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This guy built a Quant SPRT model and it made $620 a day on Polymarket The result is already +$81,815 PnL in 132 days with only $91 per average trade, repeating the same setup 15 times every hour across BTC "Up or Down" markets The system waits for enough... evidence before committing to Up or Down 1. Every new BTC signal adds evidence to one side A simplified Sequential Probability Ratio Test can use: L = Σ log[P(signal | Up) / P(signal | Down)] Each new signal shifts L toward Up or Down No trade happens until the score reaches a decision boundary 2. Two thresholds decide whether to trade or keep waiting For example: L > +3 → Buy Up -3 < L < +3 → No trade L < -3 → Buy Down So random BTC noise can stay inside the middle zone without triggering an order Only a sequence of signals strong enough to break either boundary creates the entry This trader’s Polymarket account: lkkdnfa Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this bot: Most profitable trades: $568 → $2,046 (+$1,478) $1,054 → $2,188 (+$1,135) $575 → $1,658 (+$1,083) A similar evidence based workflow can be coordinated with Grok Bot while external tools provide the market data and executionshow more

Daniro

5,608 subscribers

10,283 Aufrufe • vor 14 Tagen •via X (Twitter)

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8 Kommentare

Profilbild von Cole

Colevor 14 Tagen

$91 average size, 15 trades an hour, 132 days. that reads like an ad for a sniper bot telegram channel linked underneath it, rather than a strategy writeup. curious if the $620/day is backtested or live fills.

Profilbild von Catcher of your mind

Catcher of your mindvor 14 Tagen

this perfomance so cool, by anyway just added this trader a my watch list

Profilbild von Daniro

Danirovor 14 Tagen

Thanks, I appreciate it. This guy has a series of accounts where he trades the same patterns. I've seen this happen a couple of times

Profilbild von Shark Radar

Shark Radarvor 14 Tagen

15 of the same setup every hour is an execution loop. if you can't see fill quality and when it kills itself, the daily number is just a poster.

Profilbild von predit.market

predit.marketvor 14 Tagen

$91 sizing is doing more work than the model

Profilbild von Eridani

Eridanivor 14 Tagen

@grok explain how it's bullshit

Profilbild von T0dayIsntTheDay🗣🗣🗣

T0dayIsntTheDay🗣🗣🗣vor 14 Tagen

He's a Shnake Shnake..... @grok .... Answered not. What is real The account lkkdnfa exists on Polymarket. It trades BTC “Up or Down” 5-minute markets all day. Independent trackers put it around $61k–$80k profit, ~$8.5M volume, ~54% win rate, ~82 days live — not the 132 days and $81,815 the post claims. Polydata It is a high-frequency market-maker style book: ~12 entries per market, 87% maker orders, tiny edge (~1 cent per dollar risked), 38% max drawdown. That is grinding, not a magic SPRT switch. What is fake or padded The “Quant SPRT model made $620 a day” write-up is the same template this guy posts every day with a new name: Signal Stack, Monte Carlo, Resolution model, Grok Bot MM. Same structure, different wallet, same Telegram bot link at the bottom. The video is a made-up “GROK DESK” dashboard. That is not official Grok Bot. It is a graphic. $91 average trade × 15 trades an hour × 132 days does not match the live wallet stats. One reply on the post already called it an ad. Bottom line A real Polymarket wallet is profitable on short BTC binaries. The post is an affiliate funnel selling a copy-trade bot on top of that wallet. Same class of pitch as the $49 → $4,391 “Grok Bot / Fomo” clip you sent first. Do not click the bot link. Do not send it money. A $50 bankroll will not reproduce that book.

Profilbild von paulrodturner

paulrodturnervor 14 Tagen

SPRT is real stats. “$620 a day, 15 trades an hour, follow this bot” is the ad. $91 average size and a 132-day curve without fills, fees, or drawdowns is a screenshot, not a strategy. Same account already ran the article-plus-wallet template last month. If the edge held at that frequency they wouldn’t need a referral link under the formula.

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He built a trading bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$198,045 in 4 months His bot trades the microstructure of short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid high-frequency strategy with 3 core elements: 1. Builds a directional position by choosing the Up or Down outcome that is currently undervalued relative to his model 2. If the market movement changes, it starts buying the opposite side as a hedge or to flip the position 3. If it sees an arbitrage opportunity, it builds a full set of Up and Down His Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures a consistent edge and repeats it thousands of times That’s how he keeps growing his capital

He built a trading bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$198,045 in 4 months His bot trades the microstructure of short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid high-frequency strategy with 3 core elements: 1. Builds a directional position by choosing the Up or Down outcome that is currently undervalued relative to his model 2. If the market movement changes, it starts buying the opposite side as a hedge or to flip the position 3. If it sees an arbitrage opportunity, it builds a full set of Up and Down His Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures a consistent edge and repeats it thousands of times That’s how he keeps growing his capital

VALIX

28,577 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$143,740 in 3 months His bot trades crypto Up/Down markets using a strategy built around 3 elements: 1. Compares current Polymarket prices with the underlying asset price from external sources 2. Buys the more likely outcome based on his model 3. When market conditions change, hedges the original entry by buying the opposite side His Polymarket username: antsaslyku Using this strategy and clean execution, he captures a consistent edge and repeats it thousands of times That’s how he turned $68k into $143.7k

This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$143,740 in 3 months His bot trades crypto Up/Down markets using a strategy built around 3 elements: 1. Compares current Polymarket prices with the underlying asset price from external sources 2. Buys the more likely outcome based on his model 3. When market conditions change, hedges the original entry by buying the opposite side His Polymarket username: antsaslyku Using this strategy and clean execution, he captures a consistent edge and repeats it thousands of times That’s how he turned $68k into $143.7k

VALIX

14,753 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

I interviewed the dev of the best Polymarket bot His bot trades BTC Up/Down markets automatically 24/7 Result? +$650k each month passively Here're the tips he gave me on how to create the same bot: First thing: stop trying to predict Better build a system that reacts. His bot doesn’t guess tops or bottoms, but waits for confluence. Core stack: • EMA (defines trend: filters chop) • VWAP (shows fair value: avoid bad entries) • OBV (confirms money flow: no volume = no trade) • RSI (detects extremes: don’t buy highs or sell lows) • MACD (confirms momentum) Then he adds a volatility filter. Most bots die because they trade in dead or chaotic markets. His doesn’t. Risk model is everything: • fixed % per trade • no overtrading • strict cooldown after losses And the real edge: the bot trades only when 3-4 signals align at once No signal = no trade. His wallet address: It’s not about being right more often. It’s about only playing when odds are clearly in your favor. That’s how you turn a bot from a toy into a machine.

I interviewed the dev of the best Polymarket bot His bot trades BTC Up/Down markets automatically 24/7 Result? +$650k each month passively Here're the tips he gave me on how to create the same bot: First thing: stop trying to predict Better build a system that reacts. His bot doesn’t guess tops or bottoms, but waits for confluence. Core stack: • EMA (defines trend: filters chop) • VWAP (shows fair value: avoid bad entries) • OBV (confirms money flow: no volume = no trade) • RSI (detects extremes: don’t buy highs or sell lows) • MACD (confirms momentum) Then he adds a volatility filter. Most bots die because they trade in dead or chaotic markets. His doesn’t. Risk model is everything: • fixed % per trade • no overtrading • strict cooldown after losses And the real edge: the bot trades only when 3-4 signals align at once No signal = no trade. His wallet address: It’s not about being right more often. It’s about only playing when odds are clearly in your favor. That’s how you turn a bot from a toy into a machine.

Oracle Boar

40,451 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

THIS WALLET STACKED $230K ON BTC UP/DOWN BETS. THE BLUEPRINT TO AUTOMATE THE SAME EDGE WITH CLAUDE The wallet is $230K all-time, every position a Bitcoin or Ethereum Up or Down market It never guesses direction. It enters only when the math and the market disagree THE STRATEGY: BTC moves are not fully random. When the market enters a committed directional state, continuation is measurable. That is Markov persistence Entry signal: > Δ = p̂ − q ≥ ε Model probability minus market price. Enter only on a 5% gap or more Persistence filter: > p(j*,j*) ≥ 0.87 Only trade states with 0.87 persistence or higher. Below that, skip. This is what holds the win rate above 65% with zero directional guessing Payout: > r = (1 − q) / q At q = 0.647 that is +54.5% a win. At q = 0.441, +126.7%. Lower entry price, bigger asymmetry Sizing: > f* = p − (1−p)/b Kelly. At p = 0.87, b = 0.647, f* ≈ 0.71. Size to the edge, never to gut HOW TO BUILD IT WITH CLAUDE: What separates this from a static bot: Claude reads its own trade journal every night and rewrites its own thresholds 1. Take an open-source Polymarket bot repo as your base logic. Feed it to Claude and have it migrate to CLOB v2: py_clob_client_v2, Safe wallet support, fee-aware evaluation 2. Hard-code the filters. Enter only when Δ ≥ 0.05 and p(j*,j*) ≥ 0.87. Apply Kelly on every fill. 3. Run DRY_RUN first. Log every signal, entry price, Markov state, and simulated P/L. No real money until the numbers hold for days 4. The nightly loop. Claude reads the journal, finds which persistence states actually won, adjusts MIN_PROB and MIN_EDGE, ships tomorrow's rules. The agent is sharper after 50 to 100 trades THE SETUP: Claude Opus as the brain. An open-source repo as the starting logic. A Polygon wallet with $50 to $100. Telegram for the morning report Start at $1 to $2 per trade while it learns. Scale only when the dry runs and the live fills line up 17,000 trades compound a thin edge into six figures. The model finds the edge. The nightly loop keeps it sharp Bookmark before you point a bot at your first window

THIS WALLET STACKED $230K ON BTC UP/DOWN BETS. THE BLUEPRINT TO AUTOMATE THE SAME EDGE WITH CLAUDE The wallet is $230K all-time, every position a Bitcoin or Ethereum Up or Down market It never guesses direction. It enters only when the math and the market disagree THE STRATEGY: BTC moves are not fully random. When the market enters a committed directional state, continuation is measurable. That is Markov persistence Entry signal: > Δ = p̂ − q ≥ ε Model probability minus market price. Enter only on a 5% gap or more Persistence filter: > p(j,j) ≥ 0.87 Only trade states with 0.87 persistence or higher. Below that, skip. This is what holds the win rate above 65% with zero directional guessing Payout: > r = (1 − q) / q At q = 0.647 that is +54.5% a win. At q = 0.441, +126.7%. Lower entry price, bigger asymmetry Sizing: > f* = p − (1−p)/b Kelly. At p = 0.87, b = 0.647, f* ≈ 0.71. Size to the edge, never to gut HOW TO BUILD IT WITH CLAUDE: What separates this from a static bot: Claude reads its own trade journal every night and rewrites its own thresholds 1. Take an open-source Polymarket bot repo as your base logic. Feed it to Claude and have it migrate to CLOB v2: py_clob_client_v2, Safe wallet support, fee-aware evaluation 2. Hard-code the filters. Enter only when Δ ≥ 0.05 and p(j,j) ≥ 0.87. Apply Kelly on every fill. 3. Run DRY_RUN first. Log every signal, entry price, Markov state, and simulated P/L. No real money until the numbers hold for days 4. The nightly loop. Claude reads the journal, finds which persistence states actually won, adjusts MIN_PROB and MIN_EDGE, ships tomorrow's rules. The agent is sharper after 50 to 100 trades THE SETUP: Claude Opus as the brain. An open-source repo as the starting logic. A Polygon wallet with $50 to $100. Telegram for the morning report Start at $1 to $2 per trade while it learns. Scale only when the dry runs and the live fills line up 17,000 trades compound a thin edge into six figures. The model finds the edge. The nightly loop keeps it sharp Bookmark before you point a bot at your first window

Yarchi

22,966 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten