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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 All it takes is a backpack, a crowded mall, or two coordinated gunmen, and the United States loses control of what happens next. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says walking away isn't an option, which means Washington drifts, at the mercy of events. "You open the... show more

Mario Nawfal

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39,714 views • 26 days ago •via X (Twitter)

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🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 3 months into this war, Iran has survived the world’s most powerful military Fmr. State Dept official Aaron David Miller: “If the war stopped tomorrow, it would constitute a strategic defeat for the United States and a win of sorts for Iran.” Iran kept its missiles largely intact… and is in no rush to negotiate. Aaron David Miller

🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 3 months into this war, Iran has survived the world’s most powerful military Fmr. State Dept official Aaron David Miller: “If the war stopped tomorrow, it would constitute a strategic defeat for the United States and a win of sorts for Iran.” Iran kept its missiles largely intact… and is in no rush to negotiate. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸 Trump can't win, can't quit, and can't make it stop. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says what started as Operation Epic Fury has become Operation Epic Disaster, and walking away isn't really an option when the entire global economy runs through the Strait of Hormuz. "I feel like a hitchhiker in a Texas hailstorm. I can't run, I can't hide, and I can't make it stop." Trump is in that box. Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸 Trump can't win, can't quit, and can't make it stop. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says what started as Operation Epic Fury has become Operation Epic Disaster, and walking away isn't really an option when the entire global economy runs through the Strait of Hormuz. "I feel like a hitchhiker in a Texas hailstorm. I can't run, I can't hide, and I can't make it stop." Trump is in that box. Aaron David Miller

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🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The world just changed, and most people haven't caught up yet. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the Strait of Hormuz is no longer a reliable international waterway, and Iran knows it can close it whenever it wants. "I don't think the Straits you can't count on them anymore." The only question left is who pays, and how much. Aaron David Miller

🚨 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The world just changed, and most people haven't caught up yet. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the Strait of Hormuz is no longer a reliable international waterway, and Iran knows it can close it whenever it wants. "I don't think the Straits you can't count on them anymore." The only question left is who pays, and how much. Aaron David Miller

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15,090 views • 2 months ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The window for a deal is closing fast, and both sides know it. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says if Washington and Tehran can't trade nuclear restrictions for sanctions relief soon, no formal agreement happens at all. "This whole structure, Lebanon, the Straits, the MoU, is exceedingly fraught." Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The window for a deal is closing fast, and both sides know it. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says if Washington and Tehran can't trade nuclear restrictions for sanctions relief soon, no formal agreement happens at all. "This whole structure, Lebanon, the Straits, the MoU, is exceedingly fraught." Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S.-Iran talks are going nowhere, and the real pain is just starting for America. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller explains why Iran has the upper hand: No elections, no public pressure. While U.S. demands quietly disappear, Iran is slowly achieving its 2 main goals. "Right now we are on a road to nowhere." Iran is winning the waiting game. Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S.-Iran talks are going nowhere, and the real pain is just starting for America. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller explains why Iran has the upper hand: No elections, no public pressure. While U.S. demands quietly disappear, Iran is slowly achieving its 2 main goals. "Right now we are on a road to nowhere." Iran is winning the waiting game. Aaron David Miller

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32,416 views • 3 months ago

🇺🇸 Netanyahu has nowhere to turn, no allies to appeal to, and an election looming that leaves him exposed. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller just laid it all out. "No American president has ever had a situation where an Israeli prime minister has no higher court of appeals." This is a different kind of pressure. Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸 Netanyahu has nowhere to turn, no allies to appeal to, and an election looming that leaves him exposed. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller just laid it all out. "No American president has ever had a situation where an Israeli prime minister has no higher court of appeals." This is a different kind of pressure. Aaron David Miller

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🇮🇷 The next strike might not hit a nuclear site. It might cut the lights and drain the water. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the war's focus has drifted somewhere deeply alarming. "It seems horrific to me to make Iran dark and thirsty." 6 months in, and no one can find the thread. Aaron David Miller

🇮🇷 The next strike might not hit a nuclear site. It might cut the lights and drain the water. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the war's focus has drifted somewhere deeply alarming. "It seems horrific to me to make Iran dark and thirsty." 6 months in, and no one can find the thread. Aaron David Miller

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72,551 views • 26 days ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 We are seeing a new reality where Israel permanently operates within the territorial space of its adversaries. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller highlights that five countries are currently in varying phases of dysfunction, allowing Turkey, Iran, and Israel to dominate the region. The dream of a functional, productive "new Middle East" is being tested by a Pandora's box of sectarian tension and state failure. Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸🇮🇷 We are seeing a new reality where Israel permanently operates within the territorial space of its adversaries. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller highlights that five countries are currently in varying phases of dysfunction, allowing Turkey, Iran, and Israel to dominate the region. The dream of a functional, productive "new Middle East" is being tested by a Pandora's box of sectarian tension and state failure. Aaron David Miller

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66,375 views • 3 months ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 There are 3 paths toward Iran, but Fmr. U.S. State Dept Aaron David Miller thinks none of them will work. -Strike Iranian infrastructure -Keep the blockade for four more months -Or force open the Strait, with American casualties and no allied support "The options that are out there don't create the kind of confidence that we're now winding this down." If oil hits $150 a barrel, we're not talking about a regional conflict anymore. Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸🇮🇷 There are 3 paths toward Iran, but Fmr. U.S. State Dept Aaron David Miller thinks none of them will work. -Strike Iranian infrastructure -Keep the blockade for four more months -Or force open the Strait, with American casualties and no allied support "The options that are out there don't create the kind of confidence that we're now winding this down." If oil hits $150 a barrel, we're not talking about a regional conflict anymore. Aaron David Miller

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31,938 views • 3 months ago

🇺🇸 Something in the skies over the Middle East does not add up. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the deployment of refueling aircraft and F-35s points to a campaign far bigger than anyone is admitting. "That suggests to me a preparation for an expanded air campaign." If he's right, the quiet response was the opening move. Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸 Something in the skies over the Middle East does not add up. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says the deployment of refueling aircraft and F-35s points to a campaign far bigger than anyone is admitting. "That suggests to me a preparation for an expanded air campaign." If he's right, the quiet response was the opening move. Aaron David Miller

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The administration is not being upfront about how badly American facilities were hit. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller lays out exactly how a full blown war starts, one miscalculation at a time. "You get an Iranian strike on Bahrain that kills 20 or 30 Americans." Now the U.S. is considering relocating those bases to Israel. Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The administration is not being upfront about how badly American facilities were hit. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller lays out exactly how a full blown war starts, one miscalculation at a time. "You get an Iranian strike on Bahrain that kills 20 or 30 Americans." Now the U.S. is considering relocating those bases to Israel. Aaron David Miller

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83,318 views • 1 month ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 THE WIN COLUMN: IS IRAN ACTUALLY AHEAD? If the war stopped today, former state department negotiator Aaron David Miller believes Tehran could claim a terrifying victory. While the U.S. has set back their nuclear and missile programs, the regime remains coherent, defiant, and in control. Iran has successfully demonstrated it can grant or deny access to the world’s most critical shipping straits. Aaron David Miller points out that all they need are drones to continue undermining global security. Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸🇮🇷 THE WIN COLUMN: IS IRAN ACTUALLY AHEAD? If the war stopped today, former state department negotiator Aaron David Miller believes Tehran could claim a terrifying victory. While the U.S. has set back their nuclear and missile programs, the regime remains coherent, defiant, and in control. Iran has successfully demonstrated it can grant or deny access to the world’s most critical shipping straits. Aaron David Miller points out that all they need are drones to continue undermining global security. Aaron David Miller

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63,102 views • 3 months ago

🇺🇸 Every side in the Middle East is furious at Trump right now, all at once, for opposite reasons. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller broke it down cold. "Saudi and Qatar are pissed. There's no peace. Israel is pissed. Trump called off today's strikes. Iran is pissed about the threats. Americans are pissed because of high gas prices and neocons are pissed because there isn't regime change." You know you messed up when everybody is pissed. Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸 Every side in the Middle East is furious at Trump right now, all at once, for opposite reasons. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller broke it down cold. "Saudi and Qatar are pissed. There's no peace. Israel is pissed. Trump called off today's strikes. Iran is pissed about the threats. Americans are pissed because of high gas prices and neocons are pissed because there isn't regime change." You know you messed up when everybody is pissed. Aaron David Miller

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43,246 views • 4 days ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The original war aims are gone. What's left is a scramble for something that looks like a win. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says a uranium enrichment moratorium would beat the JCPOA, but the verification nightmare alone could sink it. "This requires a degree of time and technical expertise that I don't think anyone in the Trump administration is seriously thinking about." Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The original war aims are gone. What's left is a scramble for something that looks like a win. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says a uranium enrichment moratorium would beat the JCPOA, but the verification nightmare alone could sink it. "This requires a degree of time and technical expertise that I don't think anyone in the Trump administration is seriously thinking about." Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

28,657 views • 2 months ago

🇺🇸 🇮🇱 All 3 pillars holding the relationship together are under more stress than ever before. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller just laid it out: "Israel has long ago ceased to become David. It is now seen by many Americans as Goliath." When the image shifts in the American mind, the relationship follows. Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸 🇮🇱 All 3 pillars holding the relationship together are under more stress than ever before. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller just laid it out: "Israel has long ago ceased to become David. It is now seen by many Americans as Goliath." When the image shifts in the American mind, the relationship follows. Aaron David Miller

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36,980 views • 1 month ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller: Trump has held back so far, but that's about to change "The response to the deaths of 2 or 3 U.S. servicemen has been very proportionate. The Institute for War is reporting that the Iranians were using a different sort of high-speed ballistic missile that gives more manoeuvrability. It's not an attack on Jordan. It's an attack on U.S. regional deployments." Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller: Trump has held back so far, but that's about to change "The response to the deaths of 2 or 3 U.S. servicemen has been very proportionate. The Institute for War is reporting that the Iranians were using a different sort of high-speed ballistic missile that gives more manoeuvrability. It's not an attack on Jordan. It's an attack on U.S. regional deployments." Aaron David Miller

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62,455 views • 18 days ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Can Trump simply "do business" with Iran to end the conflict, or is the political cost of lifting sanctions too high? Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller suggests that any deal would require satisfaction on two major fronts: no nuclear enrichment and the restoration of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Until an agreement is reached on economic relief versus security guarantees, the Iranians understand that their ability to close international waterways remains their ultimate leverage. Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Can Trump simply "do business" with Iran to end the conflict, or is the political cost of lifting sanctions too high? Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller suggests that any deal would require satisfaction on two major fronts: no nuclear enrichment and the restoration of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Until an agreement is reached on economic relief versus security guarantees, the Iranians understand that their ability to close international waterways remains their ultimate leverage. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

62,203 views • 3 months ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The objective of the Iran war is still unknown: Is it about degrading military power, or is it about a legacy-defining victory? Trump may be looking for a "regime transition" similar to his goals in Venezuela, hoping the Iranians will eventually choose a deal on his terms. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller points out that an economic blockade maintained for months could fundamentally weaken the regime but puts the global economy at massive risk. Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The objective of the Iran war is still unknown: Is it about degrading military power, or is it about a legacy-defining victory? Trump may be looking for a "regime transition" similar to his goals in Venezuela, hoping the Iranians will eventually choose a deal on his terms. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller points out that an economic blockade maintained for months could fundamentally weaken the regime but puts the global economy at massive risk. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

66,559 views • 3 months ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The last agreement fell apart because it was negotiated in haste, with no direct talks and no real framework. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says doing it the same way again guarantees the same result. "You can't do these negotiations on the back of a cocktail napkin. You can't do them on a cell phone, no matter how well-intentioned the mediators may be." Both sides need a deal they can actually sell. That requires a completely different approach. Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The last agreement fell apart because it was negotiated in haste, with no direct talks and no real framework. Fmr. State Dept Aaron David Miller says doing it the same way again guarantees the same result. "You can't do these negotiations on the back of a cocktail napkin. You can't do them on a cell phone, no matter how well-intentioned the mediators may be." Both sides need a deal they can actually sell. That requires a completely different approach. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

69,209 views • 11 days ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 We are poised between a serious pathway out of the Iran war and the grave consequences of failing to pursue it comprehensively. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller notes that while a Lebanon ceasefire is a step forward, the Iranians have imposed strict conditions on the Strait of Hormuz that Trump may not accept. If the blockade remains, we are looking at a high-stakes standoff where both sides are preparing for escalation. Aaron David Miller

🇺🇸🇮🇷 We are poised between a serious pathway out of the Iran war and the grave consequences of failing to pursue it comprehensively. Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller notes that while a Lebanon ceasefire is a step forward, the Iranians have imposed strict conditions on the Strait of Hormuz that Trump may not accept. If the blockade remains, we are looking at a high-stakes standoff where both sides are preparing for escalation. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

48,916 views • 3 months ago