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Tomorrow I will get paid. You probably won't... 250+ months. Same $SPY and broad index behavior. NFP doesn't just move the market that day. It sets the levels that hunt your stops and creates the trend for the foreseeable future. NFP drops at 8:30am. Watch the chaos. I'll explain... show more

Paper Gains

57,332 subscribers

14,999 次观看 • 6 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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The Get Out Reframe Free yourself from endless negative thoughts by saying, "Get out" Try it just once and see how it works Scott Adams "There's a part of you that lives only in your head, where you think about the past, which literally doesn't exist. It's imaginary. It existed at one point, but now it's just the thoughts of the past. You also have thoughts of what will happen in the future. And that doesn't exist. So the life you live in your head is a completely imaginary one."

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One of the strangest patterns in the stock market that you don't know about! $SPY $VTI $VOO I recently watched an interview with Samir Varma, a theoretical physicist turned trader hedge-fund manager- he earned his doctorate in particle physics from University of Texas at Austin, and was one of the first to execute profitably quantitative futures strategies. He noted - over 30 years, almost all of $SPY ’s gains happened while the market was CLOSED! I found this super interesting, so I did some digging to see if this was true and here's the data: According to a long-term analysis (1993–2025), the “overnight” strategy for SPY i.e. buy at close, sell at next open, yielded cumulative gains of 1,105%, while the “intraday” strategy, buy at open, sell at close, only delivered about 27% over the same period i.e. - If you bought at the close every day and sold at the next open, your return would be about +1,100% - If you bought at the open and sold at the close, your return is only around +27% Same index, same time period but insanely different returns. This doesn’t mean the market always drops during the day - it just means that the average intraday move has been very small over the long run, while the average overnight move has been much larger. Why might this happen? - News and earnings usually come out after hours - Futures markets react overnight - Big institutions hedge when markets are closed - Risk premium for holding exposure through uncertainty This pattern shows up again and again in the data. Why this is not a free trading strategy? because costs and spreads can wipe out the edge if you try to time it. But for long-term investors, it highlights something important: - A big part of the compounding has come from simply holding overnight. - The market often moves the most while you’re not watching, a lesson for intraday index traders ;)

Common Sense Investor (CSI)

89,024 次观看 • 9 个月前

One of the strangest patterns in the stock market that you don't know about! $SPY $VTI $VOO I recently watched an interview with Samir Varma, a theoretical physicist turned trader hedge-fund manager- he earned his doctorate in particle physics from University of Texas at Austin, and was one of the first to execute profitably quantitative futures strategies. He noted - over 30 years, almost all of $SPY ’s gains happened while the market was CLOSED! I found this super interesting, so I did some digging to see if this was true and here's the data: According to a long-term analysis (1993–2025), the “overnight” strategy for SPY i.e. buy at close, sell at next open, yielded cumulative gains of 1,105%, while the “intraday” strategy, buy at open, sell at close, only delivered about 27% over the same period i.e. - If you bought at the close every day and sold at the next open, your return would be about +1,100% - If you bought at the open and sold at the close, your return is only around +27% Same index, same time period but insanely different returns. This doesn’t mean the market always drops during the day - it just means that the average intraday move has been very small over the long run, while the average overnight move has been much larger. Why might this happen? - News and earnings usually come out after hours - Futures markets react overnight - Big institutions hedge when markets are closed - Risk premium for holding exposure through uncertainty This pattern shows up again and again in the data. Why this is not a free trading strategy? because costs and spreads can wipe out the edge if you try to time it. But for long-term investors, it highlights something important: - A big part of the compounding has come from simply holding overnight. - The market often moves the most while you’re not watching, a lesson for intraday index traders ;)

One of the strangest patterns in the stock market that you don't know about! $SPY $VTI $VOO I recently watched an interview with Samir Varma, a theoretical physicist turned trader hedge-fund manager- he earned his doctorate in particle physics from University of Texas at Austin, and was one of the first to execute profitably quantitative futures strategies. He noted - over 30 years, almost all of $SPY ’s gains happened while the market was CLOSED! I found this super interesting, so I did some digging to see if this was true and here's the data: According to a long-term analysis (1993–2025), the “overnight” strategy for SPY i.e. buy at close, sell at next open, yielded cumulative gains of 1,105%, while the “intraday” strategy, buy at open, sell at close, only delivered about 27% over the same period i.e. - If you bought at the close every day and sold at the next open, your return would be about +1,100% - If you bought at the open and sold at the close, your return is only around +27% Same index, same time period but insanely different returns. This doesn’t mean the market always drops during the day - it just means that the average intraday move has been very small over the long run, while the average overnight move has been much larger. Why might this happen? - News and earnings usually come out after hours - Futures markets react overnight - Big institutions hedge when markets are closed - Risk premium for holding exposure through uncertainty This pattern shows up again and again in the data. Why this is not a free trading strategy? because costs and spreads can wipe out the edge if you try to time it. But for long-term investors, it highlights something important: - A big part of the compounding has come from simply holding overnight. - The market often moves the most while you’re not watching, a lesson for intraday index traders ;)

Common Sense Investor (CSI)

67,677 次观看 • 6 个月前

At 10:32 am EST today, Trump made a post, causing the market to dump in only 2 candles. It was very interesting that at 10:00 am, my program showed HUGE put buying right before the actual pull 🤯 And then, at 10:34, call buying started to kick in, and that was the curl for a nice uptrend for the rest of the day. $SPY

At 10:32 am EST today, Trump made a post, causing the market to dump in only 2 candles. It was very interesting that at 10:00 am, my program showed HUGE put buying right before the actual pull 🤯 And then, at 10:34, call buying started to kick in, and that was the curl for a nice uptrend for the rest of the day. $SPY

Mark Moses

32,396 次观看 • 2 个月前

🎙️: “this could be championship weekend for you lando norris” lando: “i'm excited for all of it. i've never been in this situation before but i'm excited, i think it's exciting for everyone. i think i certainly would have liked to have the 30 point gap instead of 24 to whoever it is, but yeah makes it more exciting for you guys i guess so good for you. and no, i think i'll just go and try and do the same thing i'll focus on trying to get good quali and have a good race and just take one step at a time. i don't mind, of course the earlier i can do it the better but at the same time that doesn't change how i do anything i just need to try and win and simple as that”

🎙️: “this could be championship weekend for you lando norris” lando: “i'm excited for all of it. i've never been in this situation before but i'm excited, i think it's exciting for everyone. i think i certainly would have liked to have the 30 point gap instead of 24 to whoever it is, but yeah makes it more exciting for you guys i guess so good for you. and no, i think i'll just go and try and do the same thing i'll focus on trying to get good quali and have a good race and just take one step at a time. i don't mind, of course the earlier i can do it the better but at the same time that doesn't change how i do anything i just need to try and win and simple as that”

ray

435,630 次观看 • 10 个月前