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this video explained to me why my cs2 skin arbitrage bot actually works guy shows a working method - csfloat → skinport through his own google sheets calculator logic is right, formulas are correct only thing - while you're calculating one skin in excel, skinport refreshes another 200 listings...

117,046 views • 2 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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Chinese student used AI from Anthropic to turn $1,000 into $1,500,000 He studies at Tsinghua University in Beijing. His account is k9Q2m In such a young age he already make a million simply knowing the right formulas and being able to use Claude Result: $1,430 → $1,550,750 44,364 trades Win rate 100% The biggest win $23,600 on a single bet k9Q2m profile: How it bots work: The bot runs 6 formulas hedge funds use simultaneously, every tick. Most traders guess. This bot calculates. Formula 1 - LMSR Pricing Polymarket prices move on a logarithmic curve. The bot knows the exact price impact before entering. Market says 31¢ for BTC up in 5 minutes. The model sees the curve is mispriced. The bot enters before the correction. Formula 2 - Kelly Criterion Renaissance Capital uses it. Two Sigma uses it. Now your bot uses it. Every bet is sized exactly right. Never too big to blow the account. Never too small to matter. $1,000 bankroll. Consistent edge. Kelly compounds it into something real. Formula 3 - EV Gap Detection The bot scans every BTC market looking for one thing: - Where is the market price wrong by more than 5%? - Market says 30¢. Real probability is 55¢. EV = +0.52. The bot enters. Most people never see this gap. The bot never misses it. Formula 4 - KL-Divergence BTC 5-minute and 15-minute markets are correlated. When they drift apart - that's an arb. The bot measures the statistical distance between them every second. When it crosses 0.2, it flags the trade. This is how hedge funds extracted $100K+ on correlated election markets. The same logic runs here. Formula 5 - Bayesian Updates New block confirmed. Volume spike. Price movement. The bot doesn't ignore signals - it updates. Prior probability was 54%. New data comes in. Posterior jumps to 71%. The bot re-prices in real time while the market is still asleep. Formula 6 - Stoikov Execution Entering at the wrong moment kills the edge. The bot calculates the reservation price-the exact point where the risk-adjusted entry makes sense. It doesn't chase. It doesn't panic. It waits for the right tick, then fills What this means in practice: - Every few seconds the bot runs all six formulas in parallel. - If LMSR confirms mispricing - EV gap is above 5% - Kelly says the bet size is justified - Bayesian posterior agrees - KL-divergence flags the correlated drift - Stoikov clears the execution price Only then does the bot enter. Six filters. One trade. This isn't a trading bot. It's a hedge fund strategy running on a prediction market. The edge is real. The math is public. The difference is most people never build it. Just insert all these formulas into Claude and create your own bot Add this post to bookmarks so you don’t lose it Soon I will publish another bot with working formulas

AdiiX

717,013 views • 3 months ago

This wallet turned $5 into $3.7M not on bets. It simply introduced a lag tax on your TV broadcast. While 90% of the chat on Polymarket is foaming at the mouth arguing whether it was offside this algorithm silently withdraws six-figure sums. I broke down the mechanics of the swisstony wallet. His PnL chart looks like a database error or money laundering: +740К% ROI. Account: At first I thought this was an insider. But then I overlaid his trade timings onto real match time. And I felt a chill inside. This is not insider info. This is Reality Arbitrage. How exactly does he steal your profit? You are the Past. You watch football/basketball broadcast on TV or stream. You think this is Live. In reality the signal goes through satellites encoders and servers. Your delay is 15 to 40 seconds. He is the Future. The bot receives data directly from stadium providers through API. The moment of theft. A player scores a goal. The bot learns about this in 200 milliseconds. You will see it only in 30 seconds. During this half minute the Polymarket market still thinks the score is 0:0. People are holding sell orders on NO. Liquidity exists. The bot buys EVERYTHING. It takes free money from those who live in signal delay. When the goal is shown on TV the bot is already selling you your own bet but 3 times more expensive. You are not trading against him. You are simply his food supply. The harsh fact: You physically cannot win. Your eyes and fingers are too slow. Trying to trade manually against a Python script with direct API connection is like trying to outrun a fighter jet on a bicycle. You will always lose. If you want to stop being Exit Liquidity for algorithms you have only one way out. Stop playing the guessing game. Start using the same mechanics. This wallet can be copied. You don't need code you don't need servers for $5k a month. You just need to stand on the winner's side. P.S. The market is inefficient only while few people know about the hole. The window of opportunity closes fast. Act now.

Blaze

38,908 views • 5 months ago

I got laid off 3 weeks ago. My landlord called yesterday asking about next month's rent. Severance ran out. No interviews lined up. Then I found a trader who built a Quant Bot with Claude and pulled $221,897 profit on Polymarket. Since Apr 12, the setup averages $3,467 per day running 41 trades per hour. 62,812 predictions. 58% win rate. 64 days straight. His first trade was Mar 6. The real shift came Apr 12 when the bot switched to pure arbitrage: It finds moments when YES + NO pricing drops below 100 cents and exploits the gap before the market corrects. No prediction. Just delayed pricing and execution speed. He deposited $82.8K total. Now sitting at +267.9% ROI. His biggest wins: $5,475 became $10,651 (+94.52%) $2,109 became $5,082 (+140.9%) $1,316 became $3,916 (+197.44%) The process is repeatable: Find delayed pricing, enter early, press the same edge until the gap disappears. Most traders try to forecast outcomes. This bot just finds mispricing and acts faster than human reaction time. I rebuilt the same arbitrage framework with Claude. One prompt. Connected to Polymarket API. Let it monitor pricing gaps 24/7. The bot scans every market continuously, calculates when YES + NO fall below parity, and fires trades in milliseconds. No emotions. No hesitation. Just math exploiting inefficiency. You only need Claude + device + 1 hour per day. Giving this free for 24 hours. To get it: 1. Comment the word [Money] 2. Like and retweet this 3. Follow me Himanshu Kumar so I can DM you Save this post. Build the arbitrage bot this weekend. Start with $500. Scale on evidence.

Himanshu Kumar

51,512 views • 12 days ago

Why is nobody talking about Polymarket's official API? You open Polymarket Wait for it to load... Click on a market... Wait again... Try to check another one... More waiting... By the time you see the price, it's already stale The opportunity moved while you were clicking through pages Someone else got there first There's a better way // Found the gem hiding in plain sight - library py-clob-client Official from Polymarket. MIT license I spent a week working with multiple markets Checking prices across different positions Monitoring various categories Tracking market movements Then discovered this library Game changer for workflow efficiency // Real example from last week: UI approach: Checking markets one by one through the interface API approach: Monitoring all relevant markets simultaneously with live updates Having comprehensive real-time data makes a meaningful difference Speed and information clarity are valuable advantages // Want to go deeper? Build an arbitrage bot You'll need Rust for execution speed Deploy the server geographically close to Polymarket's infrastructure Every millisecond counts when opportunities last 1-2 seconds. I built mine in Go for monitoring and analysis. Works great for that. But if you're hunting arbitrage at scale against other bots, Rust + low latency setup is the only way. The infrastructure race is real // "But I can't code" With today's AI tools you actually can Cursor, ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Kimi, Grok - they write code for you You just describe what you want AI generates it You copy-paste and run Join Polymarket to create: Programming is no longer a barrier Anyone can build now

BuBBliK

43,612 views • 6 months ago