正在加载视频...

视频加载失败

Warren Buffett: "You have a huge advantage over Andrew Carnegie and…Rockefeller…" While Carnegie was in steel and Rockefeller in oil, Buffett explained they couldn't quickly shift into another business line. "You can rearrange your business empire, which you own through [your] portfolio at a moment's notice with practically no...

70,494 次观看 • 3 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

0 条评论

暂无评论

原始帖子的评论将显示在这里

相关视频

Warren Buffett was asked what he means when he says he doesn’t understand a business. His answer: “It’s not a question of understanding the product. It’s the predictability of the economics of the situation 10 years out — and that’s our problem.” ___ Buffett isn’t saying he can’t understand what a business does. He understands steel. He understands homebuilding. The product, the distribution, the customers — that’s the easy part. What he’s asking is something far more demanding: can I predict the economics of this business with reasonable confidence a decade from now? That’s an entirely different question and why most businesses fall under the “too-hard” pile for Buffett. Here’s an exercise worth trying the next time you’re reviewing a stock: Take a blank piece of paper. No spreadsheet. No model. Just write out your best estimates of what revenues, free cash flow, and earnings will look like over the next five years. Then calculate what you’re paying for the entire business today — and ask yourself honestly whether you’re being well compensated for that ownership. Your estimates will likely be off. That’s fine. That’s not the point. The point is to notice which businesses you can make confident assumptions about five years out — and which ones leave you staring at a “confused page”. That gap in confidence is exactly what Buffett is talking about. You can see an example of how to do this in Rose Celine Investments 🌹 post on $DLO ___ 🎙️ Berkshire 2000 Annual Meeting | CNBC Warren Buffett Archive (04/29/2000)

Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®

42,278 次观看 • 3 个月前

Warren Buffett just warned that some of the biggest names in AI might collapse soon. And he said it while revealing he had personally put $31 billion into one of them... Google, Microsoft, and Amazon are now laying out hundreds of billions in capex to stay in the AI race. Buffett called that real money, the kind that was never required back when software was cheap to run. He said these companies have no choice but to keep spending at this scale, because none of them can afford to be the one that blinks. In his own words, they are "playing a game they don't want to play." But the one AI company Buffett actually bought is Google. Berkshire now holds a stake worth more than $31 billion, and for weeks Wall Street assumed the credit belonged to Greg Abel, who took over as CEO in January and ran the position up on his watch. But Buffett admitted he "initiated" the investment. He usually never reveals who makes a call. The Google position already sits behind only Apple and American Express in Berkshire's stock portfolio, and last month Berkshire bought $10 billion of it directly from the company in a private placement. Then he undercut his own trade. When asked why he chose Alphabet over the rest of the Mag 7, Buffett said he does not even like it as much as four or five other businesses Berkshire already owns. He bought it the way he buys anything, as a good company available at a fair price. For years he waved off the Apple question by calling it a consumer company. This time he let the AI label on Google stand, and bought it anyway. Buffett also said the vast majority of what Wall Street pushes, on the order of 90 to 95%, is merchandising, because Wall Street only cares whether it can sell you something. He said he cannot remember the last research report that dug into the actual returns a business earns. Everyone fixates on next quarter instead. He also brought up IBM, which owned its market for decades until a rival offered its customers a better deal and its best business cracked. He brought up A&P, the biggest retailer in America in the 1930s, a company he said held a commanding position that later vanished completely. Buffett was describing the AI leaders as much as anyone: The most dominant company on Earth today is not promised to be dominant in ten years. So the most famous technology skeptic in investing put $31 billion into the AI trade and at the same time warned that the companies leading it are stuck in a war with no exit. What does Buffett see coming that the rest of the market doesn't?

Ricardo

230,317 次观看 • 1 个月前

Warren Buffett: "It is a different game that requires a different type of person to enjoy it." At 94 years old, Warren Buffett has a clear preference when it comes to investing, and it's not real estate. When asked about real estate versus stocks, Buffett argues the stock market wins on almost every practical dimension. "There is simply much more opportunity in the United States security market than in real estate." His reasoning comes down to three things: speed, simplicity, and certainty of completion. In stocks, you can execute billions of dollars worth of business anonymously in five minutes, and once the trade is done, it's done. The completion rate is essentially 100% once buyer and seller agree on price. Real estate is the opposite. You're dealing with a single owner or family that may have held a property for a long time, possibly borrowed too much against it, or is facing negative trends. Every transaction becomes an enormous, drawn-out decision. "In real estate, signing the deal is just the start of another phase where people negotiate more and more things." Buffett contrasts this with the stock market: "If someone needs to sell 20,000 shares of Berkshire and the price is right, it is done in five seconds and closes every time." His late partner Charlie Munger took a different view. Munger enjoyed real estate deals and continued doing them even in the last five years of his life. But Buffett says that if Munger had to choose exclusively between the two at age 21, even he would have chosen stocks. For Buffett, the conclusion is simple: "We find it much better when people are ready to pick up the phone and you can do hundreds of millions of dollars of business in a day. I have been spoiled by this efficiency, and I like being spoiled, so we will keep it that way." Real estate can produce great returns, but the friction involved in negotiations, multiple parties, and drawn-out timelines makes it a fundamentally different game. For most investors, the stock market offers far more opportunity with far less complexity.

Big Brain Investing

42,809 次观看 • 4 个月前