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These big players loaded up heavy on $Bitcoin using leverage. Cheap debt and aggressive bets. Now the music is slowing. Private credit markets, the shadow banking monster that's been fueling everything, are showing massive stress. Over-leveraged positions, hidden risks, interconnected debt that no one fully understands until it cracks....

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Versan Aljarrah - Black Swan Capitalist

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Matthew Kratter of Bitcoin University on being self sovereign with Bitcoin: "The Michael Saylor followers right now who think that they're somehow Bitcoiners when they own a preferred stock that sits in their brokerage account and can be censored at any time... There's operational risks with that and there's leverage risks. And the actual Bitcoin that secures the assets of the balance sheet of the company is sitting at various custodians." "Having things in centralized places, having Bitcoin IOUs or anything like this is a big mistake." "If you don't know how to move Bitcoin around, if you don't know how to send it on-chain... you're going to be dependent on larger services. And the risk is that those don't even have the Bitcoin that they say that they do."

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Yes, we are past the point of no return. When debt service payments squeeze out spending, it is like plaque in the circulatory system squeezing out the flow of blood. It is the same kind of thing, and it can be measured. We are seeing that happen right now. There is also a supply and demand issue. A budget deficit means that debt has to be sold. We can see this happening in the bond market—bonds have been a bad investment, and there is pressure on interest rates and borrowing. This dynamic is happening, but people are treating it like it hasn't happened before. They don't understand that, just like plaque in the arteries, the debt builds up and they have that exposure.
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Yes, we are past the point of no return. When debt service payments squeeze out spending, it is like plaque in the circulatory system squeezing out the flow of blood. It is the same kind of thing, and it can be measured. We are seeing that happen right now. There is also a supply and demand issue. A budget deficit means that debt has to be sold. We can see this happening in the bond market—bonds have been a bad investment, and there is pressure on interest rates and borrowing. This dynamic is happening, but people are treating it like it hasn't happened before. They don't understand that, just like plaque in the arteries, the debt builds up and they have that exposure.

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Most people think about Bitcoin treasury companies incorrectly Here is why I think they are good for Bitcoin & why they are misunderstood: 1) Treasury companies are capitalizing the Bitcoin industry for a century to come 2) They are future Bitcoin Banks 3) However, they are developing in the reverse order compared to everything else - monetization first and then later on core business activities -- Bitcoin has traditionally received $1 for every $100 in funds that Crypto took in - it has historically been challenging to raise money for Bitcoin focused businesses. My view is that Treasury companies are changing this, and while the first phase will simply be acquiring as much Bitcoin as possible - they will later need to ensure the value of Bitcoin grows and find ways to use BTC as capital in a larger marketplace. These firms will become the future Bitcoin Banks and also Bitcoin conglomerates. In this exact moment in time the best use of capital is simply buying Bitcoin. It's hard to meaningfully outperform BTC, and as such all these businesses will do for a while is acquire BTC. But eventually that shifts, and these firms will see more incentive to both grow and deploy Bitcoin. They then will provide capital which, among other things, supports Bitcoin businesses and projects. Many people struggle to contextualize the current "land rush" phase with what will come later. You need to take a longer view to understand these firms. The order of operations is also reversed here. Typically you build a business or technology and then as a final step monetize it via an IPO. With Bitcoin, stage 1 is looking more like direct monetization prior to creating value via products, etc. This is deeply counter intuitive to many people in traditional finance, and also to many Bitcoiners. However, because Bitcoin is primarily money at a base level it makes sense the developmental path it is taking differs significantly from other tech. The amount of time it will take for other investors to understand this presents an opportunity for those who see it sooner. More thoughts below 👇
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Most people think about Bitcoin treasury companies incorrectly Here is why I think they are good for Bitcoin & why they are misunderstood: 1) Treasury companies are capitalizing the Bitcoin industry for a century to come 2) They are future Bitcoin Banks 3) However, they are developing in the reverse order compared to everything else - monetization first and then later on core business activities -- Bitcoin has traditionally received $1 for every $100 in funds that Crypto took in - it has historically been challenging to raise money for Bitcoin focused businesses. My view is that Treasury companies are changing this, and while the first phase will simply be acquiring as much Bitcoin as possible - they will later need to ensure the value of Bitcoin grows and find ways to use BTC as capital in a larger marketplace. These firms will become the future Bitcoin Banks and also Bitcoin conglomerates. In this exact moment in time the best use of capital is simply buying Bitcoin. It's hard to meaningfully outperform BTC, and as such all these businesses will do for a while is acquire BTC. But eventually that shifts, and these firms will see more incentive to both grow and deploy Bitcoin. They then will provide capital which, among other things, supports Bitcoin businesses and projects. Many people struggle to contextualize the current "land rush" phase with what will come later. You need to take a longer view to understand these firms. The order of operations is also reversed here. Typically you build a business or technology and then as a final step monetize it via an IPO. With Bitcoin, stage 1 is looking more like direct monetization prior to creating value via products, etc. This is deeply counter intuitive to many people in traditional finance, and also to many Bitcoiners. However, because Bitcoin is primarily money at a base level it makes sense the developmental path it is taking differs significantly from other tech. The amount of time it will take for other investors to understand this presents an opportunity for those who see it sooner. More thoughts below 👇

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Warren Buffett explains why he prefers productive assets over Bitcoin. He says he would gladly pay billions for a small share of U.S. farmland or apartments because they produce real value like food and housing. But even if he could buy all the Bitcoin in the world, he wouldn't take it, because it produces nothing and only has value if someone else pays more later. Buffett argues that Bitcoin is a speculative asset, not an investment, driven by hype, trading costs, and money changing hands rather than real wealth creation. In contrast, true assets must deliver something tangible over time. Bitcoin, he says, is speculation, not an investment: hype, fees, and money changing hands- without creating real wealth. True investments deliver tangible value over time.

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"Bitcoin is the greatest distraction from the greatest disruption that is coming to financial services" This quote lives rent free in my mind every single day since I heard the CEO of Franklin Templeton say this. Most of the participants in this space don't even realize what is happening in real time. Utility based blockchain projects are becoming intricate pieces of the global financial system. I keep mentioning $XRP $XDC $XLM $HBAR $QNT $ALGO $CSPR $LINK & many other projects. Look at their market cap valuation, now look at what Bitcoin is worth today market cap wise. The argument from maxis is that Bitcoin will never be flipped, that it will always remain in the number one spot. The institutions are force feeding retail the Bitcoin hype, however a few like Franklin Templeton are telling you the truth. DON'T MISS THE TARGET. There are tons of distractions in this space outside of Bitcoin like meme coins for example. Block out the noise, research, study and everything will soon start to make sense.
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"Bitcoin is the greatest distraction from the greatest disruption that is coming to financial services" This quote lives rent free in my mind every single day since I heard the CEO of Franklin Templeton say this. Most of the participants in this space don't even realize what is happening in real time. Utility based blockchain projects are becoming intricate pieces of the global financial system. I keep mentioning $XRP $XDC $XLM $HBAR $QNT $ALGO $CSPR $LINK & many other projects. Look at their market cap valuation, now look at what Bitcoin is worth today market cap wise. The argument from maxis is that Bitcoin will never be flipped, that it will always remain in the number one spot. The institutions are force feeding retail the Bitcoin hype, however a few like Franklin Templeton are telling you the truth. DON'T MISS THE TARGET. There are tons of distractions in this space outside of Bitcoin like meme coins for example. Block out the noise, research, study and everything will soon start to make sense.

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Catherine Fitts: "There's been a huge effort to encourage retail to go into crypto...because they're trying to prototype... programmable money... [and] keep people away from the real assets... the game of growing the debt is over...[now] we're all [scrambling for] real assets" This clip of Fitts, an investment banker, former Assistant Secretary of HUD, and founder of the Solari Report (The Solari Report | Catherine Austin Fitts), is taken from an interview with Greg Hunter (Greg Hunter) posted to Rumble on October 18, 2025. ----------------Partial transcription of clip--------------- "There's been a huge effort to encourage retail to go into crypto, partly because they're trying to prototype the programmable money and make it attractive and profitable for people to go into programmable money. So part of it was that, but they wanted to keep people away from the real assets. "If you are the big equity holders and, managers and the central banks, you want to buy gold and you want to buy land without interference from, you know, retail buyers. So if you can get the retail investors going off and buying, you know, helping you prototype your programmable money, then they're not competing with you to buy the land and to buy the real estate. "The more you can suck them over into helping build your control grid and away from getting control of the real assets, which you, you know, now that you've printed so much money, you want to get control of the real assets. That's what they've been doing. "We've been issuing more and more paper, more and more debt, more and more derivatives, more and more financial assets, but that doesn't mean we're making that. You know, the acceleration of paper, is greater than the creation of new real assets. So we are creating new real assets because we're creating new businesses, new technology, but you're creating far more financial assets. "It's very interesting. The German finance minister at the meeting in Shanghai in 2018 said, very astute comment. He said, the debt growth model is over. There are no reforms now that are not real reforms. And what he meant by that is the game of growing the debt is over. And now, like in the game of musical chairs, we're all going to scramble to get control of the real assets. "Of course, that's when all the enormous profits started attracting people into distributive ledger programmable money, because you're trying to suck them out of the real assets over here to create your control grid while you jump in and get control of the real assets."
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Catherine Fitts: "There's been a huge effort to encourage retail to go into crypto...because they're trying to prototype... programmable money... [and] keep people away from the real assets... the game of growing the debt is over...[now] we're all [scrambling for] real assets" This clip of Fitts, an investment banker, former Assistant Secretary of HUD, and founder of the Solari Report (The Solari Report | Catherine Austin Fitts), is taken from an interview with Greg Hunter (Greg Hunter) posted to Rumble on October 18, 2025. ----------------Partial transcription of clip--------------- "There's been a huge effort to encourage retail to go into crypto, partly because they're trying to prototype the programmable money and make it attractive and profitable for people to go into programmable money. So part of it was that, but they wanted to keep people away from the real assets. "If you are the big equity holders and, managers and the central banks, you want to buy gold and you want to buy land without interference from, you know, retail buyers. So if you can get the retail investors going off and buying, you know, helping you prototype your programmable money, then they're not competing with you to buy the land and to buy the real estate. "The more you can suck them over into helping build your control grid and away from getting control of the real assets, which you, you know, now that you've printed so much money, you want to get control of the real assets. That's what they've been doing. "We've been issuing more and more paper, more and more debt, more and more derivatives, more and more financial assets, but that doesn't mean we're making that. You know, the acceleration of paper, is greater than the creation of new real assets. So we are creating new real assets because we're creating new businesses, new technology, but you're creating far more financial assets. "It's very interesting. The German finance minister at the meeting in Shanghai in 2018 said, very astute comment. He said, the debt growth model is over. There are no reforms now that are not real reforms. And what he meant by that is the game of growing the debt is over. And now, like in the game of musical chairs, we're all going to scramble to get control of the real assets. "Of course, that's when all the enormous profits started attracting people into distributive ledger programmable money, because you're trying to suck them out of the real assets over here to create your control grid while you jump in and get control of the real assets."

Sense Receptor

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CJ KONSTANTINOS: "Nothing stops this train. Not even the smartest, best, most rich entrepreneur in the world with political support can stop the train." "If you're not on the Bitcoin train when it comes, you are going to miss one of the biggest moves that we're going to see in Bitcoin." "I think diminishing returns is going to be put to rest. And we are going to see a full-on panic into hard assets that supply cannot be expanded that easily, specifically real estate. And of course, Bitcoin with finite supply, you can't increase the supply at all. And the only way to get the existing supply back onto the market is a higher price." "That dynamic is going to create massive returns for those who are patient in Bitcoin."
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CJ KONSTANTINOS: "Nothing stops this train. Not even the smartest, best, most rich entrepreneur in the world with political support can stop the train." "If you're not on the Bitcoin train when it comes, you are going to miss one of the biggest moves that we're going to see in Bitcoin." "I think diminishing returns is going to be put to rest. And we are going to see a full-on panic into hard assets that supply cannot be expanded that easily, specifically real estate. And of course, Bitcoin with finite supply, you can't increase the supply at all. And the only way to get the existing supply back onto the market is a higher price." "That dynamic is going to create massive returns for those who are patient in Bitcoin."

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A concise three minute summary of the suppressed history of central banking, and why you're not taught about any of it in government schools. 🔥 "Kings repay debt with taxes. And when you control the debt of... a kingdom, you essentially own that kingdom... without ever wearing a crown or being in charge." "They actually fund both sides [in wars] at the same time. And so, because bloodshed creates debt and debt creates profit, they came in and started taking over nations and kingdoms." "A private bank prints money for nothing, backed by nothing—there's no gold behind it. [Governments] borrow this money. You get taxed to pay the interest." "They knew... people would eventually fight back... so what they did is they came for the education system." "They erased financial history and literacy. They buried real economics and replaced critical thought... with compliance." "And so now we pay taxes for money that doesn't even exist." "We're not really free. We're just well-behaved assets in this global Ponzi scheme of centralised banking."
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A concise three minute summary of the suppressed history of central banking, and why you're not taught about any of it in government schools. 🔥 "Kings repay debt with taxes. And when you control the debt of... a kingdom, you essentially own that kingdom... without ever wearing a crown or being in charge." "They actually fund both sides [in wars] at the same time. And so, because bloodshed creates debt and debt creates profit, they came in and started taking over nations and kingdoms." "A private bank prints money for nothing, backed by nothing—there's no gold behind it. [Governments] borrow this money. You get taxed to pay the interest." "They knew... people would eventually fight back... so what they did is they came for the education system." "They erased financial history and literacy. They buried real economics and replaced critical thought... with compliance." "And so now we pay taxes for money that doesn't even exist." "We're not really free. We're just well-behaved assets in this global Ponzi scheme of centralised banking."

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CryptoKaleo claims MicroStrategy is trapped in an endless cycle that is hurting its shareholders "They are diluting $MSTR holders directly to pay the bill for everything else." "They're buying the Bitcoin as a mask to be able to say, 'Hey, we're still buying Bitcoin,' but they're not increasing Bitcoin per share at all. For the longest time, that was the No. 1 metric." "They can't raise money through $STRC as long as it's trading this far below par... they can't tap that facility, and that was where they were raising the majority of their capital over the past year." "The real options left are dilution via either selling $MSTR or selling Bitcoin. Either way, both are hurting shareholders."
3:11

CryptoKaleo claims MicroStrategy is trapped in an endless cycle that is hurting its shareholders "They are diluting $MSTR holders directly to pay the bill for everything else." "They're buying the Bitcoin as a mask to be able to say, 'Hey, we're still buying Bitcoin,' but they're not increasing Bitcoin per share at all. For the longest time, that was the No. 1 metric." "They can't raise money through $STRC as long as it's trading this far below par... they can't tap that facility, and that was where they were raising the majority of their capital over the past year." "The real options left are dilution via either selling $MSTR or selling Bitcoin. Either way, both are hurting shareholders."

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.Erik Voorhees: It’s actually good, from the Trojan horse perspective, that Bitcoin was traceable enough for traditional institutions to tolerate it. “When Bitcoin came out, everyone called it private, thought of it as private. It was referred to as anonymous in every news story. And in some ways, it is very private and very anonymous. But the truth is that it’s also extremely trackable and traceable. It is not private in reality. And the question is, should it have been from the start? And at first I thought, yes, it should have been more private. And that was a mistake in its design. However, I think if Bitcoin had been anonymous truly from the start, like a Zcash or a Monero, it would have had such antagonism from the state. I don’t know that the state could have snuffed it out, but they would have tried much harder. And I think it’s actually good, from the Trojan horse metaphor perspective, that it was traceable enough that the traditional institutions could tolerate it. They’ve never liked it, but they could at least tolerate it because there is some traceability. And that has allowed Bitcoin to grow. And I think in its shadow, that other crypto assets are actually anonymous is very healthy. The strength of cryptocurrency as a concept in society, I think, is served best when Bitcoin itself is not perfectly private, but other assets are. That is a very difficult thing, I think, for the state to combat. And that decentralization of attributes is really, really crucial. So, yeah, I’m very glad that there are other coins that are private. I want there to be more of them, and I want them to be more popular. And I think it’s okay that Bitcoin itself is not.”
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.Erik Voorhees: It’s actually good, from the Trojan horse perspective, that Bitcoin was traceable enough for traditional institutions to tolerate it. “When Bitcoin came out, everyone called it private, thought of it as private. It was referred to as anonymous in every news story. And in some ways, it is very private and very anonymous. But the truth is that it’s also extremely trackable and traceable. It is not private in reality. And the question is, should it have been from the start? And at first I thought, yes, it should have been more private. And that was a mistake in its design. However, I think if Bitcoin had been anonymous truly from the start, like a Zcash or a Monero, it would have had such antagonism from the state. I don’t know that the state could have snuffed it out, but they would have tried much harder. And I think it’s actually good, from the Trojan horse metaphor perspective, that it was traceable enough that the traditional institutions could tolerate it. They’ve never liked it, but they could at least tolerate it because there is some traceability. And that has allowed Bitcoin to grow. And I think in its shadow, that other crypto assets are actually anonymous is very healthy. The strength of cryptocurrency as a concept in society, I think, is served best when Bitcoin itself is not perfectly private, but other assets are. That is a very difficult thing, I think, for the state to combat. And that decentralization of attributes is really, really crucial. So, yeah, I’m very glad that there are other coins that are private. I want there to be more of them, and I want them to be more popular. And I think it’s okay that Bitcoin itself is not.”

Arjun Khemani

23,056 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

VanEck CEO Jan van Eck on CNBC: “There’s something else going on within the Bitcoin community that non-crypto people need to know about. And that is: ultimately, VanEck has been around before Bitcoin. We will walk away from Bitcoin if we think the thesis is fundamentally broken. We don’t right now, but you always have to look at the underlying technology and the crypto. What the Bitcoin community has been asking itself is: Is there enough encryption in Bitcoin, because quantum computing is coming? And secondly: Is there enough privacy in Bitcoin? And so a lot of Bitcoin OGs or maxis have been looking at Zcash. Zcash is a token. It’s sort of related to Bitcoin with a lot more privacy. The kind of garbage that we got about Bitcoin four years ago was: ‘It’s used for all bad illicit behavior.’ But now everyone kind of realizes that when you move money around on the Bitcoin blockchain, you can see it. You can see it move from one wallet to another. And a lot of people are looking for more privacy.”
1:00

VanEck CEO Jan van Eck on CNBC: “There’s something else going on within the Bitcoin community that non-crypto people need to know about. And that is: ultimately, VanEck has been around before Bitcoin. We will walk away from Bitcoin if we think the thesis is fundamentally broken. We don’t right now, but you always have to look at the underlying technology and the crypto. What the Bitcoin community has been asking itself is: Is there enough encryption in Bitcoin, because quantum computing is coming? And secondly: Is there enough privacy in Bitcoin? And so a lot of Bitcoin OGs or maxis have been looking at Zcash. Zcash is a token. It’s sort of related to Bitcoin with a lot more privacy. The kind of garbage that we got about Bitcoin four years ago was: ‘It’s used for all bad illicit behavior.’ But now everyone kind of realizes that when you move money around on the Bitcoin blockchain, you can see it. You can see it move from one wallet to another. And a lot of people are looking for more privacy.”

Arjun Khemani

569,098 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

BREAKING: BLACKROCK’S LARRY FINK JUST CONFIRMED IT. SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS ARE BUYING BITCOIN. “I KNOW THEY BOUGHT MORE IN THE 80s.” Not equities. Not treasuries. They bought the asset they once ridiculed. Coming from the CEO of the world’s largest asset manager, this isn’t speculation. It’s a signal. And it changes everything. - Sovereign wealth funds control $11.5 trillion globally - Just 1% into BTC is $115B in fresh demand - That’s 5× more than the total BTC held on Coinbase The last time sovereigns made a move like this? 1980s. They piled into gold, oil, and real estate, preparing for inflation, debt spirals, and global shocks. Sound familiar? Today, they’re buying Bitcoin. Silently. Before the herd. Before the headlines. So here’s the question no one dares to ask: What happens when entire nations front-run the masses and Bitcoin becomes not a hedge… but a sovereign reserve asset? The crowd is watching ETFs. But the real flows are happening off-screen in size, and in silence. The rulers are buying the rebellion. And there’s no turning back.
0:30

BREAKING: BLACKROCK’S LARRY FINK JUST CONFIRMED IT. SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS ARE BUYING BITCOIN. “I KNOW THEY BOUGHT MORE IN THE 80s.” Not equities. Not treasuries. They bought the asset they once ridiculed. Coming from the CEO of the world’s largest asset manager, this isn’t speculation. It’s a signal. And it changes everything. - Sovereign wealth funds control $11.5 trillion globally - Just 1% into BTC is $115B in fresh demand - That’s 5× more than the total BTC held on Coinbase The last time sovereigns made a move like this? 1980s. They piled into gold, oil, and real estate, preparing for inflation, debt spirals, and global shocks. Sound familiar? Today, they’re buying Bitcoin. Silently. Before the herd. Before the headlines. So here’s the question no one dares to ask: What happens when entire nations front-run the masses and Bitcoin becomes not a hedge… but a sovereign reserve asset? The crowd is watching ETFs. But the real flows are happening off-screen in size, and in silence. The rulers are buying the rebellion. And there’s no turning back.

Merlijn The Trader

27,212 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

🚨 SOMETHING EXTREMELY BIG IS COMING THIS MONDAY!! You cannot ignore this. BTC vs GOLD is flashing the same setup that created one of the biggest monetary repricing moves in history. Gold in the 1970s: Double Top → Bottom → ATH Test → Rejection Bitcoin is now standing in a very similar zone. Old high tested. Rejection completed. Confidence damaged. Structure still alive. Most people see this rejection and think the cycle is over. But in the Gold fractal, that rejection was not the end. It was the reset before the strongest expansion phase. That is why this area matters. If silver can pump 600%, most people have no idea what can happen when Bitcoin enters a real monetary repricing leg. From here, the move will not look normal. The crowd sees rejection. The fractal shows reset. Institutions understand this. Retail is still panicking. This is where generational wealth is created. I usually do the opposite of what the masses are doing. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
0:49

🚨 SOMETHING EXTREMELY BIG IS COMING THIS MONDAY!! You cannot ignore this. BTC vs GOLD is flashing the same setup that created one of the biggest monetary repricing moves in history. Gold in the 1970s: Double Top → Bottom → ATH Test → Rejection Bitcoin is now standing in a very similar zone. Old high tested. Rejection completed. Confidence damaged. Structure still alive. Most people see this rejection and think the cycle is over. But in the Gold fractal, that rejection was not the end. It was the reset before the strongest expansion phase. That is why this area matters. If silver can pump 600%, most people have no idea what can happen when Bitcoin enters a real monetary repricing leg. From here, the move will not look normal. The crowd sees rejection. The fractal shows reset. Institutions understand this. Retail is still panicking. This is where generational wealth is created. I usually do the opposite of what the masses are doing. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

DANNY

92,052 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.
11:54

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Chris Millas

36,835 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

Gold since April 2025: +60% Bitcoin since April 2025: -30% Gold since its January high: still near all-time highs. Bitcoin since its October high: -48%. 5 consecutive red months for Bitcoin. A 0.55 correlation with the S&P 500 as of March 1st. And people still call it "digital gold." Let me explain why that framing will cost you money: When the Middle East escalated, gold surged above $5,300. Bitcoin dropped. When equities sold off, gold held. Bitcoin sold with them. When uncertainty spiked, gold hit all-time highs. Bitcoin bled. This isn't an accident. It's the nature of WHAT these assets actually are. Gold is an asset that isn't somebody else's liability. It's not correlated with the general level of risk assets. It doesn't shift identities depending on what the market needs it to be that week. Bitcoin does. Sometimes it's digital gold. Sometimes it's correlated to NASDAQ. Sometimes it follows the dollar. Sometimes it follows liquidity. It depends on whatever narrative is convenient at the time. And narrative always follows price. That's the way it works. When Bitcoin was ripping to $126,000 in October, everyone called it a store of value. Now that it's trading at $66,000 with 5 red months, NOBODY talks about the digital gold thesis anymore. Gold doesn't have that problem. Central banks bought 863 tonnes of gold in 2025. Accumulating at the fastest pace in decades. China is buying like crazy for months. Nobody's buying Bitcoin for their sovereign reserves. Nobody's rewriting the gold thesis every quarter. I said this on back in April last year when Bitcoin was reclaiming $90,000 and everyone wanted me to be bullish on crypto: "If NASDAQ takes a header, if risk assets take another leg down, you want to bet Bitcoin goes up or down? I'd vote down." NASDAQ took a header. Risk assets took a leg down. Bitcoin went down. Gold went up. It's not complicated. Gold is insurance against irresponsible policies from central bankers and government officials. It protects you against the falling dollar. It's been doing this for 5,000 years. Bitcoin is a speculative instrument that acts like protection only when everything else is going up too. And in the environment we're heading into (geopolitical risk at generational highs, the dollar under pressure, central banks still buying, the Fed boxed in on rates) you want the real thing. Not the imitation. GOLD SURVIVED EMPIRES BITCOIN SURVIVED TWITTER
1:25

Gold since April 2025: +60% Bitcoin since April 2025: -30% Gold since its January high: still near all-time highs. Bitcoin since its October high: -48%. 5 consecutive red months for Bitcoin. A 0.55 correlation with the S&P 500 as of March 1st. And people still call it "digital gold." Let me explain why that framing will cost you money: When the Middle East escalated, gold surged above $5,300. Bitcoin dropped. When equities sold off, gold held. Bitcoin sold with them. When uncertainty spiked, gold hit all-time highs. Bitcoin bled. This isn't an accident. It's the nature of WHAT these assets actually are. Gold is an asset that isn't somebody else's liability. It's not correlated with the general level of risk assets. It doesn't shift identities depending on what the market needs it to be that week. Bitcoin does. Sometimes it's digital gold. Sometimes it's correlated to NASDAQ. Sometimes it follows the dollar. Sometimes it follows liquidity. It depends on whatever narrative is convenient at the time. And narrative always follows price. That's the way it works. When Bitcoin was ripping to $126,000 in October, everyone called it a store of value. Now that it's trading at $66,000 with 5 red months, NOBODY talks about the digital gold thesis anymore. Gold doesn't have that problem. Central banks bought 863 tonnes of gold in 2025. Accumulating at the fastest pace in decades. China is buying like crazy for months. Nobody's buying Bitcoin for their sovereign reserves. Nobody's rewriting the gold thesis every quarter. I said this on back in April last year when Bitcoin was reclaiming $90,000 and everyone wanted me to be bullish on crypto: "If NASDAQ takes a header, if risk assets take another leg down, you want to bet Bitcoin goes up or down? I'd vote down." NASDAQ took a header. Risk assets took a leg down. Bitcoin went down. Gold went up. It's not complicated. Gold is insurance against irresponsible policies from central bankers and government officials. It protects you against the falling dollar. It's been doing this for 5,000 years. Bitcoin is a speculative instrument that acts like protection only when everything else is going up too. And in the environment we're heading into (geopolitical risk at generational highs, the dollar under pressure, central banks still buying, the Fed boxed in on rates) you want the real thing. Not the imitation. GOLD SURVIVED EMPIRES BITCOIN SURVIVED TWITTER

George Noble

11,852 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten