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Adam Livingston

@AdamBLiv • 82,586 subscribers

The Bitcoin Wizard | Author of The Great Harvest | @BitcoinForCorps | Analysis @Swan | Advisor @saturn_credit | MSTR + MTPLF + ASST HODLER |

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Strategy. 640,808 Bitcoin. Total acquisition cost $47.7 billion. Acquired at an average of $74k per coin. From ZERO to $71.3 billion of Bitcoin in 5 years. I cannot fathom being bearish on this company.

Strategy. 640,808 Bitcoin. Total acquisition cost $47.7 billion. Acquired at an average of $74k per coin. From ZERO to $71.3 billion of Bitcoin in 5 years. I cannot fathom being bearish on this company.

2,253,903 Aufrufe

Want to know something MIND BLOWING? Warren Buffett bought $183 BILLION in T-Bills in Q3 2025. Michael Saylor bought 42,706 Bitcoin in Q3 2025. Those T-Bills will lose value at ~2% per year with 6% M2 money supply inflation. Even with we adjust the PURCHASING POWER DESTRUCTION of the US Dollar, and settle with a REAL 24% Bitcoin CAGR... This is the result of Saylor's Q3 Bitcoin buys vs. Buffett's Q3 T-Bill buys. Buffett's net worth will be a footnote next to Saylor's.

Want to know something MIND BLOWING? Warren Buffett bought $183 BILLION in T-Bills in Q3 2025. Michael Saylor bought 42,706 Bitcoin in Q3 2025. Those T-Bills will lose value at ~2% per year with 6% M2 money supply inflation. Even with we adjust the PURCHASING POWER DESTRUCTION of the US Dollar, and settle with a REAL 24% Bitcoin CAGR... This is the result of Saylor's Q3 Bitcoin buys vs. Buffett's Q3 T-Bill buys. Buffett's net worth will be a footnote next to Saylor's.

1,130,623 Aufrufe

🔥THE SIMPLE PATH TO $1,000 MSTR🔥 I modeled Strategy buying BTC at its current 2026 pace of 1,822 BTC per business day all the way through EOY 2027. Assumptions: BTC goes from $77K to $275K ($275k is the Power Law trend price EOY 2027, not moonboi nonsense) Every purchase is funded with 100% STRC issuance STRC costs 11.5% Strategy sells BTC every month to pay the dividend The cool part about this is that it shows what happens if STRC adoption stays flat from here, when in reality it is scaling quickly. Starting point: 843,738 BTC $13.52B preferred $8.21B debt 384.2M diluted shares Result by Dec 2027: Gross BTC bought: 743,246 BTC sold for dividends: 66,942 Net BTC added: 676,304 Ending stack: 1,520,042 BTC CEBE/share: 146K sats → 251K sats CEBE NAV/share: $112.56 → $691.01 If the market keeps paying today’s 1.48x price-to-CEBE multiple, the common stock projects to: $166.63 → $1,022.75 So the “crippling” 11.5% cost of capital ends up forcing monthly BTC sales of only 66.9K BTC total, while the machine inhales 743K BTC gross. Wall Street built a preferred-stock blood bank for a Bitcoin black hole, and the black hole is still hungry. Boom. Not hard. Bitcoin reverts back to trend price and Strategy stays on the pace they're on. $1,000 MSTR. If this math is even directionally right, people are grotesquely underestimating what happens when scarce collateral is funded by infinite boomer paper.

🔥THE SIMPLE PATH TO $1,000 MSTR🔥 I modeled Strategy buying BTC at its current 2026 pace of 1,822 BTC per business day all the way through EOY 2027. Assumptions: BTC goes from $77K to $275K ($275k is the Power Law trend price EOY 2027, not moonboi nonsense) Every purchase is funded with 100% STRC issuance STRC costs 11.5% Strategy sells BTC every month to pay the dividend The cool part about this is that it shows what happens if STRC adoption stays flat from here, when in reality it is scaling quickly. Starting point: 843,738 BTC $13.52B preferred $8.21B debt 384.2M diluted shares Result by Dec 2027: Gross BTC bought: 743,246 BTC sold for dividends: 66,942 Net BTC added: 676,304 Ending stack: 1,520,042 BTC CEBE/share: 146K sats → 251K sats CEBE NAV/share: $112.56 → $691.01 If the market keeps paying today’s 1.48x price-to-CEBE multiple, the common stock projects to: $166.63 → $1,022.75 So the “crippling” 11.5% cost of capital ends up forcing monthly BTC sales of only 66.9K BTC total, while the machine inhales 743K BTC gross. Wall Street built a preferred-stock blood bank for a Bitcoin black hole, and the black hole is still hungry. Boom. Not hard. Bitcoin reverts back to trend price and Strategy stays on the pace they're on. $1,000 MSTR. If this math is even directionally right, people are grotesquely underestimating what happens when scarce collateral is funded by infinite boomer paper.

53,920 Aufrufe

🚀ASST TO $700 PER SHARE?!?🚀 YOU THINK I'M JOKING? THINK AGAIN, BUCKO. Current ASST snapshot: BTC holdings: 15,000.5 BTC BTC price: $80,593 Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Total debt: $10M Preferred outstanding: $495.95M Debt + preferred: $505.95M Amplification ratio: 41.9% Current stock price: $15.85 Now here’s the model, and this isn't MOONBOY NONSENSE, kids. This is with Bitcoin at $750k in 2036, not $1 million in 2034. ASST maintains their current 41.9% amplification ratio for 10 years. Translation for normal people: For every $1.00 of Bitcoin NAV, ASST keeps roughly $0.419 of senior claims through debt/preferred financing. The bears hear that and immediately start sweating through a Men’s Wearhouse suit. But this is the actual machine. As Bitcoin rises, the Bitcoin NAV rises. When the NAV rises, the old preferred stack becomes smaller relative to the treasury. So ASST issues more SATA to keep amplification at 41.9%. That new SATA capital buys more Bitcoin. Then Bitcoin goes up again. Then the NAV goes up again. Then the amplification ratio drops again. Then they issue more SATA again. Then they buy more Bitcoin again. This is how you turn a balance sheet into a legally registered orange crocodile. Now we add the funding mix: 75% of new Bitcoin accumulation comes from SATA. 25% comes from issuing common stock. And the common stock is issued at 1.2x EV mNAV. Meaning they are selling equity at a 20% premium to the enterprise value of the Bitcoin stack. That matters. Because issuing common below NAV is financial self-harm. Issuing common above NAV is accretive treasury sorcery. Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% per year for 10 years. BTC price goes from: $80,593 today to roughly: $750,579 in year 10 That is a 9.3x move in Bitcoin. Now what happens to ASST? Starting BTC stack: 15,000.5 BTC Projected year 10 BTC stack: 143,425 BTC That is 9.6x more Bitcoin. Starting Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Projected year 10 Bitcoin NAV: $107.65B That is 89x larger. Now the bears will say: “BUT THE PREFERREDS!” Yes, Carl. The preferreds are the point. Senior claims rise from $505.95M to $45.11B because the model intentionally keeps amplification at 41.9%. That sounds terrifying until you remember the Bitcoin NAV grew to $107.65B. The stack got bigger. The senior claims got bigger. The common equity claim got bigger too. This is where CEBE comes in. CEBE = Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure. It answers the only question that matters: After debt and preferred holders get their claim, how much Bitcoin exposure does the common shareholder really own? Today: Gross BPS: 20,222 sats CEBE/share: 11,759 sats Year 10: Gross BPS: 95,380 sats CEBE/share: 55,416 sats That means common-equity Bitcoin exposure per share rises about 4.7x. Even after common issuance. Even after maintaining the preferred stack. Even after the bears finish their sacred ritual of screaming “DILUTION” into a spreadsheet they opened sideways. Now the share count. Current implied diluted shares: 74.2M Projected year 10 shares: 150.4M So yes, the share count roughly doubles in this model. But the Bitcoin stack goes 9.6x. This is the entire game. If Bitcoin holdings grow much faster than shares outstanding, the common shareholder’s Bitcoin exposure goes up. The bears think all issuance is bad because they learned finance from a Yahoo message board during a divorce. The actual question is: Does issuance increase Bitcoin per share after senior claims? In this model, yes. Now the stock price. Strict 1.2x EV mNAV model gets ASST to about: $559/share But if we anchor the model to today’s actual ASST price of $15.85, the same growth path gets you to roughly: $696/share Call it $700. There it is. ASST to $700 per share is not “vibes.” It is a model. BTC compounds at 25%. SATA funds 75% of accumulation. Common funds 25% at 1.2x EV mNAV. Amplification stays at 41.9%. BTC stack grows from 15,000 BTC to 143,425 BTC. Bitcoin NAV goes from $1.21B to $107.65B. CEBE/share goes from 11,759 sats to 55,416 sats. The stock goes from $15.85 to roughly $700. This is why small Bitcoin treasury companies are so insane. Strategy is the Death Star. ASST is the weird little orange lab experiment in the basement where someone accidentally discovers corporate finance methamphetamine. Tiny denominator. Preferred financing. Bitcoin accumulation. Premium equity issuance. CEBE expansion. A compounding treasury loop. The bear case is that dilution kills the common. The bull case is that accretive dilution plus preferred financing creates a Bitcoin-per-share machine that eats capital markets and leaves behind a pile of traumatized short sellers asking why their model still says “book value.” ASST to $700? If the machine works, yes. If Bitcoin does 25% CAGR, absolutely possible. If SATA scales and common gets issued above NAV, the goblin gets fed. And once the goblin gets fed, the spreadsheet starts looking like it was written by Saylor, Dylan LeClair, and a sleep-deprived Austrian economist locked inside a treasury dashboard with three Celsius energy drinks. This is not financial advice. This is FINANCIAL ENTERTAINMENT:

🚀ASST TO $700 PER SHARE?!?🚀 YOU THINK I'M JOKING? THINK AGAIN, BUCKO. Current ASST snapshot: BTC holdings: 15,000.5 BTC BTC price: $80,593 Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Total debt: $10M Preferred outstanding: $495.95M Debt + preferred: $505.95M Amplification ratio: 41.9% Current stock price: $15.85 Now here’s the model, and this isn't MOONBOY NONSENSE, kids. This is with Bitcoin at $750k in 2036, not $1 million in 2034. ASST maintains their current 41.9% amplification ratio for 10 years. Translation for normal people: For every $1.00 of Bitcoin NAV, ASST keeps roughly $0.419 of senior claims through debt/preferred financing. The bears hear that and immediately start sweating through a Men’s Wearhouse suit. But this is the actual machine. As Bitcoin rises, the Bitcoin NAV rises. When the NAV rises, the old preferred stack becomes smaller relative to the treasury. So ASST issues more SATA to keep amplification at 41.9%. That new SATA capital buys more Bitcoin. Then Bitcoin goes up again. Then the NAV goes up again. Then the amplification ratio drops again. Then they issue more SATA again. Then they buy more Bitcoin again. This is how you turn a balance sheet into a legally registered orange crocodile. Now we add the funding mix: 75% of new Bitcoin accumulation comes from SATA. 25% comes from issuing common stock. And the common stock is issued at 1.2x EV mNAV. Meaning they are selling equity at a 20% premium to the enterprise value of the Bitcoin stack. That matters. Because issuing common below NAV is financial self-harm. Issuing common above NAV is accretive treasury sorcery. Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% per year for 10 years. BTC price goes from: $80,593 today to roughly: $750,579 in year 10 That is a 9.3x move in Bitcoin. Now what happens to ASST? Starting BTC stack: 15,000.5 BTC Projected year 10 BTC stack: 143,425 BTC That is 9.6x more Bitcoin. Starting Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Projected year 10 Bitcoin NAV: $107.65B That is 89x larger. Now the bears will say: “BUT THE PREFERREDS!” Yes, Carl. The preferreds are the point. Senior claims rise from $505.95M to $45.11B because the model intentionally keeps amplification at 41.9%. That sounds terrifying until you remember the Bitcoin NAV grew to $107.65B. The stack got bigger. The senior claims got bigger. The common equity claim got bigger too. This is where CEBE comes in. CEBE = Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure. It answers the only question that matters: After debt and preferred holders get their claim, how much Bitcoin exposure does the common shareholder really own? Today: Gross BPS: 20,222 sats CEBE/share: 11,759 sats Year 10: Gross BPS: 95,380 sats CEBE/share: 55,416 sats That means common-equity Bitcoin exposure per share rises about 4.7x. Even after common issuance. Even after maintaining the preferred stack. Even after the bears finish their sacred ritual of screaming “DILUTION” into a spreadsheet they opened sideways. Now the share count. Current implied diluted shares: 74.2M Projected year 10 shares: 150.4M So yes, the share count roughly doubles in this model. But the Bitcoin stack goes 9.6x. This is the entire game. If Bitcoin holdings grow much faster than shares outstanding, the common shareholder’s Bitcoin exposure goes up. The bears think all issuance is bad because they learned finance from a Yahoo message board during a divorce. The actual question is: Does issuance increase Bitcoin per share after senior claims? In this model, yes. Now the stock price. Strict 1.2x EV mNAV model gets ASST to about: $559/share But if we anchor the model to today’s actual ASST price of $15.85, the same growth path gets you to roughly: $696/share Call it $700. There it is. ASST to $700 per share is not “vibes.” It is a model. BTC compounds at 25%. SATA funds 75% of accumulation. Common funds 25% at 1.2x EV mNAV. Amplification stays at 41.9%. BTC stack grows from 15,000 BTC to 143,425 BTC. Bitcoin NAV goes from $1.21B to $107.65B. CEBE/share goes from 11,759 sats to 55,416 sats. The stock goes from $15.85 to roughly $700. This is why small Bitcoin treasury companies are so insane. Strategy is the Death Star. ASST is the weird little orange lab experiment in the basement where someone accidentally discovers corporate finance methamphetamine. Tiny denominator. Preferred financing. Bitcoin accumulation. Premium equity issuance. CEBE expansion. A compounding treasury loop. The bear case is that dilution kills the common. The bull case is that accretive dilution plus preferred financing creates a Bitcoin-per-share machine that eats capital markets and leaves behind a pile of traumatized short sellers asking why their model still says “book value.” ASST to $700? If the machine works, yes. If Bitcoin does 25% CAGR, absolutely possible. If SATA scales and common gets issued above NAV, the goblin gets fed. And once the goblin gets fed, the spreadsheet starts looking like it was written by Saylor, Dylan LeClair, and a sleep-deprived Austrian economist locked inside a treasury dashboard with three Celsius energy drinks. This is not financial advice. This is FINANCIAL ENTERTAINMENT:

65,833 Aufrufe

Elon Musk’s $1 Billion TSLA share buyback barely moves the needle. $1B into Tesla stock reduces shares outstanding by 0.07% - a rounding error. $1B into Bitcoin at today’s price buys ~8,800 BTC. At 35% CAGR, that grows to $4.5B in 5 years. One path is cosmetic slop for OPTICS. The other is generational. The age of opting for share buybacks instead of Bitcoin will inevitably end.

Elon Musk’s $1 Billion TSLA share buyback barely moves the needle. $1B into Tesla stock reduces shares outstanding by 0.07% - a rounding error. $1B into Bitcoin at today’s price buys ~8,800 BTC. At 35% CAGR, that grows to $4.5B in 5 years. One path is cosmetic slop for OPTICS. The other is generational. The age of opting for share buybacks instead of Bitcoin will inevitably end.

195,727 Aufrufe

Why I like buying MSTR over IBIT: IBIT = 1:1 Bitcoin exposure. MSTR = 1:1 Bitcoin exposure PLUS consistent growth in Bitcoin per share. BTC grows at whatever CAGR the market gives you. MSTR grows BTC holdings per share on top of that. That’s convexity. That’s leverage without liquidation. That’s why I buy MSTR over IBIT. In a world where exposure is free, I want the asset that increases my exposure every year. 30% BTC CAGR and 10% BTC Yield gets you 2.58x outperformance over a decade. $100k into IBIT: $1,378,600 after 10 years $100k into MSTR: $3,560,000 after 10 years I'll take a 35.6x over a 13.8x. 158% outperformance.

Why I like buying MSTR over IBIT: IBIT = 1:1 Bitcoin exposure. MSTR = 1:1 Bitcoin exposure PLUS consistent growth in Bitcoin per share. BTC grows at whatever CAGR the market gives you. MSTR grows BTC holdings per share on top of that. That’s convexity. That’s leverage without liquidation. That’s why I buy MSTR over IBIT. In a world where exposure is free, I want the asset that increases my exposure every year. 30% BTC CAGR and 10% BTC Yield gets you 2.58x outperformance over a decade. $100k into IBIT: $1,378,600 after 10 years $100k into MSTR: $3,560,000 after 10 years I'll take a 35.6x over a 13.8x. 158% outperformance.

131,929 Aufrufe

Michael Saylor and Strategy are driving all of the Bitcoin out of circulation. Since August 11, 2020, Strategy has acquired 714,644 Bitcoin. That is 355.9 Bitcoin per day. And they are not slowing down. In fact, they are speeding up. The blue line is the share of Strategy's share of the remaining mineable supply, and this is only assuming their historical accumulation pace. At this pace, in 2045 they will have over 3.2 million Bitcoin and over 15.2% of the terminal Bitcoin supply. And don't forget: With more capital, their creditworthiness improves. With better creditworthiness, the better the borrowing ability. The better borrowing terms/ability, the faster the accumulation. Strategy is structurally unassailable, and if you don't secure your portion of the network... ...you will only be able to rent exposure. Tick tock.

Michael Saylor and Strategy are driving all of the Bitcoin out of circulation. Since August 11, 2020, Strategy has acquired 714,644 Bitcoin. That is 355.9 Bitcoin per day. And they are not slowing down. In fact, they are speeding up. The blue line is the share of Strategy's share of the remaining mineable supply, and this is only assuming their historical accumulation pace. At this pace, in 2045 they will have over 3.2 million Bitcoin and over 15.2% of the terminal Bitcoin supply. And don't forget: With more capital, their creditworthiness improves. With better creditworthiness, the better the borrowing ability. The better borrowing terms/ability, the faster the accumulation. Strategy is structurally unassailable, and if you don't secure your portion of the network... ...you will only be able to rent exposure. Tick tock.

65,839 Aufrufe

Strategy vs. the top corporate treasuries over the next 20 years. BTC at a 35% CAGR vs. 8% USD debasement. Strategy is becoming a company of totally unparalleled financial strength.

Strategy vs. the top corporate treasuries over the next 20 years. BTC at a 35% CAGR vs. 8% USD debasement. Strategy is becoming a company of totally unparalleled financial strength.

122,363 Aufrufe

Gold still goes to zero against MSTR LOL.

Gold still goes to zero against MSTR LOL.

62,390 Aufrufe

Bitcoin Power Law December 31st, 2026 Prices: Resistance line: $683,259 Linear regression fit: $199,379 Support line: $70,742 Thoughts on this model? Seems to be a GREAT time to ACCUMULATE.

Bitcoin Power Law December 31st, 2026 Prices: Resistance line: $683,259 Linear regression fit: $199,379 Support line: $70,742 Thoughts on this model? Seems to be a GREAT time to ACCUMULATE.

58,142 Aufrufe

Bitcoin vs. Silver vs. Gold since January 1st, 2015: Silver: 405% Gold: 283% Bitcoin: 27,701% Even ignoring the first 6 years of Bitcoin's existence for the crybabies who whine about the timeframe comparison... ...gold and silver drastically underperform the APEX ASSET. BITCOIN IS INEVITABLE.

Bitcoin vs. Silver vs. Gold since January 1st, 2015: Silver: 405% Gold: 283% Bitcoin: 27,701% Even ignoring the first 6 years of Bitcoin's existence for the crybabies who whine about the timeframe comparison... ...gold and silver drastically underperform the APEX ASSET. BITCOIN IS INEVITABLE.

74,583 Aufrufe

Inflation is now at 3% and the government calls this "healthy". You’d have ≈41.2% of your original purchasing power left after 30 years. That means 58.8% of your purchasing power is destroyed by “only” 3% inflation over 30 years. In simple terms, what costs $100 today would cost about $243 in 30 years, and your money would buy less than half of what it used to. And remember, true inflation is much more insidious than this. M2 money supply expansion is more than DOUBLE this "healthy" inflation figure. This is why you must buy Bitcoin and store your wealth in something incorruptible. The livelihood of you and your family depends on it.

Inflation is now at 3% and the government calls this "healthy". You’d have ≈41.2% of your original purchasing power left after 30 years. That means 58.8% of your purchasing power is destroyed by “only” 3% inflation over 30 years. In simple terms, what costs $100 today would cost about $243 in 30 years, and your money would buy less than half of what it used to. And remember, true inflation is much more insidious than this. M2 money supply expansion is more than DOUBLE this "healthy" inflation figure. This is why you must buy Bitcoin and store your wealth in something incorruptible. The livelihood of you and your family depends on it.

96,544 Aufrufe

🔥MSTR VS. THE MAGNIFICENT 7🔥 Strategy will be the most valuable company in the world. Latest cash cushions (USD billions): Microsoft: $102.0 B Alphabet: $98.5 B Amazon: $94.2 B Nvidia: $60.6 B Apple: $54.7 B Meta: $44.4 B Tesla: $41.6 B Strategy BTC reserve: $62.5 B Strategy’s stack of Bitcoin now tops the cash war-chests of Apple, Meta and Tesla, and sits between Nvidia and Amazon. Mag 7 cash looks big until you do the one math they’re allergic to. Purchasing power math: Cash is a melting ice cube at 6% inflation. Strategy’s reserve is an asset compounding at 30% (even if you haircut it, the spread matters). Real return spread = ~24% per year. That means Strategy’s war chest a GROWTH ENGINE. 20-year compression: Mag 7 cash sitting still loses ~70% of its purchasing power. (1 / 1.06^20 ≈ 0.31) Strategy’s reserve in REAL terms GROWS BY 50x. ( (1.30 / 1.06)^20 ≈ 50 ) Microsoft can have $100B cash, fine. In two decades, that’s the buying power of $31B in today’s dollars. Strategy’s $62.5B turns into ~$3.1T in today’s dollars, assuming the spread holds. And that’s before the real unfair advantage kicks in: Cash can’t be rehypothecated into an empire without political, regulatory, and shareholder limits. A compounding reserve can be used as collateral, capital formation, refinancing, acquisition currency, and liquidity backstop, without shrinking the core reserve. Will the Mag 7 continue to add cash to fight the decay? Absolutely. But Strategy will, more importantly, continue to add Bitcoin to outrun the monetary death spiral. Mag 7 is “operating cash.” Strategy is “strategic collateral.” When your treasury compounds faster than your competitors’ revenues, you stop competing with companies, you start competing with sovereign balance sheets. The Mag 7 doesn’t stand a chance because they’re playing defense with melting dollars while Strategy is playing offense with compounding capital.

🔥MSTR VS. THE MAGNIFICENT 7🔥 Strategy will be the most valuable company in the world. Latest cash cushions (USD billions): Microsoft: $102.0 B Alphabet: $98.5 B Amazon: $94.2 B Nvidia: $60.6 B Apple: $54.7 B Meta: $44.4 B Tesla: $41.6 B Strategy BTC reserve: $62.5 B Strategy’s stack of Bitcoin now tops the cash war-chests of Apple, Meta and Tesla, and sits between Nvidia and Amazon. Mag 7 cash looks big until you do the one math they’re allergic to. Purchasing power math: Cash is a melting ice cube at 6% inflation. Strategy’s reserve is an asset compounding at 30% (even if you haircut it, the spread matters). Real return spread = ~24% per year. That means Strategy’s war chest a GROWTH ENGINE. 20-year compression: Mag 7 cash sitting still loses ~70% of its purchasing power. (1 / 1.06^20 ≈ 0.31) Strategy’s reserve in REAL terms GROWS BY 50x. ( (1.30 / 1.06)^20 ≈ 50 ) Microsoft can have $100B cash, fine. In two decades, that’s the buying power of $31B in today’s dollars. Strategy’s $62.5B turns into ~$3.1T in today’s dollars, assuming the spread holds. And that’s before the real unfair advantage kicks in: Cash can’t be rehypothecated into an empire without political, regulatory, and shareholder limits. A compounding reserve can be used as collateral, capital formation, refinancing, acquisition currency, and liquidity backstop, without shrinking the core reserve. Will the Mag 7 continue to add cash to fight the decay? Absolutely. But Strategy will, more importantly, continue to add Bitcoin to outrun the monetary death spiral. Mag 7 is “operating cash.” Strategy is “strategic collateral.” When your treasury compounds faster than your competitors’ revenues, you stop competing with companies, you start competing with sovereign balance sheets. The Mag 7 doesn’t stand a chance because they’re playing defense with melting dollars while Strategy is playing offense with compounding capital.

46,862 Aufrufe

MSTR Price Model w/ STRC issuance: Ran the CEBE model on the STRC flywheel. Assumptions: • STRC buys 3,000 BTC/week • BTC compounds +25%/yr for 10 years • Zero new BTC acquired MSTR issuance (lol) Year 10 output: BTC ≈ $626k MSTR ≈ $3,476 BTC held ≈ 2.28M Preferred stack ≈ $398B Shares ≈ 382M mNAV ≈ 1.30x Result: MSTR/BTC ratio ends ~2.85x higher than today. CEBE is a simple way to translate Strategy’s balance sheet into “Bitcoin-equity per share.” You start with the company’s total Bitcoin, then subtract the Bitcoin-equivalent of all senior claims that sit ahead of common equity, mainly debt plus preferred minus cash, converted into BTC at the current BTC price. What’s left is the BTC that economically belongs to common shareholders, then you divide by the share count to get CEBE (BTC per share). Once you have CEBE, you can map it back into a modeled stock price by multiplying CEBE × BTC price × mNAV, where mNAV is the market’s premium or discount to the underlying BTC-equity per share.

MSTR Price Model w/ STRC issuance: Ran the CEBE model on the STRC flywheel. Assumptions: • STRC buys 3,000 BTC/week • BTC compounds +25%/yr for 10 years • Zero new BTC acquired MSTR issuance (lol) Year 10 output: BTC ≈ $626k MSTR ≈ $3,476 BTC held ≈ 2.28M Preferred stack ≈ $398B Shares ≈ 382M mNAV ≈ 1.30x Result: MSTR/BTC ratio ends ~2.85x higher than today. CEBE is a simple way to translate Strategy’s balance sheet into “Bitcoin-equity per share.” You start with the company’s total Bitcoin, then subtract the Bitcoin-equivalent of all senior claims that sit ahead of common equity, mainly debt plus preferred minus cash, converted into BTC at the current BTC price. What’s left is the BTC that economically belongs to common shareholders, then you divide by the share count to get CEBE (BTC per share). Once you have CEBE, you can map it back into a modeled stock price by multiplying CEBE × BTC price × mNAV, where mNAV is the market’s premium or discount to the underlying BTC-equity per share.

29,262 Aufrufe

XRP goes to ZERO against Bitcoin. THERE IS NO SECOND BEST.

XRP goes to ZERO against Bitcoin. THERE IS NO SECOND BEST.

64,946 Aufrufe

Peter Schiff Imagine doing a victory lap with one good year after getting SMACKED by Bitcoin for over a decade straight 🤣🤣🤣

Peter Schiff Imagine doing a victory lap with one good year after getting SMACKED by Bitcoin for over a decade straight 🤣🤣🤣

37,612 Aufrufe

🔥METAPLANET MOON MATH🔥 Metaplanet had a 568.2% BTC Yield last year. Their small size helped. Even assuming they never trade at a huge multiple, and assuming a much lower BTC Yield, the returns are still ridiculous over the next 5 years. 1× mNAV returns with a 75 % BTC Yield + 30 % Bitcoin CAGR over the next 10 years are flat-out insane: Year 0: 35,102 BTC, $2.64 Year 1: 61,428 BTC, $6 Year 2: 107,500 BTC, $14 Year 3: 188,125 BTC, $31 Year 4: 329,218 BTC, $71 Year 5: 576,132 BTC, $161 Year 6: 1,008,231 BTC, $366 Year 7: 1,764,405 BTC, $833 Year 8: 3,087,708 BTC, $1,894 Year 9: 5,403,489 BTC, $4,310 Year 10: 9,456,106 BTC, $9,804 Halfway through the decade gets you as 61x here with those inputs. Lots of unknowns with this trade, keep in mind that they aim to have 210,000 BTC by end of 2027 and this is projecting about half that with 107,500. 75% BTC Yield for 10 years also will not happen. If you look at the results from this input, years 5-7 is where it starts to get ridiculous. Strategy was able to achieve more than Metaplanet's Year 5 number in a harder currency and by trailblazing... but getting around 1 million Bitcoin by year 6 will be much tougher with prices being higher past 2030. W/ the 75% BTC yield input I think this is a somewhat reasonable result for the first 5 years. Still small enough for plenty of yield. Of course, you could imagine a multiple. Or an even higher BTC Yield initially, then lower. Or a steeper BTC CAGR. Adjust whatever inputs you want. All I know... We’re going a LOT higher, kids. $MPJPY

🔥METAPLANET MOON MATH🔥 Metaplanet had a 568.2% BTC Yield last year. Their small size helped. Even assuming they never trade at a huge multiple, and assuming a much lower BTC Yield, the returns are still ridiculous over the next 5 years. 1× mNAV returns with a 75 % BTC Yield + 30 % Bitcoin CAGR over the next 10 years are flat-out insane: Year 0: 35,102 BTC, $2.64 Year 1: 61,428 BTC, $6 Year 2: 107,500 BTC, $14 Year 3: 188,125 BTC, $31 Year 4: 329,218 BTC, $71 Year 5: 576,132 BTC, $161 Year 6: 1,008,231 BTC, $366 Year 7: 1,764,405 BTC, $833 Year 8: 3,087,708 BTC, $1,894 Year 9: 5,403,489 BTC, $4,310 Year 10: 9,456,106 BTC, $9,804 Halfway through the decade gets you as 61x here with those inputs. Lots of unknowns with this trade, keep in mind that they aim to have 210,000 BTC by end of 2027 and this is projecting about half that with 107,500. 75% BTC Yield for 10 years also will not happen. If you look at the results from this input, years 5-7 is where it starts to get ridiculous. Strategy was able to achieve more than Metaplanet's Year 5 number in a harder currency and by trailblazing... but getting around 1 million Bitcoin by year 6 will be much tougher with prices being higher past 2030. W/ the 75% BTC yield input I think this is a somewhat reasonable result for the first 5 years. Still small enough for plenty of yield. Of course, you could imagine a multiple. Or an even higher BTC Yield initially, then lower. Or a steeper BTC CAGR. Adjust whatever inputs you want. All I know... We’re going a LOT higher, kids. $MPJPY

30,335 Aufrufe

You actually sold a generational wealth position in MSTR at the bottom? Pathetic! This is you:

You actually sold a generational wealth position in MSTR at the bottom? Pathetic! This is you:

15,521 Aufrufe

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🔥WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT MSTR - STRC DEPEG + BITCOIN CRASH!🔥 MSTR is now down -28% over the last month. The armchair critics are running rampant. The anime profile pic anonymous trader goblins are running around acting like they can outmaneuver a mega-genius billionaire. The Strategy conversation needs NUANCE. Here I discuss the STRC depeg, MSTR crashing, and what it means for the future:

Adam Livingston

51,087 Aufrufe • vor 1 Tag

MSTR from $149 to $14,368 dollars per share is BEARISH. Assumptions: $2B/month preferred issuance (they're already doing this) 11.5% preferred cost (they never lower the rate, lol) 30% BTC CAGR (power law CAGR) 1.32x CEBE mNAV (multiple NEVER expands) Also, they NEVER issue common stock MSTR to buy more Bitcoin. Start today: 843,738 BTC 573,757 common equity BTC 163,144 CEBE sats/share $158.97 implied price Year 14: 2,064,691 BTC 1,942,234 common equity BTC 374,504 CEBE sats/share $14,368.51 implied price That is 90.4x in the model. Preferred balance goes from $15.5B to $351.5B. Senior claims fall from 270K BTC to 122K BTC. Claim ratio falls from 32.0% to 5.9%. This means they have so much room to issue more credit given this Bitcoin growth rate. Common equity BTC rises by 1.37M BTC. CEBE sats/share rise 129.6%. Shares rise 47.5%. If the Bitcoin treasury compounds faster than the fiat claims, the capital structure becomes a machine that transfers residual Bitcoin exposure back to common equity. This is Ownership Acceleration. CEBE is the scoreboard. Bullish Strategy. See you in 2040:

MSTR from $149 to $14,368 dollars per share is BEARISH. Assumptions: $2B/month preferred issuance (they're already doing this) 11.5% preferred cost (they never lower the rate, lol) 30% BTC CAGR (power law CAGR) 1.32x CEBE mNAV (multiple NEVER expands) Also, they NEVER issue common stock MSTR to buy more Bitcoin. Start today: 843,738 BTC 573,757 common equity BTC 163,144 CEBE sats/share $158.97 implied price Year 14: 2,064,691 BTC 1,942,234 common equity BTC 374,504 CEBE sats/share $14,368.51 implied price That is 90.4x in the model. Preferred balance goes from $15.5B to $351.5B. Senior claims fall from 270K BTC to 122K BTC. Claim ratio falls from 32.0% to 5.9%. This means they have so much room to issue more credit given this Bitcoin growth rate. Common equity BTC rises by 1.37M BTC. CEBE sats/share rise 129.6%. Shares rise 47.5%. If the Bitcoin treasury compounds faster than the fiat claims, the capital structure becomes a machine that transfers residual Bitcoin exposure back to common equity. This is Ownership Acceleration. CEBE is the scoreboard. Bullish Strategy. See you in 2040:

Adam Livingston

82,988 Aufrufe • vor 4 Tagen

Can't be bearish on Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s 4-year moving average is now ~$59,919. One year ago: ~$47,269. That’s +26.8% YoY. Since the February 5th, 2026 drawdown, the 4-year moving average is already up another $2,575, or +4.5%. Bitcoin's 4-year MA has NEVER gone down year over year. The tourists are staring at red candles. The long-term floor is walking uphill like always. Think Bitcoin is “going sideways”? The noise is going sideways. The monetary black hole is still moving up and to the right.

Can't be bearish on Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s 4-year moving average is now ~$59,919. One year ago: ~$47,269. That’s +26.8% YoY. Since the February 5th, 2026 drawdown, the 4-year moving average is already up another $2,575, or +4.5%. Bitcoin's 4-year MA has NEVER gone down year over year. The tourists are staring at red candles. The long-term floor is walking uphill like always. Think Bitcoin is “going sideways”? The noise is going sideways. The monetary black hole is still moving up and to the right.

Adam Livingston

77,790 Aufrufe • vor 7 Tagen

This is unpopular to say, but retail is completely COOKED when it comes to Bitcoin. They will continue to sell their Bitcoin hand over fist to the institutions with lower time preference. Bitcoin will be redistributed according to the Pareto principle just like any other form of wealth. The suits are buying everything that moves. Since the spot ETF launch: IBIT has absorbed ~814,000 BTC-equivalent in net flows. Strategy has added ~655,000 BTC. Combined absorption: ~1.47 MILLION BTC. And people are still panic-posting because the daily candle hurt their feelings. Individuals sell when the chart looks scary. The machines, ETFs, corporate treasuries, advisors, allocators, and capital markets desks keep buying agnostic of vibes. Retail wants emotional confirmation. Institutions want inventory. You are watching Bitcoin migrate from trembling hands to permanent balance sheets in real time. Spot price is the distraction. Absorption is the signal.

This is unpopular to say, but retail is completely COOKED when it comes to Bitcoin. They will continue to sell their Bitcoin hand over fist to the institutions with lower time preference. Bitcoin will be redistributed according to the Pareto principle just like any other form of wealth. The suits are buying everything that moves. Since the spot ETF launch: IBIT has absorbed ~814,000 BTC-equivalent in net flows. Strategy has added ~655,000 BTC. Combined absorption: ~1.47 MILLION BTC. And people are still panic-posting because the daily candle hurt their feelings. Individuals sell when the chart looks scary. The machines, ETFs, corporate treasuries, advisors, allocators, and capital markets desks keep buying agnostic of vibes. Retail wants emotional confirmation. Institutions want inventory. You are watching Bitcoin migrate from trembling hands to permanent balance sheets in real time. Spot price is the distraction. Absorption is the signal.

Adam Livingston

64,390 Aufrufe • vor 7 Tagen

ASST from $17 to $793. From May 1st to May 22, the company has reported $150 million deployed into Bitcoin. Let's assume they raise even less. Let's go with $100m per month with SATA issuance. $100M/month preferred issuance buying BTC, 13% preferred cost, dividends paid via share issuance, CEBE mNAV held flat at 1.7x. Common stock sold to buy Bitcoin, zero common stock issued to buy Bitcoin. 30% BTC CAGR. Starting point: $17.67 ASST 16,500 BTC 14,080 CEBE sats/share 35.3% senior claim drag Year 5: $153/share 61,264 BTC 32,825 CEBE sats/share 8.7x from today Year 10: $793/share 73,320 BTC 45,845 CEBE sats/share 44.9x from today And the psychotic part is the model keeps CEBE mNAV flat at 1.7x the entire time. No multiple expansion required. The senior claim drag falls from 35.3% to 16.7% because fixed fiat claims get slowly humiliated by BTC appreciation. Bitcoin goes up, residual common equity exposure grows, and the bears are left screaming at a spreadsheet like it owes them child support. Bullish ASST.

ASST from $17 to $793. From May 1st to May 22, the company has reported $150 million deployed into Bitcoin. Let's assume they raise even less. Let's go with $100m per month with SATA issuance. $100M/month preferred issuance buying BTC, 13% preferred cost, dividends paid via share issuance, CEBE mNAV held flat at 1.7x. Common stock sold to buy Bitcoin, zero common stock issued to buy Bitcoin. 30% BTC CAGR. Starting point: $17.67 ASST 16,500 BTC 14,080 CEBE sats/share 35.3% senior claim drag Year 5: $153/share 61,264 BTC 32,825 CEBE sats/share 8.7x from today Year 10: $793/share 73,320 BTC 45,845 CEBE sats/share 44.9x from today And the psychotic part is the model keeps CEBE mNAV flat at 1.7x the entire time. No multiple expansion required. The senior claim drag falls from 35.3% to 16.7% because fixed fiat claims get slowly humiliated by BTC appreciation. Bitcoin goes up, residual common equity exposure grows, and the bears are left screaming at a spreadsheet like it owes them child support. Bullish ASST.

Adam Livingston

45,050 Aufrufe • vor 5 Tagen

Saylor succinctly explains difference between MSTR and all the different Strategy credit instruments in 3 minutes. This should be your go-to video for the quick primer for anyone in your life who wants to easily understand the different investments.

Saylor succinctly explains difference between MSTR and all the different Strategy credit instruments in 3 minutes. This should be your go-to video for the quick primer for anyone in your life who wants to easily understand the different investments.

Adam Livingston

1,801,017 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

🔥COFFEEZILLA REFUTED - STRC IS THE GREATEST FIXED INCOME INVESTMENT EVER🔥 Coffeezilla just made an 18 minute CHARACTER ASSASSINATION on Strategy by saying it was comparable to a PONZI SCHEME. He made ZERO arguments in his video, provided ZERO mechanisms by which the structure is fraudulent, and provided ZERO proof that Strategy hasn't disclosed the proper risks. This didn't stop thousands of people from immediately thinking that Strategy is FRAUDELENT. DO BETTER, COFFEEZILLA. THIS IS YOUR RECKONING:

🔥COFFEEZILLA REFUTED - STRC IS THE GREATEST FIXED INCOME INVESTMENT EVER🔥 Coffeezilla just made an 18 minute CHARACTER ASSASSINATION on Strategy by saying it was comparable to a PONZI SCHEME. He made ZERO arguments in his video, provided ZERO mechanisms by which the structure is fraudulent, and provided ZERO proof that Strategy hasn't disclosed the proper risks. This didn't stop thousands of people from immediately thinking that Strategy is FRAUDELENT. DO BETTER, COFFEEZILLA. THIS IS YOUR RECKONING:

Adam Livingston

293,150 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🔥SAYLOR HAS WON: THE BITCOIN SINGULARITY IS HERE🔥 THIS IS THE BIGGEST STORY IN FINANCE. THE BEARS ARE ON LIFE SUPPORT. ASSUMING LAST WEEK'S CAPTURE RATE, STRATEGY JUST RAISED MORE THAN THEIR ENTIRE ANNUAL DIVIDEND OBLIGATION... ...IN ONE TRADING SESSION... ...WITH ZERO MSTR ISSUANCE NEEDED. $1.2 BILLION OF BITCOIN PURCHASED IN ONE DAY. THE CAPITAL FROM THE WORLD'S LARGEST INCOME POOL IS FLOODING INTO BITCOIN. STRC. THE GREATEST SHARPE RATIO IN HISTORY. 11.5% YIELD. 1.7% VOLATILITY. HIGH LIQUIDITY. NOTHING CAN COMPETE WITH SAYLOR'S BITCOIN WAR MACHINE. THIS IS THE GREATEST WEALTH TRANSFER IN THE HISTORY OF HUMANITY:

🔥SAYLOR HAS WON: THE BITCOIN SINGULARITY IS HERE🔥 THIS IS THE BIGGEST STORY IN FINANCE. THE BEARS ARE ON LIFE SUPPORT. ASSUMING LAST WEEK'S CAPTURE RATE, STRATEGY JUST RAISED MORE THAN THEIR ENTIRE ANNUAL DIVIDEND OBLIGATION... ...IN ONE TRADING SESSION... ...WITH ZERO MSTR ISSUANCE NEEDED. $1.2 BILLION OF BITCOIN PURCHASED IN ONE DAY. THE CAPITAL FROM THE WORLD'S LARGEST INCOME POOL IS FLOODING INTO BITCOIN. STRC. THE GREATEST SHARPE RATIO IN HISTORY. 11.5% YIELD. 1.7% VOLATILITY. HIGH LIQUIDITY. NOTHING CAN COMPETE WITH SAYLOR'S BITCOIN WAR MACHINE. THIS IS THE GREATEST WEALTH TRANSFER IN THE HISTORY OF HUMANITY:

Adam Livingston

242,690 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Saylor telling you how you can get 10% tax-free dividends with $STRC: "The tax-equivalent yield is 16-20%. It's like a bank paying you 20% interest. It's because we're built on Bitcoin. A Bitcoin treasury company is the most tax-efficient fixed income generator in the world."

Saylor telling you how you can get 10% tax-free dividends with $STRC: "The tax-equivalent yield is 16-20%. It's like a bank paying you 20% interest. It's because we're built on Bitcoin. A Bitcoin treasury company is the most tax-efficient fixed income generator in the world."

Adam Livingston

1,042,305 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

The Ultimate Beginner's Guide to STRC + MSTR Is Strategy running a ponzi scheme? No. This is video, I take an objective, no-nonsense approach to explaining STRC, MSTR, and the risks behind both. I go into detail of Strategy's strategy so your grandma can understand this perfectly. Whether you want to get paid 11.5% annual dividends, paid monthly with STRC... ...or you want amplified Bitcoin exposure via MSTR. This is the ultimate beginner's guide to understanding Strategy:

The Ultimate Beginner's Guide to STRC + MSTR Is Strategy running a ponzi scheme? No. This is video, I take an objective, no-nonsense approach to explaining STRC, MSTR, and the risks behind both. I go into detail of Strategy's strategy so your grandma can understand this perfectly. Whether you want to get paid 11.5% annual dividends, paid monthly with STRC... ...or you want amplified Bitcoin exposure via MSTR. This is the ultimate beginner's guide to understanding Strategy:

Adam Livingston

211,192 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Bitcoin is remarkably easy. Buy it. Hold it. Never sell it. Get disgustingly rich. Ignore spot price. Watch the 4 year moving average. Bitcoin only goes up and to the right. See you all in 2030.

Bitcoin is remarkably easy. Buy it. Hold it. Never sell it. Get disgustingly rich. Ignore spot price. Watch the 4 year moving average. Bitcoin only goes up and to the right. See you all in 2030.

Adam Livingston

51,113 Aufrufe • vor 12 Tagen

If you get sad at Bitcoin's price going down, you are a high time preference little RAT. Bitcoin's 2-Year Moving Average, year by year: 2013: +1,393% 2014: +247% 2015: +10% 2016: +6% 2017: +442% 2018: +154% 2019: +29% 2020: +24% 2021: +216% 2022: +29% 2023: -25% 2024: +66% 2025: +77% One negative year in a decade and a half. The volatility is the toll. Up and to the right is the road.

If you get sad at Bitcoin's price going down, you are a high time preference little RAT. Bitcoin's 2-Year Moving Average, year by year: 2013: +1,393% 2014: +247% 2015: +10% 2016: +6% 2017: +442% 2018: +154% 2019: +29% 2020: +24% 2021: +216% 2022: +29% 2023: -25% 2024: +66% 2025: +77% One negative year in a decade and a half. The volatility is the toll. Up and to the right is the road.

Adam Livingston

51,743 Aufrufe • vor 13 Tagen

🔥WHY I AM EVEN MORE BULLISH ON STRIVE (ASST) - TOTAL, UTTER, COMPLETE BITCOIN BUYING DOMINATION🔥 I could not possibly be more bullish on ASST. Here I break down the recent performance of SATA + ASST, and why I believe ASST will go to $100 sooner rather than later. I think this is a $1.2 billion company that will become worth $120 billion in relatively short order. THIS ISN'T YOUR GRANDMA'S BITCOIN TREASURY COMPANY, KIDS. I AM GIGA-BULLISH:

🔥WHY I AM EVEN MORE BULLISH ON STRIVE (ASST) - TOTAL, UTTER, COMPLETE BITCOIN BUYING DOMINATION🔥 I could not possibly be more bullish on ASST. Here I break down the recent performance of SATA + ASST, and why I believe ASST will go to $100 sooner rather than later. I think this is a $1.2 billion company that will become worth $120 billion in relatively short order. THIS ISN'T YOUR GRANDMA'S BITCOIN TREASURY COMPANY, KIDS. I AM GIGA-BULLISH:

Adam Livingston

22,953 Aufrufe • vor 6 Tagen

🔥THE SIMPLE PATH TO $1,000 MSTR🔥 I modeled Strategy buying BTC at its current 2026 pace of 1,822 BTC per business day all the way through EOY 2027. Assumptions: BTC goes from $77K to $275K ($275k is the Power Law trend price EOY 2027, not moonboi nonsense) Every purchase is funded with 100% STRC issuance STRC costs 11.5% Strategy sells BTC every month to pay the dividend The cool part about this is that it shows what happens if STRC adoption stays flat from here, when in reality it is scaling quickly. Starting point: 843,738 BTC $13.52B preferred $8.21B debt 384.2M diluted shares Result by Dec 2027: Gross BTC bought: 743,246 BTC sold for dividends: 66,942 Net BTC added: 676,304 Ending stack: 1,520,042 BTC CEBE/share: 146K sats → 251K sats CEBE NAV/share: $112.56 → $691.01 If the market keeps paying today’s 1.48x price-to-CEBE multiple, the common stock projects to: $166.63 → $1,022.75 So the “crippling” 11.5% cost of capital ends up forcing monthly BTC sales of only 66.9K BTC total, while the machine inhales 743K BTC gross. Wall Street built a preferred-stock blood bank for a Bitcoin black hole, and the black hole is still hungry. Boom. Not hard. Bitcoin reverts back to trend price and Strategy stays on the pace they're on. $1,000 MSTR. If this math is even directionally right, people are grotesquely underestimating what happens when scarce collateral is funded by infinite boomer paper.

🔥THE SIMPLE PATH TO $1,000 MSTR🔥 I modeled Strategy buying BTC at its current 2026 pace of 1,822 BTC per business day all the way through EOY 2027. Assumptions: BTC goes from $77K to $275K ($275k is the Power Law trend price EOY 2027, not moonboi nonsense) Every purchase is funded with 100% STRC issuance STRC costs 11.5% Strategy sells BTC every month to pay the dividend The cool part about this is that it shows what happens if STRC adoption stays flat from here, when in reality it is scaling quickly. Starting point: 843,738 BTC $13.52B preferred $8.21B debt 384.2M diluted shares Result by Dec 2027: Gross BTC bought: 743,246 BTC sold for dividends: 66,942 Net BTC added: 676,304 Ending stack: 1,520,042 BTC CEBE/share: 146K sats → 251K sats CEBE NAV/share: $112.56 → $691.01 If the market keeps paying today’s 1.48x price-to-CEBE multiple, the common stock projects to: $166.63 → $1,022.75 So the “crippling” 11.5% cost of capital ends up forcing monthly BTC sales of only 66.9K BTC total, while the machine inhales 743K BTC gross. Wall Street built a preferred-stock blood bank for a Bitcoin black hole, and the black hole is still hungry. Boom. Not hard. Bitcoin reverts back to trend price and Strategy stays on the pace they're on. $1,000 MSTR. If this math is even directionally right, people are grotesquely underestimating what happens when scarce collateral is funded by infinite boomer paper.

Adam Livingston

53,920 Aufrufe • vor 17 Tagen

Bitcoin is going to $10 million The bears are idiots Stack sats

Bitcoin is going to $10 million The bears are idiots Stack sats

Adam Livingston

31,474 Aufrufe • vor 11 Tagen

SAYLOR NOW PAYING 11% CASH DIVIDENDS WITH STRC - TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE? They told you 11% paid monthly must be a scam. They said it was “too risky.” They said “where are the cash flows?” Then they went back to buying government bonds from a country that can’t pay its bills without printing. In this video, I break down STRC, Michael Saylor’s income vehicle paying 11% cash, paid monthly, and why it’s making traditional finance people short-circuit. This is what happens when a product: • Already has decades of dividend coverage on the balance sheet • Doesn’t need refinancing windows to stay alive • Doesn’t depend on consumers, confidence, or GDP fairy tales • Pays real cash while fiat melts quietly Meanwhile, the same critics call it “dangerous” while lending money to: • Governments running permanent deficits • Corporations drowning in rollover debt • Pensions powered by optimism and vibes We’re going to walk through why STRC is being priced like junk credit despite behaving nothing like it, how cash-backed income breaks the modern risk framework, and why people trained on spreadsheets panic when money actually already exists.

SAYLOR NOW PAYING 11% CASH DIVIDENDS WITH STRC - TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE? They told you 11% paid monthly must be a scam. They said it was “too risky.” They said “where are the cash flows?” Then they went back to buying government bonds from a country that can’t pay its bills without printing. In this video, I break down STRC, Michael Saylor’s income vehicle paying 11% cash, paid monthly, and why it’s making traditional finance people short-circuit. This is what happens when a product: • Already has decades of dividend coverage on the balance sheet • Doesn’t need refinancing windows to stay alive • Doesn’t depend on consumers, confidence, or GDP fairy tales • Pays real cash while fiat melts quietly Meanwhile, the same critics call it “dangerous” while lending money to: • Governments running permanent deficits • Corporations drowning in rollover debt • Pensions powered by optimism and vibes We’re going to walk through why STRC is being priced like junk credit despite behaving nothing like it, how cash-backed income breaks the modern risk framework, and why people trained on spreadsheets panic when money actually already exists.

Adam Livingston

354,897 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

I fully believe ASST is going to $100 in short order. Here I use the CEBE framework to totally declaw the Strive bear case and project out what the daily SATA dividends are going to do for ASST shareholders:

I fully believe ASST is going to $100 in short order. Here I use the CEBE framework to totally declaw the Strive bear case and project out what the daily SATA dividends are going to do for ASST shareholders:

Adam Livingston

15,448 Aufrufe • vor 5 Tagen

🚀ASST TO $700 PER SHARE?!?🚀 YOU THINK I'M JOKING? THINK AGAIN, BUCKO. Current ASST snapshot: BTC holdings: 15,000.5 BTC BTC price: $80,593 Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Total debt: $10M Preferred outstanding: $495.95M Debt + preferred: $505.95M Amplification ratio: 41.9% Current stock price: $15.85 Now here’s the model, and this isn't MOONBOY NONSENSE, kids. This is with Bitcoin at $750k in 2036, not $1 million in 2034. ASST maintains their current 41.9% amplification ratio for 10 years. Translation for normal people: For every $1.00 of Bitcoin NAV, ASST keeps roughly $0.419 of senior claims through debt/preferred financing. The bears hear that and immediately start sweating through a Men’s Wearhouse suit. But this is the actual machine. As Bitcoin rises, the Bitcoin NAV rises. When the NAV rises, the old preferred stack becomes smaller relative to the treasury. So ASST issues more SATA to keep amplification at 41.9%. That new SATA capital buys more Bitcoin. Then Bitcoin goes up again. Then the NAV goes up again. Then the amplification ratio drops again. Then they issue more SATA again. Then they buy more Bitcoin again. This is how you turn a balance sheet into a legally registered orange crocodile. Now we add the funding mix: 75% of new Bitcoin accumulation comes from SATA. 25% comes from issuing common stock. And the common stock is issued at 1.2x EV mNAV. Meaning they are selling equity at a 20% premium to the enterprise value of the Bitcoin stack. That matters. Because issuing common below NAV is financial self-harm. Issuing common above NAV is accretive treasury sorcery. Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% per year for 10 years. BTC price goes from: $80,593 today to roughly: $750,579 in year 10 That is a 9.3x move in Bitcoin. Now what happens to ASST? Starting BTC stack: 15,000.5 BTC Projected year 10 BTC stack: 143,425 BTC That is 9.6x more Bitcoin. Starting Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Projected year 10 Bitcoin NAV: $107.65B That is 89x larger. Now the bears will say: “BUT THE PREFERREDS!” Yes, Carl. The preferreds are the point. Senior claims rise from $505.95M to $45.11B because the model intentionally keeps amplification at 41.9%. That sounds terrifying until you remember the Bitcoin NAV grew to $107.65B. The stack got bigger. The senior claims got bigger. The common equity claim got bigger too. This is where CEBE comes in. CEBE = Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure. It answers the only question that matters: After debt and preferred holders get their claim, how much Bitcoin exposure does the common shareholder really own? Today: Gross BPS: 20,222 sats CEBE/share: 11,759 sats Year 10: Gross BPS: 95,380 sats CEBE/share: 55,416 sats That means common-equity Bitcoin exposure per share rises about 4.7x. Even after common issuance. Even after maintaining the preferred stack. Even after the bears finish their sacred ritual of screaming “DILUTION” into a spreadsheet they opened sideways. Now the share count. Current implied diluted shares: 74.2M Projected year 10 shares: 150.4M So yes, the share count roughly doubles in this model. But the Bitcoin stack goes 9.6x. This is the entire game. If Bitcoin holdings grow much faster than shares outstanding, the common shareholder’s Bitcoin exposure goes up. The bears think all issuance is bad because they learned finance from a Yahoo message board during a divorce. The actual question is: Does issuance increase Bitcoin per share after senior claims? In this model, yes. Now the stock price. Strict 1.2x EV mNAV model gets ASST to about: $559/share But if we anchor the model to today’s actual ASST price of $15.85, the same growth path gets you to roughly: $696/share Call it $700. There it is. ASST to $700 per share is not “vibes.” It is a model. BTC compounds at 25%. SATA funds 75% of accumulation. Common funds 25% at 1.2x EV mNAV. Amplification stays at 41.9%. BTC stack grows from 15,000 BTC to 143,425 BTC. Bitcoin NAV goes from $1.21B to $107.65B. CEBE/share goes from 11,759 sats to 55,416 sats. The stock goes from $15.85 to roughly $700. This is why small Bitcoin treasury companies are so insane. Strategy is the Death Star. ASST is the weird little orange lab experiment in the basement where someone accidentally discovers corporate finance methamphetamine. Tiny denominator. Preferred financing. Bitcoin accumulation. Premium equity issuance. CEBE expansion. A compounding treasury loop. The bear case is that dilution kills the common. The bull case is that accretive dilution plus preferred financing creates a Bitcoin-per-share machine that eats capital markets and leaves behind a pile of traumatized short sellers asking why their model still says “book value.” ASST to $700? If the machine works, yes. If Bitcoin does 25% CAGR, absolutely possible. If SATA scales and common gets issued above NAV, the goblin gets fed. And once the goblin gets fed, the spreadsheet starts looking like it was written by Saylor, Dylan LeClair, and a sleep-deprived Austrian economist locked inside a treasury dashboard with three Celsius energy drinks. This is not financial advice. This is FINANCIAL ENTERTAINMENT:

🚀ASST TO $700 PER SHARE?!?🚀 YOU THINK I'M JOKING? THINK AGAIN, BUCKO. Current ASST snapshot: BTC holdings: 15,000.5 BTC BTC price: $80,593 Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Total debt: $10M Preferred outstanding: $495.95M Debt + preferred: $505.95M Amplification ratio: 41.9% Current stock price: $15.85 Now here’s the model, and this isn't MOONBOY NONSENSE, kids. This is with Bitcoin at $750k in 2036, not $1 million in 2034. ASST maintains their current 41.9% amplification ratio for 10 years. Translation for normal people: For every $1.00 of Bitcoin NAV, ASST keeps roughly $0.419 of senior claims through debt/preferred financing. The bears hear that and immediately start sweating through a Men’s Wearhouse suit. But this is the actual machine. As Bitcoin rises, the Bitcoin NAV rises. When the NAV rises, the old preferred stack becomes smaller relative to the treasury. So ASST issues more SATA to keep amplification at 41.9%. That new SATA capital buys more Bitcoin. Then Bitcoin goes up again. Then the NAV goes up again. Then the amplification ratio drops again. Then they issue more SATA again. Then they buy more Bitcoin again. This is how you turn a balance sheet into a legally registered orange crocodile. Now we add the funding mix: 75% of new Bitcoin accumulation comes from SATA. 25% comes from issuing common stock. And the common stock is issued at 1.2x EV mNAV. Meaning they are selling equity at a 20% premium to the enterprise value of the Bitcoin stack. That matters. Because issuing common below NAV is financial self-harm. Issuing common above NAV is accretive treasury sorcery. Now assume Bitcoin compounds at 25% per year for 10 years. BTC price goes from: $80,593 today to roughly: $750,579 in year 10 That is a 9.3x move in Bitcoin. Now what happens to ASST? Starting BTC stack: 15,000.5 BTC Projected year 10 BTC stack: 143,425 BTC That is 9.6x more Bitcoin. Starting Bitcoin NAV: $1.21B Projected year 10 Bitcoin NAV: $107.65B That is 89x larger. Now the bears will say: “BUT THE PREFERREDS!” Yes, Carl. The preferreds are the point. Senior claims rise from $505.95M to $45.11B because the model intentionally keeps amplification at 41.9%. That sounds terrifying until you remember the Bitcoin NAV grew to $107.65B. The stack got bigger. The senior claims got bigger. The common equity claim got bigger too. This is where CEBE comes in. CEBE = Common Equity Bitcoin Exposure. It answers the only question that matters: After debt and preferred holders get their claim, how much Bitcoin exposure does the common shareholder really own? Today: Gross BPS: 20,222 sats CEBE/share: 11,759 sats Year 10: Gross BPS: 95,380 sats CEBE/share: 55,416 sats That means common-equity Bitcoin exposure per share rises about 4.7x. Even after common issuance. Even after maintaining the preferred stack. Even after the bears finish their sacred ritual of screaming “DILUTION” into a spreadsheet they opened sideways. Now the share count. Current implied diluted shares: 74.2M Projected year 10 shares: 150.4M So yes, the share count roughly doubles in this model. But the Bitcoin stack goes 9.6x. This is the entire game. If Bitcoin holdings grow much faster than shares outstanding, the common shareholder’s Bitcoin exposure goes up. The bears think all issuance is bad because they learned finance from a Yahoo message board during a divorce. The actual question is: Does issuance increase Bitcoin per share after senior claims? In this model, yes. Now the stock price. Strict 1.2x EV mNAV model gets ASST to about: $559/share But if we anchor the model to today’s actual ASST price of $15.85, the same growth path gets you to roughly: $696/share Call it $700. There it is. ASST to $700 per share is not “vibes.” It is a model. BTC compounds at 25%. SATA funds 75% of accumulation. Common funds 25% at 1.2x EV mNAV. Amplification stays at 41.9%. BTC stack grows from 15,000 BTC to 143,425 BTC. Bitcoin NAV goes from $1.21B to $107.65B. CEBE/share goes from 11,759 sats to 55,416 sats. The stock goes from $15.85 to roughly $700. This is why small Bitcoin treasury companies are so insane. Strategy is the Death Star. ASST is the weird little orange lab experiment in the basement where someone accidentally discovers corporate finance methamphetamine. Tiny denominator. Preferred financing. Bitcoin accumulation. Premium equity issuance. CEBE expansion. A compounding treasury loop. The bear case is that dilution kills the common. The bull case is that accretive dilution plus preferred financing creates a Bitcoin-per-share machine that eats capital markets and leaves behind a pile of traumatized short sellers asking why their model still says “book value.” ASST to $700? If the machine works, yes. If Bitcoin does 25% CAGR, absolutely possible. If SATA scales and common gets issued above NAV, the goblin gets fed. And once the goblin gets fed, the spreadsheet starts looking like it was written by Saylor, Dylan LeClair, and a sleep-deprived Austrian economist locked inside a treasury dashboard with three Celsius energy drinks. This is not financial advice. This is FINANCIAL ENTERTAINMENT:

Adam Livingston

65,833 Aufrufe • vor 28 Tagen

🔥STRK: THE BEST VALUE IN BITCOIN - GET PAID TO WAIT TO GET RICH?!?🔥 Everyone is staring at STRC for the yield and STRF for the seniority, while STRK is sitting in the corner like a chemically enhanced preferred stock with a concealed MSTR call option taped under its trench coat. In this video, I break down why STRK might be one of the most slept-on securities in the Strategy capital stack, how its yield compares to STRC and STRF, and why the conversion option could become absurdly valuable if Strategy keeps compounding Bitcoin exposure per share. STRC is income. STRF is senior income. STRK might be income with a Saylor-powered moon launcher attached. Not financial advice. I am just a man watching the fiat retirement complex get folded into a Bitcoin meat grinder:

🔥STRK: THE BEST VALUE IN BITCOIN - GET PAID TO WAIT TO GET RICH?!?🔥 Everyone is staring at STRC for the yield and STRF for the seniority, while STRK is sitting in the corner like a chemically enhanced preferred stock with a concealed MSTR call option taped under its trench coat. In this video, I break down why STRK might be one of the most slept-on securities in the Strategy capital stack, how its yield compares to STRC and STRF, and why the conversion option could become absurdly valuable if Strategy keeps compounding Bitcoin exposure per share. STRC is income. STRF is senior income. STRK might be income with a Saylor-powered moon launcher attached. Not financial advice. I am just a man watching the fiat retirement complex get folded into a Bitcoin meat grinder:

Adam Livingston

23,480 Aufrufe • vor 10 Tagen

🔥MSTR WILL BE WORTH TRILLIONS - SHAREHOLDERS ARE THE NEW WEALTHY ELITE🔥 In this video, I break down why Strategy, ticker MSTR, will become one the most important public company on Earth. Most people look at MSTR and scream about mNAV, dilution, debt, preferreds, and premiums like they just discovered a calculator in a gas station bathroom. But the real question is simple: How much Bitcoin economically belongs to common shareholders after senior claims? When you factor in STRC, preferred capital, senior claims, common issuance, and Bitcoin appreciation, the upside starts looking genuinely absurd. In this video, I break down: Why Bitcoin looks historically cheap versus its 4-year moving average How Strategy’s current Bitcoin stack could be worth $1 trillion by 2030 How STRC can function as a Bitcoin accumulation engine Why Strategy has multiple paths to a trillion-dollar valuation ...and why MSTR shareholders will become the new wealthy elite:

🔥MSTR WILL BE WORTH TRILLIONS - SHAREHOLDERS ARE THE NEW WEALTHY ELITE🔥 In this video, I break down why Strategy, ticker MSTR, will become one the most important public company on Earth. Most people look at MSTR and scream about mNAV, dilution, debt, preferreds, and premiums like they just discovered a calculator in a gas station bathroom. But the real question is simple: How much Bitcoin economically belongs to common shareholders after senior claims? When you factor in STRC, preferred capital, senior claims, common issuance, and Bitcoin appreciation, the upside starts looking genuinely absurd. In this video, I break down: Why Bitcoin looks historically cheap versus its 4-year moving average How Strategy’s current Bitcoin stack could be worth $1 trillion by 2030 How STRC can function as a Bitcoin accumulation engine Why Strategy has multiple paths to a trillion-dollar valuation ...and why MSTR shareholders will become the new wealthy elite:

Adam Livingston

23,673 Aufrufe • vor 12 Tagen