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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump is demanding reparations from Iran while Tehran is increasingly concluding there is no point negotiating with him at all. And while Washington waits for Tehran to crack, the Middle East is quietly building a security order designed to rely less on America. Trump told Axios that Washington...

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Mario Nawfal

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297,253 просмотров • 18 дней назад •via X (Twitter)

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‼️🇺🇸🇮🇷 BIG | President Donald Trump says the United States is currently "low-keying it" with Iran, signaling that Washington is holding back from another major military escalation while allowing economic pressure on Tehran to build. According to Axios, Trump said the U.S. is maintaining only limited negotiations with Iran while closely watching the country's deteriorating economic situation. "We're only semi-negotiating with them. We're just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact that they have no money," Trump said. The president argued that Iran is in "very bad shape" economically and is even struggling to pay its military personnel, while the U.S. naval blockade continues to intensify financial pressure on Tehran. Trump suggested that Washington is prepared to wait rather than immediately return to large-scale military operations, calculating that mounting economic pressure could eventually force Iran toward a more favorable agreement. "It will work out. It always works out. It's like a chess game," Trump said of the confrontation with Tehran. The remarks indicate that, for now, Washington appears willing to let economic pressure do much of the work while keeping military escalation available as leverage if diplomacy fails. See the latest updates with us: Visioner
0:30

‼️🇺🇸🇮🇷 BIG | President Donald Trump says the United States is currently "low-keying it" with Iran, signaling that Washington is holding back from another major military escalation while allowing economic pressure on Tehran to build. According to Axios, Trump said the U.S. is maintaining only limited negotiations with Iran while closely watching the country's deteriorating economic situation. "We're only semi-negotiating with them. We're just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact that they have no money," Trump said. The president argued that Iran is in "very bad shape" economically and is even struggling to pay its military personnel, while the U.S. naval blockade continues to intensify financial pressure on Tehran. Trump suggested that Washington is prepared to wait rather than immediately return to large-scale military operations, calculating that mounting economic pressure could eventually force Iran toward a more favorable agreement. "It will work out. It always works out. It's like a chess game," Trump said of the confrontation with Tehran. The remarks indicate that, for now, Washington appears willing to let economic pressure do much of the work while keeping military escalation available as leverage if diplomacy fails. See the latest updates with us: Visioner

Visioner

51,776 просмотров • 19 дней назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump's immediate objective is simple: get the U.S. out of the Strait of Hormuz without allowing Iran to dictate who passes through it. The problem is that Tehran now sees Hormuz as its leverage. That may be the central problem with Washington's strategy. Economic warfare can avoid a ground invasion and nuclear escalation. But if Iran believes control of Hormuz is essential to its survival, sanctions may only convince Tehran to hold the strait tighter. The war may have moved from missiles to economics. The underlying confrontation hasn't moved an inch. Brandon Weichert
4:03

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump's immediate objective is simple: get the U.S. out of the Strait of Hormuz without allowing Iran to dictate who passes through it. The problem is that Tehran now sees Hormuz as its leverage. That may be the central problem with Washington's strategy. Economic warfare can avoid a ground invasion and nuclear escalation. But if Iran believes control of Hormuz is essential to its survival, sanctions may only convince Tehran to hold the strait tighter. The war may have moved from missiles to economics. The underlying confrontation hasn't moved an inch. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

70,863 просмотров • 8 дней назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Washington may call it economic pressure. Tehran may call it war. Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson says Iran could respond to a U.S. economic campaign the same way it would respond to a military attack, particularly if countries help enforce it. The logic is pretty straightforward: if allowing your airbases to be used against Iran makes you a target, why should allowing your banks and financial system to be used against Iran be any different? Johnson's answer is that it shouldn't. And that puts the UAE in an uncomfortable position. But Gulf states have already realised Washington is not the security guarantee it once appeared to be and are quietly repairing relations with Tehran. The fact that the UAE has avoided another round of strikes is hardly irrelevant. Then there is the bigger problem with the sanctions strategy. China is refusing to play along. Pakistan is hardly going to abandon Iranian energy to keep Washington happy. Iranian oil is increasingly being settled in yuan, outside the U.S. financial system. The irony is becoming difficult to miss. The harder Washington squeezes Iran, the more Tehran's biggest partners have an incentive to build ways around Washington. 10 years ago, Russia and China helped enforce the sanctions regime. Today, they are helping Iran survive it. Meanwhile the rial has collapsed, Iran is restricting shipping through the Strait, and Tehran has reportedly been discussed for a regional defence pact involving Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Washington is promising the most devastating sanctions yet. Johnson's response? "I'll hold my breath." SonofNewAmericanRevolution
41:31

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Washington may call it economic pressure. Tehran may call it war. Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson says Iran could respond to a U.S. economic campaign the same way it would respond to a military attack, particularly if countries help enforce it. The logic is pretty straightforward: if allowing your airbases to be used against Iran makes you a target, why should allowing your banks and financial system to be used against Iran be any different? Johnson's answer is that it shouldn't. And that puts the UAE in an uncomfortable position. But Gulf states have already realised Washington is not the security guarantee it once appeared to be and are quietly repairing relations with Tehran. The fact that the UAE has avoided another round of strikes is hardly irrelevant. Then there is the bigger problem with the sanctions strategy. China is refusing to play along. Pakistan is hardly going to abandon Iranian energy to keep Washington happy. Iranian oil is increasingly being settled in yuan, outside the U.S. financial system. The irony is becoming difficult to miss. The harder Washington squeezes Iran, the more Tehran's biggest partners have an incentive to build ways around Washington. 10 years ago, Russia and China helped enforce the sanctions regime. Today, they are helping Iran survive it. Meanwhile the rial has collapsed, Iran is restricting shipping through the Strait, and Tehran has reportedly been discussed for a regional defence pact involving Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Washington is promising the most devastating sanctions yet. Johnson's response? "I'll hold my breath." SonofNewAmericanRevolution

Mario Nawfal

308,654 просмотров • 5 дней назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump has tried military force and economic strangulation against Iran; now Tehran has concluded that pressure simply does not work Iran has taken enormous punishment. Its economy is reeling, inflation is brutal, and its military has absorbed repeated strikes. But six months into the war, the regime is still standing, and crucially, Iran can still disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. Middle East scholar Joshua Landis believes that has fundamentally changed Tehran's calculation. Washington has moved from military force to its new “Economic D-Day,” but the regional cooperation needed to make that strategy truly devastating isn't materialising. Iraq, Turkey, the UAE and Qatar still have powerful incentives to trade with Iran. Oman is negotiating with Tehran. Pakistan and Qatar are talking to the Iranians. These countries don't want another regional war or a permanently closed Persian Gulf, and Iran knows it. Joshua says Tehran increasingly believes America has already played its strongest cards, which makes surrender even less attractive. Iranian leaders now believe that if they cave to Trump's demands, America and Israel will simply return once Iran has recovered and hit it again. In Joshua's words, Iran fears becoming another Gaza, Lebanon or Syria; periodically attacked to keep it permanently weak. So Tehran has reached the opposite conclusion: It has to make resisting Iran more painful than living with it. Tehran may finally have learned the difference between America having the power to hurt it, and having the power to make it surrender. Joshua Landis Brandon Weichert
26:59

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump has tried military force and economic strangulation against Iran; now Tehran has concluded that pressure simply does not work Iran has taken enormous punishment. Its economy is reeling, inflation is brutal, and its military has absorbed repeated strikes. But six months into the war, the regime is still standing, and crucially, Iran can still disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. Middle East scholar Joshua Landis believes that has fundamentally changed Tehran's calculation. Washington has moved from military force to its new “Economic D-Day,” but the regional cooperation needed to make that strategy truly devastating isn't materialising. Iraq, Turkey, the UAE and Qatar still have powerful incentives to trade with Iran. Oman is negotiating with Tehran. Pakistan and Qatar are talking to the Iranians. These countries don't want another regional war or a permanently closed Persian Gulf, and Iran knows it. Joshua says Tehran increasingly believes America has already played its strongest cards, which makes surrender even less attractive. Iranian leaders now believe that if they cave to Trump's demands, America and Israel will simply return once Iran has recovered and hit it again. In Joshua's words, Iran fears becoming another Gaza, Lebanon or Syria; periodically attacked to keep it permanently weak. So Tehran has reached the opposite conclusion: It has to make resisting Iran more painful than living with it. Tehran may finally have learned the difference between America having the power to hurt it, and having the power to make it surrender. Joshua Landis Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

215,721 просмотров • 21 часов назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump has barely launched Operation Economic Outcast against Iran, and China is already calling his bluff. Beijing says it will not comply, and is threatening retaliation if Washington targets Chinese companies for continuing to trade with Tehran. That's a HUGE problem for Trump's strategy. Operation Economic Outcast is supposed to sever the international financial lifelines keeping Tehran alive. But Iran cannot be economically isolated if major trading partners simply refuse to participate. Washington can sanction Iran, but the real test has always been whether it is prepared to sanction the powerful countries that keep doing business with it. China has now effectively dared Trump to try. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman have announced a preliminary agreement over managing the Strait of Hormuz. Iran would control incoming maritime traffic and retain the right to impose service fees, while outbound traffic would use the Omani corridor. Crucially, Tehran says the agreement does not mean Hormuz is immediately reopening. Iran says the Strait will remain closed until the U.S naval blockade is lifted and the terms of the broader MOU are honoured. And there are signs Washington may already be moving in that direction. According to an Al Arabiya report, Pakistan's Asim Munir conveyed an American proposal to Tehran: Washington is prepared to lift the naval blockade and sanctions if Iran guarantees free passage through Hormuz and pressures the Houthis to stop attacking Saudi energy infrastructure. There is another important signal. The State Department is reportedly preparing to return diplomats to a string of Middle Eastern embassies evacuated during the war, suggesting Washington does not currently expect large-scale fighting to resume. Put all of this together, and Trump's strategy starts looking very different from the rhetoric; the direction of travel today may actually be toward a deal. Brandon Weichert
43:41

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump has barely launched Operation Economic Outcast against Iran, and China is already calling his bluff. Beijing says it will not comply, and is threatening retaliation if Washington targets Chinese companies for continuing to trade with Tehran. That's a HUGE problem for Trump's strategy. Operation Economic Outcast is supposed to sever the international financial lifelines keeping Tehran alive. But Iran cannot be economically isolated if major trading partners simply refuse to participate. Washington can sanction Iran, but the real test has always been whether it is prepared to sanction the powerful countries that keep doing business with it. China has now effectively dared Trump to try. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman have announced a preliminary agreement over managing the Strait of Hormuz. Iran would control incoming maritime traffic and retain the right to impose service fees, while outbound traffic would use the Omani corridor. Crucially, Tehran says the agreement does not mean Hormuz is immediately reopening. Iran says the Strait will remain closed until the U.S naval blockade is lifted and the terms of the broader MOU are honoured. And there are signs Washington may already be moving in that direction. According to an Al Arabiya report, Pakistan's Asim Munir conveyed an American proposal to Tehran: Washington is prepared to lift the naval blockade and sanctions if Iran guarantees free passage through Hormuz and pressures the Houthis to stop attacking Saudi energy infrastructure. There is another important signal. The State Department is reportedly preparing to return diplomats to a string of Middle Eastern embassies evacuated during the war, suggesting Washington does not currently expect large-scale fighting to resume. Put all of this together, and Trump's strategy starts looking very different from the rhetoric; the direction of travel today may actually be toward a deal. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

268,386 просмотров • 3 дней назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷⚠️ Trump hoped reopening the Strait of Hormuz would give him an opportunity to declare victory and wind down the war with Iran, even without securing a nuclear agreement. Tehran, however, has dramatically raised the price of a deal. According to The Wall Street Journal, Iran is demanding the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region, an end to the naval blockade, the lifting of sanctions, the release of frozen Iranian assets, and billions of dollars in war reparations before fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Those demands have significantly narrowed the Trump administration’s room for maneuver. Tehran reportedly believes Washington is increasingly eager to find an exit from the conflict and is therefore using its ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, and consequently a crucial portion of global oil flows, as leverage at the negotiating table. The pressure is also growing inside the United States. Gasoline prices are hovering around $4 per gallon, while the approaching midterm elections give the Trump administration a strong political incentive to stabilize energy markets and reach an agreement with Iran. The situation leaves Washington facing an increasingly difficult calculation. Accepting Tehran’s sweeping demands would represent a major concession, while renewed military escalation risks further disruption of Hormuz and another surge in global energy prices. Iran appears to understand that pressure on the Strait directly translates into economic and political pressure on Washington, and Tehran is attempting to exploit that leverage to extract concessions it could never obtain under normal circumstances.
0:26

🇺🇸🇮🇷⚠️ Trump hoped reopening the Strait of Hormuz would give him an opportunity to declare victory and wind down the war with Iran, even without securing a nuclear agreement. Tehran, however, has dramatically raised the price of a deal. According to The Wall Street Journal, Iran is demanding the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region, an end to the naval blockade, the lifting of sanctions, the release of frozen Iranian assets, and billions of dollars in war reparations before fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Those demands have significantly narrowed the Trump administration’s room for maneuver. Tehran reportedly believes Washington is increasingly eager to find an exit from the conflict and is therefore using its ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, and consequently a crucial portion of global oil flows, as leverage at the negotiating table. The pressure is also growing inside the United States. Gasoline prices are hovering around $4 per gallon, while the approaching midterm elections give the Trump administration a strong political incentive to stabilize energy markets and reach an agreement with Iran. The situation leaves Washington facing an increasingly difficult calculation. Accepting Tehran’s sweeping demands would represent a major concession, while renewed military escalation risks further disruption of Hormuz and another surge in global energy prices. Iran appears to understand that pressure on the Strait directly translates into economic and political pressure on Washington, and Tehran is attempting to exploit that leverage to extract concessions it could never obtain under normal circumstances.

NSTRIKE

19,620 просмотров • 19 дней назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump's pressure strategy against Iran may be reaching its breaking point, because Tehran's answer to more pressure is more war Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent says Washington is preparing to move from “Epic Fury” to “Economic Fury,” with unprecedented measures designed to isolate Iran and squeeze its economy even harder. There's just one problem. Tehran is signalling that the more Washington turns up the financial pressure, the more Iran is prepared to turn up the military pressure. An adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader has now warned that if Iran's demands aren't met, Tehran could shift from a defensive posture to an offensive one. Meanwhile, CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper is reportedly becoming increasingly pessimistic that renewed fighting can be avoided. So while Washington publicly talks about pressure creating the conditions for diplomacy, the military appears to be preparing for the possibility that it produces exactly the opposite. And events on the ground are already moving in that direction. Two UAE-owned tankers were attacked by drones while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with the UAE blaming Iran. The Houthis are escalating around Yemen and Saudi Arabia. And during our discussion, reports emerged of another attack targeting Saudi Aramco infrastructure. But America may be preparing for another round of fighting without having solved one of the biggest problems exposed by the last one: Weapons production. The U.S is finally fielding its Dark Eagle hypersonic missile, but the production rate is roughly one missile per month, with ambitions to increase that to two. And increasingly, America's adversaries appear to understand that the economics of warfare matter just as much as the weapons themselves. Fire cheaper weapons, force your enemy to burn expensive interceptors, drain their magazines, then use the weapons you've been saving. Trump's strategy rests on the assumption that enough pain eventually forces Tehran back to the negotiating table. Iran is betting on something very different: That enough pain forces America to decide this war simply isn't worth the price. And if neither side backs down, “Economic Fury” may not be the alternative to another war; it may be the trigger for it. Brandon Weichert
32:13

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump's pressure strategy against Iran may be reaching its breaking point, because Tehran's answer to more pressure is more war Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent says Washington is preparing to move from “Epic Fury” to “Economic Fury,” with unprecedented measures designed to isolate Iran and squeeze its economy even harder. There's just one problem. Tehran is signalling that the more Washington turns up the financial pressure, the more Iran is prepared to turn up the military pressure. An adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader has now warned that if Iran's demands aren't met, Tehran could shift from a defensive posture to an offensive one. Meanwhile, CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper is reportedly becoming increasingly pessimistic that renewed fighting can be avoided. So while Washington publicly talks about pressure creating the conditions for diplomacy, the military appears to be preparing for the possibility that it produces exactly the opposite. And events on the ground are already moving in that direction. Two UAE-owned tankers were attacked by drones while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with the UAE blaming Iran. The Houthis are escalating around Yemen and Saudi Arabia. And during our discussion, reports emerged of another attack targeting Saudi Aramco infrastructure. But America may be preparing for another round of fighting without having solved one of the biggest problems exposed by the last one: Weapons production. The U.S is finally fielding its Dark Eagle hypersonic missile, but the production rate is roughly one missile per month, with ambitions to increase that to two. And increasingly, America's adversaries appear to understand that the economics of warfare matter just as much as the weapons themselves. Fire cheaper weapons, force your enemy to burn expensive interceptors, drain their magazines, then use the weapons you've been saving. Trump's strategy rests on the assumption that enough pain eventually forces Tehran back to the negotiating table. Iran is betting on something very different: That enough pain forces America to decide this war simply isn't worth the price. And if neither side backs down, “Economic Fury” may not be the alternative to another war; it may be the trigger for it. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

293,730 просмотров • 14 дней назад

🇺🇸🇨🇳🇮🇷 Beijing's alternative payment networks aren't necessarily designed to kill the dollar. They're insurance. If Washington can threaten China with sanctions, tariffs and financial restrictions, China has an obvious incentive to build a system that makes those threats less effective. And that matters for Iran. Washington may be trying to use economic pressure to isolate Tehran, while its biggest economic partner is building ways to make that pressure harder to enforce. The irony is brutal: The more aggressively the U.S. weaponizes the financial system, the more incentive its rivals have to build a system that can operate without it. Brandon Weichert
2:39

🇺🇸🇨🇳🇮🇷 Beijing's alternative payment networks aren't necessarily designed to kill the dollar. They're insurance. If Washington can threaten China with sanctions, tariffs and financial restrictions, China has an obvious incentive to build a system that makes those threats less effective. And that matters for Iran. Washington may be trying to use economic pressure to isolate Tehran, while its biggest economic partner is building ways to make that pressure harder to enforce. The irony is brutal: The more aggressively the U.S. weaponizes the financial system, the more incentive its rivals have to build a system that can operate without it. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

64,262 просмотров • 8 дней назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump's paused the bombing and replaced it with economic warfare, but Iran's response is that Washington no longer gets to decide when the shooting starts again. In a major escalation, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi says Tehran now considers pre-emptive strikes against U.S interests a legitimate option if it believes its national survival is threatened. His argument is remarkably direct: Why should Iran always wait for America to attack first? If Tehran believes another attack is coming, or that American pressure has become existential, Gharibabadi says Iran can act first. And the timing matters. Rubio is reportedly telling regional counterparts that Washington does not currently intend to launch new strikes on Iran, with Trump's pressure instead running through the naval blockade and Operation Economic Outcast. Military action remains available if Iran attacks first. That's precisely what makes Iran's new position so dangerous. Trump appears to believe he can freeze the military conflict while slowly tightening the economic noose around Tehran. But if the sanctions begin seriously biting, or Tehran concludes Washington is preparing another attack, it could choose to strike American interests first. And after the last war, Iran is considerably less intimidated by that prospect. Then there's Trump's other problem: China. Operation Economic Outcast only works if the countries keeping Iran economically connected can be pressured into compliance. But if Beijing refuses, Trump faces an ugly choice: tolerate a huge hole in the sanctions regime or confront China and risk retaliation involving rare earth minerals that are critical to U.S weapons production. Trump may have decided the military war is paused. Iran is warning him that decision is no longer his alone. Brandon Weichert
1:00:41

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump's paused the bombing and replaced it with economic warfare, but Iran's response is that Washington no longer gets to decide when the shooting starts again. In a major escalation, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi says Tehran now considers pre-emptive strikes against U.S interests a legitimate option if it believes its national survival is threatened. His argument is remarkably direct: Why should Iran always wait for America to attack first? If Tehran believes another attack is coming, or that American pressure has become existential, Gharibabadi says Iran can act first. And the timing matters. Rubio is reportedly telling regional counterparts that Washington does not currently intend to launch new strikes on Iran, with Trump's pressure instead running through the naval blockade and Operation Economic Outcast. Military action remains available if Iran attacks first. That's precisely what makes Iran's new position so dangerous. Trump appears to believe he can freeze the military conflict while slowly tightening the economic noose around Tehran. But if the sanctions begin seriously biting, or Tehran concludes Washington is preparing another attack, it could choose to strike American interests first. And after the last war, Iran is considerably less intimidated by that prospect. Then there's Trump's other problem: China. Operation Economic Outcast only works if the countries keeping Iran economically connected can be pressured into compliance. But if Beijing refuses, Trump faces an ugly choice: tolerate a huge hole in the sanctions regime or confront China and risk retaliation involving rare earth minerals that are critical to U.S weapons production. Trump may have decided the military war is paused. Iran is warning him that decision is no longer his alone. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

314,843 просмотров • 2 дней назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 What happens when economic pressure is supposed to prevent escalation, but instead gives Iran an incentive to escalate? That is the dilemma former U.S. diplomat Aaron David Miller sees developing around Iran. Miller argues that if Trump’s sanctions begin seriously damaging Iran’s economy, Tehran may decide that if it is going to suffer anyway, it might as well make the United States pay a price too. That could mean attacks on Gulf states, energy infrastructure and American interests across the region. And the bigger problem is that neither side appears willing to accept the other's terms. Trump wants the Strait of Hormuz reopened. Iran wants a new regional order that prevents another American military campaign against it. Miller's blunt assessment: “I don't see the exit ramp.” There may still be one. Miller suggests allowing the Gulf states to negotiate their own arrangements with Tehran, including a compromise over Hormuz, rather than forcing Washington itself to make the concessions. But that would require Trump to accept something he has so far resisted: that America cannot permanently police the entire region. And there is a much bigger question hanging over all of this. If Russia cannot subdue Ukraine, and the U.S. cannot subdue Iran, what does China conclude about the limits of American power? Miller wonders whether watching these conflicts could make Xi more cautious over Taiwan, or convince him that greater powers can attack smaller ones and still fail to achieve their objectives. The Middle East may therefore be approaching a choice between a negotiated regional order and another round of escalation. And right now, nobody seems particularly sure where the exit ramp is. Aaron David Miller
30:11

🇺🇸🇮🇷 What happens when economic pressure is supposed to prevent escalation, but instead gives Iran an incentive to escalate? That is the dilemma former U.S. diplomat Aaron David Miller sees developing around Iran. Miller argues that if Trump’s sanctions begin seriously damaging Iran’s economy, Tehran may decide that if it is going to suffer anyway, it might as well make the United States pay a price too. That could mean attacks on Gulf states, energy infrastructure and American interests across the region. And the bigger problem is that neither side appears willing to accept the other's terms. Trump wants the Strait of Hormuz reopened. Iran wants a new regional order that prevents another American military campaign against it. Miller's blunt assessment: “I don't see the exit ramp.” There may still be one. Miller suggests allowing the Gulf states to negotiate their own arrangements with Tehran, including a compromise over Hormuz, rather than forcing Washington itself to make the concessions. But that would require Trump to accept something he has so far resisted: that America cannot permanently police the entire region. And there is a much bigger question hanging over all of this. If Russia cannot subdue Ukraine, and the U.S. cannot subdue Iran, what does China conclude about the limits of American power? Miller wonders whether watching these conflicts could make Xi more cautious over Taiwan, or convince him that greater powers can attack smaller ones and still fail to achieve their objectives. The Middle East may therefore be approaching a choice between a negotiated regional order and another round of escalation. And right now, nobody seems particularly sure where the exit ramp is. Aaron David Miller

Mario Nawfal

285,322 просмотров • 5 дней назад

🇮🇷🇺🇸 The Strait of Hormuz may be reopening, but not on America's terms. Reports suggest Iran and Oman are close to finalising a new arrangement for shipping through the Strait, which, at first glance, looks like a de-escalation; Professor Seyed Mohammad Marandi says it is anything but. According to him, this isn't America restoring the old order; it's adapting to a new one. Iran has made one point non-negotiable: Nothing moves through Hormuz without Tehran knowing about it. Prof. Marandi says Oman and Iran have spent weeks negotiating a framework that keeps the Strait coordinated rather than divided. Iran insisted it would never accept a system where Oman managed one side while Tehran had no oversight of the other. Instead, he says, every vessel would remain subject to Iranian coordination. And even if an agreement is signed, that doesn't mean Hormuz suddenly returns to normal. Prof. Marandi argues that Trump first has to return to the broader Memorandum of Understanding that Washington abandoned. That means more than just shipping; it means sanctions relief, releasing frozen Iranian assets, and potentially new understandings covering Yemen and Gaza as well. Only then, he says, can the Strait be fully normalised. And the kicker this time is that Prof. Marandi doesn't believe Iran will simply reopen Hormuz and trust Washington to keep its promises later. He says Tehran will want key concessions delivered first. Seyed Mohammad Marandi
57:50

🇮🇷🇺🇸 The Strait of Hormuz may be reopening, but not on America's terms. Reports suggest Iran and Oman are close to finalising a new arrangement for shipping through the Strait, which, at first glance, looks like a de-escalation; Professor Seyed Mohammad Marandi says it is anything but. According to him, this isn't America restoring the old order; it's adapting to a new one. Iran has made one point non-negotiable: Nothing moves through Hormuz without Tehran knowing about it. Prof. Marandi says Oman and Iran have spent weeks negotiating a framework that keeps the Strait coordinated rather than divided. Iran insisted it would never accept a system where Oman managed one side while Tehran had no oversight of the other. Instead, he says, every vessel would remain subject to Iranian coordination. And even if an agreement is signed, that doesn't mean Hormuz suddenly returns to normal. Prof. Marandi argues that Trump first has to return to the broader Memorandum of Understanding that Washington abandoned. That means more than just shipping; it means sanctions relief, releasing frozen Iranian assets, and potentially new understandings covering Yemen and Gaza as well. Only then, he says, can the Strait be fully normalised. And the kicker this time is that Prof. Marandi doesn't believe Iran will simply reopen Hormuz and trust Washington to keep its promises later. He says Tehran will want key concessions delivered first. Seyed Mohammad Marandi

Mario Nawfal

352,960 просмотров • 23 дней назад

🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Iran is signaling that any U.S. economic blockade would trigger a military response rather than force Tehran to back down. Middle East analyst Joshua Landis says recent Iranian strikes were designed to warn Washington that pressure on the Strait of Hormuz would not remain an economic contest. Instead, he argues, Tehran would expand the battlefield by targeting U.S. assets and regional infrastructure, turning sanctions into a wider kinetic conflict. His assessment is that Tehran is trying to convince Washington that economic warfare cannot remain separate from military escalation. Joshua Landis
3:37

🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Iran is signaling that any U.S. economic blockade would trigger a military response rather than force Tehran to back down. Middle East analyst Joshua Landis says recent Iranian strikes were designed to warn Washington that pressure on the Strait of Hormuz would not remain an economic contest. Instead, he argues, Tehran would expand the battlefield by targeting U.S. assets and regional infrastructure, turning sanctions into a wider kinetic conflict. His assessment is that Tehran is trying to convince Washington that economic warfare cannot remain separate from military escalation. Joshua Landis

Mario Nawfal

86,521 просмотров • 29 дней назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump's economic war against Iran has officially begun. He's launched what Treasury Sec. Bessent describes as an unprecedented campaign to sever every financial lifeline keeping Tehran alive. Washington says it will go after the banks, oil traders, shipping companies, crypto networks and foreign entities helping Iran circumvent American pressure. But one question exposes just how enormous this could become: What about China? Iran can only be economically isolated if the countries still doing business with it cooperate. If they don't, America's secondary sanctions eventually have to reach them too. Enforce Operation Economic Outcast too selectively, and Iran keeps finding routes around it. Enforce it ruthlessly enough to genuinely isolate Tehran and Washington risks a much larger confrontation with the countries, banks and businesses refusing to comply. For all the extraordinary rhetoric, though, this also represents a significant movement down the escalation ladder. Weeks ago, Trump was threatening Iran with annihilation, and people were discussing ground troops and even nuclear escalation. Now Washington's principal weapon is the Treasury; the war has moved from bombs to banks. That's unquestionably preferable to Americans and Iranians killing each other, but it also suggests Washington is searching for another way to extract concessions it couldn't force militarily. Iran's negotiating position remains extremely ambitious: control over Hormuz, substantial shipping fees, reparations and the removal of American bases from the region. The precise details remain uncertain, but Washington clearly isn't prepared to accept the position as it currently understands it. So Trump needs leverage, and Operation Economic Outcast is designed to create it. The problem is that sanctions take time. Banks and companies adapt, trade gets rerouted, and new payment mechanisms emerge. Meanwhile, Washington wants Hormuz normalised, and energy markets stabilised quickly. And Iran is already signalling that it won't simply absorb unlimited pressure without responding. That creates the risk of a new escalation cycle: America squeezes Iran, they refuse to concede, Washington targets the countries keeping Tehran afloat, and Iran increases the cost for countries helping Washington. The bombs may have stopped falling, but Trump has replaced the military war with an economic gamble that could reach far beyond Iran. Brandon Weichert
49:12

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump's economic war against Iran has officially begun. He's launched what Treasury Sec. Bessent describes as an unprecedented campaign to sever every financial lifeline keeping Tehran alive. Washington says it will go after the banks, oil traders, shipping companies, crypto networks and foreign entities helping Iran circumvent American pressure. But one question exposes just how enormous this could become: What about China? Iran can only be economically isolated if the countries still doing business with it cooperate. If they don't, America's secondary sanctions eventually have to reach them too. Enforce Operation Economic Outcast too selectively, and Iran keeps finding routes around it. Enforce it ruthlessly enough to genuinely isolate Tehran and Washington risks a much larger confrontation with the countries, banks and businesses refusing to comply. For all the extraordinary rhetoric, though, this also represents a significant movement down the escalation ladder. Weeks ago, Trump was threatening Iran with annihilation, and people were discussing ground troops and even nuclear escalation. Now Washington's principal weapon is the Treasury; the war has moved from bombs to banks. That's unquestionably preferable to Americans and Iranians killing each other, but it also suggests Washington is searching for another way to extract concessions it couldn't force militarily. Iran's negotiating position remains extremely ambitious: control over Hormuz, substantial shipping fees, reparations and the removal of American bases from the region. The precise details remain uncertain, but Washington clearly isn't prepared to accept the position as it currently understands it. So Trump needs leverage, and Operation Economic Outcast is designed to create it. The problem is that sanctions take time. Banks and companies adapt, trade gets rerouted, and new payment mechanisms emerge. Meanwhile, Washington wants Hormuz normalised, and energy markets stabilised quickly. And Iran is already signalling that it won't simply absorb unlimited pressure without responding. That creates the risk of a new escalation cycle: America squeezes Iran, they refuse to concede, Washington targets the countries keeping Tehran afloat, and Iran increases the cost for countries helping Washington. The bombs may have stopped falling, but Trump has replaced the military war with an economic gamble that could reach far beyond Iran. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

260,949 просмотров • 4 дней назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️ Donald Trump is changing course on Iran, ordering his senior representatives to halt negotiations with Tehran as Washington prepares to replace stop-and-start diplomacy with a longer campaign of sustained economic and military pressure. According to CNN, the administration is simultaneously moving away from the idea of immediately launching another massive wave of strikes. Instead, Trump wants to gradually “strangle” Iran through economic isolation and sustained military pressure, steadily increasing the cost for Tehran while denying it the relief it seeks. The objective is to weaken Iran’s position over time until its leadership becomes more willing to accept Washington’s conditions. CNN had previously reported that the administration was preparing a broader “economic isolation” strategy against Iran. This represents a shift in method rather than a reduction in pressure. Washington appears to be betting that Iran can be forced into concessions without immediately committing the U.S. to another expensive round of large-scale warfare. The strategy gives Trump room to preserve military escalation as a later option while sanctions, the blockade and economic pressure steadily erode Tehran’s ability to sustain the confrontation. The crucial question is whether Iran bends first, or decides that renewed escalation is preferable to being slowly squeezed. See the latest updates with us: Visioner
0:21

🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️ Donald Trump is changing course on Iran, ordering his senior representatives to halt negotiations with Tehran as Washington prepares to replace stop-and-start diplomacy with a longer campaign of sustained economic and military pressure. According to CNN, the administration is simultaneously moving away from the idea of immediately launching another massive wave of strikes. Instead, Trump wants to gradually “strangle” Iran through economic isolation and sustained military pressure, steadily increasing the cost for Tehran while denying it the relief it seeks. The objective is to weaken Iran’s position over time until its leadership becomes more willing to accept Washington’s conditions. CNN had previously reported that the administration was preparing a broader “economic isolation” strategy against Iran. This represents a shift in method rather than a reduction in pressure. Washington appears to be betting that Iran can be forced into concessions without immediately committing the U.S. to another expensive round of large-scale warfare. The strategy gives Trump room to preserve military escalation as a later option while sanctions, the blockade and economic pressure steadily erode Tehran’s ability to sustain the confrontation. The crucial question is whether Iran bends first, or decides that renewed escalation is preferable to being slowly squeezed. See the latest updates with us: Visioner

Visioner

13,610 просмотров • 10 дней назад

My interview CNN International with Rosemary Church: A. With all due respect to the emerging Iran-Oman agreement, the key question is not what Tehran and Muscat agree on. The real question is whether the Trump administration is prepared to accept the arrangement. B. The Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to fully reopen unless Washington accepts a framework that gives Iran at least some role, and therefore some degree of leverage, over what happens in the Strait. That may be uncomfortable for the United States, but it is increasingly the strategic reality it has to confront. C. If Washington rejects the emerging arrangement, the risk of escalation will rise significantly. Iranian officials have made clear that Tehran will not indefinitely accept a situation in which other Gulf producers continue exporting oil while Iranian exports remain constrained. Iran may be under considerable economic pressure, but that does not mean it will simply absorb that pressure without responding. D. Oil prices are currently benefiting in part from American signals that Washington does not want to return to a major military confrontation. But avoiding war is not a unilateral decision. It takes two sides to prevent escalation. If the United States rejects the diplomatic framework being developed by Oman and Iran, Washington could still find itself drawn back into a confrontation it clearly prefers to avoid. E. That is also why the recent regional diplomatic activity matters, including the visits by Pakistan's military leadership and the Qatari prime minister. Regional actors understand how unstable the current situation is and are trying to bridge the gap between Washington and Tehran before the escalation cycle resumes. F. On the nuclear issue, Iran is using the return of international inspectors as leverage against both Washington and Israel. For that reason, I would be very surprised to see meaningful IAEA access restored before Tehran receives significant sanctions relief from the United States. G. Until then, the United States and Israel will have to rely heavily on their own intelligence capabilities to understand what is happening at Iran's nuclear sites. And that matters because there are indications of activity at some of these locations, including developments around the so-called Pickaxe Mountain site. The longer inspectors remain outside Iran, the greater the uncertainty surrounding the actual status and direction of the Iranian nuclear program. #IranWar‌
6:22

My interview CNN International with Rosemary Church: A. With all due respect to the emerging Iran-Oman agreement, the key question is not what Tehran and Muscat agree on. The real question is whether the Trump administration is prepared to accept the arrangement. B. The Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to fully reopen unless Washington accepts a framework that gives Iran at least some role, and therefore some degree of leverage, over what happens in the Strait. That may be uncomfortable for the United States, but it is increasingly the strategic reality it has to confront. C. If Washington rejects the emerging arrangement, the risk of escalation will rise significantly. Iranian officials have made clear that Tehran will not indefinitely accept a situation in which other Gulf producers continue exporting oil while Iranian exports remain constrained. Iran may be under considerable economic pressure, but that does not mean it will simply absorb that pressure without responding. D. Oil prices are currently benefiting in part from American signals that Washington does not want to return to a major military confrontation. But avoiding war is not a unilateral decision. It takes two sides to prevent escalation. If the United States rejects the diplomatic framework being developed by Oman and Iran, Washington could still find itself drawn back into a confrontation it clearly prefers to avoid. E. That is also why the recent regional diplomatic activity matters, including the visits by Pakistan's military leadership and the Qatari prime minister. Regional actors understand how unstable the current situation is and are trying to bridge the gap between Washington and Tehran before the escalation cycle resumes. F. On the nuclear issue, Iran is using the return of international inspectors as leverage against both Washington and Israel. For that reason, I would be very surprised to see meaningful IAEA access restored before Tehran receives significant sanctions relief from the United States. G. Until then, the United States and Israel will have to rely heavily on their own intelligence capabilities to understand what is happening at Iran's nuclear sites. And that matters because there are indications of activity at some of these locations, including developments around the so-called Pickaxe Mountain site. The longer inspectors remain outside Iran, the greater the uncertainty surrounding the actual status and direction of the Iranian nuclear program. #IranWar‌

Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش

14,046 просмотров • 1 день назад

Iran is demanding an end to regional hostilities and compensation for damages before fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz, warning that talks over a temporary route don’t guarantee it will stay open. The U.S. blockade remains in place as Washington ramps up diplomatic, economic, and military pressure, though President Trump has suggested he could declare victory and move on if Iran fully reopens the strait, even without a nuclear deal. Vice President JD Vance says negotiations are still “in the middle of the game,” as U.S. and Israeli officials point to growing economic pressure on Tehran. Trey Yingst reports on the Middle East live from the region.
2:12

Iran is demanding an end to regional hostilities and compensation for damages before fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz, warning that talks over a temporary route don’t guarantee it will stay open. The U.S. blockade remains in place as Washington ramps up diplomatic, economic, and military pressure, though President Trump has suggested he could declare victory and move on if Iran fully reopens the strait, even without a nuclear deal. Vice President JD Vance says negotiations are still “in the middle of the game,” as U.S. and Israeli officials point to growing economic pressure on Tehran. Trey Yingst reports on the Middle East live from the region.

Fox News

555,884 просмотров • 19 дней назад

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The biggest mistake Washington may be making is assuming Iran is running out of options. According to Prof. Robert Pape, Tehran believes it has already solved the central military problem of this war. Not because it can defeat America, but because it believes the U.S can't achieve its objective. Trump's goal is simple: reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore normal shipping. The only problem is that Iran can launch drones capable of striking ships from an area larger than California. Much of it is mountainous, filled with tunnels, valleys and concealed launch sites. It's like trying to find someone in an area equivalent to 11,000 Manhattans. Iran doesn't need thousands of drones to survive; it only needs enough to keep attacking ships. That's why Prof. Pape believes Trump can't simply bomb his way to reopening Hormuz before the midterms, and probably not even before January. And he says Tehran knows it, which changes everything. If Iran believes Washington has no realistic military solution, why would it rush into negotiations? Instead, political scientist Prof. Pape believes Tehran will try to maximise its leverage by keeping pressure on global shipping, energy markets, and the U.S economy. His warning is that Iran is no longer simply trying to survive; it's trying to convince every future American president that attacking them carries an unacceptable economic and political price. Robert A. Pape
45:43

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The biggest mistake Washington may be making is assuming Iran is running out of options. According to Prof. Robert Pape, Tehran believes it has already solved the central military problem of this war. Not because it can defeat America, but because it believes the U.S can't achieve its objective. Trump's goal is simple: reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore normal shipping. The only problem is that Iran can launch drones capable of striking ships from an area larger than California. Much of it is mountainous, filled with tunnels, valleys and concealed launch sites. It's like trying to find someone in an area equivalent to 11,000 Manhattans. Iran doesn't need thousands of drones to survive; it only needs enough to keep attacking ships. That's why Prof. Pape believes Trump can't simply bomb his way to reopening Hormuz before the midterms, and probably not even before January. And he says Tehran knows it, which changes everything. If Iran believes Washington has no realistic military solution, why would it rush into negotiations? Instead, political scientist Prof. Pape believes Tehran will try to maximise its leverage by keeping pressure on global shipping, energy markets, and the U.S economy. His warning is that Iran is no longer simply trying to survive; it's trying to convince every future American president that attacking them carries an unacceptable economic and political price. Robert A. Pape

Mario Nawfal

306,593 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

The US may only be able to sustain its aggression for about another month — but the most dangerous part for Washington is that Iran knows it. Tehran understands the weapons math, the Strait of Hormuz, the pressure on gas prices — all of it. For Iran, this is existential. For Trump, it’s political. The clock is ticking on America’s arsenal — and Iran, along with the rest of the world, is waiting for the alarm to ring. Watch LIVE on BitChute at 5:30 Moscow time (2:30 GMT):
1:35

The US may only be able to sustain its aggression for about another month — but the most dangerous part for Washington is that Iran knows it. Tehran understands the weapons math, the Strait of Hormuz, the pressure on gas prices — all of it. For Iran, this is existential. For Trump, it’s political. The clock is ticking on America’s arsenal — and Iran, along with the rest of the world, is waiting for the alarm to ring. Watch LIVE on BitChute at 5:30 Moscow time (2:30 GMT):

Rick Sanchez

18,654 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

The biggest battle in the Middle East isn't Israel vs Iran anymore; it's Trump vs Netanyahu Former Israeli PM Ehud Olmert thinks their relationship isn’t just under strain; it may be breaking because the U.S. and Israel no longer want the same thing. Trump wants the Iran war over; he wants Hormuz open, oil prices down, markets calm, and America out of another Middle East disaster before it consumes his presidency. Netanyahu doesn’t have that luxury. Ehud argues Netanyahu still sees Iran as unfinished business, has his own political needs, and is leading a coalition packed with hardliners who believe the answer to every problem is more force, more escalation, and more war. He even believes Trump may have created the nuclear problem he now claims to be solving. According to Ehud, when Trump tore up Obama’s Iran deal, Israel hadn't found evidence that Iran was violating it. Without the deal in place, Iran accelerated enrichment, and the crisis escalated. After bombing them, the region nearly blew wide open, and now Washington is back trying to negotiate another deal with Tehran. Only this time, Iran is stronger, the price is higher, and the stakes are worse. Olmert’s warning is simple: military power can buy time, but it cannot replace a political strategy. That applies to Iran, Lebanon, Gaza, and Israel’s future relationship with America. Because if Trump wants the war to end while Netanyahu’s coalition still wants escalation, then the question is whether they are still fighting for the same future. And if they are not, this may be the beginning of the biggest U.S-Israel rupture in decades.
39:33

The biggest battle in the Middle East isn't Israel vs Iran anymore; it's Trump vs Netanyahu Former Israeli PM Ehud Olmert thinks their relationship isn’t just under strain; it may be breaking because the U.S. and Israel no longer want the same thing. Trump wants the Iran war over; he wants Hormuz open, oil prices down, markets calm, and America out of another Middle East disaster before it consumes his presidency. Netanyahu doesn’t have that luxury. Ehud argues Netanyahu still sees Iran as unfinished business, has his own political needs, and is leading a coalition packed with hardliners who believe the answer to every problem is more force, more escalation, and more war. He even believes Trump may have created the nuclear problem he now claims to be solving. According to Ehud, when Trump tore up Obama’s Iran deal, Israel hadn't found evidence that Iran was violating it. Without the deal in place, Iran accelerated enrichment, and the crisis escalated. After bombing them, the region nearly blew wide open, and now Washington is back trying to negotiate another deal with Tehran. Only this time, Iran is stronger, the price is higher, and the stakes are worse. Olmert’s warning is simple: military power can buy time, but it cannot replace a political strategy. That applies to Iran, Lebanon, Gaza, and Israel’s future relationship with America. Because if Trump wants the war to end while Netanyahu’s coalition still wants escalation, then the question is whether they are still fighting for the same future. And if they are not, this may be the beginning of the biggest U.S-Israel rupture in decades.

Mario Nawfal

679,989 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Trump said Israel wasn't going to strike Iran. Israel struck Iran anyway. Was Trump lying, or has Netanyahu made it clear that even the President of the United States doesn't get the final say? For all the talk of Iran being weakened, it is Israel and Washington that increasingly look stupid and unable to dictate events. Tehran has emerged with greater power and leverage than before the war, and now Trump appears eager for a deal that Israel seems determined to sabotage.
2:45

Trump said Israel wasn't going to strike Iran. Israel struck Iran anyway. Was Trump lying, or has Netanyahu made it clear that even the President of the United States doesn't get the final say? For all the talk of Iran being weakened, it is Israel and Washington that increasingly look stupid and unable to dictate events. Tehran has emerged with greater power and leverage than before the war, and now Trump appears eager for a deal that Israel seems determined to sabotage.

Bushra Shaikh

16,707 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад