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$TSLA faces short term noise: Elon's antics, auto sales concerns, China competition, & regulatory risks. But these don't threaten Tesla's core thesis. The big picture remains strong.

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Tom Nash

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14,709 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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Why is it so hard to catch Tesla and SpaceX? Because they're not relying on just one big advantage! They have reusable rockets, Starlink, millions of connected cars collecting AI data, a global Supercharger network, a fast-growing energy business, Robotaxis, Optimus, and AI infrastructure. Each one makes the others stronger. That doesn't mean they're unbeatable. Waymo is ahead in commercial robotaxis, Starship still has big milestones to hit, and Tesla still faces strong competition in energy storage and AI. But that's what makes this story so interesting. It's not about whether Tesla and SpaceX have risks, they do. It's about whether their combined advantages grow faster than those risks. $TSLA $SPCX
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Why is it so hard to catch Tesla and SpaceX? Because they're not relying on just one big advantage! They have reusable rockets, Starlink, millions of connected cars collecting AI data, a global Supercharger network, a fast-growing energy business, Robotaxis, Optimus, and AI infrastructure. Each one makes the others stronger. That doesn't mean they're unbeatable. Waymo is ahead in commercial robotaxis, Starship still has big milestones to hit, and Tesla still faces strong competition in energy storage and AI. But that's what makes this story so interesting. It's not about whether Tesla and SpaceX have risks, they do. It's about whether their combined advantages grow faster than those risks. $TSLA $SPCX

Herbert Ong

22,265 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

After a two weeks off-grid I was rattled to see news across social media of Tesla protests and general Elon Musk haters. Beyond processing being sad at all the negative energy in the world, I thought it was an important time to think rationally about the impact that Elon's foray into politics will have on Tesla's sales (especially in USA and Europe) in the short term. Overall, I think we may be in for a period of volatility for the next 6 months to a year, especially as DOGE makes dramatic cuts to government spending. But, looming positively on the horizon is the Cybercab / Robotaxi network ... just 5 months away from being a reality, and one of the most consequential events in Tesla History. With Optimus trailing shortly behind. What are your thoughts on Tesla stock, and the impact of Elon Musk haters? $TSLA
9:42

After a two weeks off-grid I was rattled to see news across social media of Tesla protests and general Elon Musk haters. Beyond processing being sad at all the negative energy in the world, I thought it was an important time to think rationally about the impact that Elon's foray into politics will have on Tesla's sales (especially in USA and Europe) in the short term. Overall, I think we may be in for a period of volatility for the next 6 months to a year, especially as DOGE makes dramatic cuts to government spending. But, looming positively on the horizon is the Cybercab / Robotaxi network ... just 5 months away from being a reality, and one of the most consequential events in Tesla History. With Optimus trailing shortly behind. What are your thoughts on Tesla stock, and the impact of Elon Musk haters? $TSLA

Gali

44,738 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

📺 $TSLA JUST FLASHED A BUY SIGNAL... BUT THERE'S A CATCH Please ❤️like and 🔁share with fellow Tesla traders/investors #Tesla may have just flashed a short-term buy signal, but the bigger picture hasn't changed. After breaking below the critical 16-month channel support at $373.37 following disappointing earnings, Tesla triggered a major long-term sell signal. That breakdown pointed to an initial downside target in the $291.81-$300.90 area, and that objective has now been achieved. This support zone is doing exactly what it was expected to do: slow the decline and create conditions for a tradable rebound. * As the descending channel support continues to move lower, it is converging with the wave-count support around $291.81, creating an increasingly important technical floor. This is considered "bottom-picking territory," where buyers may begin accumulating shares and where selling pressure could remain contained through August. * The key level to watch today is $316.86. This former long-term trendline has become the most important short-term resistance. A weekly close above $316.86 would signal improving momentum and likely confirm the start of a multi-week recovery. If that breakout occurs, the first upside objective becomes $353.74 over the next two to three weeks. After testing strong support in the upper $290s and low $300s, a rebound toward that resistance level would be a typical technical move. Swing traders may view this as an opportunity to participate in the recovery while planning to take profits near the target. * The rally could eventually extend even further toward the former channel support at $373.37 within three to five weeks. Because #TSLA gapped sharply below that level after earnings without ever retesting it, it remains a major technical pivot that price may revisit before making its next significant move. However, there's an important catch. We don't believe that this rebound marks the beginning of a new bull market. Instead, it is viewed as a counter-trend rally inside a larger bearish structure. Even if Tesla rallies back toward $353 or $373, those levels may become opportunities to reduce exposure or initiate new short positions rather than chase higher prices. * The long-term outlook remains bearish as long as Tesla stays below $373.37. The broader technical target continues to be the $220s by year-end, with the recent rebound simply representing a pause within that larger downtrend. There is also a clear downside invalidation level. * If Tesla instead closes the week below $291.81, the bullish rebound thesis fails. In that scenario, selling accelerates toward approximately $271 over the following days, with $227.47 becoming the primary target by the end of September. The key takeaway is that the technical outlook depends entirely on the timeframe. In the short term, Tesla is constructive above the $300 support zone and becomes significantly more bullish with a weekly close above $316.86, targeting $353.74 and potentially $373.37 over the coming weeks. But over the longer term, we still view any recovery as temporary while the stock remains below the major breakdown level at $373.37. * Watch the full $TSLA analysis for July 31, 2026 in this short video🔽
2:55

📺 $TSLA JUST FLASHED A BUY SIGNAL... BUT THERE'S A CATCH Please ❤️like and 🔁share with fellow Tesla traders/investors #Tesla may have just flashed a short-term buy signal, but the bigger picture hasn't changed. After breaking below the critical 16-month channel support at $373.37 following disappointing earnings, Tesla triggered a major long-term sell signal. That breakdown pointed to an initial downside target in the $291.81-$300.90 area, and that objective has now been achieved. This support zone is doing exactly what it was expected to do: slow the decline and create conditions for a tradable rebound. * As the descending channel support continues to move lower, it is converging with the wave-count support around $291.81, creating an increasingly important technical floor. This is considered "bottom-picking territory," where buyers may begin accumulating shares and where selling pressure could remain contained through August. * The key level to watch today is $316.86. This former long-term trendline has become the most important short-term resistance. A weekly close above $316.86 would signal improving momentum and likely confirm the start of a multi-week recovery. If that breakout occurs, the first upside objective becomes $353.74 over the next two to three weeks. After testing strong support in the upper $290s and low $300s, a rebound toward that resistance level would be a typical technical move. Swing traders may view this as an opportunity to participate in the recovery while planning to take profits near the target. * The rally could eventually extend even further toward the former channel support at $373.37 within three to five weeks. Because #TSLA gapped sharply below that level after earnings without ever retesting it, it remains a major technical pivot that price may revisit before making its next significant move. However, there's an important catch. We don't believe that this rebound marks the beginning of a new bull market. Instead, it is viewed as a counter-trend rally inside a larger bearish structure. Even if Tesla rallies back toward $353 or $373, those levels may become opportunities to reduce exposure or initiate new short positions rather than chase higher prices. * The long-term outlook remains bearish as long as Tesla stays below $373.37. The broader technical target continues to be the $220s by year-end, with the recent rebound simply representing a pause within that larger downtrend. There is also a clear downside invalidation level. * If Tesla instead closes the week below $291.81, the bullish rebound thesis fails. In that scenario, selling accelerates toward approximately $271 over the following days, with $227.47 becoming the primary target by the end of September. The key takeaway is that the technical outlook depends entirely on the timeframe. In the short term, Tesla is constructive above the $300 support zone and becomes significantly more bullish with a weekly close above $316.86, targeting $353.74 and potentially $373.37 over the coming weeks. But over the longer term, we still view any recovery as temporary while the stock remains below the major breakdown level at $373.37. * Watch the full $TSLA analysis for July 31, 2026 in this short video🔽

Wicked Stocks

10,762 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Geopolitical Analyst Iqbal Chand Malhotra talks about India's strategic alliances amid current #IranUSWar Raghav: Will Saudi Arabia go against India? Iqbal Chand Malhotra: Yes, Our only true friend in that region is #Israel. You have to stand with your friend. You use Israel to leverage your relationship with US. Raghav: What about Russia? ICM: We have deep historical and traditional ties with Russia, especially in defense, which will continue. They think long-term, not short-term. Raghav: Besides Israel and Russia? ICM: Japan and Australia. These are countries with whom we have built strong ties. If we keep investing in these relationships, they will grow; otherwise, they could shrink. Raghav: Apart from China and Pakistan, who are our enemies? ICM: At this moment, we don't have any other enemies, provided we don't make any foolish mistakes. As long as we manage our domestic politics carefully and avoid major internal conflicts, the situation remains stable. #Iran #Israel #Irán #IranWar
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Geopolitical Analyst Iqbal Chand Malhotra talks about India's strategic alliances amid current #IranUSWar Raghav: Will Saudi Arabia go against India? Iqbal Chand Malhotra: Yes, Our only true friend in that region is #Israel. You have to stand with your friend. You use Israel to leverage your relationship with US. Raghav: What about Russia? ICM: We have deep historical and traditional ties with Russia, especially in defense, which will continue. They think long-term, not short-term. Raghav: Besides Israel and Russia? ICM: Japan and Australia. These are countries with whom we have built strong ties. If we keep investing in these relationships, they will grow; otherwise, they could shrink. Raghav: Apart from China and Pakistan, who are our enemies? ICM: At this moment, we don't have any other enemies, provided we don't make any foolish mistakes. As long as we manage our domestic politics carefully and avoid major internal conflicts, the situation remains stable. #Iran #Israel #Irán #IranWar

Chota Don

64,126 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Ansem explains why you need a long-term outlook in crypto “Crypto is so volatile that if you get too caught up in the day-to-day price action and you don't have a strong thesis on why this shit actually matters long-term, you're gonna get fucked over” “You're never gonna really make money in these markets. You're just not. It's because it's way too hard to trade them. It's too volatile” “So if you have like an extended picture, you can zoom out and you can DCA” “That's also I think why you should be able to sell on the way up at the top because you know how volatile this shit gets” “Like, okay, maybe in five to seven years it's just gonna be up infinite but this year it may go down 70%. So okay, maybe I'll take some profits”
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Ansem explains why you need a long-term outlook in crypto “Crypto is so volatile that if you get too caught up in the day-to-day price action and you don't have a strong thesis on why this shit actually matters long-term, you're gonna get fucked over” “You're never gonna really make money in these markets. You're just not. It's because it's way too hard to trade them. It's too volatile” “So if you have like an extended picture, you can zoom out and you can DCA” “That's also I think why you should be able to sell on the way up at the top because you know how volatile this shit gets” “Like, okay, maybe in five to seven years it's just gonna be up infinite but this year it may go down 70%. So okay, maybe I'll take some profits”

Jack

35,772 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

$Silver tapped the lower band and institutions stepped in to defend the lower band pivotal area — now the upper band is turning up, signaling a potential bounce 📈 Short term: ➡️ Bounce toward 80–82 looks likely ➡️ A move above 79.45 could trigger a run back into heavy strong resistance. But zoom out… the trend is still down ⚠️ Major institutional “bazooka block” (Resistance Area) sits between 88.30 – 92.70 — that’s the zone where rips are expected to get faded. Key read: 🎯 Lower band = where moves often terminate 🎯 Oscillator below dotted line = buy zone 🎯 Above it = sell pressure returns Silver remains one of the most easily pushed overnight markets — big money moves it fast very easy to push around especially overnight. Watch the levels, not the noise 👀 Full breakdown in the video below 👇
2:58

$Silver tapped the lower band and institutions stepped in to defend the lower band pivotal area — now the upper band is turning up, signaling a potential bounce 📈 Short term: ➡️ Bounce toward 80–82 looks likely ➡️ A move above 79.45 could trigger a run back into heavy strong resistance. But zoom out… the trend is still down ⚠️ Major institutional “bazooka block” (Resistance Area) sits between 88.30 – 92.70 — that’s the zone where rips are expected to get faded. Key read: 🎯 Lower band = where moves often terminate 🎯 Oscillator below dotted line = buy zone 🎯 Above it = sell pressure returns Silver remains one of the most easily pushed overnight markets — big money moves it fast very easy to push around especially overnight. Watch the levels, not the noise 👀 Full breakdown in the video below 👇

𝕋𝕙𝕖ℙ𝕚𝕧𝕠𝕥𝕂𝕚𝕟𝕘 👑

14,540 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

And I said "That's what you want when you have manipulation through short sales. You want short squeezes." The SEC is afraid of short squeezes. Because guess who doesn't want that ? Broker Dealers who have undue influence over financial regulators. Dr. Robert Shapiro told the SEC years ago that closing the enormous loopholes in REG SHO would help stop the market manipulation. But here we are years later and both political parties continue to protect the big players. The broker dealers. We are left with a highly manipulated market that makes brokers dealers a lot of money (share lending anyone?) and screws household investors. We haven't had a president yet, in either party, with the moral will to publicly call for a crack down on market manipulation and force regulators to follow through. Whether that changes with the incoming administration remains to be seen. Every trade has to be settled eventually. You can only kick the can for so long before markets collapse And this can has been kicked for decades. Dr Shapiro: "I was advising the SEC when they were writing REG SHO. I was in a big meeting with them and I said "you know your draft has enormous loopholes and it's not going to work". And I gave them some suggestions. They said "that'll destabilize the markets" and I said "how?" And he said "because it'll cause short squeezes" And I said "That's what you want when you have manipulation through short sales. You want short squeezes." But that is not part of the DNA of almost any large regulatory agency. Whose first law is maintain themselves. That's true of every bureaucracy, true of every corporation. Their second law is when they say don't destabilize the markets what they are saying is "don't make trouble for the major players". ..." STOP Counterfeit shares Patrick Byrne Susanne Trimbath PhD Courtesy: Dave Lauer Urvin
1:31

And I said "That's what you want when you have manipulation through short sales. You want short squeezes." The SEC is afraid of short squeezes. Because guess who doesn't want that ? Broker Dealers who have undue influence over financial regulators. Dr. Robert Shapiro told the SEC years ago that closing the enormous loopholes in REG SHO would help stop the market manipulation. But here we are years later and both political parties continue to protect the big players. The broker dealers. We are left with a highly manipulated market that makes brokers dealers a lot of money (share lending anyone?) and screws household investors. We haven't had a president yet, in either party, with the moral will to publicly call for a crack down on market manipulation and force regulators to follow through. Whether that changes with the incoming administration remains to be seen. Every trade has to be settled eventually. You can only kick the can for so long before markets collapse And this can has been kicked for decades. Dr Shapiro: "I was advising the SEC when they were writing REG SHO. I was in a big meeting with them and I said "you know your draft has enormous loopholes and it's not going to work". And I gave them some suggestions. They said "that'll destabilize the markets" and I said "how?" And he said "because it'll cause short squeezes" And I said "That's what you want when you have manipulation through short sales. You want short squeezes." But that is not part of the DNA of almost any large regulatory agency. Whose first law is maintain themselves. That's true of every bureaucracy, true of every corporation. Their second law is when they say don't destabilize the markets what they are saying is "don't make trouble for the major players". ..." STOP Counterfeit shares Patrick Byrne Susanne Trimbath PhD Courtesy: Dave Lauer Urvin

kristen shaughnessy

62,624 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

📺 $TSLA COULD BE DAYS AWAY FROM A MAJOR BREAKOUT SIGNAL Please ❤️like and 🔁share with fellow Tesla traders/investors #Tesla is currently sitting directly in the middle of a major technical battleground between key support in the low-$410s and major resistance in the mid-$440s to low-$450s. It remains inside a large “ping-pong” trading structure unless it can decisively break above the critical $451.12 resistance level on a weekly closing basis. * $TSLA successfully rallied into the former channel bottom near $446.94 several weeks ago and even briefly pushed through it, eventually topping near an alternative upper channel formation around $451.12. However, despite the temporary breakout attempt, the structure ultimately held as resistance. The daily chart resistance is now around $449.02, which is #TSLA primary near-term ceiling. So, Tesla is now trapped between these channel extremes: – Lower range support: roughly $350–$352 – Upper range resistance: roughly $449–$451 This range could dominate trading through June and possibly into July unless a decisive breakout occurs. * The bullish scenario centers entirely around a confirmed weekly close above $451.12. This would represent “phase two” of the rally that began at the $352.31 bottom. If #Tesla can achieve that breakout confirmation, the next major upside target becomes $498.83 — near the December high from last year — and the move could unfold surprisingly quickly, potentially within 2–3 weeks. In that breakout case: – Shorts should exit positions – Momentum traders should flip bullish – The expectation becomes a sustained rally through the entire Q3 * On the shorter-term chart, $430.57 is the immediate pivot level. This level represents a 5/8 Fibonacci retracement from the prior two-week trading extremes and was already tested the previous Friday. That creates a very clear near-term roadmap: 1. Closing above $430.57: – Keeps bullish momentum intact – Makes $449.02 likely within days – Reinforces the thesis that the recent $410.54 support test was successful – Suggests Tesla can challenge the upper resistance again this week 2. Failing at or below $430.57: – Raises odds of another pullback toward $410.54 – Keeps Tesla trapped inside the broader consolidation range $410.54 is the critical short-term support and rising channel bottom. Importantly, $TSLA never officially closed below it before, so no true sell signal was triggered despite intraday weakness. Because of that: – Holding above $410.54 keeps the bullish recovery structure alive – It maintains $449.02 as an active 1–2 week upside target – It supports the idea that buyers are still defending the trend * However, the downside risks become aggressive if $TSLA loses that level on a closing basis. A close below $410.54 would: – Reverse short-term momentum bearish – Signal that the recent rally attempt likely failed – Open the door to a rapid decline toward $381.61 within 3–5 trading days The $381.61 level is another key Fibonacci support zone and is the next area capable of absorbing selling pressure. If that fails, the larger bearish retracement scenario back toward the major $352.31 channel bottom comes back into play. * So, $TSLA is sitting almost exactly on the key pivot zone. Bulls need sustained strength above $430.57 to regain momentum toward $449, while bears need a decisive break below $410.54 to trigger downside acceleration toward $381. The ultimate macro signal remains the same: weekly close above $451.12 would likely trigger a much larger breakout toward the $500 area and potentially shift Tesla into a powerful Q3 uptrend phase. * Watch the full analysis for May 26, 2026 in this short video🔽
2:57

📺 $TSLA COULD BE DAYS AWAY FROM A MAJOR BREAKOUT SIGNAL Please ❤️like and 🔁share with fellow Tesla traders/investors #Tesla is currently sitting directly in the middle of a major technical battleground between key support in the low-$410s and major resistance in the mid-$440s to low-$450s. It remains inside a large “ping-pong” trading structure unless it can decisively break above the critical $451.12 resistance level on a weekly closing basis. * $TSLA successfully rallied into the former channel bottom near $446.94 several weeks ago and even briefly pushed through it, eventually topping near an alternative upper channel formation around $451.12. However, despite the temporary breakout attempt, the structure ultimately held as resistance. The daily chart resistance is now around $449.02, which is #TSLA primary near-term ceiling. So, Tesla is now trapped between these channel extremes: – Lower range support: roughly $350–$352 – Upper range resistance: roughly $449–$451 This range could dominate trading through June and possibly into July unless a decisive breakout occurs. * The bullish scenario centers entirely around a confirmed weekly close above $451.12. This would represent “phase two” of the rally that began at the $352.31 bottom. If #Tesla can achieve that breakout confirmation, the next major upside target becomes $498.83 — near the December high from last year — and the move could unfold surprisingly quickly, potentially within 2–3 weeks. In that breakout case: – Shorts should exit positions – Momentum traders should flip bullish – The expectation becomes a sustained rally through the entire Q3 * On the shorter-term chart, $430.57 is the immediate pivot level. This level represents a 5/8 Fibonacci retracement from the prior two-week trading extremes and was already tested the previous Friday. That creates a very clear near-term roadmap: 1. Closing above $430.57: – Keeps bullish momentum intact – Makes $449.02 likely within days – Reinforces the thesis that the recent $410.54 support test was successful – Suggests Tesla can challenge the upper resistance again this week 2. Failing at or below $430.57: – Raises odds of another pullback toward $410.54 – Keeps Tesla trapped inside the broader consolidation range $410.54 is the critical short-term support and rising channel bottom. Importantly, $TSLA never officially closed below it before, so no true sell signal was triggered despite intraday weakness. Because of that: – Holding above $410.54 keeps the bullish recovery structure alive – It maintains $449.02 as an active 1–2 week upside target – It supports the idea that buyers are still defending the trend * However, the downside risks become aggressive if $TSLA loses that level on a closing basis. A close below $410.54 would: – Reverse short-term momentum bearish – Signal that the recent rally attempt likely failed – Open the door to a rapid decline toward $381.61 within 3–5 trading days The $381.61 level is another key Fibonacci support zone and is the next area capable of absorbing selling pressure. If that fails, the larger bearish retracement scenario back toward the major $352.31 channel bottom comes back into play. * So, $TSLA is sitting almost exactly on the key pivot zone. Bulls need sustained strength above $430.57 to regain momentum toward $449, while bears need a decisive break below $410.54 to trigger downside acceleration toward $381. The ultimate macro signal remains the same: weekly close above $451.12 would likely trigger a much larger breakout toward the $500 area and potentially shift Tesla into a powerful Q3 uptrend phase. * Watch the full analysis for May 26, 2026 in this short video🔽

Wicked Stocks

15,337 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

$FLNC Batteries, Energy Storage 3.8B Market cap My take: A spicy shorter-term "battery meta" play with a potential long-term "Amazon" thesis. $FLNC is in a capital-intensive expansion phase with thin margins generating billions in revenue but very little in net profit Key: This is a capital-intensive INTEGRATOR, not a battery manufacturer. They don't make lithium-ion batteries but rather procure them (roughly 50% from China and more recently aiming for 50% from USA). They provide large grid-scale battery integration into power systems with roles in: 🔹Advisory, procurement, & build-outs. 🔹AI driven battery fleet management software 🔹Long-term servicing ------------------------- THE "SCALE" Global Scale: Operates in 40+ markets with one of the largest deployed fleets of energy storage projects in the world. Credibility and Reach: Formed as a joint venture between Siemens (an industrial manufacturing giant) and AES (a global utility and power generator) with massive industry backing. Massive Backlog: As of their last report, their backlog was already enormous at ~$4.9 billion. They signed an additional ~$1.1 billion in new contracts after this last quarter ended (including two massive projects in Australia) Major Wins: They can operate at scale and were also just awarded Europe's largest ever BESS project (a massive 4 GWh system in Germany). ------------------------- THE "PROFIT PROBLEM" Wafer-Thin Margins: Out of $602.5 million of revenue in Q3 FY2025, their net income was just $6.9M (a ~1.1% net profit margin). (That 14% number you see is their GAAP Gross Margin, which is already thin, but I'd argue the net profit is the current story and why a company doing $2.6B in revenue is valued at $3.8B). Weak Guidance: FY2025 Adj. EBITDA guidance is just $0 to $20M despite forecasting over $2.6B in revenue. Trade Policy Risk: Highly exposed to US-China trade policy, which has weighed on profits. Roughly half of their battery cells come from China which hurts their tax credits. For these reasons they are strategically increasing their US sourcing now with a supply agreement with AESC for U.S. manufactured battery cells, primarily from AESC's facility in Tennessee. "Strong-ish" Growth: Revenue was up 24.7% YoY. This is good, but not explosive given the market's potential, and it's clearly not translating to the bottom line yet. For these reasons this is currently a smaller short term battery meta play for me that has shown very strong recent stock technical performance despite the significant broader market weakness. When institutions want a "cheap" de-risked pure battery play, I think they will reach for $FLNC. The long term potential case is that the story here is the classic "Amazon" model: Is $FLNC a company that's just in a capital-intensive expansion phase, or is it a low-margin business forever? For years, $AMZN wasn't highly profitable "on paper" as virtually all resources were spent on massive scaling. When the profit switch flipped, the stock exploded. $FLNC is in a similar "scale-at-all-costs" phase with the potential that servicing and software will be the future AWS higher margin story. Their pivot to US sourcing isn't just about "surviving" trade policy; it's about building a protected, high-growth, and potentially higher-margin business in the U.S. September 2025 saw their first shipment of U.S. domestic-content BESS systems. Depending on how this capital-intensive phase goes, they could evolve into a long-term play for me. If they survive the cash burn, scale successfully, and flip that profit switch, the "Amazon of batteries" thesis could play out. Relevance: $TSLA $EOSE $BE $GEV $STEM $ENS $GWH $ENS $TE $FSLR
3:10

$FLNC Batteries, Energy Storage 3.8B Market cap My take: A spicy shorter-term "battery meta" play with a potential long-term "Amazon" thesis. $FLNC is in a capital-intensive expansion phase with thin margins generating billions in revenue but very little in net profit Key: This is a capital-intensive INTEGRATOR, not a battery manufacturer. They don't make lithium-ion batteries but rather procure them (roughly 50% from China and more recently aiming for 50% from USA). They provide large grid-scale battery integration into power systems with roles in: 🔹Advisory, procurement, & build-outs. 🔹AI driven battery fleet management software 🔹Long-term servicing ------------------------- THE "SCALE" Global Scale: Operates in 40+ markets with one of the largest deployed fleets of energy storage projects in the world. Credibility and Reach: Formed as a joint venture between Siemens (an industrial manufacturing giant) and AES (a global utility and power generator) with massive industry backing. Massive Backlog: As of their last report, their backlog was already enormous at ~$4.9 billion. They signed an additional ~$1.1 billion in new contracts after this last quarter ended (including two massive projects in Australia) Major Wins: They can operate at scale and were also just awarded Europe's largest ever BESS project (a massive 4 GWh system in Germany). ------------------------- THE "PROFIT PROBLEM" Wafer-Thin Margins: Out of $602.5 million of revenue in Q3 FY2025, their net income was just $6.9M (a ~1.1% net profit margin). (That 14% number you see is their GAAP Gross Margin, which is already thin, but I'd argue the net profit is the current story and why a company doing $2.6B in revenue is valued at $3.8B). Weak Guidance: FY2025 Adj. EBITDA guidance is just $0 to $20M despite forecasting over $2.6B in revenue. Trade Policy Risk: Highly exposed to US-China trade policy, which has weighed on profits. Roughly half of their battery cells come from China which hurts their tax credits. For these reasons they are strategically increasing their US sourcing now with a supply agreement with AESC for U.S. manufactured battery cells, primarily from AESC's facility in Tennessee. "Strong-ish" Growth: Revenue was up 24.7% YoY. This is good, but not explosive given the market's potential, and it's clearly not translating to the bottom line yet. For these reasons this is currently a smaller short term battery meta play for me that has shown very strong recent stock technical performance despite the significant broader market weakness. When institutions want a "cheap" de-risked pure battery play, I think they will reach for $FLNC. The long term potential case is that the story here is the classic "Amazon" model: Is $FLNC a company that's just in a capital-intensive expansion phase, or is it a low-margin business forever? For years, $AMZN wasn't highly profitable "on paper" as virtually all resources were spent on massive scaling. When the profit switch flipped, the stock exploded. $FLNC is in a similar "scale-at-all-costs" phase with the potential that servicing and software will be the future AWS higher margin story. Their pivot to US sourcing isn't just about "surviving" trade policy; it's about building a protected, high-growth, and potentially higher-margin business in the U.S. September 2025 saw their first shipment of U.S. domestic-content BESS systems. Depending on how this capital-intensive phase goes, they could evolve into a long-term play for me. If they survive the cash burn, scale successfully, and flip that profit switch, the "Amazon of batteries" thesis could play out. Relevance: $TSLA $EOSE $BE $GEV $STEM $ENS $GWH $ENS $TE $FSLR

YeahDave

27,279 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

There’s a narrative out there that the actions against Iran “lack strategy.” I debunk that notion. First of all we have a clear and strategic objective: Iran can never have a nuclear bomb. Then you have to deal with REALITY instead of western ideals of traditional diplomacy. The reality is that this regime is a radical theocracy that thrives on martyrdom and only understands the language of strength. They have a high threshold for pain but it’s not infinite. Our strategy has been simple. Decimate their conventional military capacity so they can no longer protect their nuclear program. We retain the option to continue targeting if they don’t make the deal we want. Second, our blockade has been effective and is drastically reducing the time that Iran has. They don’t have time on their side, but we do. Oil markets are not what they used to be. Iran will have to come to the table on our terms or more pain will be inflicted. Are there short term costs? Yes but they are minimal. People need to have some perspective. Looking back we can only WISH we had taken action against North Korea before they became untouchable. We cannot risk another untouchable rogue terrorist regime. Period. This is not an endless war. It has been just over a month, no boots on the ground. Our gulf allies are emboldened and united. We all understand the need for bold action that ensures long term stability. The alternative is the same failed policy of strongly worded letters and ineffective sanctions that simply keep the problem alive and in need of constant attention. President Trump is methodically wiping these persistent foreign policy problems off the map, so that America can invest in future competition with China. Breathe. Think long term. See the whole picture.
2:17

There’s a narrative out there that the actions against Iran “lack strategy.” I debunk that notion. First of all we have a clear and strategic objective: Iran can never have a nuclear bomb. Then you have to deal with REALITY instead of western ideals of traditional diplomacy. The reality is that this regime is a radical theocracy that thrives on martyrdom and only understands the language of strength. They have a high threshold for pain but it’s not infinite. Our strategy has been simple. Decimate their conventional military capacity so they can no longer protect their nuclear program. We retain the option to continue targeting if they don’t make the deal we want. Second, our blockade has been effective and is drastically reducing the time that Iran has. They don’t have time on their side, but we do. Oil markets are not what they used to be. Iran will have to come to the table on our terms or more pain will be inflicted. Are there short term costs? Yes but they are minimal. People need to have some perspective. Looking back we can only WISH we had taken action against North Korea before they became untouchable. We cannot risk another untouchable rogue terrorist regime. Period. This is not an endless war. It has been just over a month, no boots on the ground. Our gulf allies are emboldened and united. We all understand the need for bold action that ensures long term stability. The alternative is the same failed policy of strongly worded letters and ineffective sanctions that simply keep the problem alive and in need of constant attention. President Trump is methodically wiping these persistent foreign policy problems off the map, so that America can invest in future competition with China. Breathe. Think long term. See the whole picture.

Dan Crenshaw

232,873 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

SIGNAL VS NOISE: WHY OIL KEEPS FALLING ON REAL ESCALATION Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, just delivered a blunt weekly update that cuts through the daily chaos. In a market drowning in headlines, he argues the real danger is not the noise—it is the structural signal almost nobody is pricing. What he lays out should make every energy investor pause. THE CORE THESIS ➡️ “Despite the volatility that we see in oil many of the past few days defying logic… we’re focusing on the signals.” ➡️ Iran has decided control of the Strait of Hormuz gives them more tactical leverage than actually possessing a nuclear bomb. ➡️ Everything coming out of the IRGC supports that belief: they are not going to give that control up. ➡️ The Trump administration underestimated how complicated this incursion would be, expecting a short-term outcome that has clearly not materialized. THE NOISE TRAP ➡️ Trump claims Iran is begging for a deal while a missile hits a U.S. Air Force base in Jordan. ➡️ Stories of oil abundance and an imminent glut ignore the SPR sitting at 307 million barrels. ➡️ Sources intimately involved in the largest prior SPR release believe meaningful drawdowns below 300 million risk integrity issues in the salt caverns. ➡️ Global strategic stocks now sit at the lowest levels since 1983–84. THE PHYSICAL REALITY ➡️ Middle East production remains down at least 6.5 million barrels per day. ➡️ Volumes exiting the Strait have collapsed from roughly 15 million to about 3.5 million barrels per day. ➡️ Last night only two vessels were tracked heading inbound—the critical number needed to empty onshore storage and restore full output. ➡️ China imports remain down 3.5 million barrels per day year-over-year as they quietly deplete finite refined stocks. THE ONLY TWO ENDGAMES ➡️ Either a major U.S. military escalation to try to seize the Strait—possible but very dangerous, very long, and full of ramifications—or a TACO that lets Trump claim some victory while leaving control in IRGC hands. ➡️ Gulf states are unlikely to accept permanent tolls or ransoms from the same actors attacking them. ➡️ Houthis are already studying the same model for the Red Sea. THE BOTTOM LINE Nuttall’s message is clear: day-to-day price action is noise. The structural signals point to a tighter, more volatile energy market once China returns and SPRs hit their practical floor. Complacency is the real risk right now. This market is far more dangerous than the daily tape admits. #OilMarkets #StraitOfHormuz #EnergyInvesting #SPRCrisis #IranWar #SignalVsNoise #Ninepoint HT: Eric Nuttall
1:30

SIGNAL VS NOISE: WHY OIL KEEPS FALLING ON REAL ESCALATION Eric Nuttall, Senior Portfolio Manager of Ninepoint Energy Strategies, just delivered a blunt weekly update that cuts through the daily chaos. In a market drowning in headlines, he argues the real danger is not the noise—it is the structural signal almost nobody is pricing. What he lays out should make every energy investor pause. THE CORE THESIS ➡️ “Despite the volatility that we see in oil many of the past few days defying logic… we’re focusing on the signals.” ➡️ Iran has decided control of the Strait of Hormuz gives them more tactical leverage than actually possessing a nuclear bomb. ➡️ Everything coming out of the IRGC supports that belief: they are not going to give that control up. ➡️ The Trump administration underestimated how complicated this incursion would be, expecting a short-term outcome that has clearly not materialized. THE NOISE TRAP ➡️ Trump claims Iran is begging for a deal while a missile hits a U.S. Air Force base in Jordan. ➡️ Stories of oil abundance and an imminent glut ignore the SPR sitting at 307 million barrels. ➡️ Sources intimately involved in the largest prior SPR release believe meaningful drawdowns below 300 million risk integrity issues in the salt caverns. ➡️ Global strategic stocks now sit at the lowest levels since 1983–84. THE PHYSICAL REALITY ➡️ Middle East production remains down at least 6.5 million barrels per day. ➡️ Volumes exiting the Strait have collapsed from roughly 15 million to about 3.5 million barrels per day. ➡️ Last night only two vessels were tracked heading inbound—the critical number needed to empty onshore storage and restore full output. ➡️ China imports remain down 3.5 million barrels per day year-over-year as they quietly deplete finite refined stocks. THE ONLY TWO ENDGAMES ➡️ Either a major U.S. military escalation to try to seize the Strait—possible but very dangerous, very long, and full of ramifications—or a TACO that lets Trump claim some victory while leaving control in IRGC hands. ➡️ Gulf states are unlikely to accept permanent tolls or ransoms from the same actors attacking them. ➡️ Houthis are already studying the same model for the Red Sea. THE BOTTOM LINE Nuttall’s message is clear: day-to-day price action is noise. The structural signals point to a tighter, more volatile energy market once China returns and SPRs hit their practical floor. Complacency is the real risk right now. This market is far more dangerous than the daily tape admits. #OilMarkets #StraitOfHormuz #EnergyInvesting #SPRCrisis #IranWar #SignalVsNoise #Ninepoint HT: Eric Nuttall

Mark

15,502 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

China’s Data Tell Us That a Structural Shift Is Coming—and Global Leaders Are Freaking Out at the Implications "China’s Real Economic Risks with Carlos Alegría and Ed Dowd" Edward Dowd Carlos Alegria This week, I am joined by Carlos Alegría (CEO) and Edward “Ed” Dowd (founding partner) of Phinance Technologies. As macroeconomic consultants, their core expertise is a high-integrity, data-driven focus on the underlying forces that tend to remain “invisible and neglected by most market participants.” Phinance has just released a major report on China’s economic outlook for 2026, as well as a major report on the U.S. economic outlook. In this discussion, we take a serious look at the economic risks that China will be forced to confront in the coming year and beyond. Our discussion focuses on three areas: - Demographics: In the aftermath of the One Child Policy, China’s population is shrinking—and that has significant economic implications. - GDP and Debt: Relative to the U.S., China’s GDP has declined. In 2025, China managed to achieve a 5% growth rate through strong exports, but to keep it going, they will need to continue to “export, export, export”—with ramifications for the economies being flooded with China’s cheap goods. China has also doubled its money supply. - Real Estate: China’s real estate problem is getting worse, not better. When the bubble bursts, Alegría and Dowd have serious concerns about a possible worldwide real estate contagion. Both of my guests bring a wealth of credentials permitting a nuanced and informed discussion of China’s economic realities. Alegría, originally trained as a physicist before turning to quantitative finance, has dual PhDs in optoelectronics and finance. While working at a large London-based hedge fund at the onset of the 2008 Financial Crisis, he was shocked to realize that almost no one saw it coming. He is author of the 2017 book, Economic Cycles, Debt, and Demographics. During the height of the Covid injection rollout, Dowd earned our deep appreciation for his powerful “Cause Unknown” book, his integrity, and his clarity in giving voice to the “died suddenly” phenomenon—and its economic implications. Before cofounding Phinance with Alegría, he had a lengthy career on Wall Street, including as a portfolio manager at BlackRock. This is an interview that helps adjust the picture that most Western financial professionals have about China, by, as Alegría puts it on the Phinance website, “separating information (signal) from noise.” For those who manage a family office, institutional assets, or family savings, and are likely affected by what happens in China and by the Trump administration’s trade policies, these Phinance reports offer valuable intelligence. Full Report: Subscribe to
6:50

China’s Data Tell Us That a Structural Shift Is Coming—and Global Leaders Are Freaking Out at the Implications "China’s Real Economic Risks with Carlos Alegría and Ed Dowd" Edward Dowd Carlos Alegria This week, I am joined by Carlos Alegría (CEO) and Edward “Ed” Dowd (founding partner) of Phinance Technologies. As macroeconomic consultants, their core expertise is a high-integrity, data-driven focus on the underlying forces that tend to remain “invisible and neglected by most market participants.” Phinance has just released a major report on China’s economic outlook for 2026, as well as a major report on the U.S. economic outlook. In this discussion, we take a serious look at the economic risks that China will be forced to confront in the coming year and beyond. Our discussion focuses on three areas: - Demographics: In the aftermath of the One Child Policy, China’s population is shrinking—and that has significant economic implications. - GDP and Debt: Relative to the U.S., China’s GDP has declined. In 2025, China managed to achieve a 5% growth rate through strong exports, but to keep it going, they will need to continue to “export, export, export”—with ramifications for the economies being flooded with China’s cheap goods. China has also doubled its money supply. - Real Estate: China’s real estate problem is getting worse, not better. When the bubble bursts, Alegría and Dowd have serious concerns about a possible worldwide real estate contagion. Both of my guests bring a wealth of credentials permitting a nuanced and informed discussion of China’s economic realities. Alegría, originally trained as a physicist before turning to quantitative finance, has dual PhDs in optoelectronics and finance. While working at a large London-based hedge fund at the onset of the 2008 Financial Crisis, he was shocked to realize that almost no one saw it coming. He is author of the 2017 book, Economic Cycles, Debt, and Demographics. During the height of the Covid injection rollout, Dowd earned our deep appreciation for his powerful “Cause Unknown” book, his integrity, and his clarity in giving voice to the “died suddenly” phenomenon—and its economic implications. Before cofounding Phinance with Alegría, he had a lengthy career on Wall Street, including as a portfolio manager at BlackRock. This is an interview that helps adjust the picture that most Western financial professionals have about China, by, as Alegría puts it on the Phinance website, “separating information (signal) from noise.” For those who manage a family office, institutional assets, or family savings, and are likely affected by what happens in China and by the Trump administration’s trade policies, these Phinance reports offer valuable intelligence. Full Report: Subscribe to

The Solari Report | Catherine Austin Fitts

16,059 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

this is the most bittersweet video i've ever posted 😢 today i sold 10% of my Tesla stock, while ironically, my belief in the company's long term potential is stronger than ever. long story short i need cash to pay some bills and rent for the next 6 months/year, and decided to take what i need off the table now, instead of waiting 90% of my personal assets are still invested in Elon Musk companies $TSLA + SpaceX so to say I'm still bullish would be an understatement lol but i cannot denounce my investing intuition. i think there is a strong probability of a continued pullback in Tesla shares as Department of Government Efficiency makes dramatic (but very necessary) changes to our government these effects will be felt across the world, and are resulting in ridiculous amounts of Elon Musk hate, which totally sucks. but my gut says it may impact sales, revenue and earnings in the short term at a $1T valuation with $100B in revenue and $10B in earnings we do not have a value/cashflow cushion to backstop the valuation from falling if wall street perceives weak sales momentum yes i get Cybercab and Optimus are coming. yes they will change the world. yes they will make Tesla the world's largest company by far. but it will take time for those earnings to materialize, and in the meantime, i'm worried the stock may be extremely volatile so to save my own stress and peace of mind i took what i needed to live for the next year off the table. these are the tough decisions you have to make when 100% of your assets are in ridiculously speculative things like Bitcoin, Tesla, SpaceX, etc and you never hold fiat cash part of me was very hesitant to post this because I strongly support Elon Musk , Tesla, and all the bulls who i've become close friends with in the community ( Farzad James Stephenson Tesla Owners Silicon Valley & so many more i can't remember right now). i truly love y'all and want to reiterate my support for the company has never wavered and i am still a proud Tesla shareholder spreading the truth about the company online, and in person. anyway. here's to ending my sappy post and keeping it real with y'all 💯% of the time. nothing in this post is financial advice, and i'm as bullish on $TSLA as ever longterm. so it sucks that i had to sell now. oh well. i hope my Tesla fam understands where I'm coming from. i'm up 20X on my position, and want to reiterate i'm still holding 90% of my shares and intend to for decades to come. hope ya'll can respect the transparency 🫶
6:36

this is the most bittersweet video i've ever posted 😢 today i sold 10% of my Tesla stock, while ironically, my belief in the company's long term potential is stronger than ever. long story short i need cash to pay some bills and rent for the next 6 months/year, and decided to take what i need off the table now, instead of waiting 90% of my personal assets are still invested in Elon Musk companies $TSLA + SpaceX so to say I'm still bullish would be an understatement lol but i cannot denounce my investing intuition. i think there is a strong probability of a continued pullback in Tesla shares as Department of Government Efficiency makes dramatic (but very necessary) changes to our government these effects will be felt across the world, and are resulting in ridiculous amounts of Elon Musk hate, which totally sucks. but my gut says it may impact sales, revenue and earnings in the short term at a $1T valuation with $100B in revenue and $10B in earnings we do not have a value/cashflow cushion to backstop the valuation from falling if wall street perceives weak sales momentum yes i get Cybercab and Optimus are coming. yes they will change the world. yes they will make Tesla the world's largest company by far. but it will take time for those earnings to materialize, and in the meantime, i'm worried the stock may be extremely volatile so to save my own stress and peace of mind i took what i needed to live for the next year off the table. these are the tough decisions you have to make when 100% of your assets are in ridiculously speculative things like Bitcoin, Tesla, SpaceX, etc and you never hold fiat cash part of me was very hesitant to post this because I strongly support Elon Musk , Tesla, and all the bulls who i've become close friends with in the community ( Farzad James Stephenson Tesla Owners Silicon Valley & so many more i can't remember right now). i truly love y'all and want to reiterate my support for the company has never wavered and i am still a proud Tesla shareholder spreading the truth about the company online, and in person. anyway. here's to ending my sappy post and keeping it real with y'all 💯% of the time. nothing in this post is financial advice, and i'm as bullish on $TSLA as ever longterm. so it sucks that i had to sell now. oh well. i hope my Tesla fam understands where I'm coming from. i'm up 20X on my position, and want to reiterate i'm still holding 90% of my shares and intend to for decades to come. hope ya'll can respect the transparency 🫶

Gali

254,833 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

📺 $TSLA HITS CRITICAL PIVOT: WHY $400 DECIDES THE NEXT BIG MOVE Please ❤️like and 🔁share with fellow Tesla traders/investors $TSLA has likely completed the first major upside leg from the $349.97 channel bottom into the expected resistance zone around $444.60 and the low $450 s. Now that it has been tested, #TSLA faces a major decision point between continuation higher or a deeper corrective phase. The bigger technical issue is that $TSLA is running directly into layered resistance in the low $450 s, including the important weekly descending channel resistance between $453.29 and $453.91. This resistance cluster could cap upside not just this week, but potentially through much of June. The recent rejection from that zone increases the probability that Tesla may spend the next several months trading in a wide range between the mid-$340s and the low-$450s rather than immediately breaking out into a new impulsive rally. * #Tesla is entering Tuesday under heavy pressure after closing Monday at $409.99, with the technical picture now centered around one critical pivot: $400.57 – the rising channel support. A close below it would likely confirm bearish continuation and trigger a move toward the next downside target at $381.49 within days. More importantly, losing $400.57 on a closing basis would strongly increase the odds that $TSLA eventually revisits the larger support zone around $349.97 sometime by late June or within the next 3–5 weeks. Tesla may need a deeper reset after becoming extended into major resistance. * “Soft resistance” sits at $422.00. Reclaiming it on a closing basis would fill a gap and potentially signal that the current selloff has exhausted itself. If $TSLA can recover and close back above $422 quickly, it would likely trigger a momentum reversal that could send the stock back toward the low-$450s within 3–5 trading days. * So, a close below $400.57, we have an accelerated downside toward $381.49 within days and higher probability of revisiting $349.97 over the next month or two. BUT a hold or reclaim of $400.57 and a close back above $422 would trigger a momentum reversal and lead to a retest of the low-$450s possible within days to a week. If Tesla can ultimately close a week above $453.91, it would mark a major breakout into a new long-term bullish phase. * So, $TSLA is now sitting at one of the most important technical inflection points it has faced in months. The stock has already completed the initial rally target from the March-April lows. Now the market must decide whether this is simply a pause before another breakout toward $540+, or the beginning of a larger corrective reset back toward the mid-$300s before the next major leg higher later in 2026. * Watch the full analysis for May 19, 2026 in this short video🔽
2:59

📺 $TSLA HITS CRITICAL PIVOT: WHY $400 DECIDES THE NEXT BIG MOVE Please ❤️like and 🔁share with fellow Tesla traders/investors $TSLA has likely completed the first major upside leg from the $349.97 channel bottom into the expected resistance zone around $444.60 and the low $450 s. Now that it has been tested, #TSLA faces a major decision point between continuation higher or a deeper corrective phase. The bigger technical issue is that $TSLA is running directly into layered resistance in the low $450 s, including the important weekly descending channel resistance between $453.29 and $453.91. This resistance cluster could cap upside not just this week, but potentially through much of June. The recent rejection from that zone increases the probability that Tesla may spend the next several months trading in a wide range between the mid-$340s and the low-$450s rather than immediately breaking out into a new impulsive rally. * #Tesla is entering Tuesday under heavy pressure after closing Monday at $409.99, with the technical picture now centered around one critical pivot: $400.57 – the rising channel support. A close below it would likely confirm bearish continuation and trigger a move toward the next downside target at $381.49 within days. More importantly, losing $400.57 on a closing basis would strongly increase the odds that $TSLA eventually revisits the larger support zone around $349.97 sometime by late June or within the next 3–5 weeks. Tesla may need a deeper reset after becoming extended into major resistance. * “Soft resistance” sits at $422.00. Reclaiming it on a closing basis would fill a gap and potentially signal that the current selloff has exhausted itself. If $TSLA can recover and close back above $422 quickly, it would likely trigger a momentum reversal that could send the stock back toward the low-$450s within 3–5 trading days. * So, a close below $400.57, we have an accelerated downside toward $381.49 within days and higher probability of revisiting $349.97 over the next month or two. BUT a hold or reclaim of $400.57 and a close back above $422 would trigger a momentum reversal and lead to a retest of the low-$450s possible within days to a week. If Tesla can ultimately close a week above $453.91, it would mark a major breakout into a new long-term bullish phase. * So, $TSLA is now sitting at one of the most important technical inflection points it has faced in months. The stock has already completed the initial rally target from the March-April lows. Now the market must decide whether this is simply a pause before another breakout toward $540+, or the beginning of a larger corrective reset back toward the mid-$300s before the next major leg higher later in 2026. * Watch the full analysis for May 19, 2026 in this short video🔽

Wicked Stocks

14,691 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

GOLD TO TEST 200 DAY MA: THE PRECISE SILVER BUY SIGNAL AHEAD Jordan Roy-Byrne: The recent ugly week in precious metals wasn't a surprise. But now the real focus shifts to timing the next bottom with precision using history, technicals and sentiment. This intermediate correction still has room to run — and that's creating a high-conviction setup for the biggest buying opportunity. THE HISTORIC PATTERN ✅ Gold's post-breakout corrections follow a reliable script from past cycles like 1972-74 and 2005-08. ➡️ The current move mirrors those exactly, but we're only about two months in while averages last five months. 🔥 Gold always tests its rising 200-day moving average after major breakouts. SILVER'S LEVERAGED OPPORTUNITY ✅ Silver explodes higher precisely when gold hits that 200 DMA level after corrections. ➡️ Expect silver to test $70 or even $64 first amid relative weakness before the rebound. ⚡ Gold remains the leader while silver and stocks get hit harder — classic correction behavior. THE CONTRARIAN SIGNALS ✅ Watch COT data — speculators are selling positions aggressively toward 20,000 contracts. ➡️ Public sentiment bulls down to 64% and falling more — this is exactly what we want. 💡 Less selling power left means smart money steps in at the bottom. THE BULLISH RATIO STORY ✅ Gold versus stocks broke out from a 12-year base and holds key support at 0.65-0.68. ➡️ Signals major capital rotation from stocks into precious metals ahead. 📈 Gold stocks versus stocks and the 60/40 portfolio also broke out long-term despite short-term weakness. THE MINERS SETUP ✅ GDX strong support near $86-87, GDXJ around $114-115. ➡️ Breadth at oversold levels — percentage above 50DMA will hit 25% or lower at the true bottom. 🔄 Short-term ugly weekly candles but this sets up for big winners. THE BOTTOM LINE This correction is healthy and needed in a powerful bull market. Monitor these historical, technical and sentiment signals closely to pick the bottom with precision. Stay patient and buy the weakness — the second half of the year sets up for much bigger moves in gold, silver and mining stocks.👉 HT: Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA ⛏⛏ YouTube TheDailyGold #Gold #Silver #PreciousMetals #MiningStocks #BullMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #ContrarianInvesting
1:02

GOLD TO TEST 200 DAY MA: THE PRECISE SILVER BUY SIGNAL AHEAD Jordan Roy-Byrne: The recent ugly week in precious metals wasn't a surprise. But now the real focus shifts to timing the next bottom with precision using history, technicals and sentiment. This intermediate correction still has room to run — and that's creating a high-conviction setup for the biggest buying opportunity. THE HISTORIC PATTERN ✅ Gold's post-breakout corrections follow a reliable script from past cycles like 1972-74 and 2005-08. ➡️ The current move mirrors those exactly, but we're only about two months in while averages last five months. 🔥 Gold always tests its rising 200-day moving average after major breakouts. SILVER'S LEVERAGED OPPORTUNITY ✅ Silver explodes higher precisely when gold hits that 200 DMA level after corrections. ➡️ Expect silver to test $70 or even $64 first amid relative weakness before the rebound. ⚡ Gold remains the leader while silver and stocks get hit harder — classic correction behavior. THE CONTRARIAN SIGNALS ✅ Watch COT data — speculators are selling positions aggressively toward 20,000 contracts. ➡️ Public sentiment bulls down to 64% and falling more — this is exactly what we want. 💡 Less selling power left means smart money steps in at the bottom. THE BULLISH RATIO STORY ✅ Gold versus stocks broke out from a 12-year base and holds key support at 0.65-0.68. ➡️ Signals major capital rotation from stocks into precious metals ahead. 📈 Gold stocks versus stocks and the 60/40 portfolio also broke out long-term despite short-term weakness. THE MINERS SETUP ✅ GDX strong support near $86-87, GDXJ around $114-115. ➡️ Breadth at oversold levels — percentage above 50DMA will hit 25% or lower at the true bottom. 🔄 Short-term ugly weekly candles but this sets up for big winners. THE BOTTOM LINE This correction is healthy and needed in a powerful bull market. Monitor these historical, technical and sentiment signals closely to pick the bottom with precision. Stay patient and buy the weakness — the second half of the year sets up for much bigger moves in gold, silver and mining stocks.👉 HT: Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA ⛏⛏ YouTube TheDailyGold #Gold #Silver #PreciousMetals #MiningStocks #BullMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #ContrarianInvesting

Mark

38,234 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

If you want to understand Asian geopolitics today, this is an absolute must-watch. This is George Yeo, who was a Singaporean cabinet minister during 21 years, including Minister for Foreign Affairs during 7 years. In my humble opinion, very few people out there have such a subtle understanding of geopolitics in Asia as he does. Here's a quick summary of what he says: The US has little knowledge of China He says that "the US political system is decentralized and because of the need to win votes, it goes through emotional phases and is entering such a phase now where China is demonized out of mass emotion. There's some manipulation behind the scenes, but it's not based on knowledge." To him, the US "don't understand the nature of China", the fact that China "is constantly building walls around itself because it is happy in its own homogeneity". He says it is wrong for the US to believe that "China wants to displace them as the top dog in the world" and "trying to contain China, even pull it down" as a result. Not only is this a wrong understanding of China's objectives but the US "may exhaust itself in the process and I don't think it will succeed". He says that with its tariffs and sanctions the US risks making the same mistake as China's Qing dynasty and "become very weak". He believes the primacy of the US dollar will break, and that US actions are "bringing forward that day" He says that "the key event will be when the primacy of the US dollar breaks. We all know it's going to break sometime or other because it's abnormal. If it is 30 years from now, well, let's drink and be merry. But if it's five years, well, we've got to calculate, right? Do we know when the cookie will crumble? We don't know. But the way the US is moving is bringing forward that day." It's "bringing forward that day" because "they try to control countries by sanctions" and as a result more and more countries put counter-measures in place, putting themselves out of the grasp of the US. China is not in trouble and "overcapacity" is "information warfare" He says "there's information warfare against China" and that he "doesn't think" China is in trouble. "Look at the factories, look at the EVs, look at how terrified the Europeans are, accusing China of having overcapacity. I mean, how can you blame China for overcapacity when you have, when you're taking liberties with yourself, having long summers and working short hours and you say no, no, no, no, no, you are working too hard! There are consequences. If families take liberties with their children, with themselves, there's consequences." He believes that Asian societies' "wholesomeness" is an advantage versus the West "Look at Asia, look at China, look at Southeast Asia, look at India. There are people who are hardworking, who are obsessed over their children, who want to have of them a higher education, in order that the kids will have a better education, better health, a better life. [...] They'll do well and we're lucky to be in the part of the world where strange values have not taken over societies. [...] Why is America such a big market for drugs today? And I was watching the Eurovision contest... [...] Parts of it, almost satanic. But it's now part of the fashion in most of Europe. What is happening? PM Lee talked about how we should keep all these woke things away from us as much as possible. I fully agree with him. Keep our societies wholesome. Keep our families intact. I mean, AI is very important, but AI cannot answer moral questions for us. In the end, it is every individual, every child who must make the choice. Be immersed in technology. Make use of it. But have our own sense of what it means to be a human being. So if we use that as a template to judge human society, I say we are very lucky to be in a part of the world where society is by and large wholesome and will do well." It's critical for ASEAN to stick together and not be balkanized, which is what the US is trying to do with the Philippines "If we [ASEAN] don't stick together, we'll be balkanized and instead of becoming neighbours, become clients of big powers. Instead of using them, they make use of us. There's always a threat. Look at the Philippines now. The Philippines have legitimate disputes with China. Both sides have their cases. The Americans see an opportunity there. And jump in, and bring in the Japanese. And now Philippine politics is caught up in this [...] [China and the Philippines] had an agreement, a gentleman's agreement with Duterte, which Marcos has repudiated. So OK, so they must find a new way to equilibrium. And make use of the Americans and not be made use of by the Americans. But it's very difficult when you try to make use of a big power, you end up being made use of by them." Most countries in ASEAN do not want China to be an enemy For instance he says "Vietnam has made a very important decision to go with China": "it was not well reported, but Vietnam has agreed that Hanoi will be linked to Kunming and Nanning by high-speed rail. This is big because each connection is tens of billions of dollars. And will change the topological configuration of logistics and supply chain and human movement for decades to come." Same with Indonesia, noting that "Prabowo's first visit [was] to China" and that when he met Xi Jinping "it was Xiao Di talking to Da Ge. A little brother talking to big brother. But when we went to Japan, then it's brother talking to brother." He adds: "Look at the other countries, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Brunei. No one wants China to be an enemy. And the Americans don't understand this, yet. That because China is getting bigger and bigger for us, all of us want the Americans to be in the room. But if the Americans say no, you have to choose between China and us, then they say no, we can't. How can we choose? I mean, China is where our bread is buttered, you know."
16:36

If you want to understand Asian geopolitics today, this is an absolute must-watch. This is George Yeo, who was a Singaporean cabinet minister during 21 years, including Minister for Foreign Affairs during 7 years. In my humble opinion, very few people out there have such a subtle understanding of geopolitics in Asia as he does. Here's a quick summary of what he says: The US has little knowledge of China He says that "the US political system is decentralized and because of the need to win votes, it goes through emotional phases and is entering such a phase now where China is demonized out of mass emotion. There's some manipulation behind the scenes, but it's not based on knowledge." To him, the US "don't understand the nature of China", the fact that China "is constantly building walls around itself because it is happy in its own homogeneity". He says it is wrong for the US to believe that "China wants to displace them as the top dog in the world" and "trying to contain China, even pull it down" as a result. Not only is this a wrong understanding of China's objectives but the US "may exhaust itself in the process and I don't think it will succeed". He says that with its tariffs and sanctions the US risks making the same mistake as China's Qing dynasty and "become very weak". He believes the primacy of the US dollar will break, and that US actions are "bringing forward that day" He says that "the key event will be when the primacy of the US dollar breaks. We all know it's going to break sometime or other because it's abnormal. If it is 30 years from now, well, let's drink and be merry. But if it's five years, well, we've got to calculate, right? Do we know when the cookie will crumble? We don't know. But the way the US is moving is bringing forward that day." It's "bringing forward that day" because "they try to control countries by sanctions" and as a result more and more countries put counter-measures in place, putting themselves out of the grasp of the US. China is not in trouble and "overcapacity" is "information warfare" He says "there's information warfare against China" and that he "doesn't think" China is in trouble. "Look at the factories, look at the EVs, look at how terrified the Europeans are, accusing China of having overcapacity. I mean, how can you blame China for overcapacity when you have, when you're taking liberties with yourself, having long summers and working short hours and you say no, no, no, no, no, you are working too hard! There are consequences. If families take liberties with their children, with themselves, there's consequences." He believes that Asian societies' "wholesomeness" is an advantage versus the West "Look at Asia, look at China, look at Southeast Asia, look at India. There are people who are hardworking, who are obsessed over their children, who want to have of them a higher education, in order that the kids will have a better education, better health, a better life. [...] They'll do well and we're lucky to be in the part of the world where strange values have not taken over societies. [...] Why is America such a big market for drugs today? And I was watching the Eurovision contest... [...] Parts of it, almost satanic. But it's now part of the fashion in most of Europe. What is happening? PM Lee talked about how we should keep all these woke things away from us as much as possible. I fully agree with him. Keep our societies wholesome. Keep our families intact. I mean, AI is very important, but AI cannot answer moral questions for us. In the end, it is every individual, every child who must make the choice. Be immersed in technology. Make use of it. But have our own sense of what it means to be a human being. So if we use that as a template to judge human society, I say we are very lucky to be in a part of the world where society is by and large wholesome and will do well." It's critical for ASEAN to stick together and not be balkanized, which is what the US is trying to do with the Philippines "If we [ASEAN] don't stick together, we'll be balkanized and instead of becoming neighbours, become clients of big powers. Instead of using them, they make use of us. There's always a threat. Look at the Philippines now. The Philippines have legitimate disputes with China. Both sides have their cases. The Americans see an opportunity there. And jump in, and bring in the Japanese. And now Philippine politics is caught up in this [...] [China and the Philippines] had an agreement, a gentleman's agreement with Duterte, which Marcos has repudiated. So OK, so they must find a new way to equilibrium. And make use of the Americans and not be made use of by the Americans. But it's very difficult when you try to make use of a big power, you end up being made use of by them." Most countries in ASEAN do not want China to be an enemy For instance he says "Vietnam has made a very important decision to go with China": "it was not well reported, but Vietnam has agreed that Hanoi will be linked to Kunming and Nanning by high-speed rail. This is big because each connection is tens of billions of dollars. And will change the topological configuration of logistics and supply chain and human movement for decades to come." Same with Indonesia, noting that "Prabowo's first visit [was] to China" and that when he met Xi Jinping "it was Xiao Di talking to Da Ge. A little brother talking to big brother. But when we went to Japan, then it's brother talking to brother." He adds: "Look at the other countries, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, Brunei. No one wants China to be an enemy. And the Americans don't understand this, yet. That because China is getting bigger and bigger for us, all of us want the Americans to be in the room. But if the Americans say no, you have to choose between China and us, then they say no, we can't. How can we choose? I mean, China is where our bread is buttered, you know."

Arnaud Bertrand

1,026,051 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

SILVER WAR IGNITES: CHINA'S EXPORT BANS SPARK GLOBAL CRISIS Andreas Ullmann, with over 30 years in finance analyzing hedge fund strategies and serving as Vice President Sales at Solidgruppe—a leading German precious metals trading firm—delivers hard-hitting insights on the escalating silver conflict: The world is witnessing the dawn of a fierce global silver war, mirroring China's past dominance in rare earths. THE CORE THESIS: SILVER AS A STRATEGIC WEAPON ✅ China has slapped export restrictions on silver since January 2026, limiting it to just 44 companies and slashing global supply by up to 5,000 tons annually. ➡️ This echoes their rare earth playbook, using shortages to exert political pressure while protecting domestic industries like solar and EVs. ➡️ Meanwhile, USA declares silver a critical metal, allocating $2.5 billion for stockpiling and securing Latin American mines to counter China's moves. THE CRITICAL SHORTAGE UNFOLDS ➡️ Shanghai stocks crashed from 7,500 tons in 2020 to just 800 tons now—a 90% drop—with COMEX deliveries surging to 480 million ounces in 2025 alone. ➡️ Industrial demand outstrips mining output by years of deficits, fueled by solar, 5G, AI, and military tech, where silver is irreplaceable. 🤯 "We are already in the middle of a silver war," warns expert Ullmann, as both superpowers race to lock in supplies via contracts and investments. PRICE PROJECTIONS THAT STUN 📈 Short-term: Expect silver to hit $150–$180 by end-2026 if inventories keep draining and investment demand stays hot. 💥 Long-term: With gold racing to $10,000 by 2030, silver could explode to $1,000 based on a 1:10 ratio, driven by mining realities and vanishing above-ground stocks. 🔍 Technical charts show a 45-year cup-and-handle breakout, targeting $300–$350 in coming years amid high volatility. INVESTOR STRATEGIES AMID THE CHAOS 🚀 Focus on physical silver and gold for core holdings—store securely outside banks to avoid systemic risks. ➡️ Mix in mining stocks for outsized gains, as they're undervalued with exploding profits at higher prices, but diversify to manage risks. ➡️ Consider platinum too—trading at historic lows vs. silver, it offers massive upside in fuel cells and catalysts. THE BOTTOM LINE In this escalating silver war, prices will solve the deficit through sky-high surges, rewarding those who act now. Seize the opportunity before the squeeze turns into a full-blown crisis—your future wealth depends on it. HT: YouTube Rohstoff Investor #SilverWar #SilverSqueeze #CommodityBoom #GoldSilverRatio #ResourceGeopolitics #MiningStocks #PreciousMetals
1:35

SILVER WAR IGNITES: CHINA'S EXPORT BANS SPARK GLOBAL CRISIS Andreas Ullmann, with over 30 years in finance analyzing hedge fund strategies and serving as Vice President Sales at Solidgruppe—a leading German precious metals trading firm—delivers hard-hitting insights on the escalating silver conflict: The world is witnessing the dawn of a fierce global silver war, mirroring China's past dominance in rare earths. THE CORE THESIS: SILVER AS A STRATEGIC WEAPON ✅ China has slapped export restrictions on silver since January 2026, limiting it to just 44 companies and slashing global supply by up to 5,000 tons annually. ➡️ This echoes their rare earth playbook, using shortages to exert political pressure while protecting domestic industries like solar and EVs. ➡️ Meanwhile, USA declares silver a critical metal, allocating $2.5 billion for stockpiling and securing Latin American mines to counter China's moves. THE CRITICAL SHORTAGE UNFOLDS ➡️ Shanghai stocks crashed from 7,500 tons in 2020 to just 800 tons now—a 90% drop—with COMEX deliveries surging to 480 million ounces in 2025 alone. ➡️ Industrial demand outstrips mining output by years of deficits, fueled by solar, 5G, AI, and military tech, where silver is irreplaceable. 🤯 "We are already in the middle of a silver war," warns expert Ullmann, as both superpowers race to lock in supplies via contracts and investments. PRICE PROJECTIONS THAT STUN 📈 Short-term: Expect silver to hit $150–$180 by end-2026 if inventories keep draining and investment demand stays hot. 💥 Long-term: With gold racing to $10,000 by 2030, silver could explode to $1,000 based on a 1:10 ratio, driven by mining realities and vanishing above-ground stocks. 🔍 Technical charts show a 45-year cup-and-handle breakout, targeting $300–$350 in coming years amid high volatility. INVESTOR STRATEGIES AMID THE CHAOS 🚀 Focus on physical silver and gold for core holdings—store securely outside banks to avoid systemic risks. ➡️ Mix in mining stocks for outsized gains, as they're undervalued with exploding profits at higher prices, but diversify to manage risks. ➡️ Consider platinum too—trading at historic lows vs. silver, it offers massive upside in fuel cells and catalysts. THE BOTTOM LINE In this escalating silver war, prices will solve the deficit through sky-high surges, rewarding those who act now. Seize the opportunity before the squeeze turns into a full-blown crisis—your future wealth depends on it. HT: YouTube Rohstoff Investor #SilverWar #SilverSqueeze #CommodityBoom #GoldSilverRatio #ResourceGeopolitics #MiningStocks #PreciousMetals

Mark

64,769 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

$GRAB long term shareholders should expect massive amount of new traders gonna come out and declare $50 or $100 next month/year Grab in the coming weeks/months! I'm not going to participate on that. I knew my call on the fall to break was bold, but it is doing exactly that(we are 12 days in the fall). I also think it is possible to get $1B quarter revenue by Q4 2025(currently at 50% odd). Most should only focus on fundamental. My DDs are available to search with my Mike at the cost of free.99. I do expect a wave of retail investors hype on this as the "tamer" already done with its core position. Short interest should move down slowly to avoid spike on unrealized loss for them. Will update new SI data when it is available. We should also move to $40B market cap fairly quickly, and I believe that is a fair valuation relative to its cash and potential(Around $10). 2025-2026 Grab will focus resources on GrabMart, GrabDrone, GrabFin, GrabUnlimited. More R&D spending to be expected as B2B solutions are intended to generate revenue. I will write another thread of "secret sauce" on B2B front as we get more color in Q3 Q4. It should be similar to B2C, "Customer obsession over competition". I dislike hype on my long term, but it does happen very often. I want a healthy and constructive community on $GRAB. I really don't want to hear pump and dump here. If you are trading $GRAB, have a clear exit strategy. I'm also ready to hear your bear thesis, and keep it respectful. Alright, that is it. Have a great weekend folks! Not Financial Advice!
3:53

$GRAB long term shareholders should expect massive amount of new traders gonna come out and declare $50 or $100 next month/year Grab in the coming weeks/months! I'm not going to participate on that. I knew my call on the fall to break was bold, but it is doing exactly that(we are 12 days in the fall). I also think it is possible to get $1B quarter revenue by Q4 2025(currently at 50% odd). Most should only focus on fundamental. My DDs are available to search with my Mike at the cost of free.99. I do expect a wave of retail investors hype on this as the "tamer" already done with its core position. Short interest should move down slowly to avoid spike on unrealized loss for them. Will update new SI data when it is available. We should also move to $40B market cap fairly quickly, and I believe that is a fair valuation relative to its cash and potential(Around $10). 2025-2026 Grab will focus resources on GrabMart, GrabDrone, GrabFin, GrabUnlimited. More R&D spending to be expected as B2B solutions are intended to generate revenue. I will write another thread of "secret sauce" on B2B front as we get more color in Q3 Q4. It should be similar to B2C, "Customer obsession over competition". I dislike hype on my long term, but it does happen very often. I want a healthy and constructive community on $GRAB. I really don't want to hear pump and dump here. If you are trading $GRAB, have a clear exit strategy. I'm also ready to hear your bear thesis, and keep it respectful. Alright, that is it. Have a great weekend folks! Not Financial Advice!

Mike

119,905 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

Longtime $TSLA bear Craig Irwin, from Roth Capital, who has frequently appeared on CNBC to speak negatively about Tesla, just raised his $TSLA price target by a whopping 347% to $380 (from $85). For years, he had called Tesla "egregiously overvalued." Now, he has a BUY rating on the stock. Here's what he said today about Tesla: "This quarter is probably the last quarter of relative weakness; Now he (Elon) has got a new pool of buyers. Conservatives that might not have looked at EVs quite as closely in the past that allow an acceleration of demand in the core U.S. market; I don't see very many negative catalysts. There are abundant positive catalysts. Bias is now to the upside. The market cap may be huge, but they are doing big things." On FSD he says: "Where I need to look at things a little differently than how I did previously is we look at the incremental solution for FSD and the incremental solutions for robtoaxis. The use of Lidar is not long term sustainable because of the cost. It's something that does need to come out of the (Waymo) vehicles over the long term. As I've talked to more of the engineers involved in these different projects, I've learned that there's often two or three teleoperation engineers. Basically human operators there to catch something that goes wrong. Tesla even started hiring teleoperation engineers last week. Tesla is not going to do any worse than Waymo. If they're more intently focused on an optical only solution, I think competing at the edge, some of this technology that's being brought to bring down the energy consumption for the computer is something that Tesla is going to be more adept at. I think they're a real contender in the long run." On Cyberacb he said: "We're going to see incremental progress and people are going to be able to have a tangible experience, and that's what I think drives value in the stock and drives enthusiasm to own the stock."
4:10

Longtime $TSLA bear Craig Irwin, from Roth Capital, who has frequently appeared on CNBC to speak negatively about Tesla, just raised his $TSLA price target by a whopping 347% to $380 (from $85). For years, he had called Tesla "egregiously overvalued." Now, he has a BUY rating on the stock. Here's what he said today about Tesla: "This quarter is probably the last quarter of relative weakness; Now he (Elon) has got a new pool of buyers. Conservatives that might not have looked at EVs quite as closely in the past that allow an acceleration of demand in the core U.S. market; I don't see very many negative catalysts. There are abundant positive catalysts. Bias is now to the upside. The market cap may be huge, but they are doing big things." On FSD he says: "Where I need to look at things a little differently than how I did previously is we look at the incremental solution for FSD and the incremental solutions for robtoaxis. The use of Lidar is not long term sustainable because of the cost. It's something that does need to come out of the (Waymo) vehicles over the long term. As I've talked to more of the engineers involved in these different projects, I've learned that there's often two or three teleoperation engineers. Basically human operators there to catch something that goes wrong. Tesla even started hiring teleoperation engineers last week. Tesla is not going to do any worse than Waymo. If they're more intently focused on an optical only solution, I think competing at the edge, some of this technology that's being brought to bring down the energy consumption for the computer is something that Tesla is going to be more adept at. I think they're a real contender in the long run." On Cyberacb he said: "We're going to see incremental progress and people are going to be able to have a tangible experience, and that's what I think drives value in the stock and drives enthusiasm to own the stock."

Sawyer Merritt

679,724 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr