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We're having a massive moment with Tesla's FSD progress right now, yet so few people have any idea that it's even happening. • FSD 12 was a huge step change forward • 1.8 million Teslas got a free 30 day FSD trial • Tesla's fleet is now doing 1... billion FSD miles every 2-3 months (vs 1 billion every 3 years) • FSD (Supervised) v12.4 will get rid of the steering wheel nag (coming in 1-2 weeks) • Tesla is finally no longer compute constrained, allowing them to improve FSD MUCH quicker. The company's compute capacity will increase at least 6x this year. • Preliminary approval to launch FSD (Supervised) in China. • Swedish Transport Administration Advisor praises Tesla's FSD "smoothness and natural driving" after being given a test ride on German roads 2 weeks ago. Buckle up. These are exciting times.show more

Sawyer Merritt

1,104,699 subscribers

1,412,608 views • 2 years ago •via X (Twitter)

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10 Comments

Salomondrin 🤖2 years ago

Our car drove us from San Diego to Newport Beach at midnight, and needed zero interventions. Even my wife, who hates the idea of it, was blown away by it. This is some crazy futuristic shizzle

Sawyer Merritt2 years ago

We'll know Tesla has reached robotaxi level when Belen loves the idea of it 😂

Nic Cruz Patane2 years ago

I’m at the point now where I feel unsafe not having FSD activated. It’s an extra set of eyes guiding you through everything - it’s amazing.

Brandon Smith2 years ago

I love $TSLA, the Tesla team, and Elon. Thanks for working so hard for this moment everyone, especially with the torrent of blind hatred towards each of you by the naysayers/doubters/critics. Just remember, no one remembers the critics - but they will remember you.

Peter de Vietien2 years ago

Tesla will add another 800% by year end. We’re facing a real world AI tsunami.

Kevin Thobias2 years ago

A moment of silence for @GerberKawasaki for meticulously & skillfully selling at the bottom.

Lior2 years ago

Sawyer, do you know when people like myself with v11.1 2024.8.9 software version will get to experience Tesla FSD 12 free trial?

fengmiao2 years ago

"Tesla's fleet is now doing 1 billion FSD miles every 2-3 months (vs 1 billion every 3 years)" what's the sources plz?

Sawyer Merritt2 years ago

Tesla.

Jackie2 years ago

Am so thankful because people suck at driving!

Related Videos

Tesla’s global fleet has now crossed 12 billion cumulative miles driven on FSD (Supervised) Tesla passed 10 billion miles in early May. Since then, owners have added another 2 billion miles in roughly just 75 days That is around: • 26 million miles per day • 1 billion miles every ~38 days • Nearly 1,000 miles every three seconds The scale continues to grow: • More markets are approving FSD (Supervised) • European customers are beginning to contribute meaningful mileage • Tesla’s global fleet continues to expand • Every mile gives Tesla greater exposure to real-world roads and driving conditions Tesla's latest safety reports vehicles using FSD (Supervised) experience: • 7x fewer major collisions • 7x fewer minor collisions • 5x fewer non-highway collisions Autonomy is scaling at an extraordinary pace Tesla’s real-world fleet advantage is becoming increasingly difficult for competitors to match

Tesla’s global fleet has now crossed 12 billion cumulative miles driven on FSD (Supervised) Tesla passed 10 billion miles in early May. Since then, owners have added another 2 billion miles in roughly just 75 days That is around: • 26 million miles per day • 1 billion miles every ~38 days • Nearly 1,000 miles every three seconds The scale continues to grow: • More markets are approving FSD (Supervised) • European customers are beginning to contribute meaningful mileage • Tesla’s global fleet continues to expand • Every mile gives Tesla greater exposure to real-world roads and driving conditions Tesla's latest safety reports vehicles using FSD (Supervised) experience: • 7x fewer major collisions • 7x fewer minor collisions • 5x fewer non-highway collisions Autonomy is scaling at an extraordinary pace Tesla’s real-world fleet advantage is becoming increasingly difficult for competitors to match

X Freeze

13,257 views • 21 days ago

$TSLA 🇰🇷 Tesla's 'FSD Moment' is happening in Korea. The Korean media began to report on Tesla's introduction of FSD. Among them, the video I filmed was also introduced in the news, and I made an English subtitle because I thought it would be good for more people to see it. So far, FSD is only available in Model S/X vehicles, but this alone seems to have a significant impact in Korea. The Korean market will change dramatically next year after the regulations are eased so that FSD can also be used for Model 3/Y vehicles.

$TSLA 🇰🇷 Tesla's 'FSD Moment' is happening in Korea. The Korean media began to report on Tesla's introduction of FSD. Among them, the video I filmed was also introduced in the news, and I made an English subtitle because I thought it would be good for more people to see it. So far, FSD is only available in Model S/X vehicles, but this alone seems to have a significant impact in Korea. The Korean market will change dramatically next year after the regulations are eased so that FSD can also be used for Model 3/Y vehicles.

Tsla Chan

74,496 views • 8 months ago

🇺🇸 Tesla has published new safety data for FSD Supervised, and the methodology is worth a look as much as the numbers. FSD has now covered over 12.6 billion miles, with nearly 4.9 billion of those driven in cities, where the hazards are densest. With FSD engaged, Tesla reports 7 times fewer major collisions, 7 times fewer minor collisions, and 5 times fewer off-highway collisions. What makes that interesting is how strictly the company counts against itself. If FSD was active at any point in the 5 seconds before a crash, it goes down as an FSD collision. That includes cases where the driver grabbed the wheel back or the system handed control over right before impact. Tesla also assigns no fault at all. If another car runs a red light and hits a Tesla on FSD, it still counts against FSD. Collisions are defined by federal standard rather than company preference, using airbag deployment for major crashes and a velocity change of 8 km/h within 150 milliseconds for minor ones. The data pipeline behind it is enormous. In one quarter alone, Tesla pulled 2.5 billion telemetry packages from the fleet. Most safety claims in this industry rest on a company's word. This one rests on a fleet that reports on itself, including when it fails. Source: Tesla / Writer: Julie

🇺🇸 Tesla has published new safety data for FSD Supervised, and the methodology is worth a look as much as the numbers. FSD has now covered over 12.6 billion miles, with nearly 4.9 billion of those driven in cities, where the hazards are densest. With FSD engaged, Tesla reports 7 times fewer major collisions, 7 times fewer minor collisions, and 5 times fewer off-highway collisions. What makes that interesting is how strictly the company counts against itself. If FSD was active at any point in the 5 seconds before a crash, it goes down as an FSD collision. That includes cases where the driver grabbed the wheel back or the system handed control over right before impact. Tesla also assigns no fault at all. If another car runs a red light and hits a Tesla on FSD, it still counts against FSD. Collisions are defined by federal standard rather than company preference, using airbag deployment for major crashes and a velocity change of 8 km/h within 150 milliseconds for minor ones. The data pipeline behind it is enormous. In one quarter alone, Tesla pulled 2.5 billion telemetry packages from the fleet. Most safety claims in this industry rest on a company's word. This one rests on a fleet that reports on itself, including when it fails. Source: Tesla / Writer: Julie

Mario Nawfal

51,232 views • 15 days ago

🇺🇸 Elon says Tesla robotaxis will be widespread across the U.S. by the end of this year, up from 3 cities in Texas where they're already running with no safety monitors and no one behind the wheel. In April he said a dozen states or more. Now he's saying nationwide. The timeline is tightening. Tesla's FSD already has 1.3 million subscribers at $99 a month. FSD approval in China is pending, but when it comes through, the timeline Elon is already promising could move even faster. Source: Barron's

🇺🇸 Elon says Tesla robotaxis will be widespread across the U.S. by the end of this year, up from 3 cities in Texas where they're already running with no safety monitors and no one behind the wheel. In April he said a dozen states or more. Now he's saying nationwide. The timeline is tightening. Tesla's FSD already has 1.3 million subscribers at $99 a month. FSD approval in China is pending, but when it comes through, the timeline Elon is already promising could move even faster. Source: Barron's

Mario Nawfal

361,742 views • 2 months ago

It's wild that people post videos of themselves blatantly breaking the law like this. Look, obviously, the idea of being able to do something else, like work, while driving is extremely appealing, but you just can't do it like that. Tesla FSD v14 is extremely impressive, but the best data we have right now points to a critical intervention every ~2,000 miles on average. Human drivers crash about every ~400,000 miles on average. You will hurt yourself, or God forbid, someone else, if you keep doing this, as you won't be able to intervene properly. I know some don't believe because they blindly believe Tesla's claim that "FSD is 10x safer than human drivers", but that's the most misleading claim ever. First off, the data is cherry-picked. I do believe that driving on FSD is safer than driving without, but closer to a factor 3x based on the best, not-Tesla-massaged, data. But more importantly, that's 3x safer than FSD plus human. Not just FSD. It is safer because it is supervised by a human paying attention and correcting the system when needed. If you use it like this guy, you are not safer. Period.

It's wild that people post videos of themselves blatantly breaking the law like this. Look, obviously, the idea of being able to do something else, like work, while driving is extremely appealing, but you just can't do it like that. Tesla FSD v14 is extremely impressive, but the best data we have right now points to a critical intervention every ~2,000 miles on average. Human drivers crash about every ~400,000 miles on average. You will hurt yourself, or God forbid, someone else, if you keep doing this, as you won't be able to intervene properly. I know some don't believe because they blindly believe Tesla's claim that "FSD is 10x safer than human drivers", but that's the most misleading claim ever. First off, the data is cherry-picked. I do believe that driving on FSD is safer than driving without, but closer to a factor 3x based on the best, not-Tesla-massaged, data. But more importantly, that's 3x safer than FSD plus human. Not just FSD. It is safer because it is supervised by a human paying attention and correcting the system when needed. If you use it like this guy, you are not safer. Period.

Fred Lambert

12,092 views • 1 month ago

Bro… it’s 2026 and you’re still driving manually? I just press a button, and I don’t even remember how I got to my destination. If it was legal to do so, I’d be 100% comfortable closing my eyes and taking a nap the entire drive. It’s just the honest truth, I’m not hyping anything. Tesla FSD is really that good now. Tesla FSD has now driven more than 8 billion real world miles, including more than 3 billion city miles. In Tesla’s latest safety data, FSD logged about 1 major collision every 5.3 million miles, which Tesla says is about 7x fewer major collisions than the U.S. average. On top of this, Tesla FSD delivers 7x fewer minor collisions and 5x fewer off-highway collisions than the average. It’s significantly safer than anything out there. This AI system is learning from millions of Teslas out in the real world, not from geofenced areas, like literally anywhere a Tesla can drive. Tesla’s vehicles use 360 degree camera visibility, over-the-air updates, and has a neural net that keeps making the system smarter, safer, and better over time, for all Teslas. The FSD experience is so good now that manually driving already feels like the distant past. And once you’ve lived with what so many Tesla owners get to experience every day, going back to any other car feels almost impossible.

Bro… it’s 2026 and you’re still driving manually? I just press a button, and I don’t even remember how I got to my destination. If it was legal to do so, I’d be 100% comfortable closing my eyes and taking a nap the entire drive. It’s just the honest truth, I’m not hyping anything. Tesla FSD is really that good now. Tesla FSD has now driven more than 8 billion real world miles, including more than 3 billion city miles. In Tesla’s latest safety data, FSD logged about 1 major collision every 5.3 million miles, which Tesla says is about 7x fewer major collisions than the U.S. average. On top of this, Tesla FSD delivers 7x fewer minor collisions and 5x fewer off-highway collisions than the average. It’s significantly safer than anything out there. This AI system is learning from millions of Teslas out in the real world, not from geofenced areas, like literally anywhere a Tesla can drive. Tesla’s vehicles use 360 degree camera visibility, over-the-air updates, and has a neural net that keeps making the system smarter, safer, and better over time, for all Teslas. The FSD experience is so good now that manually driving already feels like the distant past. And once you’ve lived with what so many Tesla owners get to experience every day, going back to any other car feels almost impossible.

Teslaconomics

16,734 views • 4 months ago

🚨🇩🇰 TESLA FSD (SUPERVISED) COMING TO DENMARK? FULL SELF-DRIVING EUROPE EDITION TEASED FOR 2026 Tesla just dropped a major teaser in Denmark: FSD (Supervised) could officially launch in the country by early 2026, and yes, that would make it one of the first EU nations to get a taste of Elon’s autonomy dream. The email, sent to Danish Tesla owners, invites them to ride-alongs with Tesla Advisors, offering a guided sneak peek at what the tech will look like on European roads. “A Tesla Advisor will guide you through the ride and give you an exclusive look at what to expect when it rolls out in early 2026.” So it’s still 2 years away, it’s not unsupervised, and the EU’s red tape could throw a wrench in all of this, but despite this, Tesla’s clearly laying the groundwork now. If you think U.S. regulators were tough, just wait until European safety boards start digging into FSD decision-making on cobblestone streets in the snow. Still, if it actually happens, it’ll be a huge milestone: FSD goes multilingual, metric, and probably gets used in three languages. Source: Sawyer Merritt, Tesla

🚨🇩🇰 TESLA FSD (SUPERVISED) COMING TO DENMARK? FULL SELF-DRIVING EUROPE EDITION TEASED FOR 2026 Tesla just dropped a major teaser in Denmark: FSD (Supervised) could officially launch in the country by early 2026, and yes, that would make it one of the first EU nations to get a taste of Elon’s autonomy dream. The email, sent to Danish Tesla owners, invites them to ride-alongs with Tesla Advisors, offering a guided sneak peek at what the tech will look like on European roads. “A Tesla Advisor will guide you through the ride and give you an exclusive look at what to expect when it rolls out in early 2026.” So it’s still 2 years away, it’s not unsupervised, and the EU’s red tape could throw a wrench in all of this, but despite this, Tesla’s clearly laying the groundwork now. If you think U.S. regulators were tough, just wait until European safety boards start digging into FSD decision-making on cobblestone streets in the snow. Still, if it actually happens, it’ll be a huge milestone: FSD goes multilingual, metric, and probably gets used in three languages. Source: Sawyer Merritt, Tesla

Mario Nawfal

24,503 views • 7 months ago

As a Brit, we don't have Tesla FSD (Full Self Driving) yet. So as part of the family holiday, I hired a Cybertruck for 3 weeks to do a bit of a California road trip to see if FSD really is as good as some of the YouTube videos I've seen. We've done over 1000 miles in it so far and WOW... Put some rough clips together to show our Day 1 using it etc. No exaggeration, it drove from Venice Beach in LA all the way to Monterey via Big Sur and then to Lake Tahoe with zero interventions. And loads of little trips as well. It's just incredible. I really cannot wait for FSD to be allowed in the UK. The moment it is likely, I'm buying a brand new Tesla just for FSD. It's really THAT good...

siamkidd

145,691 views • 17 days ago

NEWS: Elon Musk says FSD Unsupervised is "pretty much solved at this point" and that Tesla will be launching Robotaxis with no safety monitors in about 3 weeks in Austin, Texas. He also teased a new FSD model is coming in about 1-2 months. "We're just going through validation right now. That (no safety monitors) will be done with quite a small model. There's a model that's an order of magnitude larger that will be deployed in January or February 2026. We're gonna add a lot of reasoning and RL. To get to serious scale Tesla will probably need to build a giant chip fab. To have a few hundred gigawatts of AI chips per year, I don't see that capability coming online fast enough, so we will probably have to build a fab."

NEWS: Elon Musk says FSD Unsupervised is "pretty much solved at this point" and that Tesla will be launching Robotaxis with no safety monitors in about 3 weeks in Austin, Texas. He also teased a new FSD model is coming in about 1-2 months. "We're just going through validation right now. That (no safety monitors) will be done with quite a small model. There's a model that's an order of magnitude larger that will be deployed in January or February 2026. We're gonna add a lot of reasoning and RL. To get to serious scale Tesla will probably need to build a giant chip fab. To have a few hundred gigawatts of AI chips per year, I don't see that capability coming online fast enough, so we will probably have to build a fab."

Sawyer Merritt

1,189,335 views • 8 months ago

This couple in North Carolina just took delivery of a new Model Y after having zero knowledge about Teslas a few weeks ago. They love FSD. "The minute I got in the car, I tapped FSD. I actually haven’t driven the car myself; We test-drove the Tesla on June 27th, ordered a Model Y on June 29th, and drove away on July 11! Exactly 2 weeks... from NO knowledge to purchase! We've had it a week now, and it gets better and better! We are so glad we purchased this vehicle!" Their full 41 minute video of picking it up, driving it around and more is linked below:

This couple in North Carolina just took delivery of a new Model Y after having zero knowledge about Teslas a few weeks ago. They love FSD. "The minute I got in the car, I tapped FSD. I actually haven’t driven the car myself; We test-drove the Tesla on June 27th, ordered a Model Y on June 29th, and drove away on July 11! Exactly 2 weeks... from NO knowledge to purchase! We've had it a week now, and it gets better and better! We are so glad we purchased this vehicle!" Their full 41 minute video of picking it up, driving it around and more is linked below:

Sawyer Merritt

237,716 views • 17 days ago

FSD supervised in Europe: Another great video of our drive with FSD supervised in Dusseldorf, Germany yesterday. Here you can clearly see how the Tesla Model 3 stays fully in control in a busy area again. Passing two parked vehicles in the street (on our lane), seeing the second vehicle even before me, reacting to a fast biker that suddenly comes from the right side, and smoothly driving over tramrails on the left lane with no markings on the street at all. FSD is so needed in Europe, it will not only make our lives safer but also so much more relaxed. What a pleasure it was to be in this car, even when we were not driving (yet). Tesla Europe, Middle East & Africa Tesla_Calle Teslarati Whole Mars Catalog Tesla Owners Silicon Valley Maye Musk S.E. Robinson, Jr. Elon Musk TeslaGermany_ Alex

FSD supervised in Europe: Another great video of our drive with FSD supervised in Dusseldorf, Germany yesterday. Here you can clearly see how the Tesla Model 3 stays fully in control in a busy area again. Passing two parked vehicles in the street (on our lane), seeing the second vehicle even before me, reacting to a fast biker that suddenly comes from the right side, and smoothly driving over tramrails on the left lane with no markings on the street at all. FSD is so needed in Europe, it will not only make our lives safer but also so much more relaxed. What a pleasure it was to be in this car, even when we were not driving (yet). Tesla Europe, Middle East & Africa Tesla_Calle Teslarati Whole Mars Catalog Tesla Owners Silicon Valley Maye Musk S.E. Robinson, Jr. Elon Musk TeslaGermany_ Alex

Esther Rebers

44,420 views • 8 months ago

I've been using FSD in my Tesla Model X for nearly a year. Here's the Good, the Bad and the Ugly on Tesla's FSD... The Good: - FSD is bar far, the most advanced driving technology I've ever experienced in any vehicle. - I use it every day, on every drive. Why? Because it reduces my driving work substantially. It keeps the car centered in the lane, keeps an appropriate following distance, stops for red lights and stop signs, turns where I need to turn and handles 99% of my driving tasks. - I think driving with FSD is FAR safer than driving without it because it reduces the "dumb" mistakes that drivers make that cause accidents. Mistakes like being distracted and missing the fact that the light is turning red or that the car in front of you just hit the breaks, or swerving out of your lane, or forgetting an exit or a turn and trying to make a heroic move to stay on course. All of these things are handled by FSD with grace and it likely is saving countless accidents. - Long drives and road trips are a pleasure with FSD because you are not fatigued with the many thousands of micro driving tasks, such as keeping the car centered in the lane or even worrying about where you're going. The car does all of that for you (and Navigate on Autopilot also does 95% of this for road trips). - When I use FSD, I have near-0 road rage, never speed up rapidly for no good reason and I am generally a more relaxed driver. The Bad: - Sometimes FSD has Schizophrenia, sees things that aren't there, slows for no reason, is indecisive on whether to go or stop which causes it to do extreme movements of the steering wheel, breaks and accelerator. In most of these circumstances, it's not unsafe, but as the driver sitting in the driver's seat, it is quite embarrassing, especially if you have passengers in the vehicle. - There are times when FSD makes a truly unsafe mistake, misses a red light (super rare) and tries to go when it should clearly stop, or slams on the break because it thinks a car might cross paths when the car was clearly not going to. In all these instances, it's super easy to take over and correct FSD's mistake. I don't even think twice about it...I quickly take over, correct the mistake, and put it back on FSD. The Ugly: - FSD is nearly useless in parking lots. It is surprisingly bad, especially since Elon Musk introduced the "Summon" feature long before FSD was released publicly. He said "just like humans, the AI also needs to learn driving by starting in the parking lot." 5 Years later, Summon still sucks and FSD has no idea how to drive in a parking lot. - Despite the many praises that a specific release often gets on Twitter, my personal experience has been that a new release could actually be worse than the previous version. For example, when my FSD upgraded from 10.69 to 11.3, it lost its ability to get in & out of HOV lanes on the freeway (I live in Scottsdale AZ). This simple loss of functionality (which returned with 11.4) caused numerous missed exits and route delays due to my over-reliance on FSD. - FSD makes some incredibly bad choices that are unexplainable, like certain lane changes, or last-second preparation to try and make a turn from 3 lanes away. These mistakes get better and worse with each release...it's a mixed bag as to what you're going to get with an update. - Your car's FSD never ever learns or improves by user input (not without an update). So it will make the exact same mistake in the exact same location, every, single, time. That can be super annoying. Conclusion: Despite the shortcomings, FSD is a technology marvel that I prefer not to live without. I don't see myself having a primary car that doesn't have Tesla-level FSD capabilities anytime in the future. Even the basic Autopilot features of Tesla are far superior to any other vehicle I've experienced. And despite what Elon says, the rate of improvement that I have experienced in the past year will not put it on a trajectory to be ready without a backup driver anytime in the next year or two. But with a backup driver, FSD is incredible, makes driving safer and I would highly recommend it to anyone!

I've been using FSD in my Tesla Model X for nearly a year. Here's the Good, the Bad and the Ugly on Tesla's FSD... The Good: - FSD is bar far, the most advanced driving technology I've ever experienced in any vehicle. - I use it every day, on every drive. Why? Because it reduces my driving work substantially. It keeps the car centered in the lane, keeps an appropriate following distance, stops for red lights and stop signs, turns where I need to turn and handles 99% of my driving tasks. - I think driving with FSD is FAR safer than driving without it because it reduces the "dumb" mistakes that drivers make that cause accidents. Mistakes like being distracted and missing the fact that the light is turning red or that the car in front of you just hit the breaks, or swerving out of your lane, or forgetting an exit or a turn and trying to make a heroic move to stay on course. All of these things are handled by FSD with grace and it likely is saving countless accidents. - Long drives and road trips are a pleasure with FSD because you are not fatigued with the many thousands of micro driving tasks, such as keeping the car centered in the lane or even worrying about where you're going. The car does all of that for you (and Navigate on Autopilot also does 95% of this for road trips). - When I use FSD, I have near-0 road rage, never speed up rapidly for no good reason and I am generally a more relaxed driver. The Bad: - Sometimes FSD has Schizophrenia, sees things that aren't there, slows for no reason, is indecisive on whether to go or stop which causes it to do extreme movements of the steering wheel, breaks and accelerator. In most of these circumstances, it's not unsafe, but as the driver sitting in the driver's seat, it is quite embarrassing, especially if you have passengers in the vehicle. - There are times when FSD makes a truly unsafe mistake, misses a red light (super rare) and tries to go when it should clearly stop, or slams on the break because it thinks a car might cross paths when the car was clearly not going to. In all these instances, it's super easy to take over and correct FSD's mistake. I don't even think twice about it...I quickly take over, correct the mistake, and put it back on FSD. The Ugly: - FSD is nearly useless in parking lots. It is surprisingly bad, especially since Elon Musk introduced the "Summon" feature long before FSD was released publicly. He said "just like humans, the AI also needs to learn driving by starting in the parking lot." 5 Years later, Summon still sucks and FSD has no idea how to drive in a parking lot. - Despite the many praises that a specific release often gets on Twitter, my personal experience has been that a new release could actually be worse than the previous version. For example, when my FSD upgraded from 10.69 to 11.3, it lost its ability to get in & out of HOV lanes on the freeway (I live in Scottsdale AZ). This simple loss of functionality (which returned with 11.4) caused numerous missed exits and route delays due to my over-reliance on FSD. - FSD makes some incredibly bad choices that are unexplainable, like certain lane changes, or last-second preparation to try and make a turn from 3 lanes away. These mistakes get better and worse with each release...it's a mixed bag as to what you're going to get with an update. - Your car's FSD never ever learns or improves by user input (not without an update). So it will make the exact same mistake in the exact same location, every, single, time. That can be super annoying. Conclusion: Despite the shortcomings, FSD is a technology marvel that I prefer not to live without. I don't see myself having a primary car that doesn't have Tesla-level FSD capabilities anytime in the future. Even the basic Autopilot features of Tesla are far superior to any other vehicle I've experienced. And despite what Elon says, the rate of improvement that I have experienced in the past year will not put it on a trajectory to be ready without a backup driver anytime in the next year or two. But with a backup driver, FSD is incredible, makes driving safer and I would highly recommend it to anyone!

Hamid

1,528,927 views • 3 years ago

$RIVN $TSLA Now I know why Tesla influencers are mad. Rivian just put a fork in the road for FSD monopoly. First initial reaction after 30 minutes of testing Rivian Universal Hands Free. In the video below, the car is doing all the work on back roads. FYI, Universal Hands Free is not equivalent to FSD yet, but point to point coming out in 2026 should put Rivian right up there. Here is the fork in the road: 1. Claim: Everyone will license FSD from Tesla. Reality: Rivian will release point to point next year. 2. Claim: Everyone is 10 years behind Tesla in autonomous driving. Reality: Rivian is only about 1.5 years behind. 3. Claim: LiDAR is too expensive. Reality: It costs around $200. 4. Claim: Multiple sensors cause confusion and delayed decision making. Reality: With early sensor fusion, there is no confusion or added complexity. 5. Claim: Tesla is the only software defined company. Reality: Rivian licenses its software to VW for $5 billion beating Tesla to it.

$RIVN $TSLA Now I know why Tesla influencers are mad. Rivian just put a fork in the road for FSD monopoly. First initial reaction after 30 minutes of testing Rivian Universal Hands Free. In the video below, the car is doing all the work on back roads. FYI, Universal Hands Free is not equivalent to FSD yet, but point to point coming out in 2026 should put Rivian right up there. Here is the fork in the road: 1. Claim: Everyone will license FSD from Tesla. Reality: Rivian will release point to point next year. 2. Claim: Everyone is 10 years behind Tesla in autonomous driving. Reality: Rivian is only about 1.5 years behind. 3. Claim: LiDAR is too expensive. Reality: It costs around $200. 4. Claim: Multiple sensors cause confusion and delayed decision making. Reality: With early sensor fusion, there is no confusion or added complexity. 5. Claim: Tesla is the only software defined company. Reality: Rivian licenses its software to VW for $5 billion beating Tesla to it.

MoreGainzs

189,277 views • 7 months ago

RUSH HOUR TORTURE TEST W/ FSD V14.1.3! Last night I had some time to kill after my workout and decided to put FSD v14.1.3 to the test once again in rush hour. Instead of going straight home from the gym, we went to Best Buy, as well as other parts of the metro where we previously experienced repeated issues with v13. Along the way, we recognized several improvements, including proper identification and avoidance of an approaching of police vehicle which was super exciting! On top of these improvements, we also experienced several issues including: - Several episodes of brake/throttle pumping at intersections - Swerving for phantom objects on the highway - Routing issues near downtown St Paul & I-35E that resulted in missing the exit 3 times! - Autopark picking the wrong parking spot twice Even with these issues, I remain confident that v14 has more potential than v13 ever did, and I'm excited for the comfort-related improvements planned for the upcoming v14.2 release (which is just around the corner). 00:00 - Intro To First Drive 00:22 - Inconsistency - FSD Start From Park Now Works From Garage? 01:34 - Comments About Today’s Weather Conditions 01:55 - Issue - Brake / Throttle Pumping Before Unprotected Left Turn 03:19 - Issue - More Brake / Throttle Pumping 04:16 - More Commentary About Braking Improvements w/ FSD v14 05:27 - FSD Confidently Reacts To Hesitating VRU 06:20 - Destination Parking Setting Change: Street Parking 07:57 - Possible Improvement - Better Line Selection On Wider City Street 08:45 - Round 2 w/ Busy Unprotected Left Turn Onto West 7th Street 10:06 - Issue - Autopark Parks In A “No Parking” Zone 11:51 - Confirmed Improvement - Start From Park Is Leaps & Bounds Better in FSD v14 w/ Model S 12:36 - Tricky Unprotected Left Turn Is No Match For FSD v14! 13:24 - Possible Improvement - FSD v14.1.3 Respects No Turn On Red Sign! 14:32 - Confirmed Improvement - FSD v14 Reacts Faster To Navigation Changes 15:13 - Confirmed Improvement - FSD v14 Shows Improved Handling Of MN-style On Ramps 16:55 - Issue - FSD Unnecessarily Hesitates w/ Auto Lane Change On Highway 18:32 - Issue - FSD Tries To Re-route But Fails To Make Exit 18:45 - Issue - FSD Tries To Re-route For 2nd Time And Misses The Exit Again 20:35 - Smooth Braking From Highway Speed 21:27 - FSD v14.1.3 Aces First U-Turn 22:09 - FSD v14.1.3 Handles Direct Sunlight Like A Champ! 22:40 - FSD Tackles More Direct Sunlight Without Flinching! 23:26 - Confirmed Improvement - FSD Now Properly Detects & Moves Out Of The Way Of Emergency Vehicles! 24:53 - Issue - FSD Swerves For Phantom Object 25:29 - Tight Cloverleaf Onto MN-36 From I-35E North Presents No Issues For FSD v14.1.3 26:16 - FSD Once Again Tackles Intense Direct Sunlight 28:48 - Confirmed Improvement - Better Line & Speed Selection On Curvy Off Ramp 31:06 - Issue - Autopark Parks In Handicapped Parking Spot 31:26 - Commentary On Good & Bad w/ FSD v14.1.3 34:37 - Intro to Third Drive 35:19 - Commentary About Reverse Usage When Start FSD From Park Is Activated 36:10 - FSD v14.1.3 Properly Detects & Slows For Speed Bump 37:27 - FSD Handles U-Turn At Busy Intersection Near Rosedale Mall 38:19 - Driver Nag Updates w/ FSD v14.1.3 38:57 - Confirmed Improvement - Better Handling Of MN-Style On Ramps Especially When We Are The Lead Vehicle 40:43 - Possible Improvement - FSD Properly Handles I-35E South Fork! 44:34 - FSD Tackles Yet Another Tricky Unprotected Left Turn Even With Poor Visibility 47:27 - Confirmed Improvement - FSD v14 No Longer Uses Oncoming Lane Before Unprotected Left Turn 48:41 - Comment About Chill Speed Profile On City Streets 52:05 - Issue - “Driveway” Destination Park Option Not Available 53:00 - FSD Recognizes Alley Is Blocked & Re-Routes Automatically! 54:06 - Autopark Fail & Closing Thoughts If you are interested in seeing how Tesla FSD performs in the Twin Cities, please like & follow/subscribe. Tesla Referral Link:

Dan Burkland

20,098 views • 9 months ago

Whenever I tell people when you buy a Tesla, make sure you eat the cost and buy FSD outright, a majority of people always tell me “FSD is too expensive at $8,000,” without actually looking at the data and numbers behind the true value of FSD. Well, I did. Back in 2019, Elon explained the Robotaxi economics very clearly. “What would be the probable gross profit from a single Robotaxi? We think probably something on the order of $30,000 per year.” BTW, this number also came from conservative assumptions. • ~90,000 miles per year • ~50% utilization (half the miles are non-revenue) • Operating cost around $0.18 per mile (fyi, gas cars are closer to $0.60!) • Tesla takes 25-30% of the revenue • Robotaxi designed to last ~1 million miles So after costs, after Tesla’s cut, and after conservative usage, the estimate still came out to $30,000 per year from a single Robotaxi. So let me do the simple math for you. If a Robotaxi generates $30,000 per year, and you assume just 10 years of useful Robotaxi life, even though the car is going to be designed for more: 1/ $30,000 × 10 years = $300,000 Now, let’s cut that number by 50% for uncertainty, downtime, or slower rollout… I’m being conservative here. 2/ $300,000 ÷ 2 = $150,000 That means the FSD value is NOT $8,000. It’s six figures! This is why every Tesla owner should buy FSD outright right now! And is also the reason why Tesla is ending this option in February imo. You see, this is what happens when you see FSD as an income generating business, instead of just a feature. FSD is SIGNIFICANTLY undervalued. And whenever I tell people that I’m going to be the biggest Tesla Robotaxi fleet operator one day and show the world how much $ I’m making for each Robotaxi in operation, they all still laugh at me in disbelief. (I hope Elon and Tesla will let me be one of the first owners when the time comes… 🤞) But I also know that people always doubted me my whole life… until things actually became real. That’s why I’ve never seen my Tesla as just a car that depreciates like other non-Teslas. It’s the exact opposite. And one day, when these cars are driving themselves and generating $ income for me while I’m sleeping, all of the doubters will become silent. Mark my words.

Whenever I tell people when you buy a Tesla, make sure you eat the cost and buy FSD outright, a majority of people always tell me “FSD is too expensive at $8,000,” without actually looking at the data and numbers behind the true value of FSD. Well, I did. Back in 2019, Elon explained the Robotaxi economics very clearly. “What would be the probable gross profit from a single Robotaxi? We think probably something on the order of $30,000 per year.” BTW, this number also came from conservative assumptions. • ~90,000 miles per year • ~50% utilization (half the miles are non-revenue) • Operating cost around $0.18 per mile (fyi, gas cars are closer to $0.60!) • Tesla takes 25-30% of the revenue • Robotaxi designed to last ~1 million miles So after costs, after Tesla’s cut, and after conservative usage, the estimate still came out to $30,000 per year from a single Robotaxi. So let me do the simple math for you. If a Robotaxi generates $30,000 per year, and you assume just 10 years of useful Robotaxi life, even though the car is going to be designed for more: 1/ $30,000 × 10 years = $300,000 Now, let’s cut that number by 50% for uncertainty, downtime, or slower rollout… I’m being conservative here. 2/ $300,000 ÷ 2 = $150,000 That means the FSD value is NOT $8,000. It’s six figures! This is why every Tesla owner should buy FSD outright right now! And is also the reason why Tesla is ending this option in February imo. You see, this is what happens when you see FSD as an income generating business, instead of just a feature. FSD is SIGNIFICANTLY undervalued. And whenever I tell people that I’m going to be the biggest Tesla Robotaxi fleet operator one day and show the world how much $ I’m making for each Robotaxi in operation, they all still laugh at me in disbelief. (I hope Elon and Tesla will let me be one of the first owners when the time comes… 🤞) But I also know that people always doubted me my whole life… until things actually became real. That’s why I’ve never seen my Tesla as just a car that depreciates like other non-Teslas. It’s the exact opposite. And one day, when these cars are driving themselves and generating $ income for me while I’m sleeping, all of the doubters will become silent. Mark my words.

Teslaconomics

112,667 views • 6 months ago

Data has always been the bottleneck for physical AI in self driving and robotics. Tesla is taking two very different approaches for FSD and Optimus. Tesla’s Optimus Training Playbook: 1. Build 30k Optimus Gen 3 robots 2. Operate them in a mock environment where they can perform self-play “Optimus Academy” 3. Train in sim using the real robot data to close sim2real gap. Tesla FSD Training Playbook: 1. Sell millions of cars outfitted with cheap cameras 2. Collect diverse real world driving data (especially intervention and failure recovery data) for free as a byproduct of customers driving the cars. 3. Use driving data to train Autopilot/FSD and deploy policies incrementally as a supervised FSD product 4. Repeat until policy reaches robust unsupervised full self driving for robotaxi launch. The Tesla FSD playbook is a beautiful self-funding, customer subsidized, diverse real world data flywheel. The Optimus playbook is the opposite and shares none of the beautiful attributes of the FSD training flywheel that made FSD successful. The key differences: 1. Instead of having customers pay you for vehicles, Tesla will need to fund 30,000 Optimus robots. Assuming the current landed cost per unit is $100k, that will be $3B to build plus another ~30% per year for maintenance labor and spare parts given it’s still an unhardened pre-production prototype is another $900M per year. For reference, Tesla’s GAAP net income in 2025 was $3.8B. 2. Instead of having customers drive their Teslas on roads all across the world giving Tesla an insanely rich and diverse dataset that Waymo and other AV companies could never collect, the Optimus Academy is doing the equivalent of building a fake town in a parking lot and driving their car in that parking lot. No matter how real you try to make the environments for self-play you can never replicate the diversity, complexity and failure modes of the real world. Data collected in staged environments produces demo-grade policies and will not be rich enough to generalize to the vast diversity of environments, tasks, objects, etc. out of distribution. 3. Instead of having customers collect real world failure recovery data (DAgger style) for free every time FSD disengages, the Optimus Academy will need paid teleoperators or onsite operators to collect the recovery data. Assuming 1 person can manage 2 robots to start that would cost $3.5B in labor per year (30,000 robots, $40/hr fully loaded, 16 hrs/day, 365 days per year, 2:1 robot:operator). Tesla can come up with the money to do this but money doesn’t solve the “mock data” problem. Given the higher degrees of freedom in humanoids vs. cars, training a generalized humanoid will be harder and require more data than a self-driving vehicle. The best way to train your robot is by deploying them in the diverse real world, subsidized by real customer operations. Humanoids face a chicken and egg where it’s very hard to bootstrap your way to a first policy that’s good enough to deploy in real production environments. This is an extremely capital intensive playbook (which doesn’t even include cost of training). Time will tell if it works but a better playbook would be finding a way to copy the FSD playbook.

Data has always been the bottleneck for physical AI in self driving and robotics. Tesla is taking two very different approaches for FSD and Optimus. Tesla’s Optimus Training Playbook: 1. Build 30k Optimus Gen 3 robots 2. Operate them in a mock environment where they can perform self-play “Optimus Academy” 3. Train in sim using the real robot data to close sim2real gap. Tesla FSD Training Playbook: 1. Sell millions of cars outfitted with cheap cameras 2. Collect diverse real world driving data (especially intervention and failure recovery data) for free as a byproduct of customers driving the cars. 3. Use driving data to train Autopilot/FSD and deploy policies incrementally as a supervised FSD product 4. Repeat until policy reaches robust unsupervised full self driving for robotaxi launch. The Tesla FSD playbook is a beautiful self-funding, customer subsidized, diverse real world data flywheel. The Optimus playbook is the opposite and shares none of the beautiful attributes of the FSD training flywheel that made FSD successful. The key differences: 1. Instead of having customers pay you for vehicles, Tesla will need to fund 30,000 Optimus robots. Assuming the current landed cost per unit is $100k, that will be $3B to build plus another ~30% per year for maintenance labor and spare parts given it’s still an unhardened pre-production prototype is another $900M per year. For reference, Tesla’s GAAP net income in 2025 was $3.8B. 2. Instead of having customers drive their Teslas on roads all across the world giving Tesla an insanely rich and diverse dataset that Waymo and other AV companies could never collect, the Optimus Academy is doing the equivalent of building a fake town in a parking lot and driving their car in that parking lot. No matter how real you try to make the environments for self-play you can never replicate the diversity, complexity and failure modes of the real world. Data collected in staged environments produces demo-grade policies and will not be rich enough to generalize to the vast diversity of environments, tasks, objects, etc. out of distribution. 3. Instead of having customers collect real world failure recovery data (DAgger style) for free every time FSD disengages, the Optimus Academy will need paid teleoperators or onsite operators to collect the recovery data. Assuming 1 person can manage 2 robots to start that would cost $3.5B in labor per year (30,000 robots, $40/hr fully loaded, 16 hrs/day, 365 days per year, 2:1 robot:operator). Tesla can come up with the money to do this but money doesn’t solve the “mock data” problem. Given the higher degrees of freedom in humanoids vs. cars, training a generalized humanoid will be harder and require more data than a self-driving vehicle. The best way to train your robot is by deploying them in the diverse real world, subsidized by real customer operations. Humanoids face a chicken and egg where it’s very hard to bootstrap your way to a first policy that’s good enough to deploy in real production environments. This is an extremely capital intensive playbook (which doesn’t even include cost of training). Time will tell if it works but a better playbook would be finding a way to copy the FSD playbook.

Simon Kalouche

34,671 views • 6 months ago

If insurance companies don’t adapt to Tesla FSD, they’re going to have a real problem. In 2024 at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, Warren Buffett got asked, “Assuming Elon delivers on his fully autonomous driving goal. Elon said, if you’ve got at scale, a statistically significant amount of data that shows conclusively that the autonomous car has half the accident rate of a human driven car, I think that’s difficult to ignore. Assuming Elon succeeds in reducing accidents by 50% vs human drivers, wouldn’t auto insurance rates fall to reflect the reduced underwriting risks, thereby adversely impacting Geico’s revenues and float and perhaps margins, too?” His main response was, “Well, let’s just take the extreme example. Let’s say there are only going to be 3 accidents in the U.S. next year for some crazy reason… anything that reduces accidents is going to reduce costs… If accidents get reduced 50%, it’s going to be good for society and it’s going to be bad for insurance companies’ volume… but good for society is what we’re looking for.” I’ve followed Tesla closely for years and now the proof is impossible to ignore. Profiting from insurance is built on risk and FSD is systematically removing it. FSD has now crossed the data threshold that insurers can’t ignore. By 2026, Tesla FSD has logged over 10B+ real world miles from real human behavior, real streets, real weather, real chaos, and it’s materially more data than ANY company in the world has today. Tesla’s own safety reports show it clearly: • Human driven U.S. average: ~1M miles per accident • Tesla Autopilot: ~4.5M miles per accident • Tesla FSD engaged: ~7.5M miles per accident That’s a 7.5x safety improvement over human driving! If the risk is 7.5x lower, and your premiums you’re charging customers don’t change, something is wrong. Insurance pricing is supposed to reflect this risk. This is why today’s Lemonade announcement is a wake up call to insurance providers. When Lemonade announced it’s offering a 50% insurance discount when FSD is steering, they’re reacting to Tesla FSD data. Fewer crashes results in fewer payouts, period. This is what adaptive insurance looks like and thus why Tesla & Lemonade insurance has an advantage. They are adapting to real FSD data and real time risk, and adjusting the prices. All while traditional insurance companies are still using broad historical averages, falling behind and losing customers. Companies like GEICO, State Farm, and Allstate were built for a world where humans are driving, risk is random, and prices update slowly. I believe this era of insurance is ending. Even Warren admitted it in this video, saying cutting accidents in half is great for society, but BAD for insurance volume. Bc less risk means lower premiums and lower premiums mean less float and less float is the core of traditional insurance profits! If FSD adoption hits even 50% of Tesla’s fleet, I bet accident rates could drop 30-50% industry wide. That alone puts massive pressure on a ~$300B U.S. auto insurance market today. This is also why I believe Tesla insurance has a MAJOR advantage. Your premium is solely based on data. It uses real time vehicle telemetry, scores you based on actual driving behavior, and rewards your FSD usage directly and right away. In places like California, Tesla Insurance premiums for FSD users are already 20-30% cheaper than competitors. In some cases, safe drivers see up to 60% discounts. And in Texas, claims for FSD users are 40% lower than non-FSD drivers. The long term outcome is becoming obvious to me. Insurance companies that DO NOT adapt prices dynamically, use real time data, and recognize FSD’s safety advantage will most likely lose their best customers to companies that do. For Tesla owners, this is great news bc safer driving, esp using FSD will result in cheaper insurance, but for legacy insurers, this is an existential moment. You either adapt or risk getting left behind.

If insurance companies don’t adapt to Tesla FSD, they’re going to have a real problem. In 2024 at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, Warren Buffett got asked, “Assuming Elon delivers on his fully autonomous driving goal. Elon said, if you’ve got at scale, a statistically significant amount of data that shows conclusively that the autonomous car has half the accident rate of a human driven car, I think that’s difficult to ignore. Assuming Elon succeeds in reducing accidents by 50% vs human drivers, wouldn’t auto insurance rates fall to reflect the reduced underwriting risks, thereby adversely impacting Geico’s revenues and float and perhaps margins, too?” His main response was, “Well, let’s just take the extreme example. Let’s say there are only going to be 3 accidents in the U.S. next year for some crazy reason… anything that reduces accidents is going to reduce costs… If accidents get reduced 50%, it’s going to be good for society and it’s going to be bad for insurance companies’ volume… but good for society is what we’re looking for.” I’ve followed Tesla closely for years and now the proof is impossible to ignore. Profiting from insurance is built on risk and FSD is systematically removing it. FSD has now crossed the data threshold that insurers can’t ignore. By 2026, Tesla FSD has logged over 10B+ real world miles from real human behavior, real streets, real weather, real chaos, and it’s materially more data than ANY company in the world has today. Tesla’s own safety reports show it clearly: • Human driven U.S. average: ~1M miles per accident • Tesla Autopilot: ~4.5M miles per accident • Tesla FSD engaged: ~7.5M miles per accident That’s a 7.5x safety improvement over human driving! If the risk is 7.5x lower, and your premiums you’re charging customers don’t change, something is wrong. Insurance pricing is supposed to reflect this risk. This is why today’s Lemonade announcement is a wake up call to insurance providers. When Lemonade announced it’s offering a 50% insurance discount when FSD is steering, they’re reacting to Tesla FSD data. Fewer crashes results in fewer payouts, period. This is what adaptive insurance looks like and thus why Tesla & Lemonade insurance has an advantage. They are adapting to real FSD data and real time risk, and adjusting the prices. All while traditional insurance companies are still using broad historical averages, falling behind and losing customers. Companies like GEICO, State Farm, and Allstate were built for a world where humans are driving, risk is random, and prices update slowly. I believe this era of insurance is ending. Even Warren admitted it in this video, saying cutting accidents in half is great for society, but BAD for insurance volume. Bc less risk means lower premiums and lower premiums mean less float and less float is the core of traditional insurance profits! If FSD adoption hits even 50% of Tesla’s fleet, I bet accident rates could drop 30-50% industry wide. That alone puts massive pressure on a ~$300B U.S. auto insurance market today. This is also why I believe Tesla insurance has a MAJOR advantage. Your premium is solely based on data. It uses real time vehicle telemetry, scores you based on actual driving behavior, and rewards your FSD usage directly and right away. In places like California, Tesla Insurance premiums for FSD users are already 20-30% cheaper than competitors. In some cases, safe drivers see up to 60% discounts. And in Texas, claims for FSD users are 40% lower than non-FSD drivers. The long term outcome is becoming obvious to me. Insurance companies that DO NOT adapt prices dynamically, use real time data, and recognize FSD’s safety advantage will most likely lose their best customers to companies that do. For Tesla owners, this is great news bc safer driving, esp using FSD will result in cheaper insurance, but for legacy insurers, this is an existential moment. You either adapt or risk getting left behind.

Teslaconomics

140,963 views • 6 months ago

ROBOTRUCKING (Tesla semi + FSD 14) can be more profitable than robotaxi. Everyone is missing the potential profitability and stock impact of Tesla's Semi truck equipped with Full Self-Driving (FSD), transforming it into a robotruck. FSD is making solid progress in Austin and FSD 14 will be released in September with 10X the parameters. Test pilot production has started for Tesla Semi as the factory in Nevada is done. Farzad 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Herbert Ong Dave Lee Warren Redlich - Chasing Dreams 🇺🇸 Randy Kirk stevenmarkryan Sawyer Merritt ARK Invest Elon Musk Robotrucks could generate 10x the profit of Tesla's Cybercab robo taxis, with each truck potentially yielding $650,000 in annual profit compared to $50,000–$70,000 per year for a robotaxi. This is driven by trucks' ability to operate 22 hours/day, covering 200,000–350,000 miles/year (4–7x more than taxis), while maintaining similar revenue per mile ($2–$2.60) and lower costs (32–34 cents/mile total ownership cost without drivers). Production is ramping up to 50,000 units/year, and FSD is progressing rapidly. Unlike robo taxis, which may face revenue drops competing with personal cars (down to 70 cents/mile), trucking is purely commercial with a stable $2 trillion global market. This will drive massive Tesla valuation growth: conservative estimates add $3,000–$6,000 to share price by 2030, while capturing the full market could reach $80 trillion (including robotaxis) in share value. Optimus robots could further boost efficiency and demand by 4x, enabling new logistics and economic growth.

ROBOTRUCKING (Tesla semi + FSD 14) can be more profitable than robotaxi. Everyone is missing the potential profitability and stock impact of Tesla's Semi truck equipped with Full Self-Driving (FSD), transforming it into a robotruck. FSD is making solid progress in Austin and FSD 14 will be released in September with 10X the parameters. Test pilot production has started for Tesla Semi as the factory in Nevada is done. Farzad 🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Herbert Ong Dave Lee Warren Redlich - Chasing Dreams 🇺🇸 Randy Kirk stevenmarkryan Sawyer Merritt ARK Invest Elon Musk Robotrucks could generate 10x the profit of Tesla's Cybercab robo taxis, with each truck potentially yielding $650,000 in annual profit compared to $50,000–$70,000 per year for a robotaxi. This is driven by trucks' ability to operate 22 hours/day, covering 200,000–350,000 miles/year (4–7x more than taxis), while maintaining similar revenue per mile ($2–$2.60) and lower costs (32–34 cents/mile total ownership cost without drivers). Production is ramping up to 50,000 units/year, and FSD is progressing rapidly. Unlike robo taxis, which may face revenue drops competing with personal cars (down to 70 cents/mile), trucking is purely commercial with a stable $2 trillion global market. This will drive massive Tesla valuation growth: conservative estimates add $3,000–$6,000 to share price by 2030, while capturing the full market could reach $80 trillion (including robotaxis) in share value. Optimus robots could further boost efficiency and demand by 4x, enabling new logistics and economic growth.

nextbigfuture

63,408 views • 11 months ago

In a world where FSD v14 exists, why is the take rate SO RIDICULOUSLY LOW? And why is the utilization rate low too, even for Tesla drivers who've paid for it? Here's one reason that no one is talking about: "You never get a second chance at a first impression," and Adaptive Cruise Control & Autosteer SUCK. They scare the 💩 out of people w/ phantom braking & poor perception all the time. Listen to this clip of Jason Cammisa & Derek Tam-Scott discussing the dramatic differences in how good FSD is compared to how horrendously awful Adaptive Cruise Control is (and Autosteer isn't much better, tbh). Now remember, these are the first (and many times only) impression that MOST Tesla drivers get of how well a Tesla can drive itself. If Adaptive Cruise scares them, why should they ever even try FSD? Won't that just give the dumb ass car even more opportunity to scare / kill them? If you're in the Tesla bubble like me, you know that FSD actually fixes all those nasty little quirks instead of amplifying them. But how are all the normie drivers who've never seen a video of a Whole Mars Catalog drive supposed to know that? I get that Adaptive Cruise & Autosteer don't drive revenue, that they're based on old versions of the tech, and that it's hard to prioritize updating them while FSD & Robotaxi are right on the cusp of getting to unsupervised, but if Tesla_AI wants to improve the take rate of FSD, they need to fix the user experience for these lower levels of ADAS ASAP. Elon Musk Ashok Elluswamy Yun-Ta Tsai Dhaval Shroff etc.

In a world where FSD v14 exists, why is the take rate SO RIDICULOUSLY LOW? And why is the utilization rate low too, even for Tesla drivers who've paid for it? Here's one reason that no one is talking about: "You never get a second chance at a first impression," and Adaptive Cruise Control & Autosteer SUCK. They scare the 💩 out of people w/ phantom braking & poor perception all the time. Listen to this clip of Jason Cammisa & Derek Tam-Scott discussing the dramatic differences in how good FSD is compared to how horrendously awful Adaptive Cruise Control is (and Autosteer isn't much better, tbh). Now remember, these are the first (and many times only) impression that MOST Tesla drivers get of how well a Tesla can drive itself. If Adaptive Cruise scares them, why should they ever even try FSD? Won't that just give the dumb ass car even more opportunity to scare / kill them? If you're in the Tesla bubble like me, you know that FSD actually fixes all those nasty little quirks instead of amplifying them. But how are all the normie drivers who've never seen a video of a Whole Mars Catalog drive supposed to know that? I get that Adaptive Cruise & Autosteer don't drive revenue, that they're based on old versions of the tech, and that it's hard to prioritize updating them while FSD & Robotaxi are right on the cusp of getting to unsupervised, but if Tesla_AI wants to improve the take rate of FSD, they need to fix the user experience for these lower levels of ADAS ASAP. Elon Musk Ashok Elluswamy Yun-Ta Tsai Dhaval Shroff etc.

Hans C Nelson 🗽

42,411 views • 7 months ago