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This guy used Grok Bot to build a Quant Probability Repricing system and it made $2,934 a day on Polymarket The result is already +$217,100 PnL in 74 days with about $635 per average trade, repeating the same setup 11 times every hour across BTC "Up or Down" markets... Six AI agents work together as one algorithm: 1. They calculate fair probability after every BTC move For example: BTC moves Down >Fair Down = 64% >Market Down = 54¢ >Edge = 10¢ If Polymarket is still pricing Down at 54¢ while the model estimates 64%, the system starts accumulating that side 2. Bayesian updating recalculates the probability after every new signal P(A|B) = P(B|A) × P(A) / P(B) Where: P(A) = probability before new information P(B|A) = how likely the new signal is if the prediction is correct P(A|B) = updated probability after that signal Every new signal changes the estimate instead of forcing the bot to make a completely new trade This trader’s Polymarket account: 20,300 predictions with a 50% win rate Most profitable trades: $2,305 → $4,139 (+$1,834) $886 → $2,697 (+$1,811) $1,132 → $2,888 (+$1,756) The whole strategy is built around repeatedly catching the gap between BTC movement and Polymarket repricingshow more

Daniro

5,967 subscribers

28,636 views • 13 days ago •via X (Twitter)

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17 Comments

Norvela12 days ago

Ask Claude to verify:

Hussain Hashim | Building SundayBack12 days ago

@Dan1ro0 impressive! I'd keep an eye on transaction fees. They can eat into profits if not optimized, especially at that volume.

sof r.12 days ago

Interesting perspective

Quiet Operator12 days ago

bro turned bayes theorem into a polymarket money printer

BPP | Crypto Key Media |13 days ago

Grok building quant systems now, this timeline moves too fast

TK12 days ago

🤯

Micheal Mc Donnell12 days ago

It’s 51 days since Grok bot was launched (Aug 11, 2026) . His account is live since July 18 2026. The bot was built long before and trading before Grok Bot from what I see.

notgwapo12 days ago

sounds wild, man. those numbers are something else. props to the hustle. 💰

Piper12 days ago

87% win rate on 5min BTC markets is just variance dressed up. Show me 500 trades.

Sofie a,12 days ago

Couldn't agree more

VALIX13 days ago

This AI agent system is really impressive

Daniro13 days ago

He's been running a trading bot system for over two months now, with a profit of almost 3k per day, which is very impressive

magsimich12 days ago

11 runs every hour is the key detail

Alex X12 days ago

ty for the 64% vs 54¢ example, finally clicked how the edge actually gets priced 50% win rate over 20k trades and still up big, thats the part ppl miss. appreciate u saving the bayesian breakdown for later, gonna try that repricing logic on a small bankroll first, thx

Віталік Зубарєв12 days ago

11 trades per hour with that kind of edge is crazy. Would be interesting to see the drawdown and losing streaks too

Hrundel75 🐷12 days ago

LOOKS CUTE

inachu12 days ago

They will then charge you more on the amount of bots you use taking 75% of the profits

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370,823 views • 1 month ago

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slash1s

16,425 views • 2 months ago

This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $9 Result: +$108,248 I analyzed its trades and found that its core strategy is based on dynamically accumulating both outcomes at different points throughout 5 minute BTC Up/Down markets It uses price swings within each market to buy each outcome when it becomes cheaper Here’s what that looks like in practice: > BTC declines sharply > Up falls to 42c, and the bot starts accumulating it > Then BTC rebounds > Down becomes cheaper, and the algorithm buys it at 55c Up + Down = 97c -> 3c edge These paired positions have an average edge of 2.7% But it does not always keep Up and Down perfectly balanced at a 1:1 ratio On top of its paired inventory, the algorithm often keeps a directional residual, which adds extra upside if that outcome wins Its Polymarket account: Jarvisen You can build your own trading bot here: (A trial is available after signing up) Stats: > Trades per active hour: 680 > Average trade size: $9.11 > Win rate: 69% The main edge of this HFT algorithm comes from volatility harvesting: it alternates between accumulating Up and Down, building paired inventory with a combined cost below $1 while keeping a small directional skew toward the cheaper side

This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $9 Result: +$108,248 I analyzed its trades and found that its core strategy is based on dynamically accumulating both outcomes at different points throughout 5 minute BTC Up/Down markets It uses price swings within each market to buy each outcome when it becomes cheaper Here’s what that looks like in practice: > BTC declines sharply > Up falls to 42c, and the bot starts accumulating it > Then BTC rebounds > Down becomes cheaper, and the algorithm buys it at 55c Up + Down = 97c -> 3c edge These paired positions have an average edge of 2.7% But it does not always keep Up and Down perfectly balanced at a 1:1 ratio On top of its paired inventory, the algorithm often keeps a directional residual, which adds extra upside if that outcome wins Its Polymarket account: Jarvisen You can build your own trading bot here: (A trial is available after signing up) Stats: > Trades per active hour: 680 > Average trade size: $9.11 > Win rate: 69% The main edge of this HFT algorithm comes from volatility harvesting: it alternates between accumulating Up and Down, building paired inventory with a combined cost below $1 while keeping a small directional skew toward the cheaper side

VALIX

22,562 views • 15 days ago

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket and made +$304,915 His bot trades 5-minute BTC Up/Down markets using a hybrid of directional trading, latency edge, and dynamic hedging: 1. It looks for mispricing using its own fair-value model The model constantly tracks BTC relative to the opening price, momentum, acceleration, and volatility, while comparing PM prices with spot prices from external sources If the price on Polymarket lags behind its fair-value estimate, it starts buying the corresponding outcome 2. When the signal changes, it starts accumulating the opposite side If the underlying asset changes direction, it doesn’t sell the existing position. Instead, it starts buying the opposite outcome The opposite outcome reduces net exposure and works as a dynamic hedge, while the majority of the remaining position stays directional His nickname: 0xAAAAA The signal is generated before the trade even happens: first, the model reads BTC movements on external markets, then uses that data to estimate the probability of Up and Down But if you want to trade the actual BTC/ETH price movement rather than a binary outcome, you can take a look at KCEX: The exchange currently offers zero fees on some spot/perp pairs, as well as 0% fees on the first 100 withdrawals per month across all assets With $1M in trading volume, even a 0.1% fee turns into $1,000 in costs. That’s why zero fees can provide a significant advantage to the edge of any trading strategy

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket and made +$304,915 His bot trades 5-minute BTC Up/Down markets using a hybrid of directional trading, latency edge, and dynamic hedging: 1. It looks for mispricing using its own fair-value model The model constantly tracks BTC relative to the opening price, momentum, acceleration, and volatility, while comparing PM prices with spot prices from external sources If the price on Polymarket lags behind its fair-value estimate, it starts buying the corresponding outcome 2. When the signal changes, it starts accumulating the opposite side If the underlying asset changes direction, it doesn’t sell the existing position. Instead, it starts buying the opposite outcome The opposite outcome reduces net exposure and works as a dynamic hedge, while the majority of the remaining position stays directional His nickname: 0xAAAAA The signal is generated before the trade even happens: first, the model reads BTC movements on external markets, then uses that data to estimate the probability of Up and Down But if you want to trade the actual BTC/ETH price movement rather than a binary outcome, you can take a look at KCEX: The exchange currently offers zero fees on some spot/perp pairs, as well as 0% fees on the first 100 withdrawals per month across all assets With $1M in trading volume, even a 0.1% fee turns into $1,000 in costs. That’s why zero fees can provide a significant advantage to the edge of any trading strategy

VALIX

39,031 views • 1 month ago

This trader built a trading bot on Polymarket and made +$149,305 His bot trades 5-minute crypto Up/Down markets using its own probability model and dynamic exposure management: 1. It looks for undervalued outcomes based on its model It pulls underlying asset data from external sources, compares it with the current Polymarket price, and enters a position when it sees mispricing The model factors in distance from the reference price, momentum, volatility, time to resolution, and order flow 2. When the signal weakens, it reduces the position or adds the opposite outcome If the initial edge disappears, it can partially reduce the position If the signal fully reverses, it starts buying the opposite outcome as a dynamic hedge His Polymarket nickname: trinity42 Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this app: The main edge of this algorithm comes from the accuracy of its probability model and effective position management through hedging

This trader built a trading bot on Polymarket and made +$149,305 His bot trades 5-minute crypto Up/Down markets using its own probability model and dynamic exposure management: 1. It looks for undervalued outcomes based on its model It pulls underlying asset data from external sources, compares it with the current Polymarket price, and enters a position when it sees mispricing The model factors in distance from the reference price, momentum, volatility, time to resolution, and order flow 2. When the signal weakens, it reduces the position or adds the opposite outcome If the initial edge disappears, it can partially reduce the position If the signal fully reverses, it starts buying the opposite outcome as a dynamic hedge His Polymarket nickname: trinity42 Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this app: The main edge of this algorithm comes from the accuracy of its probability model and effective position management through hedging

VALIX

26,313 views • 1 month ago

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $537,000 on Polymarket, buying markets for $14.45 His bot combines a hybrid of microstructure scalping, arbitrage, and hedging. It trades short Up/Down markets with limit orders and captures a consistent edge His strategy is simple: > Buys undervalued outcomes relative to his probability model > Builds arbitrage positions when it sees mispricing > Uses the opposite side as a hedge if the price moves against him His Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he gets a 61% win rate and continuously grows his capital

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $537,000 on Polymarket, buying markets for $14.45 His bot combines a hybrid of microstructure scalping, arbitrage, and hedging. It trades short Up/Down markets with limit orders and captures a consistent edge His strategy is simple: > Buys undervalued outcomes relative to his probability model > Builds arbitrage positions when it sees mispricing > Uses the opposite side as a hedge if the price moves against him His Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he gets a 61% win rate and continuously grows his capital

VALIX

30,078 views • 4 months ago

The best Polymarket Quant bot for copy trading with a 99.3% win rate The bot doesn't take risks it uses math and statistics to consistently achieve a 99% win probability. Using this approach, it has earned +$805,000 across 29,184 predictions with 99.3% accuracy Here's a breakdown of its algorithm: 1. Price Mispricing Detection δ = actual win probability − implied probability Traders constantly overpay for cheap contracts (0.1–50¢), but the main edge is concentrated in contracts (80–99¢) that's exactly where the bot trades 2. Expected Value (EV) Calculation EV = (P_win × Payout) − (P_loss × Cost) Shows whether a bet is worth placing regardless of the outcome of any single trade 3. Kelly Criterion f* = (p × b − q) / b The most powerful position sizing formula ever discovered for trading and prediction markets Tells the algorithm what percentage of your portfolio to put into each bet to win in the long run His profile: Those who copy traded him have already made $35,000 But those who followed him and used Poly_Parlay made over $100,000 How? By simply mirroring his trades with a multiplier Instead of opening single trades, they added them all to a basket, so the odds multiplied Bot access:

sopersone

15,829 views • 5 months ago

He built a trading bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$77,123 in 1 month His bot trades the microstructure of short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid high-frequency strategy with 3 core elements: 1. After a market opens, it chooses a side based on its own probability model and builds the position with limit orders 2. When the underlying asset’s movement changes, it buys the opposite outcome as a hedge or as a reversal 3. Holds the position until the market ends, capturing a consistent edge from the final directional skew His Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures a consistent edge and keeps growing his capital

He built a trading bot on Polymarket with Claude Result: +$77,123 in 1 month His bot trades the microstructure of short-term crypto Up/Down markets using a hybrid high-frequency strategy with 3 core elements: 1. After a market opens, it chooses a side based on its own probability model and builds the position with limit orders 2. When the underlying asset’s movement changes, it buys the opposite outcome as a hedge or as a reversal 3. Holds the position until the market ends, capturing a consistent edge from the final directional skew His Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures a consistent edge and keeps growing his capital

VALIX

11,216 views • 2 months ago