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🇺🇸 Tesla has published new safety data for FSD Supervised, and the methodology is worth a look as much as the numbers. FSD has now covered over 12.6 billion miles, with nearly 4.9 billion of those driven in cities, where the hazards are densest. With FSD engaged, Tesla reports...

51,257 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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Tesla has just open-sourced one of the key pieces of evidence used to support the Netherlands approval of FSD (Supervised) to try and push for EU-wide approval, saying that its safety benefit remains "locked behind bureaucracy." Some highlights: • Tesla conducted 230,000+ structured scenario tests across 6 European cities, achieving a 99%+ overall pass rate with zero safety-critical events. • In Europe, Tesla accumulated 793,000+ FSD engineering miles across 8 countries with zero major or minor collisions attributed to FSD performance. • Tesla reports zero major or minor collisions attributed to FSD performance across the European engineering-fleet validation cited in its safety case. • Only 2.5% of FSD lane changes had a Driver Monitoring System warning during the preceding seven seconds. • Only 0.6% of FSD lane changes had an escalation/driver-response request in the preceding seven seconds. • In Tesla's European engineering fleet, FSD showed 77–97% lower AEB activation rates, depending on road class. • Tesla analyzed nearly 2 billion FSD miles in North America in 2025, including 700+ million non-highway miles. • FSD had 40–69% fewer major collisions than manually driven Teslas with active safety features, depending on road type. • FSD had 48–59% fewer minor collisions than manually driven Teslas with active safety features. • Compared with older Teslas without active safety features, FSD had 71–90% fewer major collisions. • FSD had 74–84% fewer Automatic Emergency Braking (AEB) events, suggesting substantially fewer imminent-collision situations. • FSD had 83–95% fewer harsh acceleration/braking events and 55–75% fewer high lateral-acceleration events than manual driving. • During lane changes, FSD had 99% fewer minor collisions on highways and 95% fewer on non-highway roads than manual driving with active safety features. • FSD drivers experienced 67% fewer highway fatigue events than manual drivers. • European testing achieved 98.9% pass rates at roundabouts, 99.2% at intersections, 99.7% at crosswalks, and 99.9% when yielding to cyclists. Tesla added that this exact dashboard was shared with all EU Member States in April 2026, shortly after RDW’s approval, and all data presented is from before that date. Tesla: "European countries recorded 19,400 road deaths in 2025. That's around 53 deaths/day, with the vast majority of these crashes attributed to human error. These deaths are largely preventable with technology we have today. FSD Supervised is already saving lives where it’s approved – yet in much of Europe, that safety benefit remains locked behind bureaucracy."

Sawyer Merritt

180,376 Aufrufe • vor 26 Tagen

If insurance companies don’t adapt to Tesla FSD, they’re going to have a real problem. In 2024 at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, Warren Buffett got asked, “Assuming Elon delivers on his fully autonomous driving goal. Elon said, if you’ve got at scale, a statistically significant amount of data that shows conclusively that the autonomous car has half the accident rate of a human driven car, I think that’s difficult to ignore. Assuming Elon succeeds in reducing accidents by 50% vs human drivers, wouldn’t auto insurance rates fall to reflect the reduced underwriting risks, thereby adversely impacting Geico’s revenues and float and perhaps margins, too?” His main response was, “Well, let’s just take the extreme example. Let’s say there are only going to be 3 accidents in the U.S. next year for some crazy reason… anything that reduces accidents is going to reduce costs… If accidents get reduced 50%, it’s going to be good for society and it’s going to be bad for insurance companies’ volume… but good for society is what we’re looking for.” I’ve followed Tesla closely for years and now the proof is impossible to ignore. Profiting from insurance is built on risk and FSD is systematically removing it. FSD has now crossed the data threshold that insurers can’t ignore. By 2026, Tesla FSD has logged over 10B+ real world miles from real human behavior, real streets, real weather, real chaos, and it’s materially more data than ANY company in the world has today. Tesla’s own safety reports show it clearly: • Human driven U.S. average: ~1M miles per accident • Tesla Autopilot: ~4.5M miles per accident • Tesla FSD engaged: ~7.5M miles per accident That’s a 7.5x safety improvement over human driving! If the risk is 7.5x lower, and your premiums you’re charging customers don’t change, something is wrong. Insurance pricing is supposed to reflect this risk. This is why today’s Lemonade announcement is a wake up call to insurance providers. When Lemonade announced it’s offering a 50% insurance discount when FSD is steering, they’re reacting to Tesla FSD data. Fewer crashes results in fewer payouts, period. This is what adaptive insurance looks like and thus why Tesla & Lemonade insurance has an advantage. They are adapting to real FSD data and real time risk, and adjusting the prices. All while traditional insurance companies are still using broad historical averages, falling behind and losing customers. Companies like GEICO, State Farm, and Allstate were built for a world where humans are driving, risk is random, and prices update slowly. I believe this era of insurance is ending. Even Warren admitted it in this video, saying cutting accidents in half is great for society, but BAD for insurance volume. Bc less risk means lower premiums and lower premiums mean less float and less float is the core of traditional insurance profits! If FSD adoption hits even 50% of Tesla’s fleet, I bet accident rates could drop 30-50% industry wide. That alone puts massive pressure on a ~$300B U.S. auto insurance market today. This is also why I believe Tesla insurance has a MAJOR advantage. Your premium is solely based on data. It uses real time vehicle telemetry, scores you based on actual driving behavior, and rewards your FSD usage directly and right away. In places like California, Tesla Insurance premiums for FSD users are already 20-30% cheaper than competitors. In some cases, safe drivers see up to 60% discounts. And in Texas, claims for FSD users are 40% lower than non-FSD drivers. The long term outcome is becoming obvious to me. Insurance companies that DO NOT adapt prices dynamically, use real time data, and recognize FSD’s safety advantage will most likely lose their best customers to companies that do. For Tesla owners, this is great news bc safer driving, esp using FSD will result in cheaper insurance, but for legacy insurers, this is an existential moment. You either adapt or risk getting left behind.

Teslaconomics

141,052 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten