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What developers at Anthropic, OpenAI, and other artificial intelligence companies are saying about AI potentially ending humanity is based, at least in part, on internal concerns and conversations among their investors. They need to understand that AI is being developed, in part, to assist billionaires and other powerful groups...

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Why is the market selling off today? (Save this). The semi selloff right now is being driven by a mix of macro fear, profit taking and investors questioning how quickly all of this AI spending will actually pay off, not because demand for AI infrastructure suddenly disappeared. The market is basically trading this chain reaction, the ongoing US Iran escalation pushes oil higher, higher oil keeps inflation elevated, sticky inflation keeps Treasury yields high and that increases the risk of the Fed staying hawkish or even hiking again. That is a terrible setup for semis because many of these companies are valued on the massive earnings investors expect them to generate years from now. When yields rise, those future earnings become worth less today which is why the highest multiple AI and semiconductor names usually get hit first. (I don't think there will be a hike this year). This is also why everything is moving together right now. Nvidia, Micron, Nebius, SanDisk, Broadcom and Applied Optoelectronics are all completely different businesses, but institutions are not separating memory, networking, optics, compute and cloud infrastructure at the moment. They are reducing exposure to the entire AI trade, taking profits in the names that have already run the most and moving into a more defensive position potentially ahead of the Fed. There is also growing pressure around hyperscaler capex. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Google are still spending enormous amounts on GPUs, data centers, networking and power but the market is starting to ask when all of that spending will actually turn into revenue and free cash flow. Investors are no longer satisfied with hearing that AI capex is growing. They want proof that the returns are arriving fast enough to justify the valuations already priced into the entire AI ecosystem. That creates a weird situation where hyperscaler capex can continue rising while semiconductor stocks still fall. The market is not asking whether AI spending is growing anymore but rather asking whether it is growing fast enough to beat the expectations already baked into these stocks. Crowded positioning is another major factor. Semis and AI infrastructure stocks have been some of the biggest winners in the market so institutions are sitting on huge profits and many funds own the exact same names. When macro risk increases, investors usually sell the most liquid winners first. That does not mean demand for memory, optics or custom chips suddenly collapsed but rather means investors are locking in gains and reducing risk. Tariffs add another layer because even when they are not directly placed on chips, they can still raise the cost of servers, electrical equipment, cooling systems, construction materials and the overall data center buildout. That makes AI infrastructure more expensive while also adding another source of inflation. Then you have Jensen Huang’s letter to the White House this morning about open weight AI models, which I think is one of the most important long term developments here. Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Palantir and several other companies are pushing Washington not to place broad restrictions on open weight AI. OpenAI and Anthropic were notably absent because open models are much more of a threat to their business models. OpenAI and Anthropic benefit from a world where a few closed frontier labs control the best models and companies have to pay them through subscriptions and APIs. Open weight models weaken that advantage because businesses can download a model, customize it for their own use and run it on their own infrastructure or through a neocloud. That is bad for OpenAI and Anthropic because it puts pressure on pricing, margins and the idea that they will control the intelligence layer of the economy but it is very good for the AI ecosystem as a whole over the long run. But the question is what does this mean for all the OpenAI and Anthropic commitments? so that's adding to the fear as well. But with that being said open models make AI cheaper and more accessible. Instead of AI being controlled by a few giant labs, thousands of startups, universities, governments and regular businesses can deploy models themselves. That spreads AI adoption across the entire economy and creates a much larger infrastructure opportunity and that is exactly why Jensen cares. Nvidia does not need OpenAI or Anthropic to win. Nvidia just needs more people using AI. Whether the model comes from OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, Mistral, Kimi or some startup nobody has heard of yet, it still needs GPUs, memory, networking, data centers and electricity. So open weight AI could actually weaken the model companies while making the infrastructure layer much bigger. More open models mean more companies running inference. More inference means more GPUs. More GPUs mean more HBM, optical transceivers, switches, data centers and power. That is bullish for Nvidia Nebius, Micron, Broadcom , Marvell and Applied Optoelectronics over the long run. So my take is that the current semi selloff is being driven mostly by macro uncertainty, higher oil, rising yields, Fed fears, tariffs, crowded positioning and questions around the return on hyperscaler capex. The underlying AI infrastructure thesis has not suddenly broken. We are not broadly seeing hyperscalers cancel GPU orders, slash capex, abandon data center projects or report that AI demand has collapsed. What has changed is the valuation investors are willing to pay while the macro environment remains unstable. The market is lowering the price it is willing to pay for semiconductor growth but is not necessarily saying that growth is gone. And while Jensen’s open weight push may be bad for OpenAI and Anthropic, it could be one of the best things possible for the AI ecosystem over the long run because it creates more models, more developers, more competition and ultimately much more demand for the infrastructure underneath all of it. Nothing about the AI thesis has changed for me, so I will be going shopping and taking advantage of this sale while the market is selling everything together. I am an analyst at Milk Road Pro, and if you want to see exactly what I am buying, you can join for just $1 using the link below.

Melvin

180,578 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat