正在加载视频...

视频加载失败

返回首页

UPDATE: Supplementary Budget III 2024/25 approved by National Assembly Supplementary Budget III sailed through the National Assembly this morning. Quite some changes from what we saw come from the National Treasury. Here's the summary: · National Treasury had proposed a Kes 37.58 billion increase in recurrent spending via Supp....

AmbokoJH's profile picture

Julians Amboko

81,216 subscribers

43,761 次观看 • 1 年前 •via X (Twitter)

新闻政治财经
LIVE

Anya Rossi• Live Now

Private livecam show

2 条评论

Juma Ajuma 的头像
Juma Ajuma1 年前

Pls clarify is Financial yr 24/25 ends in 5 days time. Is the supl bdget money already spent and absorbed expenditure or will it flow over to financial year 25/26.

Wod Alego 💪 的头像
Wod Alego 💪1 年前

You can imagine what they will do with 2025/2026 budget. Our leaders are crazy. The National Assembly is our weakest link to leadership and governance in this country.

相关视频

President William Ruto has this morning signed the Supplementary Appropriations II 2024/25 into law. What are seeing here? · Recurrent spending increases by Kes 138.87 billion · Development spending decreases by Kes 25.0 billion · Total national government ministerial expenditure increases by Kes 113.87 billion · Judiciary budget increases by Kes 470.0 million Overall changes to the 2024/25 budget: · Budget net redemptions stands at Kes 3.991 trillion (in essence, we pretty much are back to where we were in the initial 2024/25 budget...did we really need Supp. I?) · Fiscal deficit widens to Kes 875.54 billion (the tabled Supp. II had put this at Kes 862.47 billion) · Fiscal deficit as a % of GDP 5.02% (the tabled Supp. II budget had put this at 4.97% of GDP) · There was a deal with the IMF that the fiscal deficit would not exceed 4.3% of GDP in 2024/25 (earlier ceiling was actually 4.0%, then Finance Bill 2024 collapsed)...but why would we care now? We've pulled the plug on the 9th Review
1:50

President William Ruto has this morning signed the Supplementary Appropriations II 2024/25 into law. What are seeing here? · Recurrent spending increases by Kes 138.87 billion · Development spending decreases by Kes 25.0 billion · Total national government ministerial expenditure increases by Kes 113.87 billion · Judiciary budget increases by Kes 470.0 million Overall changes to the 2024/25 budget: · Budget net redemptions stands at Kes 3.991 trillion (in essence, we pretty much are back to where we were in the initial 2024/25 budget...did we really need Supp. I?) · Fiscal deficit widens to Kes 875.54 billion (the tabled Supp. II had put this at Kes 862.47 billion) · Fiscal deficit as a % of GDP 5.02% (the tabled Supp. II budget had put this at 4.97% of GDP) · There was a deal with the IMF that the fiscal deficit would not exceed 4.3% of GDP in 2024/25 (earlier ceiling was actually 4.0%, then Finance Bill 2024 collapsed)...but why would we care now? We've pulled the plug on the 9th Review

Julians Amboko

42,631 次观看 • 1 年前

Speaking in Kiambu National Polytechnic on Budget & Privatisation, National Treasury CS, John Mbadi has termed Kes 30,000/month as "survival salary" that government has "no business taxing". I hope this means Finance Bill 2026 includes a proposal to revise the tax free income threshold (post-personal relief) from kes 24,000 to Kes 30,000. It would be a much needed breather for Kenyans. Last year my colleagues & I from the Tax Research Centre at Strathmore University made this proposal to the National Assembly Finance & Planning Committee, it didn't sail through (see quoted tweet).
1:03

Speaking in Kiambu National Polytechnic on Budget & Privatisation, National Treasury CS, John Mbadi has termed Kes 30,000/month as "survival salary" that government has "no business taxing". I hope this means Finance Bill 2026 includes a proposal to revise the tax free income threshold (post-personal relief) from kes 24,000 to Kes 30,000. It would be a much needed breather for Kenyans. Last year my colleagues & I from the Tax Research Centre at Strathmore University made this proposal to the National Assembly Finance & Planning Committee, it didn't sail through (see quoted tweet).

Julians Amboko

80,857 次观看 • 6 个月前

National Treasury CS on Supplementary Budget I 202526: 1. We are likely to see it in Feb when the National Assembly resumes business 2. Security, Education, Primary Health & the Social Health Insurance Programme (SHA) have presented spending pressures 3. If revenue doesn't perform, GOK will have to revise downward the size of the budget On point No.3, Q1 2025/26 closed with revenue mobilised at Kes 49.9 billion behind target (see quoted tweet). The urgency for cutting down the size of budget 2025/26 was already crystal clear by close of Q1, not sure what other signal Treasury is still waiting for
3:05

National Treasury CS on Supplementary Budget I 202526: 1. We are likely to see it in Feb when the National Assembly resumes business 2. Security, Education, Primary Health & the Social Health Insurance Programme (SHA) have presented spending pressures 3. If revenue doesn't perform, GOK will have to revise downward the size of the budget On point No.3, Q1 2025/26 closed with revenue mobilised at Kes 49.9 billion behind target (see quoted tweet). The urgency for cutting down the size of budget 2025/26 was already crystal clear by close of Q1, not sure what other signal Treasury is still waiting for

Julians Amboko

28,880 次观看 • 7 个月前

Why Finance Bill 2026 skipped PAYE bands adjustments National Treasury CS, John Mbadi, says that despite its absence in the Finance Bill 2026 Green Copy, adjustments to PAYE bands are not off the table & they will likely be factored in (key word here is 'likely'). Mbadi says that the headache the National Treasury has is that the proposed adjustment of bumping up the base from Kes 24,000 to Kes 30,000 & adjusting the rate downward for Kes 30,000 - Kes 50,000 would leave the Exchequer with a Kes 35.0 billion revenue gap. Musings... Sounds like a linear simulation that ignores the transmission of the additional disposable income into spending & additional indirect taxes (VAT, excises)
1:50

Why Finance Bill 2026 skipped PAYE bands adjustments National Treasury CS, John Mbadi, says that despite its absence in the Finance Bill 2026 Green Copy, adjustments to PAYE bands are not off the table & they will likely be factored in (key word here is 'likely'). Mbadi says that the headache the National Treasury has is that the proposed adjustment of bumping up the base from Kes 24,000 to Kes 30,000 & adjusting the rate downward for Kes 30,000 - Kes 50,000 would leave the Exchequer with a Kes 35.0 billion revenue gap. Musings... Sounds like a linear simulation that ignores the transmission of the additional disposable income into spending & additional indirect taxes (VAT, excises)

Julians Amboko

37,405 次观看 • 2 个月前

Responding to oral questions to the peace and security cluster today in the National Assembly, I emphasised that there can be no further delays in the National Treasury implementing the President’s directive to increase the Defence budget from 0.7% to 1.5% of GDP.
1:48

Responding to oral questions to the peace and security cluster today in the National Assembly, I emphasised that there can be no further delays in the National Treasury implementing the President’s directive to increase the Defence budget from 0.7% to 1.5% of GDP.

Bantu Holomisa

17,551 次观看 • 2 个月前

This week has been heavy from a Public Finance standpoint. Here's where things stand as of now: Finance Bill 2025 · Finance Bill 2025 sailed through the Committee of the Whole House · The next thing we expect to see is the Vellum (cleaned up version following the clause-by-clause amendments) after which it heads for the President's assent · Remember June 30th is the sunset date by which it must be signed because virtually all proposed measures, except just two, are effective July 1st · The Bill tabled by National Treasury targeted Kes 30.0 billion worth of additional revenue in 2025/26, by the time the National Assembly Finance & Planning Committee was tabling its report with proposed amendments, this had been scaled down to Kes 24.0 billion · Total revenue target for 2025/26 is Kes 3.321 trillion 1/4
0:29

This week has been heavy from a Public Finance standpoint. Here's where things stand as of now: Finance Bill 2025 · Finance Bill 2025 sailed through the Committee of the Whole House · The next thing we expect to see is the Vellum (cleaned up version following the clause-by-clause amendments) after which it heads for the President's assent · Remember June 30th is the sunset date by which it must be signed because virtually all proposed measures, except just two, are effective July 1st · The Bill tabled by National Treasury targeted Kes 30.0 billion worth of additional revenue in 2025/26, by the time the National Assembly Finance & Planning Committee was tabling its report with proposed amendments, this had been scaled down to Kes 24.0 billion · Total revenue target for 2025/26 is Kes 3.321 trillion 1/4

Julians Amboko

70,538 次观看 • 1 年前

Supplementary Budget I pushed the 2025/26 fiscal deficit up to Kes 1.3 trillion (6.8% of GDP), bumping up net domestic borrowing to Kes 998.6 billion, 57.3% higher than earlier planned. I asked the Governor of the Central Bank of Kenya to what extent he feels that fiscal dominance now threatens the declining yield environment. Dr. Thugge says: · The pressure on domestic yields shouldn't be much because net domestic borrowing stands at ~ Kes 850.0 billion · Effectively, the Central Bank has already front-loaded a tidy piece of the borrowing & remains with ~ Kes 148.6 billion to meet the Supplementary Budget I target · Part of the reason why Kenya has sought additional financing from the World Bank (i.e. > the US$750.0 Million DPO VII allocation) is to ensure that the pressures from Supplementary Budget I don't weigh too heavily on the domestic market
2:12

Supplementary Budget I pushed the 2025/26 fiscal deficit up to Kes 1.3 trillion (6.8% of GDP), bumping up net domestic borrowing to Kes 998.6 billion, 57.3% higher than earlier planned. I asked the Governor of the Central Bank of Kenya to what extent he feels that fiscal dominance now threatens the declining yield environment. Dr. Thugge says: · The pressure on domestic yields shouldn't be much because net domestic borrowing stands at ~ Kes 850.0 billion · Effectively, the Central Bank has already front-loaded a tidy piece of the borrowing & remains with ~ Kes 148.6 billion to meet the Supplementary Budget I target · Part of the reason why Kenya has sought additional financing from the World Bank (i.e. > the US$750.0 Million DPO VII allocation) is to ensure that the pressures from Supplementary Budget I don't weigh too heavily on the domestic market

Julians Amboko

14,087 次观看 • 3 个月前

🗣️🗣️ Dear Nigerians, eni tó mọ yín ló ń ṣe yín (na person wey know you, dey do you) Cause things are happening in the 2025 budget! Federal Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs proposed N24 billion, but National Assembly approved N291 BILLION. The Federal Ministry of Agriculture’s budget went from N242 billion to N1.9 trillion OVERNIGHT. National Assembly added a whopping N1.7 TRILLION. 🤯 BTW, ARCON is now in the construction business? N1.05bn for a link bridge in Ebonyi State—for an agency responsible for advertising? These are all taxpayers' money. 💰 🎥 Watch till the end! #KontriMata #AskQuestions
6:05

🗣️🗣️ Dear Nigerians, eni tó mọ yín ló ń ṣe yín (na person wey know you, dey do you) Cause things are happening in the 2025 budget! Federal Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs proposed N24 billion, but National Assembly approved N291 BILLION. The Federal Ministry of Agriculture’s budget went from N242 billion to N1.9 trillion OVERNIGHT. National Assembly added a whopping N1.7 TRILLION. 🤯 BTW, ARCON is now in the construction business? N1.05bn for a link bridge in Ebonyi State—for an agency responsible for advertising? These are all taxpayers' money. 💰 🎥 Watch till the end! #KontriMata #AskQuestions

BudgIT Nigeria

59,480 次观看 • 1 年前

UPDATE: GOK's US$1.91 billion partial divestiture in Safaricom Plc approved The National Assembly's Public Debt & Privatization Committee Chair Hon. Abdi Shuriye has moved a motion for the House to adopt a joint report by his Committee & that of Finance and National Planning on the Partial sale of Safaricom shares owned by the Government. The two committees recommend: · The National Assembly approves the proposed US$1.6 billion (Kes 204.3 billion) partial divestiture by the government to Vodafone Kenya · The effective date of the National Assembly approval be April 1st, 2026 or any other later date pegged on the prerequisite approvals · The transaction shall be undertaken & concluded through the block trade platform of the Nairobi Securities Exchange · The government shall receive US$ 309 million (Kes 40.2 billion) upfront payment in lie of future dividend payments · All proceeds to be wired into the National Infrastructure Fund · There shall be no redundancy as part of this partial divestiture · There shall be no material change to the current Safaricom Plc ecosystem within 10 years of this partial divestiture
2:02

UPDATE: GOK's US$1.91 billion partial divestiture in Safaricom Plc approved The National Assembly's Public Debt & Privatization Committee Chair Hon. Abdi Shuriye has moved a motion for the House to adopt a joint report by his Committee & that of Finance and National Planning on the Partial sale of Safaricom shares owned by the Government. The two committees recommend: · The National Assembly approves the proposed US$1.6 billion (Kes 204.3 billion) partial divestiture by the government to Vodafone Kenya · The effective date of the National Assembly approval be April 1st, 2026 or any other later date pegged on the prerequisite approvals · The transaction shall be undertaken & concluded through the block trade platform of the Nairobi Securities Exchange · The government shall receive US$ 309 million (Kes 40.2 billion) upfront payment in lie of future dividend payments · All proceeds to be wired into the National Infrastructure Fund · There shall be no redundancy as part of this partial divestiture · There shall be no material change to the current Safaricom Plc ecosystem within 10 years of this partial divestiture

Julians Amboko

14,271 次观看 • 4 个月前

National Treasury CS, John Mbadi, says that the team that was working on simulations on the impact of PAYE bands adjustments has concluded its work & now what remains is for a decision to be taken. On May 11th (see quoted tweet) he told us initial estimates showed that PAYE bands adjustments (zero rating for < Kes 30,000 & lower rate for Kes 30,000 - Kes 50,000) would translate into a Kes 35.0 billion worth of revenue forgone by the Exchequer.
0:28

National Treasury CS, John Mbadi, says that the team that was working on simulations on the impact of PAYE bands adjustments has concluded its work & now what remains is for a decision to be taken. On May 11th (see quoted tweet) he told us initial estimates showed that PAYE bands adjustments (zero rating for < Kes 30,000 & lower rate for Kes 30,000 - Kes 50,000) would translate into a Kes 35.0 billion worth of revenue forgone by the Exchequer.

Julians Amboko

64,005 次观看 • 2 个月前

JAMB Registrar Prof. Ishaq Oloyede has debunked presenting 2024 budget performance and decried the misrepresentation of figures in the 2025 budget proposal presented to the National Assembly Joint Committee on Finance.
15:32

JAMB Registrar Prof. Ishaq Oloyede has debunked presenting 2024 budget performance and decried the misrepresentation of figures in the 2025 budget proposal presented to the National Assembly Joint Committee on Finance.

TallJohn🌍

49,403 次观看 • 1 年前

UPDATE: Kenya's 2026/27 Fiscal Framework The stalemate on the Equitable Share allocation for 2026/27 has been resolved. Kes 428.0 billion has been arrived at as the mutually agreed upon allocation for the financial year starting July 1st, 2026. This 1.9% increase to the planned Equitable Share allocation, considering no adjustment to the revenue numbers, now pushes the 2026/27 budget to Kes 4.857 trillion & the fiscal deficit to Kes 1.23 trillion, 5.9% of GDP.
1:32

UPDATE: Kenya's 2026/27 Fiscal Framework The stalemate on the Equitable Share allocation for 2026/27 has been resolved. Kes 428.0 billion has been arrived at as the mutually agreed upon allocation for the financial year starting July 1st, 2026. This 1.9% increase to the planned Equitable Share allocation, considering no adjustment to the revenue numbers, now pushes the 2026/27 budget to Kes 4.857 trillion & the fiscal deficit to Kes 1.23 trillion, 5.9% of GDP.

Julians Amboko

28,128 次观看 • 1 个月前

The National Assembly has approved a motion to reduce the publication period of 6 bills from 14 to 12 days. The bills include: · Tax Laws (Amendment) Bill 2024 · Tax Procedures (Amendment) Bill 2024 · Business Laws (Amendment) Bill 2024 The 3 bills seek to mobilise an additional Kes 174.6 billion worth of revenue in 2024/25 through a raft of new proposals, a number of which were in the rescinded Finance Bill 2024. The reduction of the publication period seeks to create a window for public participation ahead of the Dec 5th long recess date for the National Assembly. So what are some of the key issues as we head into public participation? A 🧵
5:06

The National Assembly has approved a motion to reduce the publication period of 6 bills from 14 to 12 days. The bills include: · Tax Laws (Amendment) Bill 2024 · Tax Procedures (Amendment) Bill 2024 · Business Laws (Amendment) Bill 2024 The 3 bills seek to mobilise an additional Kes 174.6 billion worth of revenue in 2024/25 through a raft of new proposals, a number of which were in the rescinded Finance Bill 2024. The reduction of the publication period seeks to create a window for public participation ahead of the Dec 5th long recess date for the National Assembly. So what are some of the key issues as we head into public participation? A 🧵

Julians Amboko

50,814 次观看 • 1 年前

There’s fiscal indiscipline, and then there’s what Kenya’s Finance Ministry (The National Treasury) does - sneaking in a second Supplementary Budget just two weeks before the end of the financial year. The Executive wants to raise spending by KES 18.24 billion ($140.8 million). Where that last-minute money is going? 🏛️ State House Kenya: Requesting an extra KES 1 billion. 👤 The Deputy President: Seeking authorization for KES 200 million more. 🛡️ Internal Security Ministry: Demanding another KES 1.55 billion. 📚 Education Ministry (Ministry of Education, Kenya (MoE)): Requesting an additional KES 1.5 billion—all of it earmarked for “Quality Assurance and Standards.” This mismatch between spending forecasts and execution reality is nothing new. In 2022, the Treasury projected that the fiscal deficit for FY 25/26 would drop below 4%. Instead, it has ballooned to 6.4%, with next year’s forecast looking just as dismal at 5.5%. With a track record this patchy, can Kenya plausibly hold onto the B3 credit rating upgrade it got from Moody's Ratings in January? As David Rogovic told me, while that upgrade reflected "lower near-term default risk," the rating remains constrained by weak points impossible to ignore: a massive fiscal deficit, a persistent inability to rein in spending, and dangerously weak debt affordability.
5:06

There’s fiscal indiscipline, and then there’s what Kenya’s Finance Ministry (The National Treasury) does - sneaking in a second Supplementary Budget just two weeks before the end of the financial year. The Executive wants to raise spending by KES 18.24 billion ($140.8 million). Where that last-minute money is going? 🏛️ State House Kenya: Requesting an extra KES 1 billion. 👤 The Deputy President: Seeking authorization for KES 200 million more. 🛡️ Internal Security Ministry: Demanding another KES 1.55 billion. 📚 Education Ministry (Ministry of Education, Kenya (MoE)): Requesting an additional KES 1.5 billion—all of it earmarked for “Quality Assurance and Standards.” This mismatch between spending forecasts and execution reality is nothing new. In 2022, the Treasury projected that the fiscal deficit for FY 25/26 would drop below 4%. Instead, it has ballooned to 6.4%, with next year’s forecast looking just as dismal at 5.5%. With a track record this patchy, can Kenya plausibly hold onto the B3 credit rating upgrade it got from Moody's Ratings in January? As David Rogovic told me, while that upgrade reflected "lower near-term default risk," the rating remains constrained by weak points impossible to ignore: a massive fiscal deficit, a persistent inability to rein in spending, and dangerously weak debt affordability.

Ramah Nyang

19,644 次观看 • 1 个月前

The 🇩🇪 Cabinet has approved the draft federal budget for 2025. The defence budget will increase significantly by approx. €10 billion to €62.43 billion, with an additional €24 billion from the special fund for the #Bundeswehr, and thus a total of €86 billion this year. 1/3
0:59

The 🇩🇪 Cabinet has approved the draft federal budget for 2025. The defence budget will increase significantly by approx. €10 billion to €62.43 billion, with an additional €24 billion from the special fund for the #Bundeswehr, and thus a total of €86 billion this year. 1/3

Germany at NATO

16,347 次观看 • 1 年前

National Treasury CS, John Mbadi, has told the National Assembly's Budget & Appropriations Committee that at the moment, only that 2031 US$1.5 billion 9.75% Note presents a scenario of looming default risk for Kenya. The Note, which was floated in February 2024 as part of the liability management for the US$2.0 billion bullet maturity, has a weighted average life of 6 years, armotization kicks in starting 2029.
0:26

National Treasury CS, John Mbadi, has told the National Assembly's Budget & Appropriations Committee that at the moment, only that 2031 US$1.5 billion 9.75% Note presents a scenario of looming default risk for Kenya. The Note, which was floated in February 2024 as part of the liability management for the US$2.0 billion bullet maturity, has a weighted average life of 6 years, armotization kicks in starting 2029.

Julians Amboko

41,851 次观看 • 2 个月前

Some simple budget math: Give out $4 trillion in tax cuts and cut spending by $1 trillion, and you'll get a $3 trillion increase in the national debt. Denying these realities doesn't change them (and yes, the bond market has noticed).
0:45

Some simple budget math: Give out $4 trillion in tax cuts and cut spending by $1 trillion, and you'll get a $3 trillion increase in the national debt. Denying these realities doesn't change them (and yes, the bond market has noticed).

Justin Wolfers

215,009 次观看 • 1 年前

On Safaricom valuation: —National Treasury retained KCB Investment Bank as transaction adviser to conduct an independent valuation for the proposed Safaricom share divestment. —Market valuation relied on enterprise value and trading multiples. EV EBITDA analysis implied a range of KES 22.3 to KES 33.5 per share, with an average of about KES 26.2. PE multiples implied even lower values. —Discounted cash flow implied KES 18.5 per share, while the discounted dividend model implied about KES 23.6 per share. —Treasury ended up anchoring the pricing on the six-month VWAP from 2 June to 2 December 2025, which stood at about KES 27.5 per share. —Comparable telco valuations across Africa and the Middle East showed an EV/EBITDA multiple ceiling of about 8.3x, which Treasury said the transaction also achieved. —Treasury also reviewed 12-month target prices from various banks: Barclays KES 31 from November 2025, Investec KES 30 from July 2025, Absa KES 30.1 from October 2025, with NCBA and FIDA in a similar range, and HSBC KES 28 from November 2024. —While some analysts projected up to KES 36, Treasury argues that target prices are forward-looking and must be discounted to present value, bringing KES 36 to roughly KES 32 today. —Final negotiations with Vodacom settled at KES 34 per share, above VWAP, above prevailing market price, and implying about a 19% VWAP Premium
7:36

On Safaricom valuation: —National Treasury retained KCB Investment Bank as transaction adviser to conduct an independent valuation for the proposed Safaricom share divestment. —Market valuation relied on enterprise value and trading multiples. EV EBITDA analysis implied a range of KES 22.3 to KES 33.5 per share, with an average of about KES 26.2. PE multiples implied even lower values. —Discounted cash flow implied KES 18.5 per share, while the discounted dividend model implied about KES 23.6 per share. —Treasury ended up anchoring the pricing on the six-month VWAP from 2 June to 2 December 2025, which stood at about KES 27.5 per share. —Comparable telco valuations across Africa and the Middle East showed an EV/EBITDA multiple ceiling of about 8.3x, which Treasury said the transaction also achieved. —Treasury also reviewed 12-month target prices from various banks: Barclays KES 31 from November 2025, Investec KES 30 from July 2025, Absa KES 30.1 from October 2025, with NCBA and FIDA in a similar range, and HSBC KES 28 from November 2024. —While some analysts projected up to KES 36, Treasury argues that target prices are forward-looking and must be discounted to present value, bringing KES 36 to roughly KES 32 today. —Final negotiations with Vodacom settled at KES 34 per share, above VWAP, above prevailing market price, and implying about a 19% VWAP Premium

Mwango Capital

25,532 次观看 • 6 个月前