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Threadguy breaks down the recursive death spiral that could unwind Strategy "I don't fully understand the alchemy in the Strategy ecosystem, but here's what I do know. The only way you get Stretch back to peg, if it doesn't just trade there, is you raise the yield. It's at...

15,103 Aufrufe • vor 15 Tagen •via X (Twitter)

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Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Chris Millas

36,835 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

Keegan Bradley says losing the Ryder Cup at Bethpage was the “darkest time of his life”. However, he also would love to do it again and “avenge that loss.” Speaking ahead of the Hero World Challenge, he said: “I have this like gaping hole in my career now that I don't know that I'll ever be able to fill. This isn't something that you lose the Masters, you lose a tournament, I'm going to work extra hard to get back and win. “Being the captain of the Ryder Cup team is not something you can work hard for, it's just something that's sort of elected on you. “I don't know. Of course I would love to do it again, I would love to avenge that loss, but that's not up to me. That's not up to -- I don't think that's fair for me to come out here and say that. “But I would love to do it again at some point. I don't know if that will ever happen, probably won't. I think if you ask any losing captain if they would like to do it again, they would all want another shot.” On what the weeks after the Ryder Cup were like for him emotionally, he said: “I mean, the darkest time of my life probably. I mean, I don't know how else to describe it. Certainly, definitely of my career. There's always this letdown after a Ryder Cup or Presidents Cup regardless of the outcome because the emotions are so extreme. It's Ryder Cup hangover and you're just exhausted and you're down, you know. That takes a toll on you. “But there's just, it just was, it just was a tough time. Still is. But to be honest with you, the last couple weeks I've felt more like myself. Getting back, getting ready to play tournaments, playing the Skins game, getting ready to come play here. “Really, it's been tough for all of us; not just me, the players as well. I feel like every time I see a player on the team here I want to just go give him a hug and sit down and chat. But I'm grateful for everybody. I'm in a unique position where I could make another team, which has never been done. I would love to do that.” What are your thoughts on this, would you give Keegan another shot at being Captain in 2027?

Flushing It

269,122 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

“What did you think of Lando being booed at race because people and I've seen it online as well say he doesn't deserve the title because McLaren favored him over his teammate. Do you think that's total nonsense?” Jacques Villeneuve: “That's a little bit ridiculous. When there was some booing in some races, that was embarrassing. You should never boo a driver that's clean, doesn't do anything dirty, on track is respectful, and on top of it is super fast. What's wrong with people? That was embarrassing. And, had it been that Piastri was a second a lap faster than him and somehow Lando was winning because a lot of things were happening, his car breaking down every time, then you could start thinking, okay, that's really not cool. That's not fair. But that wasn't the case. And in the second half, Norris has been faster right at the beginning as well, last year as well. So there's this whole middle of the season where Piastri was driving a lot better than Norris and was getting the points. Norris had an engine blowing up, not Piastri. And so those fans, they don't look at that either. You have to look at the whole picture, at the whole season. And suddenly if your favorite is starting to go backwards, you just got to bite the bullet and accept it. Your favorite is just going backwards. That doesn't mean that the other one is treated better or the other one is undeserving just because the one you're a fan of is not winning right now. That’s really wrong. If you're a fan of the sport, then you have to be a fan of the sport and understand when your driver is maybe not cutting it at this point in time, even though he was before and he will in the future again. It's all a question of timing. But that's the price we have to pay now with social media and how big F1 has become. It's very passionate. The people are passionate and once, you know, fans come from fanatism, you stop thinking, when you get in that mindset and it happens to all of us. You want something so much that you get attached and you cannot - it's hard to start seeing reality. So you will try to mold the reality to your thought process and if your champion is not winning then it cannot be his fault. It has to be something from the outside. It has to be the team destroying his chance or not favoring and so on and so on and so on. But there's nothing concrete behind those comments. It's pure fandom and it'll always be like this. And ultimately it's not a bad thing. You know drivers at that - sportsman at that level have to grow a thick skin. If not, you don't deserve to be there. You just have to have a thick skin because they're all very happy to get the compliments. They love it when it's just positive, but it gets balanced out with negatives and you need to be able to take and accept the negatives as well. It goes both ways. You cannot have the good. You just have to be a thick skin and know that it's part and parcels of what's going on. And in one month, it will be forgotten and maybe everything will change and it be the other driver that suddenly will be criticized and so on. So, it's just that's just the way it is.”

naenia ¹ ⁶³

29,833 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

"And so sometimes like God speaks to me, I think primarily God speaks through me through action. And I think he speaks through everyone through action. You know, we like to talk a lot, but not a lot of people like to live it out. And I make mistakes, but I want to try to live it out to the best of my ability. I think secondly, through the way of communication, I've always had a heart to make complex ideas simpler to understand because I'm not a smart guy. I have a hard time reading Shakespeare and complex literature, so I like doing that. But sometimes I'll be sitting and talking with someone, and I feel like God tells me something about the person. They're struggling with something or if they've got a physical ailment and I'll ask. And sometimes it's true. Sometimes it's not. I'm not not discouraged if it's right or wrong, but if it's right, sometimes God speaks through that way. Those are a few ways God speaks through me, but, but the intrusive thing is so beautiful because I think he can speak to everyone intrusively and it is so sweet when it happens. And it was, it was happening this morning to me in the shower, which is so sweet and beautiful, you know. I struggle a lot with what people think about me because I've always struggled with people pleasing before being a Christian. And so, you know, if I'm misunderstood or someone takes something in the way that I didn't say it, I get hurt because I'm like, oh, I didn't mean it that way. Or, you know, whatever. So I'm kind of talking to Jesus and I'm in the shower praying and I'm going, man, God, I want to be more like you. I want to be how you want me to be. I want to love you. And I want to be your son. And I just want to focus on being yours. And I don't want to care what other people think. And this, this and that. And Jesus was speaking to me about some practical things I needed to do. Like it would help you if you, you know, stopped looking at what people say online. It would help if you deleted Instagram. And it would help if you did this. And, it would help if you would just trust other people to do what they're supposed to do. So you can focus on being mine. And I'm sitting there in the shower going like, wow, this is so good. And it's so hard, but it's so good." Bryce Crawford, Minister

Tetragrammaton

98,771 Aufrufe • vor 28 Tagen

Thinking about Terry Gilliam's Brazil. Specifically the rouge HVAC tech Harry Tuttle, played by Robert De Niro. Tuttle, tired of government bureaucracy keeping him from his work, became an outlaw. He tells us he's "in it for the action". He loves fixing HVAC systems, and he's not going to let rules and regulations stand in his way. He continues in his work even though he's being hunted by the Secret Police. Why not hang it up? Why does he keep going? He doesn't stop because he can't stop. He's compelled to do it, and he couldn't stop if he wanted to. So he sneaks around in the dead of night, armed, watching out for ambushes, fixing heating systems--because he has to. Harry Tuttle cares about fixing heating systems more than he cares about his own life... A topic I keep returning to is the extreme amount of hard work and dedication required to make a movie. It's become a recurring theme of mine, mainly because it just doesn't seem to land with readers. That's probably due to my poor writing skills. But then again, maybe there's no way to explain it. Maybe to truly understand, it's something you have to experience for yourself. Like Harry Tuttle, the people who make movies will do whatever it takes to make their film. They do this because they care about making movies more than anything. They care more about making movies than their spouses, their children, or friends, or morality, or decency, or money, or anything and everything else you can think of. Not that they don't care about those things. But the work comes first. And again, they'll do whatever it takes to make it happen. They'll even risk their own lives (and the lives of others) to get that perfect shot. I've seen that many times over. I've even done it myself. Why do they do this? It's because they have to do it. They're compelled. When the urge to create hits--when it REALLY hits--you have to get it out. You have to make it REAL. And failure isn't an option. It's not about the money or the fame or the accolades. It's about creating the thing they've been inspired to create. And again, they do whatever it takes. They're not going to let anyone or anything stop them. This isn't something you can learn in school, or by watching Youtube videos. And it isn't something that's gifted to you by the "gatekeepers" (except by God maybe...) It's something you're born with. And it makes you abnormal--defective. Life is going to hard. Nothing will ever be good enough. It will be hard to get close to people. And any relationship you manage to build will be wrecked. But if you don't have it--if you don't have The Thing--if you don't have that compulsion, then don't even fucking try. There are easier ways to earn a living. Maybe you should go to Law School kid... So when I see online chatter about "Gatekeepers" or (most laughably) "The Joos" preventing them from making the things they want to make, I just shake my head. Because they have no clue what it is to actually create. If you're really a creator, if you're truly inspired, if you have what it takes (if you have That Thing) then you'll figure out a way. And you won't let anything get between you and your creation. Because you're not brittle like that. OR, maybe you ARE brittle. But that compulsion--That Thing--is going to glue you together. It's going to make you strong. It's going to make you unstoppable. But most of these people are just whiners. Posting--just typing shit--is a low effort activity. It requires almost no sacrifice. If they really cared about creating the content they want to see then they'd go out and do it. And I would invite everyone to try. But again, it's not easy. And you're probably not cut out for this type of work. So you'll probably give up. But that's fine. You can always just open the app and whine. And I'll be here too--probably still trying to get the point across. After all, I'm just in it for the action🤷‍♂️

Rambo Van Halen

28,638 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten