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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump's pressure strategy against Iran may be reaching its breaking point, because Tehran's answer to more pressure is more war Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent says Washington is preparing to move from “Epic Fury” to “Economic Fury,” with unprecedented measures designed to isolate Iran and squeeze its economy even... harder. There's just one problem. Tehran is signalling that the more Washington turns up the financial pressure, the more Iran is prepared to turn up the military pressure. An adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader has now warned that if Iran's demands aren't met, Tehran could shift from a defensive posture to an offensive one. Meanwhile, CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper is reportedly becoming increasingly pessimistic that renewed fighting can be avoided. So while Washington publicly talks about pressure creating the conditions for diplomacy, the military appears to be preparing for the possibility that it produces exactly the opposite. And events on the ground are already moving in that direction. Two UAE-owned tankers were attacked by drones while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with the UAE blaming Iran. The Houthis are escalating around Yemen and Saudi Arabia. And during our discussion, reports emerged of another attack targeting Saudi Aramco infrastructure. But America may be preparing for another round of fighting without having solved one of the biggest problems exposed by the last one: Weapons production. The U.S is finally fielding its Dark Eagle hypersonic missile, but the production rate is roughly one missile per month, with ambitions to increase that to two. And increasingly, America's adversaries appear to understand that the economics of warfare matter just as much as the weapons themselves. Fire cheaper weapons, force your enemy to burn expensive interceptors, drain their magazines, then use the weapons you've been saving. Trump's strategy rests on the assumption that enough pain eventually forces Tehran back to the negotiating table. Iran is betting on something very different: That enough pain forces America to decide this war simply isn't worth the price. And if neither side backs down, “Economic Fury” may not be the alternative to another war; it may be the trigger for it. Brandon Weichertshow more

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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran's latest attack struck U.S military facilities in Kuwait and the UAE, but the timing may be more important than the attack itself. The previous U.S-Iran exchange had effectively stopped. Washington decided not to retaliate against Iran's last barrage and reports suggest Trump’s team is actively trying to avoid another major escalation before the midterms. Iran attacked again anyway. And to understand why, look at what Washington is doing behind the scenes. The U.S is intensifying its economic campaign against Tehran, reportedly instructing embassies around the world to pressure governments to cut Iranian trade, with countries, companies and individuals potentially threatened with sanctions or a loss of access to the dollar system. Meanwhile, the UAE has become an important partner in Washington's attempt to keep oil moving through Hormuz and tighten the economic screws on Iran. Then Iran hits U.S-linked military infrastructure in the UAE and Kuwait. That makes these strikes look less like retaliation for something America already did and more like a warning about what comes next: If Washington turns the Gulf into the infrastructure for an economic war against Iran, Tehran may turn that same infrastructure into the battlefield. And that creates a serious problem for Trump's apparent pivot from military war to economic war. Sanctions were supposed to provide a way of squeezing Iran without another major exchange of missiles. Iran may be signalling that it doesn't intend to let America separate the two. Brandon Weichert

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran's latest attack struck U.S military facilities in Kuwait and the UAE, but the timing may be more important than the attack itself. The previous U.S-Iran exchange had effectively stopped. Washington decided not to retaliate against Iran's last barrage and reports suggest Trump’s team is actively trying to avoid another major escalation before the midterms. Iran attacked again anyway. And to understand why, look at what Washington is doing behind the scenes. The U.S is intensifying its economic campaign against Tehran, reportedly instructing embassies around the world to pressure governments to cut Iranian trade, with countries, companies and individuals potentially threatened with sanctions or a loss of access to the dollar system. Meanwhile, the UAE has become an important partner in Washington's attempt to keep oil moving through Hormuz and tighten the economic screws on Iran. Then Iran hits U.S-linked military infrastructure in the UAE and Kuwait. That makes these strikes look less like retaliation for something America already did and more like a warning about what comes next: If Washington turns the Gulf into the infrastructure for an economic war against Iran, Tehran may turn that same infrastructure into the battlefield. And that creates a serious problem for Trump's apparent pivot from military war to economic war. Sanctions were supposed to provide a way of squeezing Iran without another major exchange of missiles. Iran may be signalling that it doesn't intend to let America separate the two. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

340,144 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🇺🇸❌🇮🇷 Trump is preparing to tighten the economic noose around an already battered Iran, betting that unprecedented financial pressure can force Tehran into a deal without immediately returning to large-scale military strikes. According to Bloomberg, the Trump administration is preparing “unprecedented economic measures” against Iran, with the goal of forcing Tehran toward an agreement before the November midterm elections. The move suggests that, for now, Trump prefers economic pressure and diplomacy over renewed strikes, despite calls from parts of the U.S. military leadership for a tougher military approach. Washington’s strategy now appears to be straightforward: use Iran’s weakened post-war economy as the battlefield and sanctions as the weapon. Tehran may have survived the military campaign, but if the U.S. can further restrict its oil revenues, financial access and ability to rebuild, Trump could try to achieve through economic strangulation what another costly round of warfare might not guarantee. See the latest updates with us: Visioner

🇺🇸❌🇮🇷 Trump is preparing to tighten the economic noose around an already battered Iran, betting that unprecedented financial pressure can force Tehran into a deal without immediately returning to large-scale military strikes. According to Bloomberg, the Trump administration is preparing “unprecedented economic measures” against Iran, with the goal of forcing Tehran toward an agreement before the November midterm elections. The move suggests that, for now, Trump prefers economic pressure and diplomacy over renewed strikes, despite calls from parts of the U.S. military leadership for a tougher military approach. Washington’s strategy now appears to be straightforward: use Iran’s weakened post-war economy as the battlefield and sanctions as the weapon. Tehran may have survived the military campaign, but if the U.S. can further restrict its oil revenues, financial access and ability to rebuild, Trump could try to achieve through economic strangulation what another costly round of warfare might not guarantee. See the latest updates with us: Visioner

Visioner

18,048 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran doesn't believe the war is over. According to Prof. Foad Izadi, the Iranian military is using the current lull to prepare for renewed confrontation with the United States, potentially for the remainder of Trump's presidency. Politically, Tehran is still entertaining diplomacy. Militarily, it's preparing for the next round. Izadi argues that Trump's economic pressure won't change that calculation. Iran's economy was already struggling before the war and is worse now. Power plants and infrastructure have been damaged, electricity shortages hurt industrial production, and sanctions are adding further pressure. But he argues that economic pain is not translating into political capitulation. Instead, the war has strengthened Iranian nationalism and hardened public attitudes against Washington and Israel. That doesn't mean Tehran wants another war. Izadi believes Iran is unlikely to strike first as long as the government can keep the economy functioning. But there is another potential trigger: Lebanon. Iran and Hezbollah have effectively established Beirut as the red line. Hezbollah continues fighting Israel while Iran stays out directly, but Izadi says an Israeli strike on Beirut would bring Iran into the conflict. So Tehran's strategy appears to be patience. Keep the economy alive. Avoid firing first. Prepare for another American attack. And wait for the political clock in Washington and Israel to move. The problem is that everyone is waiting while preparing for war. And eventually, someone may decide they're tired of waiting. فواد ایزدی Foad Izadi

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran doesn't believe the war is over. According to Prof. Foad Izadi, the Iranian military is using the current lull to prepare for renewed confrontation with the United States, potentially for the remainder of Trump's presidency. Politically, Tehran is still entertaining diplomacy. Militarily, it's preparing for the next round. Izadi argues that Trump's economic pressure won't change that calculation. Iran's economy was already struggling before the war and is worse now. Power plants and infrastructure have been damaged, electricity shortages hurt industrial production, and sanctions are adding further pressure. But he argues that economic pain is not translating into political capitulation. Instead, the war has strengthened Iranian nationalism and hardened public attitudes against Washington and Israel. That doesn't mean Tehran wants another war. Izadi believes Iran is unlikely to strike first as long as the government can keep the economy functioning. But there is another potential trigger: Lebanon. Iran and Hezbollah have effectively established Beirut as the red line. Hezbollah continues fighting Israel while Iran stays out directly, but Izadi says an Israeli strike on Beirut would bring Iran into the conflict. So Tehran's strategy appears to be patience. Keep the economy alive. Avoid firing first. Prepare for another American attack. And wait for the political clock in Washington and Israel to move. The problem is that everyone is waiting while preparing for war. And eventually, someone may decide they're tired of waiting. فواد ایزدی Foad Izadi

Mario Nawfal

288,368 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump's immediate objective is simple: get the U.S. out of the Strait of Hormuz without allowing Iran to dictate who passes through it. The problem is that Tehran now sees Hormuz as its leverage. That may be the central problem with Washington's strategy. Economic warfare can avoid a ground invasion and nuclear escalation. But if Iran believes control of Hormuz is essential to its survival, sanctions may only convince Tehran to hold the strait tighter. The war may have moved from missiles to economics. The underlying confrontation hasn't moved an inch. Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump's immediate objective is simple: get the U.S. out of the Strait of Hormuz without allowing Iran to dictate who passes through it. The problem is that Tehran now sees Hormuz as its leverage. That may be the central problem with Washington's strategy. Economic warfare can avoid a ground invasion and nuclear escalation. But if Iran believes control of Hormuz is essential to its survival, sanctions may only convince Tehran to hold the strait tighter. The war may have moved from missiles to economics. The underlying confrontation hasn't moved an inch. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

70,863 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🇺🇸🇨🇳🇮🇷 Beijing's alternative payment networks aren't necessarily designed to kill the dollar. They're insurance. If Washington can threaten China with sanctions, tariffs and financial restrictions, China has an obvious incentive to build a system that makes those threats less effective. And that matters for Iran. Washington may be trying to use economic pressure to isolate Tehran, while its biggest economic partner is building ways to make that pressure harder to enforce. The irony is brutal: The more aggressively the U.S. weaponizes the financial system, the more incentive its rivals have to build a system that can operate without it. Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇨🇳🇮🇷 Beijing's alternative payment networks aren't necessarily designed to kill the dollar. They're insurance. If Washington can threaten China with sanctions, tariffs and financial restrictions, China has an obvious incentive to build a system that makes those threats less effective. And that matters for Iran. Washington may be trying to use economic pressure to isolate Tehran, while its biggest economic partner is building ways to make that pressure harder to enforce. The irony is brutal: The more aggressively the U.S. weaponizes the financial system, the more incentive its rivals have to build a system that can operate without it. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Washington may call it economic pressure. Tehran may call it war. Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson says Iran could respond to a U.S. economic campaign the same way it would respond to a military attack, particularly if countries help enforce it. The logic is pretty straightforward: if allowing your airbases to be used against Iran makes you a target, why should allowing your banks and financial system to be used against Iran be any different? Johnson's answer is that it shouldn't. And that puts the UAE in an uncomfortable position. But Gulf states have already realised Washington is not the security guarantee it once appeared to be and are quietly repairing relations with Tehran. The fact that the UAE has avoided another round of strikes is hardly irrelevant. Then there is the bigger problem with the sanctions strategy. China is refusing to play along. Pakistan is hardly going to abandon Iranian energy to keep Washington happy. Iranian oil is increasingly being settled in yuan, outside the U.S. financial system. The irony is becoming difficult to miss. The harder Washington squeezes Iran, the more Tehran's biggest partners have an incentive to build ways around Washington. 10 years ago, Russia and China helped enforce the sanctions regime. Today, they are helping Iran survive it. Meanwhile the rial has collapsed, Iran is restricting shipping through the Strait, and Tehran has reportedly been discussed for a regional defence pact involving Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Washington is promising the most devastating sanctions yet. Johnson's response? "I'll hold my breath." SonofNewAmericanRevolution

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Washington may call it economic pressure. Tehran may call it war. Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson says Iran could respond to a U.S. economic campaign the same way it would respond to a military attack, particularly if countries help enforce it. The logic is pretty straightforward: if allowing your airbases to be used against Iran makes you a target, why should allowing your banks and financial system to be used against Iran be any different? Johnson's answer is that it shouldn't. And that puts the UAE in an uncomfortable position. But Gulf states have already realised Washington is not the security guarantee it once appeared to be and are quietly repairing relations with Tehran. The fact that the UAE has avoided another round of strikes is hardly irrelevant. Then there is the bigger problem with the sanctions strategy. China is refusing to play along. Pakistan is hardly going to abandon Iranian energy to keep Washington happy. Iranian oil is increasingly being settled in yuan, outside the U.S. financial system. The irony is becoming difficult to miss. The harder Washington squeezes Iran, the more Tehran's biggest partners have an incentive to build ways around Washington. 10 years ago, Russia and China helped enforce the sanctions regime. Today, they are helping Iran survive it. Meanwhile the rial has collapsed, Iran is restricting shipping through the Strait, and Tehran has reportedly been discussed for a regional defence pact involving Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Washington is promising the most devastating sanctions yet. Johnson's response? "I'll hold my breath." SonofNewAmericanRevolution

Mario Nawfal

310,764 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️ Donald Trump is changing course on Iran, ordering his senior representatives to halt negotiations with Tehran as Washington prepares to replace stop-and-start diplomacy with a longer campaign of sustained economic and military pressure. According to CNN, the administration is simultaneously moving away from the idea of immediately launching another massive wave of strikes. Instead, Trump wants to gradually “strangle” Iran through economic isolation and sustained military pressure, steadily increasing the cost for Tehran while denying it the relief it seeks. The objective is to weaken Iran’s position over time until its leadership becomes more willing to accept Washington’s conditions. CNN had previously reported that the administration was preparing a broader “economic isolation” strategy against Iran. This represents a shift in method rather than a reduction in pressure. Washington appears to be betting that Iran can be forced into concessions without immediately committing the U.S. to another expensive round of large-scale warfare. The strategy gives Trump room to preserve military escalation as a later option while sanctions, the blockade and economic pressure steadily erode Tehran’s ability to sustain the confrontation. The crucial question is whether Iran bends first, or decides that renewed escalation is preferable to being slowly squeezed. See the latest updates with us: Visioner

🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡️ Donald Trump is changing course on Iran, ordering his senior representatives to halt negotiations with Tehran as Washington prepares to replace stop-and-start diplomacy with a longer campaign of sustained economic and military pressure. According to CNN, the administration is simultaneously moving away from the idea of immediately launching another massive wave of strikes. Instead, Trump wants to gradually “strangle” Iran through economic isolation and sustained military pressure, steadily increasing the cost for Tehran while denying it the relief it seeks. The objective is to weaken Iran’s position over time until its leadership becomes more willing to accept Washington’s conditions. CNN had previously reported that the administration was preparing a broader “economic isolation” strategy against Iran. This represents a shift in method rather than a reduction in pressure. Washington appears to be betting that Iran can be forced into concessions without immediately committing the U.S. to another expensive round of large-scale warfare. The strategy gives Trump room to preserve military escalation as a later option while sanctions, the blockade and economic pressure steadily erode Tehran’s ability to sustain the confrontation. The crucial question is whether Iran bends first, or decides that renewed escalation is preferable to being slowly squeezed. See the latest updates with us: Visioner

Visioner

13,610 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🇮🇷 Iran thinks another war is coming, and this time the entire region could be pulled in Prof. Mohammad Marandi’s argument is that the relative calm in the Strait of Hormuz should not be mistaken for Iranian weakness or a return to normal. Iran is deliberately allowing more traffic through. He says Tehran does not want to unnecessarily hurt China, Pakistan and other countries that stayed out of the war. But if Washington attacks again, that restraint disappears. “Iran is fully prepared.” Marandi says Iran has spent the lull expanding its missile and drone programs and strengthening underground facilities, while allied forces in Iraq are also preparing for another confrontation. And he sees Yemen as inseparable from that calculation. If Saudi Arabia launches another major campaign against Ansar Allah, Marandi says Iran could respond by tightening pressure in Hormuz while Saudi Arabia faces attacks from Yemen and potentially Iraq. That is what makes his broader argument so consequential. Washington is focused on restoring the old order in Hormuz. Saudi Arabia is increasingly worried about Ansar Allah approaching control of Bab el-Mandeb. Marandi says Iran intends to concede neither. “We're not going to open the Strait of Hormuz.” And if another U.S. attack targets Iranian infrastructure, he argues Tehran would no longer limit itself to absorbing the blow and responding proportionally. The Gulf’s energy infrastructure itself becomes part of the battlefield. “A couple of thousand of extra soldiers or an extra aircraft carrier are not going to change the balance of power.” Marandi’s message is essentially that the next round would not simply be another U.S.-Iran exchange. Hormuz, Yemen, Iraq and Saudi Arabia are increasingly becoming connected pressure points in the same confrontation. Another war with Iran could therefore spread across the region almost immediately. Seyed Mohammad Marandi

🇮🇷 Iran thinks another war is coming, and this time the entire region could be pulled in Prof. Mohammad Marandi’s argument is that the relative calm in the Strait of Hormuz should not be mistaken for Iranian weakness or a return to normal. Iran is deliberately allowing more traffic through. He says Tehran does not want to unnecessarily hurt China, Pakistan and other countries that stayed out of the war. But if Washington attacks again, that restraint disappears. “Iran is fully prepared.” Marandi says Iran has spent the lull expanding its missile and drone programs and strengthening underground facilities, while allied forces in Iraq are also preparing for another confrontation. And he sees Yemen as inseparable from that calculation. If Saudi Arabia launches another major campaign against Ansar Allah, Marandi says Iran could respond by tightening pressure in Hormuz while Saudi Arabia faces attacks from Yemen and potentially Iraq. That is what makes his broader argument so consequential. Washington is focused on restoring the old order in Hormuz. Saudi Arabia is increasingly worried about Ansar Allah approaching control of Bab el-Mandeb. Marandi says Iran intends to concede neither. “We're not going to open the Strait of Hormuz.” And if another U.S. attack targets Iranian infrastructure, he argues Tehran would no longer limit itself to absorbing the blow and responding proportionally. The Gulf’s energy infrastructure itself becomes part of the battlefield. “A couple of thousand of extra soldiers or an extra aircraft carrier are not going to change the balance of power.” Marandi’s message is essentially that the next round would not simply be another U.S.-Iran exchange. Hormuz, Yemen, Iraq and Saudi Arabia are increasingly becoming connected pressure points in the same confrontation. Another war with Iran could therefore spread across the region almost immediately. Seyed Mohammad Marandi

Mario Nawfal

320,539 Aufrufe • vor 2 Tagen

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The biggest concern isn't whether Iran will eventually concede, but what Washington is risking to force that concession. The U.S. is once again weaponizing the dollar while Treasury markets are already under pressure and foreign central banks are increasingly turning toward gold. That is the paradox. Even if economic warfare forces Tehran to give Washington something in the short term, the long-term cost could be a financial system that gives America's rivals even more reason to build alternatives to it. A tactical win in Iran could become a strategic loss for U.S. financial power. Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The biggest concern isn't whether Iran will eventually concede, but what Washington is risking to force that concession. The U.S. is once again weaponizing the dollar while Treasury markets are already under pressure and foreign central banks are increasingly turning toward gold. That is the paradox. Even if economic warfare forces Tehran to give Washington something in the short term, the long-term cost could be a financial system that gives America's rivals even more reason to build alternatives to it. A tactical win in Iran could become a strategic loss for U.S. financial power. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

47,895 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. has struck Iran again. And Glenn Diesen thinks Washington may have just solved one of Tehran’s biggest problems for it. Iran had been debating whether to strike first in the next round of fighting, but doing so risked making Tehran look like the aggressor. Now it doesn't have to. After U.S. strikes on Larak Island, Iran can retaliate while arguing that Washington restarted the shooting war. Diesen says the stranger part is that America's military position hasn't meaningfully improved since the last round. U.S. interceptor stocks remain under pressure, while Iran appears better able to replenish its missiles and drones and improved the power and accuracy of its strikes as the fighting progressed. So what exactly has changed? His answer: perhaps very little. Washington can't win the war on acceptable terms, can't accept Iran's peace demands, and can't comfortably freeze the conflict while Tehran strengthens relations with its neighbors and maintains control over Hormuz. That leaves America reaching for escalation without a convincing endgame. And Diesen argues the latest strike may strengthen Iranian voices calling for a much more dangerous doctrine: Stop allowing Washington to decide when wars start and stop. If the U.S. attacks Iran, it may no longer get to decide when the shooting ends. Glenn Diesen

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. has struck Iran again. And Glenn Diesen thinks Washington may have just solved one of Tehran’s biggest problems for it. Iran had been debating whether to strike first in the next round of fighting, but doing so risked making Tehran look like the aggressor. Now it doesn't have to. After U.S. strikes on Larak Island, Iran can retaliate while arguing that Washington restarted the shooting war. Diesen says the stranger part is that America's military position hasn't meaningfully improved since the last round. U.S. interceptor stocks remain under pressure, while Iran appears better able to replenish its missiles and drones and improved the power and accuracy of its strikes as the fighting progressed. So what exactly has changed? His answer: perhaps very little. Washington can't win the war on acceptable terms, can't accept Iran's peace demands, and can't comfortably freeze the conflict while Tehran strengthens relations with its neighbors and maintains control over Hormuz. That leaves America reaching for escalation without a convincing endgame. And Diesen argues the latest strike may strengthen Iranian voices calling for a much more dangerous doctrine: Stop allowing Washington to decide when wars start and stop. If the U.S. attacks Iran, it may no longer get to decide when the shooting ends. Glenn Diesen

Mario Nawfal

322,388 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Mohammad Marandi: Iran is negotiating, but it is preparing for war Iran has offered Washington a path back to the previous MoU, this time with much faster implementation on both sides. Trump rejected it. But Mohammad Marandi argues that Tehran’s offer shouldn’t be mistaken for desperation. He says Iran is deliberately allowing much of the traffic currently moving through the Strait of Hormuz because Tehran doesn’t want to crash the global economy or inflict unnecessary damage on countries such as China and Pakistan. “Most of the ships that go through do go with Iranian consent.” That gives Iran something more useful than simply closing Hormuz: a pressure valve it can tighten gradually. The negotiations serve another purpose. Marandi says demonstrating that Iran remains willing to return to the MoU strengthens Beijing’s hand as China deals with Washington. Tehran can tell its partners it offered a settlement and Washington refused it. None of that makes him optimistic. The probability of renewed U.S.-Iran military conflict is now “substantial,” potentially before or after the midterms. So Tehran’s strategy appears to be running on two tracks: Keep offering Washington an exit. And keep preparing for the very real possibility that Washington doesn’t take it. Seyed Mohammad Marandi

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Mohammad Marandi: Iran is negotiating, but it is preparing for war Iran has offered Washington a path back to the previous MoU, this time with much faster implementation on both sides. Trump rejected it. But Mohammad Marandi argues that Tehran’s offer shouldn’t be mistaken for desperation. He says Iran is deliberately allowing much of the traffic currently moving through the Strait of Hormuz because Tehran doesn’t want to crash the global economy or inflict unnecessary damage on countries such as China and Pakistan. “Most of the ships that go through do go with Iranian consent.” That gives Iran something more useful than simply closing Hormuz: a pressure valve it can tighten gradually. The negotiations serve another purpose. Marandi says demonstrating that Iran remains willing to return to the MoU strengthens Beijing’s hand as China deals with Washington. Tehran can tell its partners it offered a settlement and Washington refused it. None of that makes him optimistic. The probability of renewed U.S.-Iran military conflict is now “substantial,” potentially before or after the midterms. So Tehran’s strategy appears to be running on two tracks: Keep offering Washington an exit. And keep preparing for the very real possibility that Washington doesn’t take it. Seyed Mohammad Marandi

Mario Nawfal

333,141 Aufrufe • vor 9 Tagen

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may be making the biggest strategic miscalculation of the war. Geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert believes the White House is assuming one overwhelming show of force will push Iran back to the negotiating table. He thinks the opposite will happen. According to reports discussed in the interview, Washington is weighing a large-scale campaign targeting not only military sites, but potentially Iran's energy infrastructure as well. Brandon believes the logic is simple. Hit Iran hard enough, demonstrate overwhelming American power, then negotiate from a position of strength. He doesn't think Tehran sees it that way. His argument is that Washington is treating Iran like a conventional state that responds primarily to military pressure. Iran, he says, defines legitimacy through resistance. The harder it's hit, the harder it becomes politically for Tehran to compromise. That's why Brandon believes a major U.S. campaign wouldn't be the final round. It would simply be the start of the next one. The U.S. may be able to destroy what it can find. But it can never be certain it found everything. Meanwhile, Iran only needs to keep enough capability intact to continue imposing costs. Brandon believes that asymmetry favors Tehran over time. If Iran refuses to bend, what started as escalation could well become an open-ended war neither side knows how to end. Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may be making the biggest strategic miscalculation of the war. Geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert believes the White House is assuming one overwhelming show of force will push Iran back to the negotiating table. He thinks the opposite will happen. According to reports discussed in the interview, Washington is weighing a large-scale campaign targeting not only military sites, but potentially Iran's energy infrastructure as well. Brandon believes the logic is simple. Hit Iran hard enough, demonstrate overwhelming American power, then negotiate from a position of strength. He doesn't think Tehran sees it that way. His argument is that Washington is treating Iran like a conventional state that responds primarily to military pressure. Iran, he says, defines legitimacy through resistance. The harder it's hit, the harder it becomes politically for Tehran to compromise. That's why Brandon believes a major U.S. campaign wouldn't be the final round. It would simply be the start of the next one. The U.S. may be able to destroy what it can find. But it can never be certain it found everything. Meanwhile, Iran only needs to keep enough capability intact to continue imposing costs. Brandon believes that asymmetry favors Tehran over time. If Iran refuses to bend, what started as escalation could well become an open-ended war neither side knows how to end. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

377,798 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump has barely launched Operation Economic Outcast against Iran, and China is already calling his bluff. Beijing says it will not comply, and is threatening retaliation if Washington targets Chinese companies for continuing to trade with Tehran. That's a HUGE problem for Trump's strategy. Operation Economic Outcast is supposed to sever the international financial lifelines keeping Tehran alive. But Iran cannot be economically isolated if major trading partners simply refuse to participate. Washington can sanction Iran, but the real test has always been whether it is prepared to sanction the powerful countries that keep doing business with it. China has now effectively dared Trump to try. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman have announced a preliminary agreement over managing the Strait of Hormuz. Iran would control incoming maritime traffic and retain the right to impose service fees, while outbound traffic would use the Omani corridor. Crucially, Tehran says the agreement does not mean Hormuz is immediately reopening. Iran says the Strait will remain closed until the U.S naval blockade is lifted and the terms of the broader MOU are honoured. And there are signs Washington may already be moving in that direction. According to an Al Arabiya report, Pakistan's Asim Munir conveyed an American proposal to Tehran: Washington is prepared to lift the naval blockade and sanctions if Iran guarantees free passage through Hormuz and pressures the Houthis to stop attacking Saudi energy infrastructure. There is another important signal. The State Department is reportedly preparing to return diplomats to a string of Middle Eastern embassies evacuated during the war, suggesting Washington does not currently expect large-scale fighting to resume. Put all of this together, and Trump's strategy starts looking very different from the rhetoric; the direction of travel today may actually be toward a deal. Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump has barely launched Operation Economic Outcast against Iran, and China is already calling his bluff. Beijing says it will not comply, and is threatening retaliation if Washington targets Chinese companies for continuing to trade with Tehran. That's a HUGE problem for Trump's strategy. Operation Economic Outcast is supposed to sever the international financial lifelines keeping Tehran alive. But Iran cannot be economically isolated if major trading partners simply refuse to participate. Washington can sanction Iran, but the real test has always been whether it is prepared to sanction the powerful countries that keep doing business with it. China has now effectively dared Trump to try. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman have announced a preliminary agreement over managing the Strait of Hormuz. Iran would control incoming maritime traffic and retain the right to impose service fees, while outbound traffic would use the Omani corridor. Crucially, Tehran says the agreement does not mean Hormuz is immediately reopening. Iran says the Strait will remain closed until the U.S naval blockade is lifted and the terms of the broader MOU are honoured. And there are signs Washington may already be moving in that direction. According to an Al Arabiya report, Pakistan's Asim Munir conveyed an American proposal to Tehran: Washington is prepared to lift the naval blockade and sanctions if Iran guarantees free passage through Hormuz and pressures the Houthis to stop attacking Saudi energy infrastructure. There is another important signal. The State Department is reportedly preparing to return diplomats to a string of Middle Eastern embassies evacuated during the war, suggesting Washington does not currently expect large-scale fighting to resume. Put all of this together, and Trump's strategy starts looking very different from the rhetoric; the direction of travel today may actually be toward a deal. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

279,111 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Prof. Mohammad Marandi: Iran isn’t interested in another deal. It’s waiting for America to honor the last one. Washington appears to be betting that economic pressure will eventually force Iran back to the negotiating table. Prof. Mohammad Marandi thinks that fundamentally misunderstands Tehran’s position. Iran, he says, believes the negotiation is already over. Trump signed an agreement. Tehran now expects Washington to implement it, and until that happens, Marandi says there will be no new negotiations. “We have a deal. You signed that piece of paper. Whenever you implement the deal, then come talking.” That creates a dangerous problem. The U.S. is continuing its economic siege while Iran has explicitly warned that if Washington succeeds in seriously damaging its economy, Tehran will respond militarily. Iran cannot sanction American banks or shut down the U.S. economy, Marandi argues, so its response would be against U.S. economic assets, or assets it considers linked to Washington, across the region. Then America faces pressure to retaliate. And the cycle starts again. Marandi says a larger war in the coming weeks or months is now a serious possibility, whether triggered by Iranian retaliation, a desperate U.S. escalation, or another Israeli attack that pulls Washington back in. The two sides aren't negotiating toward the same finish line anymore. Washington is waiting for Iran to concede. Iran, meanwhile, is waiting for Washington to concede first. Seyed Mohammad Marandi

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Prof. Mohammad Marandi: Iran isn’t interested in another deal. It’s waiting for America to honor the last one. Washington appears to be betting that economic pressure will eventually force Iran back to the negotiating table. Prof. Mohammad Marandi thinks that fundamentally misunderstands Tehran’s position. Iran, he says, believes the negotiation is already over. Trump signed an agreement. Tehran now expects Washington to implement it, and until that happens, Marandi says there will be no new negotiations. “We have a deal. You signed that piece of paper. Whenever you implement the deal, then come talking.” That creates a dangerous problem. The U.S. is continuing its economic siege while Iran has explicitly warned that if Washington succeeds in seriously damaging its economy, Tehran will respond militarily. Iran cannot sanction American banks or shut down the U.S. economy, Marandi argues, so its response would be against U.S. economic assets, or assets it considers linked to Washington, across the region. Then America faces pressure to retaliate. And the cycle starts again. Marandi says a larger war in the coming weeks or months is now a serious possibility, whether triggered by Iranian retaliation, a desperate U.S. escalation, or another Israeli attack that pulls Washington back in. The two sides aren't negotiating toward the same finish line anymore. Washington is waiting for Iran to concede. Iran, meanwhile, is waiting for Washington to concede first. Seyed Mohammad Marandi

Mario Nawfal

335,898 Aufrufe • vor 23 Tagen

My interview with Jim Sciutto CNN International: A. The fundamental question is: What is the administration’s endgame with Iran? Right now, that remains unclear. Is the objective to weaken Iran, bring down the regime, force Tehran to capitulate, or ultimately return to negotiations and reach an agreement? These are very different objectives that require very different strategies. Until Washington defines what success actually looks like, it is difficult to understand where this conflict is heading or how it is supposed to end. B. Economic pressure is a tool, not an objective, and certainly not an exit strategy. Without a realistic diplomatic off-ramp, maximum economic pressure is more likely to produce escalation than capitulation. The assumption that Washington can continue squeezing Tehran while indefinitely preserving the current status quo is simply unrealistic. Iran has agency in this conflict. Tehran will look for ways to impose costs on the United States and its regional partners. So even if the administration wants to freeze the conflict at its current level, Iran has no reason to accommodate that preference. Washington does not control the escalation ladder by itself. C. Meanwhile, much of the discussion in Washington is focused on the Strait of Hormu which, we should remember, was open before the war, while the strategic problems that helped produce this conflict remain unresolved. The most important is Iran’s nuclear program. In fact, the nuclear challenge may now be more dangerous than it was before the war. Ali Khamenei was deeply hostile to the United States and Israel, but he was also extremely cautious about crossing the nuclear threshold. His removal has changed the decision-making environment in Tehran. With the IRGC now wielding greater influence, the possibility that Iran could decide to move toward a nuclear weapon has become more serious. cannot build a strategy around the assumption that the Iranian regime will collapse. That is not a strategy; it is wishful thinking. Economic pressure, even severe economic pressure, does not guarantee regime change. In fact, it could produce the opposite effect: triggering a nationalist backlash, strengthening the regime’s narrative that Iran is under external attack, and giving the leadership additional justification to crack down internally. Regime change may happen, but Washington cannot make it the central assumption on which its Iran strategy rests. U.S. policy has to be built around the Iran that exists today, not the Iran Washington hopes might emerge tomorrow. E. For the nuclear thtrat - That creates an enormous problem for Israel. It is difficult to imagine any Israeli government simply accepting an Iranian nuclear program moving toward weaponization. So ending the current fighting without addressing the nuclear issue would not resolve the underlying conflict. It could leave Washington and Jerusalem facing an even more dangerous crisis down the road. #IranWar‌ #iran #thebrief

My interview with Jim Sciutto CNN International: A. The fundamental question is: What is the administration’s endgame with Iran? Right now, that remains unclear. Is the objective to weaken Iran, bring down the regime, force Tehran to capitulate, or ultimately return to negotiations and reach an agreement? These are very different objectives that require very different strategies. Until Washington defines what success actually looks like, it is difficult to understand where this conflict is heading or how it is supposed to end. B. Economic pressure is a tool, not an objective, and certainly not an exit strategy. Without a realistic diplomatic off-ramp, maximum economic pressure is more likely to produce escalation than capitulation. The assumption that Washington can continue squeezing Tehran while indefinitely preserving the current status quo is simply unrealistic. Iran has agency in this conflict. Tehran will look for ways to impose costs on the United States and its regional partners. So even if the administration wants to freeze the conflict at its current level, Iran has no reason to accommodate that preference. Washington does not control the escalation ladder by itself. C. Meanwhile, much of the discussion in Washington is focused on the Strait of Hormu which, we should remember, was open before the war, while the strategic problems that helped produce this conflict remain unresolved. The most important is Iran’s nuclear program. In fact, the nuclear challenge may now be more dangerous than it was before the war. Ali Khamenei was deeply hostile to the United States and Israel, but he was also extremely cautious about crossing the nuclear threshold. His removal has changed the decision-making environment in Tehran. With the IRGC now wielding greater influence, the possibility that Iran could decide to move toward a nuclear weapon has become more serious. cannot build a strategy around the assumption that the Iranian regime will collapse. That is not a strategy; it is wishful thinking. Economic pressure, even severe economic pressure, does not guarantee regime change. In fact, it could produce the opposite effect: triggering a nationalist backlash, strengthening the regime’s narrative that Iran is under external attack, and giving the leadership additional justification to crack down internally. Regime change may happen, but Washington cannot make it the central assumption on which its Iran strategy rests. U.S. policy has to be built around the Iran that exists today, not the Iran Washington hopes might emerge tomorrow. E. For the nuclear thtrat - That creates an enormous problem for Israel. It is difficult to imagine any Israeli government simply accepting an Iranian nuclear program moving toward weaponization. So ending the current fighting without addressing the nuclear issue would not resolve the underlying conflict. It could leave Washington and Jerusalem facing an even more dangerous crisis down the road. #IranWar‌ #iran #thebrief

Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش

15,414 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

‼️🇺🇸🇮🇷 BIG | President Donald Trump says the United States is currently "low-keying it" with Iran, signaling that Washington is holding back from another major military escalation while allowing economic pressure on Tehran to build. According to Axios, Trump said the U.S. is maintaining only limited negotiations with Iran while closely watching the country's deteriorating economic situation. "We're only semi-negotiating with them. We're just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact that they have no money," Trump said. The president argued that Iran is in "very bad shape" economically and is even struggling to pay its military personnel, while the U.S. naval blockade continues to intensify financial pressure on Tehran. Trump suggested that Washington is prepared to wait rather than immediately return to large-scale military operations, calculating that mounting economic pressure could eventually force Iran toward a more favorable agreement. "It will work out. It always works out. It's like a chess game," Trump said of the confrontation with Tehran. The remarks indicate that, for now, Washington appears willing to let economic pressure do much of the work while keeping military escalation available as leverage if diplomacy fails. See the latest updates with us: Visioner

‼️🇺🇸🇮🇷 BIG | President Donald Trump says the United States is currently "low-keying it" with Iran, signaling that Washington is holding back from another major military escalation while allowing economic pressure on Tehran to build. According to Axios, Trump said the U.S. is maintaining only limited negotiations with Iran while closely watching the country's deteriorating economic situation. "We're only semi-negotiating with them. We're just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact that they have no money," Trump said. The president argued that Iran is in "very bad shape" economically and is even struggling to pay its military personnel, while the U.S. naval blockade continues to intensify financial pressure on Tehran. Trump suggested that Washington is prepared to wait rather than immediately return to large-scale military operations, calculating that mounting economic pressure could eventually force Iran toward a more favorable agreement. "It will work out. It always works out. It's like a chess game," Trump said of the confrontation with Tehran. The remarks indicate that, for now, Washington appears willing to let economic pressure do much of the work while keeping military escalation available as leverage if diplomacy fails. See the latest updates with us: Visioner

Visioner

51,951 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump is demanding reparations from Iran while Tehran is increasingly concluding there is no point negotiating with him at all. And while Washington waits for Tehran to crack, the Middle East is quietly building a security order designed to rely less on America. Trump told Axios that Washington is only "semi-negotiating" with Tehran and is essentially waiting for its economy to implode. Iran's currency has collapsed, inflation is crushing the country, and Trump thinks this pressure will eventually force Tehran to blink. There’s just one problem: Iran appears increasingly willing to wait him out. Tehran has already demonstrated that it can absorb enormous military and economic punishment without collapsing. And if Iranian leaders conclude Trump cannot be trusted to honour an agreement anyway, why make major concessions to an administration that will be gone in a few years? That creates a potentially dangerous stalemate, and Hormuz sits right in the middle. Trump may ultimately be prepared to walk away without meaningful concessions on the nuclear issue if he can just get the Strait properly reopened. Iran, however, is discussing a dramatically different future for Hormuz; one where Tehran decides which vessels can transit, hostile states face restrictions and violations can trigger fees or penalties. In other words: Trump wants the old Strait back, but Iran appears increasingly determined that version of it no longer exists. And despite his insistence that the economic pressure is working, the underlying energy problem hasn't disappeared. America's Strategic Petroleum Reserve is still being drawn down, China is also returning to the oil market after months of reduced buying, and so the clock isn't only ticking on Tehran, it's ticking on Washington too. And underneath all of this, something potentially much bigger is happening. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and nuclear-armed Pakistan are building a new defence partnership. Israel is openly alarmed, while Iran, surprisingly, is welcoming it. Tehran's foreign ministry now describes the pact as evidence that regional countries have realised they can no longer rely on the U.S and other outside powers to guarantee their security. That may ultimately be the biggest story here. America spent decades building a Middle Eastern security system with Washington at its centre. Instead, the region may now be moving in the opposite direction. Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump is demanding reparations from Iran while Tehran is increasingly concluding there is no point negotiating with him at all. And while Washington waits for Tehran to crack, the Middle East is quietly building a security order designed to rely less on America. Trump told Axios that Washington is only "semi-negotiating" with Tehran and is essentially waiting for its economy to implode. Iran's currency has collapsed, inflation is crushing the country, and Trump thinks this pressure will eventually force Tehran to blink. There’s just one problem: Iran appears increasingly willing to wait him out. Tehran has already demonstrated that it can absorb enormous military and economic punishment without collapsing. And if Iranian leaders conclude Trump cannot be trusted to honour an agreement anyway, why make major concessions to an administration that will be gone in a few years? That creates a potentially dangerous stalemate, and Hormuz sits right in the middle. Trump may ultimately be prepared to walk away without meaningful concessions on the nuclear issue if he can just get the Strait properly reopened. Iran, however, is discussing a dramatically different future for Hormuz; one where Tehran decides which vessels can transit, hostile states face restrictions and violations can trigger fees or penalties. In other words: Trump wants the old Strait back, but Iran appears increasingly determined that version of it no longer exists. And despite his insistence that the economic pressure is working, the underlying energy problem hasn't disappeared. America's Strategic Petroleum Reserve is still being drawn down, China is also returning to the oil market after months of reduced buying, and so the clock isn't only ticking on Tehran, it's ticking on Washington too. And underneath all of this, something potentially much bigger is happening. Saudi Arabia, Turkey and nuclear-armed Pakistan are building a new defence partnership. Israel is openly alarmed, while Iran, surprisingly, is welcoming it. Tehran's foreign ministry now describes the pact as evidence that regional countries have realised they can no longer rely on the U.S and other outside powers to guarantee their security. That may ultimately be the biggest story here. America spent decades building a Middle Eastern security system with Washington at its centre. Instead, the region may now be moving in the opposite direction. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

297,253 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🇺🇸🇮🇷 America may be trying to step back from the Middle East just as Iran is finding new ways to pull it back in Tehran is preparing thousands of civil defense units for a potential attack, anti-ship missiles are being fired around Hormuz, and Iran is nowhere near the economic collapse Trump has suggested. Instead, Tehran will keep finding ways to increase the cost of American pressure. That may already be happening through Yemen. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline could take roughly 6 weeks to fully repair after attacks on its pumping infrastructure, while Saudi Aramco has reportedly told European refiners they will receive no Saudi crude in October. And another American intervention against the Houthis could play directly into Iran's hands. It could drain U.S. resources, create a new recruitment cause for Ansar Allah and potentially bog Washington down in another long Middle Eastern conflict. Meanwhile, another confrontation is building across the Atlantic. Britain is telling its population to prepare for severe disruption from a potential war, forces are reinforcing Gotland, Lithuania is preparing evacuation plans and NATO is planning around the possibility of major conflicts involving Russia and China at the same time. Europe is badly overstating the Russian threat. And fear itself can become dangerous. If European governments increasingly prepare for a Russian attack that Moscow isn't planning, he argues they could eventually create the confrontation they're trying to prevent. So Washington now faces two very different versions of the same problem. In the Middle East, Iran may be trying to make American disengagement too costly. In Europe, America's allies may be trying to make disengagement too dangerous. Trump wants the United States to carry less of the world's security burden. The rest of the world isn't exactly cooperating. Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇮🇷 America may be trying to step back from the Middle East just as Iran is finding new ways to pull it back in Tehran is preparing thousands of civil defense units for a potential attack, anti-ship missiles are being fired around Hormuz, and Iran is nowhere near the economic collapse Trump has suggested. Instead, Tehran will keep finding ways to increase the cost of American pressure. That may already be happening through Yemen. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline could take roughly 6 weeks to fully repair after attacks on its pumping infrastructure, while Saudi Aramco has reportedly told European refiners they will receive no Saudi crude in October. And another American intervention against the Houthis could play directly into Iran's hands. It could drain U.S. resources, create a new recruitment cause for Ansar Allah and potentially bog Washington down in another long Middle Eastern conflict. Meanwhile, another confrontation is building across the Atlantic. Britain is telling its population to prepare for severe disruption from a potential war, forces are reinforcing Gotland, Lithuania is preparing evacuation plans and NATO is planning around the possibility of major conflicts involving Russia and China at the same time. Europe is badly overstating the Russian threat. And fear itself can become dangerous. If European governments increasingly prepare for a Russian attack that Moscow isn't planning, he argues they could eventually create the confrontation they're trying to prevent. So Washington now faces two very different versions of the same problem. In the Middle East, Iran may be trying to make American disengagement too costly. In Europe, America's allies may be trying to make disengagement too dangerous. Trump wants the United States to carry less of the world's security burden. The rest of the world isn't exactly cooperating. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

302,203 Aufrufe • vor 17 Tagen

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump has tried military force and economic strangulation against Iran; now Tehran has concluded that pressure simply does not work Iran has taken enormous punishment. Its economy is reeling, inflation is brutal, and its military has absorbed repeated strikes. But six months into the war, the regime is still standing, and crucially, Iran can still disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. Middle East scholar Joshua Landis believes that has fundamentally changed Tehran's calculation. Washington has moved from military force to its new “Economic D-Day,” but the regional cooperation needed to make that strategy truly devastating isn't materialising. Iraq, Turkey, the UAE and Qatar still have powerful incentives to trade with Iran. Oman is negotiating with Tehran. Pakistan and Qatar are talking to the Iranians. These countries don't want another regional war or a permanently closed Persian Gulf, and Iran knows it. Joshua says Tehran increasingly believes America has already played its strongest cards, which makes surrender even less attractive. Iranian leaders now believe that if they cave to Trump's demands, America and Israel will simply return once Iran has recovered and hit it again. In Joshua's words, Iran fears becoming another Gaza, Lebanon or Syria; periodically attacked to keep it permanently weak. So Tehran has reached the opposite conclusion: It has to make resisting Iran more painful than living with it. Tehran may finally have learned the difference between America having the power to hurt it, and having the power to make it surrender. Joshua Landis Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump has tried military force and economic strangulation against Iran; now Tehran has concluded that pressure simply does not work Iran has taken enormous punishment. Its economy is reeling, inflation is brutal, and its military has absorbed repeated strikes. But six months into the war, the regime is still standing, and crucially, Iran can still disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. Middle East scholar Joshua Landis believes that has fundamentally changed Tehran's calculation. Washington has moved from military force to its new “Economic D-Day,” but the regional cooperation needed to make that strategy truly devastating isn't materialising. Iraq, Turkey, the UAE and Qatar still have powerful incentives to trade with Iran. Oman is negotiating with Tehran. Pakistan and Qatar are talking to the Iranians. These countries don't want another regional war or a permanently closed Persian Gulf, and Iran knows it. Joshua says Tehran increasingly believes America has already played its strongest cards, which makes surrender even less attractive. Iranian leaders now believe that if they cave to Trump's demands, America and Israel will simply return once Iran has recovered and hit it again. In Joshua's words, Iran fears becoming another Gaza, Lebanon or Syria; periodically attacked to keep it permanently weak. So Tehran has reached the opposite conclusion: It has to make resisting Iran more painful than living with it. Tehran may finally have learned the difference between America having the power to hurt it, and having the power to make it surrender. Joshua Landis Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

215,721 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Prof. Mohammad Marandi: If Trump’s sanctions actually work, war may become inevitable Iran's economy is unquestionably worse than before the war, he says. Infrastructure is damaged, sanctions hurt, and Tehran is shifting toward a wartime economy. But Iran isn't thinking about surrender. It's preparing for another war. Marandi argues Tehran has spent decades preparing for exactly this confrontation, building underground facilities while developing missiles and drones. And he believes Iran is now rapidly expanding those capabilities during the current lull. That creates a nasty paradox for Trump's “Economic D-Day.” If the sanctions fail, Iran can simply absorb the pressure and wait. If they succeed in seriously damaging Iran's economy, Marandi believes Tehran will retaliate, potentially targeting American economic and military interests across the Gulf. And Iran still has another lever: Hormuz. Marandi argues Tehran could gradually tighten the flow of oil and other critical commodities, increasing pressure on global markets without immediately returning to full-scale war. So Washington's problem is becoming increasingly uncomfortable. Sanctions that don't work accomplish very little. Sanctions that do work may restart the war. And Marandi's conclusion is remarkably simple: if Washington is serious about using economic pressure to overthrow the Iranian government, renewed conflict is “inevitable.” Seyed Mohammad Marandi

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Prof. Mohammad Marandi: If Trump’s sanctions actually work, war may become inevitable Iran's economy is unquestionably worse than before the war, he says. Infrastructure is damaged, sanctions hurt, and Tehran is shifting toward a wartime economy. But Iran isn't thinking about surrender. It's preparing for another war. Marandi argues Tehran has spent decades preparing for exactly this confrontation, building underground facilities while developing missiles and drones. And he believes Iran is now rapidly expanding those capabilities during the current lull. That creates a nasty paradox for Trump's “Economic D-Day.” If the sanctions fail, Iran can simply absorb the pressure and wait. If they succeed in seriously damaging Iran's economy, Marandi believes Tehran will retaliate, potentially targeting American economic and military interests across the Gulf. And Iran still has another lever: Hormuz. Marandi argues Tehran could gradually tighten the flow of oil and other critical commodities, increasing pressure on global markets without immediately returning to full-scale war. So Washington's problem is becoming increasingly uncomfortable. Sanctions that don't work accomplish very little. Sanctions that do work may restart the war. And Marandi's conclusion is remarkably simple: if Washington is serious about using economic pressure to overthrow the Iranian government, renewed conflict is “inevitable.” Seyed Mohammad Marandi

Mario Nawfal

317,433 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat