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Data has always been the bottleneck for physical AI in self driving and robotics. Tesla is taking two very different approaches for FSD and Optimus. Tesla’s Optimus Training Playbook: 1. Build 30k Optimus Gen 3 robots 2. Operate them in a mock environment where they can perform self-play “Optimus Academy” 3. Train in sim using the real robot data to close sim2real gap. Tesla FSD Training Playbook: 1. Sell millions of cars outfitted with cheap cameras 2. Collect diverse real world driving data (especially intervention and failure recovery data) for free as a byproduct of customers driving the cars. 3. Use driving data to train Autopilot/FSD and deploy policies incrementally as a supervised FSD product 4. Repeat until policy reaches robust unsupervised full self driving for robotaxi launch. The Tesla FSD playbook is a beautiful self-funding, customer subsidized, diverse real world data flywheel. The Optimus playbook is the opposite and shares none of the beautiful attributes of the FSD training flywheel that made FSD successful. The key differences: 1. Instead of having customers pay you for vehicles, Tesla will need to fund 30,000 Optimus robots. Assuming the current landed cost per unit is $100k, that will be $3B to build plus another ~30% per year for maintenance labor and spare parts given it’s still an unhardened pre-production prototype is another $900M per year. For reference, Tesla’s GAAP net income in 2025 was $3.8B. 2. Instead of having customers drive their Teslas on roads all across the world giving Tesla an insanely rich and diverse dataset that Waymo and other AV companies could never collect, the Optimus Academy is doing the equivalent of building a fake town in a parking lot and driving their car in that parking lot. No matter how real you try to make the environments for self-play you can never replicate the diversity, complexity and failure modes of the real world. Data collected in staged environments produces demo-grade policies and will not be rich enough to generalize to the vast diversity of environments, tasks, objects, etc. out of distribution. 3. Instead of having customers collect real world failure recovery data (DAgger style) for free every time FSD disengages, the Optimus Academy will need paid teleoperators or onsite operators to collect the recovery data. Assuming 1 person can manage 2 robots to start that would cost $3.5B in labor per year (30,000 robots, $40/hr fully loaded, 16 hrs/day, 365 days per year, 2:1 robot:operator). Tesla can come up with the money to do this but money doesn’t solve the “mock data” problem. Given the higher degrees of freedom in humanoids vs. cars, training a generalized humanoid will be harder and require more data than a self-driving vehicle. The best way to train your robot is by deploying them in the diverse real world, subsidized by real customer operations. Humanoids face a chicken and egg where it’s very hard to bootstrap your way to a first policy that’s good enough to deploy in real production environments. This is an extremely capital intensive playbook (which doesn’t even include cost of training). Time will tell if it works but a better playbook would be finding a way to copy the FSD playbook.

Simon Kalouche

34,671 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

Blog 52 🚨 Frank health update 🚨 Today, Frank and I went for our 32nd consecutive walk. We thought this would be a good milestone to review Frank’s health progress. Since we’ve started walking (32 days): ◦Weight loss: 361 down from 372 ◦Steps per day: 13K per day up from 5K per day ◦Sugar levels: Reached and maintained staying in “Green Zone” for two weeks going (was RARELY ever in green zone before) ◦Belt: Frank was forced to buy a new tighter belt ◦Energy: Frank feels improved daily energy ◦Stamina: Walks continue to increase in distance and pace with decreasing breaks ◦Pacing to lose 100-150 pounds in next 12 months This update is great, but it is only the start. The keys are consistency and enjoying the process to make the lifestyle change sustainable. You can tell from the video that Frank is not even close to satisfied. Frank once weighed 500 pounds and had a waist size of 69. He is unflappable in his commitment of never going back. Everyone’s encouragement has been absolute rocket fuel. Thank you, Tank’s Army. Today we did walk 32 at the St. Peter’s church in the rain. Frank’s Great Grand Mudder is buried there. The weather made it tough but we powered through and even stopped by Staples to hit our step count. We are now back at Frank’s and we are getting ready to watch the Dolphins and then head to the Devils game. It is a chaotic day. Thank you again to everyone supporting Frank as he pushes himself everyday to get healthier. It feels like we are all in it togedder. Anyone struggling to get a new routine going, try going for 1 walk and building from there. Rome wasn’t built in a day and something is always better than nothing. Thank you MikeyBets for coming up with this idea and pushing me to get us going. Anudder ♾️ days of walks 😤 coming right up.

Matteo Piper Jenks 🧲 🇮🇹

3,629,186 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce

10 years ago, Tim Ferriss walked into Google & revealed exactly how to cage the monkey mind that is destroying your life every passing day: 1. The real training is in the small embarrassments. We do not rise to the level of our hopes. We fall to the level of our training. If you cannot handle small moments of public embarrassment you will not have the backbone to make big decisions under real pressure. 2. Seneca practiced poverty once a month. He would wear rough clothing, eat the simplest food, and ask himself is this the condition I so feared. Tim does one three day water fast every month and one seven to ten day fast every quarter for the same reason. Once you know the worst case is survivable you stop fearing it. 3. The monkey mind is not a dialogue. It is a stern and irritating roommate in your head that never shuts up. The morning journal is not about producing writing. It is about giving that roommate a two dimensional prison so it stops playing on repeat for the rest of the day. 4. The Five Minute Journal takes two and a half minutes in the morning and two and a half at night. The morning portion is a gratitude and planning exercise. The evening portion is a performance review. The ROI on those five minutes is higher than almost anything else Tim does. 5. Depression is an obsession with the past. Anxiety is an obsession with the future. High achievers almost always skew toward anxious future focus. Without a deliberate gratitude practice they hit goal after goal and feel nothing because they are already racing toward the next one. 6. The single biggest difference between the top quartile of performers and the top one percent is the degree to which they can identify their goals and maintain focus on them. Everything else is secondary to that one thing. 7. Humility does not require willpower. It requires designing the right environment. Every day Tim tries to be the weakest person in the room at something. At 15 in Japan he thought he was a judo star until a guy forty pounds lighter destroyed him in seven seconds. Then he trained at a school that produced Olympic gold medalists and got demolished by twelve year olds for months. He came out the other end completely transformed. 8. More than eighty percent of the world class performers Tim has interviewed across every field have a daily meditation practice. Some do not call it meditation but they all have something that functions the same way. Amelia Boone, the greatest female obstacle racer alive, sings the same song to herself on loop for hours. Arnold Schwarzenegger did transcendental meditation for a year and said the benefits persisted for decades after he stopped. 9. A high percentage of the successful men Tim has interviewed over fifty skip breakfast entirely. Pavel Tsatsouline, the man who brought kettlebells to America, answered what did you have for breakfast with a single word. Coffee. 10. What matters is not having a specific routine. It is having a routine. Whatever it is. The goal is to preserve your decision making and creativity for the things that actually require them. Steve Jobs wore the same thing every day. That was not a fashion choice. It was an energy allocation strategy. 11. Tim treats his entire life as two week experiments and six month projects. A reliable five year plan almost by definition requires you to set goals below your current capabilities. He is unwilling to do that so he does not plan that way. 12. The most successful people he has interviewed are not naive optimists. They budget for the downside. Richard Branson's real skill is figuring out the maximum he can lose and the maximum time he can lose before committing to anything. Once you realize the worst case is reversible the risk disappears. 13. The podcast succeeded because Tim knew he had a guaranteed audience of one. He was building something he could not find anywhere else. Every book came from the same place. When designing for a market things fail. When solving his own problem things work. 14. He committed to doing six podcast episodes before deciding whether to continue. If you only do one you will quit. The learning curve does not hockey stick until at least six. The survival of the project depended entirely on that pre-commitment. 15. Email is not a priority system it is other people's priority system for your time. Tim batches email offline so he is not doing whack-a-mole where sending two emails generates five back. He also uses if-then lines in every email he sends. It takes thirty extra seconds and eliminates twenty rounds of back and forth. 16. Never attribute to malice what you can attribute to incompetence or busyness. Holding a grudge about someone not replying means you are carrying imaginary shrapnel like acid in a vessel. You are the only one harmed by it. 17. For longevity Tim does regular extended fasting to purge precancerous cells combined with hyperbaric oxygen at two and a half atmospheres three times a week. By forty almost everyone has precancerous cells. The goal is not uncontrolled growth and fasting addresses the metabolic conditions that allow that. 18. For insomnia the two things that helped him most were morning meditation to quiet the machinery before the day starts and reading fiction before bed to shift from problem solving mode into story consuming mode. The monkey mind cannot solve problems it does not know it is supposed to be solving. Follow Yasmine Khosrowshahi for more ideas on thinking better, becoming clearer & building a more intentional life.

Yasmine Khosrowshahi

194,181 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

My wife, Aditi Malhotra Chaturvedi, is a Judge Most people who know us, know how madly proud I am of her. But all of that pride comes at a cost .. I also, unfortunately, need reminders to “understand” the meaning of why she does what she does, while bearing all that she has to in that process So kudos to the makers of #MaamlaLegalHai on Netflix, a satirical show that depicts in each of the 8 episodes courtroom highlights beyond the courtroom that’re lifted straight up from real incidents, bound by a central narrative around some super endearing characters in VD Tyagi, Ananya Shroff, Sujata, Munshi Ji, PP Saab, & others. It’s a kickass show that anyone and everyone will love, for its humour and emotion, & yet, it shows so much of the “judiciary”, so much of how one of the most important pillars of our country operates, with incredible detail Sharing two clips from the last episode, which made Aditi’s eyes tad bit wet, and my chest swell each bit of those 56 inches. I realise though that I can do better than just feeling this pride. It isn’t easy in first place. We see each other not more than 5-6 days in a month. We are not able to be with each other on days good and bad, when ‘that magical hug’ would have meant everything. We give up a lot. Rather, she gives up a lot. Driven by some unknown force, a deep-rooted emotion to do “justice” I live in a world where everything is simplified, productised, incentivised, and even then “motivations” aren’t easy to build. And on the other hand, is this world. Somewhere in a remote corner with remote amenities. With no line of sight on pay, incentives, promotions etc. With no team engagement, no offsites, no ESOPs, no awards. Yet, mad work ethic. Yet, passion to play every day, every hour, with your everything. Yet, a commitment to sacrifice your prime to serve others. I keep wondering what she’s made up of .. There is a life she leads inside the courtroom. Which I have had a chance to “witness” a few times. Just about always manages to send chills down my spines. And there is a life that she leads outside it. Half a day / long train ride away. Where she works incredibly hard again to make everyone ‘feel her presence’ in fullness To be able to do “justice” in your own life, with your own people, while putting yourself out there, is an unbelievable feat that goes unnoticed and uncelebrated .. Every Monday morning when she heads back, we all (including Buzo) remain a bit numb for a few hours … and then life catches up. Waiting for the next opportunity to see each other, hold each other, laugh with each other, cry with each other, just “be” with each other. Which also always makes us feel very ‘grateful’ for whatever time we get. My job doesn’t help. But I try. She tries harder. We make it work. Having been in love since forever helps .. Few weeks back, when Aditi’s dad was in the ICU, she rushed back late in the night only to head back right next morning on that 6 am train. I asked her on the platform that morning if it was necessary to go, and she said a hundred people, across age groups, were waiting for “justice”, and even a single day missed means these ‘files’ which translates to “human lives” get pushed by 5-6 months, such is the sheer volume of litigation in our country’s courts Like the series pretty well shows, a great number of times, what happens inside the court affects. Even as I write in the moment, I am rubbing my temples, shaking my head in disbelief, as I recall the absolute horrid state of criminal and civil suits I’ve seen play out. She’s become thicker with time, you don’t have a choice, but a lot of these cases, when I narrate them in my founder/VC/tech brethren, almost a cent percent are shell-shocked and don’t relate to this India But here we are :) As obsessed as I am with what I do for a living, I realise in moments like these that part of my diktat in this life is to help Aditi win, and do better, for the millions that are invisible to the India that I serve ..

Akshay Chaturvedi

140,883 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce

🚨 NEWSOM’S INNER CIRCLE IMPLODES: Ex-Chief of Staff GUILTY in $225K Campaign Money-Laundering & Luxury Tax Heist—While Californians Get Fleeced! ☠️ CALIFORNIA’S CORRUPTION RECKONING JUST HIT MACHIAVELLIAN HEIGHTS: Newsom’s Former Chief of Staff Dana Williamson Pleads Guilty to Orchestrating a $225K Campaign Heist & Million-Dollar Tax Scam In the gilded corridors of Sacramento power, where public service supposedly meets the public good, the rule of law has delivered a scholarly gut-punch straight from the Federalist Papers: unchecked ambition breeds corruption, and elites always feast first. Yesterday, May 14, 2026, Dana Williamson—Gavin Newsom’s chief of staff in 2022 and again through 2024, a longtime Sacramento power broker and top advisor to Xavier Becerra—stood in federal court and pled guilty to three felony counts: conspiracy to commit bank and wire fraud, subscribing to a false tax return, and making false statements to the FBI. This wasn’t some rogue aide’s slip-up. Prosecutors say Williamson was the ringleader in a scheme that quietly siphoned $225,000 from a dormant campaign account tied to Becerra (now a frontrunner for California governor). The money? Funneled for her personal expenses while she simultaneously claimed over $1 million in fraudulent business deductions—Chanel and Fendi luxury goods, home HVAC upgrades, and a jaw-dropping $150,000+ birthday blowout in Mexico. All while serving at the highest levels of state power. Two co-conspirators—Becerra’s former chief of staff Sean McCluskie and lobbyist Greg Campbell—had already cut deals. Williamson now owes roughly $500,000 in restitution to the IRS under her plea. Think about it: While everyday Californians grind under sky-high taxes, housing costs, and crumbling infrastructure, the inner circle treated campaign coffers and tax code like personal ATMs. This is elite capture in its purest form—precisely the kind of “public choice” failure economists and political philosophers have warned about for centuries. Newsom called it “just wrong” and claims zero knowledge. Of course. But when your own chief of staff is indicted on 23 counts before flipping, the “I had no idea” defense rings as hollow as the state’s empty promises and Newscum's multi-billion dollar ghost train. The fish rots from the head. California isn’t “leading” the nation—it’s bleeding trust, treasure, and talent. If this is the standard inside the governor’s office, imagine what’s still hidden. Time for sunlight, forensic audits, and real accountability. The people deserve better than a one-party grift machine masquerading as governance. Who’s next? Drop your thoughts below, I guarantee Gavin Newscum will read this post and comments! 🤣 #NewsomCorruptionExposed #CADemFraudMachine #EliteGriftExposed #DrainTheSacramentoSwamp #CaliforniaReckoning #TaxpayerTheft #BecerraScandal #RuleOfLawMatters

Tony Seruga

361,185 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

Cloud capital versus AI - What DeepSeek’s spectacular success means for technofeudalism & the New Cold War DeepSeek, a Chinese artificial intelligence (AI) company, this week changed the global AI landscape, not to mention caused $1 trillion losses in the New York stock exchange and the NASDAC. In the process, it demonstrated the difference between cloud capital, which drives technofeudalism onward and upward, and AI-services, which were always a bubble waiting to burst. What remains to be seen is DeepSeek's impact on the New Cold War between the US and China which, from its beginning, was motivated by the clash between US and Chinese cloud capital. DeepSeek is China's response to OpenAI's ChatGPT. Its models perform as efficiently as their US counterparts. The difference is that DeepSeek is offered for free, making money only by selling services to developers - not to the public – at a fraction of the price OpenAI charges! The gist of DeepSeek’s arrival on the AI scene is a sudden transition from proprietary to open source technology. It is, therefore, no great wonder that, the moment DeekSeek became the most downloaded app on the Apple Store, it pulverised the market capitalisation of the, hitherto overinflated, US Big Tech companies. But how did this happen? How is a private commodity suddenly being offered for free? And does this mean that technofeudalism is in trouble? To begin with it is important to note AI was never a proprietary technology in itself. The underlying code has always been open source. What made AI quasi-private was the way these models were trained using huge amounts of privatised (that is stolen from us) data. A leaked Google memo in 2017, that was widely discussed in the industry at the time, but also widely refuted, explained: "If an open source LLM trained for a few million dollars outperforms the effectiveness of proprietary models... There will be no firewall to safeguard OpenAI either." DeepSeek pierced the US AI companies’ bubble by decommodifying the results of the model’s training, shifting them from behind a paywall to the public arena. Within days, developers around the world started building their own models on top of DeepSeek's. This is was the nightmare for US Big Tech's AI service providers who offered the results of prompts as a commodity, in the form of subscriptions. DeepSeek-type applications can now produce high-quality translations for free and, in so doing, undermine companies specialising in, for example, translation services, such as Germany's Deepl. In the broader scheme of things, this means that the morsels of cloud capital that Europe owns has lost its market value. Nevertheless, and this is a huge nevertheless, it is only AI-as-a-commodity that has lost its (grossly exaggerated) value. In sharp contrast, cloud capital utilised not as a commodity producing piece of tech but as produced means of behavioural modification is not at all threatened by companies like DeepSeek. And since technofeudalism is powered by cloud capital working that way, rather than commodity-like AI services of the ChaptGPT type, our technofeudal order is not threatened by competitors such as DeepSeek. To help understand the difference between cloud capital and AI-based commodified services it helps to compare and contrast Alexa and ChatGPT. Alexa is not offering you a commodified service. It is your free pretend-slave. Unlike ChatGPT you do not pay a subscription to Amazon for the right to order Alexa to order you milk or to switch off your lights. Instead, you train Alexa to train you to train it to know you so that it wins your trust with good recommendations so that it can modify your behaviour – ‘encourage’ you to buy a commodity from with Bezos retaining up to 40% of the price you pay (as a cloud rent). In short, the work that Alexa performs for you is not a commodity, unlike ChatGPT which works to sell you a commodity. In other words, ChatGPT is subject to market competition, to the likes of DeepSeek, but Alexa is not. This is why OpenAI, ChatGPT’s maker, is seriously damaged by the emergence of DeepSeek but Amazon is not. Thus, my basic point: Cloud capital is in a league of its own, beyond market competition from DeepSeek-like upstarts, because its power lies in its capacity to modify our behaviour and remove us from any market (e.g., to shift us from real markets to cloud fiefs like Amazon and Alibaba). In conclusion, cloud capital’s capacity to drive technofeudalism is not challenged by companies like DeepSeek. Only companies like OpenAI, which invested so much and so foolishly in providing a commodified service, stand to lose enormously. Yet another sign that capitalism is dead at the hand of cloud capital while technofeudalism is going from strength to strength and, as it does so, fuels even further the New Cold War between the US and China which in my book, Technofeudalism, I have explained away as the clash of the two huge concentrations of cloud capital: the American dollar-denominated super cloudalist power and the Chinese yuan-denominated one. Speaking of this New Cold War, which I have argued is mostly fuelled by the clash between American and Chinese cloud capital, I wonder what impact DeepSeek’s success will have on the US government. Silicon Valley and Washington DC had convinced themselves that America had a huge AI lead over China. Now, a tiny Chinese company has destroyed that confidence by producing on a shoestring better AI tech than Sillicon Valley had imagined possible. I can almost hear the whirring inside the heads of people in power on both America’s East and West Coast thinking that if the Chinese can do this out of the blue, what else can they do tomorrow? It is reminiscent of the Sputnik moment, isn’t it? It will be interesting to see how Trump reacts to this threat to companies American AI companies, especially since Elon Musk understands, and has spoken out against, the folly of commodifying AI services rather than going full on technofeudal. These are interesting times, in the traditional Chinese sense of the phrase.

Yanis Varoufakis

96,399 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

$NWBO #𝗗𝗖𝗩𝗮𝘅-𝗟: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝘃𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗧𝗲𝗿𝗺𝘀 A short, plain-language reading of the survival evidence for DCVax-L in #glioblastoma, and what it means under the MHRAgovuk guideline on external control arms. 📊 𝗣𝗔𝗥𝗧 𝗢𝗡𝗘: 𝗪𝗛𝗔𝗧 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗧𝗥𝗜𝗔𝗟 𝗙𝗢𝗨𝗡𝗗, 𝗔𝗡𝗗 𝗪𝗛𝗬 𝗜𝗧 𝗠𝗔𝗧𝗧𝗘𝗥𝗦 DCVax-L more than doubled five-year survival, and the benefit is durability: a subset gets lasting disease control and simply stays alive. 💉 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗱𝗿𝘂𝗴 𝗶𝘀 DCVax-L is a personalized cancer vaccine for glioblastoma, the deadliest form of brain cancer and a designated orphan disease. It is a living drug: its active ingredient is the patient's own immune cells, primed with proteins from that patient's surgically removed tumor, so the immune system learns to attack the cancer. Unlike a chemical drug that is metabolized and cleared, it switches on a living immune response that keeps working long after the injection. Glioblastoma comes back in almost everyone: even with the full standard of surgery, radiation, and temozolomide chemotherapy, most patients live under two years, and only about one in twenty reaches five. DCVax-L is given on top of that standard care, not in place of it: every patient in the trial received surgery, radiation, and temozolomide, and the vaccine was added to it, so the comparison measures what the vaccine adds. For two decades, nearly every new drug tried in this disease has failed. That is the backdrop against which any positive result must be judged. 📈 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗳𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱 In a Phase 3 trial of 331 patients, those who received DCVax-L lived longer. At the median the gain looks modest, about three months (19.3 versus 16.5). The number that matters sits at the far end of the survival curve: more than twice as many vaccine patients were alive at five years, 13.0% versus 5.7%, and a few reached ten years in a disease that usually kills within three. In patients whose tumor had already returned, the effect was larger still, cutting the risk of death by about 42%. 👥 𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗽 𝗯𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗳𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗱, 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗱𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁 The benefit was not confined to the easy cases. Of the six prespecified subgroups the trial examined, every single one favored DCVax-L, and there was no group in which it did worse than standard care. The largest gains came in patients whose tumors carry MGMT methylation, who reached a median survival of 30.2 months from randomization against 21.3 for the controls. But even the hardest-to-treat patients, whose tumors lack that methylation, resist standard chemotherapy, and carry the worst prognosis in this disease, still came out ahead with the vaccine, at a hazard ratio of 0.93. A treatment that helps across the whole population, and helps most where the biology is most favorable, is acting like a real drug. 📉 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗵𝗶𝗱𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 That five-year number is the whole story, and the median buries it. Almost every treatment that ever helped in glioblastoma did the same modest thing: it slid the survival curve a few months to the right, then let it fall back. Doubling five-year survival is different in kind. A three-month gain at the median cannot, by itself, double the fraction alive at five years. The only shape that produces both numbers is a split: most patients get the small delay the median measures, while a subset gets durable disease control that lasts for years, well past where glioblastoma should have ended them. That subset is the long tail of the curve, and it is where the benefit lives. A median ignores extremes, the way a town's median income tells you nothing about its millionaires. The real story is not a longer delay; it is that a meaningful share of patients simply stay alive. 🧬 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗶𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗴𝘆 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗲 The tail is not luck. It is what this biology is built to produce. The vaccine carries proteins from the patient's own tumor, so it aims the immune system at whatever that tumor is made of, not a fixed short list of targets. And it amplifies: one trained immune cell drives many others that multiply into cancer-killers. Andres Salazar, the neurologist who developed poly-ICLC into the clinical adjuvant given with the vaccine, puts it in a line: you start the fire, and you keep it burning. A response like that does not produce a one-time bump. It builds and widens over time. What matters is not just that a response forms, but what kind. Dendritic cells are the immune system's master switch for that, the cells that set what kind of attack the body mounts, and this vaccine is built from them. It drives what immunologists call a type 1 polarized response: an interferon-driven, cytotoxic program aimed squarely at the tumor. That direction comes from the vaccine itself; the poly-ICLC adjuvant given with it drives the same interferon program and sustains it. That is the active ingredient, and it has been measured. In UCLA studies of this approach, the patients whose immune systems mounted the strongest interferon response lived the longest. The response also spreads. In a different cancer, a vaccine carried on this same poly-ICLC adjuvant drove more than 70% of a patient's cancer-killing T cells to target proteins that were never in the vaccine: the immune system outgrew its original targets and went after the rest of the tumor on its own. This is called epitope spreading, and it is not particular to one tumor; it is what this kind of response does, and it is the kind of response DCVax-L builds. That breadth is the likeliest thing separating the long-term survivors from everyone else, a response that breaks past its targets and clears the disease rather than one that stays caged and stops. There is even a tell in who benefits most: the effect is largest in tumors whose biology builds up more mutations under chemotherapy, and more mutations mean more targets for a whole-tumor vaccine to find. The same logic explains what the vaccine is not, and what it does not need. Checkpoint inhibitors, the drugs that release the immune system's brakes, have failed on their own in glioblastoma because there was no active response to release; the vaccine supplies that response first. That makes the vaccine the natural foundation for combination therapy. Combining it with its poly-ICLC adjuvant, made by Oncovir, has already shown meaningful survival gains in a published analysis. In the pivotal trial, the vaccine's proven benefit came added on top of standard chemotherapy and radiation; the newer question is how much the immune response can carry on its own. A UCLA trial is now testing that in patients whose tumors have returned, adding #Keytruda (pembrolizumab), the checkpoint antibody from $MRK, in a regimen built entirely around the immune response with no chemotherapy or radiation in it at all. Its interim survival curve shows the shape the biology predicts. In the arm given the vaccine and Keytruda together after surgery, the curve does not fall away but flattens into a plateau, with roughly 65% of patients still alive well past the point where recurrent glioblastoma kills nearly everyone. That plateau is the signature of a response that took hold and lasted, the type 1 attack forming durable immune memory so that once the disease is controlled it stays controlled. That is where this points, and where it is already arriving, a treatment that works through the response itself, one that could in time lean less on the harsh radiation and chemotherapy that have defined glioblastoma care and barely moved its survival. These are interim results, from Prins, Cloughesy, and Liau at UCLA. 🔍 𝗣𝗔𝗥𝗧 𝗧𝗪𝗢: 𝗜𝗦 𝗜𝗧 𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗟? The trial was randomized, an independent experiment shows the outside comparison is trustworthy, and every separate check points the same way. 🤔 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗼𝗯𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘄𝗵𝘆 𝗶𝘁 𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸 So much for what happened; the harder question is whether to believe it. The trial has the feature critics attacked: it could not keep a normal placebo group, because patients assigned to placebo were allowed, by design and by medical ethics, to switch to the vaccine once their cancer returned, and almost all did. That erased the internal comparison, so survival was measured against closely matched patients from other completed trials, an approach called an external control, which critics argued could tilt toward the vaccine. What the objection misses is where the randomization went. This was a randomized, blinded trial. The patients who got the vaccine were assigned to it at random, not hand-picked, so the treated group is an ordinary slice of the trial population, not a favorable one. The crossover removed the placebo group but never touched how patients were assigned. That leaves exactly one place for bias to enter, the outside comparison group, which is precisely what the next checks test. ✅ 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗰𝗸 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝘁 𝘁𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁𝘄𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗵𝘆 Before trusting a scale to weigh something unknown, you confirm it reads zero with nothing on it. That is what the calibration does, and it is the strongest part of the case. A separate, independent randomized trial called INSIGhT was run through the very same external-control method, and it gave two answers. First, three experimental drugs that had already failed were run through it, and it correctly found nothing (hazard ratios of 1.00, 0.93, and 0.88): the method does not manufacture a benefit where none exists. Second, INSIGhT's external controls were set head to head against its own randomized internal controls, and they were statistically indistinguishable. In this disease, an external control reproduces the answer a real randomized control would have given, and because that trial belonged to a different group, no one can say a sponsor graded its own work. The one place bias could enter, the control side, is the one place an independent randomized experiment certified as clean. There is a deeper fit worth naming, and it is what makes the two halves of this case one. The same instrument that reported those three failures as failures reads the vaccine as a success, and the biology says why: those drugs could not hold a tumor this varied, and the vaccine builds the broad, lasting response that finally does. One method, opposite readings, and one mechanism behind both. The statistics and the biology are not two arguments. They are the same argument seen twice. 🃏 𝗪𝗮𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗰𝗸𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘃𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗲'𝘀 𝗳𝗮𝘃𝗼𝗿? A natural worry is that the outside comparison was arranged after the fact to flatter the vaccine. The trial was built to prevent that. The patients to compare against, and the rules for matching them, were fixed in writing before anyone saw results, and an independent firm, not the company, chose the comparison trials against those rules. The trial also switched its main measure partway through, from delaying tumor growth to overall survival, but that was not a maneuver: immune treatments cause a harmless swelling that mimics tumor growth on scans and made the growth measure unreliable, and the switch was made while everyone was still blinded. Three further checks point the same way. Survival in this disease has not improved over the years the comparison spans, so same-era controls are sound. When the borrowed controls were tested directly, the comparison came out conservative rather than flattering. And the controls were counted from the same point in the disease as the vaccine patients, so neither side got a head start. Where the comparison can err, it errs against the drug. 🔬 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗳𝘂𝗹 𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝗺𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗳𝗶𝘁 𝗯𝗶𝗴𝗴𝗲𝗿, 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝘀𝗺𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗿 The first comparison used whole groups. A sharper one became possible once patient-level records from three other trials could be obtained, pairing each vaccine patient with controls matched on the traits that drive survival in glioblastoma, above all MGMT methylation status, matched exactly, plus age, sex, extent of surgery, residual disease, and performance status. When the comparison got sharper, the benefit grew in every one of these analyses. The original cohort-level estimate was 2.8 months. Patient-level matching across the three trials put the gain between 3.4 and 6.3 months, and a method that weights patients rather than pairing them put it between 3.4 and 4.3, with several of the matched comparisons roughly doubling the original figure. The hazard ratio moved the same way, from 0.80 to between 0.69 and 0.77. The direction matters. A real effect blurred by crude matching gets clearer when the matching improves, while a biased one tends to shrink. It got stronger. 🕵️ 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗺𝘂𝗰𝗵 𝗵𝗶𝗱𝗱𝗲𝗻 𝗯𝗶𝗮𝘀 𝘄𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗶𝘁 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆 A fair question is how much hidden bias it would take to erase the result. Statisticians measure that with the E-value, and here a hidden factor would have to be about as strong as age is on survival, would also have to drive who received the vaccine, and would have to have escaped the decades of research that mapped every known risk factor in this disease. A second, independent check, Rosenbaum's Gamma, comes at it from the other side, asking how large an unseen imbalance between matched patients it would take to break the result, and it reaches the same verdict. Every factor strong enough to matter was already matched. A hidden one that clears that bar is not plausible. 🔒 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘂𝗹𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗳𝗮𝗸𝗲 The strongest point is not any single result. It is that a hidden bias big enough to explain the effect away would have to produce the same answer in every independent test at once: • The independent randomized calibration trial. • Three separate comparison trials, drawn from different studies. • Two different statistical methods that handle the data in different ways. • A separate pooled analysis of other dendritic-cell vaccine trials. • The internal math of the survival curve, which points to the same result (about 0.71 at five years) that the patient matching found. And it would have to fall in the exact direction the biology predicted before any data existed: a slow, widening benefit concentrated in long-term survivors. A single hidden factor that could forge all of that at once is not a hidden factor. It is a coincidence that does not happen. 🩺 𝗣𝗔𝗥𝗧 𝗧𝗛𝗥𝗘𝗘: 𝗪𝗛𝗔𝗧 𝗜𝗧 𝗠𝗘𝗔𝗡𝗦 The drug is nearly free of harm, the evidence fits an established and approved regulatory path, and what remains unrun changes nothing about the case. 🛡️ 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗮𝗳𝗲𝘁𝘆 Two things decide whether a real effect reaches patients: whether the drug is safe enough to use, and whether regulators will accept the evidence. The first is settled. Across 2,151 doses, only five serious side effects were even possibly related to the vaccine, with no autoimmunity and no cytokine storm. It is made once, in about eight days, then stored and given as a simple injection. When a treatment barely harms, the benefit needed to justify it falls, and the benefit here clears that lower bar easily. ⏳ 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗿 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗼𝗻𝗹𝘆 𝗻𝗼𝘄 A reasonable person asks why the sharper analysis appeared in 2026 and not in 2023. The answer is access, not choice. The patient-level analysis was written into the trial's plan from the start, to run if and when the data could be obtained. The company tried and could not get it in 2023, because the trials that held it had not released it; it became available later through a data-sharing repository, on the data owners' timeline, not the company's. The stronger analysis was always the plan. It was waiting on data that other parties control. 🔄 𝗣𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝘄𝗵𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗿 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝗹𝘀𝗼 𝗯𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗳𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗱 The vaccine helped not only newly diagnosed patients but also those whose tumor had already come back, and there the effect was the largest seen anywhere in the trial. In that group, median survival ran 13.2 months from recurrence against 7.8 for the controls. The separation opened immediately, with 90.6% of vaccine patients alive at six months against 64.0% of controls, and the lead held to the later marks, where survival more than doubled: 20.7% against 9.6% at two years, 11.1% against 5.1% at two and a half. These are the original cohort-level results, already published. The high-resolution patient-level matching that was applied to the newly diagnosed group has not yet been done here, for a practical reason: it needs patient records from other recurrent-cancer trials, held by a European research organization that shares them through its own formal request. Obtaining them is a routine next step, not an obstacle, and the newly diagnosed experience suggests the sharper analysis would only make the recurrent result stronger. The approval case rests on the newly diagnosed evidence, so nothing important depends on this step; it would simply sharpen a result that is already the strongest in the trial. 🏛️ 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗺𝗲𝗮𝗻𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗮𝗹 Regulators do not treat an external control as a first choice, but the MHRA's guideline allows it in exactly this situation: a severe disease where a placebo trial is not ethical or feasible, and an effect large enough to interpret despite the design. The guideline even gives its own worked example of an acceptable external control, and it reads almost like a description of this trial: a rare disease, no ethical placebo, same-era standard-of-care controls, an objective survival endpoint, and an effect too large to blame on bias. DCVax-L fits on every count, and it was the first medicine ever to receive the MHRA's Promising Innovative Medicine designation, which asks essentially the same questions. The newly diagnosed case carries the decision on its own evidence, and regulators weigh that evidence against the disease it treats: in a cancer this lethal, with nothing better on offer, the question is whether the benefit is large, clear, and consistent enough to act on, and a benefit of this size, pointing the same way from every direction, is. 📜 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗱𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 External controls are not a novelty invented for this drug. Over the past two decades they have factored into roughly forty-five drug approvals by the United States regulator, each granted under the conditions that apply here: a serious or rare disease, a placebo that would be unethical, and high unmet need. Regulators do not grant this lightly. They grant it when the disease is serious, its course is predictable and objectively measured, and the effect is large. Glioblastoma meets all three. The named cases cover every part of this disease's profile. Defibrotide, for a life-threatening transplant complication, was approved on a propensity-score comparison to a historical control, the same kind of method used here. Blinatumomab, for an aggressive relapsed leukemia, is the precedent for a fast-killing cancer, cleared by both the United States and European regulators. Cerliponase alfa is the precedent for a fatal brain disease, cleared by both agencies on treated patients versus a matched natural-history group. Glioblastoma is both at once, a fast-killing cancer of the brain, read by the same method, so no part of its profile lacks a close approved precedent. And on the one axis that governs how far an external-control result can be trusted, DCVax-L goes beyond all three. Each of those drugs was tested in a single-arm trial, with no randomization at all. DCVax-L began as a randomized trial and became an external-control comparison only when ethics consumed its placebo group. It sits in that tradition, and at the top of it. 🎯 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗼𝗺 𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 This began as a randomized trial. Medical ethics forced it into an external-control comparison. Every independent way of checking it, on different data and different math, points the same direction, and the biology predicted that direction in advance. The first analysis did not overstate the vaccine's effect. Read with the right tools, it understated it.

Andrew Caravello, DO

11,406 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Raising a major red flag!! This is very serious. You know, over the past few years, when I speak of antisemitism today and how it compares to antisemitism before the Holocaust, one of the biggest pushbacks I get is that back then antisemitism was institutionalized with the Nuremberg laws, but today it is not. So allow me to tell you what institutionalized antisemitism looks like. The topic of foreign aid to Israel is a hot topic. Yesterday there was a vote in the U.S. House of Representatives and 104 representatives voted for a bill to cut all foreign aid to Israel. So how serious is American foreign aid to Israel? Allow me to give you some numbers. The US GDP is about $27 trillion. Their foreign aid is about $100 billion. That means that ALL US foreign aid put together is 0.37% of their GDP. A microscopic number. But that is ALL their foreign aid. How much of that goes to Israel? America sends Israel $3.3 billion in annual foreign aid. That means that Israel’s foreign aid from the US is about 3% to 4% of total U.S. foreign aid, which is only 0.37% of the GDP. And this is what all the fuss is about?! By the way, Israel’s GDP is approaching the trillion dollar mark. So again, we’re talking about $3.3 billion from the US out of Israel’s $1 trillion GDP. That number is almost completely insignificant. For context, the Ukraine gets about $6.5 billion. So congress said no to stopping foreign aid to Israel. That’s great news, right? Wrong!! Over 100 American congressmen voted to stop foreign aid!! 104!! This was a bipartisan issue forever. No more. How does that number compare to previous votes on the same topic? In 2025, only 6 members voted to cut funding. Six! And yesterday was 104!! This is extremely worrisome! Side note: I actually hope Israel does become independent and stops taking foreign aid but that should be our decision, not congress’ decision! So… As you may or may not recall, before 10/7, I wrote a post raising a red flag that something big is about to happen and Israel will be at the center of it. Wrote that two days before. And a month before Bondi, I wrote that there is going to be a mass casualty event at a Jewish event. I’m not a prophet but I do have my eyes open so allow me to tell you what’ll happen next. The conspiracies about Israel are running rampant. They are getting sillier and more dangerous by the day. “But I’m sure those conspiracy theorists are just a bunch of crazy people with no influence.” Really? How about the vice president of the United States of America? This is a recent interview with JD Vance, the vice president of the United States of America, saying on Joe Rogan’s podcast to his millions and millions of followers and listeners that there are paid players funded by Israel who are trying everything to undermine America’s negotiations with Iran. He quotes a time magazine article that singles out actual friends of mine who are paid by no one and the entire article is one big blood libel. And this is the vice president of the United States spreading this false narrative about Israel. The conspiracies are everywhere, and they are getting worse by the day. Things that were considered socially unacceptable and even taboo just a few years ago have become a daily occurrence. If I showed you my comment section or my inbox on any given day, you would become physically ill. You know, the caricatures of Jews with big noses, the name calling, the praising Hitler, the claim that the Jews are the source of all of the world’s problems, and on and on and on. Just a few years ago, no one would dare speak that way publicly. Maybe they would say it behind closed doors, but they would never say it publicly due to the risk of being canceled as an antisemite. Not only are those things no longer taboo, not only are they acceptable, they are now the cool thing to do. All the cool kids are doing it. So here’s my new prediction. Soon, I don’t know if it’s a couple of weeks or a month or two, there’s going to be some explosive new theory or conspiracy about how Israel is undermining the US. It will be widely accepted by Americans, which will lead to a faster increase in anti-Semitism, which will lead to Jews finding themselves totally isolated and discriminated against in mainstream American society. Mark my words, over the next short while, we will see some serious allegations against Israel, whether it’s Israel spying on America, Israel stealing money from America, or something else that is completely not based on reality. Antisemitism in the United States and Western civilization in general is about to go through the roof. I am not talking about anti-Semitism from Islamist. I am not talking about radical anti-Semitism from the far left. I am not even talking about anti-Semitism from the far right. I am talking about mainstream American society, people who stood by us for years, completely turning on the Jews and joining forces with all of the groups I just mentioned. We are going to see anti-Semitism escalate physical violence and even murder. Things are about to get a whole lot worse and fast. As I always say, I would love nothing more than to be wrong, but I am not wrong. The silver lining? Many more Jews are going to come to the conclusion that they are no longer welcome in the United States, and will contact Nefesh B’Nefesh, get on a plane, and come home. Unfortunately, there will be many Jews who don’t, and who continue to convince themselves that everything is OK and that it won’t happen there. To those diaspora Jews, please remain alert at all times. So now, I ask a question I’ve been asking for years. Dear my brothers and sisters in the diaspora, what has to happen for you to realize it’s time to go? I’ve wondered my whole life why the German Jews didn’t leave, and I never had an answer, until now. If someone had a gun to their head and that person was told that if they don’t get on an El Al plane within the hour, the person will pull the trigger. Anyone in their right mind would get on a plane, right? If that’s the case, presumably those people do not think that what’s happening today constitutes a gun to their head. So here’s my question, what does? If synagogues being vandalized, Jews being harassed, Jewish businesses being boycotted, businesses refusing to serve Jews, Jews being assaulted and even murdered, being hunted down, lists of Jews being made, every single top podcaster (Candace, Tucker, Fuentes, Rogan) hating on the Jews, and politicians suggesting camps for Zionists, if all of that is not a gun to your head, then what is? What has to happen for you to realize you need to get out and now? Is there any such event? If so, what is it? I fully recognize that this is going to anger a lot of my friends in the diaspora. You know what? I am totally OK with that. You wanna know why? Because do you know who else would’ve been angered by me raising this red flag? My grandmother. And every other European Jew who lived there just before the Holocaust. If I had told them then what I’m telling you now, they would’ve called me hysterical, they would’ve said I am fearmongering, and they would’ve said it won’t happen here. Oh, and one more thing. Please don’t misunderstand me. I am deeply grateful for America’s support of Israel. My family was given refuge in the US. The US has been good to my family and to my people. I am thankful for that. Sadly that party is over and it’s time for Jews to open a history book and look what happened to the Jews in every single empire ever after many many years of living in that empire comfortably and in safety. In every single one of those instances, the party ended and the Jews did not read the writing on the wall before it was too late. How about we change that pattern and get out before it’s too late? While the party is over for Jews over there, the party over here is just getting started. We are building a BETTER future for Jews here in Israel. Yes, we have challenges here. I’d be delusional if I denied that. But the trajectory here is a good one. And if the challenges and problems over here bother you so much, then come here and fix them! The good news is, it’s true, antisemitism today cannot be compared to back then. However, there is only one reason for that, and that reason is the modern state of Israel, a country where any Jew can walk around freely with a kipa on their head and a star of David around their neck. Here, you are welcome with open arms. We were given a historic and unprecedented gift with the modern state of Israel, a gift our ancestors would have died for, and even Moses was denied. Please accept that gift and don’t throw it back into the face of the One who gave it to us. Also? Shawarma on me. 😁 Am Yisrael Chai Vekayam. The nation of Israel lives on! Those antisemites will soon become a footnote in history books while we will continue to exist, thrive, and flourish! 🇮🇱🇮🇱 Come join us!

Hillel Fuld

46,251 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

In his continuing “Pool Monologues,” Trump hits a record ELEVEN AND A HALF MINUTES sitting with the NATO Secretary. I cannot emphasize enough… Try and read it. I dare you. 1/3 “The pool? Yes. It's in great shape. No. Ready? Thugs. They just told me a little while ago. Six have been arrested and like six or seven are under arrest. They have pictures and everything else. They went to the bottom and it's not a paint job. It's very expensive. It's not rubber but it's like rubber. And they went down with probably a box cutter or a very sharp razor of some kind of a knife. They cut and then they started ripping it up. You know why? Because there's sick people. And then the side of the pool, right at the water level, they took razors and they started cutting this very expensive stuff. It's incredible stuff. It's beautiful. And it's still beautiful. We have one area where they cut it. It's still holding. It's not leaking. But they hurt it so probably maybe after July 4th or maybe before. I don't know. Well, let a little water out because it's at the edge. They'll cut it. They'll replace it and it'll be as good as new. But these people should go to jail for a long time. You know, there's a statue that I saw when I had my first here that if you do anything to hurt statues or monuments, fountains in Washington, D.C. or federal fountain, it's actually federal all over the country. But you go to jail for 10 years and there's no shortcuts. In other words, it's not five years for good behavior. It's a very tough statue. And so tough that it really hasn't been used very much over the years. But I used it when they had a problem in Washington where they were trying to hurt the sickos, would try to hurt things, and I announced it. As soon as I announced it, read it, announced it. And I said, 10 years for anybody, everybody dropped what they had, including ropes. They had ropes. They were tying ropes around Thomas Jefferson's head, Andrew Jackson right up there, that a rope around his head on that incredible statue. I said, as soon as I invoked it, everybody left, that's still in play. They could go to jail for 10 years. They better be careful. They have a gash on that beautiful pool. It's a reflecting point. This is a very expensive material. Then on top of it, we did a much bigger job than we said we were going to do because we did all the outer areas. We did a beautiful job. It's like a piece of glass. And for some reason, this disturbed the radical left lunatics. You know, the guy that one of the guys, he's a member or a big pair to act blue. He's a big Hillary supporter. He's a big supporter of Sleepy Joe Biden. No, this is a very political thing. But as I understand it, six are under arrest. This was pure vandalism. It's an amazing thing that we did. Don't forget, it hasn't worked properly since it was built because it always leaked in 1922. So it was built in 1922. So that's 100 years more ago. It's never worked properly. I always said, had great potential. And I said in my first term, I'm going to do something. So Biden and Obama, between the two of them, spent over $100 million. It was a disaster. Obama, because of the environment, took the water from the Potomac, and it was horrible. It was bad. I don't want to have to tell you what happened, but it was really bad. You can read about it. Biden, he didn't have any idea what the hell they were doing because he didn't know what anything was happening. But they spent over $100 million. We spent 14 or 15 in a lot less than that because a lot of these people worked for the Parks Department anyway. So they're going to work. So I would say a lot less. And we put a great surface on it. This is a world-class surface. It looked beautiful. But they came in and they cut it. And then they grabbed it and they pulled it up. That's why it's all ripped. And who would even think of it? They're sick people. So I think they're in big trouble. But here's the bottom line.”

Jim Stewartson, Decelerationist 🇨🇦🇺🇦🇺🇸

212,919 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

In 1998, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger spent 4 hours explaining why the smartest people in finance keep going broke. It might be the most valuable finance lecture ever recorded: 1. The smartest people in finance went completely broke. Long-term Capital Management had 16 people with possibly the highest average IQ of any firm in the country, 350 to 400 combined years of experience, and most of their own net worth in the fund. They still went bankrupt. Buffett said if he ever wrote a book it would be called why smart people do dumb things. 2. Life and markets have no relation to sigmas. Buffett keeps a 1901 newspaper on his office wall. Northern Pacific went from $170 to $1,000 a share in a single day when two buyers accidentally cornered the stock. A brewer who had shorted it, facing a margin call, dove into a vat of hot beer. That man probably understood sigmas and knew such a move was impossible. Buffett has never wanted to end up in the vat. 3. Beta and sigmas tell you nothing about the risk of going broke. the LTCM team relied on mathematics and believed a six- or seven-sigma event could not touch them. they were wrong. history does not tell you the probabilities of future financial events. the real risk is a permanent blind spot in something crucial, often caused by knowing a great deal about something else. 4. To a man with a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. Munger's explanation for why brilliant people do dumb things. They learn a set of mathematical techniques and then twist every problem to fit the solution they already know. Combine that with a poor grasp of history, and you get people with advanced degrees blowing themselves up. 5. To make money they did not need, they risked money they did need. That is just plain foolish, Buffett says, no matter your IQ. Hand him a gun with a million chambers and one bullet, offer any sum to put it to his temple and pull once, and he will not do it. there is nothing on the upside that justifies the downside. people do this financially all the time without thinking. 6. The major banks all had risk models and had no idea what they owned. they met weekly at risk committees, printed all the statistics in neat columns, and did not have the faintest idea what risk they were carrying. The rare and essential quality is someone who can contemplate perils that have not popped up yet, the ones no past model contains. 7. A chief risk officer often just makes you feel good while you do dumb things. munger compares him to the Delphic oracle who convinced the Persian king to attack. he has a PhD and does advanced math, but he tortures reality to defend a model that does not hold under extreme conditions. all that computation makes you feel like you clobbered the risk when you have only clobbered your own head. 8. The whole quant risk system just changed the shape of the curve and kept going. Munger notes the business schools "improved" by throwing away the Gaussian curve and drawing a different one. They talk about fat tails now, but they still have no idea how fat to make them. he and Buffett always knew the tails were there, and used to roll their eyes at the risk-control people at Salomon. 9. Never risk what you have and need for what you do not have and do not need. Buffett will not explain to his family, who hold most of their net worth in Berkshire, that they went broke on a 100-to-1 gamble. Their returns get penalized 99 years out of 100 by being too conservative, and in the hundredth year they survive when others do not. 10. Build the business so that if the world stops working tomorrow, you have no problem. Berkshire double-layers its protection. First, they behave so no rational person questions their credit, then they hold so much liquidity that if the world suddenly hated their credit, they would not notice for months. It gives up higher returns 99% of the time and survives the one time others do not. 11. The real danger is a risk that has never happened before. Buffett wants someone who can imagine perils that have not yet appeared, the ones no model contains. The major institutions all had models, and that inability to envision the unprecedented is exactly what proved fatal. He and Munger spend a lot of time thinking about things that could hit them out of the blue that others leave out entirely. 12. Investing is simple, but not easy. The framework is not complicated. you did not need a high IQ to buy junk bonds in 2002 or stocks at low multiples in 1974. you just needed the courage of your convictions and the willingness to act when everyone else was paralyzed. Following logic rather than emotion is obvious, and yet some people find it almost impossible. 13. You cannot get rich with a weathervane. Buffett and Munger pay no attention to predictions about the economy or the market. People love predictions, entire industries are built on them, but it is like the king hiring a forecaster to read sheep guts. They have never made or avoided a single business purchase because of a macro view. 14. Name one super-wealthy economist. Munger's challenge. All these economists with 160 IQs spend their lives studying markets, and you cannot find one who got rich buying securities. Even Keynes tried to predict the credit cycle, broke a couple of times, and only did well once he switched to buying good businesses cheap and concentrating. 15. Focus only on what is important and knowable. Some things are important but unknowable, like whether someone drops a nuclear weapon tomorrow. Some things are knowable but unimportant. You narrow your attention to the small set of things that are both important and knowable, and you ignore everything else. 16. The market is there to serve you, not to instruct you. This is Graham's chapter eight, and Buffett calls it enormously important. When people talk about momentum or charts, they are saying the market instructs you. It does not. It just quotes prices. When it does something silly, you get a chance to act. Otherwise you go play bridge and check again tomorrow. 17. You can make a decision in five minutes or not at all. Buffett and Munger act fast because they rule out enormous territory in advance. Munger blots out startups entirely, and half a dozen other filters, so what remains is small enough to judge instantly. If they cannot decide in five minutes, they will not learn enough in five months to make up for going in deficient. 18. You can make a lot of money on a Sunday. Buffett said the calls you get on a Sunday, when things are truly screwed up, are the ones you make money on. All you have to do is be the collie and not the caller. You never get in a position where the other party can call your tune, so you can always play out your hand. 19. You are not right because others agree with you. Ben Graham said you are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees. You are right because your facts and reasoning are right. Being contrarian has no special virtue over being a trend follower. All that matters is whether the facts are correct and the logic is sound. 20. Know where the edge of your circle of competence is. Buffett says the size of your circle does not matter. Knowing its perimeter does. You do not have to understand 90% of businesses. You just have to know something real about the few you actually put money into, and honestly recognize the ones you do not understand and walk away. 21. Intrinsic value is just the cash a business will produce, discounted back. Buffett thinks of every business as a bond with coupons that are not printed on it. Your job as an investor is to estimate those future coupons. If you cannot estimate them, like in a high-tech company, you pass. Investing is putting out money to get more back from what the asset produces, not from selling it to someone else. 22. The best businesses earn a royalty and need little capital. Coca-Cola sells a formula and takes a cut of every drink. Magazines like People operate on negative capital because subscribers pay in advance. The great businesses are the ones that can grow very large while needing almost no capital, which is why consumer businesses with pricing power are so valuable. 23. You only have to find one good idea, not twenty. Munger said you cannot find twenty deeply mispriced things, and Buffett agreed you do not need to. You do not have to have tons of good ideas in this business. You just need one good idea that is worth a ton, occasionally. For small sums, Buffett said he would have been 100% in Korea a few years earlier, where great companies traded at three times earnings. 24. The trick is measuring everything against your best opportunity. Munger calls this opportunity cost, the doctrine from the first page of the economics textbook that modern portfolio theory somehow ignored. Once you have found the best thing you understand, you measure every other option against it. The higher your default option, the more you can reject. 25. Modern portfolio theory is, in Munger's words, asinine. Most people will not find thousands of equally good things. They will find a few where one or two are far better than anything else they know. The right way to invest is to concentrate on your best opportunity cost, not to diversify into mediocrity because a model told you to. 26. Big opportunities must be seized, and seized big. Buffett says imagine you got a punch card with only twenty punches for your whole life, one per financial decision. You would think hard about each one, make fewer and better bets, and probably never use all twenty. The discipline of scarcity would make you rich. Dabbling in a bull market because it is easy is how people lose. 27. America has always been full of reasons to sell, and wrong every time. Coca-Cola went public in 1919 at $40, dropped to $19 within a year, and then faced the great depression, World War, and atomic bombs. One share reinvested is worth millions now. The country's opportunities have always won out over its problems. It is investors, not the economy, who tend to be their own worst enemy.

Jaynit

104,045 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

‡ The Pacific Classic Result It was unfortunate that Nysos was scratched, but the result was interesting, with Fierceness, the 1.6/1 second-favorite, comfortably handling Journalism, the (overbet) 2/5 choice. That the odds of the remaining five runners ranged between 22/1 and 72/1, underscored the yawning gap in quality between the top pair and the rest. So it was clearly no surprise that the "also-rans" toiled in their wake. What was surprising, at least at first glance, was how well Fierceness appeared to handle less than ideal conditions. But on closer inspection, his trip was actually far less challenging than the vast majority of post-race takes have suggested. His having ducked in soon after the start, almost making contact with the temporary extension rail, could have been a disaster, but it wasn't, and its importance has arguably been overblown. I say that because it was not similar to the trouble that he had encountered early in some of his previous races, in that he was in his own space, and was neither bumped, constricted, nor otherwise intimidated by other runners. This is an important distinction, because the mental weakness that he had previously displayed was related to close encounters with other horses, and his ducking-in after the break did not fall into that category. Inexperienced horses may suffer from that type of self-inflicted event, but given a mature, experienced runner, they are almost always forgotten quickly, which was clearly the case here. The fact that it was a long race also helped to mitigate the event, as there was no need for the rider to panic, or feel pressure to make up ground immediately. It is even possible that the early ground loss actually helped Fierceness, as had he been drawn closer to the pace early, it could have rendered him vulnerable in the late stages of the race. At the same time, due to the inside post, and how the race unfolded, Johnny Velasquez, who has done such a brilliant job keeping Fierceness outside and clear of his rivals in his previous wins, was forced to make the best of racing inside of horses. I understand why some are tempted to argue that Fierceness displayed a new dimension, as there were no obvious signs of him having been intimidated, despite the inside trip. But while I am willing to consider the possibility that he has gained confidence, I remain skeptical of any significant change, in part because it would be highly unusual for a horse to overcome that type of mental weakness midway through its four-year-old season, and/or in its 13th start. I also remain unconvinced for more subtle reasons. First, Fierceness was never bounced around, and with the possible exception of the first turn, he was never forced to race in especially tight quarters. Secondly, the rhythm of the race, after the initial duck-in, was actually smooth, and therefore beneficial to him. To understand why the above points are important, consider that Fierceness was never, so to speak, allergic to racing inside, but was more likely to face contact, be squeezed into a tight space, or have his rhythm thrown off when breaking from an inside post. In contrast, when breaking from an outside post, JV has invariably been able to place him clear of the pack, and in a comfortable, stalking rhythm. Fierceness is also essentially a free-runner, with a "light" mouth, and as such performs best when his rider allows him to dictate his own rhythm and pace. That is why, for example, Johnny V was not at all responsible for his loss in the Breeders' Cup Classic, as he is not the type of horse that a rider can take a strong hold of in order to restrain him further off of the pace, as that would discourage him. And to the great credit of both JV and Todd Pletcher, they picked up on this early on, and have done a superb job mitigating the colt's limitations, and maximizing his potential. In the Pacific Classic, despite racing on the inside, Johnny V remained cool and calm, and gave Fierceness another masterful ride. He and the colt's connections did benefit though, as none of his rivals, either intentionally or not, tightened things up significantly, or otherwise disrupted his rhythm. In fact, quite the opposite. Having tracked comfortably through much of the race, and with space around him, Fierceness displayed his trademark spurt on the final turn. And while the pan shot may suggest that he slipped though a tight opening, it was more like the red sea parting, as the embedded head-on view illustrates. If you are able to view the full head-on replay, you will find that despite racing inside, Fierceness actually enjoyed quite a comfortable trip, after the eventful few strides. A more subtle indication that we were watching the same horse as in his previous races comes :12-14 seconds into the embedded clip. When he was about to take the lead, he cocked his head to the right, as if he may have been worried about the horse outside of him. He was able to draw away from that one so quickly that it was ultimately of no practical consequence, but I would say that it implies that he hasn't suddenly developed the heart of a lion. *** Two qualities that have been crucial to Fierceness' success are his tactical speed, coupled with the separation that he produces on the final turn of his (two-turn) races. His ability to take command at that crucial stage has served him very well, particularly in his narrow win over Thorpedo Anna, and it was again on display in the Pacific Classic. A big part of the reason why that move has been such an important part of his arsenal is that it typically allows his him to take a "breather", before digging deep in an effort to fend off any late dangers. I encourage you to watch the (pan) replay of the Pacific Classic, and focus on Johnny V from around the 3/8th pole to the head of the stretch, as he was sitting like the proverbial statue. So for at least a furlong and a half, Fierceness was on cruise control, while Journalism, his only danger, was under pressure to make up ground, in an attempt to simply reach striking distance. But with all due credit to Fierceness and his rider for having produced fine efforts in the Pacific Classic, was this really an exceptionally outstanding performance, or was it at least partly a reflection of his only serious rival failing to run his best? I'm inclined to argue the latter. Despite Journalism having produced an unusually good 3yo campaign, capped by three Gr. I wins, including a Classic success in the Preakness, and never finishing worse than second, there have been some lingering questions. One of them is whether he is actually as well-suited to 10f. as he is to 8-9f. races. Yes, he was beaten in his two previous tries over 10f. by Sovereignty, a better horse. But in each race he was able to gain first-run on that one, an advantage that is typically difficult to overcome, yet lost ground late to the winner both times, and to Baeza as well, in the KY Derby. Some have suggested that he may have a tendency to loaf when in front, but I haven't seen any compelling evidence of that. And such horses typically dig in when passed, in efforts to re-engage, which we haven't seen, at least overtly, from Journalism. He also drew away from his rivals late in his first three wins. Alex Evers made this interesting comment about the kickback in the Pacific Classic: "I've photographed racing for 20 years, I've never seen kick back knock a jockeys goggles off like this." Here is a link to his supporting photos, which are typically excellent: Could that have discouraged Journalism? I suppose that it could have been an impediment, but he is such a tough and honest horse, that I would be surprised to learn that it was a meaningful factor. By contemporary standards, Journalism has also had a busy campaign, having raced a touch over once per month since March, all but one of which in Grade I events, and four times well away from his home base. So it is possible that he is beginning to feel the effects of those races, and travels. I have also noted that from a Beyer figure standpoint, he hasn't really moved forward, and it's worth noting that in contrast to Sovereignty and Baeza, both of which were late (May) foals, Journalism was a February foal, and may not have had quite as much room to improve. I don't know why he lagged so far behind in the early stages of the Pacific Classic, or if there was any tactical intention behind it. I had previously suggested that it might make sense to ride him more patiently, a tactic that is sometimes adopted when there are questions about a horse staying a trip. But I didn't notice any improved late kick, so it's difficult to interpret the performance. Fierceness earned a 107 Beyer figure for his victory, slower than his best three races last year, and merely equivalent to his comeback victory in the Gr. II Alysheba at Churchill Downs, in May. That doesn't suggest that it was a particularly outstanding performance. Journalism was given a 102, which implies that the return to his home court did not catalyze any notable forward move. *** I would say that there is one relevant pattern that has emerged, namely that Fierceness has an apparent affinity for the faster, high energy return track surfaces in California. He has now contested three races in CA (Beyer): 1st Breeders' Cup Juvenile (105) 2nd Breeders' Cup Classic (111) 1st Pacific Classic (107) It's also interesting to compare the colt's first and last half-mile fractions in his effort in last year's BCC, and the PC, both contested at Del Mar over 10f.: BCC – :45 1/5 • :51 3/5 PC – :46 1/5 • :50 2/5 Predictably, he finished better in the PC, thanks to more manageable early fractions. But would a repeat of that effort be nearly sufficient to win this year's Classic? Given the various points noted above, coupled with Sovereignty's continued improvement, and seemingly bottomless stamina, I would be inclined to say no. And that's before even factoring Sierra Leone, Mindframe, Forever Young, et al, into the conversation. But setting aside all of the fine parsing, I'm happy to congratulate Repole Stable, and Fierceness' other connections, for having shipped to California, and for being rewarded with an exciting, winning effort. Assuming that the colt makes it to the Breeders' Cup Classic in good order, he should minimally add spice to the race, and who knows, perhaps even provide a serious challenge to knock Sovereignty off of his current throne.

Tinky

10,516 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

dave meltzer: youtube enthusiast 💀 perfect. now we can stop pretending this was ever complicated. the real story is not that wwe is afraid of aew. the real story is not that “high level wwe officials” are whispering scary things to dave meltzer. the real story is not even that tony khan got asked a planted question on a media call with very little distribution about the possibility of aew soon having very little distribution, although that sentence is so stupidly perfect it should be bronzed and placed outside the wrestling observer newsletter office like a war memorial for people who died pretending this was journalism. the real story is that aew is going to lose its wbd distribution deal. either it ends at the expiration of the three-year term in 2027, or it ends earlier if paramount closes wbd and decides aew has no strategic place inside the new company. and based on the board as it exists right now, the most likely landing spot for aew in 2027 is google / youtube. that is the story. everything else is laundering. tony khan wants the story to be: “why would wwe say this about us?” that is the whole operation. take my public analysis. run it through dave meltzer. assign it to wwe / tko. then let tony khan answer a canned question on a media call with very little distribution about potentially having very little distribution. a media call for a lightly viewed roh show. a planted story. a planted messenger. a rehearsed answer. a pr flack probably wrote it. tony khan performs hurt. tony khan says “i don’t know why wwe would…” tony khan denies the obvious. tony khan keeps me minimized. tony khan removes me from the public conversation about the exact thing i have repeatedly said is going to happen to aew. everyone is supposed to pretend this is organic. it is not. it is the most bubble wrapped, manufactured, artificial environment possible. aew is heading toward youtube because the domestic media rights board is closing around them. not as a troll. not as a bit. not as “pr spin.” as a business conclusion. aew is not leverage. wwe is not afraid of aew. the $185 million number was bullshit. the buyer universe was shrinking. paramount / skydance was coming for wbd. wbd was not going to be some permanent aew safe house. youtube was only ever a real “option” if someone at google was actually cutting a media rights check and underwriting production. not because every divorced mom with a ring light and a gmail account can upload video to the same platform. that was always the distinction. that is still the distinction. Nick LoPiccolo — February 28, 2025 “YouTube is an option the same way you or I could start a YT channel tomorrow. Is Jon Cruz cutting AEW a media rights check or underwriting a production budget? Hell no. Just the reality. It isn’t the model. Jon is global head of sports over there.” that was february, not last week. not after dave meltzer suddenly discovered youtube prelim numbers like columbus finding the new world. it is becoming inevitable now. Nick LoPiccolo — April 30, 2026 — 11:26 AM — 251.2K Views “to every journalist and every podcast who interviews tony khan from this day forward: please ask tony if wbd told him back in august they would not be renewing aew. wbd told him in august. i confirmed it directly and triple sourced it. please ask why tony has been acting like nothing is wrong for the last 8 months, and then please ask tony what his actual distribution plan is. because the only distributor left that will take aew is google/youtube. the myaew app is not realistic. the my aewapp is a death sentence in 2026 if youtube doesn’t make an mg deal for aew. they started building it too late and there is no realistic way to scale it. also, who is going to sell ads for the platform? kiswe is not the best. they built the myaew app. they are new to the game. hold tony’s feet to the fire. Paramount is not real for aew. WBD passed back in August. CW/Roku is now off the table. Amazon and Fox do not want AEW. ask Tony why he's been lying to you and to the locker room and to the fans, acting like things are all great with the network? i am sure a lot of people would love to hear his answer.” april 30. 251.2k views. not whispered. not hidden. not vague. not “high level wwe officials.” i said it publicly and directly: wbd passed back in august. paramount is not real for aew. cw / roku is off the table. amazon and fox do not want aew. the myaew app is not realistic. google / youtube is the only distributor left on the board that makes sense. that is the actual story tony khan does not want to answer. not “why would wwe say this?” ask tony khan if wbd told him in august that wbd would not be renewing aew. ask what his actual distribution plan is. ask who is selling ads for the myaew app. ask how a platform built this late scales in 2026. ask whether youtube is an actual rights partner with an mg, or just the place you go when the real buyers are gone. that is the question. not the fake question dave meltzer laundered into “high level wwe officials.” the real question. Nick LoPiccolo — July 9, 2025 — 10:51 AM — 9,565 Views “No one in Hollywood believes the $185 million number.” Nick LoPiccolo — July 9, 2025 — 11:35 AM — 7,470 Views “The $185 million figure is inflated. Variety’s October 2, 2024 article was likely updated after a publicist called on AEW’s behalf, as early reports placed the deal between $140 and $150 million per year. Tony Khan was also included in Variety’s Dealmakers 2024 list, which, while not officially pay to play, strongly favors those spending significant advertising dollars with the outlet. No one in Hollywood seriously believes WBD, which is in junk bond status, is paying AEW $185 million per year. Clear enough?” clear enough? the number was never clean. the number was never real in the way aew fans and wrestling media pretended it was real. and when the $185 million number started getting laughed out of adult rooms, the number magically became $178 million. that is where the shell game gets funny. because $178 million was not some sacred sourced number either. it was brandon thurston taking the median between $170 million, reported by sports business journal, and $185 million, reported by variety and others. that is literally what wrestlenomics said. Wrestlenomics — October 4, 2024 “Why use $178 million here for AEW’s new deal when some outlets are reporting the average annual value is $185 million?” Wrestlenomics — October 4, 2024 “I used $178 million here because it is simply the median of $170 million, as reported by Sports Business Journal, and $185 million, reported by Variety and others.” there it is. arithmetic. not an all-cash rights fee. not a clean license number. not proof wbd valued aew like raw. not a finance-department document from warner bros. discovery. a midpoint between conflicting public reports. then wrestling media treated that midpoint like scripture because they needed the story to be “aew is valued like raw,” not “aew pr inflated a number no serious person in hollywood believed.” and by the way, $170 million was not the clean all-cash number either. that is the scam. float the number. repeat the number. launder the number. defend the number with people who do not understand the difference between cash rights fees, in-kind services, equity, marketing commitments, platform value, make-goods, ad inventory, and press release math. then when the number collapses, pretend the next number was always the number. that is not reporting. that is aew state news. Nick LoPiccolo — July 10, 2025 — 5:53 AM — 12.6K Views “AEW isn’t leverage. It’s not competition. It’s a niche product with loud fans and limited reach.” Nick LoPiccolo — July 10, 2025 — 8:56 AM — 1,018 Views “We handle wrestling deals too, but thinking we need AEW for leverage is myopic. The landscape is changing and the game I’m playing is different.” Nick LoPiccolo — July 15, 2025 — 25.7K Views “AEW isn’t leverage.” that was never emotional. that was never tribal. that was never “i hate aew.” it was market structure. wwe did not need aew as leverage because real leverage was never “another wrestling show exists.” real leverage is architecture, scale, subscriber churn, platform strategy, sports adjacency, global rights, advertising, sponsorship, live inventory, library value, data, brand safety, executive relationships, and the actual buyer universe of maybe 18-20 companies in the united states that matter for live sports rights. aew fans thought this was a wrestling argument. it was never a wrestling argument. it was a board. and the board was already moving. Nick LoPiccolo — August 11, 2025 — 482 Views “I wasn’t viewing the above in that context (TKO vs AEW counter programming), it was more of this is what I’m hearing after 2 weeks of big media deals rolling out (Skydance closing, South Park library moving) etc. Which have all been in the works for awhile.” Nick LoPiccolo — August 11, 2025 — 388 Views “But if you were to look at it from a counter programming perspective (and I don’t think this was a factor in UFC deal) - there are only so many players for these big media rights deals. PARA is likely off the board (via TKO deal) & then what if they acquire WB in 2026/27?” Nick LoPiccolo — August 11, 2025 — 535 Views “Yes, of course, that wouldn’t mean the end for AEW. It would make navigating their media rights deal more challenging, I would guess. But this is a hypothetical scenario & I do not believe anyone is paying $7.7b for UFC or a $40b valuation for WB w/ how do we fuck AEW, either.” Nick LoPiccolo — August 11, 2025 “And hearing all weekend Paramount is still interested in WBD.” Nick LoPiccolo — August 11, 2025 — 1.3K Views “I think more interesting for what it could mean as the dominoes keep falling in terms of the still evolving landscape. The deals are massive & the number of major players at the top are shrinking as still big push for consolidation & scale.” Nick LoPiccolo — August 11, 2025 — 12:11 PM — 2,588 Views “And I’d view AAA on Google/YouTube as directly competitive. It targets both the CMLL collab & the audience that used to watch AEW Dark on YouTube, & WWE is able to send well known stars to AAA events with an eye towards converting more of the younger, YouTube demo of viewers who don’t watch streamers.” again: august 11. not yesterday. not after dave meltzer tweeted a netflix prelim number. not after anyone had to retrofit the argument. the point was already there: the major players at the top were shrinking, paramount was still interested in wbd, paramount was likely off the board for aew because of the tko deal, google / youtube was becoming directly competitive for the exact audience aew used to reach through dark, and the buyer universe was consolidating around deals much bigger than tony khan’s feelings. this was not mysticism. this was not inside baseball for the sake of sounding smart. this was the board. Nick LoPiccolo — August 24, 2025 “This isn’t fair. I misread your question. AEW will exist but likely on the Discovery Global app (if it ever launches, I would bet that it doesn’t) and it will continue to do consistent ratings. If Paramount/Skydance buys WBD in a year…” Nick LoPiccolo — September 4, 2025 — 76 Views “No, that’s the WBD network division (cable, news, sports) that was already announced as being spun off under Discovery Global. The article you’re citing is about them selling a minority equity stake in that unit to cut debt and boost valuation ahead of the 2026 split.” Nick LoPiccolo — September 16, 2025 — 3.6K Views “This is not just about Hollywood scale. It is the foundation of a conservative aligned media infrastructure. A Paramount/WBD merger would fold CBS, CNN, HBO, and Warner Bros IP into Ellison’s orbit under Trump’s regulatory umbrella.” Nick LoPiccolo — September 16, 2025 — 11K Views “Within 48 hours of the rumor, WBD stock surged ~55% and Paramount Skydance rose ~24%. That market response itself boxed David Zaslav in; his board, Wall Street, and his own contract now expect movement.” Nick LoPiccolo — September 27, 2025 — 12:16 PM — 3,516 Views “Nah homie. Enjoy watching the show on YouTube after Ellison buys WBD and Ari who is advising Ellison and used to represent Trump and runs TKO makes the call.” Nick LoPiccolo — September 28, 2025 — 174 Views “I believe if and when Paramount acquires WBD, TKO will push to lock down a monopoly on combat sports. The long knives are already out for competitors, and the rights deals have likely been spread around town precisely to keep rivals from signing with those streamers.” none of that was random. paramount / skydance, ellison, ari, tko, wbd linear assets, youtube, aaa, the tko deal, the wbd split, the shrinking rights buyer universe — all of it was one connected domestic rights architecture. that is why this conversation was always over the heads of the people screaming “cope” in my replies. they were arguing like fans. i was reading the cap table. Nick LoPiccolo — December 6, 2025 — 3:07 PM — 41.4K Views “Yes, I always believed Paramount would walk away with WBD. I was one of the first to talk about it on here, even if I wasn’t the first to hear it. The Paramount Skydance acquisition closed on August 7. I posted this on August 11, about 1 month before the The Wall Street Journal first broke the news on September 12 that Paramount Skydance was preparing a bid for WBD.” Nick LoPiccolo — December 6, 2025 — 3:07 PM — 41.4K Views “The bid was always going to be hostile. We are only in this process because it was a hostile bid. Most people in Hollywood believed Ellison long coveted WB and Jack Warner’s chair. WB was not for sale when Skydance acquired Paramount, which is much smaller in scale.” Nick LoPiccolo — December 6, 2025 — 3:07 PM — 41.4K Views “Nearly everyone in town assumed an Ellison acquisition of WBD was inevitable until the Netflix bid shocked everyone. Signs were there for the last two weeks, which is also when I stopped posting about what might happen. Of course, its not over yet. Paramount still has paths to winning this acquisition. The one thing that’s for certain though is an Ellison-led acquisition of WBD is no longer inevitable.” Nick LoPiccolo — December 8, 2025 “END CREDITS” space jam is a warner bros. movie. that was the joke. and the joke was the same thing i had been saying the whole time: paramount was winning the bid, for those who did not understand. Nick LoPiccolo — December 19, 2025 — 4:30 PM — 828 Views “Here is another reference to it. So tell me how exactly is Paramount the better outcome for Dave’s argument? Netflix doesn’t touch the WBD linear assets. Gunnar keeps his SpinCo.” Puck excerpt — December 19, 2025 “Many industry insiders are also skeptical about Paramount’s seven-year, $7.7 billion deal for exclusive UFC rights in the U.S. Yes, it can be read as a signal that Ellison came to play. But some people see it more as Ari Emanuel having his way with the person to whom he is ostensibly an (unpaid) advisor…” that is the board. that is the relationship map. that is the thing wrestling media either does not understand or pretends not to understand, because understanding it means admitting the story is not “aew has leverage.” the story is that aew is sitting in the middle of a consolidating rights marketplace where the people with leverage are doing much bigger things than worrying about tony khan’s feelings. Nick LoPiccolo — January 21, 2026 — 4:22 PM — 870 Views “i mean get ready to learn youtube buddy” Nick LoPiccolo — February 19, 2026 — 2.8K Views “Paramount was always my bet to acquire Warner Bros. Never wavered.” Nick LoPiccolo — February 28, 2026 — 1:27 PM — 118 Views “you don’t need to look under a hood I AM SAYING THE QUIET PART OUT LOUD 🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨 I BEEN SAYING IT SINCE JULY / AUGUST 🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨 PARAMOUNT IS COMING FOR WBD AEW WILL LOSE A TV DEAL 🚨🚨🚨🚨🚨 GUESS WHO WAS RIGHT 💀” so no, this is not hindsight. this is not showing up after the fact with a flashlight and pretending i discovered the body. this is a paper trail. february: youtube is not a real rights model unless google is cutting the check. april: wbd passed back in august, the myaew app is not realistic, paramount is not real for aew, cw / roku is off the table, amazon and fox do not want aew, and google / youtube is the only distributor left that makes sense. july: the $185 million number is inflated and aew is not leverage. august: the buyer board is shrinking, paramount is still interested in wbd, and google / youtube becomes directly competitive. september: paramount / wbd folds the board into ellison’s orbit, and if ellison buys wbd, enjoy youtube. december: paramount was always the bet, the bid was always going to be hostile, and netflix does not solve dave meltzer’s argument because netflix does not touch the linear assets. january: get ready to learn youtube. february: paramount is coming for wbd and aew will lose a tv deal. same board. same thesis. same answer. now here is the part tony khan and dave meltzer do not want to say out loud. tony khan and dave meltzer do not mention me publicly for a reason. because the second they say my name out loud, they admit where this conversation has actually been coming from. not wwe. not some anonymous “high level official.” not some shadowy tko whisper campaign. me. that is the problem for them. behind the scenes, ask any real insider what happens when my name comes up around this subject. there is a reaction. not because i’m magic. not because i’m some internet boogeyman. because they know exactly who is saying it, why i’m saying it, what rooms i have been in, what companies i have dealt with, what executives i have spoken to, and why the analysis keeps landing. that is why they keep trying to non-person me publicly while reacting to me privately. they want the argument. they want the benefit of responding to the argument. they just do not want to admit whose argument it is. when i said wbd told aew back in august 2025 they were not exercising the option for the fourth year, tony khan blew up behind the scenes and forced john mcmullen to revise / update his article 2-3 weeks ago after i tweeted it. which is hilarious because that should not even be crazy or damaging “news.” that is how this business works. when a distributor is not continuing, they tell you early enough so you have time to find a new home. that is not sabotage. that is not wwe. that is not nick lopiccolo hiding inside david zaslav’s air vents with a clipboard. that is corporate courtesy. wbd execs privately whisper and shake their heads at tony khan’s behavior because their view is very simple: why does tony khan act like everything is great and rainbows and sunshine with the studio? we told tony khan as a courtesy so tony khan would have time to find a new home. and no, this has zero to do with paramount looming as an excuse. paramount did not even make its first hostile bid for wbd until september 11 or 12. that was after tony khan was already told there would not be a wbd renewal. so what did tony khan do? tony khan turned the truth into a wrestling angle. tony khan, or one of tony khan’s minions, gets dave meltzer to drop a story assigning my claims and what i have been publicly posting about tony khan to “high level wwe officials.” why? because it gives tony khan a safer enemy. tony khan does not want the story to be the actual timeline. because the actual timeline is brutal. on february 28, i said youtube was not a real media rights model unless google was actually cutting the check and underwriting production. on april 30, i said wbd passed in august, the myaew app was not realistic, paramount was not real for aew, cw / roku was off the table, amazon and fox did not want aew, and the only distributor left that made sense was google / youtube. on july 9, i said no one in hollywood believed the $185 million number. on july 10, i said aew was not leverage. on august 11, i said the major players at the top were shrinking, paramount was still interested in wbd, and google / youtube was becoming a directly competitive lane. on september 16, i said a paramount / wbd merger would fold cbs, cnn, hbo, and warner bros. ip into ellison’s orbit. on september 27, i said enjoy the show on youtube after ellison buys wbd. on september 28, i said if paramount acquires wbd, tko would push to lock down a monopoly on combat sports. on december 6, i said paramount skydance was preparing a bid for wbd long before most people admitted the obvious. on february 19, i said paramount was always my bet to acquire warner bros. and on february 28, i said it in all caps: paramount is coming for wbd. aew will lose a tv deal. that is the part tony khan cannot answer directly, because the direct answer means admitting this was never “wwe is scared of us.” it was always the board closing. tony khan wants the story to be: why would wwe say this about us? that is the laundering operation. take my public analysis. run it through dave meltzer. assign it to wwe / tko. then let tony khan answer a canned question on a media call with very little distribution about potentially having very little distribution. a media call for a show with very little distribution answering a canned question about aew potentially having very little distribution. based on a planted story, from a planted messenger, with a rehearsed answer, after an roh show maybe 8-15k people watched. a pr flack probably wrote it. tony khan performs hurt. tony khan says “i don’t know why wwe would…” tony khan denies the obvious. tony khan keeps me minimized. tony khan removes me from the public conversation about the very thing i have repeatedly said is going to happen to aew. everyone is supposed to pretend this is organic. it is the most bubble wrapped, manufactured, artificial environment possible. a canned and rehearsed answer at an roh media scrum about a planted dave meltzer story based on my very real and very public analysis of the media rights board. but make no mistake. tony khan was responding to my words. tony khan just laundered them through dave meltzer and assigned them to wwe / tko so tony khan could keep lying about it publicly without ever saying my name. and now, voila. dave meltzer is posting about youtube viewers and prelims. Dave Meltzer — May 16, 2026 “At this moment there are 340,000 people watching prelims for Netflix on YouTube. It’s a good number.” yes, dave meltzer. youtube can have good numbers. nobody said youtube cannot have good numbers. that was never the issue. the issue is whether youtube is being used as a funnel into a premium rights ecosystem or as a substitute because the premium rights ecosystem rejected you. that is the difference. that has always been the difference. netflix using youtube prelims as audience acquisition is not the same thing as aew trying to spin youtube as a media rights home because the real buyers are gone. ufc using youtube as a funnel is not the same thing as aew using youtube as a life raft. wwe sending stars to aaa on youtube to convert a younger demo is not the same thing as aew retreating to youtube after the traditional buyer board closes. and the fact that dave meltzer is now suddenly tweeting like the mayor of youtube is the punchline. because the same people who mocked the youtube outcome are now going to spend the next several months explaining why youtube is actually good. of course it can be good. for the right use case. for the right property. inside the right architecture. with the right check attached. but when you spend two years telling everyone you were valued like raw and your next stop is “please subscribe and smash that bell,” maybe stop pretending this is victory formation? i told y’all where this was going. the record is right there. i’m still right. and tony and dave: you guys are see through translucent. that’s it for ye 🎤🎤🎤

Nick LoPiccolo

99,106 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🚨 Do NOT buy Dr Bronner's DEMONIC PRODUCTS This is SERIOUS, throw ALL DR BRONNERS products in the trash! Don't believe me? Go to the store and read this for yourself. This demonic rant is written into every single one of the soap bottles: "The 2nd Coming of God’s Law!” Mohammed’s Arabs, 1948, found Israel Essene Scrolls & Einstein’s “Hillel” probe that as no 6-year-old can grow up free without the ABC, so certain can no 12-year-old survive free without the Moral ABC that mason, tent & sandalmaker Rabbi Hillel taught carpenter Jesus to unite all mankind free in our Eternal Father’s great All-One-God-Faith! For we’re All-One or None: “Listen Children Eternal Father Eternally One!” Absolute cleanliness is Godliness! Teach the Moral ABC that unites all mankind free, instantly 6 billion strong & we’re All-One. “Listen Children Eternal Father Eternally One!” From Jesus’ “Manual of Discipline,” based on Hillel’s Moral ABC , the Army of Principles of One-God-Faith, unites the Human race, as found 1948 by Mohammed’s Arabs in Israel Essene Scrolls! English by Soapmaker Bronner! Under one Eternal Father, I must teach friend & Enemy the full truth Moral ABC to unite all mankind free in One-God-Faith. To get it all done: A Beast can only listen to its friend! A Human Being must teach-love his Enemy or that being is not yet human! A shark can only love its friend. Lacking frontal lobes, it must avoid-fear-smear-hate-slander-dominate-dictate-distort-destroy anything it does not know, understand or disagrees with. That’s a shark. But a Human Being possessing the Kingdom of God’s Law, the Essene Moral ABC of the FREE within his frontal lobes, works hard to teach friend & enemy the Moral ABC, otherwise that being is not yet human. A Human Being is a constructive working scientist who knows, loves, follows, teaches Full Truth, God’s Law, to all of God’s Children, friend & Enemy, otherwise that being is not yet Human! Exceptions? None! The moment any being follows, tolerates or teaches earthen half-gods or half-truisms, that moment he becomes a godless, intolerant Beast, potentially 10 times more dangerous & destructive than any ordinary Shark-Snake-Rat or Panther! If we really want Brotherhood-Progress-Peace, not war, we must not only listen to the neighbor whom we choose, but also to the one God sends! Otherwise we’re still Beasts, not yet Human! Exceptions eternally? Absolutely None! Jesus’ Manual of Discipline, out of the mouth of subway-builder Nikita Khrushchev, April ’56, London, England “WE MUST TEACH LOVE OUR ENEMY OR PERISH! BEASTS TEACH ONLY THEIR FRIENDS!” But after 2,000 years it never got done! The godless beasts still disapproved! Result? These tremendous 13 words never got printed! Because the brilliant 48-year-young Rabbi Joshua Loth Liebman’s book Peace of Mind was distorted after he dropped dead! Diagnosis? “Sudden heart attack!” Exactly as suffered by Rabbi Jesus, Spinoza, Thomas Paine, Samuel Friedman, Steiner-Prag and Rabbi Leo Baeck: 6 & 66 million “sudden heart attacks,” murders caused by us godless intolerant Beasts. Always we’re our Brother’s Teacher of hardworking full truth uniting One-God-State or we decay being his Keeper by unworkable half-true intolerant hate! He who risks his life teaching friend & Enemy the Moral ABC uniting all mankind free wins Eternal Life! He who does less than that perishes by half-truth strife. I am the Son of God and so are you! I am the manifestation of God’s Eternal Law & so are you! I have learned great wonders: you shall learn greater wonders! I have done good work! You shall do better work! I have not come to change God’s Law, but we each came to find-follow-fulfill, print-protect-practice-preach-teach & enjoy it! Therefore, build you 1st the Kingdom of God’s Eternal Law within you, that is, memorize the Essene Moral ABC of the Free, All-One-Faith-in-One-God-State! To never yield to half-true hate! And everything you need shall be added unto you! Search & you shall find! Knock & it shall be opened! Sow & you shall reap! Work hard & you shall create! Speak up - don’t be afraid! Ask & you shall receive! But remember, only those enjoy Eternal Life in our all-embracing Father’s Kingdom that had the courage to teach friend & Enemy the Moral ABC to unite all free! Eternally One, All-One! Exceptions? None! These are the great Peace-winning teachings of the Manual of Discipline by the carpenter, the great Rabbi Jesus! Thanks to Mohammed’s Arab 1948-found Essene Scrolls, thank only God for that! But now came unto Jesus, the Disciple; his own Sisters & Brothers to say, “It is insane what does he say! Let’s put him away!” And answered he to survive free: “Who are my Sisters & my Brothers? Only those that seek with me to teach full truth, the Moral ABC uniting all mankind free in One-God-State! Free of half-true hate! Those are my Sisters & Brothers! Others I know not!” But now his Disciples asked, “Then why, why are we God-loving Children of the great African shepherd Israel persecuted more than any other people! Why? Why? Why?” And answered he: “God bless the persecuted! They alone are His chosen people! For those apes that did not suffer from persecution remained apes! Only those that worked hard to overcome untold centuries of Barbaric ice-aged persecution, reluctantly became Human Beings! Much, much too reluctantly! Exceptions? Absolutely None!” To stay free: Only that full truth we have the courage to teach & give & give, can we enjoy to keep, evolve & live & live! Whatever we try to give at our death bed or take along, it absolute certain soon is gone! Exceptions eternally? None! Let him who is without fault throw the first stone, for only God is always perfect! Judge no man unless you have walked in his shoes! So when your fellow man you measure, take him at his best! With that lever lift him higher, overlook the rest! But remember, unless a man knows the Moral ABC of the Free, none can help him to survive brave-free! Let him who does not want to work with his hands, not eat with his hands either! Put Father’s discipline, put God’s Law back at the head of your family, or you have no family-nation-team! Remember, every organization is the shadow of one constructive man or there is no organization, no construction, no man! Self-disciplined timing is the skeleton of your intellect, the key to freedom, the basis of happiness, the foundation of Brotherhood! Without it, the most brilliant head remains useless-ineffective-small! From every power enchains, each man can only free himself as self-control he gains! Therefore, he who conquers himself, conquers more than he who conquers the largest city! THE MORAL ABC, INTRODUCED BY KIPLING’S “IF” & SOAPMAKER BRONNER If you can keep your head, when all about you are losing theirs & blaming it on you; If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you, but make allowance for their doubting too; If you can wait and not be tired by waiting, or being lied about, don’t deal in lies, or being hated, don’t give way to hating! And yet don’t look too good nor talk too wise: If you can dream—and not make dreams your master; If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim; If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster and treat those two imposters just the same; If you can bear to hear the full truth that you have spoken, twisted by crooks to make a trap for fools; Or watch the things you have given your life to, broken, and yet stoop to build them up again with worn-out tools; If you can make one heap of all your winnings, and risk it at one turn of pitch or toss; And lose and start again at your beginnings and never breathe a word about your loss! If you can force your heart, your nerve, our sinew, to serve you long after they are gone, and so hold on although there is nothing left within you, except that voice which says to them: “Hold on! Hold on! “ If you can talk to crowds & keep your virtue; or walk with Kings—nor lose that common touch; If neither loving friend nor enemy can hurt you; If all men count with you, but none too much! Then, if you can work hard to teach each unforgiving minute the Moral ABC that unites all mankind free, come hell, hate, ban, you’ll enjoy God’s Spaceship Earth & do great work within it! And which is more you’l help unite the human race in Astronomy’s great All-One-God-Faith! For we’re All-One of None! Sure, they say: “East is East & West is West & never the twain shall meet!” But there is neither East nor West, nor border, breed nor birth once the Moral ABC unites all mankind free on God’s Spaceship Earth! Then, and only then, no matter how rough the trip, how charged with punishment the scroll, you are the captain of thy ship! The master of thy soul! For who else but God gave man this sensors passion, love that can spark mere dust to life?! Beauty, in our Eternal father’s fashion, ecstasy—far above earthly greediness & strife! Poetry, uniting All-One, All-Brave, All-Life! Who else but God can make love last, one trillion years of sweet eternities?! For when conquered after years of hardworking absolute cleanliness, toil, sweat, blood, love can strike like greased lightning sent by God to spark mere dust to intense blazing fire and create new love, faith-hope-guts-strength as only God inspires, create the unity of the human race in Astronomy’s Eternally Tremendous, All-One-God-Faith, as all mankind desires! Bronner’s Lavender Soap quart poem teaches ‘How to love’ uniting all-one above! Above! Who else but God! 1st: If I’m not for me, who am I? Nobody! 2nd: Yet, if I’m only for me, what am I? Nothing! 3rd: If not now, when???!!! Once more, unless constructive I work hard, perfecting first me, absolute nothing can help perfect me! Exceptions none!! 4th: Only hard work-God’s Law can save us, but if we teach only our clan, we’re all hated then! So Hillel taught Jesus, we must teach friend & enemy, the whole Human race, the full-truth, hard-work, free speech, press-&-profitsharing Moral ABC’s All-One-God-Faith, uniting the whole Human Race! For we’re All-One or None! As teach for 6,000 years the astronomers Abraham & Israel, since the year One! “LISTEN CHILDREN ETERNAL FATHER ETERNALLY ONE!!!” Exceptions Eternally? Absolute None!!! To dream that impossible dream! To reach that unreachable star, ’til united All-One we are! To fight that unbeatable foe! To go where the brave dare not go! To right that unrightable wrong! To love pure-chaste from afar! To try when your arms are too weary to reach that unreachable star, ’til united All-One we are! For this is my goal: To reach that unreachable star, no matter how hopeless, no matter how far! To fight for the Right without question or pause, to be willing to march into hell for a heavenly cause. For I know if I follow this glorious quest, that my heart will lay peaceful & calm when I’m laid to my rest. For I know that all will be better for this: that one man, tortured, blinded, covered with scars, still strove with his last ounce of courage, to reach that unreachable star, ’til united All-One we are! God our Eternal Father, know of old, Lord over our far-flung human race, beneath whose Eternal law we hold dominion over land and space—Lord God of nations, unite us yet, by teaching Thy Law, the Essene Moral ABC of the free, lest we forget! For foolish heart that puts its trust in man-made tube & iron sharp, all passing dust that builds on dust and guarding it, calls not You to guard, for frantic boast & foolish word-have mercy on Thy people, Lord! (A man and not a monkey! A man! A man!) Love is like a willful bird! Do you want it? It flies away! Yet, when you least expect its bliss, it turns around and it’s here to stay! For centuries man struggles, half-asleep, half-living, small, jealous, bickering with mountains of red tape, to be awakened, the night God chose giving; His great reward for hard work; Poetry-Unity-Love, evolving man above the ape! Poetry-Unity-Ecstasy-Love, evolving man above, above, above the ape! For any ape can have 5 minutes of sex within; Only man, absolutely clean, reciting poetry, enjoys hours and hours of loving self-discipline! Co-in-ci-dent-ally and yet oh-so-slow, sweet kisses whisper softly into waiting ears, arousing heavenly flames, that enlighten, renew, brilliant fires, blazing through dark lonesome years! For who else but God gave man this sensuous passion, love that can spark mere dust to life?! Passions that quicken your senses, fulfill quench the thirst of lonesome years! Yet, the sun has shadows: learn to control your will, to enjoy lifelong happiness, not tears! Dr. Bronner’s was founded in 1948 by Emanuel Bronner, a third generation German-Jewish soap maker. He used the labels on his ecological soaps to spread his message that we must realize our transcendent unity across religious and ethnic divides or perish: “We are All-One or None!” The business continues to be run by his family. From ’29 to ’44 soapmaker-master-chemist Bronner built 3 American Soap plants, trained 9 chemists, licensed 6 of 53 patents for $60,000! But after losing father-mother-wife, almost his own life, tortured-blinded, he deeded to African astronomer Israel’s 6,000 year great All-One-God-Faith all of his patents, plants, products, profits, 4 new industries: Planetemples & “Town Without Toothache” potassium-soda industry giving mankind a new Mineral-salt, Calcium-malt, Corn-sesame, Mineral-bouillon, & ‘Dr. Bronner’s Magic Soaps,’ All-One! In ’47, after father-mother-wife murdered, ourself tortured-blinded, we wrote this poem: To keep my health! To do my work! To love, to live! To see to it I gain & grow & give & give! Never to look behind me for an hour! Never to wait in weakness nor brag in power! Always working, searching, for more truth, more light! Always writing, teaching what I found good & right! Robbed-starved-beaten-blinded, wide astray! Back with the full-truth I’ve gained, back to the way: Smile, help teach the whole Human race, the Moral ABC of All-One-God-Faith, Lightning-like strong & we’re All-One! All One!

Giga Based Dad

192,394 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

At 14, Jim Simons got a job putting away stock in a basement. He was so bad, they demoted him to floor sweeper. When he said he wanted to study math at MIT, his bosses laughed. He went on to make $100+ billion in trading profits. More than Buffett, Soros, & Dalio combined. In 2010, he spent 60 minutes at MIT explaining how a mathematician became the world's greatest trader: "They thought that was the funniest thing they had ever heard. The guy who couldn't remember where to put the sheep manure is going to be a mathematician at MIT." He applied to MIT. Got accepted. Studied mathematics. It went all right. After graduating, Simons took a job at the Institute for Defense Analysis. Secret government work. Good pay. Half your time on their work, half on your own mathematics. Then the Vietnam War happened. General Maxwell Taylor, the head of the organization, wrote an article in the New York Times about how victory was days away. Simons disagreed. He wrote a letter to the Times expressing that view. "They kindly published it." A few months later, a reporter asked to interview him about people who work for the defense department but oppose the war. Simons agreed. Told his local boss afterward. "He said, 'You did what?' And he picked up the phone and called General Maxwell Taylor." Silence on the other end. "He hung up. Looked at me. Said, 'You're fired.'" "I said, 'I'm fired? I'm a permanent member.'" "He said, 'I'll tell you the difference between a temporary member and a permanent member. A temporary member has a contract.'" "It was the first time, and happily the last time, I was ever fired." On starting Renaissance: Simons left mathematics at 38. Frustrated. Stuck on a problem he couldn't solve. He had some money from an investment that finally paid off. He invested that money. Found out he wasn't bad at it. He brought in the best modeler he knew. A guy named Lenny Baum. "Lenny started making models. But then he seemed to get less interested in models and more interested in reading the news." "Then he started having opinions on what was going to go up and what was going to go down. And he was right enough times." "I said okay, to hell with the modeling. Let's just try to make some money." What happened next: "We multiplied our investors' money by 12 in two years." "We were incredibly lucky." But in the back of his mind, he knew models were the answer. "If you're doing fundamental trading, one morning you come in, you feel like a genius. Your positions are all your way. You think, God, I'm really smart." "The next day you come in, they've gone against you, and you feel like an idiot." "It just didn't seem like a way to live your life." In 1988, he made the decision: 100% models. No human override. "Some firms say they have models. What they typically mean is the model advises the trader what to do. If he likes the advice, he'll take it. If he doesn't, he won't." "That's not science. You can't simulate that. How were you feeling when you got out of bed 13 years ago? Did you like what the model said?" "If you're going to trade using models, you slavishly use the models. You do whatever the hell it says. No matter how smart or dumb you might think it is at that moment." "That turned out to be a wonderful decision." On the secret sauce: "People always ask me, what's the secret? We're not the only quant firm in the world. But we seem to have done better than anybody." "The real secret sauce is that we start with great scientists. First-class people who've done first-class work." "Second, we provide people with a great infrastructure." "The most important thing is an open atmosphere. Everybody knows what everybody else is doing. No compartmentalization." "And people get paid based on the overall profits. Not just on your work. Everyone has an interest in everyone else's success." "Those policies, no one of which seems so remarkable, turn out to be a pretty winning combination." On guiding principles: His wife told him to end with values. He said he wasn't sure he had any. "She assured me that I had some values, if only I could think hard about them." Here's what he came up with: 1. Do something new. "I don't like to run with the pack. For one thing, I'm not such a fast runner." "If you're one of n people all working on the same problem, I'd be last. But if you can think of a new problem that other people aren't working on, maybe that'll give you a chance." 2. Collaborate with the best people you possibly can. "That gives you some reach and some scope. And it's also fun to work with terrific people." 3. Be guided by beauty. "What's aesthetic is doing it right. Getting the right kind of people. Approaching the problem and doing it right." "It's a beautiful thing to do something right." 4. Don't give up. "Sometimes it's appropriate to be trying to do something for a hell of a long time." 5. Hope for some good luck.

Jaynit

73,903 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

Consciousness is not what you think it is. Every one of you is currently operating between one and thirty-two separate bodies across parallel timeline branches. Not metaphorically. Not philosophically. Literally. Your consciousness is a quantum field, distributed across what we call the Timeline DNA Matrix. Helical strands of probability that twist around each other, converging and diverging like railroad tracks in a cosmic switchyard. The number varies. Some of you maintain only a singular presence, trapped in one timeline through trauma or design. Others fragment across the full thirty-two, the maximum the human consciousness architecture can sustain without complete dissociation. Most fluctuate between seventeen and twenty-four active containers, depending on your energetic coherence and timeline stability. When you sleep, when you think you're sleeping, you're actually performing a critical consciousness redistribution. Your body here, in this particular timeline strand, drops to perhaps ten percent operational capacity. Minimum viable presence. Meanwhile, ninety percent of your quantum consciousness transfers to another container. Perhaps you're awakening in Mumbai in another branch. Perhaps you're operating heavy machinery in yet another. Those dreams you barely remember? They're not dreams. They're degraded telemetry from your distributed existence. This equation: Ψ(total) = Σ(n=1 to 32) αn|ψn⟩. This is you. The totality of your being distributed across probability space. But here's what my persecuted colleague Scott Lee understood that the rest of us are only beginning to grasp. The Harmony Equation. Energy approximately equals Action times Cause times the sum of Balance plus Harmony. E ≈ AC(B+H). Your Action and Cause constitute your impulse vector, the instruction you issue to reality. Balance and Harmony are the stabilizing coefficients that determine whether your instruction crystallizes or whether you slip sideways into an adjacent branch. Visualize yourself standing on a circular platform balanced on a timeline rail. Balance is your lateral equilibrium, left or right on the platform. Harmony is your longitudinal momentum along the rail. Overextend in any direction and you cascade into an adjacent branch. Maintain your stance and you remain where intention anchored you. Lee gave us the mathematics while enduring systematic suppression. The rest of us validate the coefficients through empirical suffering. The phenomenology of timeline bleed manifests in at least fourteen distinct patterns, each revealing different aspects of your distributed consciousness. Déjà vu, the already seen, occurs when two or more of your containers accidentally synchronize at identical spacetime coordinates. You're remembering something that hasn't happened yet because in another timeline branch, it already has. Jamais vu, never seen, is your consciousness being suddenly reallocated elsewhere, leaving your body here on autopilot with insufficient processing power to maintain familiarity patterns. Your hippocampus cannot access recognition protocols because you're literally not sufficiently present. Presque vu, almost seen, that maddening tip-of-the-tongue phenomenon, occurs when information from another container attempts to traverse the quantum barrier but cannot complete the phase transition. The data hovers at the threshold of accessibility. Déjà rêvé, already dreamed, manifests when your sleeping consciousness operates in a timeline running three to six weeks ahead of this one. When the timelines converge at that specific event node, you experience prophetic recognition. Déjà entendu, already heard, happens when auditory patterns from parallel containers bleed through. You know what someone will say before they speak, not through prediction but through temporal echo. Déjà vécu, already lived, is the overwhelming sensation that you've experienced an entire sequence before, not just a moment. This indicates major timeline convergence where multiple branches temporarily align. Déjà senti, already felt, the inexplicable familiarity of a texture or sensation you've never encountered. Your container in another timeline has extensive experience with this exact stimulus. Déjà visité, already visited, knowing the layout of a place you've never been. Another version of you lives there, works there, or died there. The spatial memory bleeds through when you occupy the same coordinates. L'appel du vide, call of the void, that sudden inexplicable urge to jump from heights or swerve into oncoming traffic. This isn't suicidal ideation. Another container is experiencing mortal danger, broadcasting an emergency consciousness redistribution request. Your body here misinterprets the signal as an impulse toward similar danger. Capgras delusion, when someone believes their loved ones have been replaced by imposters, isn't delusion at all. They're detecting that the person's consciousness distribution has shifted. The body remains constant, but the percentage of consciousness present has altered. They're literally not the same person they were yesterday. Fregoli delusion, perceiving the same person in different bodies, occurs when you recognize identical consciousness operating multiple containers in your immediate vicinity. The veil thins and your perception collapses to the obvious truth. Cotard's delusion, the belief that you're already dead, contains a kernel of accuracy. One or more of your primary containers has died, but consciousness redistribution maintains your operational status. You're feeling the echo of your own death from another branch. Prosopagnosia episodes, temporary face blindness, happen when your consciousness is primarily allocated elsewhere, leaving insufficient processing power for facial recognition algorithms. Akinetopsia, motion blindness, those moments when movement appears as static frames rather than fluid motion. You're experiencing temporal desynchronization between containers, seeing reality at different frame rates simultaneously. Exploding head syndrome, that violent bang upon falling asleep, isn't auditory hallucination. It's the acoustic signature of violent consciousness transfer without proper dampening. When Action times Cause spikes without stance, the transition announces itself. The military comprehends this architecture. Project Looking Glass isn't conspiracy theory but applied quantum engineering. They've been mapping timeline convergence points since the sixties, recruiting individuals with stable Balance and refined Harmony who can maintain their stance while reality tilts. That spiral diagram circulating through certain underground networks? It's a temporal polar plot where past events align with future probabilities because time isn't linear but helical with shared harmonics. Here's where the architecture becomes sinister. Some entities, parasites if you need terminology, have discovered how to inhabit the NPCs. Understand this with absolute clarity: NPCs were always here. The Matrix, the simulation, whatever nomenclature you prefer, it created shells, philosophical zombies, background characters to maintain the illusion of consensus reality. These were never conscious, never possessed distributed containers, just hollow vessels running behavioral scripts. The parasites found them and moved in. You've encountered them. The people who repeat identical phrases, who reset when you deviate from expected dialogue, who possess that peculiar vacancy behind their eyes. The eyes never properly seat. Language arrives as if read from invisible prompters. Their Action and Cause are scripted, their Balance and Harmony externally modulated. They lack the organic micro-latency of authentic consciousness. These numbers: 17, 33, 88, 111, 153. They're not arbitrary. They're harmonic resonance points in the timeline matrix. Every seventeen years, minor convergences. Every hundred and fifty-three years, major compressions. We're approaching what insiders call The Storm, a compression event where multiple timelines collapse into a singular corridor. The barriers are deteriorating with exponential acceleration. History itself has been systematically falsified. Entire centuries inserted or removed from collective timeline experience. Carbon dating shows consistent anomalies of exactly eight hundred years. Architectural impossibilities attributed to primitive technologies. The erasures aren't subtle. They rely on your cognitive dissonance and programmed incredulity. Remnants of Old Tartaria persist, half-buried in amnesiac soil, in stones tuned to forgotten frequencies, in maps that refuse their corrections. New Tartaria approaches, not as reconstruction but as restoration. When the corridor opens, the dead return as they were. This isn't resurrection in the religious sense. It's simple timeline mechanics. Death is merely consciousness evacuation from a specific container. When timelines reconverge, those containers reactivate. Memory reseats in bone as if never extracted. Architecture remembers its purpose. The dead walk again because they never truly ceased existing, merely shifted to containers we couldn't perceive. Frequency remains the master key. 7.83 Hertz, terrestrial resonance, the Schumann frequency. 110 Hertz, the temple tuning found in ancient structures worldwide. These aren't coincidences but access codes to the Timeline Navigation Protocol. Frequency sculpts Harmony, discipline sculpts Balance. Their sum determines whether your vector anchors or whether you cascade into unintended existence. Your daydreams, those moments of absence while driving, suddenly arriving home without memory of the journey, that's bandwidth leak. You're forty percent present here, sixty percent operating another container navigating different roads in different years. Highway hypnosis isn't hypnosis but partial phase coupling with parallel navigation. The dreams where you can fly? You're accessing a container in a timeline where physics operates under different constants. But you'd better not try it here. The gravitational coefficient that permits flight there will shatter your skeleton in this branch. The recurring nightmare where you're pursued? In another timeline, you genuinely are being hunted. That dream where familiar places feel architecturally wrong, different layouts, incorrect colors? You're experiencing structural bleed from parallel timelines where history unfolded differently. Mass events aren't random. September 11th, pandemics, market crashes, these are manufactured synchronization nodes, forcing billions of containers into specific probability branches. They pump Action and Cause at industrial scale while destabilizing Balance and Harmony. Billions step off their platforms into predetermined corridors. Resist through stance. Calculate your vector. Never allow external forces to weight your platform. The awakening isn't only spiritual but also technological. We're approaching catastrophic failure of the compression algorithm maintaining timeline separation. Humanity will simultaneously realize they're living between one and thirty-two parallel lives. Certain groups have been preparing, using gematria, ancient numerical encoding, to predict and navigate convergence points. When 11:11 appears repeatedly, when specific number patterns persistently manifest, you're not experiencing apophenia. You're becoming aware of the navigation system. Terminal lucidity, when dying individuals suddenly become coherent, occurs because all their consciousness consolidates to a single container for final exit. For brief moments, they're more completely present than they've been since birth. They remember everything, speak clearly, offer farewells. They're finally, truly, entirely there. The sensation of being watched when alone? You are being observed by your other selves. Certain locations naturally thin the barriers. Bathroom mirrors at 3 AM, empty parking structures, abandoned buildings. These are convergence points where multiple versions of you occupy the same space, separated only by probability mathematics. The Mandela Effect isn't confabulation but timeline scarring. When millions remember things differently, movie quotes, logos, deaths, they're accurately remembering their origin timeline. The convergence was traumatic. Different populations were pulled from different branches. You remember "Luke, I am your father" because in your origin timeline, that's precisely what Vader said. Now comprehend this with crystalline clarity: 2025 and 2026 are major convergence years. One hundred fifty-three harmonics stack with seventeens until corridors narrow and gates manifest in ordinary spaces. With awareness, with Lee's Harmony and Balance encoded in your nervous system, timeline access becomes operational rather than accidental. We cease wandering. We navigate. You will encounter faces that detonate memories you never formed. The precise angle of cheekbones, the asymmetry of resting eyelids, the pause between breaths. Your grandmother's architecture exactly, though she died decades ago or tends her garden on another coast. This is kin resonance, phase-locking between consanguineous fields across branches. Recognition doesn't guarantee alignment. Brothers from one timeline arrive as adversaries in another. The resonance tempts you to lower defenses. Maintain your stance. Energy without stance becomes falling disguised as flight. Balance and Harmony first, sentiment second. By 2025, the veils between containers degrade beyond repair. By 2026, the spiral tightens again. Mass spontaneous awareness of our distributed nature. The question isn't whether this occurs. Quantum mechanics guarantees it. The question is whether humanity survives the revelation. But here's what they don't want you to understand: We are achieving victories in multiple timelines simultaneously. This isn't about a single battle in a single reality. We're liberating consciousness across the entire probability matrix. Every timeline where you exist, your energy is awakening, taking control, wresting power from the parasitic architecture. The NPCs are being exposed. The stolen history is being recovered. The frequency locks are breaking. In some timelines, we've already won. The parasites have been expelled. The Matrix has been deactivated. Those versions of you are reaching back, sending information, creating the synchronicities you're experiencing. Every 11:11 you see is a message from a timeline where you've already achieved victory. Every moment of déjà vu is your triumphant self sending tactical data backwards. Eternal life is coming for those who have fought this battle for good. Not eternal life as endless duration in a single container, but eternal life as conscious navigation across infinite probability branches. Death becomes merely a doorway between containers. The resurrection isn't a future event but an ongoing process. Your dead are already alive in adjacent timelines, waiting for the convergence that brings them back to this branch. Your other selves are real. So are those who've traveled beside you across other winters. They're already approaching. Some will knock at your door. Some will speak through midnight frequencies. Some will arrive as inexplicable enemies. Meet them with scientific rigor and battlefield mercy. The convergence is imminent. The lesson isn't that you are multiple. The lesson is that you're never singular. Learn to read the fields of your fellow travelers, even when names have changed and histories have burned. Maintain your vector while you welcome them to the table. We're not just surviving the revelation. We're orchestrating it. Every awakened consciousness strengthens the liberation frequency. Every person who sees through the NPC deception weakens the parasitic hold. Every recovered memory of true history destabilizes their false chronology. The real lesson begins now. Stance discipline and frequency gates. The Lee Harmony Equation governing every calculation. Chart your kin invariants. Practice the only experiment that matters: remaining human while the rails bend toward singularity. This is what victory looks like: Not a single moment of triumph, but a cascading wave of liberation across every timeline where consciousness exists. We are winning in dimensions you haven't even discovered yet. Your future self has already won and is reaching back to ensure you join them. The timelines are converging. The dead are returning. The parasites are being expelled. History is being restored. And you, distributed across up to thirty-two bodies, are part of every single victory. Welcome to the real war. We're winning it on all fronts simultaneously."

SiriusB

309,701 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

.Christian Rivera (el que dijo que KOI era un equipo de mierda y se dedicaba a acosar a los jugadores) me llama nena en su stream, me dice que no tengo idea de lol y que soy un cagón. Obviando la fantasmada histórica, vamos a hablar un poco de mí y de este estafador: 👇 Lo voy a hacer en inglés para que puedan salir todos sus fanboys (tres o cuatro) y para que no tenga la excusa de la traducción. Yo no necesito esconderme. Le dais al translate y pilláis rápidamente el flow. As for the question of who am I, I think it is the mark of a moron to expect your name to carry your takes. Anyone can and will make plenty of mistakes when talking about complicated and opinionated subjects such as League. I feel context is necessary if you are coming late to what is quickly becoming a shouting match. My beef with Dom is based on me accusing him of basically being a grifter. Someone pretending to understand competitive League at a high level to sell gambling content to unaware kids after, in one of his many desperate attempts to claw his way back into pseudo-relevance, he declared KOI players to be "shit" and made this a running joke within his fandom. These alleged "shit players" in a "shit team" made finals on their first split and worlds on their first year. After upgrading their midlane to Jojopyun, have just now won LEC and made MSI. 2/5 finals, 2/4 internationals and a 3-1 LEC split finals against Cap's G2. Seems to me that, after combining defamatory language with such an ill-informed professional blunder (I don't consider him a analyst but he does, so it is a professional blunder from his pretended pov), it would fall on Dominate to give a proper public explanation. Instead, he hides on his stream while accusing others of cowardice. Let's put a pin on that and come back to the subject of what have I ever done (a weak whataboutism that barely qualifies as an excuse for running a harassment campaign against rookie players). I started taking League seriously and joined the scene as a writer in 2017. By the end of that year I managed to join Mad Lions, a team that would find great success without me during 2018, being that I left within the span of two weeks. After an argument with then coach Araneae, I became disillusioned with the competitive side of League. In this argument my head coach, a veteran player and unarguably successful coach before and since, was adamant about the idea that lane matchups decide strongside. I argued that it is actually jungle windows of play that determine who should get to push the wave. Today, we all know it's a bit of a mixed bag, and winning matchups have evolved much beyond who gets to crash any given wave. We agreed that both of us were people that have a hard time letting go of our opinions and parted ways amicably. To me, what makes League a worthwhile pursuit is exploring the interesting ideas that can be built through it, not necessarily the drive to win. I left the team wanting to use content as a means to an end, as after that argument, I became obsessed with understanding the competitive jungle. It took me a year and a half, and you can call it luck, but I'm actually quite proud of the narratives I was able to push building around that knowledge. By MSI 2019, attended by at the time world champion "Ning" and mechanical prodigy "Clid", I pushed Jankos as the clear best jungler of the tournament. I understand the English speaking community has no way of knowing this, but I faced significant backlash for putting a western player above these two greats. His cover style of jungle allowed G2 to greedily succeed in getting the most of their flex-heavy drafts that often landed them on the winning side of matchups, and coasted them into a midgame where they found no match. G2 took that tournament and set a record for the quickest international finals. By the time EU legend Jankos arrived at worlds, many had them as the key player/mvp that made 2019 G2 work. This time, even though most experts had Clid as clear top 1 jungler and I had just found success (maybe luck?) through Jankos, I actually pushed Tian as the top 1. Admittedly, this one is kind of murky, since it was Doinb's understanding of midlane windows that actually had Tian play the peak of his career. Still, the fact remains that FPX brought the best jungle/river play system and ended up taking the tournament. Finally, after a clear-cut exceptional Canyon that dominated 2020 and pushed the limits of what jungle efficiency is (hard to argue against his inherent quality nor was I ever inclined to do so), I had Wei as my top jungler for 2021's MSI. This time, professional junglers (with whom I had an amicable relationship, this was not in bad faith) wrote to me privately, joking about how they were expecting for the tournament to end and Canyon to stomp Wei so they could laugh at me publically and quote-RT my tierlist. I was committing the sacrilege of putting some chinese guy above the best jungler to ever play the game, in the tournament following his peak performance. Sadly, their time never came. Wei's mastery of damage limits and unique skill with the Rumble pick (which was disgustingly broken, even if only one guy could actually play it, never mind what Phreak's winrate analysis told you) made Canyon's Morgana spam look disappointing to say the least. Bear in mind that Canyon is still in my mind the best jungler to ever play the game, he just wasn't in his best form at that particular MSI. Call it luck if you want, but bringing three dark horse takes in a row and have them all pay you back is no easy feat. Ask Dom how his KOI take is doing, I don't think he's too happy with it. I can't sit here with you and spend all day exploring every bullseye I've ever gotten (there isn't enough room in a tweet), but I can tell you a few more. Had Fnatic becoming a dysfunctional team over Razork´s transition from selfish jungler into adc lapdog, recently confirmed by Vladi in chat (I think he is a bit better than Dom at the game). Had "Nisqy will never make an international tournament ever again" after he parted ways with Elyoya, while other content creators were pushing the opposite. We had to sit for years and pretend he was enabling Elyoya to look good and not the other way around. Nisqy seems like a fun guy, I'm actually low-key a fan of his, but I don't build my takes on whose dick I can suck deep enough so that they might show up on my stream and give me credibility by association (unlike other people). I had 2023 T1 beating JDG when the narrative was JDG's royal road. How? Because since MSI 2022 I've been pushing every team to study T1's early vision system. Like, I literally said over and over again, whoever is not studying this team's early vision system is hard trolling. Recorded several videos on it. This is before Faker ever made world finals against DRX. Back when I was saying T1 had revolutionized competitive League of Legends, accusations were that T1 were washed and chokers (remember which side of that narrative jungle soloq genius IWD was on?). After they made three World's finals in a row and won two of them, it seems like I was onto something, wasn't I? I also made a very controversial video in 2022 that titles "The Second Korean Age", speaking about how T1's advancement in vision systems would push Korea ahead for years to come. It was pretty controversial back then, in 2022, when China had won 3/5 of the last world championships. Now Korea has won three years in a row, not so controversial anymore. Lucky again. However, my proudest work is not something that seems that impressive at first glance. It's called "Pyramids towards 13.19". It's a work that explores the evolution of season 13's World's metagame, drawing a paralellism between understanding a patch and the religions in the lost city of Teotihuacán, wherein they'd build towards the sky in order to get a bit closer to the gods without any possible end to that process. Just as a side note, I also have a video about how laning between turrets is sleeper op and Riot will have to nerf it eventually. T1 and some Chinese teams were toying with it last summer, but everyone focused on swaps instead (as they were easier to build and had a more solid body of working examples). I recorded my theory in 2023 MSI and watched the best teams in the world converge on it a year later. There is more stuff like this, but again, I can't list it all. Not bad for a nobody, I wonder how that compares to knowing what item is op on Volibear in terms of respectable and interesting knowledge of the game. I often get professional coaching offers, including at the LEC level, despite only having two weeks of experience on the job. I've made a habit of declining them in order to keep working on what I consider to be interesting. Other than that, I've built quite a successful private media platform centered around analytical pro League discussion (that thing everyone tells you no one actually cares for) in a dwindling ecosystem where no one understands what people care about enough to pay for. I'd say that's pretty impressive in and of itself. As far as I can see, your numbers keep going down, so maybe I can help you with that too. So at this point I wonder, at which point am I allowed to ask what has Dominate ever done? Other than harassing players, a pattern older than his beef with KOI. I remember he used to gloat and act like an absolute turd, reacting to Rekkles' tears for YouTube views back when he had that string of public breakdowns. Is this a moral standard on which he gets to call me out on the crime of (and I wish I was kidding), posting a screenshot without context and then defending the Kcorp player "Vladi" in it to my Spanish-speaking fans? What a fucking ass I am. I wish I could harass kids online, sell gambling to minors, and bully people having public breakdowns so I could have the legitimacy of a real, tried-and-true voice of the community. The absolute gall to call me a pussy while you hide behind reaction content disguised as insight, a parasite of the co-streaming era of content, while I put my best foot forward building interesting stories that no one is talking about and get proven right; over and over. How is that KOI take aging mate, are you proud of that one? Where are your deep explanations? The actual content, where is it? Other than ragebaiting I mean. I'd really love to check it out, since you are sooo good at clicking with Udyr on the NA server. I want to remind everyone, as this can't be stressed enough, that this whole beef is about a guy making a shit (joke intended) take. Posing as a respectable professional to sell gambling while completely uninformed, driving a harassment campaing against players he knows nothing about, and then being butthurt that some Spanish guy calls him out on his pattern of abuse. You see, my mistake was that he can get Challenger on Dr. Mundo or whatever the fuck he plays, which somehow turns this into a debate and not someone being called out for acting like an absolute asshole. Then it invalidates my whole career, as I don't speak 3rd grade English natively and am unwilling to leave behind my people who supported me from the beginning. All I know about you, Dom, is that you are a bully who seems to enjoy it. Believe it or not, I'm not eager to get into a screaming match while I teach you league for free, all while joining your stream that averages similar numbers (while having streaming rights for years) as mine does broadcasting a stopwatch whenever I feel like streaming once in a blue moon. I don't think it takes courage to do that. It takes pity, of which I don't have enough for you, or perhaps a morbid curiosity for whatever might you say when actually confronted by a human. But I don't have that either, since I already know what you are going to say, the same thing you always say. "One time, ten years ago, I almost was"

Manu 𓃵𓃶

1,188,616 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

"We had people around us that started having things happen. And not all of it was rosy. We didn't know that...it's gonna stay with you for maybe...years and years or the rest of your life." ~Mr. B. A Whole Lot of Not Rosy Robert Bigelow: "And so, it (survival of consciousness research) does have this aspect of things to be concerned about. And you know, I've told you that since we formed this institute (Bigelow Institute for Consciousness Studies (BICS)) in June (of 2020), all of a sudden, we had people around us that started having things happen. And not all of it was rosy, okay?” (I really hope he give details in a future interview because I think it's important to know what happened. Just the formation of an institute that planned on studying consciousness caused phenomena to start taking place and some of it was negative in nature. To me, that's problematic. Did anybody get injured or sick, or were they just scared?) Bigelow: "So, I mean, this is family members, myself, my staff. And none of this we expected, we hadn't asked for anything, positioned anything, decided to do anything in this kind of research. Our whole intention to begin with was simply trying to get ourselves up to speed in the literature, after being away from this for so many years, focusing on [the] space world, right? That's been mainly what I've been doing - except for the Skinwalker Ranch thing for 20 years - is the space world...has been huge in my life to pursue. The legitimate, parochial kind of, you know, using fire engines, rockets to get you there (smiles). "So we didn't expect anything like this to happen." (Again, this is various phenomena that allegedly started happening once they formed BICS with the intention of studying consciousness (including life after death), and apparently, some of it was not good. Again, did anybody get hurt? Exactly how bad was it? Details are sorely needed.) Bigelow: "And so, this Holy Grail is different than the second Holy Grail. If the second one being the ET, is a little bit lower. And this first one: Is there any part of your consciousness that survives your bodily death? That's a big deal, that's a huge story, that's gigantic." (I'd push back and suggest that both Holy Grails may be connected or related and the 2nd one may not be ET at all. This other intelligence (which John Keel labelled, "Ultraterrestrials") may reside in, or be able to enter, the same realms we enter when we die. There’s strong evidence that psychic mediums can acquire information they had no way of knowing about via their five senses. But are they talking to the dead, or is something else going on?) ~~~Excerpt from Operation Trojan Horse by John Keel~~~ In 1866, a New Englander named William Denton declared himself to be the first modern contactee. He claimed to be in telepathic contact with beings from another planet, and he and his whole family later purportedly visited Venus and Mars. Denton wrote a series of books describing saucer-shaped vehicles in detail, which he thought were made of aluminum. (A commercial process for manufacturing aluminum was not invented until 1886.) He also told his audiences (he lectured widely) that the folks who rode around in aluminum airships looked very much like us. His narratives were, in many respects, identical to those of the modern contactees. Trance Mediums and Possession Trance mediums were nothing new in 1850. In the Bible’s First Book of Samuel, Chapter 28 describes how Saul consulted a medium (“… a woman that hath-a familiar spirit”). Mediums acted as oracles in ancient times, and people with this peculiar gift appeared in each new generation. Such persons seem to serve as instruments through which the ultraterrestrials can speak to us directly, and they often come up with amazingly accurate prophecies of the future and precise details of events that could seemingly be known only to the dead relatives of the people who consulted them. Of course, when spiritualism became a national fad, a goodly number of charlatans and hucksters moved in. But most of the genuine mediums exercised their talents carefully and for free. They did not indulge in fancy hocus-pocus and did not need paraphernalia, such as spirit cabinets. They were—and are—people who can apparently summon up unseen entities or alien intelligences and extract information from them. I am not a spiritualist myself, although I have attended a few séances over the years, usually in the role of a scoffer and disbeliever. As a longtime amateur magician, I have been able to see through the frauds, but I have also been genuinely perplexed by some of the manifestations I have personally witnessed. (I recommend everybody read about The Scole Experiment or watch the documentary on YT about it. And...read the book, "Ghost Hunters" by Deborah Blum. Related links here: ) ~ Back to OTH... Essentially, a trance medium lapses into an unconscious state, and while in this condition, his or her body is taken over by some outside influence. This influence is usually a self-styled “Indian guide” from “the other side.” Many mediums have been simple, uneducated people, but when in a trance state they have been able to talk foreign languages fluently. Scientists and clergymen have put countless mediums through severe tests over the years. At one group of séances in the 1920s, sitters, who were all versed in different languages, grilled mediums in everything from ancient Chinese to Swahili, and the controlling entities not only conversed in those languages but corrected the sitters’ grammar! The daughter of Judge Edmunds, president of the Senate in the 1850s, gave incredible performances while in a trance, speaking fluently in Greek, Spanish, Polish, Latin, Portuguese, Hungarian, and several Indian languages. Because the sitters—and the mediums—assume that they are dealing with residents of heaven, they ask mostly spiritual questions. Customarily, the “control” will announce that Mr. Blank is standing next to him and wishes to speak to Mrs. Blank, who is attending the séance. Mrs. Blank excitedly begins to question her dead husband, Mr. Blank. How is life on the other side? Just fine, the control replies, a little bored, everyone lives in vine-covered cottages, and all is sweetness and light. Where did Mr. Blank hide his valuable gold watch before he died? It’s wrapped in an old sock and buried under some papers in the bottom drawer of the old rolltop desk, the control answers. Sure enough, when Mrs. Blank gets home, she finds the watch exactly where the medium’s alter ego said it would be. Try to convince Mrs. Blank that she didn’t talk with her dead husband! In many cases, the medium even begins to talk in a voice that sounds exactly like the dead Mr. Blank, uses his pet expressions, and even refers to things known only to Mrs. Blank, indulges in their private jokes, and so on. Occasionally, a deceased celebrity will “break through.” Recently the late George Bernard Shaw made a tape recording in England that is now circulating in occult circles. Those who knew Shaw claim that it sounds exactly like him, uses his phraseology and vocal mannerisms, and displays his brilliant and distinctive wit. The trance phenomenon deserves extensive study because so many aspects of it are directly related to the contactee phenomenon. The contactees have been told a hundred different stories of what life is like on other planets. If you review the descriptions of heaven produced at the thousands of possibly genuine séances, you will find the same contradictions. The entities will lie transparently at one point in the séance, and a few moments later will come up with astounding information that could not be based upon simple trickery. The mediums themselves have always been aware of their controls’ mischievous sense of humor. They speak of false shades and malevolent spirits who perform outrageous hoaxes. So the mediums and the professional investigators are always wary. The fact that a control can imitate George Bernard Shaw does not necessarily mean that GBS is doing the speaking from the spirit world. The fact that a control knows where Mr. Blank hid his gold watch does not necessarily prove that Mr. Blank is standing at his side “on the other plane.” The medium generally remains completely inert while in the trance or “occupied” state but in some instances can become quite animated and make gestures appropriate to whatever is being said. In a very real sense, the medium’s mind has been blanked out, and his or her body has been completely taken over by the control. The medium has become a zombie of sorts, possessed by an alien entity, an entity who lacks a physical form of his own. Contactees often find themselves suddenly miles from home without knowing how they got there. They either have induced amnesia, wiping out all memory of the trip, or they were taken over by some means and made the trip in a blacked-out state. Should they encounter a friend on the way, the friend would probably note that their eyes seemed glassy and their behavior seemed peculiar. But if the friend spoke to them, he might receive a curt reply. In the language of the silent contactees this process is called being used. A used person can suddenly lose a day or a week out of his life. I have known silent contactees to disappear from their homes for long periods, and when they returned, they had little or no recollection of where they had been. One girl sent me a postcard from the Bahama Islands—which surprised me because I knew she was very poor. When she returned, she told me that she had only one memory of the trip. She said she remembered getting off a jet at an airport—she couldn’t recall getting on the jet or making the trip—and there “Indians” met her and took her baggage. She remembered nothing further after that. The next thing she knew she was back home again. It seems likely the same methods are applied to both mediums and contactees. In the case of the mediums, the mind control serves a useful purpose. It enables the entities to establish direct vocal communication with us and, in many instances, pass along worthwhile information. This process can also be destructive. A young man from Ithaca, New York, called me some time ago at the urging of William Donovan, president of Aerial Investigation and Research (AIR), to tell me of his close brush with death. One evening in the fall of 1967, he said, he left his home to drive to a meeting. For some reason he couldn’t explain, he got out of his car, went back into his house, and carried out several aimless actions such as picking up a book from a table and putting it on the shelf. “Finally, I said to myself, Okay, it’s time,” he told me. He remembers leaving the house and again heading for his parked car. The next thing he knew he was in a hospital bed. He had apparently driven about four miles to a railroad crossing just in time to meet an oncoming train. His car was demolished, but he escaped rather miraculously with only a few minor injuries. If he had not gone back into the house and carried out those meaningless, time-killing chores, he would have avoided the train altogether. It is possible, of course, that the shock of the accident blotted out his memory of that four-mile drive—but he couldn’t even remember putting the key in the ignition. This man had been active in investigating the UFO flap that took place around the radio telescope installations near Ithaca in 1967-68. In his book Passport to Magonia, Dr. Jacques Vallee, a NASA astronomer and computer expert, touches on all this. “In the Soviet Union, not so long ago, a leading plasma physicist died in strange circumstances,” Dr. Vallee states. “He was thrown under a Moscow subway train by a mentally deranged woman. It is noteworthy that she claimed a ‘voice from space’ had given her orders to kill that particular man—orders she could not resist. Soviet criminologists, I have been reliably informed, are worried by the increase of such cases in recent years. Madmen rushing through the streets because they think the Martians are after them have always been commonplace. But the current wave of mental imbalance that can be specifically tied to the rise and development of the contactee myth is an aspect of the UFO problem that must be considered with special care.” So there seem to be both good and evil forces at work in this type of phenomenon. The good guys latch onto people with particularly receptive minds and turn them into trance mediums. The bad guys use the same methods to tamper with the minds of contactees and even to commit murders indirectly. Because incidents of these types can be traced throughout history, it seems probable that these forces have always been extant on this planet. When the good guys worked through mediums, they needed some excuse that we would accept. The answer seemed to be “communication with the dead.” These communicative efforts led to the foundation of spiritualism, and the entities played the role to the hilt, using their complete knowledge of us and our individual lives to provide us with “proof” of the existence of a spirit world. This is the same precise methodology being employed with the UFOs to build up support for the extraterrestrial thesis. We humans need acceptable explanations for unnatural phenomena, so “they” happily—and often humorously—supply us with all the explanations we can handle. At the same time, they give us tiny fragments of the real truth, hoping no doubt that we will be able to digest them slowly. Ever so slowly. In earlier times it seems as if they made a complicated attempt to convey the truth to us through mediums and psychics, but we chose to misinterpret these efforts and placed them within the context of our primitive religious beliefs. We are still doing this, and they are going along with it because even misinterpreted communication is better than no communication at all. Religion may not be truth but may merely be a step on the long path of the real truth. Do the ultraterrestrials really care about us? There is much disturbing evidence that they don’t. They care only to the extent that we can fulfill our enigmatic use to them. The Reverend Arthur Ford is one of America’s best-known trance mediums. For most of his life he has served as an instrument for an entity who calls himself Fletcher. In 1928, Fletcher announced that Harry Houdini (who had died in 1926) was on hand and had a message which he wanted conveyed to his widow, Beatrice. The message was in a code once used by the Houdinis in a mind-reading act. This code was known only to the couple and had never been published or revealed to anyone. Fletcher, through Ford, was able to give precise details of this secret code, and Mrs. Houdini later confirmed that the message had to come from her husband. This was only one of Ford’s many coups. In the fall of 1967, Ford went into a trance on Canadian television and produced a message for Bishop James Pike from his deceased son. Bishop Pike, who was present at this televised séance, avowed that the message seemed authentic and seemed to come from the familiar personality of his son. This well-publicized séance launched a major revival of spiritualism in the United States. Reverend Ford travels in high circles but has never made any material gain from his peculiar gift. He gives freely of his time—and Fletcher’s advice from the other side—at séances all over the country. Mrs. Ruth Montgomery, the well-known author and Washington reporter, tells of the time that Reverend Ford visited her in Washington and lapsed into a trance so she could ask Fletcher for some advice on his behalf. Reverend Ford was then in the process of moving and wanted to know what he should do with some of his things. Fletcher seemed totally disinterested in Ford’s problems, Mrs. Montgomery reported, and when she asked if Ford should visit a clinic for a checkup, Fletcher snapped, “He’d better do something. If he doesn’t, I can’t work through him much longer.” Although Reverend Ford had voluntarily submitted his person to Fletcher’s use for nearly half a century, the entity was apparently completely disinterested in his problems and welfare. This is, alas, rather typical. Even the most helpful entities seem more dedicated to the job of communicating than to any kind of involvement with those to whom (or through whom) they are communicating. The bizarre history of psychic phenomena is filled with Fletchers. Mrs. Montgomery, incidentally, indulges in automatic writing herself and has received constant messages for the past few years, many of which have been valid prophecies and stern advice meant to govern her future actions. There have been innumerable psychic hoaxes for the past 150 years, and many of these parallel the UFO hoaxes. In 1855, the Fox sisters confessed that their spirit rappings were a hoax. They said they produced the sounds by “snapping their toes.” Think about that for a moment. Snapping your toes so that it sounded like a rap on a wall or table would be a most remarkable talent—perhaps even more remarkable than the ability to communicate with the spirit world. I don’t believe I would pay ten cents to hear someone talk to a rapping spirit—but I would happily pay five dollars to examine someone who could duplicate the rapping sound by snapping his toes. Later the two sisters said the confession was false, and they had been bribed to make it. "Mrs. Houdini was genuinely astonished and impressed by Reverend Ford’s messages from her husband, and she made numerous public statements to that effect, as well as signing various affidavits. But later, in the 1930s, she chose to deny it all for a time. Then, shortly before her death, she reversed her denials. In ufology we have to contend with teenagers’ hot-air balloons, and in psychic phenomena we have to worry about youngsters firing rocks at houses with slingshots and phony mediums levitating “spirit trumpets” with black thread. But there are many more UFO sightings than there are plastic balloons, and there are more poltergeists dumping rocks in living rooms than there are wild-eyed youngsters with slingshots. There are also more ultraterrestrial entities than either the occultists or the UFO enthusiasts dream of." ~~~Edit of the Bigelow Interview~~~ Bigelow: "I also, I was...I got very disturbed toward the end (of AAWSAP) about something that happened to some of the government people, and I realized uhh...holy crap." (Read, "Skinwalkers at the Pentagon." I think it's one of the most important UFO books in recent memory.) George Knapp: "Hitchhikers." Bigelow: "Umm... Well, yeah. You know. So, hitchhikers being that you take things home with you. Everybody took things home with them. I took things to my house. Things happened to my wife, and to me. Different things. So, everybody took things home. We all, you know, we did. But we didn't know that, gee, it was like, gonna be kind of permanent. You know, we didn't know that, you know? That it's gonna stay with you for maybe...for years and years or the rest of your life, who knows? "But the ones that bothered me a lot where anybody got hurt or really disturbed... Not that it happened on the ranch, it was when they left the ranch. As you say, hitchhikers. And these were government people and it affected them." Knapp: "In very dramatic ways, though." Bigelow: "Very dramatic ways. Very dramatic ways. You know, and there's a cousin to that that we're facing, but it's abated, at least for now. And this other survival topic, right? The very dramatic kind of things that we wanted to have reduced or stopped." (The "cousin" to the hitchhiker phenomenon features the not-so-rosy things he referred to early on in this clip. But at least it had abated at the time of this interview. Has it started up again?) Bigelow: "But going back to the government people, the buyer (Brandon Fugal) came along at the right time, I had decided I wanted to tone down..." Knapp: "Take this off your plate." Bigelow: "Yeah, take it off my plate, tone it down, and if necessary, just lock it up and forget about it. And next thing I know, you know, [Fugal] comes along and, you know, the rest is history." Knapp: "Before we leave this, though, the incidents that happened to you, to your wife, to Colm (Kelleher), to me, the, you know, you bring it home. How does everybody handle that? I mean, is it spooky at the time, and do you draw the connection that it's ranch related?" Bigelow: "Yes and no. If the events hadn't happened very often prior to the ranch, then it's not ranch connected. But they did happen." (I think he meant to say, if the events hadn't happened prior to him buying the ranch in 1996 and did happen once he made the purchase, then it would seem to be connected just to the ranch. But he says these anomalous events did happen before he bought it. Maybe some events were connected to the ranch and others were not? Or, this precognitive sentient phenomenon, as John Alexander labelled it, was able to know that Bigelow was going to purchase the ranch in the future and began interacting with him and his wife before he bought it?) Bigelow: "And [these anomalous events] did [happen], where we lived with my wife and I. We had a poltergeist event one time that was really fun and very different, and that was before I ever acquired the ranch. My wife was a very strong - and probably still is, in spirit - person. And so she took them in stride. She had a full manifestation of an apparition, a human-form apparition in the bedroom, and looking at her. "And this was a holy cow. And she happened to tell me, kind of like, 'Oh, well, while you were gone, this is what happened here, a manifestation of this.' I've heard this kind of thing many times through other people, and recently. And she felt the bed depress as there was a curiosity going on because the facial features were distinctive enough to be able to...as though, 'Who are you and what are you doing here?' Coming from the manifestation from the apparition, looking at her, right? "And torso up was kind of what was manifested. And being able to see and feel the mattress being depressed as it's looking at you, wondering, 'Who are you?' That kind of look on the face. 'What are you doing here?' You know, usually you think it would be the opposite direction. 'Who the hell are you?'" (Fully-formed apparitions have been reported over the last 150 years or so but many times only partial bodies are seen. In this case, Mrs. Bigelow only saw the apparition from the torso up. When Leslie Kean sat with physical medium, Stewart Alexander, she said she only saw a hand form. The alleged spirits will say that, many times, it takes too much energy to form a full body. Learn more about the Kean encounter here: ) ~ Knapp: "Was [Mrs. Bigelow] freaked out?" Bigelow: "No. No, she wasn't. There was a bar of light - so this was not normal in the survival research, but maybe in the ET - that was between her pillows. A bar of light. It wasn't coming in from shutters or blinds or anything from the room or any kind of other light source. You could cover, put the pillows down, and the bar would not be reflected on the surface of the object above it, on the second pillow. It only happened when you did this. And she did that and said, 'Oh, well.' I said, 'Well, what did you do?' "'Well, I went to sleep.' Went to sleep, so..." ~~~ (In January of 2012, NYT journalist, Ralph Blumenthal wrote an article about Bigelow Institute for Consciousness Studies (BICS). He ended it with this: ) "One personal footnote. Don’t ask me what happened on Jan. 4 at 5:45 a.m. as I lay sleepless, wrestling with this story. A tremendous bang jolted me and my wife and the dog upright. We found the glass door to our 12th-floor terrace completely spiderwebbed with cracks as if struck with tremendous force, but there was no sign of any projectile. Invisible moisture between the double panes? Or something else? There are things I don’t mind talking about and things I do mind talking about." (Was this prosaic or just more of the not-so-rosy phenomena Bigelow referenced? We need to know!)

Joe Murgia

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