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🇺🇸 Trump can't win, can't quit, and can't make it stop. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says what started as Operation Epic Fury has become Operation Epic Disaster, and walking away isn't really an option when the entire global economy runs through the Strait of Hormuz. "I feel...

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Mario Nawfal

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102,598 просмотров • 1 месяц назад •via X (Twitter)

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🇺🇸 The 3 most dangerous conflicts on earth are being handled by real estate developers on cell phones. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says "I feel like a hitchhiker in a Texas hailstorm. I can't run, I can't hide, and I can't make it stop." If Iran broke one presidency in 1979, it can break another one now. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸 The 3 most dangerous conflicts on earth are being handled by real estate developers on cell phones. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says "I feel like a hitchhiker in a Texas hailstorm. I can't run, I can't hide, and I can't make it stop." If Iran broke one presidency in 1979, it can break another one now. Aaron David Miller

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🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The world just changed, and most people haven't caught up yet. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the Strait of Hormuz is no longer a reliable international waterway, and Iran knows it can close it whenever it wants. "I don't think the Straits you can't count on them anymore." The only question left is who pays, and how much. Aaron David Miller
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🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The world just changed, and most people haven't caught up yet. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the Strait of Hormuz is no longer a reliable international waterway, and Iran knows it can close it whenever it wants. "I don't think the Straits you can't count on them anymore." The only question left is who pays, and how much. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The window for a deal is closing fast, and both sides know it. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says if Washington and Tehran can't trade nuclear restrictions for sanctions relief soon, no formal agreement happens at all. "This whole structure, Lebanon, the Straits, the MoU, is exceedingly fraught." Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The window for a deal is closing fast, and both sides know it. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says if Washington and Tehran can't trade nuclear restrictions for sanctions relief soon, no formal agreement happens at all. "This whole structure, Lebanon, the Straits, the MoU, is exceedingly fraught." Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 All it takes is a backpack, a crowded mall, or two coordinated gunmen, and the United States loses control of what happens next. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says walking away isn't an option, which means Washington drifts, at the mercy of events. "You open the box and you no longer are in complete, or you're no longer in control of what comes out of the box." Right now, Miller thinks Iran has the higher pain threshold. That is a dangerous place to be. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 All it takes is a backpack, a crowded mall, or two coordinated gunmen, and the United States loses control of what happens next. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says walking away isn't an option, which means Washington drifts, at the mercy of events. "You open the box and you no longer are in complete, or you're no longer in control of what comes out of the box." Right now, Miller thinks Iran has the higher pain threshold. That is a dangerous place to be. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The last agreement fell apart because it was negotiated in haste, with no direct talks and no real framework. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says doing it the same way again guarantees the same result. "You can't do these negotiations on the back of a cocktail napkin. You can't do them on a cell phone, no matter how well-intentioned the mediators may be." Both sides need a deal they can actually sell. That requires a completely different approach. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The last agreement fell apart because it was negotiated in haste, with no direct talks and no real framework. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says doing it the same way again guarantees the same result. "You can't do these negotiations on the back of a cocktail napkin. You can't do them on a cell phone, no matter how well-intentioned the mediators may be." Both sides need a deal they can actually sell. That requires a completely different approach. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The original war aims are gone. What's left is a scramble for something that looks like a win. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says a uranium enrichment moratorium would beat the JCPOA, but the verification nightmare alone could sink it. "This requires a degree of time and technical expertise that I don't think anyone in the Trump administration is seriously thinking about." Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The original war aims are gone. What's left is a scramble for something that looks like a win. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says a uranium enrichment moratorium would beat the JCPOA, but the verification nightmare alone could sink it. "This requires a degree of time and technical expertise that I don't think anyone in the Trump administration is seriously thinking about." Aaron David Miller

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3 Americans died in 48 hours. Trump has spent months promising overwhelming force if that ever happened. He's said almost nothing. That silence was the thing Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller kept circling. Either the president doesn't want to escalate... or the quiet is cover for what's already moving. Refuelers, F-15s, F-16s, F-35s flowing toward Israel. Not the coastal campaign Centcom has been running. Something much wider. Wars end, Miller said, when 3 things become true at once: both sides stop believing time is on their side, both stop believing escalation helps, and the pain becomes intolerable. Zartman called it the hurting stalemate. Washington and Tehran currently meet zero of the 3. Both think they're winning. Both think escalation is an asset. Both think they can take it. The clock isn't comforting either. Uppsala studied every interstate war since 1815, the average is 4 to 5 months. Past that, they turn into Ukraine. We've gone from near-silence since June 17th to 8 straight days of kinetic. And there's no deal to reach for. This is now a war about the strait, and Miller can't build a version where both sides leave the table feeling they won rather than got conned. He's blunt about the machinery too: Witkoff and Kushner running 3 of the hardest files on earth by phone. Then the asymmetry that decides all of it. For America this isn't existential. For the IRGC, whose entire position after the war depends on how the war ends, it is. Small powers with everything at stake outlast large ones with something at stake. Russia can't break Ukraine. Israel couldn't break Hamas or Hezbollah. Trump can't break Iran. He left me with LBJ, 1968: a hitchhiker in a Texas hailstorm. Can't run, can't hide, can't make it stop. Aaron David Miller
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🇺🇸 Washington is consumed by Iran, Hormuz, Gaza, and Hezbollah while the debt that could collapse everything goes ignored. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller argues that if Republicans lose the House, domestic legislation dies and a cornered Trump sprints toward foreign policy, the one arena with almost no guardrails. "I shudder at what the consequences of that might be." Aaron David Miller
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