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Thursday Note to Subscribers: $AMD “Our Top Idea into Friday, Pure High Confluence look for move to $250 -> $253” AMD 4-10 240C: +900% ($9 ITM) AMD 4-17 270C: +355% 🦠

31,718 views • 5 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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Some time ago, I had the idea to port NVIDIA Physical AI stack to AMD. The motivation was to improve hardware diversity and enable world models and VLAs to run beyond a single ecosystem. We started with NVIDIA Cosmos Predict 2.5-2B. Porting wasn’t trivial: these models are deeply optimized for NVIDIA’s stack. We used this as an opportunity to apply our ROCm kernels. The results were surprising: Both encode and diffusion run faster on AMD Instinct MI300X vs. NVIDIA H200 (FA3) and we still saw significant headroom for further optimization. Quality is unchanged across modalities (validated with WorldJen) To be clear, this is no luck. We have deep experience with diffusion models and AMD GPUs. But this just gives us a good opportunity to get closer to a true hardware-to-hardware comparison, as we work with less software abstractions than usual. Just to give an example, on AMD, memory instructions are async with a hardware queue of ordered pending instructions, enabling concurrent load/store with compute without warp specialization. Bottom line: there are real architectural advantages on AMD, if you take the time to work with the hardware. Note, we did tradeoff ~20% higher memory usage, That being said, AMD has more to give to begin with :) in the coming weeks: AMD versions of Cosmos Transfer and GR00T, an even faster version of Cosmos Predict, and open-sourcing an attention kernel faster than AITER v3 (which is closed-source for some reason? cc: Anush Elangovan )

Omer Shlomovits

36,648 views • 5 months ago

$AMD $NVDA & the AMD Bear SemiAnalysis 🧵 Here are some facts: $META allocated 42% AI GPUs to $AMD OpenAI allocated 6GW(38%) to $AMD 1. Model-Specific Bias: Llama 3.3 70B graph favored NVIDIA due to TRT-LLM optimizations, highlighting throughput and latency where Blackwell excels. In contrast, the GPT-OSS 120B chart shifts focus to cost and interactivity, where MI355X shines. This selective model choice clearly suggests SemiAnalysis tailors benchmarks to reinforce narratives—NVIDIA’s dominance in speed (Llama 3.3) and AMD’s niche in cost (GPT-OSS). GPT-OSS 120B, with its sparse attention mechanisms (similar to DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp), shows AMD’s CDNA 4 architecture, while Llama 3.3’s dense attention favors NVIDIA’s Tensor Cores. SemiAnalysis’ decision to emphasize Llama 3.3 initially could reflect its AMD bear stance. 2. The way Data is presented The Llama 3.3 graph focused on raw performance metrics (throughput vs. latency), downplaying cost, where AMD holds an edge. This new chart, buried in follow-up posts, reveals AMD’s strength but receives less prominence, suggesting a curated narrative. Labeling variability (e.g., B200 with/without TRT) and the lack of uniform scaling across graphs indicate potential cherry-picking of configurations to favor NVIDIA’s optimized setups. 3. Historical Context: SemiAnalysis’ past critiques of AMD’s R&D and ROCm (web results from May 2025) align with a bearish outlook. Their own hype/brand around NVIDIA’s 15x ROI contrasts with muted coverage of AMD’s cost advantages, reinforcing bias. Despite AMD’s participation in InferenceMAX, the benchmark’s framing (e.g., prioritizing Blackwell’s ROI) reflect SemiAnalysis’ market predictions rather than balanced analysis. Lastly, AMD’s Instinct MI355X proves superior in inference and cost per million tokens for the GPT-OSS 120B model, offering a 25% cost advantage over NVIDIA’s H200 at moderate-to-high interactivity levels. This efficiency, driven by AMD’s memory bandwidth and FP4 support, makes it a better choice for cost-sensitive, multi-user deployments over a three-year horizon. However, SemiAnalysis’ sole focus(presentation graph) on Llama 3.3—where NVIDIA excels demonstrates a pattern of cherry-picking models and data to favor NVIDIA , consistent with its historical AMD bearish stance. This selective presentation risks misleading stakeholders by overshadowing AMD economic strengths. My personal take: I would trust Dr. Lisa Su, and Greg Brockman Sam Altman take on AMD and how they viewed and allocated 6GW for AMD over SemiAnalysis . At the end of the day, Large customers pay when it works. $Meta allocated 42% AI GPUs to $AMD for a reason. And the "secret weapon" will improve energy consumption by 20-50%, meaning at 6GW, OpenAI would be able to deploy 25-50% more MI450 at a much better cost advantage, higher memory bandwidth, and the queen of Inference! Oh and ROCm 8 is expected to be on par with CUDA in 2026.

Mike

104,194 views • 11 months ago

$AMD Massive Rotation from $NVDA $INTC🧵 Not Financial Advice! DYOR! 5-10 minutes before the bell today, last trading day of May 2026, massive rotation out of $INTC and $NVDA into $AMD. I wrote this thread this morning on what $TSM said on Energy Efficiency is now TOP Priotity and why AMD is the biggest winner. Of course I did not have influence on this rebalancing, I was just pointing out why Dr. Su saw this coming years ago. (Check the picture to understand more). I been talking about Agentic AI for like 3-4 years now. OpenClaw broke the CPU:GPU Ratio 1:4 narrative to 1:1 to 5:1 in late Jan and Feb 2026. I will link various threads where you can understand the full picture from supply chain, to TSMC expansion, and different Wafer Ratio for EPYC Venice and MI455X. Energy efficiency is a structural, long-term driver behind institutional rotation from $NVDA and $INTC into $AMD (with spillover strength in $AVGO for complementary networking/custom silicon). This isn't just short-term rebalancing, it's a massive bet on the shift from AI training (performance-at-any-cost) to inference, deployment, and embodied/agentic systems (where total cost of ownership, power draw, and scalability dominate). Precisely What I been writing about $AMD for years now, probably at least more than 5,000 threads.This is the FOMO from Institutions to own $AMD. Do know that AMD is the least owned Semi Stock among vs Peers. AI infrastructure is moving beyond massive training clusters to widespread inference for Agentic AI (running models 24/7) and embodied AI (robots, autonomous agents, edge devices). These workloads prioritize: ~Tokens-per-watt and performance-per-watt ~Lower total power consumption for data centers facing grid constraints ~Better economics at scale (cost-per-token, TCO) ~Thermal and power efficiency for on-device/robotics use Hyperscalers are now thinking more about Margin, Profitability, and $/M Tokens At $516/share. AMD Fwd PEG Ratio is still 35/100+= 0.35 AKA very cheap IMO for the growth and potential. A. Why institutions rotated out of $NVDA? Because Agentic AI is going to dominated by CPUs for years to come, moving violently to 5-10-20:1 CPU:GPU Ratio as enterprises are demanding more than 10-20 agents to run tasks. Now, that does not mean training is going away, Inference is just going to grow much faster. B. Why instiutitons rotated out of $INTC? Because AMD x86 unit share is only at 30-31% but Revenue share is already at 46.2% according to Mercury Research. And Dr. Su wants 50-60% market share, and that would mean 60-70%+ Revenue share where the CPUs TAM Is now already at $200B in 2026 and projected to be $500B by 2030. C. Why $AMD? Because AMD secured meaningful 2nm Capacity, Advanced Packaging and Memory through 2027-2028. And TSMC is expanding 2 primary 2nm Fabs toward 60-65k WPM each, and speeding up 5 2nm Fabs in Taiwan. With total up to 12 2nm Fabs through 2027/2028. 2nm Capacity is expected to be 140k+ WPM toward end of 2026, and 220-240k WPM by end of 2027. Apple has secured 35-45k WPM. And AMD does not have to worry about allocation competition until late 2027 from $AVGO for $META and $GOOGL(This may change) D. Agentic AI will evolve to 24/7 Autonomous Agent, and that will become the foundational layer for Robotic or Physical AI. Agentic AI (autonomous systems that plan, reason, use tools, self-correct, pursue long-horizon goals, and adapt) provides the high-level cognitive architecture. It turns raw perception and low-level control into useful, general-purpose behavior in the physical world. Physical AI (or Embodied AI) refers to AI that senses, understands, and acts directly in the real world through robots, actuators, and sensors. Agentic capabilities are what make this scalable and useful beyond narrow, scripted tasks. Reactive/programmed machines → To proactive, goal-oriented autonomous agents. How does this work? Autonomous Agent layer is the brain ~Vision-Language-Action models or robotics foundation models. ~Agentic loops: Planning, chain-of-thought reasoning, reflection, tool use (simulators, APIs), multi-step task decomposition. ~Persistent 24/7 operation with Memory, world modeling, continuous learning. Institutions may not like $AMD from 2022-2025, but they cannot stop this evolution and it is inevitable. Part of my main thesis for AMD to get to $5 Trillion Market Cap Long Term. Conclusion: Institutions are rotating capital toward AMD not merely for tactical rebalancing, but because Dr. Lisa Su and her team anticipated this exact inflection years in advance and have been methodically engineering AMD’s platform to dominate it. Dr. Su has long championed the convergence of Agentic AI as the high-level cognitive foundation for Physical AI and robotics. As far back as her 2023/2024 CES keynote and earlier strategic commentary, she described Physical AI (including humanoid robotics and edge autonomy) as “the next big thing”; a natural extension of agentic workflows moving from digital reasoning to real-world action. She emphasized that enabling persistent, 24/7 autonomous agents requires a full-stack approach: high-performance CPUs for orchestration and motion control, dedicated accelerators for real-time vision and multimodal inference, and open software ecosystems for rapid development. This vision aligns precisely with the structural drivers we’ve discussed. As AI shifts from training to massive-scale inference and embodiment, energy efficiency, total cost of ownership, and heterogeneous compute become first-order advantages. AMD’s Instinct MI350/MI355 series, Ryzen AI Embedded processors, and EPYC platforms deliver superior performance-per-watt and balanced CPU + GPU + NPU integration ideal for power-constrained robots that must run sophisticated agentic reasoning loops without excessive thermal or battery drain. Dr. Su has repeatedly highlighted the rising importance of CPUs in agentic systems (moving toward 1:1 or even CPU-heavy ratios with GPUs), positioning AMD’s strengths in orchestration, memory handling, and efficiency as critical for the next phase of growth. AMD is engineered for the deployment realities of embodied agents: scalable, efficient, and deployable at the edge and in physical systems. The institutional flows out of NVDA and INTC into AMD reflect recognition of this prepared leadership. Dr. Su didn’t just see the future of Agentic AI powering robotics, she has spent years building the silicon, software, and partnerships to make it practical and economically viable. This rotation signals confidence that the companies best positioned for the physical, always-on intelligence layer will capture the highest-volume opportunities in the coming decade. Not Financial Advice! DYOR!

Mike

104,109 views • 4 months ago

$AMD | Folks are asking why there is a massive disconnect here between $800 and $465 🧵 May be this should help, and most subscribers and followers already know. 1. I don't offer Financial Advice! 2. We have so many individual and institutional bears who made millions selling AI bubble fear porn and think they are smarter than the best CEOs in the world. Hence most semiconductor stocks are trading at 15–25x forward P/E even with massive growth, AMD included. I actually believe this is healthy, keeping valuations in check to give new investors better return. Would u prefer to invest at 15-25x fwd P/E or 30-50x fwd P/E? 3. Guidance is issued by the quarter, so we will only know officially in November 2026 for that biggest inflection in Q4. 4. Institutions are rotating back and forth between value stocks and growth stocks; out of AI, into AI stocks; one week risk-on, another week risk-off. They are trading much more frequently now. 5. Most AMD analysts are becoming more and more bullish, but projections and forecasts are still 30–50% lower than what management has provided so far. We all know Dr. Su is the queen of sandbagging, so adjust accordingly. This is the first time I heard her tell analysts directly on the Q&A that their estimates are too low. 6. Institutions are accepting that agentic AI is going to have a severe shortage and that it will also take time for TSMC to scale. The largest CPU ramp will be #1 AMD, then #2 NVIDIA from Q4 2026. So institutions have some months to play around and see what the Federal Reserve is saying. TSMC is scaling 11-15 2nm Fabs at the fastest pace since its inception btw!!! 7. TSMC does not really disclose customers' allocation, so most of us are projecting from available data, which makes growth 10x more difficult to predict. However, AMD is TSMC’s third largest customer and is on track to become the second largest. The largest CoWoS allocation increase for 2027 is AMD, per a Morgan Stanley note. 8. Just because I gave out my personal PT does not mean it will get there. It may be higher or lower. I just know that even at $800 it would be trading at 30–35x FY2027 P/E, which is reasonable for triple-digit growth, in my opinion. A few potential rate hikes could lower forward P/E a bit, but they will not be able to stop the J-curve quarters and years from AMD over the next 3–5 years. 9. Yield is getting pretty attractive for fixed income folks, so semiconductor stocks do have competition. The demand for capital is so high right now that yields rise monthly to build out data centers. That is the reality most of us have to accept. It is funny that the folks lending the capital to hyperscalers, AI labs, and neoclouds have some of the most bearish takes on the AI industrial revolution. 10. Yield is getting pretty attractive for fixed income folks, hence Semi stocks do have competition. The demand for capital is so high right now, that yield rises weekly/monthly to build out Data Centers. It is the reality that most of us have to accept. It is funny that the folks that are lending the capital for Hyperscalers , AI Labs and Neoclouds have some of the most bearish takes on AI Industrial revolution:)) 9. We just had one of the biggest deleveraging events in semis that blew up many accounts from the U.S. to South Korea. 10. People call me crazy in 2024-2025 to say AMD may hit $620 (my old personal PT) by end of 2026, we werent really that far off $620 2 months ago:)). Again, I been covering AMD for years, and Agentic AI demand is going to pump CPU demand by 50-100x vs 2024-2025. We are only 6 months in, and Agents are now using 14x more tokens than Human. Keep in mind, we are only 3-5 agents on average across all Enterprises. We are just so early. Medium-Long Term, Hyperscalers, AI labs and Enterprises will scale to hundreds and thousands of Agents doing tasks 24/7 using various AI Models from cheap to most expensive. People called me crazy in 2024–2025 for saying AMD may hit $620 (my old personal PT) by the end of 2026. We weren’t really that far off $620 two months ago. Alright, that is it. Not Financial Advice! DYOR!

Mike

51,084 views • 1 month ago