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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The widespread fear that a prolonged Middle East energy shock will trigger hyperinflation completely misunderstands how the global economy works. Jeffrey Snider points out that massive energy price spikes are inherently recessionary because they brutally destroy consumer demand. As people get crushed at the gas pump, spending on... show more

Mario Nawfal

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47,482 次观看 • 2 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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🚨 The markets are dangerously calm, but the underlying data suggests we are drifting toward massive demand destruction. Global Monetary Expert Jeffrey Snider warns that as energy costs spike, the lack of a robust labor market means consumers will have to cannibalize spending elsewhere just to survive. This shift is fundamentally recessionary, threatening to trigger a wave of layoffs as business margins completely erode. Jeffrey P. Snider

🚨 The markets are dangerously calm, but the underlying data suggests we are drifting toward massive demand destruction. Global Monetary Expert Jeffrey Snider warns that as energy costs spike, the lack of a robust labor market means consumers will have to cannibalize spending elsewhere just to survive. This shift is fundamentally recessionary, threatening to trigger a wave of layoffs as business margins completely erode. Jeffrey P. Snider

Mario Nawfal

54,806 次观看 • 3 个月前

🚨🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump is weaponizing the global energy crisis to bring Beijing to its knees before the first peace deal is even signed. Global Monetary Expert Jeffrey Snider explains that the administration is leveraging China’s weak economy and its total inability to survive a massive oil shock. By delaying key meetings, Trump is negotiating from a position of absolute strength, essentially holding the Chinese "by the balls" until they blink. Jeffrey P. Snider

🚨🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump is weaponizing the global energy crisis to bring Beijing to its knees before the first peace deal is even signed. Global Monetary Expert Jeffrey Snider explains that the administration is leveraging China’s weak economy and its total inability to survive a massive oil shock. By delaying key meetings, Trump is negotiating from a position of absolute strength, essentially holding the Chinese "by the balls" until they blink. Jeffrey P. Snider

Mario Nawfal

51,447 次观看 • 3 个月前

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Why is the Trump administration willing to risk severe short-term economic pain to keep pushing the war in Iran? Jeffrey Snider argues that the U.S. sees the potential long-term gains in the Middle East as outweighing the immediate disruption, betting that a permanent victory will dismantle China's regional influence and secure American dominance for decades to come. Jeffrey P. Snider

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Why is the Trump administration willing to risk severe short-term economic pain to keep pushing the war in Iran? Jeffrey Snider argues that the U.S. sees the potential long-term gains in the Middle East as outweighing the immediate disruption, betting that a permanent victory will dismantle China's regional influence and secure American dominance for decades to come. Jeffrey P. Snider

Mario Nawfal

44,053 次观看 • 3 个月前

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The global financial system is staring down a nightmare scenario as fears grow over strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure and a blockade of the Hormuz and Mandeb straits being sustained. Jeffrey Snider warns that a prolonged disruption could send energy prices soaring and trigger severe currency devaluations across Asia, potentially forcing economies like India into capital controls. "The Indian Rupee hit record low again today. Biggest trade deficit for any April in their history." Jeffrey P. Snider

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The global financial system is staring down a nightmare scenario as fears grow over strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure and a blockade of the Hormuz and Mandeb straits being sustained. Jeffrey Snider warns that a prolonged disruption could send energy prices soaring and trigger severe currency devaluations across Asia, potentially forcing economies like India into capital controls. "The Indian Rupee hit record low again today. Biggest trade deficit for any April in their history." Jeffrey P. Snider

Mario Nawfal

24,289 次观看 • 3 个月前

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Oil's real price is around $50 a barrel. Everything above that is the war. Global monetary expert Jeffrey Snider agrees the Trump administration has worked the oil market, and explains why the "two weeks from a deal" announcements kept coming every two weeks. Traders know that absent this conflict, oil returns to the 50s, so nobody wants to be caught holding long positions when peace breaks out. Where Jeff parts ways is on how much that explains: "That's not manipulation to me. That's the market saying shit's getting bad in the short run, and the inevitable consequences are like every other energy shock that we've seen in history, which is a global recession at the very least." Speculators can be spooked with a headline. The physical barrels still have to show up, and the shape of the futures curve is pricing in something no press release can talk down. Jeffrey P. Snider

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Oil's real price is around $50 a barrel. Everything above that is the war. Global monetary expert Jeffrey Snider agrees the Trump administration has worked the oil market, and explains why the "two weeks from a deal" announcements kept coming every two weeks. Traders know that absent this conflict, oil returns to the 50s, so nobody wants to be caught holding long positions when peace breaks out. Where Jeff parts ways is on how much that explains: "That's not manipulation to me. That's the market saying shit's getting bad in the short run, and the inevitable consequences are like every other energy shock that we've seen in history, which is a global recession at the very least." Speculators can be spooked with a headline. The physical barrels still have to show up, and the shape of the futures curve is pricing in something no press release can talk down. Jeffrey P. Snider

Mario Nawfal

47,152 次观看 • 23 天前

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 A silent dollar shortage is rippling through the global financial system as Middle Eastern oil flows dry up. Jeffrey Snider explains that when the Gulf sells less oil, the crucial circulation of commercial dollars that Asian importers and central banks desperately rely on suddenly vanishes. With Japan already wasting a staggering $75 billion in reserves just to defend a collapsing yen, this massive monetary squeeze is triggering a systemic shock that few nations were prepared for. Jeffrey P. Snider

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 A silent dollar shortage is rippling through the global financial system as Middle Eastern oil flows dry up. Jeffrey Snider explains that when the Gulf sells less oil, the crucial circulation of commercial dollars that Asian importers and central banks desperately rely on suddenly vanishes. With Japan already wasting a staggering $75 billion in reserves just to defend a collapsing yen, this massive monetary squeeze is triggering a systemic shock that few nations were prepared for. Jeffrey P. Snider

Mario Nawfal

26,462 次观看 • 2 个月前

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Wall Street’s current wave of optimism over the U.S.-Iran diplomatic track is completely masking a brutal macroeconomic reality building in the background. Jeffrey Snider warns that while surging stock prices create a cozy narrative that the conflict is wrapping up, dangerous second-order effects are already quietly accumulating. Companies are quietly gearing up to ditch employees to brace for the fallout, with a sharp rise in unemployment probably on the horizon regardless of what Trump does next. Jeffrey P. Snider

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Wall Street’s current wave of optimism over the U.S.-Iran diplomatic track is completely masking a brutal macroeconomic reality building in the background. Jeffrey Snider warns that while surging stock prices create a cozy narrative that the conflict is wrapping up, dangerous second-order effects are already quietly accumulating. Companies are quietly gearing up to ditch employees to brace for the fallout, with a sharp rise in unemployment probably on the horizon regardless of what Trump does next. Jeffrey P. Snider

Mario Nawfal

30,424 次观看 • 2 个月前

Massive geopolitical escalation on Al Jazeera. Israel just intentionally bombed Iran's massive South Pars gas field, crossing an absolute red line. Zionist regime is deliberately trying to trigger a catastrophic regional war that will completely destroy the global energy market.

Massive geopolitical escalation on Al Jazeera. Israel just intentionally bombed Iran's massive South Pars gas field, crossing an absolute red line. Zionist regime is deliberately trying to trigger a catastrophic regional war that will completely destroy the global energy market.

Furkan Gözükara

29,192 次观看 • 4 个月前

🚨🇺🇸 We are officially on track for $5 per gallon gasoline nationwide, and the political fallout will be unlike anything we’ve seen. Global Monetary Expert Jeffrey Snider explains that surging prices are reflecting a harsh economic reality that the White House seems willing to sacrifice for its geopolitical goals. The administration appears to have already written off the midterms, betting that neutralizing the Iranian nuclear threat is worth crashing the domestic economy. Jeffrey P. Snider

🚨🇺🇸 We are officially on track for $5 per gallon gasoline nationwide, and the political fallout will be unlike anything we’ve seen. Global Monetary Expert Jeffrey Snider explains that surging prices are reflecting a harsh economic reality that the White House seems willing to sacrifice for its geopolitical goals. The administration appears to have already written off the midterms, betting that neutralizing the Iranian nuclear threat is worth crashing the domestic economy. Jeffrey P. Snider

Mario Nawfal

45,576 次观看 • 3 个月前

🇺🇸 Countries are dumping U.S. assets to get their hands on dollars, and that's the real inflation threat. Global monetary expert Jeffrey Snider says analysts fixated on oil are watching a symptom while the disease spreads underneath. When the world runs short of dollars, every country sells American assets at once to raise them, which crashes bond prices and spikes yields at the worst possible moment. Break that system and the damage transmits instantly across every asset class, with no lag to prepare for. His warning: the bond market already knows something the stock market hasn't priced in yet. Jeffrey P. Snider

🇺🇸 Countries are dumping U.S. assets to get their hands on dollars, and that's the real inflation threat. Global monetary expert Jeffrey Snider says analysts fixated on oil are watching a symptom while the disease spreads underneath. When the world runs short of dollars, every country sells American assets at once to raise them, which crashes bond prices and spikes yields at the worst possible moment. Break that system and the damage transmits instantly across every asset class, with no lag to prepare for. His warning: the bond market already knows something the stock market hasn't priced in yet. Jeffrey P. Snider

Mario Nawfal

34,240 次观看 • 24 天前

🚨🇺🇸🇨🇳 While China's export sectors appear to be booming by shifting goods from the U.S. to European markets, Jeffrey Snider reveals that the domestic system is choking on a massive real estate bubble and unproductive leverage. Built as a temporary bridge after the 2008 crash, this mountain of bad debt has left the Chinese banking system incredibly vulnerable as a global economic slowdown takes hold. "China got big, but it never got big enough." Jeffrey P. Snider

🚨🇺🇸🇨🇳 While China's export sectors appear to be booming by shifting goods from the U.S. to European markets, Jeffrey Snider reveals that the domestic system is choking on a massive real estate bubble and unproductive leverage. Built as a temporary bridge after the 2008 crash, this mountain of bad debt has left the Chinese banking system incredibly vulnerable as a global economic slowdown takes hold. "China got big, but it never got big enough." Jeffrey P. Snider

Mario Nawfal

36,615 次观看 • 3 个月前

🇨🇳 China is the biggest economic story almost nobody wants to look at too closely. Global monetary expert Jeffrey Snider says the picture is terrible: a banking crisis, an intractable real estate bust, weak household spending, falling property prices, and economic data that looks worse than almost anywhere else. “China has several crises all at the same time.” He points out that Chinese banks are pulling back on lending, except to the biggest state-owned firms and the government itself, while households are not spending because so much of their wealth is trapped in collapsing real estate. Then comes the bond market warning. “China’s government bond curve looks like a recession curve. It is massively steepening from an ultra-low level.” He says front-end rates are near record lows, the 10-year government bond is close to a record low, and China’s demand may have fallen so sharply that it is now changing the global oil picture. The country everyone treats as the engine of global growth may already be flashing recession signals from every direction. Jeffrey P. Snider

🇨🇳 China is the biggest economic story almost nobody wants to look at too closely. Global monetary expert Jeffrey Snider says the picture is terrible: a banking crisis, an intractable real estate bust, weak household spending, falling property prices, and economic data that looks worse than almost anywhere else. “China has several crises all at the same time.” He points out that Chinese banks are pulling back on lending, except to the biggest state-owned firms and the government itself, while households are not spending because so much of their wealth is trapped in collapsing real estate. Then comes the bond market warning. “China’s government bond curve looks like a recession curve. It is massively steepening from an ultra-low level.” He says front-end rates are near record lows, the 10-year government bond is close to a record low, and China’s demand may have fallen so sharply that it is now changing the global oil picture. The country everyone treats as the engine of global growth may already be flashing recession signals from every direction. Jeffrey P. Snider

Mario Nawfal

146,764 次观看 • 1 个月前

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The pause in fighting doubled as an oil market cooldown, and the pattern looks deliberate. Global monetary expert Jeffrey Snider explains how the conflict-ceasefire cycle could be a strategy in itself: fight until energy prices threaten to break things, pause until they settle, then resume grinding down the opposition: "Every time we go through a period of conflict, we're degrading the Iranians further and further." Each round leaves Iran weaker and the oil market calm enough to go again. The clock keeps getting reset, and that may be the whole design. Jeffrey P. Snider

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The pause in fighting doubled as an oil market cooldown, and the pattern looks deliberate. Global monetary expert Jeffrey Snider explains how the conflict-ceasefire cycle could be a strategy in itself: fight until energy prices threaten to break things, pause until they settle, then resume grinding down the opposition: "Every time we go through a period of conflict, we're degrading the Iranians further and further." Each round leaves Iran weaker and the oil market calm enough to go again. The clock keeps getting reset, and that may be the whole design. Jeffrey P. Snider

Mario Nawfal

130,038 次观看 • 28 天前

Everyone is talking about inflation. The Fed is hawking. The ECB is hawking. Financial media is on repeat. But there is a market specifically designed to price inflation expectations, and it is saying something completely different. TIPS breakeven rates, the market's real-time gauge of inflation protection demand, have been falling. Not rising. Falling. Five-year breakevens slid to around 248 basis points last week, back near where they were before the energy shock began, even as oil stayed elevated and central bankers turned more aggressive. In 2022, when inflation was genuinely broad-based, breakevens pushed toward 325 to 350 basis points. This time, the ceiling was 270, and the market has been retreating from it ever since. The bond market is not pricing sustained, widespread inflation. It is pricing a narrow energy impulse, one the market believes will either resolve quickly or destroy enough demand to contain itself. That is 100% against the Fed's hiking thesis.

Everyone is talking about inflation. The Fed is hawking. The ECB is hawking. Financial media is on repeat. But there is a market specifically designed to price inflation expectations, and it is saying something completely different. TIPS breakeven rates, the market's real-time gauge of inflation protection demand, have been falling. Not rising. Falling. Five-year breakevens slid to around 248 basis points last week, back near where they were before the energy shock began, even as oil stayed elevated and central bankers turned more aggressive. In 2022, when inflation was genuinely broad-based, breakevens pushed toward 325 to 350 basis points. This time, the ceiling was 270, and the market has been retreating from it ever since. The bond market is not pricing sustained, widespread inflation. It is pricing a narrow energy impulse, one the market believes will either resolve quickly or destroy enough demand to contain itself. That is 100% against the Fed's hiking thesis.

Jeffrey P. Snider

18,154 次观看 • 1 个月前

Oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz is still running at about a third of pre-war levels. The market is somehow pricing in a surplus. Jeffrey Snider thinks he knows why. I sat down with the macro analyst and eurodollar expert to make sense of what's happening with oil, the global economy, and what comes next. His theory on the price collapse: demand destruction from the energy shock may be deeper than anyone expected. Manufacturers front-loaded months of activity when the war started, building inventory fast before shortages hit. Now that rush is over, and they've hit an air pocket. On China: "Terrible." Banking crisis, real estate bust, consumer spending collapsing. Chinese government bond yields almost back to record lows. He thinks China quietly agreed with Trump after their May summit to hold off on refilling strategic reserves, helping suppress the oil price. Nobody knows what China got in return. His bigger warning has nothing to do with oil. The stock market says the economy is booming. The median age of a first-time homebuyer in America is now 40. He says that gap is exactly what's driving the global wave of socialism, and the political breaking point is getting closer faster than people think. We've been in the downswing of a long economic cycle since August 2007. He thinks the 2030s could mark the turn. The question is whether the politics break first. Great conversation with Jeffrey P. Snider

Oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz is still running at about a third of pre-war levels. The market is somehow pricing in a surplus. Jeffrey Snider thinks he knows why. I sat down with the macro analyst and eurodollar expert to make sense of what's happening with oil, the global economy, and what comes next. His theory on the price collapse: demand destruction from the energy shock may be deeper than anyone expected. Manufacturers front-loaded months of activity when the war started, building inventory fast before shortages hit. Now that rush is over, and they've hit an air pocket. On China: "Terrible." Banking crisis, real estate bust, consumer spending collapsing. Chinese government bond yields almost back to record lows. He thinks China quietly agreed with Trump after their May summit to hold off on refilling strategic reserves, helping suppress the oil price. Nobody knows what China got in return. His bigger warning has nothing to do with oil. The stock market says the economy is booming. The median age of a first-time homebuyer in America is now 40. He says that gap is exactly what's driving the global wave of socialism, and the political breaking point is getting closer faster than people think. We've been in the downswing of a long economic cycle since August 2007. He thinks the 2030s could mark the turn. The question is whether the politics break first. Great conversation with Jeffrey P. Snider

Mario Nawfal

294,235 次观看 • 1 个月前

🇩🇪 German industrial output in 2026 is sitting at 2010 levels, the bottom of the Great Recession. Global monetary expert Jeffrey Snider lays out one of the most alarming charts in the global economy. Europe's industrial powerhouse has been shrinking for the better part of a decade, and the trend refuses to turn: "German industrial production topped out in 2018 and it's just nosedived year after year after year." Sit with that timeline. Sixteen years of progress erased, with the decline starting well before COVID, before the energy crisis, before this war. Europe's engine is stuck in a loop it can't break out of, and nobody in Brussels has an answer. Jeffrey P. Snider

🇩🇪 German industrial output in 2026 is sitting at 2010 levels, the bottom of the Great Recession. Global monetary expert Jeffrey Snider lays out one of the most alarming charts in the global economy. Europe's industrial powerhouse has been shrinking for the better part of a decade, and the trend refuses to turn: "German industrial production topped out in 2018 and it's just nosedived year after year after year." Sit with that timeline. Sixteen years of progress erased, with the decline starting well before COVID, before the energy crisis, before this war. Europe's engine is stuck in a loop it can't break out of, and nobody in Brussels has an answer. Jeffrey P. Snider

Mario Nawfal

58,070 次观看 • 1 个月前

🇮🇷 🇺🇸 The softened rhetoric was an act, staged to hold oil prices down while Washington rebuilt. Global monetary expert Jeffrey Snider never believed the talk of returning to the old status quo was serious. The nuclear program matters, but Hormuz is the issue that has to be settled permanently, because anything less makes the whole campaign a waste of lives and money. He also reads Trump's line about Iran becoming the most prosperous country in the Middle East as aimed at one specific audience: the moderate factions, urging them to break from the IRGC and take the deal. Split the government, then negotiate with whatever's left standing. The market has already voted on how that goes. Jeff points to the $20 gap between today's oil prices and future ones, the clearest signal traders can send that this fight isn't ending anytime soon. Jeffrey P. Snider

🇮🇷 🇺🇸 The softened rhetoric was an act, staged to hold oil prices down while Washington rebuilt. Global monetary expert Jeffrey Snider never believed the talk of returning to the old status quo was serious. The nuclear program matters, but Hormuz is the issue that has to be settled permanently, because anything less makes the whole campaign a waste of lives and money. He also reads Trump's line about Iran becoming the most prosperous country in the Middle East as aimed at one specific audience: the moderate factions, urging them to break from the IRGC and take the deal. Split the government, then negotiate with whatever's left standing. The market has already voted on how that goes. Jeff points to the $20 gap between today's oil prices and future ones, the clearest signal traders can send that this fight isn't ending anytime soon. Jeffrey P. Snider

Mario Nawfal

33,960 次观看 • 23 天前

The oil curve is sending a warning most people are not reading correctly... Jeffrey Snider, one of the sharpest macro analysts tracking this conflict, breaks it down for me: WTI September is at $92, Brent over $100, but out to December the price drops to $80, and by June next year it falls to $72 or $73. That isn't the market saying this ends soon. That is the market saying the near-term scramble for oil is real, and demand is going to collapse under the weight of it. "The longer this goes on, the chances of something actually breaking in the real economy just go way up, and it goes up not linearly, it goes up exponentially." On the oil price manipulation theory, that Trump is feeding false optimism to algorithms that trade 70% of oil futures, Snider is no longer skeptical: "You got to give the Trump administration credit for their political objectives, they have every incentive to make sure oil prices don't get out of control." On Iran's restraint: both sides are going incrementally because neither wants to say screw it and go all out. But eventually, someone usually does... Great chatting with Jeffrey P. Snider

The oil curve is sending a warning most people are not reading correctly... Jeffrey Snider, one of the sharpest macro analysts tracking this conflict, breaks it down for me: WTI September is at $92, Brent over $100, but out to December the price drops to $80, and by June next year it falls to $72 or $73. That isn't the market saying this ends soon. That is the market saying the near-term scramble for oil is real, and demand is going to collapse under the weight of it. "The longer this goes on, the chances of something actually breaking in the real economy just go way up, and it goes up not linearly, it goes up exponentially." On the oil price manipulation theory, that Trump is feeding false optimism to algorithms that trade 70% of oil futures, Snider is no longer skeptical: "You got to give the Trump administration credit for their political objectives, they have every incentive to make sure oil prices don't get out of control." On Iran's restraint: both sides are going incrementally because neither wants to say screw it and go all out. But eventually, someone usually does... Great chatting with Jeffrey P. Snider

Mario Nawfal

301,317 次观看 • 24 天前

The Iran oil shock is quietly breaking China's economy and could trigger China's next economic crisis. Oil prices have surged nearly 45% since the Iran conflict escalated and the real economic fallout is just beginning. While headlines focus on geopolitics, the biggest hidden loser is China. In this video, I break down how rising energy costs are hitting China at its weakest point: thin margins, weak demand, and an export model that depends on cheap production. With over a quarter of manufacturers already losing money and wages stagnating, this shock could trigger a much deeper economic spiral. I also explain why the U.S., thanks to energy independence, is far more insulated and how this creates an asymmetric impact that could reshape the global economic balance.

The Iran oil shock is quietly breaking China's economy and could trigger China's next economic crisis. Oil prices have surged nearly 45% since the Iran conflict escalated and the real economic fallout is just beginning. While headlines focus on geopolitics, the biggest hidden loser is China. In this video, I break down how rising energy costs are hitting China at its weakest point: thin margins, weak demand, and an export model that depends on cheap production. With over a quarter of manufacturers already losing money and wages stagnating, this shock could trigger a much deeper economic spiral. I also explain why the U.S., thanks to energy independence, is far more insulated and how this creates an asymmetric impact that could reshape the global economic balance.

Ken Cao-The China Crash Chronicle

10,573 次观看 • 4 个月前

🇺🇸 Only 20% of stocks have beaten the S&P 500 in ten weeks, and one sentence from the Energy Secretary just flipped the entire market. Fund manager Thomas Hayes says the market spent two and a half months quietly pricing in a prolonged energy crisis, and the reversal happening right now is the tell that the fear is breaking. "The Dow's up. Nasdaq is down. This is a diametric reversal from anything we've seen in the last ten weeks. This is a sign of health and near-term resolution." The real economy is waking back up, and most investors are still staring at the wrong headline. Thomas J. Hayes

🇺🇸 Only 20% of stocks have beaten the S&P 500 in ten weeks, and one sentence from the Energy Secretary just flipped the entire market. Fund manager Thomas Hayes says the market spent two and a half months quietly pricing in a prolonged energy crisis, and the reversal happening right now is the tell that the fear is breaking. "The Dow's up. Nasdaq is down. This is a diametric reversal from anything we've seen in the last ten weeks. This is a sign of health and near-term resolution." The real economy is waking back up, and most investors are still staring at the wrong headline. Thomas J. Hayes

Mario Nawfal

81,803 次观看 • 2 个月前