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Traders are dialing back bets on a September Fed rate hike after subdued US underlying inflation last month. The 'hawkish bar has been raised,' economist Odeta Kushi says, but with more key inflation and economic data still to come, the Fed isn’t off the hook just yet

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My thoughts on the Fed: "The Fed has put us on a rollercoaster. With COVID, we had an acceleration in the money supply. Then, inflation went up. With that, we had Quantitative Tightening, and inflation came down. Now the Fed has switched back to QE." THE FED = FLIES BLIND.

My thoughts on the Fed: "The Fed has put us on a rollercoaster. With COVID, we had an acceleration in the money supply. Then, inflation went up. With that, we had Quantitative Tightening, and inflation came down. Now the Fed has switched back to QE." THE FED = FLIES BLIND.

Steve Hanke

14,399 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

🚨 FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH JUST MADE IT CLEAR: THE FIGHT AGAINST INFLATION IS NOT OVER. Key points from the FOMC press conference: • The Fed held rates in a 9–3 vote after a heated internal debate. • Warsh said inflation is still too high and the 2% target is non-negotiable. • The Fed is pulling back from forward guidance and will let markets react directly to incoming data. • Treasury yields have already tightened financial conditions, even without another rate hike. • One soft CPI report will not change policy. The Fed is focused on the broader trend. • The economy and labor market remain solid, while AI investment is driving a major surge in business spending. • A hold does not mean the Fed has paused. Warsh called it “watchful thinking.” • If inflation rises while employment stays strong, the Fed will be more inclined to tighten again. The message was simple: The Fed is not declaring victory, and rate hikes are still on the table.

🚨 FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH JUST MADE IT CLEAR: THE FIGHT AGAINST INFLATION IS NOT OVER. Key points from the FOMC press conference: • The Fed held rates in a 9–3 vote after a heated internal debate. • Warsh said inflation is still too high and the 2% target is non-negotiable. • The Fed is pulling back from forward guidance and will let markets react directly to incoming data. • Treasury yields have already tightened financial conditions, even without another rate hike. • One soft CPI report will not change policy. The Fed is focused on the broader trend. • The economy and labor market remain solid, while AI investment is driving a major surge in business spending. • A hold does not mean the Fed has paused. Warsh called it “watchful thinking.” • If inflation rises while employment stays strong, the Fed will be more inclined to tighten again. The message was simple: The Fed is not declaring victory, and rate hikes are still on the table.

Crypto Rover

117,868 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

MARKETS: A weaker jobs print gave stocks and Bitcoin a boost, but Ray Salmond is watching the Fed. The Crypto Market Analyst says the data has pushed expectations for a September rate hike largely off the table.

MARKETS: A weaker jobs print gave stocks and Bitcoin a boost, but Ray Salmond is watching the Fed. The Crypto Market Analyst says the data has pushed expectations for a September rate hike largely off the table.

CoinDesk

74,579 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

New inflation data just landed, slightly too hot. Fed funds futures now put an 86% chance on a hike at the next meeting, up from 72% last night. Don't ask me what I think the Fed will do, ask the market. It's a better forecaster than any economist, myself included.

New inflation data just landed, slightly too hot. Fed funds futures now put an 86% chance on a hike at the next meeting, up from 72% last night. Don't ask me what I think the Fed will do, ask the market. It's a better forecaster than any economist, myself included.

Justin Wolfers

19,383 Aufrufe • vor 29 Tagen

Markets still price an 88% chance of a Fed cut Sept 17. Inflation was as expected (PCE 2.6%, core 2.9%), but today’s PPI came in far below forecasts (headline 2.6% vs 3.3%). Combine that with weak jobs data, and the Fed has every reason to ease. Rate cuts are coming. Why sell before the Fed hands you a rate cut?

Markets still price an 88% chance of a Fed cut Sept 17. Inflation was as expected (PCE 2.6%, core 2.9%), but today’s PPI came in far below forecasts (headline 2.6% vs 3.3%). Combine that with weak jobs data, and the Fed has every reason to ease. Rate cuts are coming. Why sell before the Fed hands you a rate cut?

VirtualBacon

69,282 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

🇺🇸Trump’s handpicked Fed Chair just raised interest rates, directly defying his demands for lower borrowing costs In a UNANIMOUS decision led by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, the Fed raised its key federal funds rate target range by a quarter point to between 3.75% and 4%. Inflation has remained above the Fed’s target for more than five years, but in recent months has crept higher… “This summer's inflation readings do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.” The increase marks the first rate adjustment under Warsh. Handpicked or not, Warsh has made it clear he’s not going to torch his own credibility just to validate Trump. Source: NBC / Writer: Bri

🇺🇸Trump’s handpicked Fed Chair just raised interest rates, directly defying his demands for lower borrowing costs In a UNANIMOUS decision led by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, the Fed raised its key federal funds rate target range by a quarter point to between 3.75% and 4%. Inflation has remained above the Fed’s target for more than five years, but in recent months has crept higher… “This summer's inflation readings do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.” The increase marks the first rate adjustment under Warsh. Handpicked or not, Warsh has made it clear he’s not going to torch his own credibility just to validate Trump. Source: NBC / Writer: Bri

Mario Nawfal

194,982 Aufrufe • vor 24 Tagen

“We are now looking for at least a couple of rate hikes by the end of the year,” says Jennifer Lee of BMO. Traders have put the likelihood of a federal rate hike at about 90% ahead of Wednesday’s decision as the Fed looks to tamp down inflation.

“We are now looking for at least a couple of rate hikes by the end of the year,” says Jennifer Lee of BMO. Traders have put the likelihood of a federal rate hike at about 90% ahead of Wednesday’s decision as the Fed looks to tamp down inflation.

Bloomberg

80,251 Aufrufe • vor 27 Tagen

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 50% of Fed officials now expect a rate hike in 2026. BITCOIN FELL MORE THAN 68% DURING THE LAST FED TIGHTENING CYCLE (2022–2023). 🤯 Prediction markets are already pricing a 62% chance of a hike by September. The consensus going into 2026 was rate cuts and easy money. Then came an energy shock. Inflation reaccelerated. Kevin Warsh vowed to crush it. More volatility ahead. More opportunity to accumulate cheap $BTC.

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 50% of Fed officials now expect a rate hike in 2026. BITCOIN FELL MORE THAN 68% DURING THE LAST FED TIGHTENING CYCLE (2022–2023). 🤯 Prediction markets are already pricing a 62% chance of a hike by September. The consensus going into 2026 was rate cuts and easy money. Then came an energy shock. Inflation reaccelerated. Kevin Warsh vowed to crush it. More volatility ahead. More opportunity to accumulate cheap $BTC.

Crypto Rover

91,537 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

“The odds-on bet is that the Fed’s next move will be a hike.” DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach says incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a difficult economic backdrop as inflation pressures continue to build. more with Maria Bartiromo 👇

“The odds-on bet is that the Fed’s next move will be a hike.” DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach says incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a difficult economic backdrop as inflation pressures continue to build. more with Maria Bartiromo 👇

SundayMorningFutures

20,065 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

🇺🇸 THE FED IS EXPECTED TO HIKE RATES And this is bad for markets. Just a few months ago, everyone was convinced rate cuts were coming. That “flippening” in expectations has completely shifted the liquidity narrative. The next FOMC meeting on June 17th is also the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Markets don’t yet have full clarity on how he will prioritize growth vs inflation. The reason for a possible hike is simple: the U.S. economy remains stronger than expected. Job growth is holding up, consumer demand is resilient, and inflation is still running above the Fed’s target. For the Fed, persistent inflation means less urgency to cut rates, and more reason to keep financial conditions tight. Higher rates make borrowing more expensive, slow spending, increase costs for businesses, and pressure stock valuations. Markets thrive on liquidity. A Fed focused on fighting inflation becomes a clear headwind for risk assets. Follow and turn on notifications to stay up to date.

🇺🇸 THE FED IS EXPECTED TO HIKE RATES And this is bad for markets. Just a few months ago, everyone was convinced rate cuts were coming. That “flippening” in expectations has completely shifted the liquidity narrative. The next FOMC meeting on June 17th is also the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Markets don’t yet have full clarity on how he will prioritize growth vs inflation. The reason for a possible hike is simple: the U.S. economy remains stronger than expected. Job growth is holding up, consumer demand is resilient, and inflation is still running above the Fed’s target. For the Fed, persistent inflation means less urgency to cut rates, and more reason to keep financial conditions tight. Higher rates make borrowing more expensive, slow spending, increase costs for businesses, and pressure stock valuations. Markets thrive on liquidity. A Fed focused on fighting inflation becomes a clear headwind for risk assets. Follow and turn on notifications to stay up to date.

CryptoGoos

42,378 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING Most traders still see this as just another routine pullback. But inflation is starting to pick up again. The Fed is becoming more hawkish. And another rate hike is back on the table. Meanwhile, $SPX is being propped up by only a handful of mega-cap names. Now those leaders are beginning to break down. We’ve seen this setup before. 2018 → almost -20% 2022 → roughly -25% If the Fed hikes again, the selloff could become much more aggressive. My target: $SPX ~7,800 → ~6,000 That’s around a 25% drop. I still wouldn’t be buying this dip yet. Watch the next move closely. I’ll post the warning before it becomes obvious.

🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING Most traders still see this as just another routine pullback. But inflation is starting to pick up again. The Fed is becoming more hawkish. And another rate hike is back on the table. Meanwhile, $SPX is being propped up by only a handful of mega-cap names. Now those leaders are beginning to break down. We’ve seen this setup before. 2018 → almost -20% 2022 → roughly -25% If the Fed hikes again, the selloff could become much more aggressive. My target: $SPX ~7,800 → ~6,000 That’s around a 25% drop. I still wouldn’t be buying this dip yet. Watch the next move closely. I’ll post the warning before it becomes obvious.

winkle.

55,463 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 U.S. inflation just posted its biggest drop in 6 years That should be bullish for stocks, bearish for the U.S. dollar and supportive for gold. 📉📈 But the market is still waiting on Fed Chair Warsh at 10AM ET Key question is whether he focuses on cooling inflation and keeps the door open to rate cuts, or warns that oil back above $80 could push inflation higher again🔥 That is why there has been limited follow-through after CPI

🚨 U.S. inflation just posted its biggest drop in 6 years That should be bullish for stocks, bearish for the U.S. dollar and supportive for gold. 📉📈 But the market is still waiting on Fed Chair Warsh at 10AM ET Key question is whether he focuses on cooling inflation and keeps the door open to rate cuts, or warns that oil back above $80 could push inflation higher again🔥 That is why there has been limited follow-through after CPI

Kathy Lien

16,552 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🇺🇸HASSETT: President Trump would accept a Fed rate hike this week and defend Kevin Warsh’s independence, even if he isn’t happy about it. But Hassett says he’d personally be wary of hiking, arguing inflation momentum has fallen to “almost nothing” over the past three months.

🇺🇸HASSETT: President Trump would accept a Fed rate hike this week and defend Kevin Warsh’s independence, even if he isn’t happy about it. But Hassett says he’d personally be wary of hiking, arguing inflation momentum has fallen to “almost nothing” over the past three months.

CryptosRus

19,046 Aufrufe • vor 27 Tagen

When asked if Fed rate cuts might signal economic weakness, Tom Lee responded: "The Fed would be cutting for the right reasons, which is as they look at the next 12 months, the tariff inflation impacts are fading, but there's risk on the job market.” Lee expects a December rate cut. But he pushes back on concerns that cuts mean economic trouble. Instead, he says the Fed is acting ahead of time. • Jobless claims are stable • The labor market is holding fine • September's jobs report showed recovery • Tariff-driven inflation pressures are fading over the next 12 months. The Fed wants to stop things from getting worse. Cutting rates would give them room to ease without bringing back price pressures. Lee points out a key fact: "real rates are tightening if they don't cut." Without action, money policy would become more tight. This could hurt economic growth.

When asked if Fed rate cuts might signal economic weakness, Tom Lee responded: "The Fed would be cutting for the right reasons, which is as they look at the next 12 months, the tariff inflation impacts are fading, but there's risk on the job market.” Lee expects a December rate cut. But he pushes back on concerns that cuts mean economic trouble. Instead, he says the Fed is acting ahead of time. • Jobless claims are stable • The labor market is holding fine • September's jobs report showed recovery • Tariff-driven inflation pressures are fading over the next 12 months. The Fed wants to stop things from getting worse. Cutting rates would give them room to ease without bringing back price pressures. Lee points out a key fact: "real rates are tightening if they don't cut." Without action, money policy would become more tight. This could hurt economic growth.

Felix Prehn 🐶

99,050 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

The Fed has never been independent. With US debt-to-GDP over 120% and interest expense exceeding government receipts, "Fed independence" would mean interest rates define US economic policy, foreign policy and defense. The Fed has never been more dependent. It’s just math.

The Fed has never been independent. With US debt-to-GDP over 120% and interest expense exceeding government receipts, "Fed independence" would mean interest rates define US economic policy, foreign policy and defense. The Fed has never been more dependent. It’s just math.

Jack Mallers

102,403 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

"We'll continue to see tight labor markets," says Citi Global Chief Economist Nathan Sheets. "Wage growth has been a bit softer but still higher than the Fed would like. That's going to continue putting upward pressure on inflation. We're likely to see that in the CPI tomorrow."

"We'll continue to see tight labor markets," says Citi Global Chief Economist Nathan Sheets. "Wage growth has been a bit softer but still higher than the Fed would like. That's going to continue putting upward pressure on inflation. We're likely to see that in the CPI tomorrow."

Squawk Box

26,715 Aufrufe • vor 3 Jahren

The Fed shouldn't hike rates in response to temporary pressures. Inflation is being driven by the AI capex boom and the war in the Middle East. With the war hopefully ending soon and the outlook improving, a rate hike would do more harm than good.

The Fed shouldn't hike rates in response to temporary pressures. Inflation is being driven by the AI capex boom and the war in the Middle East. With the war hopefully ending soon and the outlook improving, a rate hike would do more harm than good.

David Nicholas

10,483 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

A 50 basis point rate cut isn’t “a signal of any reason to panic, but I do think it's very important that the Fed and Fed Chair Powell, during the press conference, focus on a forward-looking framework,” EY economist Gregory Daco says. “Data dependency is done.” Full interview:

A 50 basis point rate cut isn’t “a signal of any reason to panic, but I do think it's very important that the Fed and Fed Chair Powell, during the press conference, focus on a forward-looking framework,” EY economist Gregory Daco says. “Data dependency is done.” Full interview:

Yahoo Finance

16,238 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren