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Trump's statement today that the Iran-U.S. memorandum of understanding is "over" should not come as a surprise. The agreement was never a peace deal. It was a confidence-building arrangement meant to create the conditions for broader nuclear negotiations. Those conditions have largely collapsed. The Israeli war in Lebanon has...

18,650 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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#WATCH | On being asked about the West Asia conflict and where the Islamabad MoU stands right now, Senior Journalist, Political Commentator & Author, Fareed Zakaria says, "It's completely dead. It was predictable that it would be dead... Iran has figured out it has a usable nuclear weapon that can be used as leverage, which is control over the Strait of Hormuz...What we are trying to solve now is a problem created by the war itself, and even that has not been solved. In my opinion, the whole thing is a very humiliating defeat for the United States" "It's completely dead. And it was predictable that it would be dead because it is a memorandum of misunderstanding...Iran has figured out it has a usable nuclear weapon, in other words, a weapon that is actually more powerful because it can be used as leverage. That leverage is control over the Strait of Hormuz, and they want to assert that power...To give you an understanding of how poorly this war has gone for the United States, remember President Trump's original goal, which was to destroy the Iranian regime, have the people of Iran launch an uprising, and bring democracy to Iran. That didn't work. The goal number two became the nuclear issue...The desire to get the Iranians to hand over their enriched uranium, swear that they would never use it again, and permanently end the program none of that has happened. The third goal then became control of the Strait of Hormuz, which, of course, was open before the war. What we are trying to solve now is a problem created by the war itself, and even that has not been solved. In my opinion, the whole thing is a very humiliating defeat for the United States" Watch full interview here:

ANI

49,071 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Mu interview BBC News (World) regarding the situation at Hormuz Straits: The renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz should not come as a surprise. While President Trump argues that the United States emerged victorious from the conflict, Tehran appears to believe that it also achieved its core strategic objectives. From Iran's perspective, maintaining leverage in the Strait of Hormuz is essential. Iranian leaders understand that U.S. sanctions can be imposed or lifted at Washington's discretion, making control over or the ability to threaten maritime traffic one of the few enduring sources of strategic leverage available to Tehran. The current situation also reflects the limitations of a hastily negotiated understanding that, did not fully address two of the most significant potential spoilers: Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz. The fundamental question is what the administration's long-term strategy toward Iran actually is. Washington may ultimately face difficult tradeoffs between pursuing a durable diplomatic agreement and seeking to fundamentally alter the balance of power in the Strait of Hormuz. If the objective is merely to conduct limited punitive strikes, they may have only a temporary effect on Iranian behavior while increasing the risk of undermining diplomacy. If, however, the objective is to fundamentally change the strategic reality in the Strait, that would likely require a far larger and more sustained military commitment, with significant costs and risks. The administration will therefore need to determine which objective it prioritizes most, because these different approaches may not be fully compatible. #IranWar‌

Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش

17,349 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 America isn't fighting Iran over the Strait of Hormuz; it's fighting to stop Tehran from proving that U.S. control of the Middle East can be broken. Most people still think this war is about ships, oil, or transit fees, but military and political analyst Elijah Magnier says it stopped being about that a long time ago. According to him, Washington believed it could strip Iran of its greatest source of leverage by moving Gulf shipping away from the Iranian-controlled channel and through Oman instead. He says they fundamentally misunderstood how Iran thinks. Tehran could negotiate over uranium enrichment, frozen assets, and it could even tolerate parts of the Memorandum of Understanding being chipped away, but Hormuz was never negotiable. For twenty years, Iran lived under sanctions while the rest of the world largely carried on as normal. Now, for the first time, Tehran has a way to make everyone else feel the consequences too. Its message is simple: If we cannot export our oil normally, then nobody else in the Gulf will either. That is why Elijah believes this war has become much bigger than a dispute over a shipping lane; the U.S is now fighting for its reputation. Because if Iran proves that it can defy Washington, absorb U.S military power and still dictate the terms of navigation through one of the world's most important chokepoints, every American ally and adversary will draw the same conclusion. U.S dominance is over. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

380,449 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Military and political analyst Elijah Magnier says the clearest sign the U.S lost the Iran war is that nobody is talking about Tehran's nuclear program anymore; they're fighting over the Strait of Hormuz. America went into this focused on Iran's nuclear program, its ballistic missiles, and regional proxies. Now Trump is arguing about who gets to control Hormuz, and Elijah thinks that tells you everything about how badly the original strategy failed. Iran's missile programme is still operational, its nuclear programme has been pushed into future negotiations, and its regional proxies remain part of Tehran's strategic calculations. Yet Washington's attention is now almost entirely consumed by a source of Iranian leverage that barely existed before the war: Hormuz. Elijah says Iran has effectively pulled off a strategic sleight of hand. For years, the world obsessed over Tehran's nuclear programme while Iran quietly built an enormous missile arsenal. Those missiles eventually gave Iran the ability to absorb American and Israeli attacks and continue retaliating across the region. Now he thinks they're doing it again. Everyone is staring at the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran is rebuilding missiles, maintaining its regional relationships, and buying time on the nuclear issue. Trump even briefly proposed charging ships a 20% fee to pass through the Strait. That lasted barely 24 hours before he replaced it with demands for massive Gulf investment in America. To Elijah, the whole episode exposed something much deeper. Washington says this is about freedom of navigation. But Trump accused Iran of monetizing Hormuz, then immediately tried to monetize it himself. Suddenly, the argument wasn't whether the Strait should be used as leverage; it was who gets to control it and collect the money, and Iran jumped on the contradiction immediately. Elijah's argument is that Trump has trapped himself. He entered the war determined to strip Iran of its leverage, but instead, he's handed Tehran a weapon it didn't have before. Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺

Mario Nawfal

317,382 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🚨 OPERATIONAL UPDATE: TALKS FAIL, PRESSURE CONTINUES - Reporting Window: Last 24 Hours The diplomatic track did not produce a result in this window. After extended, high-level negotiations in Islamabad, the United States and Iran left without an agreement, despite what both sides described as a final round of talks. At the same time, Lebanon remains active, the Strait of Hormuz is still unresolved, and the broader regional pressure structure has not changed. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇵🇰 ISLAMABAD TALKS: FAILED ROUND, NOT A BREAKTHROUGH The most important development in this window is straightforward: • U.S. and Iranian delegations held 21 hours of direct talks • No agreement was reached • Both sides left without accepting terms • Each side blamed the other The core issues did not move: • U.S. demands: nuclear rollback and unrestricted access to the Strait of Hormuz • Iranian demands: sanctions relief, reparations, control over Hormuz, and a regional ceasefire including Lebanon Those positions remain fundamentally incompatible. At its core, this is not just a ceasefire negotiation. It is a negotiation over Iran’s long-term ability to project power: • The U.S. is pushing to dismantle that capability, including nuclear, missile, and proxy elements • Iran is trying to preserve enough of it to remain a regional power Both sides are still signaling willingness to continue talks, but this round produced no progress. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇱🇧 LEBANON: CONTINUED STRIKES, NO LINK TO CEASEFIRE Lebanon remains the most active battlefield and was not affected by the failed negotiations. Israeli strikes continued across southern Lebanon, with reporting confirming: • Multiple strike waves across southern towns • At least 11 killed in recent operations • Continued targeting of Hezbollah infrastructure and positions At the same time, Hezbollah continues: • Intermittent rocket fire toward Israel • Ongoing clashes along the border This reinforces the established fact that there is no operational pause in Lebanon. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚓ STRAIT OF HORMUZ: NAVAL MOVEMENTS AND PARTIAL OPENING The most important operational shift in this window is in the Strait itself. Two U.S. Navy destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz, tied to planned mine-clearing operations. Three supertankers successfully exited the Gulf, while hundreds remain queued, and Iran continues to signal control and leverage over access. At the same time, the U.S. has now moved beyond signaling: • President Trump announced the Navy will interdict vessels that pay tolls to Iran • He indicated a willingness to impose a de facto blockade of the Strait • The stated objective is to eliminate Iran’s ability to monetize or control passage This creates a new reality: • Hormuz is not fully closed • It is not fully open • It is now becoming an actively contested maritime zone ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌍 GLOBAL ENERGY RESPONSE Markets are already adapting to the disruption. • Tankers are rerouting away from the Gulf • U.S. exports are rising toward record levels • Gulf Coast refineries are running near capacity • Major buyers are competing for non-Gulf supply The effect is clear. Iran disrupted supply, the global market began rerouting around it, that does not remove Iran’s leverage. It limits how long that leverage can be sustained. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📌 WHAT MATTERS MOST RIGHT NOW • U.S.–Iran talks failed to produce an agreement • Both sides left Islamabad without accepting terms, though talks may continue • Lebanon remains an active battlefield, with continued Israeli strikes and Hezbollah fire • The U.S. has begun direct naval movement through Hormuz, including destroyer transits and upcoming mine-clearing operations • Shipping is partially resuming, but the Strait remains unstable and contested ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🧠 ASSESSMENT This was a real negotiation attempt. It failed. And the reason it failed is becoming clearer. Iran continues to negotiate as if it holds structural leverage over the outcome. The battlefield suggests otherwise. Its position is weaker than its posture. But it is not without leverage. That leverage is concentrated in two places: • The ability to disrupt Hormuz and global energy flow • The ability to keep secondary fronts, especially Lebanon, active The first creates economic pressure. The second prevents clean diplomatic separation. At the same time, the United States is signaling something equally important: It is willing to test those limits directly. Naval transits through Hormuz are not symbolic. They are the early stages of forcing open the most important pressure point Iran still holds. That is the real signal underneath the headlines. Not just that talks failed. But that both sides are now preparing for what happens if they continue to fail.

Inside_Israel_Intel

22,034 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce