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This guy built a Quant Kalman Filter and it made $521 a day on Polymarket The result is already +$10,418 PnL in 20 days across 7,437 predictions, repeating the same setup 15 times every hour across crypto "Up or Down" markets The software filters short term noise before recalculating...

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Daniro

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18,211 Aufrufe • vor 8 Tagen •via X (Twitter)

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16 Kommentare

Profilbild von Sophia l
Sophia lvor 8 Tagen

what's the hit rate on the 15x hourly setup?

Profilbild von Retard
Retardvor 8 Tagen

Wow how did ppl came out with this idea

Profilbild von Sofía
Sofíavor 8 Tagen

Wow, that's impressive! Automating trading strategies can be lucrative if done right. I wonder how much effort went into building and fine-tuning that filter.

Profilbild von sanhe
sanhevor 8 Tagen

小盘Up or Down市场15次/小时的挂单成交率怎么样，11¢的edge扣完滑点还剩多少？

Profilbild von Zaba
Zabavor 8 Tagen

That’s looks sick !

Profilbild von Brian Hadu
Brian Haduvor 8 Tagen

$521 a day is solid, but the high frequency could lead to increased risk

Profilbild von qwinsi
qwinsivor 8 Tagen

I read about the Kalman filter. Not an easy concept. If you’re a mere mortal, only AI can help with something like this.

Profilbild von Daniro
Danirovor 8 Tagen

This is a complex mathematical model, and it is being developed by hedge funds. Only AI can help here

Profilbild von qwinsi
qwinsivor 8 Tagen

I tried to reproduce a ready-made academic Kalman strategy with my AI, and it just gave up on it. Though I think some models should be able to handle it, especially if you break it down into parts

Profilbild von Daniro
Danirovor 8 Tagen

Sounds cool! You could try giving each agent its own task and breaking this model down into several smaller parts

Profilbild von Iron Mind
Iron Mindvor 7 Tagen

nice strategy buddy

Profilbild von kaminoontee
kaminoonteevor 8 Tagen

54% sounds tiny until you see the volume

Profilbild von Daniro
Danirovor 8 Tagen

That's right, in an arbitrage strategy the winning percentage isn't that important because you lose and win roughly the same number of times due to the bot constantly buying both sides of the yes+no trade

Profilbild von Brjan | AI Builder
Brjan | AI Buildervor 8 Tagen

if that setup can sustain these gains, it might attract a lot of followers fast

Profilbild von 0xSLEEPY
0xSLEEPYvor 8 Tagen

真不错

Profilbild von David R. Prasser
David R. Prasservor 7 Tagen

If they would have done it, they wouldn't talk about it.

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This trader used Claude to build a Quant Bot and made +$232,136 on Polymarket Since Mar 25, this wallet has been averaging about $3,180 in profit per day and a little over 7 trades per hour 13,070 predictions with a 47% win rate in 73 days This trader’s Polymarket account: This trader has put in $248.9K in deposits, which puts him at roughly +93% ROI The bot strategy is simple: >It waits for prices to lag behind the move gets filled before the market fully catches up >Then keeps recycling the same setup across many entries >One trade is not the story here. The result comes from repeating the same edge over and over until it compounds into a large PnL Most profitable trades: $6,757 → $24,330 (+$17,573, +260.06%) $7,597 → $23,943 (+$16,346, +215.15%) $11,472 → $27,672 (+$16,200, +141.21%) It is a repeatable process: find the lag, enter early, and keep pressing the same advantage until the gap disappears

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This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $537,000 on Polymarket, buying markets for $14.45 His bot combines a hybrid of microstructure scalping, arbitrage, and hedging. It trades short Up/Down markets with limit orders and captures a consistent edge His strategy is simple: > Buys undervalued outcomes relative to his probability model > Builds arbitrage positions when it sees mispricing > Uses the opposite side as a hedge if the price moves against him His Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he gets a 61% win rate and continuously grows his capital
0:38

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $537,000 on Polymarket, buying markets for $14.45 His bot combines a hybrid of microstructure scalping, arbitrage, and hedging. It trades short Up/Down markets with limit orders and captures a consistent edge His strategy is simple: > Buys undervalued outcomes relative to his probability model > Builds arbitrage positions when it sees mispricing > Uses the opposite side as a hedge if the price moves against him His Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he gets a 61% win rate and continuously grows his capital

VALIX

30,078 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $210,000 on Polymarket with an average trade size of $5.70 His bot makes 235 trades per hour, or 3.91 trades per minute, and trades the microstructure of short-term crypto Up/Down markets His strategy has six steps: 1. Records the asset’s opening price at the start of each market 2. Recalculates the probability of Up and Down based on live spot prices 3. Places limit orders across multiple price levels 4. When market momentum shifts, rebuilds the order grid and starts buying the opposite outcome 5. Hedges part of the original position while keeping directional exposure aligned with the current signal 6. In the final seconds, occasionally buys the nearly certain outcome at 98-99c This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he consistently captures an edge and keeps growing his deposit
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This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $210,000 on Polymarket with an average trade size of $5.70 His bot makes 235 trades per hour, or 3.91 trades per minute, and trades the microstructure of short-term crypto Up/Down markets His strategy has six steps: 1. Records the asset’s opening price at the start of each market 2. Recalculates the probability of Up and Down based on live spot prices 3. Places limit orders across multiple price levels 4. When market momentum shifts, rebuilds the order grid and starts buying the opposite outcome 5. Hedges part of the original position while keeping directional exposure aligned with the current signal 6. In the final seconds, occasionally buys the nearly certain outcome at 98-99c This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he consistently captures an edge and keeps growing his deposit

VALIX

79,237 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $28.64 Result: +$183,980 His bot trades 5 and 15 minute crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid of directional trading, dynamic hedging, and volatility harvesting: 1. It looks for edge using its own fair-value model The model takes into account distance from the opening price, volatility, momentum, acceleration, order flow, and external spot/perp data It enters a position when it detects mispricing. As the signal gets stronger, it gradually increases its position 2. When the price reverses, it builds a hedge using the opposite outcome If the underlying asset changes direction, it doesn’t sell its existing inventory. Instead, it starts buying the opposite side This turns part of the existing position into a hedge, while its new directional exposure shifts according to the current fair-value estimate You can build your own trading bot here: (Trial period available after registration) This HFT algorithm’s Polymarket nickname: std0 Its main edge comes from constantly repricing probabilities and properly managing its positions
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This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $28.64 Result: +$183,980 His bot trades 5 and 15 minute crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid of directional trading, dynamic hedging, and volatility harvesting: 1. It looks for edge using its own fair-value model The model takes into account distance from the opening price, volatility, momentum, acceleration, order flow, and external spot/perp data It enters a position when it detects mispricing. As the signal gets stronger, it gradually increases its position 2. When the price reverses, it builds a hedge using the opposite outcome If the underlying asset changes direction, it doesn’t sell its existing inventory. Instead, it starts buying the opposite side This turns part of the existing position into a hedge, while its new directional exposure shifts according to the current fair-value estimate You can build your own trading bot here: (Trial period available after registration) This HFT algorithm’s Polymarket nickname: std0 Its main edge comes from constantly repricing probabilities and properly managing its positions

VALIX

131,090 Aufrufe • vor 23 Tagen

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $23.59 Result: +$246,578 The bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets using dynamic hedging and a directional residual: 1. First buys the outcome its model considers underpriced It continuously estimates the fair probabilities of Up and Down and compares them with prices on Polymarket The bot builds a position whenever it detects a mispricing 2. Buys the opposite side when the signal changes If the underlying asset reverses, it does not close its initial position. Instead, it starts accumulating the opposite outcome It bought both sides in 90% of markets 3. Turns part of the position into complete sets below $1 In two-sided markets, the median combined cost of Up and Down is 94.5c But this is not pure arbitrage The median inventory imbalance is 40%, so after pairing both sides, the algorithm is left with a directional residual Its Polymarket account: pspspsps5 You can build your own trading bot here: (A trial is available after signing up) The main edge of this HFT algorithm comes from continuously shifting directional exposure as its fair probability estimates change, while purchases of the opposite outcome function either as a hedge or as part of a complete set
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This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $23.59 Result: +$246,578 The bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets using dynamic hedging and a directional residual: 1. First buys the outcome its model considers underpriced It continuously estimates the fair probabilities of Up and Down and compares them with prices on Polymarket The bot builds a position whenever it detects a mispricing 2. Buys the opposite side when the signal changes If the underlying asset reverses, it does not close its initial position. Instead, it starts accumulating the opposite outcome It bought both sides in 90% of markets 3. Turns part of the position into complete sets below $1 In two-sided markets, the median combined cost of Up and Down is 94.5c But this is not pure arbitrage The median inventory imbalance is 40%, so after pairing both sides, the algorithm is left with a directional residual Its Polymarket account: pspspsps5 You can build your own trading bot here: (A trial is available after signing up) The main edge of this HFT algorithm comes from continuously shifting directional exposure as its fair probability estimates change, while purchases of the opposite outcome function either as a hedge or as part of a complete set

VALIX

75,724 Aufrufe • vor 4 Tagen