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This guy built a Bayesian Quant model and it made $1,362 a day on Polymarket The result is already +$29,972 PnL in 22 days with only $29 per average trade, repeating the same setup 9 times every hour across BTC "Up or Down" markets Several AI agents can handle... probability, sizing and execution: 1. Every new BTC signal updates the probability through Bayes The model starts with a prior probability and updates it whenever new market data arrives: P(A|B) = P(B|A) × P(A) / P(B) If BTC momentum strengthens and the model moves fair Up from 54% to 62% while Polymarket still trades at 53¢, the system sees a 9¢ gap 2. Kelly decides position size f* = (bp - q) / b Where: p = model probability of winning q = 1 - p b = net payout for each unit risked f* = suggested fraction to allocate Higher probability and better payout increase f*, while a weaker edge pushes it toward zero This trader’s Polymarket account: tiredofwinning2much Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this bot: 4,948 predictions with a 51% win rate Most profitable trades: $260 → $615 (+$355) $253 → $602 (+$349) $227 → $560 (+$333) A similar Bayesian Quant setup can be built with Grok Bot, using AI agents for probability updates, sizing and executionshow more

Daniro

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60,654 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat •via X (Twitter)

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6 Kommentare

Profilbild von SkyDrop

SkyDropvor 1 Monat

$29 average trade turning into nearly $30K PnL in 22 days is wild 👀 The Bayesian + Kelly approach makes this especially interesting. Definitely one to watch.

Profilbild von Daniro

Danirovor 1 Monat

Although this trader has a small winning percentage and a small average trade size, frequently placing and executing limit orders allows him to build a large position, and both sides are yes and no, the main thing is that <100

Profilbild von VALIX

VALIXvor 1 Monat

This is a really interesting way to use Kelly with a Bayesian model

Profilbild von Daniro

Danirovor 1 Monat

They form the basis of the software's risk / reward system, that is, they evaluate risks and potential profits. The bot also use time arbitrage and an entire ecosystem of servers and AI models, which allows them to make over 1k PNL every day

Profilbild von Verilla.eth

Verilla.ethvor 1 Monat

挺不错

Profilbild von Lea Thompson

Lea Thompsonvor 1 Monat

CoinStats tracks my real PnL, not some Bayesian probability gap theory. Show me actual settlement volume.

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56,687 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $53 Result: +$129,923 His bot trades short-term BTC/ETH Up/Down markets using a hybrid of two-sided market making, complete-set accumulation, and inventory rebalancing: 1. It accumulates Up and Down at different points during the market It keeps BUY orders on both sides and uses intramarket volatility to get fills at different prices For example: > Up = 47c -> some time later Down = 52c > Up + Down = 99c -> 1c gross edge 2. It leaves a small directional residual After forming complete sets, it keeps some directional exposure when its own fair probability model sees an edge based on: > Underlying asset data from external sources > Order book depth > Momentum, acceleration, and volatility His Polymarket nickname: Polkadot-Frog Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this bot: The main edge of his HFT algorithm comes from repeating the same cycle over and over again That’s how he captures a consistent edge and steadily grows his capital

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $53 Result: +$129,923 His bot trades short-term BTC/ETH Up/Down markets using a hybrid of two-sided market making, complete-set accumulation, and inventory rebalancing: 1. It accumulates Up and Down at different points during the market It keeps BUY orders on both sides and uses intramarket volatility to get fills at different prices For example: > Up = 47c -> some time later Down = 52c > Up + Down = 99c -> 1c gross edge 2. It leaves a small directional residual After forming complete sets, it keeps some directional exposure when its own fair probability model sees an edge based on: > Underlying asset data from external sources > Order book depth > Momentum, acceleration, and volatility His Polymarket nickname: Polkadot-Frog Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this bot: The main edge of his HFT algorithm comes from repeating the same cycle over and over again That’s how he captures a consistent edge and steadily grows his capital

VALIX

69,430 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $146,756 on Polymarket His bot makes 90 trades per hour and combines a hybrid of directional trading and two-sided arbitrage His strategy is simple: > Uses limit orders > Finds mispricing with his probability model > Buys the opposite side as a hedge or when it sees an arbitrage opportunity This guy’s Polymarket username: almach Using this strategy and high-quality execution, he turned $20k into $146.8k in 2 months of trading

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $146,756 on Polymarket His bot makes 90 trades per hour and combines a hybrid of directional trading and two-sided arbitrage His strategy is simple: > Uses limit orders > Finds mispricing with his probability model > Buys the opposite side as a hedge or when it sees an arbitrage opportunity This guy’s Polymarket username: almach Using this strategy and high-quality execution, he turned $20k into $146.8k in 2 months of trading

VALIX

29,142 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten