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This speech is less about celebration and more about signaling a shift in how the business will operate going forward. The numbers already show a clear pattern 16 years for the first 100 MMT, and now every 100 MMT coming in ~2 years. That kind of acceleration usually happens...

196,091 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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When the Fourth Turning Begins, Markets Reprice Trust And Not Just Assets The Dow to Gold ratio isn’t about calling the top in stocks or predicting a crash next week. It’s a long arc signal about confidence. When the ratio is high, it usually means investors are comfortable owning claims on future growth in stocks, earnings, promises. When it rolls over and trends lower for years, it’s usually because that confidence is fading and people start preferring assets that don’t depend on anyone else keeping their word. Gold doesn’t need earnings, policy support, or growth assumptions. It just sits there. A falling ratio is the market quietly saying that it trusts certainty more than optimism right now. Why The Turning Matters What stands out on this chart isn’t the volatility, it’s the duration. Every major decline in the ratio wasn’t a quick panic; it was a multi year repricing tied to a broader shift in the system. Stocks didn’t always implode overnight. Sometimes they went sideways for a decade while gold did the work. That’s the part people miss. You don’t need a dramatic crash for this ratio to fall hard. You just need an environment where real returns on financial assets are capped, diluted, or slowly eroded while uncertainty keeps rising. How This Lines Up With A Fourth Turning Mindset This is where the historical lens helps. Periods that later get described as crisis eras tend to share the same feel where institutions lose trust, policy becomes reactive instead of principled, and stability gets prioritized over efficiency. In those moments, markets stop rewarding growth narratives and start rewarding durability. That’s exactly the backdrop where the Dow to Gold ratio tends to compress. Not because people suddenly hate stocks, but because the system itself is being renegotiated on who pays, who’s protected, and what really counts as wealth. My View The chart is whispering regime change. It’s telling you that the next decade may look less like the last one, less about compounding returns and more about protecting purchasing power through uncertainty. Whether that plays out through lower stock prices, higher gold prices, or a long stretch of frustration in between, the message is the same that when confidence becomes scarce, collateral starts to matter more than stories. If you want more information on The Fourth Turning this was Neil Howe interview with Adam Taggart on his podcast Thoughtful Money® back in May.

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Author of Designing Data-Intensive Applications, Martin Kleppmann, on why scaling down is just as challenging as scaling up: “Part of what is interesting about modern cloud services, and backend services in general, is how they've introduced the idea of horizontal scalability and shared nothing systems. We can build systems that are able to cope with very high load, even if the individual components are just fairly cheap commodity machines. The scalability story is not just scaling up, but scaling down as well. How do you run a service in such a way that if it has a very small amount of load, it's really cheap to run? That's sort of the same question as ‘how do you continue running a service if it has a very high load?’ Generally, you want the cost and the computing capacity to be roughly proportional to the load that you have and at the low end, that means actually being able to scale down to something that is extremely cheap to run. That's not necessarily a given. It's something that is hard with on-premises software because if you've got a physical machine, that is a unit of deployment. Yes, you could carve it up into two dozen virtual machines, but it still requires some sort of resource allocation. And so, part of what's interesting about some serverless systems, is their ability to scale down and say ‘okay, if you're going to handle just three requests per day, that's just fine as well’”.

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Gavin Newsom goes off on the Trump Family corruption: Newsom: And I’m not talking about the $100,000 watches. I’m not talking about the guitars that he’s selling that you didn’t even know about, or the Bibles, or the sneakers. I’m not talking about all that. I’m talking about what’s happening substantively with these kids and these investments, and the Pentagon contracts they’re receiving on rare earth minerals and drone companies, and all the stuff that’s happening with the Kushner family, the Witkoff family, the “Board of Peace,” which is about getting a piece of the Middle East. Let’s talk about the UAE and high-value chips, where they’re getting a piece of our national security, where the Biden administration held off. But as long as you can get a deal done with the UAE on the private family businesses, then all of a sudden national security becomes less of an important talking point. Or how about the tariff relief in places like Vietnam for the golf courses and the development deals, and the dozen other countries that he’s doing business in? How about all the corruption as it relates to the self-dealing with his resorts and all of his assets that the Secret Service and taxpayers are subsidizing? Or directing G7 investments? Or the emoluments issues across the spectrum every day? Or just the day trading literally behind the Oval Office desk, or showing up on your calendar at a company that you just invested in because you know that stock’s going to pop because you’re going to promote it the next day? All of this happening—this open sewage system. You talk about draining the swamp. He gave it a presidential suite with gold leaf. And you’re seeing this gross corruption at a scale and scope never before seen in modern American history. This is stuff I don’t even imagine exists at this scale in a year and a half, even in Putin’s Russia or Kim Jong-un’s North Korea.

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For two hundred thousand years, intelligence has been the rarest resource on earth. Locked inside individual human minds. Non‑scalable. Scarce. Every advance in civilization — every leap in science, art, industry, and statecraft — flowed from that scarcity. Artificial intelligence breaks that pattern. It makes intelligence abundant. It makes it cheap. It makes it scale. This is not just another wave of automation or software. It is the industrialization of intelligence itself. When intelligence becomes a utility, it stops being a tool that sits on top of society and starts becoming the foundation of society. It is a transformation as profound as the harnessing of electricity — but on a higher plane. Electricity powered machines. Industrial intelligence powers knowledge. And knowledge shapes everything. This shift will reorder the very structures that underpin nations. The two pillars that define sovereignty — economic strength and security — are being rebuilt on a substrate of machine intelligence. Nations that master this new utility will not simply gain efficiency. They will redefine what prosperity, power, and freedom mean in the 21st century. For me, this is the central story of our time. It is not about the latest app. It is not about hype cycles. It is about the first time in history that intelligence itself — the raw material of progress — has become infinite and industrial. The question is not whether it will transform society. It already is. The question is who will shape that transformation.

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