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This is where probability matters more than opinion. Right now, the data is very clear on the #SP500. There is a 70% probability we see 682 by Thursday. There is an 85% probability we see 682 by Friday. That doesn’t mean it happens in a straight line. It means...

59,318 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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The $SPY Moon Boys are celebrating. The $TSLA Moon Boys are celebrating. The $NVDA Moon Boys are celebrating. The $AMD Moon Boys are celebrating. The #Bitcoin Moon Boys are celebrating. And their celebration is about to come to an end. Because while they’re cheering small green candles here near the highs, the signals underneath the surface are quietly doing the opposite. My hourly signal line has already rolled over. The 4 hour is rolling over. And the daily is now starting to turn. This is the exact confirmation I want. Which is why I added size yesterday. I did in fact tell everyone in the community to wait for the daily signal line confirmation to be safe.. These are the same signals that caught the last major legs down before the herd even realized what was happening. The same structure. The same behavior. The same warnings that everyone ignored until it was too late. Yet here we are again. They’re celebrating a small drift higher. They’re mistaking complacency for strength. They’re convincing themselves “this time is different.” It never is. In this video, I break down the signs across $SPY, $TSLA, $NVDA, $AMD and #Bitcoin and explain why the timeframes are starting to align for the next major move. We need a few more confirmed signals and this is golden for that next leg. The higher timeframe signals hasn’t improved. The trend hasn’t flipped. And the signal lines are all telling the same story. The nuke is getting close. Did we nail this exact top? Now you can all see that I am not perfect by no means.. But when it is all said and done, this tiny squeeze to a new high potentially... This 1% move? Is nothing to the 12% move coming on the #SP500, and 20% move coming on $TSLA. I need to see my signals flip bullish before I consider the alternative move to the upside. And as for $NVDA? I need to see the push to $193 before I get back in from when we exited down in the $170's and $180's. Most traders chase comfort. We position for what comes after it. #SP500 $SPY $TSLA $NVDA $AMD #Bitcoin #Trading

TraderJonesy

31,217 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

Everyone is panicking over Iran. Futures red. Feeds full of “this is the crash.” People convinced the market is about to unravel. I just dropped a full #SP500 breakdown explaining why this likely gets bought. If there is one video you watch this week, make it this one. I’ll say it again clearly. There is a 70% chance the #SP500 hits 690–693 by Wednesday. There is an 85% chance the #SP500 hits 690–693 by Thursday. Those probabilities didn’t disappear because of a headline. I’m in calls for next Friday. My plan was always to add size near 678–675. It looks like I may get that opportunity. And let me stress something most people ignore. Contract selection matters more than direction. You can be completely right about the move and still lose money if your delta is wrong, your gamma is weak or your expiration is too short. I started this short with about $6,000. Less than 0.5% of my total account. Go look at my pinned post. I constantly stress small size and building into positions. No single trade should ever exceed 6% of your total fund. At the open, my goal is simple. Bring strikes down. Improve delta and gamma. That way a partial move back up repairs the position quickly and continuation expands it. This is where opportunity meets preparation. Most will FOMO at the open. Most will react to emotion. Very few will execute a plan. I originally dropped this video for the Discord but I’m sharing it here because this week matters. I am not worried. I do not believe this is the true move. And that’s coming from someone who has been positioned for the larger unwind. If there is one thing I recommend you do, it is watch this video. Important things are about to happen. Those who prepare will be the ones who capitalize. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!! — TJ #SP500 #SPY #QQQ #TSLA #PLTR #NVDA #AAPL #Bitcoin #Crypto #stockmarket

TraderJonesy

48,286 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

Something big is forming in this market and most traders are completely blind to it. Everyone sees the bounce. Almost nobody understands why it’s happening. This push isn’t accumulation. It’s distribution. And when the big money steps back in after the holiday lull, they’re not coming back to buy this. They’re coming back to sell it. Here’s exactly what I laid out in the video. For the #SP500, we rode the entire move down. 686 to 675 and trimmed… 675 to 664 and trimmed… 664 to 651 and trimmed again. Now we’re sitting in the small core position we kept intentionally, waiting for strength to reload into. My plan hasn’t changed. I’m looking to size back in at 683 and we added some at 670 yesterday because the market doesn’t always hand you the perfect level. February already proved that. No bounce, no mercy, just four straight weeks of pain. You prepare for both paths. That’s discipline. For #Tesla, nothing in the structure has shifted. We shorted at $436, rode it to the $390s, added back at $424, took profit on those at $386 and held the core the whole time. Yesterday we added again at $418. Next level is $433. This isn’t a reversal. It’s a lower high forming inside a red SuperTrend. For #Nvidia, the plan played out perfectly. Short at $195 on the earnings pop, trimmed in the $180s, trimmed again in the $170s, now holding 5 contracts out of the original 25. Heavy de risking into weakness, dry powder ready for strength. My levels haven’t changed. $180 and $193 are where I’ll load size again. #Bitcoin is showing the same exact behavior. Im expecting a push into the low $100Ks to form the lower high, then a drop toward $70K heading into January. Same trend. Same structure. Same macro pressure. And here’s the part hardly anyone is talking about. This entire bounce is happening on light holiday volume. This isn’t institutions building positions. This is drift. When real liquidity returns next week, this gets sold. Not bought. My daily, weekly and monthly Signal Lines are all still rolling over. My SuperTrend is still red across $SPY, $TSLA, $NVDA and #Bitcoin. Liquidity is dropping. Credit is tightening. Breadth is thinning. Nothing in the bigger picture has improved. This isn’t bias. It’s the trend. This isn’t a feeling. It’s the data. And the truth is simple. You don’t get generational opportunities unless the market sets a generational trap first. This bounce is the trap. The lower high is the trap. And most of this feed is walking straight into it just like they always do. Conviction isn’t recklessness. I keep dry powder. I hold the core. I trim into weakness and add into strength. Over and over again. That’s why I’m still in the game while others panic over a 2% wiggle and miss the real move entirely. If the signals flip green, I’ll flip long without hesitation. If they stay red, I stay short without emotion. I don’t trade what I want. I trade what the system tells me. You’re going to look back at this moment and realize you either stood with the signals or you chased the lower high with the moon boys. Your choice.

TraderJonesy

138,348 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce