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🇺🇸 "We're low keying it"... That's how the war is being described while American troops sit in the blast radius. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar has no patience for the vague reassurances coming out of Washington, the "it always works out" framing applied to a conflict where service members are... show more

Mario Nawfal

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82,741 views • 1 month ago •via X (Twitter)

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Two exits remain from this war, and both of them are catastrophic. Ground troops or a tactical nuclear weapon... that's the choice Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar says Washington has narrowed itself down to: "Donald Trump right now wants a way out of this. And the only way out is to give the perception that there's been a victory." Anthony isn't arguing either option works. His point is that the search for something that looks like a win has replaced the search for something that ends it.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Two exits remain from this war, and both of them are catastrophic. Ground troops or a tactical nuclear weapon... that's the choice Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar says Washington has narrowed itself down to: "Donald Trump right now wants a way out of this. And the only way out is to give the perception that there's been a victory." Anthony isn't arguing either option works. His point is that the search for something that looks like a win has replaced the search for something that ends it.

Mario Nawfal

101,446 views • 1 month ago

🇮🇷🇺🇸 One sharp truth the Navy isn't talking about loudly enough. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar just laid it out clearly. "Imagine your sonar men are looking for torpedoes, and your deck men are looking for incoming missile. And actually the missile is skimming across the top of the water." Iran’s coastal arsenal stays invisible until it suddenly isn’t. Anthony Aguilar

🇮🇷🇺🇸 One sharp truth the Navy isn't talking about loudly enough. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar just laid it out clearly. "Imagine your sonar men are looking for torpedoes, and your deck men are looking for incoming missile. And actually the missile is skimming across the top of the water." Iran’s coastal arsenal stays invisible until it suddenly isn’t. Anthony Aguilar

Mario Nawfal

65,826 views • 5 months ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 A blockade is an act of war, the ceasefire was already broken, and the U.S. may have wanted Iran to shoot first. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar just laid it all out. "Not only possible. I think that throughout history we've seen that that is often the case." This conflict is nowhere near over. Anthony Aguilar

🇺🇸🇮🇷 A blockade is an act of war, the ceasefire was already broken, and the U.S. may have wanted Iran to shoot first. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar just laid it all out. "Not only possible. I think that throughout history we've seen that that is often the case." This conflict is nowhere near over. Anthony Aguilar

Mario Nawfal

52,185 views • 5 months ago

$🇺🇸🇨🇳 The next world order may not begin with a war. It may begin with China vetoing Washington at the UN while the U.S. discovers it no longer has the leverage to force the outcome it wants. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar argues the U.S. is entering a multipolar era overstretched, politically fractured, and weaker than it admits, while Beijing quietly positions itself to shape the rules of what comes next. “Anyone that thinks that the U.S. military is strong and ready for anything is simply not informed.” @AnthonyAgu88102$

🇺🇸🇨🇳 The next world order may not begin with a war. It may begin with China vetoing Washington at the UN while the U.S. discovers it no longer has the leverage to force the outcome it wants. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar argues the U.S. is entering a multipolar era overstretched, politically fractured, and weaker than it admits, while Beijing quietly positions itself to shape the rules of what comes next. “Anyone that thinks that the U.S. military is strong and ready for anything is simply not informed.” @AnthonyAgu88102

Mario Nawfal

90,892 views • 4 months ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 92% of Israelis believe Iran won the war. Only 10 to 15% of Americans agree. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar says the gap comes down to who actually felt the impact and who's paying attention to the fine print. "Print out the one and a half page 14 point MoU and read it. It is very clear from a strategic and operational framework that the United States of America lost this war." Most Americans are one Fox News segment away from believing we won.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 92% of Israelis believe Iran won the war. Only 10 to 15% of Americans agree. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar says the gap comes down to who actually felt the impact and who's paying attention to the fine print. "Print out the one and a half page 14 point MoU and read it. It is very clear from a strategic and operational framework that the United States of America lost this war." Most Americans are one Fox News segment away from believing we won.

Mario Nawfal

87,348 views • 3 months ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 A low-yield tactical nuclear option may already be under consideration at the highest levels, with pressure building as the conflict drags on without resolution. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar says he is confident such a strike is on the list of options for Trump, and believes its likelihood increases with each passing day. "I not only think it's possible, I firmly believe, and I am confident that it is on the list of options that the Joint Staff has prepared for the president of the United States." Anthony Aguilar

🇺🇸🇮🇷 A low-yield tactical nuclear option may already be under consideration at the highest levels, with pressure building as the conflict drags on without resolution. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar says he is confident such a strike is on the list of options for Trump, and believes its likelihood increases with each passing day. "I not only think it's possible, I firmly believe, and I am confident that it is on the list of options that the Joint Staff has prepared for the president of the United States." Anthony Aguilar

Mario Nawfal

71,025 views • 5 months ago

🇺🇸🇨🇳 America spent years calling China and Russia near peers, and this war showed who's actually ahead. Ret. U.S. Army Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar says the conflict confirmed what senior officers understood privately without saying publicly: "What this conflict has exposed is that the United States is no longer near peer with some of these near peers, and in some cases they are more advanced." The gap that justified the entire defense budget has closed, and in places it has reversed.

🇺🇸🇨🇳 America spent years calling China and Russia near peers, and this war showed who's actually ahead. Ret. U.S. Army Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar says the conflict confirmed what senior officers understood privately without saying publicly: "What this conflict has exposed is that the United States is no longer near peer with some of these near peers, and in some cases they are more advanced." The gap that justified the entire defense budget has closed, and in places it has reversed.

Mario Nawfal

33,190 views • 1 month ago

🇮🇷🇺🇸 One sharp question is driving all of this: how far can Iran push before Trump is forced to respond? Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar just laid it all out. "Iran is trying to figure out, okay, where is that red line? Where is that point of response? Where is that button? So we know how far we can go." The UAE is getting hit, the Strait of Hormuz is in play, and nobody knows what's coming next. Anthony Aguilar

🇮🇷🇺🇸 One sharp question is driving all of this: how far can Iran push before Trump is forced to respond? Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar just laid it all out. "Iran is trying to figure out, okay, where is that red line? Where is that point of response? Where is that button? So we know how far we can go." The UAE is getting hit, the Strait of Hormuz is in play, and nobody knows what's coming next. Anthony Aguilar

Mario Nawfal

42,525 views • 5 months ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Full-blown war is off the table, but what replaces it may not be any safer. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar predicts decapitation strikes on Iran are imminent. "I'm quite confident that the president of the United States, through the direction of the secretary of Defense, has the orders or the plans for U.S. forces to conduct two pronged assault operations to seize and control." Anthony Aguilar

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Full-blown war is off the table, but what replaces it may not be any safer. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar predicts decapitation strikes on Iran are imminent. "I'm quite confident that the president of the United States, through the direction of the secretary of Defense, has the orders or the plans for U.S. forces to conduct two pronged assault operations to seize and control." Anthony Aguilar

Mario Nawfal

82,071 views • 5 months ago

🇺🇸 The ceasefire is not slowing the buildup. It is accelerating it. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar just broke down what the Pentagon is quietly moving into position, and it is not a peacetime posture. "When you have the collapse of negotiations, when you have a ceasefire or a negotiation that seemingly is not going anywhere and you have a massive increase in combat forces, these are not just troops. These are combat forces. That portends to me that war escalation of war is on the horizon." 60,000 troops, four carriers, nuclear submarines, 25 Stratotankers at Ben Gurion. This is not a drill. Anthony Aguilar

🇺🇸 The ceasefire is not slowing the buildup. It is accelerating it. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar just broke down what the Pentagon is quietly moving into position, and it is not a peacetime posture. "When you have the collapse of negotiations, when you have a ceasefire or a negotiation that seemingly is not going anywhere and you have a massive increase in combat forces, these are not just troops. These are combat forces. That portends to me that war escalation of war is on the horizon." 60,000 troops, four carriers, nuclear submarines, 25 Stratotankers at Ben Gurion. This is not a drill. Anthony Aguilar

Mario Nawfal

170,482 views • 5 months ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran may not have a navy powerful enough to defeat the U.S., but it has enough asymmetric weapons to make any war painfully costly. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar breaks down how the Strait of Hormuz, buried missile launchers, and swarm tactics change every calculation. "As military operations continue, the options only get worse." And with China and Russia now drawing red lines, the window for a clean military solution may already be closed. Anthony Aguilar

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran may not have a navy powerful enough to defeat the U.S., but it has enough asymmetric weapons to make any war painfully costly. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar breaks down how the Strait of Hormuz, buried missile launchers, and swarm tactics change every calculation. "As military operations continue, the options only get worse." And with China and Russia now drawing red lines, the window for a clean military solution may already be closed. Anthony Aguilar

Mario Nawfal

69,306 views • 4 months ago

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar: Trump just told the world "it always works out" about a war he started. That's not a strategy. He's counting 3 quotes from Trump in 24 hours: "we're low keying it," "we're semi-negotiating," "it always works out." Aguilar's blunt take: those sound less like a commander in chief and more like an 8-year-old explaining a bad report card. Meanwhile there are sailors on the Abraham Lincoln eating whatever's left in the galley and hoping the interceptors work. Here's the part that actually worries him: Iran just signaled through Ghalibaf's office that they're done negotiating with Trump entirely. They're going to wait him out until 2029. Iran's been under sanctions for over a decade; they can absorb pain most of the region can't. So they're betting they can simply outlast this administration. That's the dangerous move, Aguilar says, because it takes away Trump's off-ramp. If Iran won't give him anything to claim as a win, he's left with three options to save face before the next election: control of the strait (window's closing), the nuclear file, or regime change. None of those get solved with airstrikes. That's already been tried. He's got a physics metaphor: potential energy. All the pieces for a ground option are already staged: Green Berets, Kurdish partners, two carrier groups, a brigade of the 82nd sitting in the region. Nothing's stopping it except the decision to actually drop it. He thinks that decision gets made before Trump leaves office, not because the war is winnable, but because the alternative is running for reelection with nothing to show for it. The stat that stuck with him: World Bank growth forecasts for Gulf economies just got cut from 4.5% to 1.3% in a year. Everyone's feeling this. Iran's just better built to sit through it.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar: Trump just told the world "it always works out" about a war he started. That's not a strategy. He's counting 3 quotes from Trump in 24 hours: "we're low keying it," "we're semi-negotiating," "it always works out." Aguilar's blunt take: those sound less like a commander in chief and more like an 8-year-old explaining a bad report card. Meanwhile there are sailors on the Abraham Lincoln eating whatever's left in the galley and hoping the interceptors work. Here's the part that actually worries him: Iran just signaled through Ghalibaf's office that they're done negotiating with Trump entirely. They're going to wait him out until 2029. Iran's been under sanctions for over a decade; they can absorb pain most of the region can't. So they're betting they can simply outlast this administration. That's the dangerous move, Aguilar says, because it takes away Trump's off-ramp. If Iran won't give him anything to claim as a win, he's left with three options to save face before the next election: control of the strait (window's closing), the nuclear file, or regime change. None of those get solved with airstrikes. That's already been tried. He's got a physics metaphor: potential energy. All the pieces for a ground option are already staged: Green Berets, Kurdish partners, two carrier groups, a brigade of the 82nd sitting in the region. Nothing's stopping it except the decision to actually drop it. He thinks that decision gets made before Trump leaves office, not because the war is winnable, but because the alternative is running for reelection with nothing to show for it. The stat that stuck with him: World Bank growth forecasts for Gulf economies just got cut from 4.5% to 1.3% in a year. Everyone's feeling this. Iran's just better built to sit through it.

Mario Nawfal

285,857 views • 1 month ago

🇮🇷🇺🇸Every major concession in the ceasefire deal points in one direction. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar breaks down why "ending the conflict" is not the same as winning it. "Those are each one of those are wins for Iran. The only thing the United States gets out of this is ending the conflict. Yeah, but that is not a win." Israel may pull back from Lebanon, but the scoreboard tells a different story.

🇮🇷🇺🇸Every major concession in the ceasefire deal points in one direction. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar breaks down why "ending the conflict" is not the same as winning it. "Those are each one of those are wins for Iran. The only thing the United States gets out of this is ending the conflict. Yeah, but that is not a win." Israel may pull back from Lebanon, but the scoreboard tells a different story.

Mario Nawfal

269,090 views • 3 months ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The ceasefire isn't holding, and the next few hours could change it all. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar breaks down where it stands and why the UAE, Israel, and the U.S. are waiting on another before making a move. "The ceasefire is within inches of collapsing." @AnthonyAgu88102

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The ceasefire isn't holding, and the next few hours could change it all. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar breaks down where it stands and why the UAE, Israel, and the U.S. are waiting on another before making a move. "The ceasefire is within inches of collapsing." @AnthonyAgu88102

Mario Nawfal

31,700 views • 5 months ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The next U.S. operation in Iran may not be about destroying anything. It may be about producing footage, headlines, and a political victory Washington can sell to the public. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar says the military buildup around Iran looks less like a realistic mission to secure uranium and more like preparation for a symbolic operation designed for media impact. “It would not be beyond this Trump administration to conduct an operation, put it into the news to say, look, we did it, and then fake having any uranium.” @AnthonyAgu88102

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The next U.S. operation in Iran may not be about destroying anything. It may be about producing footage, headlines, and a political victory Washington can sell to the public. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar says the military buildup around Iran looks less like a realistic mission to secure uranium and more like preparation for a symbolic operation designed for media impact. “It would not be beyond this Trump administration to conduct an operation, put it into the news to say, look, we did it, and then fake having any uranium.” @AnthonyAgu88102

Mario Nawfal

98,192 views • 4 months ago

🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 The biggest danger may be a slow escalation where every failed strategy just leads to a bigger one. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar says the U.S. and Israel are running out of options after decapitation strikes, infrastructure attacks, and military pressure all failed to break Iran’s capabilities. “We’ve wasted half of our munitions stockpiles and they’ve got 90% of it left.” He compares the situation to a mix of World War I and Vietnam: a grinding stalemate where every response creates an even larger conflict. @AnthonyAgu88102

🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 The biggest danger may be a slow escalation where every failed strategy just leads to a bigger one. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar says the U.S. and Israel are running out of options after decapitation strikes, infrastructure attacks, and military pressure all failed to break Iran’s capabilities. “We’ve wasted half of our munitions stockpiles and they’ve got 90% of it left.” He compares the situation to a mix of World War I and Vietnam: a grinding stalemate where every response creates an even larger conflict. @AnthonyAgu88102

Mario Nawfal

25,403 views • 4 months ago

🇺🇸 America's best weapons have become so destructive they're only useful for deterrence or all-out war. Ret. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar says that leaves no rung in between, which is exactly the trap Washington keeps walking into: "All you have is a hammer. Well, every problem looks like a nail. Every problem is not a nail." Once an adversary decides to test whether the threat is real, the options collapse to backing down or escalating, with nothing left in the middle.

🇺🇸 America's best weapons have become so destructive they're only useful for deterrence or all-out war. Ret. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar says that leaves no rung in between, which is exactly the trap Washington keeps walking into: "All you have is a hammer. Well, every problem looks like a nail. Every problem is not a nail." Once an adversary decides to test whether the threat is real, the options collapse to backing down or escalating, with nothing left in the middle.

Mario Nawfal

46,924 views • 1 month ago

For families in Gaza, the Yellow Line is more than a boundary; it dictates where they can live, move and even look. The Yellow Line is a boundary established under the US-backed ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, marking the area of Gaza under Israeli military control. We spoke to those living closest to it, where every day can mean the difference between life and death. The IDF said the area near the Yellow Line is a sensitive operational zone where civilians are warned not to approach troops. It denied knowingly firing at civilians who pose no threat.

For families in Gaza, the Yellow Line is more than a boundary; it dictates where they can live, move and even look. The Yellow Line is a boundary established under the US-backed ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, marking the area of Gaza under Israeli military control. We spoke to those living closest to it, where every day can mean the difference between life and death. The IDF said the area near the Yellow Line is a sensitive operational zone where civilians are warned not to approach troops. It denied knowingly firing at civilians who pose no threat.

Channel 4 News

25,045 views • 1 month ago

🇮🇱 A factory that survived the entire war just blew up the moment peace talks hit their most fragile point. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar says when you match the blast signature to what the facility actually does, the numbers don't add up without sabotage. "These discussions in Switzerland are on a literal tightrope." If this was a message, it was sent at exactly the right moment to do maximum damage.

🇮🇱 A factory that survived the entire war just blew up the moment peace talks hit their most fragile point. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar says when you match the blast signature to what the facility actually does, the numbers don't add up without sabotage. "These discussions in Switzerland are on a literal tightrope." If this was a message, it was sent at exactly the right moment to do maximum damage.

Mario Nawfal

242,388 views • 3 months ago

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. is burning two carrier strike groups and 75,000 troops just to push a trickle of oil through a coastal workaround nobody planned for. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar breaks down why this band-aid strategy has an expiration date nobody in Washington wants to name. "What the United States is doing right now in terms of this distant blockade, it cannot be sustained."

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. is burning two carrier strike groups and 75,000 troops just to push a trickle of oil through a coastal workaround nobody planned for. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar breaks down why this band-aid strategy has an expiration date nobody in Washington wants to name. "What the United States is doing right now in terms of this distant blockade, it cannot be sustained."

Mario Nawfal

28,231 views • 6 days ago