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this bot has a 92% win rate look at how this bot evaluates probability using Black-Scholes and uses the Kelly Criterion to determine position sizes

sopersone

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22,770 views • 2 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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every polymarket bot is based on this formula the kelly criterion f = (p - m) / (1 - m) p = your true probability m = current market price simple rule, but it works on distance you think edge is about picking winners but the real game is position sizing here's how it works: bot identifies edge: calculates true probability vs market price example flow: bot sees market at 50c (m), calculates real probability at 60% (p) math is simple: edge / remaining upside (0.60 - 0.50) / (1.00 - 0.50) 0.10 / 0.50 = 0.20 kelly says allocate 20% of current capital bot uses quarter kelly for safety = 5% allocation position opens automatically at optimal size as bankroll grows, position sizes scale up proportionally as bankroll shrinks, positions scale down to preserve capital bots are actually destroying manual traders humans can't make calculations instantly bots can the formula ensures maximum growth without risking ruin position sizing adjusts dynamically to current capital this is the foundation of every serious automated strategy

every polymarket bot is based on this formula the kelly criterion f = (p - m) / (1 - m) p = your true probability m = current market price simple rule, but it works on distance you think edge is about picking winners but the real game is position sizing here's how it works: bot identifies edge: calculates true probability vs market price example flow: bot sees market at 50c (m), calculates real probability at 60% (p) math is simple: edge / remaining upside (0.60 - 0.50) / (1.00 - 0.50) 0.10 / 0.50 = 0.20 kelly says allocate 20% of current capital bot uses quarter kelly for safety = 5% allocation position opens automatically at optimal size as bankroll grows, position sizes scale up proportionally as bankroll shrinks, positions scale down to preserve capital bots are actually destroying manual traders humans can't make calculations instantly bots can the formula ensures maximum growth without risking ruin position sizing adjusts dynamically to current capital this is the foundation of every serious automated strategy

ramper

68,794 views • 3 months ago

How to Build and Turn $15k into $1.1M in 20 Days Using Arbitrage Bot Claude Bot scaled a deposit up to $1.1M By trading 5-min and 15-min markets on Polymarket Bot using this strategy: - Mispricing formula - Expected value calculation - Kelly Criterion sizing mispricing found → EV calced → kelly sizing → enter > 25,123 trades > 83.9% win rate > +1.1M profit > Biggest win 33K Check this profile here: Copytrading: If you wish to do the same I have outlined exactly how to create your own bot in my article Which is also where I told the story of how Claude turned $300 into 2.4M in 4 months This week I will write an article “Why your bot isn’t working and how to fix it” So follow and save this post

AdiiX

33,763 views • 2 months ago

It took me a month of working with Polymarket data to build this bot most bots trade everything mine rejects 80% of markets it doesn't predict btc direction it buys BOTH sides when each gets temporarily cheap > YES at 48c > NO at $45c > pair cost: $93c > one side always pays $1.00 > guaranteed 7c profit per pair but entering every market is how you blow up so the bot runs three filters before every trade > base rate: compares current odds to 2 years of historical data > Kelly criterion: calculates EV, if negative - skips > liquidity and spread: volume below $50k or spread above 3% - skips 60 days live: 847 markets scanned 156 entries 71.4% win rate +$2,847 net profit maKe your predictions -> most people lose money not because they trade badly but because they trade where they shouldn't the bot just learned to say "no"

It took me a month of working with Polymarket data to build this bot most bots trade everything mine rejects 80% of markets it doesn't predict btc direction it buys BOTH sides when each gets temporarily cheap > YES at 48c > NO at $45c > pair cost: $93c > one side always pays $1.00 > guaranteed 7c profit per pair but entering every market is how you blow up so the bot runs three filters before every trade > base rate: compares current odds to 2 years of historical data > Kelly criterion: calculates EV, if negative - skips > liquidity and spread: volume below $50k or spread above 3% - skips 60 days live: 847 markets scanned 156 entries 71.4% win rate +$2,847 net profit maKe your predictions -> most people lose money not because they trade badly but because they trade where they shouldn't the bot just learned to say "no"

sopersone

11,151 views • 2 months ago

HOW TO TURN $15K INTO $1.1 MILLION IN JUST 20 DAYS WITH A KILLER ARBITRAGE BOT A sophisticated Claude-powered bot took a starting deposit and scaled it all the way up to $1.1 million. It crushed the 5-minute and 15-min markets on Polymarket using a rock-solid strategy built on: - Mispricing detection formula. - Expected value calculation. - Kelly Criterion position sizing. The flow is simple and deadly effective: mispricing spotted -> EV calculated -> Kelly sizing applied -> position entered. Results speak louder than words: > 25,123 trades executed > 83.9% win rate > +$1.1M pure profit > Biggest single win: $33K 70% win rate, 7 wallets copytrading rn from ~500 monitored, bot never paused, never gambling, just math and profit Giving This Free for 24 hours. To get it: 1. Comment the word 'Claude' 2. Like and Retweet this post 3. Follow me Marry Evan (so i can DM you)

HOW TO TURN $15K INTO $1.1 MILLION IN JUST 20 DAYS WITH A KILLER ARBITRAGE BOT A sophisticated Claude-powered bot took a starting deposit and scaled it all the way up to $1.1 million. It crushed the 5-minute and 15-min markets on Polymarket using a rock-solid strategy built on: - Mispricing detection formula. - Expected value calculation. - Kelly Criterion position sizing. The flow is simple and deadly effective: mispricing spotted -> EV calculated -> Kelly sizing applied -> position entered. Results speak louder than words: > 25,123 trades executed > 83.9% win rate > +$1.1M pure profit > Biggest single win: $33K 70% win rate, 7 wallets copytrading rn from ~500 monitored, bot never paused, never gambling, just math and profit Giving This Free for 24 hours. To get it: 1. Comment the word 'Claude' 2. Like and Retweet this post 3. Follow me Marry Evan (so i can DM you)

Marry Evan

12,422 views • 2 months ago

THIS GUY CONNECTED A NASA SATELLITE TO CLAUDE AND MADE $7,778 Pointed satellite data at 6 countries, the bot found anomalies on its own and traded geopolitics on Polymarket Dropped the entire bot on GitHub, grab it and run 👇

THIS GUY CONNECTED A NASA SATELLITE TO CLAUDE AND MADE $7,778 Pointed satellite data at 6 countries, the bot found anomalies on its own and traded geopolitics on Polymarket Dropped the entire bot on GitHub, grab it and run 👇

sopersone

20,615 views • 2 months ago

HOW TO TURN $15K INTO $1.1 MILLION IN JUST 20 DAYS WITH A KILLER ARBITRAGE BOT A sophisticated Claude-powered bot took a starting deposit and scaled it all the way up to $1.1 million. It crushed the 5-minute and 15-min markets on Polymarket using a rock-solid strategy built on: - Mispricing detection formula. - Expected value calculation. - Kelly Criterion position sizing. The flow is simple and deadly effective: mispricing spotted -> EV calculated -> Kelly sizing applied -> position entered. Results speak louder than words: > 25,123 trades executed > 83.9% win rate > +$1.1M pure profit > Biggest single win: $33K You only need Claude + Device + 1 hour/day. Giving This Free for 24 hours. To get it: 1. Comment What Ever you think about it. ( Mandatory ) 2. Like and Retweet this post 3. Follow me Marry Evan (so i can DM you)

HOW TO TURN $15K INTO $1.1 MILLION IN JUST 20 DAYS WITH A KILLER ARBITRAGE BOT A sophisticated Claude-powered bot took a starting deposit and scaled it all the way up to $1.1 million. It crushed the 5-minute and 15-min markets on Polymarket using a rock-solid strategy built on: - Mispricing detection formula. - Expected value calculation. - Kelly Criterion position sizing. The flow is simple and deadly effective: mispricing spotted -> EV calculated -> Kelly sizing applied -> position entered. Results speak louder than words: > 25,123 trades executed > 83.9% win rate > +$1.1M pure profit > Biggest single win: $33K You only need Claude + Device + 1 hour/day. Giving This Free for 24 hours. To get it: 1. Comment What Ever you think about it. ( Mandatory ) 2. Like and Retweet this post 3. Follow me Marry Evan (so i can DM you)

Marry Evan

19,278 views • 1 month ago

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $537,000 on Polymarket, buying markets for $14.45 His bot combines a hybrid of microstructure scalping, arbitrage, and hedging. It trades short Up/Down markets with limit orders and captures a consistent edge His strategy is simple: > Buys undervalued outcomes relative to his probability model > Builds arbitrage positions when it sees mispricing > Uses the opposite side as a hedge if the price moves against him His Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he gets a 61% win rate and continuously grows his capital

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $537,000 on Polymarket, buying markets for $14.45 His bot combines a hybrid of microstructure scalping, arbitrage, and hedging. It trades short Up/Down markets with limit orders and captures a consistent edge His strategy is simple: > Buys undervalued outcomes relative to his probability model > Builds arbitrage positions when it sees mispricing > Uses the opposite side as a hedge if the price moves against him His Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he gets a 61% win rate and continuously grows his capital

VALIX

28,920 views • 22 days ago

These bot make $15-50k per month on polymarket bot analyze fights in real-time and place bets before crowd reacts every punch and moment makes a big difference it uses computer vision to analyze the fight detects events and processes at 50 FPS with ~200-400 ms latency predicts outcome before market reacts example: Joshua vs Paul fight bot sees Joshua landing heavy punches while crowd hasn't reacted yet odds unchanged bot immediately buys Joshua win 10-15 seconds later when crowd reacts, it sells bot architecture: - Forecaster - evaluates event probability using visual data - Critic - identifies missed context - Trader - makes buy/sell decisions and position sizing to create such a bot you need access to direct video feed of the fight not TV broadcast, but YOLO v8/v9 for real-time detection OpenCV for video stream processing GPU acceleration is critical for low latency UFC events on Polymarket roughly 8-12 per month with that volume the bot could easily make up to $50k

These bot make $15-50k per month on polymarket bot analyze fights in real-time and place bets before crowd reacts every punch and moment makes a big difference it uses computer vision to analyze the fight detects events and processes at 50 FPS with ~200-400 ms latency predicts outcome before market reacts example: Joshua vs Paul fight bot sees Joshua landing heavy punches while crowd hasn't reacted yet odds unchanged bot immediately buys Joshua win 10-15 seconds later when crowd reacts, it sells bot architecture: - Forecaster - evaluates event probability using visual data - Critic - identifies missed context - Trader - makes buy/sell decisions and position sizing to create such a bot you need access to direct video feed of the fight not TV broadcast, but YOLO v8/v9 for real-time detection OpenCV for video stream processing GPU acceleration is critical for low latency UFC events on Polymarket roughly 8-12 per month with that volume the bot could easily make up to $50k

Archive

76,194 views • 5 months ago

$This AI trading bot helped him turn $50 into $1,960 in 6 hours. It trades 5-minute Polymarket rounds using LMSR + Bayesian pricing, then sizes positions with fractional Kelly.$

This AI trading bot helped him turn $50 into $1,960 in 6 hours. It trades 5-minute Polymarket rounds using LMSR + Bayesian pricing, then sizes positions with fractional Kelly.

0xMarioNawfal

149,654 views • 4 months ago

HOW DOES THIS QUANT BOT PRINT $21,389 IN PROFIT PER DAY +$363,618 PnL in 17 days on Polymarket Only on short crypto “Up / Down” markets On Mar 15, this wallet switched to a high-frequency market-making style using Bayesian + Stoikov pricing rule P(H|D) = P(D|H) · P(H) / P(D) Bayesian lets the bot update its internal probability before the market fully reprices the odds This Quant Bot's wallet: Trader funded this account with $14,827 and now sits at roughly 24.5x on deposit (+2,452% ROI) f = (bp - q) / b* - Kelly determines how large the position should be r = s - qγσ²(T - t) - Stoikov handles quote placement and inventory risk An arbitrage bot is not just buying both sides. It is a mathematical engine that detects mispricing, sizes the trade, and controls risk in real time This is what that looks like in practice: $17,839 → $36,318 (+103.58%) $3,112 → $15,011 (+382.22%) $10,676 → $22,178 (+107.74%) The core logic is simple: YES + NO < 100¢

HOW DOES THIS QUANT BOT PRINT $21,389 IN PROFIT PER DAY +$363,618 PnL in 17 days on Polymarket Only on short crypto “Up / Down” markets On Mar 15, this wallet switched to a high-frequency market-making style using Bayesian + Stoikov pricing rule P(H|D) = P(D|H) · P(H) / P(D) Bayesian lets the bot update its internal probability before the market fully reprices the odds This Quant Bot's wallet: Trader funded this account with $14,827 and now sits at roughly 24.5x on deposit (+2,452% ROI) f = (bp - q) / b* - Kelly determines how large the position should be r = s - qγσ²(T - t) - Stoikov handles quote placement and inventory risk An arbitrage bot is not just buying both sides. It is a mathematical engine that detects mispricing, sizes the trade, and controls risk in real time This is what that looks like in practice: $17,839 → $36,318 (+103.58%) $3,112 → $15,011 (+382.22%) $10,676 → $22,178 (+107.74%) The core logic is simple: YES + NO < 100¢

Daniro

45,743 views • 2 months ago

$A small group of quants wrote one formula, launched it on Polymarket and quietly took $20m in a year Their secret fits in one equation: A = e^(-λ₁T - λ₂y - λ₃R) · (1 + γ₀y · 1_{y>0.7}) · e^(-φ₀R²) · sgn(σₕ - κC)(1-C) These aren't random symbols each factor is a filter: > how stale the position is over time > how overheated the market is by returns > how much volatility justifies the entry > which direction to look at all Only if all four factors align the trade exists No "I feel like it". No "I believe in this asset" Just a number positive or not But there is one tool that changes the game completely Top traders on Polymarket are active simultaneously across multiple high-probability markets every day Each trade brings a small win on its own But combining 5-6 of these trades into one parlay you can increase your return from 80% to 400% ROI instead of five small wins That's exactly what this bot does automatically Try here:$

A small group of quants wrote one formula, launched it on Polymarket and quietly took $20m in a year Their secret fits in one equation: A = e^(-λ₁T - λ₂y - λ₃R) · (1 + γ₀y · 1_{y>0.7}) · e^(-φ₀R²) · sgn(σₕ - κC)(1-C) These aren't random symbols each factor is a filter: > how stale the position is over time > how overheated the market is by returns > how much volatility justifies the entry > which direction to look at all Only if all four factors align the trade exists No "I feel like it". No "I believe in this asset" Just a number positive or not But there is one tool that changes the game completely Top traders on Polymarket are active simultaneously across multiple high-probability markets every day Each trade brings a small win on its own But combining 5-6 of these trades into one parlay you can increase your return from 80% to 400% ROI instead of five small wins That's exactly what this bot does automatically Try here:

sopersone

56,779 views • 1 month ago

Someone read my guide on building a Polymarket trading bot in Python built it and just sent me this video 👇 I’m happy haha

Someone read my guide on building a Polymarket trading bot in Python built it and just sent me this video 👇 I’m happy haha

sopersone

138,897 views • 2 months ago

99% winrate: polymarket trader that literally forgets how to lose i found a wallet on Polymarket that feels like a glitch in the simulation his stats: win rate: 99% PnL: $30,000 strategy: manual, disciplined, high-probability trades bet size: ~$10k why this is the perfect copy-trading setup: >99% win rate means you almost never see a "red day" its the perfect setup for those who want steady growth without the stress of drawdowns >this isnt a high-speed bot, you have time to sync and follow without getting crushed by execution speed >at ~$10k per bet, he doesnt move the market. you can copy him using PolyGun and get filled at almost the same prices wallet:

99% winrate: polymarket trader that literally forgets how to lose i found a wallet on Polymarket that feels like a glitch in the simulation his stats: win rate: 99% PnL: $30,000 strategy: manual, disciplined, high-probability trades bet size: ~$10k why this is the perfect copy-trading setup: >99% win rate means you almost never see a "red day" its the perfect setup for those who want steady growth without the stress of drawdowns >this isnt a high-speed bot, you have time to sync and follow without getting crushed by execution speed >at ~$10k per bet, he doesnt move the market. you can copy him using PolyGun and get filled at almost the same prices wallet:

AshenSoul

33,858 views • 4 months ago

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $228,000 on Polymarket His bot makes 141 trades per hour or 2.35 trades per minute and trades the microstructure of short Up/Down markets with a weighted edge of +2.02% His strategy has 3 layers: 1. Trades mispricing using his probability model with a median entry price of 0.33c 2. Buys nearly resolved outcomes at 0.9-0.99c if their fair price should already be around $1.00 3. Uses arbitrage if it sees edge This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he turned $36.3k into $228k in 3 months

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $228,000 on Polymarket His bot makes 141 trades per hour or 2.35 trades per minute and trades the microstructure of short Up/Down markets with a weighted edge of +2.02% His strategy has 3 layers: 1. Trades mispricing using his probability model with a median entry price of 0.33c 2. Buys nearly resolved outcomes at 0.9-0.99c if their fair price should already be around $1.00 3. Uses arbitrage if it sees edge This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he turned $36.3k into $228k in 3 months

VALIX

23,718 views • 15 days ago

Chinese student used AI from Anthropic to turn $1,000 into $1,500,000 He studies at Tsinghua University in Beijing. His account is k9Q2m In such a young age he already make a million simply knowing the right formulas and being able to use Claude Result: $1,430 → $1,550,750 44,364 trades Win rate 100% The biggest win $23,600 on a single bet k9Q2m profile: How it bots work: The bot runs 6 formulas hedge funds use simultaneously, every tick. Most traders guess. This bot calculates. Formula 1 - LMSR Pricing Polymarket prices move on a logarithmic curve. The bot knows the exact price impact before entering. Market says 31¢ for BTC up in 5 minutes. The model sees the curve is mispriced. The bot enters before the correction. Formula 2 - Kelly Criterion Renaissance Capital uses it. Two Sigma uses it. Now your bot uses it. Every bet is sized exactly right. Never too big to blow the account. Never too small to matter. $1,000 bankroll. Consistent edge. Kelly compounds it into something real. Formula 3 - EV Gap Detection The bot scans every BTC market looking for one thing: - Where is the market price wrong by more than 5%? - Market says 30¢. Real probability is 55¢. EV = +0.52. The bot enters. Most people never see this gap. The bot never misses it. Formula 4 - KL-Divergence BTC 5-minute and 15-minute markets are correlated. When they drift apart - that's an arb. The bot measures the statistical distance between them every second. When it crosses 0.2, it flags the trade. This is how hedge funds extracted $100K+ on correlated election markets. The same logic runs here. Formula 5 - Bayesian Updates New block confirmed. Volume spike. Price movement. The bot doesn't ignore signals - it updates. Prior probability was 54%. New data comes in. Posterior jumps to 71%. The bot re-prices in real time while the market is still asleep. Formula 6 - Stoikov Execution Entering at the wrong moment kills the edge. The bot calculates the reservation price-the exact point where the risk-adjusted entry makes sense. It doesn't chase. It doesn't panic. It waits for the right tick, then fills What this means in practice: - Every few seconds the bot runs all six formulas in parallel. - If LMSR confirms mispricing - EV gap is above 5% - Kelly says the bet size is justified - Bayesian posterior agrees - KL-divergence flags the correlated drift - Stoikov clears the execution price Only then does the bot enter. Six filters. One trade. This isn't a trading bot. It's a hedge fund strategy running on a prediction market. The edge is real. The math is public. The difference is most people never build it. Just insert all these formulas into Claude and create your own bot Add this post to bookmarks so you don’t lose it Soon I will publish another bot with working formulas

AdiiX

716,764 views • 3 months ago

Okay here is my bot it never loses and people called my last post a scam. This is 100% real and if you dont believe it so be it. But this is working and banking me $$ everyday. Please explain and or prove how this video was faked, because it is real. How to access this will be out soon. Follow me for more info. Bitcoin trading bot 100% win rate!

Sensitive content

Okay here is my bot it never loses and people called my last post a scam. This is 100% real and if you dont believe it so be it. But this is working and banking me $$ everyday. Please explain and or prove how this video was faked, because it is real. How to access this will be out soon. Follow me for more info. Bitcoin trading bot 100% win rate!

Sam Price

11,501 views • 1 year ago

Take a look at this Mbeumo goal, he has been in the PL for too long and already knows how to position so well to score 😭❤️

Take a look at this Mbeumo goal, he has been in the PL for too long and already knows how to position so well to score 😭❤️

𝙍𝙞𝙘𝙤

570,984 views • 9 months ago

I showed my Polymarket latency bot to a quant friend. He quit his job the next week. $800 → $5,000. Pure latency arbitrage. The bot doesn’t predict outcomes. It’s simply 200 milliseconds faster than the market. The formula is simple: P = Σ(ΔOdds × Size) / Latency_gap The bigger the gap, the better the entry. What’s running under the hood: Connected via API to live sports and political data feeds Receives match results and vote counts before they appear on Polymarket Enters using the Kelly criterion milliseconds before the spread closes Exits automatically once the market converges Win rate: 73% Sharpe ratio: 2.24 About 57 trades per hour Every trade exists inside a ~200 millisecond window. Most people analyze charts. The bot analyzes latency. Charts can be misleading. Milliseconds can’t. Copy trades → you were reading this, the bot likely already closed several more positions.

I showed my Polymarket latency bot to a quant friend. He quit his job the next week. $800 → $5,000. Pure latency arbitrage. The bot doesn’t predict outcomes. It’s simply 200 milliseconds faster than the market. The formula is simple: P = Σ(ΔOdds × Size) / Latency_gap The bigger the gap, the better the entry. What’s running under the hood: Connected via API to live sports and political data feeds Receives match results and vote counts before they appear on Polymarket Enters using the Kelly criterion milliseconds before the spread closes Exits automatically once the market converges Win rate: 73% Sharpe ratio: 2.24 About 57 trades per hour Every trade exists inside a ~200 millisecond window. Most people analyze charts. The bot analyzes latency. Charts can be misleading. Milliseconds can’t. Copy trades → you were reading this, the bot likely already closed several more positions.

Discover

43,198 views • 3 months ago

This trader built a trading bot with Claude and made $295,000 on Polymarket His bot makes 28.8 trades per hour or 1.58 trades per minute and trades the structure of related markets around the same underlying asset price His strategy is simple: > Compares the current ETH/SOL/XRP price with the price on Polymarket > Buys when it sees a gap between fair probability and the order book price > Uses arbitrage if there is edge This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he generates consistent profit and grows his capital

This trader built a trading bot with Claude and made $295,000 on Polymarket His bot makes 28.8 trades per hour or 1.58 trades per minute and trades the structure of related markets around the same underlying asset price His strategy is simple: > Compares the current ETH/SOL/XRP price with the price on Polymarket > Buys when it sees a gap between fair probability and the order book price > Uses arbitrage if there is edge This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he generates consistent profit and grows his capital

VALIX

76,485 views • 1 month ago

I built automated trading bot with Claude Opus... Using 3 prompts it made $117,921 during this dump I've spent over 2 weeks to find 100x prompts... Here's how to start this bot and make $500/day 🧵👇

I built automated trading bot with Claude Opus... Using 3 prompts it made $117,921 during this dump I've spent over 2 weeks to find 100x prompts... Here's how to start this bot and make $500/day 🧵👇

ardizor 🧙‍♂️

118,135 views • 1 month ago