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We often hear that machine learning models "learn patterns in data". But what does that actually look like in geometry? If you dropped a little elastic mesh into a cloud of points and let it learn, how would it fold itself to match the shape of the data? In...

139,562 次观看 • 6 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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The Machine That Learns The Law Behind The Data A very very interesting US Patent US10963540B2 - Physics Informed Learning Machine describes a learning system that does not begin with data alone. It begins with a physical model, usually written as a differential equation (or PDE) dx/dt = f(x,t) A normal Machine Learning model sees scattered data and tries to fit it. A physics-informed learning machine starts with a law. Then it treats the data as evidence that updates what the model believes about the physical system. For this application, I use the patent idea on NASA C-MAPSS Turbofan engine data. The machine watches multivariate telemetry from a degrading engine and infers a hidden health state that is not measured directly. From that posterior belief, it estimates the engine’s remaining useful life. In the main 3D scene, the engine lifetime is turned into a tunnel. The spiral ribbons are real sensor channels evolving over cycle-time. The glowing core is the inferred health state. The surrounding cloud is uncertainty. The orange wall ahead is the predicted failure horizon. So the big picture is: sensor evidence comes in, posterior belief tightens, and the machine moves from uncertainty toward a concrete failure prediction. The inset posteriors make that explicit. The health posterior shows where the model believes the hidden engine condition sits at the current moment, and how sharply it believes it. The RUL posterior shows the same idea for remaining life... early on it is broad, later it shifts left and narrows as the machine becomes more certain about how close failure is. This idea is not limited to engines. The same idea can apply to data centers, CPUs, GPUs, cooling systems, power grids, robotics, batteries, and any machine that produces telemetry while obeying physical constraints. In an age where machine learning runs on massive hardware infrastructure, this kind of model matters: it can turn noisy sensor streams into early warnings before expensive systems fail.

Mathelirium

17,289 次观看 • 1 个月前

New PNAS paper. Historical GDP per capita data is scarce, but data on the places of birth, death, and occupations of famous individuals is abundant. In this paper we estimate the historical GDP per capita of hundreds of regions in Europe and North America using a machine learning model that leveraged data on about 500k famous biographies. Our estimates more-or-less quadruple the availability of historical GDP per capita estimates for the last 700 years. So why use biographies to augment historical GDP per capita data? Biographical data contains information about people who might have contributed directly to economic growth, like James Watt, or that were attracted to wealthy places looking for patrons, like Michelangelo. So we--mainly Philipp (Philipp Koch)--used this data to construct hundreds of features describing each European region. Then, we trained a machine learning model to find the features that explained most of the variance in a cross-validation test, where we split regions multiple times into a training set and a test set. On average, the model explained about 90% of the variance in GDP per capita of the regions it had not seen during training. But we wanted to go further, and Philipp really went to town by looking at different ways to validate our estimates. We found our estimates correlate positively with historical measures of wellbeing, church building activity, urbanization, and body height. We also used these measures to reproduce the basic Atlantic trade result of Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robison and to explore the economic consequences of the famous Lisbon earthquake of 1755. But what I personally loved most about this project, other than working with Philipp Koch and V, is that it shows that we can use machine learning methods not only to explore the future, but the past. There is a bright and growing future in the use of machine learning for economic history. Hope you enjoy the paper and the data. You can find links to the paper and a data exploration tool in the first comment.

César A. Hidalgo

54,324 次观看 • 1 年前

I don’t know if we live in a Matrix, but I know for sure that robots will spend most of their lives in simulation. Let machines train machines. I’m excited to introduce DexMimicGen, a massive-scale synthetic data generator that enables a humanoid robot to learn complex skills from only a handful of human demonstrations. Yes, as few as 5! DexMimicGen addresses the biggest pain point in robotics: where do we get data? Unlike with LLMs, where vast amounts of texts are readily available, you cannot simply download motor control signals from the internet. So researchers teleoperate the robots to collect motion data via XR headsets. They have to repeat the same skill over and over and over again, because neural nets are data hungry. This is a very slow and uncomfortable process. At NVIDIA, we believe the majority of high-quality tokens for robot foundation models will come from simulation. What DexMimicGen does is to trade GPU compute time for human time. It takes one motion trajectory from human, and multiplies into 1000s of new trajectories. A robot brain trained on this augmented dataset will generalize far better in the real world. Think of DexMimicGen as a learning signal amplifier. It maps a small dataset to a large (de facto infinite) dataset, using physics simulation in the loop. In this way, we free humans from babysitting the bots all day. The future of robot data is generative. The future of the entire robot learning pipeline will also be generative. 🧵

Jim Fan

165,215 次观看 • 1 年前

The most interesting part for me is where Andrej Karpathy describes why LLMs aren't able to learn like humans. As you would expect, he comes up with a wonderfully evocative phrase to describe RL: “sucking supervision bits through a straw.” A single end reward gets broadcast across every token in a successful trajectory, upweighting even wrong or irrelevant turns that lead to the right answer. > “Humans don't use reinforcement learning, as I've said before. I think they do something different. Reinforcement learning is a lot worse than the average person thinks. Reinforcement learning is terrible. It just so happens that everything that we had before is much worse.” So what do humans do instead? > “The book I’m reading is a set of prompts for me to do synthetic data generation. It's by manipulating that information that you actually gain that knowledge. We have no equivalent of that with LLMs; they don't really do that.” > “I'd love to see during pretraining some kind of a stage where the model thinks through the material and tries to reconcile it with what it already knows. There's no equivalent of any of this. This is all research.” Why can’t we just add this training to LLMs today? > “There are very subtle, hard to understand reasons why it's not trivial. If I just give synthetic generation of the model thinking about a book, you look at it and you're like, 'This looks great. Why can't I train on it?' You could try, but the model will actually get much worse if you continue trying.” > “Say we have a chapter of a book and I ask an LLM to think about it. It will give you something that looks very reasonable. But if I ask it 10 times, you'll notice that all of them are the same.” > “You're not getting the richness and the diversity and the entropy from these models as you would get from humans. How do you get synthetic data generation to work despite the collapse and while maintaining the entropy? It is a research problem.” How do humans get around model collapse? > “These analogies are surprisingly good. Humans collapse during the course of their lives. Children haven't overfit yet. They will say stuff that will shock you. Because they're not yet collapsed. But we [adults] are collapsed. We end up revisiting the same thoughts, we end up saying more and more of the same stuff, the learning rates go down, the collapse continues to get worse, and then everything deteriorates.” In fact, there’s an interesting paper arguing that dreaming evolved to assist generalization, and resist overfitting to daily learning - look up The Overfitted Brain by Erik Hoel. I asked Karpathy: Isn’t it interesting that humans learn best at a part of their lives (childhood) whose actual details they completely forget, adults still learn really well but have terrible memory about the particulars of the things they read or watch, and LLMs can memorize arbitrary details about text that no human could but are currently pretty bad at generalization? > “[Fallible human memory] is a feature, not a bug, because it forces you to only learn the generalizable components. LLMs are distracted by all the memory that they have of the pre-trained documents. That's why when I talk about the cognitive core, I actually want to remove the memory. I'd love to have them have less memory so that they have to look things up and they only maintain the algorithms for thought, and the idea of an experiment, and all this cognitive glue for acting.”

Dwarkesh Patel

1,049,820 次观看 • 7 个月前

We just launched a major new Data Engineering Professional Certificate on Coursera! Data underlies all modern AI systems, and engineers who know how to build systems to store and serve it are in high demand. If you're interested in learning this skill, please check out this 4-course sequence, which is designed to make you job-ready to be a Data Engineer. This is a new specialization taught by Joe Reis, the co-author of the best-selling book “Fundamentals of Data Engineering," in collaboration with AWS. (Disclosure, I serve on Amazon's board.) For many AI systems, data engineering is 80% of the work, and modeling is 20%. But people’s attention on these two topics is often flipped. This makes the job of the data engineer particularly important. In this professional certificate, you'll learn foundational data engineering skills while implementing modern data architectures using open-source tools: - Learn the key steps of the data lifecycle, to generate, ingest, store, transform, and serve data. - Learn to align with organizational goals to design the data pipeline right for your business' needs. - Understand how to make necessary trade-offs between speed, scalability, security, and cost. Joe has distilled into this specialization decades of experience helping startups and large companies with data infrastructure. He is also joined by 17 other industry leaders in the data field, who will help you learn in-demand skills for the growing field of data engineering. Please sign up here:

Andrew Ng

118,937 次观看 • 1 年前