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This grab from Ceddanne Rafaela yesterday had a 25% catch probability. He's now tied with Pete Crow-Armstrong for the most 5-Star catches (0-25%) in baseball this year with 8.

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Tyler Milliken

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Another day, another 5-star catch for Pete Crow-Armstrong. This one Wednesday night. His 9th on the season in 13 opportunities. 25% catch probability on this ball from Statcast. The magic happens before the camera is on him. Pete is #1 in average outfield jump by a good amount.
0:13

Another day, another 5-star catch for Pete Crow-Armstrong. This one Wednesday night. His 9th on the season in 13 opportunities. 25% catch probability on this ball from Statcast. The magic happens before the camera is on him. Pete is #1 in average outfield jump by a good amount.

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This play had a 0% catch probability and a 0% catch actuality (but only just barely)! Pete Crow-Armstrong is going to spoil the curve for lesser outfielders!
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This play had a 0% catch probability and a 0% catch actuality (but only just barely)! Pete Crow-Armstrong is going to spoil the curve for lesser outfielders!

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Catch of the Day- By the Numbers The first 5-star catch of the season for the reigning champ, Pete Crow-Armstrong! PCA did what he does best, making a 5% probability play look much easier than it was. 69 feet in 3.9 seconds with a smooth sliding grab.
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Catch of the Day- By the Numbers The first 5-star catch of the season for the reigning champ, Pete Crow-Armstrong! PCA did what he does best, making a 5% probability play look much easier than it was. 69 feet in 3.9 seconds with a smooth sliding grab.

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What got lost this weekend was that Pete Crow-Armstrong made two 5-star catches in the Dodgers series. That’s tied for the most by any player all season and more than the entire Dodgers outfield combined. He’s up to five on the year.
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What got lost this weekend was that Pete Crow-Armstrong made two 5-star catches in the Dodgers series. That’s tied for the most by any player all season and more than the entire Dodgers outfield combined. He’s up to five on the year.

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Players with 25 HR & 25 SB before the All-Star break 🤩 • Bobby Bonds - 1973 • Eric Davis - 1987 • PETE CROW-ARMSTRONG - 2025
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Players with 25 HR & 25 SB before the All-Star break 🤩 • Bobby Bonds - 1973 • Eric Davis - 1987 • PETE CROW-ARMSTRONG - 2025

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Dean's Top 10 Centerfielders For 2026 (Right Now) 1. Julio Rodriguez 2. Pete Crow-Armstrong 3. Jackson Merrill 4. Jackson Chourio 5. Byron Buxton 6. Ceddanne Rafaela 7. Andy Pages 8. Jung Hoo Lee 9. Jo Adell 10. Oneil Cruz
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Dean's Top 10 Centerfielders For 2026 (Right Now) 1. Julio Rodriguez 2. Pete Crow-Armstrong 3. Jackson Merrill 4. Jackson Chourio 5. Byron Buxton 6. Ceddanne Rafaela 7. Andy Pages 8. Jung Hoo Lee 9. Jo Adell 10. Oneil Cruz

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By request, the five five-star plays Pete Crow-Armstrong DID NOT catch this season. He caught the other ten. A thread. 🧵 #1- Jackson Merrill single. (5%)
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By request, the five five-star plays Pete Crow-Armstrong DID NOT catch this season. He caught the other ten. A thread. 🧵 #1- Jackson Merrill single. (5%)

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Adolis Garcia with a 4-star grab on this play, just a 30% catch probability. No 4 or 5-star grabs for the Phils RF in all of 2025, got one in the first series of 2026. This just would have been a routine single last year.
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Adolis Garcia with a 4-star grab on this play, just a 30% catch probability. No 4 or 5-star grabs for the Phils RF in all of 2025, got one in the first series of 2026. This just would have been a routine single last year.

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Pete Crow-Armstrong did it again yesterday, snagging this Mike Trout rocket that had a catch probability of just 35%. Nobody makes plays look easier (so easy that many don't believe the numbers). Just check out how fast he's already moving when the camera gets to him, his brilliance is in the first second of the play into his top 1% speed.
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Pete Crow-Armstrong did it again yesterday, snagging this Mike Trout rocket that had a catch probability of just 35%. Nobody makes plays look easier (so easy that many don't believe the numbers). Just check out how fast he's already moving when the camera gets to him, his brilliance is in the first second of the play into his top 1% speed.

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As I suspected last night, Andy Pages' robbery of Austin Wells was one of his best catches of the season. Statcast has it at 15% catch probability, with Pages going 63 feet in 3.8 seconds to make the grab. It's his fourth 5-star catch of the year.
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As I suspected last night, Andy Pages' robbery of Austin Wells was one of his best catches of the season. Statcast has it at 15% catch probability, with Pages going 63 feet in 3.8 seconds to make the grab. It's his fourth 5-star catch of the year.

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Pete Crow-Armstrong is a wizard in CF! Two plays! 🧵 Play One: How good is PCA? This ball (a single) had a ZERO PERCENT catch probability! He covered an insane 43 feet in his "jump", and the play didn't even last long enough to be considered a full jump!
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Pete Crow-Armstrong is a wizard in CF! Two plays! 🧵 Play One: How good is PCA? This ball (a single) had a ZERO PERCENT catch probability! He covered an insane 43 feet in his "jump", and the play didn't even last long enough to be considered a full jump!

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Daulton Varsho: *3rd 5% catch probability catch of his career *6th 5% catch probability catch by a Jay in the Statcast era (Varsho only guy with more than 1) *14th 5% catch probability catch in MLB this season (Varsho 1 of 2 players with more than 1) #PlatinumGlove
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Daulton Varsho: *3rd 5% catch probability catch of his career *6th 5% catch probability catch by a Jay in the Statcast era (Varsho only guy with more than 1) *14th 5% catch probability catch in MLB this season (Varsho 1 of 2 players with more than 1) #PlatinumGlove

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Pete Crow-Armstrong's kryptonite? A 116 MPH rocket off the bat of James Wood gets over PCA's head. 40% catch probability on this one, -10.8 jump below average. He's human after all.
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Pete Crow-Armstrong's kryptonite? A 116 MPH rocket off the bat of James Wood gets over PCA's head. 40% catch probability on this one, -10.8 jump below average. He's human after all.

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Watching an inside the park home run is one of the most exciting plays in baseball. Seeing Pete-Crow Armstrong hit one while only taking 8 seconds from first base to homeplate is absolutely insane to me.
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Watching an inside the park home run is one of the most exciting plays in baseball. Seeing Pete-Crow Armstrong hit one while only taking 8 seconds from first base to homeplate is absolutely insane to me.

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This is the kind of play that eye testers have a hard time with, but also shows why catch probability is so useful. This ball had just a 55% catch probability, and is just made to look so easy by Ceddanne Rafaela. It's all about what you don't see on the screen, because it happens before the camera is on the play. The jump is 9.0 feet above average. He was positioned well into right-center. Lesser outfielders win catch on the week on this one with a full extension dive.
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This is the kind of play that eye testers have a hard time with, but also shows why catch probability is so useful. This ball had just a 55% catch probability, and is just made to look so easy by Ceddanne Rafaela. It's all about what you don't see on the screen, because it happens before the camera is on the play. The jump is 9.0 feet above average. He was positioned well into right-center. Lesser outfielders win catch on the week on this one with a full extension dive.

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Michael Harris II with the diving grab this evening in Atlanta: 80% catch probability. Why did it look so tough? -5.3 feet below average on the jump, and that's against all OF, not just CF. Tough sun for sure. The broadcast with an excellent theory, they cut to Andruw Jones with "he's probably saying he catches this standing up"! Still a fun catch and exciting finish. Please don't think you're not allowed to love a catch because of what the metrics are. Harris II always tends to catch the ball, the most important thing!
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Michael Harris II with the diving grab this evening in Atlanta: 80% catch probability. Why did it look so tough? -5.3 feet below average on the jump, and that's against all OF, not just CF. Tough sun for sure. The broadcast with an excellent theory, they cut to Andruw Jones with "he's probably saying he catches this standing up"! Still a fun catch and exciting finish. Please don't think you're not allowed to love a catch because of what the metrics are. Harris II always tends to catch the ball, the most important thing!

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"Pete Crow-Armstrong, who gets the best jumps of just about anybody in the world". Statcast agrees, with PCA averaging 5.1 feet above average on his jumps (#1 by a good amount, almost all of that before the camera is on him). Makes the "catch" look quite easy because it is. 35% out probability on this ball:
0:11

"Pete Crow-Armstrong, who gets the best jumps of just about anybody in the world". Statcast agrees, with PCA averaging 5.1 feet above average on his jumps (#1 by a good amount, almost all of that before the camera is on him). Makes the "catch" look quite easy because it is. 35% out probability on this ball:

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Andy Pages made the first 5-star catch of the season last night, just a 5% catch probability on this one according to Statcast! Pages covered 93 feet in 4.9 seconds with the sliding grab. Add a big homer to his +1.2 OAA and Pages is off to a great start!
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Andy Pages made the first 5-star catch of the season last night, just a 5% catch probability on this one according to Statcast! Pages covered 93 feet in 4.9 seconds with the sliding grab. Add a big homer to his +1.2 OAA and Pages is off to a great start!

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