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We show that best-of-N (BoN) is a much better baseline for diffusion test-time scaling when done right. Our core premise is that NFEs provide a false sense of efficiency by ignoring several underlying factors, such as verifier costs. We then introduce Flash-BoN, which encourages broader exploration of samples than...

23,768 次观看 • 3 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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.Naval: Every human is a lottery ticket bet on the future of the species. One of the things that you really learn when you read David Deutsch’s theories and you authenticate them for yourself is you realize humans are universal explainers. That means everything that we know in the universe follows the laws of physics, and there’s no reason to believe otherwise. If you think otherwise, then please present your better theory that explains the world. If you can’t do that, then you have to go with the laws of physics. Well, the laws of physics are completely computable. They can fit inside a Turing machine or computer, and a computer can simulate the laws of physics with arbitrary accuracy, limited only by the specific power of that computer. If you increase the power of that computer, you can simulate them more accurately. So humans already simulate—in our minds we simulate—and through our computers we simulate the weather, we simulate quasars, we even simulate human systems. We simulate the economy. We simulate all kinds of things. So anything that can be understood, we can understand in our minds. This is something the AGI people get wrong when they talk about superintelligence. There is nothing out there that can understand something fundamentally that we can’t understand. It might be faster at it, it might have more compute, it might have more memory, but there’s no concept that it can understand that we can’t ourselves understand. So we are maximal universal explainers. That means every human is capable of unbounded creativity. Anyone could be the next Einstein or Fermi or Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos or Jonas Salk or whatever. So we can create anything. And if we can create anything, every human is a lottery ticket bet on the future of the species.

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Sundar Pichai reveals Google can already see Gemini 5 will be much better than Argon, and cites durable demand signals with long-term contracts backing its compute buildout PICHAI: “The strength and durability of the demand signals we are seeing...to do something like this, you need to be confident at multiple levels. “One is that we are fortunate to have early signals from such a diversified opportunity set, all the way from consumer to enterprise. We are seeing robust demand signals.” HEATH: “You probably have more signal than any company on Earth, actually.” PICHAI: “I haven’t thought about it that way, but you could arguably make a case for it. “You have those robust demand signals. We also have the demand signal from Google itself, which is a cutting-edge enterprise in terms of how we are using and adopting AI. “You’re also seeing the capability frontier. Independently of the demand signals, you’re able to objectively assess how that frontier is progressing: how that curve looks like, the scaling laws, how our new models are doing compared with our old models, the complexity of the tasks we are able to tackle, and our internal evaluations and benchmarks. You’re getting a firsthand sense of it. “You’re also getting a sense of the breakthroughs coming from research, which gives you a sense of whether Gemini 5 will be much better than where Argon is. The answer is yes. “You’re getting all those confidence signals across that layer of the stack. We also have durable, long-term contracts with committed revenue that we are signing. It’s not just hope. You’re planning to a book of business as well.”

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