entry is not as high as the "fear of failure" suggests. By focusing on a compelling prototype and leveraging the world-class venture capital ecosystem in America. Elon believes the next generation of builders can bypass the bureaucracy and start creating value immediately: “If you study engineering and you figure out how to design new things, then it is relatively easy to start a company. You just need to get a few like-minded people with you and then focus on creating a prototype, a compelling prototype as soon as possible. And then there is a strong venture capital industry in this country that will give you funding to take things to the next level. And that is all there is to it. And you might try it a few times, you may or may not succeed, but I think sometimes people fear starting a company too much. You know, what is the worst that could go wrong? You are not going to starve to death. You are not going to die of exposure. What is the worst that could go wrong?” Source: Naruto

ELON: TO ACTUALLY START A COMPANY IS SIMPLER THAN YOU FEAR Elon is stripping away the mystique of the startup world, offering a blunt blueprint for anyone with an engineering mind and the drive to build. He is arguing that the barrier to entry is not as high as the "fear of failure" suggests. By focusing on a compelling prototype and leveraging the world-class venture capital ecosystem in America. Elon believes the next generation of builders can bypass the bureaucracy and start creating value immediately: “If you study engineering and you figure out how to design new things, then it is relatively easy to start a company. You just need to get a few like-minded people with you and then focus on creating a prototype, a compelling prototype as soon as possible. And then there is a strong venture capital industry in this country that will give you funding to take things to the next level. And that is all there is to it. And you might try it a few times, you may or may not succeed, but I think sometimes people fear starting a company too much. You know, what is the worst that could go wrong? You are not going to starve to death. You are not going to die of exposure. What is the worst that could go wrong?” Source: Naruto

Mario Nawfal

205,115 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

If the co-founder of Perplexity, Aravind, can be an Indian guy in the US, why can’t one of you 37.5 crore Gen-Zs build something truly path-breaking? India does not have the luxury of leapfrogging. We need to pole-vault to become a first-world country. India needs Ad-Venture Capital. It needs the industry leaders of India to open their purses. Best practices are a dime a dozen. The Gen-Z of India needs to re-define the world order and bring in next practices. You are only limited by your imagination and ambition. – BRS Working President KTR

If the co-founder of Perplexity, Aravind, can be an Indian guy in the US, why can’t one of you 37.5 crore Gen-Zs build something truly path-breaking? India does not have the luxury of leapfrogging. We need to pole-vault to become a first-world country. India needs Ad-Venture Capital. It needs the industry leaders of India to open their purses. Best practices are a dime a dozen. The Gen-Z of India needs to re-define the world order and bring in next practices. You are only limited by your imagination and ambition. – BRS Working President KTR

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