TraderJonesy
@TraderJonesy • 21,974 subscribers
Quant trader | 7+ yrs $SPY & $TSLA & $BTC | Signals over emotions | Live updates & Discord below.
Videos
The market just told you exactly what’s coming next… and most people are going to ignore it. This wasn’t just a red day. This was a break of structure. And when structure breaks at this level, it’s not noise… it’s a shift. My targets are clear. I am targeting the 630s in the coming weeks ahead and 600 by the end of April. That’s what the signals are saying. In the video, I break down exactly what I’m seeing, why this matters and where I plan to build more puts on any push to form a lower high. And yes. The calls didn’t work today. But if that’s all you’re focused on, you’re completely missing the bigger picture. Watch the video. Understand the context. Or learn it the hard way in the weeks and month ahead. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER — TJ #SP500 #SPY #QQQ #TSLA #PLTR #NVDA #AAPL #Bitcoin #Crypto #stockmarket
TraderJonesy324,234 views • 2 months ago
A lot of people are wondering whether or not the market is going to crash or correct. I am putting my thoughts out there for you all. My signals don't see it happening. At most, we pull into the 20 DMA and then continue the expansion higher. Hope you enjoy. $SPY $TSLA $NVDA
TraderJonesy61,667 views • 23 days ago
#Bitcoin is about to hand out the opportunity of a lifetime. Yeah I made a video on it but here’s the gist. I think Bitcoin’s topped. We’re talking a 35–40% drop coming down to around $65K but maybe a stop at $80K first to fake the moonboys out. After that we get a counter trend rally and then eventually we’re flushing down toward $20K by late 2026. The four year cycle is over.. And rate cuts are never bullish at the highs with rising inflation. In other words patience is about to pay off huge. If you can just wait then you’ll get a once in a lifetime shot. That’s the headline.. As usual I am continuing to watch the trend signals daily to make sure they do not flip back to bullish. I dive into all the details in the video but bottom line is the top is in and the real bottom won’t show up until everyone’s had their hopes crushed. #Crypto
TraderJonesy388,304 views • 7 months ago
#Bitcoin is about to hand out the opportunity of a lifetime. I said it back in November of 2025.. I am continuing to say it now. Back in November of 2025, I said Bitcoin was headed to $65,000 while price was up at $110,000. We got the move down that I expected... Where is this headed next? The monthly signal line is showing for a continued flush down to $50,000. At $50,000, I will be going long looking for a counter trend rally back up towards $90,000. My late 2026 target remains $30,000. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! — TJ #SP500 #Crypto #stockmarket
TraderJonesy84,430 views • 2 months ago
They said it couldn’t happen. Now it’s happening all at once. $TSLA is already selling off hard and down 10%. And the same crowd calling for $600–$800 on TSLA is about to learn how fast markets reprice. The #SP500 is next. The #Nasdaq is next. And $NVDA is next. I warned them all when I started shorting $TSLA. Everyone said $500, $600 and $800 was coming. They ignored every warning signs. They called me crazy, mocked me and said I was wrong. Well here we are, $TSLA is getting slaughtered. The haters were loud. The bulls were certain I was a fool. But look around now. The silence is beautiful. This is what discipline looks like. This is what patience looks like. And we’re just getting started. #SP500 #SPY #QQQ #TSLA #PLTR #NVDA #AAPL #Bitcoin #Crypto #StockMarket #MoveTo600
TraderJonesy116,988 views • 5 months ago
Something big is forming in this market and most traders are completely blind to it. Everyone sees the bounce. Almost nobody understands why it’s happening. This push isn’t accumulation. It’s distribution. And when the big money steps back in after the holiday lull, they’re not coming back to buy this. They’re coming back to sell it. Here’s exactly what I laid out in the video. For the #SP500, we rode the entire move down. 686 to 675 and trimmed… 675 to 664 and trimmed… 664 to 651 and trimmed again. Now we’re sitting in the small core position we kept intentionally, waiting for strength to reload into. My plan hasn’t changed. I’m looking to size back in at 683 and we added some at 670 yesterday because the market doesn’t always hand you the perfect level. February already proved that. No bounce, no mercy, just four straight weeks of pain. You prepare for both paths. That’s discipline. For #Tesla, nothing in the structure has shifted. We shorted at $436, rode it to the $390s, added back at $424, took profit on those at $386 and held the core the whole time. Yesterday we added again at $418. Next level is $433. This isn’t a reversal. It’s a lower high forming inside a red SuperTrend. For #Nvidia, the plan played out perfectly. Short at $195 on the earnings pop, trimmed in the $180s, trimmed again in the $170s, now holding 5 contracts out of the original 25. Heavy de risking into weakness, dry powder ready for strength. My levels haven’t changed. $180 and $193 are where I’ll load size again. #Bitcoin is showing the same exact behavior. Im expecting a push into the low $100Ks to form the lower high, then a drop toward $70K heading into January. Same trend. Same structure. Same macro pressure. And here’s the part hardly anyone is talking about. This entire bounce is happening on light holiday volume. This isn’t institutions building positions. This is drift. When real liquidity returns next week, this gets sold. Not bought. My daily, weekly and monthly Signal Lines are all still rolling over. My SuperTrend is still red across $SPY, $TSLA, $NVDA and #Bitcoin. Liquidity is dropping. Credit is tightening. Breadth is thinning. Nothing in the bigger picture has improved. This isn’t bias. It’s the trend. This isn’t a feeling. It’s the data. And the truth is simple. You don’t get generational opportunities unless the market sets a generational trap first. This bounce is the trap. The lower high is the trap. And most of this feed is walking straight into it just like they always do. Conviction isn’t recklessness. I keep dry powder. I hold the core. I trim into weakness and add into strength. Over and over again. That’s why I’m still in the game while others panic over a 2% wiggle and miss the real move entirely. If the signals flip green, I’ll flip long without hesitation. If they stay red, I stay short without emotion. I don’t trade what I want. I trade what the system tells me. You’re going to look back at this moment and realize you either stood with the signals or you chased the lower high with the moon boys. Your choice.
TraderJonesy138,323 views • 6 months ago
The perma bulls, the herd and the moon boys are about to learn the hard way. The #SP500 perma bulls are going to get wrecked. The $TSLA perma bulls are going to get wrecked. The $NVDA perma bulls are going to get wrecked. The $AMD perma bulls are going to get wrecked. The #Bitcoin perma bulls are about to get wrecked. Let them have their little moment because it won't last long. This market is in for a bloody couple of months and almost nobody is seeing it. We do. Every single one of them is ignoring the same thing. The higher timeframe signals that are quietly flashing red while they celebrate green candles. I was bullish not even a month ago. It’s the same story every cycle. They cheer the drift higher, mistake complacency for strength and tell themselves “this time is different.” It never is. In this video, I break down why each of these charts looks nearly identical beneath the surface. Weekly and monthly structure and signals are rolling over. Everyone’s chasing short-term comfort. We’re positioning for what comes after it. #SP500 #TSLA #NVDA #AMD #Bitcoin #Trading
TraderJonesy130,921 views • 6 months ago
#Bitcoin already handed out the first opportunity. At $110,000, back in November, I said a 35–40% crash was coming. I said $65K was the target. I said January was the window. Everyone laughed. Moon boys screamed $150-200K. We hit the target of $65,000. Now the next setup is forming. This isn’t the end of the unwind but it is getting close to a short term exhaustion point. I believe #Bitcoin is going to carve out a short term bottom somewhere in the $50K–$55K range. Not because of hope. Not because of narrative. Because of structure, signal alignment and cycle behavior. From there? A violent counter trend rally. The kind that convinces everyone the bull market is back. The kind that squeezes late shorts. The kind that pulls retail right back in. And then the larger cycle likely continues. But markets don’t go straight down. They reset. They squeeze. They rotate. In this video I break down exactly. Where I think the short term bottom forms. Why the counter trend rally could be aggressive. How I’ll know if the signals flip early. And what invalidates the thesis. I was right on time at $110K. See the quoted post below. The first leg played out to perfection. Now we prepare for the next phase. Opportunity isn’t just in the crash. It’s in knowing when to step back in. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! — TJ #SP500 #SPY #QQQ #TSLA #PLTR #NVDA #AAPL #Bitcoin #Crypto #stockmarket
TraderJonesy60,786 views • 3 months ago
Everyone keeps acting like this move came out of nowhere but we called every inch of it in real time. We said a counter trend rally was coming. We got it. We said the lower high would form. It did. I said I was coming after $NVDA at the open. We took the short the second the bell rang. And we scaled out into the lows exactly where the signals told us to. Same thing with the #SP500. Same thing with #Tesla. Every entry. Every scale out. Every warning. All posted live before the move ever happened. Nothing about this was luck. It was structure. It was trend. It was the signal line and the SuperTrend doing exactly what they’ve done all year. Guide us through the noise while everyone else chases candles. Now here’s where we stand right now. I’m officially expecting upside from here. Not strength. A reset. A counter trend release inside a larger downtrend that hasn’t changed at all. For $TSLA, I’m watching $424–$430. For the #SP500, I’m watching $672. For $NVDA, I’m watching $188–$193. Those are the levels where I’ll start loading size again. That’s where I’ll replace what we scaled out at the lows. The weekly structure hasn’t flipped. The monthly hasn’t flipped. The SuperTrend is still red across the board. The larger move is still in front of us. We caught the bounce. We caught the flush. We took profits on every leg. And now we wait for the next opportunity. The same way we always do. Signal by signal and level by level. Watch the video. I break down every chart, every signal and every target.
TraderJonesy99,006 views • 6 months ago
$TSLA is doing now what it did before every major unwind. The most dangerous part of a selloff is the part that still feels controlled. #Tesla didn’t randomly roll over. Since my sell signal triggered, $TSLA is already down -10% and the signals haven’t improved at all. Lower highs and lower lows now on the hourly. My weekly Signal Line remains bearish. My daily Signal Line remains bearish and the last time the daily SL looked this weak, we saw $TSLA unwind straight into the $380s late November. That wasn’t noise. That was structure breaking. We’ve seen this exact setup before. In 2022, $TSLA topped early, chopped around and then began a sustained decline that eventually took it down more than 60% from the highs. It didn’t happen overnight. There were bounces. There were squeezes. There were moments where people thought the worst was over. And every one of those moves got sold once the larger trend took control. That’s how real downside plays out. The same thing applied to $SPY. Early 2022 started with strength, sideways action and confidence. Then it rolled. By the time it felt obvious, $SPY was already deep into what became a -25% drawdown. The patience required back then is the same patience being tested now. That’s why short term upside doesn’t change the story. I need to see the 4 hour Signal Line flip green and increase before I even consider trading short term upside in $TSLA. If it happens, I’ll trade it. But until then, any bounce is counter trend and not confirmation. In the video, I walk through key $TSLA levels and I also walk through key $SPY levels because this isn’t just a $TSLA move. $SPY is showing the same behavior. Rallies into resistance that get sold, momentum fading, and downside pressure building. That’s exactly how 2022 started. And when $SPY rolls, the rest follow. $QQQ, $NVDA, $MU all showing the same signals, same patience required. I remain short each name. Just like with $TSLA, the ones who stayed patient are already seeing how much that discipline pays. The larger move is still intact. Video is live. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER — TJ #SP500 #SPY #QQQ #TSLA #PLTR #NVDA #MU #AAPL #Bitcoin #Crypto #StockMarket
TraderJonesy77,439 views • 5 months ago
This is where probability matters more than opinion. Right now, the data is very clear on the #SP500. There is a 70% probability we see 682 by Thursday. There is an 85% probability we see 682 by Friday. That doesn’t mean it happens in a straight line. It means the odds favor pressure to the downside from here. Could this be that 15-30% of the time the system fails? Sure. But we have to take the trade regardless. This is why we keep sizing small and why i have stressed that point. In today’s video, I break down why these probabilities exist, what the signals are showing and how I’m managing trades around it without over leveraging or forcing anything. Yesterday, we trimmed at $692 on that push lower. I plan to add back what I trimmed here at the open near $696. The goal is to take profit on what I add at the open back down at $693.5. Watch the video below for a further breakdown.
TraderJonesy59,304 views • 3 months ago
Everyone is panicking over Iran. Futures red. Feeds full of “this is the crash.” People convinced the market is about to unravel. I just dropped a full #SP500 breakdown explaining why this likely gets bought. If there is one video you watch this week, make it this one. I’ll say it again clearly. There is a 70% chance the #SP500 hits 690–693 by Wednesday. There is an 85% chance the #SP500 hits 690–693 by Thursday. Those probabilities didn’t disappear because of a headline. I’m in calls for next Friday. My plan was always to add size near 678–675. It looks like I may get that opportunity. And let me stress something most people ignore. Contract selection matters more than direction. You can be completely right about the move and still lose money if your delta is wrong, your gamma is weak or your expiration is too short. I started this short with about $6,000. Less than 0.5% of my total account. Go look at my pinned post. I constantly stress small size and building into positions. No single trade should ever exceed 6% of your total fund. At the open, my goal is simple. Bring strikes down. Improve delta and gamma. That way a partial move back up repairs the position quickly and continuation expands it. This is where opportunity meets preparation. Most will FOMO at the open. Most will react to emotion. Very few will execute a plan. I originally dropped this video for the Discord but I’m sharing it here because this week matters. I am not worried. I do not believe this is the true move. And that’s coming from someone who has been positioned for the larger unwind. If there is one thing I recommend you do, it is watch this video. Important things are about to happen. Those who prepare will be the ones who capitalize. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!! — TJ #SP500 #SPY #QQQ #TSLA #PLTR #NVDA #AAPL #Bitcoin #Crypto #stockmarket
TraderJonesy48,286 views • 3 months ago
There is a lot of questions about where the #SP500 is going. I decided to shoot a video on it. I go over in the video what needs to happen for us to expand to $750. At the same time I go over what needs to happen to see a rejection to head down towards $610. $SPY #SPX #SP500
TraderJonesy28,537 views • 2 months ago
A lot of people still don’t understand how ruthless systematic trading can be. This is exactly why I run a quant fund alongside everything else I do. The quant fund is built to measure momentum on the 4 hour timeframe. Nothing more. Nothing less. No opinions. No emotions. No discretion. It tracks 15 core stocks and follows the same rule set every single time. When the 4 hour signal line turns green and increases, it buys. When it rolls over and turns red, it exits. Period. This fund does not care what I think. It does not care what I want. It does not care about headlines, FOMC, earnings or narratives. It follows the signal to a T. That’s what makes it so powerful. This is completely separate from my main fund, which is longer term positioning based on monthly and weekly signal lines across sectors. It’s also completely separate from my options trades, which are built around a 2–3 month outlook and larger macro structure. Three different approaches. Three different time horizons. Three different objectives. The quant fund exists for one reason. To systematically capture short term momentum while removing every human weakness that causes traders to fail. The part most people can’t handle? They want to intervene. They want to override. They want to “feel” their way through it. Quant trading doesn’t allow that and that’s why it works. If you want discretion, opinions and emotion… this isn’t for you. If you want structure, probability and discipline… this is how accounts actually compound. That’s everything you need to know about my quant fund and the 4 hour signal line that drives it. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! — TJ #SP500 #SPY #QQQ #TSLA #PLTR #NVDA #AAPL #Bitcoin #Crypto #StockMarket
TraderJonesy43,814 views • 4 months ago
Everyone feels safe again. That’s usually when the market does the most damage. Bulls are comfortable up here. Too comfortable. New highs, shallow pullbacks, constant dip buying and endless optimism. The same mindset shows up every cycle right before things change. Hope creeps back in. Risk gets ignored. Complacency takes over. This is how they lure people in. The market rarely tops in fear. It tops in confidence. It tops when people are convinced nothing bad can happen anymore. When every dip is “free money.” When bad news is shrugged off and good news is celebrated twice as hard. And while that’s happening, the weekly signals are doing something very different. My weekly signal line has been warning that this move gets sold. Not chopped. Not paused. Sold. The kind of selling that doesn’t give you time to react. The kind that doesn’t let you “reposition.” The kind that turns staircases up into elevators down. That’s how this works. Markets grind higher slowly, painfully, lulling everyone into patience. Then when the turn finally comes, it’s fast. Violent. Emotional. Weeks of gains erased in days. Everyone remembers the staircase. Very few are prepared for the elevator. This isn’t about predicting the exact candle. It never is. It’s about recognizing the phase of the cycle we’re in. And this phase is marked by complacency, stretched positioning and signals that are rolling over while price still looks “fine.” That disconnect is where damage is done. I’ve been saying it consistently. Short term bounces don’t change larger signals. They create opportunity. Opportunity to manage risk. Opportunity to build positioning. Opportunity to stay patient while others get pulled back into hope. The video attached breaks this down in detail. The signals, the psychology and how I’m navigating it without getting emotional on every green or red candle. You don’t have to agree with me. Most people won’t until price forces them to. But when the staircase finally gives way to the elevator, this phase will make a lot more sense in hindsight. Thank you for your attention to this matter. — TJ #SP500 #SPY #QQQ #TSLA #PLTR #NVDA #AAPL #Bitcoin #Crypto #StockMarket #MoveTo600
TraderJonesy42,146 views • 4 months ago
We are nearing a major market top for the #SP500 and the rest of the market. And almost nobody sees it. Nobody believes it. That’s not an accident. Complacency has been engineered. Conditioning has done its job. I am expecting a 10% correction by end of Q1 for the #SP500 and #Nasdaq. I turned bearish on #Bitcoin near $110,000 and since then it has sold off 30%. Posts are there. The market will play catch up to #Bitcoin. Yields will continue to hurt equities. The VIX will continue to hurt equities. All of my signals remain primarily bearish on the weekly timeframe. Bulls have been trained to buy every dip. Bears have been trained to reposition on every dip. Some bears have even been pushed into flipping bullish at the worst possible point in the cycle. That’s how tops form. I’m staying objective. I’m trading signals over narratives. The larger thesis remains fully intact. Until that plays out, I’ll continue trading the short term probabilities while most people argue opinions. That’s the difference. — TJ #SP500 #SPY #QQQ #TSLA #PLTR #NVDA #MU #AAPL #Bitcoin #Crypto #StockMarket #MoveTo600
TraderJonesy40,231 views • 4 months ago
The $SPY Moon Boys are celebrating. The $TSLA Moon Boys are celebrating. The $NVDA Moon Boys are celebrating. The $AMD Moon Boys are celebrating. The #Bitcoin Moon Boys are celebrating. And their celebration is about to come to an end. Because while they’re cheering small green candles here near the highs, the signals underneath the surface are quietly doing the opposite. My hourly signal line has already rolled over. The 4 hour is rolling over. And the daily is now starting to turn. This is the exact confirmation I want. Which is why I added size yesterday. I did in fact tell everyone in the community to wait for the daily signal line confirmation to be safe.. These are the same signals that caught the last major legs down before the herd even realized what was happening. The same structure. The same behavior. The same warnings that everyone ignored until it was too late. Yet here we are again. They’re celebrating a small drift higher. They’re mistaking complacency for strength. They’re convincing themselves “this time is different.” It never is. In this video, I break down the signs across $SPY, $TSLA, $NVDA, $AMD and #Bitcoin and explain why the timeframes are starting to align for the next major move. We need a few more confirmed signals and this is golden for that next leg. The higher timeframe signals hasn’t improved. The trend hasn’t flipped. And the signal lines are all telling the same story. The nuke is getting close. Did we nail this exact top? Now you can all see that I am not perfect by no means.. But when it is all said and done, this tiny squeeze to a new high potentially... This 1% move? Is nothing to the 12% move coming on the #SP500, and 20% move coming on $TSLA. I need to see my signals flip bullish before I consider the alternative move to the upside. And as for $NVDA? I need to see the push to $193 before I get back in from when we exited down in the $170's and $180's. Most traders chase comfort. We position for what comes after it. #SP500 $SPY $TSLA $NVDA $AMD #Bitcoin #Trading
TraderJonesy31,186 views • 6 months ago
This is the part they said would never happen. The stock market is UNWINDING. The bulls are in shambles. $SPY is flushing hard. $QQQ is flushing hard. $TSLA is flushing hard. $NVDA is flushing hard. And no. This didn’t come out of nowhere. Everyone was warned. The signals warned weeks in advance. The divergence was there. The macro pressure was there. Liquidity was tightening while price floated higher. Bulls didn’t get blindsided. They got complacent. This is what happens when everyone is trained to buy every dip in a late cycle market. When the larger move starts, it shows no mercy. Dip buyers get trapped. Shorts who waited too long can’t reposition. Speed replaces comfort. This is how real unwinds begin. Yields are breaking out of an inverse head-and-shoulders. The $VIX has lifted off long term support. Weekly signal line divergence is now resolving down, exactly as warned. This wasn’t about calling a top candle. It was about positioning before price made it obvious. Patience wasn’t rewarded because it was lucky. It’s being rewarded because it was aligned. To those who stayed disciplined! Great Job! To those who laughed, doubted or trolled? Price will finish the argument. On the short term side note, There is a 70% chance that the S&P 500 hits $693 by Wednesday. There is a 85% chance that the S&P 500 hits $693 by Thursday. But the larger signals still remain intact. And once they start to play out, it throws out any short term moves. I remain in my larger position for March but I am closing out the small put position for January 21 for a nice 200% plus profit. I will be looking at short term calls for the move up to $693 while remaining in the larger position down. The calls I get into will completely be covered by the put position closed out for Jan 21st. The call position will be TINY! But on the long term side note, A 70% chance we see a 10% drop by end of February. And an 85% chance that we see a 10% drop by end of March. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! #SP500 #SPY #QQQ #TSLA #PLTR #NVDA #MU #AAPL #Bitcoin #Crypto #StockMarket #MoveTo600
TraderJonesy22,571 views • 4 months ago
I dropped this video in the community 2 hours ago. Enjoy. $SPY $SPX #SP500
TraderJonesy11,793 views • 2 months ago
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