Video yükleniyor...

Video Yüklenemedi

Ana Sayfaya Dön

This man got rich on Wall Street by admitting he couldn't predict anything. Everyone else was forecasting the future. He bet they were all fooling themselves. Nassim Taleb started trading in the 80s and noticed something nobody wanted to hear: people are hopeless at randomness. They hit a lucky...

65,812 görüntüleme • 17 gün önce •via X (Twitter)

0 Yorum

Yorum bulunmuyor

Orijinal gönderinin yorumları burada görünecek

Benzer Videolar

In 1950 a scientist at Bell Labs admitted, out loud, that he was envious of the geniuses in the offices around him. He was sharing an attic with Claude Shannon. So instead of resenting them, he spent the rest of his career studying exactly what separated the great ones from everyone else, and near the end of his life he laid the whole answer out in a single talk. His name was Richard Hamming. He was honest about where he started. At Los Alamos, he called himself a janitor of science, one of the people who kept things running while the important decisions happened without him. He was, in his own words, plain envious. And rather than swallow it, he turned it into a question. What actually is the difference between the first-class people and the rest of us? His first answer is uncomfortable, because it removes every excuse. It is not luck, though luck plays a part. It is not raw IQ, since plenty of the greats did not test especially well, and Einstein spent seven years in a patent office before anyone noticed him. What it comes down to, again and again, is that the able people simply work on important problems, and they work on them relentlessly, while everyone else stays busy with whatever happens to be in front of them. Then he tells the story that stays with you. For years he ate lunch with the physicists, the Nobel winners, and learned how they thought. One day he turned to a chemist at the table and asked, if what you are working on is not important, and not likely to lead to anything important, why are you working on it? The man was offended. But months later he stopped Hamming in the hallway and admitted the question had gotten under his skin. That chemist went on to run his department and join the National Academy. Of everyone else at that table, Hamming says, he never heard of a single one again. He noticed the same pattern in something as small as an office door. The people who worked with their doors closed got more done in the moment, but ten years later they no longer knew what was worth doing. The ones who left their doors open stayed connected to what actually mattered, even at the cost of constant interruption. And underneath all of it was a habit most people never build. He set aside Friday afternoons, every week, for nothing but great thoughts. No task, no email, just the question of what the important problems in his field really were, and whether he was working on any of them. He was not claiming to be the smartest man in the building. He knew he was not. That was the entire point. He watched the smartest men closely, took what he could use, and made himself into someone who did work that lasted. As he put it near the end, no one ever told him these things. He had to find them alone. You have no such excuse.

Zyron

15,886 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

A hedge fund returned over 4,000 percent in a single month during the COVID crash. It made no calls. It held the same tail-risk position it had held for 13 years. The strategy was designed by a former options trader who wrote three books arguing that almost every Wall Street success is luck. His argument has not changed since 2001. Wall Street still has not read it. The trader is Nassim Taleb. The fund is Universa. Their entire business model is losing small amounts of money on 99 percent of days in order to make catastrophic amounts on the 1 percent day everyone else is dying. Taleb learned the trade himself in October 1987. He was 27, long thousands of out-of-the-money puts nobody else wanted. When the Dow fell 22.6 percent on Black Monday, those puts paid a hundred times their cost. He walked away rich enough to never need a paycheck again. He has said publicly that the entire arc of his career was paid for on a single afternoon. He drew the wrong conclusion from it. Instead of writing "How I Beat Wall Street," he wrote "Fooled by Randomness" in 2001. The thesis: most traders who look brilliant are lucky, and the ones who blow up are the ones who confused a streak with a skill. Six years later, "The Black Swan" hit shelves in April 2007. It described the mechanism of a credit-driven collapse in plain English. Fifteen months later, Lehman went bankrupt exactly as described. Wall Street bought half a million copies. Not one desk changed how it sized risk. In 2012 came "Antifragile." His Stanford talk on it is on YouTube. 45 minutes. Some systems break under stress. Some hold. A rare few grow stronger. Muscles. Immune systems. Options portfolios. The trader who sizes small and holds long-tail exposure gains from the same crashes that kill everyone else. His most repeated line from Fooled by Randomness, printed 24 years ago: "Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance." That sentence is the whole book. It is also the exact argument in Rossst's article on telling a real edge from luck. The idea is not new. Taleb wrote it in 2001. Rossst wrote it again this week because nobody listened the first time. He wrote it in 2001. Rossst wrote it in 2026. Somebody will write it again in 2049.

Veles

11,602 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

A man who has made 19% a year for forty-five years spent most of them telling people Warren Buffett was just lucky. Then he listened to a podcast and apologised on air. "Wow, this guy is a genius, and I've been the biggest fool all along." That is Paul Tudor Jones. His original argument was never stupid, which is the part worth staying for. Buffett, he thought, was in the right place at the right time, riding the longest bull market in history. Put the same man in Japan starting in 1989 and see how well the genius holds up. It is a real objection. The Nikkei peaked in December 1989 and did not get back there until February 2024. Thirty-four years underwater. Buy and hold would have ruined you. He changed his mind anyway. He now calls Buffett the OG of compound interest, and then he says the line that should stop you. "He understood the power of compound interest at age nine, while I brilliantly avoided it throughout my entire career." That is not a man who failed at anything. So what exactly did he avoid? Selling. Run the same 19% two ways. Hold everything and pay capital gains once at the end, and forty years turns a dollar into 842. Realise your gains every year and pay tax as you go, and the same 19% turns a dollar into 287. Identical returns. Roughly three times the money, purely from not touching it. That is the price of being right often instead of being right once and then waiting. And here is what makes this honest rather than a lecture. Jones knows all of it now and still cannot do it. He says plainly he could not sit through a 50% drawdown, that his own wiring will not permit it. He wondered aloud why he couldn't just believe in America and ride it out. He can't. Fifty years of reflexes do not get argued away by arithmetic. So the lesson is not to go and be Buffett. It is to work out which one you actually are before the market tells you, because the two strategies are not interchangeable and neither are the people who run them. He is 71. He apologised to a man he had doubted for decades, and then admitted he would probably do it the same way again.

Veles

48,073 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

BOOM! I LEFT MAGA: Finally, a lady on a pro-Trump live asked him: “Are there a couple of big reasons in your mind that you didn’t like?” He looked at the camera and said: “Well, I like to paraphrase the late Ernest Hemingway in saying that my epiphany happened gradually and then suddenly all at once. And there were several reasons that led me to eventually leave.” Then this ultra-MAGA guy detonated truth bombs that are breaking the internet. He was a Republican his whole life. When Trump took office in 2016, he went full MAGA—never blinked. Then he started listening to both sides. He said: “I realized I’ve been lied to. All you have to do is open your eyes and see both sides, and it quickly dawns on you. A lot of people just don’t want to hear the truth. They don’t want to face the fact that they’ve been lied to this whole time. Who wants to be the dummy?” He used to think Jan. 6 was “overplayed.” He thought Proud Boys and Oath Keepers were political prisoners. Then he saw the court docket. Trump’s own lawyers never argued it wasn’t real—they argued he should be immune because he was president. They admitted it happened. They just said he shouldn’t be held accountable. And MAGA was still screaming “it was a setup.” He said: “I couldn’t go along with that.” Then one night, lying in bed, he put two and two together. He said: “It’s right there. You have to purposely not want to believe it.” He realized Democrats aren’t demons. Republicans aren’t fiscally responsible—they’re the ones burning cash while blaming everyone else. He said the fear was so loud it blinded him to the fact they delivered nothing. MAGA will call him a RINO. But that’s just because you can’t handle a man who got tired of being lied to. The truth is quiet. But once you hear it, you can’t unhear it. Welcome back to reality.

Popular Liberal 🇺🇸

300,128 görüntüleme • 22 gün önce