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We asked stephen balaban (co-founder of Lambda) about AI pessimism. "In general, everyone underestimates what exponential growth looks like." "Think about how good code generation has gotten over the past 90 days." "In a couple of years, you will have a function that goes from cash to software." "That's... show more

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22,394 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce •via X (Twitter)

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Anthony Benjamin profil fotoğrafı

Anthony Benjamin1 yıl önce

@stephenbalaban @LambdaAPI Nice clip

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VistaShares1 yıl önce

From semiconductors to data centers, AIS targets the critical components behind AI's exponential growth. Capture potential returns from this transformative technology sector.

Raul Miller profil fotoğrafı

Raul Miller1 yıl önce

@stephenbalaban @LambdaAPI If AI can get good enough to provide reliable, readable transcripts of arbitrary video and podcasts, I think I could live with that.

Saurabh dhuliya profil fotoğrafı

Saurabh dhuliya1 yıl önce

@garrytan @stephenbalaban @LambdaAPI If AI could ask smart questions by itself, then maybe we wouldn’t need to code so much — we could just talk to it and let it guide the process

Ivan Landabaso profil fotoğrafı

Ivan Landabaso1 yıl önce

@stephenbalaban @LambdaAPI yes, but also

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"In the future, you won't need any software at all. The neural network will completely replace it." - stephen balaban, co-founder of Lambda "Here's the idea: instead of generating a program, just go to ChatGPT and say, 'Hi, please behave like a calculator or a spreadsheet.'" "'Generate an ASCII user interface for me. And I want you to essentially just respond, implement the logic of that program in your mind.'" "This is what I call neural software. Normal software is really brittle. 'Neural software' can't have bugs, only misunderstandings." "Large language models will be the software you interact with."

"In the future, you won't need any software at all. The neural network will completely replace it." - stephen balaban, co-founder of Lambda "Here's the idea: instead of generating a program, just go to ChatGPT and say, 'Hi, please behave like a calculator or a spreadsheet.'" "'Generate an ASCII user interface for me. And I want you to essentially just respond, implement the logic of that program in your mind.'" "This is what I call neural software. Normal software is really brittle. 'Neural software' can't have bugs, only misunderstandings." "Large language models will be the software you interact with."

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"In the future, you won't need any software at all. The neural network will completely replace it." - stephen balaban, co-founder of Lambda "Here's the idea: instead of generating a program, just go to ChatGPT and say, 'Hi, please behave like a calculator or a spreadsheet.'" "'Generate an ASCII user interface for me. And I want you to essentially just respond, implement the logic of that program in your mind.'" "This is what I call neural software. Normal software is really brittle. 'Neural software' can't have bugs, only misunderstandings." "Large language models will be the software you interact with." From Stephen's appearance on the show in May.

"In the future, you won't need any software at all. The neural network will completely replace it." - stephen balaban, co-founder of Lambda "Here's the idea: instead of generating a program, just go to ChatGPT and say, 'Hi, please behave like a calculator or a spreadsheet.'" "'Generate an ASCII user interface for me. And I want you to essentially just respond, implement the logic of that program in your mind.'" "This is what I call neural software. Normal software is really brittle. 'Neural software' can't have bugs, only misunderstandings." "Large language models will be the software you interact with." From Stephen's appearance on the show in May.

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We asked Joshua Meier (Co-Founder Chai Discovery) about the future of AI in biotechnology. "We have scientists working for years trying to enable a certain class of drug program." "If we can use machine learning to jump to potential (drug) solutions, that could really push up the bar." "Everyone has to be an AI company now to compete. What’s that going to look like in biotech if you don't have access to a technology like this?"

We asked Joshua Meier (Co-Founder Chai Discovery) about the future of AI in biotechnology. "We have scientists working for years trying to enable a certain class of drug program." "If we can use machine learning to jump to potential (drug) solutions, that could really push up the bar." "Everyone has to be an AI company now to compete. What’s that going to look like in biotech if you don't have access to a technology like this?"

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We asked Alex Blania (CEO of World) about AI taking over the internet. "A big trigger point will be once you have an open-source, very competent agent." "That's where things will get exponential. 90%+ of all activity on the internet will be AI-generated after." "Until now, we trusted everything we see on the internet by default. That will completely flip." "It's going to be a profound shift."

We asked Alex Blania (CEO of World) about AI taking over the internet. "A big trigger point will be once you have an open-source, very competent agent." "That's where things will get exponential. 90%+ of all activity on the internet will be AI-generated after." "Until now, we trusted everything we see on the internet by default. That will completely flip." "It's going to be a profound shift."

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ChinaTalk's Jordan Schneider takes the other side of Chamath's thesis that Taiwan will lose its strategic importance in 18 months: "The percentage of chips that are going to be manufactured in Taiwan 18 months from now is still going to be 85-90%." "If that's the only thing you care about, you will still have a global economic catastrophe if the lights go off in Taiwan in 2028." "Why should you care about Taiwan besides chips? I mean, it's a democracy. People deserve to have self-determination." "From a geostrategic perspective, there's also this concept of the first island chain. It makes the broader Pacific architecture that America has built over the past 75 years in Asia a lot more tenuous if all the sudden the anchor to both Southeast Asia as well as North Asia becomes a PLA base." "It's not all about technology. There are other risks, incentives, institutional dynamics, and historical dynamics at play." "And there are a whole lot of downsides to starting something that you don't know how is going to end. Which is a lesson that Xi has gotten to relearn from Putin over the past 5 years."

ChinaTalk's Jordan Schneider takes the other side of Chamath's thesis that Taiwan will lose its strategic importance in 18 months: "The percentage of chips that are going to be manufactured in Taiwan 18 months from now is still going to be 85-90%." "If that's the only thing you care about, you will still have a global economic catastrophe if the lights go off in Taiwan in 2028." "Why should you care about Taiwan besides chips? I mean, it's a democracy. People deserve to have self-determination." "From a geostrategic perspective, there's also this concept of the first island chain. It makes the broader Pacific architecture that America has built over the past 75 years in Asia a lot more tenuous if all the sudden the anchor to both Southeast Asia as well as North Asia becomes a PLA base." "It's not all about technology. There are other risks, incentives, institutional dynamics, and historical dynamics at play." "And there are a whole lot of downsides to starting something that you don't know how is going to end. Which is a lesson that Xi has gotten to relearn from Putin over the past 5 years."

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We asked nico (Co-Founder of Fundamental) about hyperscaler competition and principles in AI development. "I think they would if they could (copy Shortcut)." “Even if you made an effort to copy me, you'd have to believe the things I believe in wholeheartedly.” "I think most of the people at frontier labs don't care about excel or they think that we're going to an input/output model anyway." “I think there's like a bajillion dollars to make in between those two states...”

We asked nico (Co-Founder of Fundamental) about hyperscaler competition and principles in AI development. "I think they would if they could (copy Shortcut)." “Even if you made an effort to copy me, you'd have to believe the things I believe in wholeheartedly.” "I think most of the people at frontier labs don't care about excel or they think that we're going to an input/output model anyway." “I think there's like a bajillion dollars to make in between those two states...”

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"AI has become a symbol for a technology revolution that people know is changing everything about their way of life and the economy." - Ro Khanna on TBPN today "They feel like they don't have control, that they don't have a full say in what that's going to mean." "I don't think we can be oblivious to peoples' concerns about keeping jobs, and keeping social cohesion, and making sure their kids are going to have a good economic future."

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We asked Walden (Co-Founder of Cognition) about building a truly AI-native company. “At a minimum, we can’t be hiring people whose whole aspiration is to write code that Devin will do in 1–2 years.” "A lot of companies at our stage, they have like an internal tools team to maintain all the different services that engineers internally use." "And we can just staff that team with Devins, and then basically have engineers just sending requests to those Devins for how to do that work."

We asked Walden (Co-Founder of Cognition) about building a truly AI-native company. “At a minimum, we can’t be hiring people whose whole aspiration is to write code that Devin will do in 1–2 years.” "A lot of companies at our stage, they have like an internal tools team to maintain all the different services that engineers internally use." "And we can just staff that team with Devins, and then basically have engineers just sending requests to those Devins for how to do that work."

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We asked Brad Gerstner about the future of AI and America. "The age of AI is going to be the biggest supercycle of our lifetimes." "But it's going to lead to a lot of dislocation. The world will end up in a better place, but it doesn't mean that everybody ends up in a better place." "We need our best and brightest to rethink the social contract in a way that holds this fragile experiment (that is America) together." "We can't take for granted that we can go through this magnitude of change that AI is going to bring and that nothing will break."

We asked Brad Gerstner about the future of AI and America. "The age of AI is going to be the biggest supercycle of our lifetimes." "But it's going to lead to a lot of dislocation. The world will end up in a better place, but it doesn't mean that everybody ends up in a better place." "We need our best and brightest to rethink the social contract in a way that holds this fragile experiment (that is America) together." "We can't take for granted that we can go through this magnitude of change that AI is going to bring and that nothing will break."

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Sierra Co-Founder Bret Taylor predicts that within 3-4 years consumers will prefer businesses with AI phone agents over those that rely on traditional call centers. "If I have to call a restaurant to make a reservation, I'm going to a different place. If you don't have OpenTable or Resy, I'm out." "I think we're going to get to the point where people demand an AI because they're not going to want to wait on hold. We're not 100% there and we're just paying down the debt of bad tech that we've had for the past 10 years. But I'm hopeful that in three or four years, this will be the norm." "The problem was we had 10 to 15 years of bots that were really bad. If you were talking to an AI more than three years ago, it sucked. Now you can talk to an AI, and it's conversational, it's multilingual, it has access to systems. The AI agents of today are like the horse and carriage versus a flying car." From his appearance on the show earlier this month.

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We asked rahul about the global reach of ChatGPT and the emphasis on personality in AI models. "When you want to get to the one to like the remaining 90% of the users, do you want a model that thinks for longer? You want more personality?" "They definitely leaned in on personality, which I think is interesting." "It's kind of different than a (social media) feed in some ways because you have this person you talk to. It's like a relationship and then it just switches up on how it talks to you."

We asked rahul about the global reach of ChatGPT and the emphasis on personality in AI models. "When you want to get to the one to like the remaining 90% of the users, do you want a model that thinks for longer? You want more personality?" "They definitely leaned in on personality, which I think is interesting." "It's kind of different than a (social media) feed in some ways because you have this person you talk to. It's like a relationship and then it just switches up on how it talks to you."

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Big warning from Apollo Pres Jim Zelter "going to get more secular distress than cyclical distress". "I think you're going to get more secular distress than cyclical distress. That's very important. When we think about secular distress, I think the development of AI will change broad business models. We've talked a lot about healthcare technology.... about the outsourcing businesses... about software, enterprise software. The AI impact can have dramatic impact on those business models. And typically, when you go back in the underwriting memo, you think about your base case and the downside being down 5, 10, 15%. When you have secular dislocation, you've missed the downside by multiples. And that's what you're probably going to have" Great interview Lisa Abramowicz annmarie hordern #oott

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Sequoia’s Shaun Maguire wrote a private hardware manifesto arguing that over the next 25 years, most of the money will be made in hardware: "Every software revolution is preceded by a hardware revolution." "To have the iOS App Store that enabled Uber, DoorDash, and all of these great companies - you needed to have the iPhone." "This AI revolution - we're seeing what it can do from the software layer, but it's still limited by hardware." "The hardware we were doing for a long time was all following Moore's Law. It was all branching out of this decision in the mid-1950s to go all in on the silicon supply chain." "That has created magic, and there's still a couple orders of magnitude of juice to squeeze, but we’re hitting fundamental physics limits - Dennard scaling, things like that." "I think this tech tree is branching into humanoid robots, into silicon photonics, into orbital data centers - all of these new hardware areas where there's going to be 20+ years of progress." "There's going to be incredible businesses built on the back of this. And a lot of dumpster fires." From his appearance on the show in March.

Sequoia’s Shaun Maguire wrote a private hardware manifesto arguing that over the next 25 years, most of the money will be made in hardware: "Every software revolution is preceded by a hardware revolution." "To have the iOS App Store that enabled Uber, DoorDash, and all of these great companies - you needed to have the iPhone." "This AI revolution - we're seeing what it can do from the software layer, but it's still limited by hardware." "The hardware we were doing for a long time was all following Moore's Law. It was all branching out of this decision in the mid-1950s to go all in on the silicon supply chain." "That has created magic, and there's still a couple orders of magnitude of juice to squeeze, but we’re hitting fundamental physics limits - Dennard scaling, things like that." "I think this tech tree is branching into humanoid robots, into silicon photonics, into orbital data centers - all of these new hardware areas where there's going to be 20+ years of progress." "There's going to be incredible businesses built on the back of this. And a lot of dumpster fires." From his appearance on the show in March.

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"Instead of an AI generated image being an embed inside of a presentation, you're going to start to see the entire presentation slide as generated." Stephen Balaban, Lambda CEO discusses the future power of AI generation

"Instead of an AI generated image being an embed inside of a presentation, you're going to start to see the entire presentation slide as generated." Stephen Balaban, Lambda CEO discusses the future power of AI generation

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"We're careening towards a brick wall. The end of a supercycle is here." - Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin "The start of the next supercycle is likely... going to look like moving the economy onto decentralized rails." "AI is going to supercharge all aspects of science, and we're going to be living in a world that is indescribable at this point by 20 years from now." "I'm an optimist and an idealist, and I think even though we're moving through incredibly difficult times... that's kind of necessary because things are so broken that they have to kind of fall apart, kind of collapse, in order to make way for better systems."

"We're careening towards a brick wall. The end of a supercycle is here." - Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin "The start of the next supercycle is likely... going to look like moving the economy onto decentralized rails." "AI is going to supercharge all aspects of science, and we're going to be living in a world that is indescribable at this point by 20 years from now." "I'm an optimist and an idealist, and I think even though we're moving through incredibly difficult times... that's kind of necessary because things are so broken that they have to kind of fall apart, kind of collapse, in order to make way for better systems."

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IN NEWS: Traversal launches out of stealth and raises $48M in seed and Series A funding. "With AI-written code, there’s going to be a Cambrian explosion. Most of it is going to be written by AI systems. It's going to get even harder to debug because we don't actually understand what's written." - Anish Agarwal "I think that (majority AI-written code) will throttle the use of AI software engineering tools because if I'm Head of Infrastructure I will think 'I don't trust this'."

IN NEWS: Traversal launches out of stealth and raises $48M in seed and Series A funding. "With AI-written code, there’s going to be a Cambrian explosion. Most of it is going to be written by AI systems. It's going to get even harder to debug because we don't actually understand what's written." - Anish Agarwal "I think that (majority AI-written code) will throttle the use of AI software engineering tools because if I'm Head of Infrastructure I will think 'I don't trust this'."

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We asked Luca Netz 🐧✳️ (CEO Pudgy Penguins) about the future of toys. "I saw this coming two years ago (AI in toys) and I basically jumped for joy." "Our toys have QR codes for NFT redemption, creating a whole crypto funnel." "I'm pretty optimistic about having a watered-down LLM, that's going to be a big product for kids." "This is a complete paradigm shift. I think no one's really ready for how the world is going to change."

We asked Luca Netz 🐧✳️ (CEO Pudgy Penguins) about the future of toys. "I saw this coming two years ago (AI in toys) and I basically jumped for joy." "Our toys have QR codes for NFT redemption, creating a whole crypto funnel." "I'm pretty optimistic about having a watered-down LLM, that's going to be a big product for kids." "This is a complete paradigm shift. I think no one's really ready for how the world is going to change."

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We asked Favorite Daughter co-founder Sara Foster if they're thinking about using AI. "We will embrace the right AI in certain [situations]," she said. "It's so tempting, because at the end of the day, your customers' trust in you, your customers' loyalty to you, it's all you have." "We've wrestled with all the ways to spend a little bit less. But it's tough." "At the end of the day, none of this matters if the product is not good. First and foremost, that is our focus."

We asked Favorite Daughter co-founder Sara Foster if they're thinking about using AI. "We will embrace the right AI in certain [situations]," she said. "It's so tempting, because at the end of the day, your customers' trust in you, your customers' loyalty to you, it's all you have." "We've wrestled with all the ways to spend a little bit less. But it's tough." "At the end of the day, none of this matters if the product is not good. First and foremost, that is our focus."

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We asked David Hsu (founder of Retool) about new AI use cases. "The US has invested $1-1.5T into AI, but revenue is only $20-30B. That's a crappy 3% ROI." "My guess is 80% of that revenue is ChatGPT + cloud. But chat is pretty limited, is it going to grow 30x from where we are now?" "Can we figure out some LLM uses cases beyond just chat? What we think is missing is leveraging LLMs to automate labor." "What we're here to really solve is, can we actually allow LLMs to do things in your business (like approving orders or plans). The next frontier for AI is AI that actually does things." "I think we're almost there. That's what we are working on."

We asked David Hsu (founder of Retool) about new AI use cases. "The US has invested $1-1.5T into AI, but revenue is only $20-30B. That's a crappy 3% ROI." "My guess is 80% of that revenue is ChatGPT + cloud. But chat is pretty limited, is it going to grow 30x from where we are now?" "Can we figure out some LLM uses cases beyond just chat? What we think is missing is leveraging LLMs to automate labor." "What we're here to really solve is, can we actually allow LLMs to do things in your business (like approving orders or plans). The next frontier for AI is AI that actually does things." "I think we're almost there. That's what we are working on."

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We talked to Carl Pei (Co-Founder & CEO Nothing) about the future of AI in smartphones. "The smartphone is one of the best devices for applied AI." "It has the distribution, but it also has the data." "I do believe that in the next 10 years we will all be carrying another sensor as well." "Sometimes the phone is in our pockets and we need another sensor to capture data for us."

We talked to Carl Pei (Co-Founder & CEO Nothing) about the future of AI in smartphones. "The smartphone is one of the best devices for applied AI." "It has the distribution, but it also has the data." "I do believe that in the next 10 years we will all be carrying another sensor as well." "Sometimes the phone is in our pockets and we need another sensor to capture data for us."

TBPN

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