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We asked stephen balaban (co-founder of Lambda) about AI pessimism. "In general, everyone underestimates what exponential growth looks like." "Think about how good code generation has gotten over the past 90 days." "In a couple of years, you will have a function that goes from cash to software." "That's... show more

TBPN

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22,394 次观看 • 1 年前 •via X (Twitter)

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5 条评论

Anthony Benjamin 的头像

Anthony Benjamin1 年前

@stephenbalaban @LambdaAPI Nice clip

VistaShares 的头像

VistaShares1 年前

From semiconductors to data centers, AIS targets the critical components behind AI's exponential growth. Capture potential returns from this transformative technology sector.

Raul Miller 的头像

Raul Miller1 年前

@stephenbalaban @LambdaAPI If AI can get good enough to provide reliable, readable transcripts of arbitrary video and podcasts, I think I could live with that.

Saurabh dhuliya 的头像

Saurabh dhuliya1 年前

@garrytan @stephenbalaban @LambdaAPI If AI could ask smart questions by itself, then maybe we wouldn’t need to code so much — we could just talk to it and let it guide the process

Ivan Landabaso 的头像

Ivan Landabaso1 年前

@stephenbalaban @LambdaAPI yes, but also

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"In the future, you won't need any software at all. The neural network will completely replace it." - stephen balaban, co-founder of Lambda "Here's the idea: instead of generating a program, just go to ChatGPT and say, 'Hi, please behave like a calculator or a spreadsheet.'" "'Generate an ASCII user interface for me. And I want you to essentially just respond, implement the logic of that program in your mind.'" "This is what I call neural software. Normal software is really brittle. 'Neural software' can't have bugs, only misunderstandings." "Large language models will be the software you interact with." From Stephen's appearance on the show in May.

"In the future, you won't need any software at all. The neural network will completely replace it." - stephen balaban, co-founder of Lambda "Here's the idea: instead of generating a program, just go to ChatGPT and say, 'Hi, please behave like a calculator or a spreadsheet.'" "'Generate an ASCII user interface for me. And I want you to essentially just respond, implement the logic of that program in your mind.'" "This is what I call neural software. Normal software is really brittle. 'Neural software' can't have bugs, only misunderstandings." "Large language models will be the software you interact with." From Stephen's appearance on the show in May.

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We asked Joshua Meier (Co-Founder Chai Discovery) about the future of AI in biotechnology. "We have scientists working for years trying to enable a certain class of drug program." "If we can use machine learning to jump to potential (drug) solutions, that could really push up the bar." "Everyone has to be an AI company now to compete. What’s that going to look like in biotech if you don't have access to a technology like this?"

We asked Joshua Meier (Co-Founder Chai Discovery) about the future of AI in biotechnology. "We have scientists working for years trying to enable a certain class of drug program." "If we can use machine learning to jump to potential (drug) solutions, that could really push up the bar." "Everyone has to be an AI company now to compete. What’s that going to look like in biotech if you don't have access to a technology like this?"

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44,460 次观看 • 1 年前

We asked Alex Blania (CEO of World) about AI taking over the internet. "A big trigger point will be once you have an open-source, very competent agent." "That's where things will get exponential. 90%+ of all activity on the internet will be AI-generated after." "Until now, we trusted everything we see on the internet by default. That will completely flip." "It's going to be a profound shift."

We asked Alex Blania (CEO of World) about AI taking over the internet. "A big trigger point will be once you have an open-source, very competent agent." "That's where things will get exponential. 90%+ of all activity on the internet will be AI-generated after." "Until now, we trusted everything we see on the internet by default. That will completely flip." "It's going to be a profound shift."

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ChinaTalk's Jordan Schneider takes the other side of Chamath's thesis that Taiwan will lose its strategic importance in 18 months: "The percentage of chips that are going to be manufactured in Taiwan 18 months from now is still going to be 85-90%." "If that's the only thing you care about, you will still have a global economic catastrophe if the lights go off in Taiwan in 2028." "Why should you care about Taiwan besides chips? I mean, it's a democracy. People deserve to have self-determination." "From a geostrategic perspective, there's also this concept of the first island chain. It makes the broader Pacific architecture that America has built over the past 75 years in Asia a lot more tenuous if all the sudden the anchor to both Southeast Asia as well as North Asia becomes a PLA base." "It's not all about technology. There are other risks, incentives, institutional dynamics, and historical dynamics at play." "And there are a whole lot of downsides to starting something that you don't know how is going to end. Which is a lesson that Xi has gotten to relearn from Putin over the past 5 years."

ChinaTalk's Jordan Schneider takes the other side of Chamath's thesis that Taiwan will lose its strategic importance in 18 months: "The percentage of chips that are going to be manufactured in Taiwan 18 months from now is still going to be 85-90%." "If that's the only thing you care about, you will still have a global economic catastrophe if the lights go off in Taiwan in 2028." "Why should you care about Taiwan besides chips? I mean, it's a democracy. People deserve to have self-determination." "From a geostrategic perspective, there's also this concept of the first island chain. It makes the broader Pacific architecture that America has built over the past 75 years in Asia a lot more tenuous if all the sudden the anchor to both Southeast Asia as well as North Asia becomes a PLA base." "It's not all about technology. There are other risks, incentives, institutional dynamics, and historical dynamics at play." "And there are a whole lot of downsides to starting something that you don't know how is going to end. Which is a lesson that Xi has gotten to relearn from Putin over the past 5 years."

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We asked nico (Co-Founder of Fundamental) about hyperscaler competition and principles in AI development. "I think they would if they could (copy Shortcut)." “Even if you made an effort to copy me, you'd have to believe the things I believe in wholeheartedly.” "I think most of the people at frontier labs don't care about excel or they think that we're going to an input/output model anyway." “I think there's like a bajillion dollars to make in between those two states...”

We asked nico (Co-Founder of Fundamental) about hyperscaler competition and principles in AI development. "I think they would if they could (copy Shortcut)." “Even if you made an effort to copy me, you'd have to believe the things I believe in wholeheartedly.” "I think most of the people at frontier labs don't care about excel or they think that we're going to an input/output model anyway." “I think there's like a bajillion dollars to make in between those two states...”

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17,165 次观看 • 1 年前

"AI has become a symbol for a technology revolution that people know is changing everything about their way of life and the economy." - Ro Khanna on TBPN today "They feel like they don't have control, that they don't have a full say in what that's going to mean." "I don't think we can be oblivious to peoples' concerns about keeping jobs, and keeping social cohesion, and making sure their kids are going to have a good economic future."

"AI has become a symbol for a technology revolution that people know is changing everything about their way of life and the economy." - Ro Khanna on TBPN today "They feel like they don't have control, that they don't have a full say in what that's going to mean." "I don't think we can be oblivious to peoples' concerns about keeping jobs, and keeping social cohesion, and making sure their kids are going to have a good economic future."

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Warren Buffett: "We feel that change is likely to work against us. We do not have great ability to predict where change is going to lead. We think we have some ability to find businesses where we don't think change is going to be very important." "We think we know, in a general way, what the soft drink industry or the shaving industry or the candy business is going to look like ten or twenty years from now." "We think Microsoft is a sensational company run by the best of managers, but we don't have any idea what that world is going to look like in ten or twenty years."

Warren Buffett: "We feel that change is likely to work against us. We do not have great ability to predict where change is going to lead. We think we have some ability to find businesses where we don't think change is going to be very important." "We think we know, in a general way, what the soft drink industry or the shaving industry or the candy business is going to look like ten or twenty years from now." "We think Microsoft is a sensational company run by the best of managers, but we don't have any idea what that world is going to look like in ten or twenty years."

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Sierra Co-Founder Bret Taylor predicts that within 3-4 years consumers will prefer businesses with AI phone agents over those that rely on traditional call centers. "If I have to call a restaurant to make a reservation, I'm going to a different place. If you don't have OpenTable or Resy, I'm out." "I think we're going to get to the point where people demand an AI because they're not going to want to wait on hold. We're not 100% there and we're just paying down the debt of bad tech that we've had for the past 10 years. But I'm hopeful that in three or four years, this will be the norm." "The problem was we had 10 to 15 years of bots that were really bad. If you were talking to an AI more than three years ago, it sucked. Now you can talk to an AI, and it's conversational, it's multilingual, it has access to systems. The AI agents of today are like the horse and carriage versus a flying car." From his appearance on the show earlier this month.

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We asked rahul about the global reach of ChatGPT and the emphasis on personality in AI models. "When you want to get to the one to like the remaining 90% of the users, do you want a model that thinks for longer? You want more personality?" "They definitely leaned in on personality, which I think is interesting." "It's kind of different than a (social media) feed in some ways because you have this person you talk to. It's like a relationship and then it just switches up on how it talks to you."

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Big warning from Apollo Pres Jim Zelter "going to get more secular distress than cyclical distress". "I think you're going to get more secular distress than cyclical distress. That's very important. When we think about secular distress, I think the development of AI will change broad business models. We've talked a lot about healthcare technology.... about the outsourcing businesses... about software, enterprise software. The AI impact can have dramatic impact on those business models. And typically, when you go back in the underwriting memo, you think about your base case and the downside being down 5, 10, 15%. When you have secular dislocation, you've missed the downside by multiples. And that's what you're probably going to have" Great interview Lisa Abramowicz annmarie hordern #oott

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"We're careening towards a brick wall. The end of a supercycle is here." - Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin "The start of the next supercycle is likely... going to look like moving the economy onto decentralized rails." "AI is going to supercharge all aspects of science, and we're going to be living in a world that is indescribable at this point by 20 years from now." "I'm an optimist and an idealist, and I think even though we're moving through incredibly difficult times... that's kind of necessary because things are so broken that they have to kind of fall apart, kind of collapse, in order to make way for better systems."

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We asked Favorite Daughter co-founder Sara Foster if they're thinking about using AI. "We will embrace the right AI in certain [situations]," she said. "It's so tempting, because at the end of the day, your customers' trust in you, your customers' loyalty to you, it's all you have." "We've wrestled with all the ways to spend a little bit less. But it's tough." "At the end of the day, none of this matters if the product is not good. First and foremost, that is our focus."

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We asked David Hsu (founder of Retool) about new AI use cases. "The US has invested $1-1.5T into AI, but revenue is only $20-30B. That's a crappy 3% ROI." "My guess is 80% of that revenue is ChatGPT + cloud. But chat is pretty limited, is it going to grow 30x from where we are now?" "Can we figure out some LLM uses cases beyond just chat? What we think is missing is leveraging LLMs to automate labor." "What we're here to really solve is, can we actually allow LLMs to do things in your business (like approving orders or plans). The next frontier for AI is AI that actually does things." "I think we're almost there. That's what we are working on."

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"Enterprise makes a lot of sense until everyone does enterprise." Brian Chesky says we're going to see a massive revolution from enterprise to consumer AI in the next two years: "I saw a tweet recently that like 60 new neolabs are being formed. I've met a number of these researchers. A lot of them are interested in doing the same things." "Everyone's saying that consumer's hard. But you know what's also hard? Competing with 10 other companies in enterprise doing your idea too. That's also hard." "We're about to enter this new era where suddenly going beyond text is possible. I think you're going to even be able to see real-time AI-generated interfaces in the next year or two." "My prediction is, this has been the era of enterprise. Even [with] ChatGPT's breakout success, I would predict that most of their revenue is going to be going to Codex. And I think in the next two years, you're going to see a massive revolution in consumer." "We're going to try to do our part. I'm not sure Airbnb will be the company to blaze the trail. But I think someone has to. In another era, it would have been Apple. The Steve Jobs-era Apple would have done that."

"Enterprise makes a lot of sense until everyone does enterprise." Brian Chesky says we're going to see a massive revolution from enterprise to consumer AI in the next two years: "I saw a tweet recently that like 60 new neolabs are being formed. I've met a number of these researchers. A lot of them are interested in doing the same things." "Everyone's saying that consumer's hard. But you know what's also hard? Competing with 10 other companies in enterprise doing your idea too. That's also hard." "We're about to enter this new era where suddenly going beyond text is possible. I think you're going to even be able to see real-time AI-generated interfaces in the next year or two." "My prediction is, this has been the era of enterprise. Even [with] ChatGPT's breakout success, I would predict that most of their revenue is going to be going to Codex. And I think in the next two years, you're going to see a massive revolution in consumer." "We're going to try to do our part. I'm not sure Airbnb will be the company to blaze the trail. But I think someone has to. In another era, it would have been Apple. The Steve Jobs-era Apple would have done that."

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24,882 次观看 • 3 个月前