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🚨 This crisis could push multiple countries into recession. Kenneth Rogoff, former IMF chief economist, says prolonged disruption would hit inflation, growth, and financial markets worldwide. He says the longer it lasts, the worse the impact becomes. Kenneth S Rogoff

Mario Nawfal

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40,443 views • 1 month ago •via X (Twitter)

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🚨🇨🇳 Forcing countries to use new currencies could have lasting consequences. Kenneth Rogoff, former IMF chief economist, says once businesses learn to operate outside the dollar, switching again becomes easier. That is how long-term shifts begin. Kenneth S Rogoff

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🚨🇺🇸 This conflict may matter more than trade wars ever did. Kenneth Rogoff, former IMF chief economist, says tariff disputes caused economic splits but this war is causing geopolitical ones. That makes it far more serious. Kenneth S Rogoff

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🇺🇸 THE DEBT BOMB: THE GREATEST THREAT TO NATIONAL SECURITY Forget foreign adversaries: the single biggest threat to the United States is its own $34+ trillion debt. Prof Kenneth Rogoff argues that the "free lunch" era of low interest rates is officially over. As the dollar’s dominance as the global anchor slips, the cost of sustaining our debt will skyrocket, triggering a crisis that could destabilize the entire global financial system. Kenneth S Rogoff

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Japan was richer per capita than the US in the late 1980s. Today it sits at the bottom among developed countries. How does an economic superpower fall this far and never recover? Kenneth Rogoff (former Chief Economist of IMF) walked me through what he believes was a catastrophic mistake. In 1985, the US pressured Japan to rapidly strengthen the yen and liberalize its financial markets through the Plaza Accord. The yen doubled in value in just 3 years. To offset the economic shock, Japan slashed interest rates and flooded the economy with cheap credit. Japanese banks, suddenly freed from decades of tight regulation, went on a lending spree. They poured money into real estate and stocks with little risk assessment. Japan's stock market became worth more than the US stock market despite having half the population. The total value of Japanese real estate was 4 times the value of all US real estate. When the bubble burst in 1991, banks were left with massive bad loans. The entire financial system seized up, creating a "lost decade" of deflation and stagnation. Here's what stunned me: Rogoff estimates Japan would be 50% wealthier per person today without this crisis. I didn't grasp before this interview how devastating financial crises are. They don't just cause a temporary recession - they permanently alter a country's growth trajectory. Three decades later, Japan still hasn't recovered. Full interview with Kenneth S Rogoff out tomorrow.

Japan was richer per capita than the US in the late 1980s. Today it sits at the bottom among developed countries. How does an economic superpower fall this far and never recover? Kenneth Rogoff (former Chief Economist of IMF) walked me through what he believes was a catastrophic mistake. In 1985, the US pressured Japan to rapidly strengthen the yen and liberalize its financial markets through the Plaza Accord. The yen doubled in value in just 3 years. To offset the economic shock, Japan slashed interest rates and flooded the economy with cheap credit. Japanese banks, suddenly freed from decades of tight regulation, went on a lending spree. They poured money into real estate and stocks with little risk assessment. Japan's stock market became worth more than the US stock market despite having half the population. The total value of Japanese real estate was 4 times the value of all US real estate. When the bubble burst in 1991, banks were left with massive bad loans. The entire financial system seized up, creating a "lost decade" of deflation and stagnation. Here's what stunned me: Rogoff estimates Japan would be 50% wealthier per person today without this crisis. I didn't grasp before this interview how devastating financial crises are. They don't just cause a temporary recession - they permanently alter a country's growth trajectory. Three decades later, Japan still hasn't recovered. Full interview with Kenneth S Rogoff out tomorrow.

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426,593 views • 1 year ago

New episode with Kenneth S Rogoff, former chief economist of the IMF. Ken predicts that, within the next decade, the US will have a debt-induced inflation crisis, but not a Japan-type financial crisis (the latter is much worse, and can make a country poorer for generations). Ken explains how China is trapped: in order to solve their current problems, they keep leaning on financial repression and state-directed investment, which only makes their situation worse. Available on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, etc. Enjoy! 00:00:00 – China is stagnating 00:25:46 – How the US broke Japan's economy 00:37:06 – America's inflation crisis is coming 01:02:20 – Will AGI solve the US deficit? 01:07:11 – Why interest rates will go up 01:10:55 – US equities will underperform 01:22:24 – The erosion of dollar dominance

New episode with Kenneth S Rogoff, former chief economist of the IMF. Ken predicts that, within the next decade, the US will have a debt-induced inflation crisis, but not a Japan-type financial crisis (the latter is much worse, and can make a country poorer for generations). Ken explains how China is trapped: in order to solve their current problems, they keep leaning on financial repression and state-directed investment, which only makes their situation worse. Available on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, etc. Enjoy! 00:00:00 – China is stagnating 00:25:46 – How the US broke Japan's economy 00:37:06 – America's inflation crisis is coming 01:02:20 – Will AGI solve the US deficit? 01:07:11 – Why interest rates will go up 01:10:55 – US equities will underperform 01:22:24 – The erosion of dollar dominance

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NEW If the war in the Gulf isn't resolved the world economy will slide into recession, says the chief economist of the IMF. "It could get really bad... we're not there yet... but every day this situation continues we're drifting towards the adverse scenario - maybe worse." 👇

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If the disruption lasts long enough, the consequences could be serious and widespread. According to former White House energy adviser Bob McNally, a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would almost certainly trigger a global recession.

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