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Vance is making a very American mistake: he is confusing overlapping interests with obedience. China does not want the Strait of Hormuz turned into a toll booth. China does not want nuclear proliferation. China has reasons to keep relations with Washington stable. None of that means Beijing has agreed...

15,765 просмотров • 3 дней назад •via X (Twitter)

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump has barely launched Operation Economic Outcast against Iran, and China is already calling his bluff. Beijing says it will not comply, and is threatening retaliation if Washington targets Chinese companies for continuing to trade with Tehran. That's a HUGE problem for Trump's strategy. Operation Economic Outcast is supposed to sever the international financial lifelines keeping Tehran alive. But Iran cannot be economically isolated if major trading partners simply refuse to participate. Washington can sanction Iran, but the real test has always been whether it is prepared to sanction the powerful countries that keep doing business with it. China has now effectively dared Trump to try. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman have announced a preliminary agreement over managing the Strait of Hormuz. Iran would control incoming maritime traffic and retain the right to impose service fees, while outbound traffic would use the Omani corridor. Crucially, Tehran says the agreement does not mean Hormuz is immediately reopening. Iran says the Strait will remain closed until the U.S naval blockade is lifted and the terms of the broader MOU are honoured. And there are signs Washington may already be moving in that direction. According to an Al Arabiya report, Pakistan's Asim Munir conveyed an American proposal to Tehran: Washington is prepared to lift the naval blockade and sanctions if Iran guarantees free passage through Hormuz and pressures the Houthis to stop attacking Saudi energy infrastructure. There is another important signal. The State Department is reportedly preparing to return diplomats to a string of Middle Eastern embassies evacuated during the war, suggesting Washington does not currently expect large-scale fighting to resume. Put all of this together, and Trump's strategy starts looking very different from the rhetoric; the direction of travel today may actually be toward a deal. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

268,386 просмотров • 14 дней назад

Mearsheimer is honest about power. He dares to say the quiet part of Western politics out loud: international relations are not a fairy tale of “good guys” and “bad guys”, but a naked struggle for survival, security, and dominance. That is why, to him, there is no moral distinction between America and China. But he still misunderstands China. His offensive realism has one fixed Western code: • A great power must seek regional hegemony. • A great power must push others into dependence. • A great power must turn its neighborhood into a Monroe Doctrine. So when he sees China rise, he assumes China must want to become America in Asia. That is where he gets China wrong. America’s strategy is exclusion. It cannot tolerate another strong power in its own hemisphere. That is why Cuba, Venezuela, and any independent force in Latin America become permanent targets. China’s strategy is not a Chinese Monroe Doctrine. China’s priority is stability around itself, because China’s own development requires peace, trade, logistics, markets, energy routes, and regional order. But stability does not mean turning neighbors into colonies. It does not mean hundreds of military bases. It does not mean color revolutions, proxy wars, sanctions, coups, and permanent ideological containment. China spent forty years building roads, ports, factories, power grids, railways, supply chains, and markets. America exported war. China exported infrastructure. America’s model is control. China’s model is connectivity. That is why Western realists often misread China. They assume interest maximization must mean domination. They assume security must mean exclusion. They assume strength must become hegemony. But China’s civilizational instinct is different. China does not need every country to become Chinese. It does not need every neighbor to become a satellite. It does not need to export ideology, stage revolutions, or install puppet regimes. China’s highest security is not ruling everyone around it. It is building a region where trade, development, and interdependence make war too expensive and chaos too stupid. Mearsheimer is right that great powers compete. But he is wrong to assume every great power dreams in American grammar. China does not want to become America in Asia. China wants Asia to stop being America’s battlefield.

𝘊𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘦

14,030 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

💥 Carl Zha Explains How China Would Really Fight the United States 💥 Carl Zha argues that people fundamentally misunderstand how China approaches confrontation with the United States because they keep imagining a Hollywood-style military showdown where Chinese fleets sail around the world to fight America symmetrically. But China’s real strength is not global military projection. Its real strength is economic power, industrial dominance, and control over supply chains the U.S. itself depends on. That is why, when Washington escalated the tariff war and sanctions campaign, Beijing responded not by trying to mirror American military behavior, but by targeting areas where the U.S. is structurally vulnerable. Rare earth exports. Industrial supply chains. Access to materials essential for the F-35, Patriot missiles, and large parts of the American military-industrial complex. For example, China openly instructed companies operating inside China not to comply with U.S. secondary sanctions targeting Iranian oil trade. In other words, Beijing signaled that American law does not possess automatic extraterritorial authority inside China anymore. That is a major shift in the global balance of economic power. Carl Zha says China does not need to defeat the United States by copying the American model of empire. It fights where it is strongest: production, industry, trade, and economic leverage. Because in a world still dependent on Chinese goods, Beijing understands that economic warfare may matter more than aircraft carriers. .Carl Zha .Syriana Analysis

Kevork Almassian

37,107 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

China has banned the export of all dual-use items to Japanese military users and for Japan’s military use. The aim is to contain Japan’s remilitarization and its attempt to possess nuclear weapons, said the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Sanae Takaichi lamented at the G7 that China’s rare earth sanctions are affecting Japan’s economy. This is the same person who openly threatened China by saying that “a Taiwan emergency is a Japan emergency.” A defeated fascist state, once disarmed by the anti-fascist order after turning Asia into a slaughterhouse, is now trying to insert itself into China’s internal affairs and present that as “security.” Then when China responds with economic measures, Japan plays the victim. Classic. Japan should be glad that China is not the United States. If a foreign leader said “a Cuba emergency is our emergency” to Washington, the U.S. would not respond with polite export controls. It would call it a national security threat, sanction everyone involved, send warships, threaten regime change, and may even kidnap that leader and his family within a week, drag them back to the United States, and try them on drug trafficking charges. Trump attacked Iran for months under the excuse that Iran must not even have the chance to build a nuclear weapon. Iran did not say “Cuba is our emergency.” Iran did not invade the U.S. Iran did not station forces near Florida. Yet Washington bombed Tehran, assassinated Khamenei, blockaded Hormuz, and called it security. Japan, meanwhile, openly links itself to Taiwan, challenges China’s sovereignty, pushes remilitarization, flirts with nuclear ambitions, and then cries when China restricts dual-use exports. Japan should understand one thing very clearly: China’s economic measures are restraint. Perhaps too restrained. That is exactly why Japan dares to challenge China’s core red lines of sovereignty again and again. In the end, a defeated militarist power does not get to threaten the victorious country, interfere in its territorial question, and then demand uninterrupted access to strategic materials. If Japan wants stable relations with China, it should stop pretending dialogue means China staying silent while Tokyo rearms, provokes, and hides behind the G7. China is indeed not the United States. That is why Japan is still being warned through economic tools instead of being treated the way Washington treats countries that cross its red lines.

𝘊𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘦

23,164 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Rubio’s entire statement can be translated into one paragraph: America preached free markets when it was winning. Now that China is succeeding under the rules Washington claimed to worship, competition becomes “Chinese aggression,” industrial policy becomes “cheating,” and American decline becomes someone else’s crime. China never showed much interest in becoming the world’s policeman. It would much rather let the United States stand in front, absorb the anger, finance the wars, patrol the oceans, and exhaust itself—while China develops, trades, builds, and moves forward. Washington’s real problem is not that China wants to replace it. It is that America cannot tolerate any country becoming strong enough to ignore its permission. The Soviet Union. Germany. Japan. The European Union. Whenever another power rises, American paranoia activates. It does not compete. It sanctions. Blocks. Threatens. Cuts access. Weaponizes finance. Then calls the damage “defending the rules-based order.” But China is the opponent Washington was never psychologically prepared for. The more it is contained, the more it substitutes. The more it is sanctioned, the more it builds. The more it is denied, the more it learns to live without America. The United States has no memory of rebuilding from national ruin. China does. That is why Washington experiences setbacks as humiliation, while China experiences them as instructions. And Rubio’s Taiwan remarks expose the fraud behind Washington’s language of “stability.” The United States says it opposes any change to the status quo—not because the status quo is sacred, but because permanent division serves American power. China is expected to tolerate separatism, foreign arms, political interference, and an island turned into a strategic pressure point indefinitely. Washington calls that “peace.” But any attempt by China to end the arrangement becomes “coercion.” So Rubio’s message is simple: We lost the free-market competition we claimed to believe in. China kept advancing despite our attempts to stop it. Direct confrontation is becoming too dangerous. But we still intend to preserve every geopolitical advantage created by Chinese division. America is not asking for stability because it has accepted China. It is asking for a strategic pause while keeping Taiwan frozen as leverage. Containment failed. The appetite for containment did not.

𝘊𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘦

36,226 просмотров • 1 месяц назад