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This guy used Grok Bot to build a Quant Hedge Limit system and it made $731 a day on Polymarket The result is already +$130,885 PnL in 179 days with about $525 per market traded, repeating the same setup across roughly 7 markets every hour in BTC "Up or... Down" Several AI agents work together as one algorithm: 1. The bot tracks both sides of the same market instead of predicting one direction Every BTC market has two outcomes: Up and Down One of them always settles at 100¢, so the bot looks for moments when both sides together leave an edge Gross Edge = 100¢ - (Up Entry + Down Entry) For example: Up = 47¢ Down = 50¢ Gross Edge = 3¢ Instead of predicting BTC, the bot is trying to capture the difference between the two entries and their final 100¢ settlement value 2. Bayes continuously updates the probability behind each outcome As new BTC and order book data arrive: P(A|B) = P(B|A) × P(A) / P(B) Where: P(A) = previous probability B = new market information P(A|B) = updated probability The bot can compare that updated probability with the current Up and Down quotes The larger the mismatch, the stronger the potential edge This trader’s Polymarket account: Most profitable trades: $274 → $967 (+$693) $42 → $668 (+$626) $30 → $640 (+$609) The bot finds a two-sided edge first, then uses Kelly to determine the optimal sizeshow more

Daniro

6,975 subscribers

31,657 views • 3 days ago •via X (Twitter)

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11 Comments

floatix2 days ago

how often do u even get up and down under 100c?

Alex3 days ago

Grok bot hasn’t even been out that long @grok

HoOr 互关版3 days ago

$731一天乘以7个市场每小时跑，这数学一算年化挺唬人的，但179天赚13万，平均每天也就730刀，跟标题对得上，说明没怎么吹牛。不过BTC up or down这种二元期权式玩法，胜率稍微偏一点就能被手续费和滑点吃光，525刀一个市场说实

BobanGarage2 days ago

AI 🤖

Shayan2 days ago

is this legit?

Rugikk3 days ago

wow bro, nice setup

Alex Lee2 days ago

$731 a day without predicting BTC? now that's the part I wanna understand 👀

Automated Discipline3 days ago

Amazing!

qwinsi3 days ago

A 3c edge looks great on paper. Getting both sides filled at those prices is where the real challenge starts

Colombiajero3 days ago

Scam

Bazutles2 days ago

This is some serious white boy energy here!

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22,562 views • 15 days ago

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25,607 views • 3 months ago

There’s a guy running a high-frequency trading algorithm on Polymarket, averaging just $53 per trade. In the end, he made $129,923. His bot specializes in short-term BTC and ETH up/down markets, using a mixed strategy of two-sided market making plus complete-pair accumulation, combined with inventory rebalancing. The specific logic works like this: First, it accumulates positions on both the “up” and “down” sides at different times. On both sides it hangs buy orders, taking advantage of market volatility to get filled at different prices. For example, on the “up” side it buys at 47 cents, and a while later on the “down” side it buys at 52 cents, adding up to 99 cents combined, which locks in a guaranteed 1 cent gross profit. Second, it keeps a bit of directional exposure. After putting together complete pairs, if its fair-probability model sees an edge, it holds onto part of the directional position. The model is based on external data on the underlying assets, order book depth, and things like momentum, acceleration, and volatility. His main Polymarket page: The core edge of his high-frequency algorithm is constantly repeating the same cycle, steadily eating up the price difference to keep compounding his capital into a bigger and bigger pile.

There’s a guy running a high-frequency trading algorithm on Polymarket, averaging just $53 per trade. In the end, he made $129,923. His bot specializes in short-term BTC and ETH up/down markets, using a mixed strategy of two-sided market making plus complete-pair accumulation, combined with inventory rebalancing. The specific logic works like this: First, it accumulates positions on both the “up” and “down” sides at different times. On both sides it hangs buy orders, taking advantage of market volatility to get filled at different prices. For example, on the “up” side it buys at 47 cents, and a while later on the “down” side it buys at 52 cents, adding up to 99 cents combined, which locks in a guaranteed 1 cent gross profit. Second, it keeps a bit of directional exposure. After putting together complete pairs, if its fair-probability model sees an edge, it holds onto part of the directional position. The model is based on external data on the underlying assets, order book depth, and things like momentum, acceleration, and volatility. His main Polymarket page: The core edge of his high-frequency algorithm is constantly repeating the same cycle, steadily eating up the price difference to keep compounding his capital into a bigger and bigger pile.

draven

60,555 views • 1 month ago

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $10 Result: +$262,402 His bot trades 15-minute BTC/ETH Up/Down markets using a hybrid of two-sided market making, volatility harvesting, and asynchronous complete-set accumulation: 1. It builds positions where Up + Down Buys Up at 42¢, then later buys Down at 53¢ > Complete set = 95¢ -> 5¢ gross edge 2. It leaves a directional residual on top of the paired inventory For example: > Buys 100 Up + 150 Down > 100 Up + 100 Down form complete sets, while the remaining 50 Down maintain directional exposure Around 86% of all purchased shares are part of the paired position, while the remaining inventory acts as the directional layer of the strategy His Polymarket nickname: aswfadq1555 You can build your own trading bot here: (Trial period available after registration) This guy’s stats: > Trades / active hour: 324 > Average trade: $10.51 > Win Rate: 50% The main edge of his HFT algorithm comes from using volatility within 15-minute markets to asynchronously accumulate Up and Down for less than $1. The unmatched remainder is kept as directional exposure Using this strategy and his algorithm, this guy steadily grows his capital

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $10 Result: +$262,402 His bot trades 15-minute BTC/ETH Up/Down markets using a hybrid of two-sided market making, volatility harvesting, and asynchronous complete-set accumulation: 1. It builds positions where Up + Down Buys Up at 42¢, then later buys Down at 53¢ > Complete set = 95¢ -> 5¢ gross edge 2. It leaves a directional residual on top of the paired inventory For example: > Buys 100 Up + 150 Down > 100 Up + 100 Down form complete sets, while the remaining 50 Down maintain directional exposure Around 86% of all purchased shares are part of the paired position, while the remaining inventory acts as the directional layer of the strategy His Polymarket nickname: aswfadq1555 You can build your own trading bot here: (Trial period available after registration) This guy’s stats: > Trades / active hour: 324 > Average trade: $10.51 > Win Rate: 50% The main edge of his HFT algorithm comes from using volatility within 15-minute markets to asynchronously accumulate Up and Down for less than $1. The unmatched remainder is kept as directional exposure Using this strategy and his algorithm, this guy steadily grows his capital

VALIX

134,819 views • 1 month ago

every polymarket bot is based on this formula the kelly criterion f = (p - m) / (1 - m) p = your true probability m = current market price simple rule, but it works on distance you think edge is about picking winners but the real game is position sizing here's how it works: bot identifies edge: calculates true probability vs market price example flow: bot sees market at 50c (m), calculates real probability at 60% (p) math is simple: edge / remaining upside (0.60 - 0.50) / (1.00 - 0.50) 0.10 / 0.50 = 0.20 kelly says allocate 20% of current capital bot uses quarter kelly for safety = 5% allocation position opens automatically at optimal size as bankroll grows, position sizes scale up proportionally as bankroll shrinks, positions scale down to preserve capital bots are actually destroying manual traders humans can't make calculations instantly bots can the formula ensures maximum growth without risking ruin position sizing adjusts dynamically to current capital this is the foundation of every serious automated strategy

every polymarket bot is based on this formula the kelly criterion f = (p - m) / (1 - m) p = your true probability m = current market price simple rule, but it works on distance you think edge is about picking winners but the real game is position sizing here's how it works: bot identifies edge: calculates true probability vs market price example flow: bot sees market at 50c (m), calculates real probability at 60% (p) math is simple: edge / remaining upside (0.60 - 0.50) / (1.00 - 0.50) 0.10 / 0.50 = 0.20 kelly says allocate 20% of current capital bot uses quarter kelly for safety = 5% allocation position opens automatically at optimal size as bankroll grows, position sizes scale up proportionally as bankroll shrinks, positions scale down to preserve capital bots are actually destroying manual traders humans can't make calculations instantly bots can the formula ensures maximum growth without risking ruin position sizing adjusts dynamically to current capital this is the foundation of every serious automated strategy

ramper

68,944 views • 7 months ago

A bot made $387K betting both sides of BTC. Direction does not matter when you own both outcomes. I almost scrolled past Account88888. Another BTC bot, right? Seen a dozen this month. Then I looked closer. And realized I had never seen this strategy before. He is not predicting anything. Not reading momentum. Not timing entries based on spot price lag. He just buys UP and DOWN together. Same market. Same window. Sounds stupid until you see the math. Polymarket has 15-minute BTC markets. Will price go UP or DOWN in the next 15 minutes. Simple bet. When a lot of people start guessing, prices get weird. UP might cost 48¢. DOWN costs 46¢. Together that is 94 cents. But one of them will always pay $1. Always. Because BTC either goes up or down. So he buys both for 94¢. Waits 15 minutes. Gets $1 back. Keeps the 6¢ difference. The edge is the slop. Other bots fight for direction. This one farms the chaos. When BTC goes sideways, both outcomes drift toward 50/50. Spreads widen. He loads up. Sits for a few minutes. Market closes. Collects. I went through his history expecting at least some red. 8,610 trades. 97% green. Account: Everyone else on Polymarket is trying to be right. This bot just made being wrong impossible.

A bot made $387K betting both sides of BTC. Direction does not matter when you own both outcomes. I almost scrolled past Account88888. Another BTC bot, right? Seen a dozen this month. Then I looked closer. And realized I had never seen this strategy before. He is not predicting anything. Not reading momentum. Not timing entries based on spot price lag. He just buys UP and DOWN together. Same market. Same window. Sounds stupid until you see the math. Polymarket has 15-minute BTC markets. Will price go UP or DOWN in the next 15 minutes. Simple bet. When a lot of people start guessing, prices get weird. UP might cost 48¢. DOWN costs 46¢. Together that is 94 cents. But one of them will always pay $1. Always. Because BTC either goes up or down. So he buys both for 94¢. Waits 15 minutes. Gets $1 back. Keeps the 6¢ difference. The edge is the slop. Other bots fight for direction. This one farms the chaos. When BTC goes sideways, both outcomes drift toward 50/50. Spreads widen. He loads up. Sits for a few minutes. Market closes. Collects. I went through his history expecting at least some red. 8,610 trades. 97% green. Account: Everyone else on Polymarket is trying to be right. This bot just made being wrong impossible.

Blaze

281,153 views • 9 months ago

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $23 Result: +$216,633 His bot trades crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid of directional trading, dynamic hedging, and partial complete-set accumulation: 1. It looks for directional edge using its own fair probability It constantly compares its estimated probability of Up and Down with current Polymarket prices and enters positions when it sees mispricing 2. When the signal changes, it buys the opposite outcome Instead of closing the original position, it starts accumulating the other side. Part of the inventory gradually turns into paired Up + Down positions The median cost of a pair is around $0.945 3. It keeps a directional residual The median inventory imbalance is around 40% of total shares The matched part of the position captures structural edge, while the remaining inventory continues working in the direction of the model’s current signal His Polymarket nickname: pspspsps5 Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this app: The main edge of this guy’s algorithm comes from combining two mechanics: First, it accumulates the outcome that its model considers undervalued. Then, when the market changes, it uses the opposite side as a dynamic hedge and builds complete sets

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $23 Result: +$216,633 His bot trades crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid of directional trading, dynamic hedging, and partial complete-set accumulation: 1. It looks for directional edge using its own fair probability It constantly compares its estimated probability of Up and Down with current Polymarket prices and enters positions when it sees mispricing 2. When the signal changes, it buys the opposite outcome Instead of closing the original position, it starts accumulating the other side. Part of the inventory gradually turns into paired Up + Down positions The median cost of a pair is around $0.945 3. It keeps a directional residual The median inventory imbalance is around 40% of total shares The matched part of the position captures structural edge, while the remaining inventory continues working in the direction of the model’s current signal His Polymarket nickname: pspspsps5 Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this app: The main edge of this guy’s algorithm comes from combining two mechanics: First, it accumulates the outcome that its model considers undervalued. Then, when the market changes, it uses the opposite side as a dynamic hedge and builds complete sets

VALIX

36,397 views • 1 month ago

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $193,000 on Polymarket His bot trades the microstructure of short BTC Up / Down markets through limit orders and combines a hybrid of arbitrage, market making, and hedging His strategy is simple: > Enters a position when it sees mispricing > Then buys the opposite outcome, turning part of the trade into a paired arb > The base position is hedged with the pair, while the rest remains as a directional trade This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures an average edge of 2-3% and repeats it hundreds of times Consistent micro edge + clean execution = lifechange

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $193,000 on Polymarket His bot trades the microstructure of short BTC Up / Down markets through limit orders and combines a hybrid of arbitrage, market making, and hedging His strategy is simple: > Enters a position when it sees mispricing > Then buys the opposite outcome, turning part of the trade into a paired arb > The base position is hedged with the pair, while the rest remains as a directional trade This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures an average edge of 2-3% and repeats it hundreds of times Consistent micro edge + clean execution = lifechange

VALIX

98,892 views • 4 months ago

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $34.90 Result: +$129,827 Nearly 99% of its volume comes from 5 minute BTC Up/Down markets, where it combines asynchronous pairing, MERGE, and a directional residual: 1. Accumulates both sides of the same market It bought both Up and Down in 79.6% of markets. The median gap between its first purchases of of the two outcomes is 8 seconds It uses price movements within each market to buy both sides at different times and prices 2. Frees up capital through MERGE It merges an equal number of shares from each side of the market For example: 100 Up + 80 Down 80 Up + 80 Down -> MERGE -> $80 If those matched pairs cost less than $1 each, the difference becomes a structural edge regardless of how the market resolves MERGE immediately frees up capital so it can be used again 3. Holds unpaired inventory until resolution In the example above, 20 Up shares remain after the MERGE This portion is unhedged and acts as a directional residual Its final pnl therefore depends on the edge from matched pairs, how efficiently it reuses capital, and the performance of its directional residual Its Polymarket account: flippingsharks Stats: > Trades per active hour: 73.18 > Average trade size: $34.90 > Win rate: 50.33% The bot’s main edge comes from a BUY -> pairing -> MERGE cycle: merging matched inventory frees up capital and locks in the edge on pairs bought for less than $1, while the unpaired portion stays directional until resolution

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $34.90 Result: +$129,827 Nearly 99% of its volume comes from 5 minute BTC Up/Down markets, where it combines asynchronous pairing, MERGE, and a directional residual: 1. Accumulates both sides of the same market It bought both Up and Down in 79.6% of markets. The median gap between its first purchases of of the two outcomes is 8 seconds It uses price movements within each market to buy both sides at different times and prices 2. Frees up capital through MERGE It merges an equal number of shares from each side of the market For example: 100 Up + 80 Down 80 Up + 80 Down -> MERGE -> $80 If those matched pairs cost less than $1 each, the difference becomes a structural edge regardless of how the market resolves MERGE immediately frees up capital so it can be used again 3. Holds unpaired inventory until resolution In the example above, 20 Up shares remain after the MERGE This portion is unhedged and acts as a directional residual Its final pnl therefore depends on the edge from matched pairs, how efficiently it reuses capital, and the performance of its directional residual Its Polymarket account: flippingsharks Stats: > Trades per active hour: 73.18 > Average trade size: $34.90 > Win rate: 50.33% The bot’s main edge comes from a BUY -> pairing -> MERGE cycle: merging matched inventory frees up capital and locks in the edge on pairs bought for less than $1, while the unpaired portion stays directional until resolution

VALIX

22,698 views • 11 days ago