Loading video...

Video Failed to Load

Go Home

//The Wire//2000Z March 3, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: DRONE AND MISSILE ATTACKS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERSIAN GULF. SAUDI FORCES DEPLOY TO QUELL RIOTS IN BAHRAIN. MAJOR OIL FACILITIES SHUT DOWN THROUGHOUT MIDDLE EAST DUE TO STRIKES. ISRAEL LAUNCHES GROUND INVASION OF LEBANON.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: The Gulf...

20,507 views • 3 months ago •via X (Twitter)

0 Comments

No comments available

Comments from the original post will appear here

Related Videos

//The Wire//2300Z March 16, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: IRANIAN STRIKES AND AMERICAN BOMBINGS REMAIN CONSTANT AS GULF STATES MORE OPENLY CENSOR DAMAGE REPORTS.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Persian Gulf: Over the weekend Iranian strikes on Dubai have continued, with the fuel point at the airport being hit early this morning. The Fujairah Oil Industry Zone in the UAE was also hit, and burned throughout the day. American positions in Baghdad have also been under constant attack over the past few days, to include the first documented operational use of an FPV drone for an attack, which was conducted at Camp Victory a few days ago by pro-Iran militias in and around the capital region. Ali Al Salem Airbase in Kuwait was hit again overnight, with the Italians reporting one of their hangars (and the MQ-9 housed within) being destroyed. -HomeFront- California: Last night a shooting was reported at a Spring Break event in Santa Monica. Two people were wounded during the shooting, both of which suffered non-life-threatening wounds. The suspect was identified as Jaysawn Williams, who was arrested after being wounded in the attack. Analyst Comment: Despite initial media reports implying terrorism, right now this shooting looks like a gang shooting, rather than a more deliberate attack. However the investigation continues, and more details are expected as victim testimony becomes more public. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The war in the Middle East has shifted into the phase where numbers alone do not accurately convey the situation. Perhaps this was never the case, however at this point, describing the number of bombs dropped and drones launched is not exactly representative of how the war is going. For example, if the reports by various nations in the Middle East are accurate (which at this point is not a guarantee) the total number of drone and missile attacks by Iran has decreased. According to the UAE (which has been caught manipulating their data), only 6 drones attacks were reported last night...but the effectiveness of these strikes has sharply increased. That "6 drone" figure might be misleading or it may be ignoring the Iranian strikes that were successful. Either way, at least two drone strikes were incredibly effective last night, with one direct hit being reported on the fuel point at the Dubai airport, and another at the Fujairah Oil complex. At the northern end of the Persian Gulf, at least the Kuwaitis are being honest about their failed interceptions, with their latest report admitting that of the four drones launched at their nation last night, they only intercepted one. Considering this development, two polar opposite analytical positions can easily be arrived at, depending on how one reads the raw data. It's possible that the Iranians are decreasing the numbers of drones launched because they are running out or American targeting has been effective. Or, one can surmise that the Iranians are now able to conserve their resources, because they now have their targets dialed in and their Command and Control (C2) systems have now recovered from the decapitation strikes that started the war. Either theory will be largely opinion based, as the intelligence gaps regarding the war are very significant at this point. In war, nothing is certain, and right now all sides are attempting to over-estimate their gains, and downplay their losses. As unfortunate as it may be to observe, in a war where the grand strategy of all belligerents is based on hubris, the scale often tips in favor of the defender, or at least the fight for the attacker becomes much harder than it otherwise would have been. This would be wise to consider as the war enters it's third week, and neither American bases in the region nor the merchant vessels in the Strait appear to be granted any reprieve anytime soon. Analyst: S2A1 Research: Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

S2 Underground

10,331 views • 3 months ago

//The Wire//2300Z May 08, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: UNITED ARAB EMIRATES CONDUCTS STRIKES IN IRAN, IRANIAN RETALIATION STRIKES TARGET DUBAI AND SHIPPING IN THE STRAIT. USA INCREASES TARGETING AND INTERDICTION OPERATIONS IN THE GULF OF OMAN. MAJOR FIRE REPORTED AT REFINERY IN LOUISIANA.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Overnight, multiple targeting efforts took place in the Strait of Hormuz. The United Arab Emirates conducted multiple airstrikes in Iran, targeting facilities on Qeshm Island as well as the port of Bandar Abbas. This attack was reportedly conducted in conjunction with the United States (or with some US support), and resulted in Iranian counterattacks on the UAE as several drones and missile attacks were reported in Dubai. Officials did not state how many munitions hit their targets, however "3 moderate injuries" were reported on the ground in the UAE as a result of this first wave of attacks. As the fighting continued throughout the night, the UAE traded bombs and missiles with Iran for a few hours, and several merchant ships in the Strait were also struck. American warships struck a total of three merchant vessels throughout the region (possibly to include in the Strait itself) overnight, all of which were empty tanker vessels attempting to run the American blockade to onload a cargo of oil from Iranian ports. Similarly, the Iranians also reportedly hit several merchant vessels, though which ones remain unknown at the moment. After the shooting subsided in the early hours of this morning, the Iranians seized a tanker in the Gulf of Oman. The M/T OCEAN KOI (IMO: 9255933) was boarded by the IRGCN for allegedly "taking advantage of regional conditions to damage and disrupt Iran’s oil exports and the interests of the Iranian nation". Analyst Comment: It's not clear as to why this vessel was boarded, as this is one of Iran's own shadow tankers which has been on the sanctions list for many years, and has previously helped export Iran's oil in violation of international sanctions. Her most recent name is the M/V JIN LI and last night she was inbound to the Persian Gulf to take on a cargo of Iranian oil at Iran's own ports. At the moment, the best guess is that the Iranians might have discovered that the oil was going to an unauthorized end customer and thus conducted the boarding. However it's also possible that during the events of the night, the Iranians needed to assert dominance, so they took the only ship that was within their reach, which happened to be one of their own. -HomeFront- Louisiana: This afternoon a major fire was reported at the PBF Chalmette Refinery. The cause of the fire has not been released, and as of this report firefighters are attempting to bring the fire under control. This facility is a comparatively smaller refinery that produces almost 200,000 bbl/d and in 2021, $550 million was invested in this facility to covert an older unit to produce diesel. Analyst Comment: Fires at refineries are more common than one might think, but this is the second fire at a refinery in the same area in a week's time. A few miles to the west, Shell reported a fire at their Norco facility last week, which was the result of a gas leak. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: At this point, it is hard to argue that the ceasefire is still in effect in the Middle East, but that definition probably doesn't matter at this point. Over the past 48 hours, multiple offensive actions have taken place throughout the region. Nevertheless, as CJCS Gen. Caine said yesterday, these attacks are "below the threshold" for the United States to consider the ceasefire violated. The effect of this policy is two-fold: For one, gas prices don't spike by admitting the war is back on, and two, Oman and the UAE (the nations getting hit by the Iranians) are rather slighted by attacks on their homeland not being considered serious enough to warrant US intervention. From the perspective of the Emirs, their entire motivation for siding with the US and allowing the use of their territory...is for their own defense. Their oil terminals (the only reason for their wealth), getting hit by the Iranians, and the US saying that this is not important enough for us to even acknowledge it as a ceasefire violation (much less retaliate), is not going over super well, and was probably the motivating factor for the UAE conducting strikes in Iran overnight. Analyst: S2A1 Research: Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

S2 Underground

10,859 views • 1 month ago

//The Wire//2300Z March 5, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MERCHANT VESSEL STRUCK BY EXPLOSIVE FASTBOAT IN PERSIAN GULF. DRONE AND MISSILE ATTACKS REMAIN CONSTANT AMONG GULF STATES. DRONE STRIKES REPORTED IN AZERBAIJAN.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Persian Gulf: Attacks on merchant shipping continue as an oil tanker that was anchored off the coast of Kuwait was struck by Iranian forces overnight. The vessel has been identified as the M/V SONAGOL NAMIBE, an oil tanker that is currently anchored in the group of vessels that are waiting for the risks in the Strait to subside. Analyst Comment: Turns out, in such a small waterway, it's just as dangerous to remain at anchor. This strike is also different from the rest, as video evidence confirms that this was the result of a (possibly remote-controlled) Iranian fastboat conducting a strike on the vessel. For context, the Iranian Navy is split into two parts, the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (IRIN), which is the more traditional navy comprised of Line ships, and the Islamic Republic Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN). The majority of the IRIN has mostly been sunk over the past few days, however the smaller "speedboat navy" of the IRGC-N was created solely for the purpose of conducting asymmetric warfare, and is likely the culprit of this attack. As there are a few dozen other tankers parked immediately adjacent to the one that was struck, it is likely that more of these attacks will take place, as long as the IRGCN is able to. Iran: Within the mainland itself, the large-scale bombing of Tehran and other major population centers continues alongside the bombing of most military bases throughout the country. Yesterday Israeli forces shot down an Iranian YAK-130 training aircraft, which had somehow managed to get airborne, and drone attacks launched by the Iranians continue as before. Azerbaijan: Iranian forces launched a drone attack on the airport in the border town of Nakhchivan. The main terminal was hit by Shahed-type drones, and another undisclosed location in Shekarabad was also struck. Analyst Comment: This is noteworthy as Azerbaijan was one of Iran's only regional allies. As a result, Azerbaijan has demanded an apology, and diplomatic relations are not great as two people were killed during the strikes on the airport. Officially, the Iranians have denied that they carried out the attack, stating that it was a false flag incident. -HomeFront- Utah: Overnight a killing spree was reported spanning multiple counties, involving multiple casualties. The incident began after an assailant murdered an elderly victim in Lyman. The attacker then stole her vehicle, and traveled to a hiking trailhead in Wayne County, where he murdered two women on the trail. This prompted a state-wide manhunt, which located the suspect after he had fled the scene, with the assailant eventually being located and arrested. As the suspect was arrested over the border in the state of Colorado, he has been identified as Ivan Miller. Analyst Comment: At the moment, this appears to be a series of random murders, as none of the victims (nor the perpetrator) appears to have any connection to any sort of motive, other than random mental illness. More details are expected to emerge as the investigation continues. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: European evacuations of European citizens from the Middle East continues, with Spain dedicating military assets to getting some of their citizens out of the region over night. So far, zero Americans have been evacuated via American military means (which have the capabilities to fly when civilian aircraft cannot), and any American who has managed to get out has done so via commercial means. Commercial flights out of Dubai and Riyadh are occurring, they're just slow due to the sheer number of people trying to leave and the few aircraft landing between drone attacks. As of this afternoon, D+6 (six days after this war began) the drone attacks have remained constant. All Gulf States have been publishing daily engagement numbers, and so far, the drone attacks have not really dwindled that much, despite assurances by many that the attacks have stopped. The drone attacks have not ceased...they are simply being intercepted out over the water. Some drones are making it through defenses to strike targets, with limited success. This afternoon several hotels were struck by Iranian drones in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, which has served to remind everyone involved that the threats are real and persistent. Either way, drone sightings and close-in interceptions are enough to ground aircraft for a while, further adding to the evacuation bottlenecks that are stacking up around the region. Regarding timelines, yesterday evening the estimates for the length of the operation have changed again, with SECWAR Hegseth stating that the operation is now planned to take an uncertain amount of time, potentially up to 8 weeks. The Secretary of War also stated that the United States is planned to achieve uncontested airspace in the skies over Iran within a few days, possibly up to a week. Either way, this confirms that after nearly a week, the airspace is still somewhat contested, despite the overwhelming large bombing raids witnessed so far. Analyst: S2A1 Research: Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

S2 Underground

12,646 views • 3 months ago

//The Wire//1800Z March 2, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: TERROR ATTACK STRIKES TEXAS. GULF WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST AS IRANIAN FORCES STRIKE AMERICAN BASES AND OIL FIELDS. MULTIPLE AMERICAN AIRCRAFT SHOT DOWN IN FRIENDLY FIRE INCIDENTS. QATAR SHOOTS DOWN TWO IRANIAN FIGHTERS OVER PERSIAN GULF.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: The Gulf War continues to expand, with nearly every nation throughout the region being involved as airstrikes and drone/missile attacks remain regular around the clock. Kuwait: This morning, three separate American F-15E's were shot down due to alleged friendly fire incidents after allegedly being engaged by Kuwaiti air defense systems. All six pilots and weapons officers ejected and were rescued from the desert by Kuwaiti forces. Analyst Comment: This situation was rather dicey as local Kuwaitis on the ground initially thought that the Americans parachuting down were Iranians. This is possibly due to the American parachutes from the ACES II ejection seats being in the standard colors of Orange, White, and Green (which has been a standard for a long time). Unfortunately, this also looks very similar to the colors of the Iranian flag as it's descending on a residential neighborhood. As a result, several Kuwaitis responded to the crash site with weapons drawn, until it became clear that they were Americans. After the Americans were identified, they were protected and rendered aid until they were recovered safely back to American lines. Saudi Arabia: Most of the targeting efforts by the Iranians have focused on hitting oil infrastructure. This morning, the Ras Tanura refinery was been shut down completely following Iranian drone strikes, which halts roughly 16% of Saudi Arabia's total oil production capacity. Qatar: All Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) production has been halted due to Iranian strikes, and the airport in Doha remains closed at the moment. This morning Qatari forces downed two Iranian Su-24 fighters which were sortied to conduct targeting within their nation. Analyst Comment: If this report is accurate, this would be the first indication that the Iranians still maintain some limited air combat power, even though the runways at most of their airports have been cratered. UAE: In the Emirates, Iranian forces have been hitting Dubai and Abu Dhabi hard over the past two days. Power plants, oil terminals, and other energy infrastructure have been targeted, along with more military targets. The French Naval Base in Abu Dhabi was hit by Iranian munitions, and the fires have been burning overnight. Bahrain: The semi-former headquarters of the US Navy's 5th Fleet has been heavily damaged, with a significant portion of the base being completely destroyed. This morning, Iranian forces struck an American strategic oil tanker, the M/T STENA IMPERATIVE, as she was sitting in port. Cyprus: The British Airbase at Akrotiri Airport has been targeted by Iranian missiles/drones several times over the past two days, with heavy smoke being reported at the installation sporadically yesterday afternoon. Israel: Substantial targeting efforts continue by the Iranians, with many ballistic missile strikes being carried out overnight. Rocket attacks by Hezbollah cells in Lebanon continue, with the IDF conducting several airstrikes in downtown Beirut in response yesterday evening. Regarding civilian infrastructure in the Middle East, most major airports throughout the entire region are closed for flights, most notably Kuwait International, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Bahrain. Right now, the main logistical hub for citizens fleeing the region is Riyadh, however the Saudis stated overnight that King Khalid International Airport was targeted by Iran. The ballistic missiles were successfully intercepted, but the window for evacuations throughout much of the region is probably closed for a while. Some airlines in Dubai are attempting to re-commence evacuation flights this evening, pending any attacks on the airport. Concerning American casualties so far, four American service members have been killed as a result of Iranian strikes throughout the region. Pakistan: Attacks at the US Consulate in Karachi have escalated as rioters have began engaging the Marines inside the compound with small arms. Pakistanis have taken pot-shots from pistols at the Consulate throughout the day, and the Marine Security Detachment has been able to hold the compound so far. -HomeFront- Texas: Saturday night, a terror attack was reported at a bar in Austin, which resulted in a mass casualty event. One gunman entered Buford's Bar on 6th street, and began shooting the patrons inside, before being killed during the attack. The suspect has been identified as Ndiaga Diagne, a naturalized US citizen originally from Senegal. Concerning casualties, two fatalities have been reported, along with 14x wounded as a result of the attack. Analyst Comment: Right now most assumptions regarding this attack jump to the conclusion that this individual was one of the infamous Iranian "sleeper cell" agents that has been "activated" in response to events in the Middle East. At this moment, the evidence points to this being a lone-wolf attack as the suspect was wearing a pro-Islam sweatshirt during the attack, and underneath he was also wearing a shirt portraying the flag of Iran. Beyond these basic details, it will be crucial for the investigation to determine whether this guy was a random lone-wolf, or if there was some prior communication/coordination regarding this attack. In short, we don't know if he was communicating with Iranians or not, but he very likely conducted the attack due to events in the Middle East. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Right now, there is a lot of confusion pertaining to the messaging by American officials regarding this war. On the one hand, the United States has stated frequently that most Iranian military infrastructure has been decimated, but on the other hand everyone can see the drones hitting targets rather effectively, so what gives? Per long-standing doctrine, Iranian military leadership has substantially expanded on the idea of delegating authority to lower and lower levels of command, so as to ensure effective combat operations in the event that decapitation strikes took out most of their senior leadership. The Iranian's have been planning for this eventuality for some time, and thus their military infrastructure can be described in a single word: Redundancy. It is this theory that is being proven somewhat correct right now, as Iranian forces have been able to not just continue strikes, but launch increasingly more significant missile barrages throughout the Middle East...after most of their military leadership has been killed. As a result, even the effective decapitation strikes during the initial phases of the war, while a great success, were still not enough to stop the effectiveness of the command and control efforts at lower levels. Even going back to the 1980's Iran has been the textbook example of how cutting off the head of the snake, won't result in the body giving up the fight as quickly as the United States would hope. How long the Iranians can keep this up, is the 64-million-dollar question, but for now, killing the entire upper echelon of Iranian military leadership won't do much to reduce combat effectiveness in the short term. The missiles and drones that continue to fly by the minute are evidence of this doctrine, which continue to seriously threaten both civilian and military infrastructure throughout the region. All of this is supported by recent comments made by President Trump, confirming that this operation could take up to a month. Over 900x sorties have been conducted by US forces so far, and the level-bombers which have been forward deployed probably haven't even begun the large-scale bombings yet. As with all military operations, time will tell how it goes, and in this case the enduring question is how much damage Iran can do, as their scorched-earth campaign continues throughout the region. Analyst: S2A1 Research: Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

S2 Underground

17,121 views • 3 months ago

//The Wire//2300Z March 4, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: GULF WAR CONTINUES AS ALLIED RADAR INSTALLATIONS TARGETED BY IRANIAN FORCES. US NAVY SINKS IRANIAN FRIGATE OFF COAST OF SRI LANKA.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: The large-scale bombing of targets within Iran continues, with hundreds of bombs being dropped day and night. Around the region, overnight satellite imagery confirmed that Iranian forces have successfully struck multiple American Air Defense installations. Concerning American battle damage, the following radar arrays have been damaged or destroyed since the conflict began. Qatar: A/N FPS-132 Block 5 array - Hit, unknown damage. Kuwait: 3x unknown radomes destroyed. Bahrain: 2x AN/GSC-52B radomes destroyed. UAE: THAAD battery at Al-Ruwais confirmed struck, damage unknown. Saudi Arabia: A/N TPY-2 radar site (used with the THAAD system) struck at Prince Sultan Airbase. Jordan: THAAD battery at Muwaffaq Salti Airbase possibly struck, unknown damage. Analyst Comment: These radar arrays are not tiny fire-control systems mounted on a HMMWV, these are major strategic assets for air defense throughout the hemisphere, not just the Middle East. The FPS-132 alone costs over a billion dollars and there are only six of these sites in the entire world. Similarly, there are only nine THAAD batteries in existence globally, and the Iranians just hit one (possibly two) of them with a munition that cost about $30k each. Strait of Hormuz: The war on the high seas continues as multiple commercial vessels have been struck by drones overnight. The UK Maritime Trade Operations center has reported a total of four commercial vessels being hit with unknown munitions over the past 24 hours, sustaining unknown damage. Two container ships, a BCC, and a tanker vessel were all hit or targeted by unknown munitions. Analyst Comment: Merchant traffic within the Strait is mostly at a standstill, as nobody wants to run the the gauntlet and risk hundreds of millions of dollars if something goes wrong. At this present time, drone and missile attacks are effective enough to prevent any large merchant vessel from transiting the waterway. Turkey: This morning the Turkish Defense Ministry stated that an Iranian ballistic missile was shot down in their nation. The missile was shot down by a US Navy vessel in the Eastern med, and the debris landed near the town of Dörtyol in the southeastern region of the country. Lebanon: The Israeli ground invasion continues, with the IDF ordering the evacuation of Lebanese citizens to north of the Litani River. Roughly 15% of the land mass of Lebanon has been ordered to evacuate by Israel, as the IDF continues pushing north. Indian Ocean: This morning the US Navy torpedoed an Iranian frigate off the coast of Sri Lanka. The IRIS DENA was sunk by an American submarine with the crew abandoning ship overnight. The Sri Lankan Navy has conducted rescue operations of about 30 survivors, with about half of the crew remaining missing. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Regarding the evacuations of Americans from the Middle East, so far the situation is complicated. The US State Department has provided emergency phone numbers for Americans stranded overseas to call, but reports are mixed regarding Americans actually being evacuated. Commercial flights remain sporadic, and most Americans stranded in the region are being told to sit tight until flights are available. Airspace closures remain throughout the entire region, and most airlines are attempting to fly out whenever they can. Dubai is the world's busiest airport, and so far it's been averaging a few dozen flights in and out each day, when previously the average was over a thousand flights per day. The smaller airport in Muscat, Oman is the next-closest hub from which evacuations are occurring, however it's nearly all private aircraft at this point since all commercial options have been booked. Considering the damage that has likely been done to American radar sites around the region, if it is true that Early Warning capabilities have been degraded as a result of Iranian strikes, more serious targeting efforts could continue over the next few days. Although, the systems that have been hit are mostly for high-altitude ballistic missile threats, and not the smaller drones that are threatening the Gulf States most effectively at the moment. This is the fundamental nature of this war: Every missile interception has to succeed every single time, but the Iranians only have to be successful once to cause enough uncertainty both with maritime shipping and civil aviation, to cause problems. Analyst: S2A1 Research: Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

S2 Underground

10,082 views • 3 months ago

//The Wire//2300Z April 2, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: COLONIAL PIPELINE SHUT DOWN BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT AFTER SUSTAINING DAMAGE IN GEORGIA. STRATEGIC BUILDUP CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST AS UNITED STATES BEGINS TARGETING CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE WITHIN IRAN.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: American targeting within Iran continues as Iranian forces continue to hit U.S. bases throughout the region. American bases in Kuwait have been hammered over the past few days, with ballistic missile strikes being reported at Camp Arifjan and Ali Al Salem Airbase. Within Iran, this morning the United States began more deliberate attacks on infrastructure which are not solely military targets. The B1 bridge west of Tehran was destroyed, which was not yet opened (it was still under construction) but would have been the largest bridge in the country and the main link between Tehran and Karaj. Analyst Comment: The Iranians are very likely to retaliate by hitting one (or several) critical bridges throughout the region, on the south side of the Persian Gulf. The King Fahd Bridge linking Bahrain with the mainland was already struck by the Iranians on the opening days of the war (when Saudi forces crossed the bridge to put down the Shia uprising/protests in Manama) so if they wanted to hit it again they've already demonstrated that they have the ability to do so. Iraq: This morning the US State Department issued another travel alert, specifically warning that attacks may escalate over the next 24-48 hours. Analyst Comment: This is probably in response to the kidnapping of American journalist Shelly Kittleson by Kataib Hezbollah two days ago (who still remains missing in Baghdad) but also the deteriorating security situation nationwide, which is being compounded by various Iraqi militia groups beginning to mobilize against American forces in the region. More strategically, the situation is Iraq has deteriorated to it's lowest point in years, and there is now a very real risk of some kind of insurgent uprising coming about, due to the opposing militant groups which have been stirred up by the situation in Iran. This will be an important situation to monitor over the next few weeks. India: Following weeks of petroleum disruptions nationwide, the first oil tanker arrived in Vadinar overnight, completing India's resumption of purchasing crude oil from Iran, which was originally halted in 2019. Analyst Comment: India had previously halted the purchase of Iranian oil due to American sanctions, but due to the war in the Middle East resulting in the US waiving oil export sanctions, India has resumed the purchase of oil from Iran. Indian media reports that the transaction was carried out in Chinese Yuan. -HomeFront- Georgia: Yesterday evening Colonial Pipeline's Line 1 was shut down after sustaining damage during drilling operations. The pipeline was shut down for several hours while repairs were conducted, and as of this morning Line 1 is fully functional. Analyst Comment: While this incident was not the result of malign action and it was resolved quickly, this was still a big deal. This is the largest gasoline pipeline network in the United States, and provides the vast majority of gasoline to the east coast. Considering the recent volatility in the oil markets, this outage occurring right before a major holiday weekend for travel was exceptionally poor timing. Washington D.C. - Several leadership changes have taken place this afternoon. Attorney General Pam Bondi has been relieved of her duties, with her Deputy Todd Blanche taking over her roles until a replacement is found. At the Pentagon, General Randy George was requested to take an early retirement, effective immediately, stepping down from his role as Army Chief of Staff. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: President Trump's address to the nation last night concluded without any major announcement of policy changes, and the speech was neither an announcement of the end of the war nor of any substantial increase of combat operations. Timeline wise, President Trump stated that the conflict will last 2-3 more weeks, though no official exit plan was conveyed. More generally, speeches by political officials are not usually reflective of the tactical situation on the ground and as it stands right now, the raw information available to the public continues to indicate another surge of military hardware and resources into the Middle East. Yesterday CENTCOM published their list of assets deployed to support Operation Epic Fury, which included many resources which have recently arrived in theater, such as the EA-37B COMPASS CALL platform (which is used for electronic warfare). This platform arrived on station yesterday, having been observed at Mildenhall Air Base on her way to the Middle East two days ago. Aircraft movements such as this one (and others) continue to indicate that operations are ramping up...not down. National-level reconnaissance and EW assets being moved into theater at this point (conducting their first combat deployment a full month after the war began), is not an indicator of the war coming to a close. Analyst: S2A1 Research: Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

S2 Underground

10,663 views • 2 months ago

//The Wire//2300Z March 6, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: GULF WAR CONTINUES AS THE WAR OF LOGISTICS BECOMES PARAMOUNT. AMERICAN BASES THROUGHOUT MIDDLE EAST CONTINUE TO BE TARGETED BY IRANIAN FORCES. TERRORISM CONCERNS REMAIN IN THE HOMELAND AS THE WAR CONTINUES.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Persian Gulf: The war continues as before, with Iranian drone attacks remaining constant throughout the region. Dubai alone has been averaging around a hundred munitions being observed each day, nearly all of which are intercepted. Flights out of Dubai and Abu Dhabi have been able to increase somewhat, as Iranian drone attacks have shifted to targeting American military installations and petroleum infrastructure around the region. Camp Arifjan and Ali Al Salem Airbase in Kuwait have been primary targets for Iranian missiles/drones, with significant targeting efforts taking place over the past 24 hours. Concerning American targeting efforts, bombings continue in Tehran and other major cities. Most military infrastructure throughout Iran has been destroyed, and President Trump has stated that no deal is sought, as only unconditional surrender is demanded. Analyst Comment: This has been the blanket statement since the start of the war, but it's not entirely clear as to whom Iranian military forces are supposed to surrender to. Right now, any Iranian who wishes to stop fighting doesn't really have any way to declare that intent. As the United States and Israel rather confidently keep assassinating any sort of political leadership within Iran, it's not known who would even have the authority to sign surrender papers at this point. -HomeFront- USA: Various counterterrorism and law enforcement agencies have been progressively increasing security measures at critical sites around the nation, due to the increased potential for terrorism to take place within the United States as a result of the conflict in the Middle East. NORTHCOM has raised the force protection posture at most North American military installations, with the Trusted Traveler program being temporarily halted while terrorism concerns are elevated. Analyst Comment: Right now, the risk of Iranian government-sponsored combatants engaging targets within the homeland is fairly low. However, due to the prevalence of 5th Generation Warfare being common in the modern world, what is much more likely is the co-opting of the Gulf War by other unrelated groups for their own gain. In short, there probably aren't that many Iranian sleeper agents in the US, but there are dozens of other groups seeking to make a name for themselves, or otherwise hijack national attention for their own gain. As always, predicting when and where security threats will pop up is hard, so increased vigilance is recommended. Washington D.C. - DHS Secretary Noem has been transitioned to a new role, with Senator Markwayne Mullin from Oklahoma being slated to replace her within the next few days. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Of note, the satellite imagery company Planet Labs has imposed a 96-hour-delay policy with their satellite imagery, so as to prevent their imagery from being used for targeting purposes. As this is an American company, this makes perfect sense at first, as the modern world of commercial satellite imagery within the civilian space has the possibility to impact the war. However, this move is almost certainly not to prevent the Iranians from obtaining targeting data, and implementing this policy a week after the war began (and after American radar sites have been targeted), is akin to shutting the barn door after the horse has bolted. The Iranians are being fed targeting data of their own from the Chinese, who have been all to happy to highlight American losses with their own satellite constellations, which the United States does not control. And though it is always suspect due to the trustworthiness of the source, the Chinese have been focusing on highlighting specific targets for the Iranians to strike....and there's nothing the United States can do about it. Concerning the next phases of the war, indications and warnings are mounting of the operation shifting into the next phase. This morning the USS FORD CSG transited the Suez Canal, heading south into the Red Sea. Landstuhl Regional Medical Center in Germany, the hospital that is the main medical hub for the CENTCOM AOR, confirmed that all prenatal care has been suspended until further notice, so that the medical center can have flexibility in treating combat casualties. On the political front, rhetoric concerning a potential boots-on-ground phase of the operation has sharply increased over the past few days, though no specific decisions have been made public. In short, this could all be nothing, or it could be something. These very thin data points could be the early indicators of the war expanding in scope. In Washington, absolutely zero sentiments indicate that the war will be over anytime soon, and combat operations throughout Iran are expected to remain constant over the next few weeks at minimum. It's been seven days since the war began, and the USS LINCOLN CSG is still holding well outside the Strait of Hormuz, which is a solid indicator that the despite the overwhelming strikes throughout the country, enough risk remains to prevent bringing a carrier into the line of fire more directly. The arrival of a second aircraft carrier in a few days may change this, but as of right now, the Iranians are able to strike American bases and petroleum facilities just enough to indicate that risks remain constant throughout the region. Analyst: S2A1 Research: Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

S2 Underground

11,941 views • 3 months ago

//The Wire//1500Z March 1, 2026// //PRIORITY// //BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST. US CONSULATE UNDER ATTACK IN KARACHI, 9X RIOTERS KILLED AS US MARINES DEFEND THE COMPOUND. AYATOLLAH CONFIRMED DEAD FOLLOWING AIRSTRIKE. MISSILE AND DRONE STRIKES CONTINUE AROUND THE REGION.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Yesterday afternoon, President Trump confirmed the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, who was killed in an airstrike in Tehran. Most of his senior advisors were also killed in the same engagement. On the maritime front, this morning one commercial tanker vessel was struck by an Iranian drone, with the crew of the M/T SKYLIGHT abandoning ship after their vessel was hit in the Strait of Hormuz. A few hours ago a second tanker was reportedly struck in the Strait, with the M/T MKD VYOM being struck also attempting to transit the waterway this morning. Analyst Comment: Of note, the SKYLIGHT does not appear to have been attempting to transit the Strait and has likely been anchored in the same place for a few years. This vessel was actually serving the Iranian oil industry, and was on the US sanctions list, so the Iranians appear to have targeted one of their own ships, possibly so that the Americans couldn't make use of it. Significant strikes have been reported at the Jebel Ali petroleum terminals in Dubai, and satellite imagery of Ali Al Salem Airbase in Kuwait has confirmed that the base fuel point was hit, with the fuel bladders/blivets at this location burning overnight. All total, drone and missile attacks have remained constant throughout the day and night, with the various Interior and Defense Ministries of the following nations providing data on how many interceptions have been conducted overnight: Qatar: 65 ballistic missiles and 12 drones intercepted. Bahrain: 45 missiles and 9 drones intercepted. Jordan: 49 missiles and drones (combined figure), 13 of which were intercepted. Israel: Over 200 missiles and drones intercepted U.A.E. - 137 missiles and 209 drones detected, 195 of which were intercepted successfully. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have acknowledged strikes targeting their countries, however neither have confirmed how many drones/missiles have been intercepted. Analyst Comment: Note that these figures only encapsulate the munitions that were successfully intercepted and shot down; most countries don't want to publish the data of how many drones actually made it through their defenses, so the figure for how many strikes have been conducted so far is hard to discern. This time around all belligerents are exercising good operational security, so details of strikes are often hard to find via social media. This is most sharply demonstrated in Israel, where hundreds of strikes are occurring, but difficult to pinpoint on a map due to the exact location of strikes rarely being reported. Pakistan: Overnight, riots broke out at the US Consulate General in Karachi, which rapidly transitioned into an attempt to breach the American compound. After some time, rioters breached the outer security cordon, and US Marines which had taken up defensive positions inside the facility opened fire on the intruders before they could breach the secondary line of security around the perimeter. Analyst Comment: Details are extremely hard to verify, however local sources claim that a total of 9x Pakistani rioters were killed during the engagements so far, and the Marines have successfully held the Key Terrain around the Consulate for the past few hours. However tensions are rising, and if the videos of the riots are any indication, Pakistan is not up to the task of defending the American compound, as rioters were allowed to breach, destroy, and set the outer cordon of the American diplomatic post on fire, with no Pakistani security anywhere to be seen. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Around the United States, various efforts are underway to enhance the security posture of various locations and entities. In Texas, Governor Greg Abbott has activated service members to take part in Operation FURY SHIELD, a defensive operation to strengthen security at critical infrastructure sites around the state, in the event that retaliatory efforts via lone-wolf actors attempt to conduct attacks within the homeland. Similarly, the NYPD in New York is increasing patrols throughout the city, and several military bases around the United States remain at an elevated security posture. Right now these efforts are probably being conducted out of an abundance of caution, however it does confirm that at least someone is thinking about the potential for events overseas, to impact the homeland in the form of terrorism. This has, of course, been a concern for decades, however based on the widening war in the Middle East, it would be wise to remain vigilant and situationally aware for the next few weeks, as the conflict continues to inflame tensions here at home. Analyst: S2A1 Research: Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

S2 Underground

20,716 views • 3 months ago

//The Wire//1730Z June 23, 2025// //PRIORITY// //BLUF: IRANIAN COUNTERATTACK TARGETS US MILITARY BASES IN MIDDLE EAST. SHIPPING CONCERNS MOUNT AS IRAN THREATENS TO TARGET SHIPPING IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- Middle East: This morning the kingdom of Qatar closed their airspace to commercial aviation traffic. Separately, both the United States and Britain issued shelter-in-place orders for their citizens. Shortly after these announcements, multiple Iranian ballistic missiles struck US military bases throughout the region. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar appears to have been successfully targeted to some degree, and impacts were reported at the US Navy base in Bahrain. Reports have emerged indicating unknown bases in Iraq were also targeted by ballistic missiles. Shortly after the missiles were launched, American fighter aircraft were observed scrambling in Saudi Arabia, with a number of sorties being conducted on targets unknown. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: As this is a developing situation, the success of these missile strikes remains unknown until the dust settles. Video evidence indicates that many of the missiles were successfully intercepted, however some made it through to successfully impact their targets. Qatar announced that 100% of the missiles intended for their nation were successfully intercepted, however this remains unconfirmed at this time and Qatari media groups stated that at least three missiles evaded defenses to impact at Al Udeid. No word on casualties from any of the strikes reported so far today. Following the strikes on Iranian facilities over the weekend (and today's retaliatory strikes), tensions have escalated sharply throughout the region. Iranian forces have threatened to "close" the Strait of Hormuz, which traditionally involves the emplacement of sea mines throughout the choke point. There are no indications that IRGCN and/or IRIN vessels have laid any mines just yet. However, some commercial shipping companies that are unwilling to accept the risk have turned around and begun returning to their homeports. Analyst: S2A1 Research: //END REPORT//

S2 Underground

10,600 views • 11 months ago

//The Wire//1300Z February 27, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: FINAL PREPARATIONS BEGIN FOR COMBAT OPERATIONS IN MIDDLE EAST. US MILITARY SHOOTS DOWN BORDER PATROL DRONE IN FRIENDLY FIRE INCIDENT. CONFLICT FLARES UP AGAIN BETWEEN PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: As of this morning, Chinese satellite imagery indicates that Al-Udeid Airbase has been fully evacuated of tanker aircraft, with only a small number of other airframes remaining at this location. The *FORD* CSG has arrived on station off the coast of Israel, and most of the movement of fighter aircraft has slowed to a crawl, as all of the aircraft that have been forward-deployed throughout the region are in their final staging areas, awaiting the launch of the operation. Western Asia: Border clashes between the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan have flared up again, as intense fighting has been reported along the border in the east. Pakistani forces have bombed a few ammo dumps in the Afghan district in Nangarhar, with Taliban forces responding in kind by shooting at Pakistani observation posts along the border. Taliban forces have also claimed to have conducted drone strikes of their own, with improvised explosive drones being used to target several Pakistani military installations overnight. -HomeFront- Texas: Yesterday evening a friendly-fire shootdown incident was reported involving US military forces shooting down a Customs and Border Patrol drone, which was conducting patrols along the southern US border. Analyst Comment: Many details have not been provided on this shootdown incident just yet, however it looks like a CBP drone was operating along the border in the vicinity of Fort Hancock, and due to a lack of deconfliction measures they shot down one of their own drones using a laser-based defense system similar to the system that was being used in El Paso last week. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, so far everything is lining up for the next potential strike window to open up sometime this weekend, with weather conditions throughout Iran being favorable for most military operations. Lunar illumination is good, and there are no cloud ceilings throughout the nation for the next few days. This morning diplomatic efforts to draw down forces throughout the region continue as well. American Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee sent an email to staffers at the Embassy this morning, telling them that departure is authorized, and that anyone who wants to leave "should do so today". This timeline lines up with the American tradition of conducting strikes after the stock markets close on Friday, though as to the exact hour of the operation beginning, it's anyone's guess. More broadly, we're now in the most optimal targeting window, and this window will be open for the next few days. Analyst: S2A1 Research: Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

S2 Underground

24,199 views • 3 months ago

//The Wire//2300Z March 30, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: STRATEGIC CONCERNS REMAIN AS WAR IN MIDDLE EAST HIGHLIGHTS AMERICAN VULNERABILITIES. HOUTHIS JOIN THE WAR WITH MISSILE ATTACKS ON ISRAEL.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: The situation continues to deteriorate as Iranian attacks throughout the region have become vastly more effective over the past few days. Iranian targeting of locations in Israel has continued to increase, with multiple targets being struck over the weekend. The refinery in Haifa was struck yesterday afternoon, which resulted in a fire at the facility. Separately, a factory was hit in the industrial zone in Neot Havov, which also resulted in a fire. American bases in Kuwait were also hit overnight, with Iranian missiles targeting barracks facilities. Red Sea: Over the weekend, the Houthis entered the war, firing one cruise missile toward Israel. Analyst Comment: The Houthi's have chosen a soft-start to the war, and the missile that was fired was reportedly intercepted. Nevertheless, this is an indication that another front has been opened up, and since the FORD CSG is no longer in the Red Sea (due to moving off-station for repairs), missile defense in the region is less effective at the precise moment that the Houthis are entering the war. Saudi Arabia: Following a series of Iranian airstrikes, several strategic American aircraft were destroyed at Prince Sultan Air Base. Several KC-135 refueling tankers were destroyed, along with at least one E-3 Sentry AWACS early warning aircraft. Concerning casualties, official casualty figures were classified at the beginning of the war, however the Pentagon reports approximately 10x US service members were wounded during this attack. Jerusalem: Controversy has continued throughout the Old City as Israeli forces continue to inflame tensions with Christians throughout the region. Yesterday, Israeli police disrupted Palm Sunday proceedings as Cardinal Pizzaballa of the Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem was prevented from attending the procession at the Church of the Holy Sepulcher. Analyst Comment: This incident was so deliberate that even Mike Huckabee spoke out against it, calling the incident "unfortunate overreach". Considering Huckabee's infamy on this issue at this point, combined with the historical record (and the biblical context), it's a helpful barometer to gauge how serious of an incident this was, which increases tensions at a time when the stakes are already quite high around the region. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The successful Iranian strike at Prince Sultan Air Base was very significant for many reasons. For one, taking out major American assets is a big deal, and the loss of EW aircraft will degrade American capabilities. The most obvious question is why these aircraft were being staged within Iranian missile range in the first place. The answer to this will be debatable: maybe military leadership knew the danger and decided that the risk was worth it, or maybe they got cocky and ignored the risk. There's no way to know right now, but it is not a great look for the US Air Force to put these airframes well within striking range of the Iranians. For context, the B-52's which are conducting bombing raids in Iran are mostly being launched all the way from England, simply due to the risk of housing them closer to the fight. However, when it comes to some aircraft, we gave the Iranians clean access to "Tanker Row", which allowed them to destroy several strategic aircraft on the ground. This small detail, while not particularly groundbreaking, also serves as a reminder for how complicated wars can be. Nothing is as simple as the textbook says it will be, and in wartime everything gets vastly more difficult. Vulnerabilities also increase because when things get complicated, the stakes are higher, and the room for error is substantially reduced. One early warning aircraft getting struck on the ground is one radar dish out of the fight...an airspace sector that will need to be filled by another asset. This idea also applies to life on the American homefront as well. One ship failing to make it's run through the Strait of Hormuz can swing world markets wildly, because there's a lot riding on that one ship. On any given day, there is some elasticity with world markets, and the petroleum sector is a good example of that due to the ramp-up/ramp-down of petroleum production which takes some time. But at some point, with a major global choke point out of the picture, there's no telling how things will work out as the effects of two major wars on two continents (Europe and the Middle East) come to bear. Analyst: S2A1 Research: Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

S2 Underground

17,426 views • 2 months ago

//The Wire//1300Z February 28, 2026// //PRIORITY// //BLUF: WAR BEGINS WITH IRAN.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: This morning the war began as American and Israeli forces conducted pre-emptive strikes throughout Iran. Major bombings have been reported throughout most major cities around the county, with the heaviest concentrations of bombings taking place in Tehran. In response, Iranian forces have conducted missile strikes targeting American bases in Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and several other locations. Missile impacts have been observed at Ali Al Salem Airbase in Kuwait, Al Udeid Airbase in Qatar, Al Dhafra Airbase in the UAE, Muwaffaq Airbase in Jordan, and at the headquarters of 5th Fleet in Manama, Bahrain. Missile impacts were also reported in Israel, mostly in the port city of Haifa at the moment. In Iraq, the Kataib Hezbollah al-Nujaba group announced that they will begin insurgent attacks on American forces throughout the region, to include the targeting of American civilians working at American-run oil facilities throughout Iraq. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: President Trump posted an 8-minute video to his Truth Social page, explaining the rationale for the war. In the video, President Trump ordered all Iranian forces to lay down their arms and surrender, while urging all Iranian civilians to stay in their homes while the bombings are conducted. President Trump then urged civilians to rise up and overthrown their government. Beyond these basic details, not much else is known regarding the overall end-goal of this war, however bombings have continued constantly throughout the past few hours. President Trump is expected to conduct another address to the nation later this morning. Analyst: S2A1 Research: Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

S2 Underground

703,460 views • 3 months ago

//The Wire//2300Z March 31, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: STARLINK SATELLITE EXPERIENCES "ANOMALY" IN ORBIT. FPV DRONE ATTACKS REPORTED AT RUSSIAN BASE IN MALI. WAR IN MIDDLE EAST INTENSIFIES WITH INCREASE OF AMERICAN BOMBING AND IRANIAN DRONE ATTACKS.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Several escalations occurred overnight, with substantial strikes being reported throughout the region. Satellite imagery indicates that the strikes within Iran have increased in scope, though most of the targeting efforts remain concentrated in the western part of the country. Last night American forces struck an ammo dump in Isfahan, which resulted in significant secondary explosions at the site. This strike supplements many other strikes throughout the area, which have destroyed most of the military infrastructure throughout Isfahan. In the Persian Gulf itself, Iranian targeting of merchant vessels continued overnight, as two ships reported being targeted. The M/T AL SALMI was struck by an Iranian drone, sustaining damage from the subsequent fire that broke out on board after the strike. Another unidentified vessel reported a close-call, with an unidentified munition landing in the water close to the vessel. Pacific: Yesterday the Marshall Islands declared a state of emergency for at least the next 90 days, due to fuel shortages caused by the reduction of petroleum production in the Middle East and with travel through the Strait of Hormuz being restricted. President Heine signed the declaration yesterday, and various committees have been formed to determine what steps to take as the war continues. Mali: This morning a local insurgent group posted a video claiming credit for a drone attack on a military outpost in the remote town of Anefis. The Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) is a small insurgent group that has been waging war in the region for a while, with combat operations intensifying over the past few weeks. Analyst Comment: While a couple of FPV drone strikes are mostly insignificant on the battlefield, this does indicate that even in the most far-flung regions of the earth, drone warfare is becoming a concern that even large nationstates continue to struggle with. For instance, the site struck by FLA yesterday was also allegedly being used by Russian advisors, and this is the second instance in about a week of FLA militants using munitions attached to FPV drones to carry out attacks. -HomeFront- USA: Starlink announced a malfunction with one of their satellites, with the satellite experiencing some level of breakup in orbit. Satellite imagery from a craft with a higher orbit captured the satellite in orbit, which indicates it's still mostly intact even though hundreds of particles have been detected separating from this platform. The cause of the malfunction has not yet been disclosed, with this incident only being described as an "anomaly". -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Indications and warnings are growing that the intensification of the war in Iran might be what is colloquially known in the targeting world as Shaping Fires, in other words blowing up a lot of stuff in preparation for a future objective. Since the start of the war, the United States has been working through a High Payoff Target List (HPTL), which is basically a list of targets arranged by which ones should be struck first. In an air war, the targets at the top of the list are usually missile defense sites, radar arrays, or any other targets which might be more important to take out first. As time goes on, eventually lower-priority targets can be struck. However, in going through this process, the world eventually finds out what targets were on that list. And right now, a month after the war began, the targets that are being struck are probably an indicator of what is being planned for. As an example, the US completely leveled the entire headquarters for the 33rd and the 44th Artillery Groups, which included dozens of impact craters being observed on satellite imagery in the boneyard of old artillery pieces that have been in this same location since the Iran-Iraq War. These field artillery units, while certainly valid military targets in a declared state of Armed Conflict, aren't exactly a high priority for meeting the strategic objectives conveyed by the White House. These artillery pieces, however, would have been of great use for defending against forces on the ground. As at least one Brigade Combat Team (BCT) from the 82nd Airborne arrives in CENTCOM to supplement the two MEU's already on station, many are speculating on the potential for a US ground invasion of Iran. This is debatable to the point that many people believe such a possibility is unthinkable, and the rhetoric of the war winding down any day now has been a constant factor for consideration. However, this rhetoric is not reflected by the raw information available at the present moment concerning the situation on the ground. Operations so far indicate that if a ground invasion were on the menu, the targets that are being struck right now are the exact sites that would need to be struck for any ground combat element to have any chance of success at all. Nevertheless, aside from the forward deployment of troops to the region, many more boxes must be checked before any ground operation would be feasible. Most military doctrine dictates that "the defensive form of warfare is stronger than the offense" (Clausewitz), which makes the task ahead much more difficult since the most effective way to conduct littoral operations in a contested environment is to effectively disrupt the enemy's kill-chain (i.e. their own manner of identifying and prosecuting their own targets) BEFORE operations are conducted within the enemy's weapons engagement zone (WEZ). Conducting operations within the WEZ is an expectation of the Marine forces currently deployed, as this mission set is their bread and butter. However, at this point, that kill-chain has not been disrupted to a sufficient degree, and Iranian forces routinely conduct over-the-horizon targeting capability. So in short, it may be some time before even the most basic ground operation will be feasible under current military doctrine. However, the textbook can always be disregarded at any point, and decision-makers are going to do whatever they so choose. Analyst: S2A1 Research: Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

S2 Underground

10,854 views • 2 months ago

//The Wire//2300Z April 1, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: STRATEGIC AIRLIFT OF AMERICAN GROUND ATTACK AIRCRAFT TO THE MIDDLE EAST CONTINUES. AUSTRALIA MOVES TO NEXT STEP OF FUEL CRISIS PLAN. IRAN CONTINUES TARGETING OF MERCHANT VESSELS IN PERSIAN GULF.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- United Kingdom: Strategic movement of US military assets continues as ground attack aircraft continue their transit to the Middle East. A total of 18x A-10C Thunderbolt II (Warthog) aircraft were observed at RAF Lakenheath on a temporary stop during movement into the CENTCOM area of responsibility. 6x more F-22 Raptor's were also observed arriving around the same time, which supplement the increase in cargo aircraft heading to the Middle East over the past few days. Middle East: Iranian attacks on commercial shipping continue, as another vessel (M/T AQUA 1) was struck by two projectiles off the coast of Qatar last night. This morning, Iranian forces hit the headquarters for Batelco in Bahrain, a major telecommunications company which hosts several Amazon Web Services (AWS) server farms at this location. Fuel tanks at Kuwait International Airport were also hit again this morning, as Iranian forces continue to strike the tanks which were not destroyed in the first wave of attacks at the start of the war. Australia: Last night PM Albanese addressed the nation with regards to the growing energy crisis around the nation. Australia has transitioned into Stage 2 of their newly-announced National Fuel Security Plan, which mostly involves removing or reducing taxes on fuel as prices remain extremely high due to the tightening of availability. The next step (if so required) will involve more targeted action to conserve fuel resources. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Tonight at 9:00pm (EST) President Trump is scheduled to address the nation with regards to the war in Iran. This follows the earlier address by PM Albanese of Australia and PM Starmer of the United Kingdom, who all have conducted addresses to their nations today, both of which focused on rising costs resulting from the war. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Within the Middle East, as the potential expansion of American combat operations looms, other indications are stacking up suggesting a more global involvement. Last night the Chechens announced that they are preparing to deploy to Iran in the event of a US invasion. While this almost certainly more of a propaganda effort than a serious endeavor, the potential involvement of mercenaries that have the backing of a superpower is still a factor for operational planning. Similarly, the Russians are claiming to have killed Anatolii Onyshchuk, one of the drone warfare advisors allegedly sent to Dubai to assist with efforts to coordinate more effective anti-drone countermeasures. Whether or not this is true is hard to verify with absolute certainty, however Ukrainian advisors have publicly been deployed to Dubai to liaise on matters of drone warfare. While these details are fairly minor, these developments highlight the fact that this war is not just a proxy war being fought by the United States...other nations are also involved as well. The Russians helping the Iranians to kill Ukrainian advisors in Dubai, while an interesting turn of events, is still an expected development that continues to stress the wide-scale nature of the wars being fought around the world. Regardless of how this war has worked out so far, the operational planning for what comes next will likely need to focus on not just the potential nuts and bolts of the Iranian defenses, but also the involvement of the rest of the world as well. Many adversaries of the United States seek to capitalize on any American mistakes in the region, and as a result everyone from armed factions in the Middle East, to Asian trade partners jaded by their treatment during the tariff scandals from a few months ago, will all attempt to settle old scores by making American endeavors in the region much more difficult than they otherwise would have been. Whether the war ends today...or escalates tomorrow...things will not be getting any easier anytime soon. Analyst: S2A1 Research: Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

S2 Underground

11,276 views • 2 months ago

//The Wire//2300Z March 17, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: ATTACKS CONTINUE IN BAGHDAD AS FPV DRONES BEGIN MORE FREQUENT USE IN IRAQ. IED DISCOVERED AT MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE IN FLORIDA. COUNTERTERRORISM CENTER DIRECTOR RESIGNS IN PROTEST OF WAR.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Persian Gulf: Over the past few days, conflict within Baghdad has become more significant, as Iranian-backed militia groups concentrate attacks on the Green Zone. Last night the Al-Rashid Hotel was hit by an Iranian drone, and another FPV drone incident was reported as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) continue conducting reconnaissance of the American Embassy compound, which usually results in drone attacks later on that night. These attacks have continued to be a daily occurrence, with sensitive sites at the Embassy compound being struck over the past few days. -HomeFront- Florida: Yesterday one of the Entry Control Points (ECPs) at MacDill Air Force Base was shut down due to a suspicious package being discovered at the Visitor's Center. After some time, EOD personnel cleared the device, and operations returned to normal. Analyst Comment: Officially, no comment has been made on this incident beyond the brief lockdown. As suspicious package incidents are extremely common nowadays, usually nothing comes of it. However in this case, a photo of the suspicious package circulated on social media, which indicates that this was a legitimate IED and not just a lost bag. Whether or not it was actually a viable device is anyone's guess, but the photo of the alleged device indicates that the fuze was lit, only sputtering out on it's own. So clearly somebody tried to blow something up, regardless of the failure to detonate. As a result, this is another important reminder of the threats that remain constant throughout American society, as the war in the Middle East inflames tensions at home. Washington D.C. - This morning the Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, Joe Kent, resigned from his position in protest of the continuing war in Iran, stating that he "cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby." -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: While all resignations in protest will sharply divide sentiment for and against, many arguments are being undertaken as people speak without thinking first. The fiery resignation letter is now functionally a Rorschach Test...people who make policy decisions will see what they want to see in it, and divide themselves accordingly. Disparaging comments attacking one's character that come out only after a public opinion is expressed are not the best indicator for what is really going on behind the scenes, but nevertheless that's exactly what ends up happening among those who are making decisions regarding the war. What is undeniable is that such a high-profile resignation right now is extremely important, and might be an indicator of future events. Regardless of the politics in play, (and taking personal feelings out of the situation entirely), when one of the main players in the US Intelligence Community resigns right now, at this present time, this is probably an indicator of far more serious developments coming down the pipeline. Senior resignations of this nature in any nation are quite rare, and hard-hitting resignation letters are rarer still. Nobody resigns because they think the war will be over anytime soon, and Kent (being the second-highest-ranking individual in the Intelligence Community) would have had the access to know information pertaining to future events that have not been made public. Due to this context, this could be an early indicator of what decisions have quietly been made behind closed doors, which have not yet come to fruition. Analyst: S2A1 Research: Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

S2 Underground

12,632 views • 2 months ago

//The Wire//1800Z March 18, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: PRESIDENT TRUMP SUSPENDS THE JONES ACT AS PETROLEUM INDUSTRY FEELS EFFECTS OF WAR IN IRAN. CONFLICT IN MIDDLE EAST CONTINUES AS ISRAELI FORCES INCREASE TARGETING EFFORTS IN LEBANON.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Persian Gulf: The war continues as before, with multiple attacks on American military bases occurring overnight. The American Embassy in Baghdad has been persistently targeted over the past few days, with one drone strike being reported last night, which resulted in unknown damage. Other coalition positions were struck as well, with Australia reporting successful Iranian targeting efforts at Al Minhad Airbase in the UAE. No casualties were reported by the Australians regarding this attack. Within Iran, Israel/American forces struck the South Pars Natural Gas Facility, one of the largest LNG facilities in the world. Analyst Comment: Following this strike, several GCC states have condemned the action, as destroying infrastructure like this is a major escalation that indicates the nature of the war is more unrestricted, but also because the gas fields serviced by this facility are decently close to the Qatari's own gas fields. Lebanon: The war has intensified over the past few days as Hezbollah and Israeli forces have continued fighting along the main axis of advance in the east. Throughout Lebanon (to include downtown Beirut) the Israeli bombing campaign continues, with Hezbollah forces remaining effective in targeting Tel Aviv with guided rockets and cruise missiles. -HomeFront- New Mexico: Yesterday afternoon a shooting was reported at Holloman Air Force Base, which resulted in one individual being killed and one other wounded at the base shopette. No other details have been provided on this shooting, and the investigation continues. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: In Washington, several items of note have been ongoing in the political realm, while attention has been focused on Iran. As one might expect, kicking off a war in the Middle East was expected to (and did) have secondary and tertiary effects. One of the immediate effects of this war has been found in the Petroleum, Oil, and Lubricant (POL) industry, which has experienced wildly fluctuating markets since the war began. This morning the average national gas price rose to $3.84 per gallon, which prompted the White House to implement their previously discussed tactic of suspending the Jones Act as an emergency means to bring prices down in the short term. For context, the Jones Act was implemented shortly after WW1 as a national security measure, to mandate that all goods that transit between American ports, must be transported using American ships with American crews. The general idea being that in the event of war, the maritime trade industry would need to remain effective...it wouldn't be super great for war to break out, and all of the merchant ships that keep the American economy afloat, were to sail back home. The American economy could be crippled without a shot being fired, solely by private companies in the US being allowed to use cheap foreign labor that is not loyal to the United States. In 1920 when the law was passed, the thought process was that companies might take advantage of the freedoms that America provides, to the legitimate detriment of national security. As a result, the Jones Act was a law intended to (somewhat begrudgingly) meddle in the free market, with the purpose of not allowing domestic American companies to rely on logistical infrastructure that isn't American and thus would be a vulnerability in war. As of this morning President Trump suspended this law in it's entirety for the next 60 days, with the White House's logic being that removing regulations will make shipping costs go down, as the free market of ships could carry cargo, and thus save some costs somewhere down the line, which could be passed on to consumers. The effectiveness of this tactic will be proven in due time; most maritime agencies don't think it will do much, as it's unlikely for costs to be passed on to consumers for one, and secondly this is really just a last-ditch measure to throw any potential theoretical solution out, so as to find a way to drop gas prices by even just a few cents, which the White House is desperate to do at this point. Either way, this Jones Act waiver is in place for the next 60 days. Going out on a limb just a bit, 60 day waivers are not usually issued for wars that are supposed to be over within a "few weeks", so this somewhat boilerplate policy decision may be an inadvertent indicator for how long this war is planned to last. Analyst: S2A1 Research: Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

S2 Underground

10,787 views • 2 months ago

The situation in northern Israel is getting surprisingly little attention in the West. Here’s some background and an explanation of just how dire it is. World War Three gets closer by the day, and I’m not exaggerating. UNSC resolution 1701 (2006) is that Hezbollah agree to stay north of the river Litani in Lebanon. This puts Israeli settlements out of anti-tank rocket range. However, Hezbollah have broken this and since 7th October have fired thousands of rockets into Israel, displacing some 60,000 Israelis from their homes. To be clear, Hezbollah is a direct Iranian proxy, who live like a virus inside the almost-dead body of the Lebanese state. Their fighters are far superior to Hamas, having gained serious experience in the Syrian civil war. They have no real ground manoeuvre or air power, but their tunnels in the chalk rock of southern Lebanon are better than Hamas’ and they have an estimated 150,000 rockets. There are UN Peacekeepers in Lebanon, but (shockingly for the UN, I know) they’re as much use as a bacon sandwich at a Bar Mitzvah. One very senior Israeli source described them to me as “an umbrella that folds when it rains”. So Israel has a real, very serious problem. They do not have the manpower to assault into Lebanon for any kind of sustained campaign, especially whilst Gaza is ongoing. So, in polite terms, they are kicking the shit out of it from the air (over which they have total superiority) and relying on missile defences. Thousands of targets have been struck in the last 9 months but Hezbollah retain very significant missile capability. This is why Israel are beholden to the USA to offer obscenely generous ceasefire terms to Hamas (that Hamas appear to be declining). They cannot afford to lose American military aid with this threat on their northern border. In the videos below, in the first vid you see the war zone northern Israel has become. The second one is the settlement of Katzrin in the Golan Heights. Surrounded on all sides by fires. In a statement to Qatari-funded Muslim Brotherhood mouthpiece Al Jazeera, yesterday Hezbollah said, “We simultaneously attacked 15 bases in the Golan and the Galilee using 150 rockets and 30 drones. This is the most extensive attack carried out by the organization since October 8, this attack came in response to the assassination in Joya and in order to deter Israel from carrying out further assassinations of this type.” On top of that, Iranian proxies in Iraq took responsibility last night for the joint operation they carried out together with the Houthis (Iranian proxies in Yemen), which launched these ballistic missiles and UAVs towards the Israeli cities of Ashdod and Haifa (third video). Iran is besieging Israel on all sides, and Israel is bending, not breaking. This situation is genuinely dire. It explains why Hamas will not sign a ceasefire deal, and why other non-Iran aligned Gulf states are meeting with IDF commanders. The entire region is teetering on the edge of a much more widespread conflict with Iran, and Israel is taking the brunt of it. If this situation deteriorates, our allies in the Gulf may call for aid. As a second front in the war against the Iran-Russia-China-Qatar axis of malign global actors, this could not be more serious or worrying. And all the while we see subversive Iranian proxy organisations organising protests about Gaza on Western streets. Hopefully the West is not defeated domestically before the war even starts in earnest.

Andrew Fox

1,310,115 views • 2 years ago

🚨 ‼️John Mearsheimer 🚨"FIRED "🚨Donald Trump No signs of quick end to US-Israel war on Iran First of all, this argument that, Iran is a great threat to stability in the Middle East, and a serious threat to the United States is nonsense. The greatest threat to stability in the Middle East is the United States, working closely together, with Israel. Iran has not started a war, in centuries as best I can tell. It's not a highly aggressive country. The country in the Middle East that aggressive is Israel. The country that has, committed genocide in Gaza is not Iran, it's Israel, and we were complicit. We meaning the United States is complicit in genocide. Twice, once last year in June of twenty twenty-five and again on February 28th of this year, the United States and Israel launched unprovoked attacks against Iran. So the idea that Iran is this great destabilizer in the Middle East is a myth that the United States and Israel purvey. The Israelis and the Americans are now doing to deal with this purported Iranian threat, what you see is we've taken measures that have made the situation much worse. In fact, one could argue that we are going to crash the international economy as a result of this war that Israel and the United States started. I would make the argument that we are on the edge of the precipice, in terms of the state of the world economy because of this war. This war shows no, signs of ending anytime soon, and already great damage has been done to the international economy, and more damage will be done the longer the war goes on. So this idea that, number one, Iran is a great threat to the United States is bogus, and number two, the idea that President Trump, and his friends in Israel are making, a safer and more stable Middle East is a ludicrous argument. In fact, what they're doing is they're putting the entire world, on the precipice of a disaster.

Ignorance, the root and stem of all evil

73,659 views • 2 months ago