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CryptoKaleo claims MicroStrategy is trapped in an endless cycle that is hurting its shareholders "They are diluting $MSTR holders directly to pay the bill for everything else." "They're buying the Bitcoin as a mask to be able to say, 'Hey, we're still buying Bitcoin,' but they're not increasing Bitcoin...

57,921 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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🔥STRATEGY WILL BE THE WORLD'S MOST VALUABLE COMPANY - BITCOIN WILL FLIP GOLD🔥 Think Bitcoin is going to eventually flip gold as the world's #1 asset? In that case, you should be bullish on $MSTR! NAPKIN MATH: Let's make it simple with 20 million circulating BTC and gold also sees some inflows so it's $40T by the time the BTC flippening of gold happens. $40T / 20 million = $2 million per Bitcoin. When does this happen? No idea. Let's say it happens in 2038. Let's say zero MSTR mNAV expansion. Zero new Bitcoin acquired. They pay 12% on STRC until then. Dividends paid with MSTR issuance. They pay 0.55% on their debt and it never goes away (lol). RESULT: Bitcoin goes from $62,875 to $2 million. BTC return: 31.81x MSTR goes from $93.28 to approximately $4,253. MSTR return: 45.60x Again: Zero new Bitcoin acquired. Zero mNAV expansion. The preferreds remain outstanding. The debt remains outstanding. MSTR spends approximately $22.7 billion servicing STRC dividends and debt interest over the 12 years, entirely through common-stock issuance. And MSTR still outperforms Bitcoin. HOW DOES THAT HAPPEN? At the beginning, MSTR’s net senior claims equal approximately 292,251 BTC. At $2 million per Bitcoin, those exact same dollar claims equal only 9,188 BTC. The liabilities never disappear. They simply get beaten within an inch of their economic lives by the denominator. That releases approximately 283,064 BTC of residual value to the common equity without Strategy purchasing one additional sat. Common shareholders’ residual claim rises: 551,524 BTC → 834,587 BTC Paying 12 years of dividends and interest through MSTR issuance increases the share count by only: 384.6 million → 406.0 million Just 5.6% dilution. So CEBE per share rises: 143,404 sats → 205,562 sats That is 43.3% growth in claims-adjusted Bitcoin exposure per share while the gross Bitcoin treasury remains completely unchanged. The return equation becomes: 31.81x BTC appreciation × 1.433x CEBE-per-share growth × 1.00x mNAV change = 45.60x MSTR $10,000 invested in Bitcoin becomes approximately $318,000. $10,000 invested in MSTR becomes approximately. $456,000 MSTR creates roughly $138,000 of additional terminal wealth on the same $10,000 investment while buying zero additional Bitcoin. This is the part MSTR bears cannot process because their mental model of a capital structure is a shoebox with the word “DEBT” written on the lid in crayon. MSTR is not merely a static jar of Bitcoin. Common shareholders own the residual claim behind fixed-fiat liabilities wrapped around scarce collateral. As Bitcoin appreciates, those dollar liabilities consume fewer sats. The value released by that compression flows to common equity. At $2 million Bitcoin, the debt is still technically there. It just has the economic significance of a parking ticket taped to an aircraft carrier. The Bitcoin flippening would not merely dethrone gold. It would turn MSTR’s capital structure into a 12 year public execution of the dollar denominator:

Adam Livingston

24,380 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Strategy buys 334 $BTC, but the real story is $176M in STRC buybacks, funded partly by interest on its cash pile "The big story here is not that Saylor is once again buying Bitcoin, because we've now seen that sustained for a few weeks, as they bought 334 for $28.7 million, while also spending over, I believe, $176 million buying back STRC." "We've long discussed how complicated the Strategy Bitcoin buying and corporate balance sheet game has become, and that is in the spotlight every single week, because this is not just simply raise cash and buy Bitcoin anymore." "Now it is find creative ways to raise cash and maybe use that cash to buy some of our things while also selling some other things." "The Bitcoin purchase itself was funded from $15.7 million from issuing and selling MSTR shares, so a very, very slight bit of dilution, but that's the old model. Only $13 million came from Strategy's flexible USD cash pool." "What I said is more interesting is the $176.3 million of STRC that they bought. They funded this using $154.1 million of their USD cash pile and $22.2 million of interest earned on its dollar holdings." "They've raised billions and billions and billions of dollars in cash, much like a stablecoin, they could actually earn yield with high interest rates on that cash." "They're putting that cash to work to buy back STRC. This is the first time, to my knowledge, that we've seen that part of the machine kicking in, and it's not something that I'd heard anybody even mentioning."

The Wolf Of All Streets

25,640 görüntüleme • 7 gün önce

Peter Schiff says crypto's support for Trump has made Democrats its enemy, and they'll do whatever they can to go after the industry "Trump's campaign was financed in large part by the crypto industry, and Trump overwhelmingly won the crypto vote by promising to do things specifically to enrich people who own Bitcoin." "You know, I'm gonna establish a Bitcoin reserve. We're gonna use taxpayer money to buy Bitcoin. We're gonna make the United States the Bitcoin capital of the world. I'm a Bitcoin president. I have a Bitcoin cabinet. I have a crypto czar. All the Bitcoin people were enthusiastically supporting Trump because they thought that Trump would make them rich, because Trump was gonna drive up the value of Bitcoin." "The Democrats now are antagonistic, because now they see that Bitcoin is a source of funding for Republicans, a source of votes. So now the Democrats are anti-Bitcoin just for that reason alone, forget about anything else." "They're gonna be very hostile. They're gonna go after Trump's donors. They're gonna go after the industries that support him. They're gonna go after his voters, right? So they're gonna do whatever they can to make things difficult for that industry." "Now, Trump is still the president, but he won't be president for much longer. But a lot of this comes out of Congress. So I think that the tables are gonna turn, and Washington is gonna be more of an enemy than a friend when it comes to Bitcoin."

The Wolf Of All Streets

41,373 görüntüleme • 1 gün önce

Most people think about Bitcoin treasury companies incorrectly Here is why I think they are good for Bitcoin & why they are misunderstood: 1) Treasury companies are capitalizing the Bitcoin industry for a century to come 2) They are future Bitcoin Banks 3) However, they are developing in the reverse order compared to everything else - monetization first and then later on core business activities -- Bitcoin has traditionally received $1 for every $100 in funds that Crypto took in - it has historically been challenging to raise money for Bitcoin focused businesses. My view is that Treasury companies are changing this, and while the first phase will simply be acquiring as much Bitcoin as possible - they will later need to ensure the value of Bitcoin grows and find ways to use BTC as capital in a larger marketplace. These firms will become the future Bitcoin Banks and also Bitcoin conglomerates. In this exact moment in time the best use of capital is simply buying Bitcoin. It's hard to meaningfully outperform BTC, and as such all these businesses will do for a while is acquire BTC. But eventually that shifts, and these firms will see more incentive to both grow and deploy Bitcoin. They then will provide capital which, among other things, supports Bitcoin businesses and projects. Many people struggle to contextualize the current "land rush" phase with what will come later. You need to take a longer view to understand these firms. The order of operations is also reversed here. Typically you build a business or technology and then as a final step monetize it via an IPO. With Bitcoin, stage 1 is looking more like direct monetization prior to creating value via products, etc. This is deeply counter intuitive to many people in traditional finance, and also to many Bitcoiners. However, because Bitcoin is primarily money at a base level it makes sense the developmental path it is taking differs significantly from other tech. The amount of time it will take for other investors to understand this presents an opportunity for those who see it sooner. More thoughts below 👇

Steven Lubka ☀️

29,287 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce