This guy built a Quant Kalman Filter and it made $521 a day on Polymarket The result is already +$10,418 PnL in 20 days across 7,437 predictions, repeating the same setup 15 times every hour across crypto "Up or Down" markets The software filters short term noise before recalculating... probability: This trader’s Polymarket account: 7,437 predictions with a 54% win rate 1. Kalman decides how much of each move is real signal A simplified update: x(new) = x(old) + K × [y - x(old)] Where: x = filtered estimate y = latest market observation K = how strongly new data changes the estimate One random spike barely moves the model Several confirming moves pull the estimate much faster 2. The filtered move becomes a fair Up or Down probability For example: Filtered Down = 64% Market Down = 53¢ Edge = 11¢ If new data keeps confirming Down, the system can continue building the position If the move gets classified as noise, the estimate moves back and the next order disappears Most profitable trades: $808 → $1,529 (+$721) $270 → $965 (+$695) $291 → $886 (+$595) A similar Kalman workflow can be coordinated with Grok Bot while external tools handle live crypto data and executionshow more

what's the hit rate on the 15x hourly setup?

Wow how did ppl came out with this idea

Wow, that's impressive! Automating trading strategies can be lucrative if done right. I wonder how much effort went into building and fine-tuning that filter.

小盘Up or Down市场15次/小时的挂单成交率怎么样，11¢的edge扣完滑点还剩多少？

That’s looks sick !

$521 a day is solid, but the high frequency could lead to increased risk

I read about the Kalman filter. Not an easy concept. If you’re a mere mortal, only AI can help with something like this.

This is a complex mathematical model, and it is being developed by hedge funds. Only AI can help here

I tried to reproduce a ready-made academic Kalman strategy with my AI, and it just gave up on it. Though I think some models should be able to handle it, especially if you break it down into parts

Sounds cool! You could try giving each agent its own task and breaking this model down into several smaller parts

nice strategy buddy

54% sounds tiny until you see the volume

That's right, in an arbitrage strategy the winning percentage isn't that important because you lose and win roughly the same number of times due to the bot constantly buying both sides of the yes+no trade

if that setup can sustain these gains, it might attract a lot of followers fast

真不错

If they would have done it, they wouldn't talk about it.