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What’s more improbable than hitting the lottery? Hitting it twice. On the same day. Both Deel and Kalshi were pre launch investments I happened to make on the same day in 2019. Kalshi is now valued at $11B. Both are now decacorns. Grateful to the founders for building through... show more

Justin Mateen

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24,507 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Sometimes lightning really can strike twice in one day. From the 175-company YC class in March 2019, I made just two personal investments, both on the same day- founded by visionary male/female co-founders: Kalshi and Deel. Six years later, Deel is a decacorn valued at $17.3 billion, and Kalshi would be a decacorn too if they raised today. Kalshi (Tarek Mansour & Luana Lopes Lara ) and deel (Alex Bouaziz & ) were both pre-launch when I invested at $10 million post for Kalshi and $15 million post for Deel. The reasons you back a founder can sometimes be unusual, but when you recognize a familiar pattern, it’s best not to overthink it. 🎥 Here’s Tarek Mansour recounting why I wanted to take Kalshi’s entire seed note and why I decided to invest so quickly. The answer might surprise you: Tarek Mansour Luana Lopes Lara Kalshi

Sometimes lightning really can strike twice in one day. From the 175-company YC class in March 2019, I made just two personal investments, both on the same day- founded by visionary male/female co-founders: Kalshi and Deel. Six years later, Deel is a decacorn valued at $17.3 billion, and Kalshi would be a decacorn too if they raised today. Kalshi (Tarek Mansour & Luana Lopes Lara ) and deel (Alex Bouaziz & ) were both pre-launch when I invested at $10 million post for Kalshi and $15 million post for Deel. The reasons you back a founder can sometimes be unusual, but when you recognize a familiar pattern, it’s best not to overthink it. 🎥 Here’s Tarek Mansour recounting why I wanted to take Kalshi’s entire seed note and why I decided to invest so quickly. The answer might surprise you: Tarek Mansour Luana Lopes Lara Kalshi

Justin Mateen

361,851 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

🔮 WATCH: Kalshi founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara join Dan Primack on a new episode of THE AXIOS SHOW. They cover: • How to root out insider traders • What makes prediction markets different from gambling • The Trump family and the upcoming midterms

🔮 WATCH: Kalshi founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara join Dan Primack on a new episode of THE AXIOS SHOW. They cover: • How to root out insider traders • What makes prediction markets different from gambling • The Trump family and the upcoming midterms

Axios

3,511,976 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

E174: Tarek Mansour - Launching the First Regulated Perps In The U.S and building the next generation of financial markets Tarek Mansour is the co-founder and CEO of Kalshi, the first regulated prediction market exchange in the US, valued at $22 Billion. He grew up in Lebanon with a single mom, studied at MIT, worked at Citadel, and spent 6 years years building a company most people ignored before it finally took off. We talk about what it actually takes to not give up, why markets are better at finding truth than experts, why Kalshi is launching the first regulated Perps in the US, and how his team is building what he calls the next generation of financial markets. Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:54 Urgency 3:11 Anime 4:53 Who is Tarek? 7:02 Mathematics & Certainty 9:10 Tarek's chip on the shoulder 13:33 Partnerships: Trezor Bitwise 15:19 Resilience 16:31 Entrepreneurship is Therapy 18:23 The startup emotional rollercoaster 22:16 Showing up for 2000 days with no results 24:45 First time Founder advantage 26:40 When Kalshi almost made it, but did not 29:54 Partnerships: KAST 31:19 Focus Inputs, Not Results 33:16 The Kalshi beginnings story 36:00 The True Innovation Of Prediction Markets 38:28 How Prediction Markets Revolutionize The Media 41:37 Prediction Markets and Hedging explained simply 44:55 Leverage In Prediction Markets 47:16 Partnerships: Jupiter Ethena 48:00 Insider Trading 51:19 Insider Trading Rules enforcement: who is responsible? 55:26 How Kalshi spots Suspicious Behavior 56:59 Tarek's Honest View On Crypto 59:41 Launching the first Regulated Perps In The U.S 1:00:30 What Does Regulated Perps Mean? 1:02:22 Was Kalshi perps launch inspired by Hyperliquid? 1:03:41 Competition 1:05:58 Kalshi Endgame 1:07:06 What is Kalshi doing with the billions of $ they raised 1:08:31 Happiness and engagement 1:13:08 One Thing Tarek Should Let Go Of 1:14:18 Closing Thoughts

E174: Tarek Mansour - Launching the First Regulated Perps In The U.S and building the next generation of financial markets Tarek Mansour is the co-founder and CEO of Kalshi, the first regulated prediction market exchange in the US, valued at $22 Billion. He grew up in Lebanon with a single mom, studied at MIT, worked at Citadel, and spent 6 years years building a company most people ignored before it finally took off. We talk about what it actually takes to not give up, why markets are better at finding truth than experts, why Kalshi is launching the first regulated Perps in the US, and how his team is building what he calls the next generation of financial markets. Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:54 Urgency 3:11 Anime 4:53 Who is Tarek? 7:02 Mathematics & Certainty 9:10 Tarek's chip on the shoulder 13:33 Partnerships: Trezor Bitwise 15:19 Resilience 16:31 Entrepreneurship is Therapy 18:23 The startup emotional rollercoaster 22:16 Showing up for 2000 days with no results 24:45 First time Founder advantage 26:40 When Kalshi almost made it, but did not 29:54 Partnerships: KAST 31:19 Focus Inputs, Not Results 33:16 The Kalshi beginnings story 36:00 The True Innovation Of Prediction Markets 38:28 How Prediction Markets Revolutionize The Media 41:37 Prediction Markets and Hedging explained simply 44:55 Leverage In Prediction Markets 47:16 Partnerships: Jupiter Ethena 48:00 Insider Trading 51:19 Insider Trading Rules enforcement: who is responsible? 55:26 How Kalshi spots Suspicious Behavior 56:59 Tarek's Honest View On Crypto 59:41 Launching the first Regulated Perps In The U.S 1:00:30 What Does Regulated Perps Mean? 1:02:22 Was Kalshi perps launch inspired by Hyperliquid? 1:03:41 Competition 1:05:58 Kalshi Endgame 1:07:06 What is Kalshi doing with the billions of $ they raised 1:08:31 Happiness and engagement 1:13:08 One Thing Tarek Should Let Go Of 1:14:18 Closing Thoughts

MR SHIFT 🦁

596,102 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Long time listener, first time caller - I’m thrilled to share that I’ve joined Kalshi to build out the Product function! Prediction markets are incredibly powerful primitives that are just starting to be explored, much like how crypto was 10 years ago. Anyone can make a market for the outcome of an event, creating a much more balanced and reliable source of information than traditional news or polls. Kalshi is an unstoppable force. It single-handedly created the US prediction market category through sheer willpower and relentless regulatory effort (just google "Kalshi sues CFTC"). It’s a better source of truth for the presidential election than traditional polls, it pioneered "mention markets," created a platform for anyone to earn on their knowledge, and has set the pace of innovation in financial markets over the last few years. I can’t think of two better people to lead the way than Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara. As soon as I met them I knew they had what it took to build a generational company and that I wanted to build it with them. My mission here is to lead and scale our Product function, helping us build the next generation of trading products and markets to make this vision a reality. Everybody is an expert on something, and Kalshi is the definitive platform to trade on that knowledge. The markets agree - this week alone, we deepened our partnership with Solana on Monday, announced our Series E raise from Paradigm, Sequoia Capital, a16z and more on Tuesday, launched our partnership with CNN to reshape the future of news Wednesday, and announced our partnership with CNBC Thursday. And this is just a normal week for us. To use my favorite Coinbase phrase - it's still day 1. P.S. We are hiring. If you are interested in building what has the potential to be the most important consumer opportunity of our times, message me.

Long time listener, first time caller - I’m thrilled to share that I’ve joined Kalshi to build out the Product function! Prediction markets are incredibly powerful primitives that are just starting to be explored, much like how crypto was 10 years ago. Anyone can make a market for the outcome of an event, creating a much more balanced and reliable source of information than traditional news or polls. Kalshi is an unstoppable force. It single-handedly created the US prediction market category through sheer willpower and relentless regulatory effort (just google "Kalshi sues CFTC"). It’s a better source of truth for the presidential election than traditional polls, it pioneered "mention markets," created a platform for anyone to earn on their knowledge, and has set the pace of innovation in financial markets over the last few years. I can’t think of two better people to lead the way than Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara. As soon as I met them I knew they had what it took to build a generational company and that I wanted to build it with them. My mission here is to lead and scale our Product function, helping us build the next generation of trading products and markets to make this vision a reality. Everybody is an expert on something, and Kalshi is the definitive platform to trade on that knowledge. The markets agree - this week alone, we deepened our partnership with Solana on Monday, announced our Series E raise from Paradigm, Sequoia Capital, a16z and more on Tuesday, launched our partnership with CNN to reshape the future of news Wednesday, and announced our partnership with CNBC Thursday. And this is just a normal week for us. To use my favorite Coinbase phrase - it's still day 1. P.S. We are hiring. If you are interested in building what has the potential to be the most important consumer opportunity of our times, message me.

Catherine Sullivan

68,837 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

.Tarek Mansour on Kalshi: “The thing that was unique about us is we never pivoted. It was always Kalshi. We were dragged by the idea. I wasn't the type that wanted to be an entrepreneur. I think if you re-roll the dice multiple times, I'd probably just be a trader or risk manager. I would not be an entrepreneur. But the idea was so glaring in front of us that we just had to do it.” Successful founders will often tell you that the idea pulled them, not the other way around. Kalshi walked through the desert for six years. Most teams reset the idea once the desert gets long enough. They never did, because they were dragged by the idea, not short-term outcomes. When they persevered and became the first regulated prediction market, they compounded to ~95% US market share. The patience to do things right became an advantage, not a constraint. Keep the long game in mind when you feel like you're in the desert.

.Tarek Mansour on Kalshi: “The thing that was unique about us is we never pivoted. It was always Kalshi. We were dragged by the idea. I wasn't the type that wanted to be an entrepreneur. I think if you re-roll the dice multiple times, I'd probably just be a trader or risk manager. I would not be an entrepreneur. But the idea was so glaring in front of us that we just had to do it.” Successful founders will often tell you that the idea pulled them, not the other way around. Kalshi walked through the desert for six years. Most teams reset the idea once the desert gets long enough. They never did, because they were dragged by the idea, not short-term outcomes. When they persevered and became the first regulated prediction market, they compounded to ~95% US market share. The patience to do things right became an advantage, not a constraint. Keep the long game in mind when you feel like you're in the desert.

Alfred Lin

98,106 просмотров • 29 дней назад

Mr Shift: What's the true innovation with prediction markets? Kalshi CEO: There's many ways to answer that question. Um there's the Kalshi piece of it, but then there's the prediction market piece of it, which are not exactly the same. “But the... the true innovation in prediction markets, I think, is this notion, like... and, and I think it has been built through a lot of literature, and then I think the prediction markets have come in our generation, like Kalshi and some of the others have proven it” “The best way to answer like all these most pressing questions is like you have to ask the crowd”

Mr Shift: What's the true innovation with prediction markets? Kalshi CEO: There's many ways to answer that question. Um there's the Kalshi piece of it, but then there's the prediction market piece of it, which are not exactly the same. “But the... the true innovation in prediction markets, I think, is this notion, like... and, and I think it has been built through a lot of literature, and then I think the prediction markets have come in our generation, like Kalshi and some of the others have proven it” “The best way to answer like all these most pressing questions is like you have to ask the crowd”

ShaDow | Clipur.com

23,860 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Kalshi is one of the fastest growing companies on the planet. Last week: - Raised $1BN at $11BN valuation - Partnered with CNN and CNBC This is Tarek’s only interview post this news. - How Polymarket made Kalshi better? - Is Kalshi just sports betting with a new label? - The future of prediction markets? - Messi investing in Kalshi??? Spotify 👉 Youtube 👉 Apple Podcasts 👉 Spice, laughter and my 6 takeaways with Tarek Mansour 👇 Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:56 Why Did Kalshi Need to Raise $1BN 08:35 Why is Kalshi vs Polymarket Such a Fierce Rivalry? 20:48 The Future of Prediction Markets 24:04 Why Does Kalshi Partner with CNN When They Could Replace Them? 27:31 Why Did Tarek Fight For the Rights of his Early Investors So Much? 28:34 What Makes Alfred Lin The Best? 30:56 Does Having Sequoia as an Investor Change the Game? 39:22 Are Teenage Founders Today Emotionally Ready to Lead Companies 41:11 Quick-Fire Round: Celebrity Investors, Relationships with Parents

Kalshi is one of the fastest growing companies on the planet. Last week: - Raised $1BN at $11BN valuation - Partnered with CNN and CNBC This is Tarek’s only interview post this news. - How Polymarket made Kalshi better? - Is Kalshi just sports betting with a new label? - The future of prediction markets? - Messi investing in Kalshi??? Spotify 👉 Youtube 👉 Apple Podcasts 👉 Spice, laughter and my 6 takeaways with Tarek Mansour 👇 Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:56 Why Did Kalshi Need to Raise $1BN 08:35 Why is Kalshi vs Polymarket Such a Fierce Rivalry? 20:48 The Future of Prediction Markets 24:04 Why Does Kalshi Partner with CNN When They Could Replace Them? 27:31 Why Did Tarek Fight For the Rights of his Early Investors So Much? 28:34 What Makes Alfred Lin The Best? 30:56 Does Having Sequoia as an Investor Change the Game? 39:22 Are Teenage Founders Today Emotionally Ready to Lead Companies 41:11 Quick-Fire Round: Celebrity Investors, Relationships with Parents

Harry Stebbings

13,820 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

Alfred Lin (Alfred Lin) shares the relentless path Kalshi has taken to not only create, but to dominate prediction markets Sequoia first invested in 2020. YoY Stats: - Rumored Valuation at $12B - Raised $500M+ total, last round co-led by Sequoia & a16z - Monthly volume up 150x (now at $1B/week) - Est. revenue up 150x - Users up 25x - Active markets up 10x "It's generally not a great idea to sue your regulator unless you have a really strong case & there was a lot of thinking & back & forth about exactly what the calculus was on how we would win.. We felt we had a really strong case, & Tarek (Tarek Mansour) + Luana (Luana Lopes Lara) were fearless.. that's why they were able to propose that we sue."

Alfred Lin (Alfred Lin) shares the relentless path Kalshi has taken to not only create, but to dominate prediction markets Sequoia first invested in 2020. YoY Stats: - Rumored Valuation at $12B - Raised $500M+ total, last round co-led by Sequoia & a16z - Monthly volume up 150x (now at $1B/week) - Est. revenue up 150x - Users up 25x - Active markets up 10x "It's generally not a great idea to sue your regulator unless you have a really strong case & there was a lot of thinking & back & forth about exactly what the calculus was on how we would win.. We felt we had a really strong case, & Tarek (Tarek Mansour) + Luana (Luana Lopes Lara) were fearless.. that's why they were able to propose that we sue."

Molly O’Shea

126,065 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

I BUILT THE FIRST BOT THAT ARBITRAGES BETWEEN POLYMARKET AND KALSHI SIMULTANEOUSLY $100 -> $5,214 in 24 hours 847 trades, zero directional risk polymarket and kalshi are the two biggest prediction markets both trade the same events but their pricing algorithms are different which means their prices drift apart the gaps are small - 3 to 8 c, but they happen constantly if you trade that difference automatically fast thousands of times the math starts working for you the bot spots the gap in milliseconds buys YES on polymarket at $0.61 sells YES on kalshi at $0.67 while people are still looking at the chart the bot already closed the trade and moved on they say arbitrage in prediction markets is impossible they say the spreads are too small they say the market is efficient $5,214 in one night says otherwise

I BUILT THE FIRST BOT THAT ARBITRAGES BETWEEN POLYMARKET AND KALSHI SIMULTANEOUSLY $100 -> $5,214 in 24 hours 847 trades, zero directional risk polymarket and kalshi are the two biggest prediction markets both trade the same events but their pricing algorithms are different which means their prices drift apart the gaps are small - 3 to 8 c, but they happen constantly if you trade that difference automatically fast thousands of times the math starts working for you the bot spots the gap in milliseconds buys YES on polymarket at $0.61 sells YES on kalshi at $0.67 while people are still looking at the chart the bot already closed the trade and moved on they say arbitrage in prediction markets is impossible they say the spreads are too small they say the market is efficient $5,214 in one night says otherwise

zostaff

67,361 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour says the biggest categories in prediction markets may end up being much bigger than sports: "Sports is bigger than it's ever been right now... but it's also a lower percentage than it's ever been." "We're seeing it in politics and financials and crypto and culture." "When we see users coming into the platform, those other categories are showing incredible signs of acceleration." "For me it's inevitable that fast forward a few years, like one or two years, sports is a much smaller percentage of them." Alex Immerman and Santiago Rodriguez on this and more takeaways from the Kalshi Prediction Markets Conference:

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour says the biggest categories in prediction markets may end up being much bigger than sports: "Sports is bigger than it's ever been right now... but it's also a lower percentage than it's ever been." "We're seeing it in politics and financials and crypto and culture." "When we see users coming into the platform, those other categories are showing incredible signs of acceleration." "For me it's inevitable that fast forward a few years, like one or two years, sports is a much smaller percentage of them." Alex Immerman and Santiago Rodriguez on this and more takeaways from the Kalshi Prediction Markets Conference:

a16z

71,210 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Yesterday I lost $300 on my first bet ever on Kalshi. And I got scammed. And I should have won. So I immediately withdrew all my money from the site and blocked it. I was betting on the Bernie Sanders mention market. I bet on a few words he said during the live event. Most of the words were trading at 90%, but Kalshi resolved EVERY SINGLE word to NO. Why? I don' t know. The event was live, Bernie said the words and traders bought Yes. Kalshi has not said a single word since. 24 hours later I still don't know why I lost. I hear Bernie clearly say the words I bet on. A total of $3M+ was wagered on this event, people lost millions against reality. Why is Kalshi doing these sketchy things?

Yesterday I lost $300 on my first bet ever on Kalshi. And I got scammed. And I should have won. So I immediately withdrew all my money from the site and blocked it. I was betting on the Bernie Sanders mention market. I bet on a few words he said during the live event. Most of the words were trading at 90%, but Kalshi resolved EVERY SINGLE word to NO. Why? I don' t know. The event was live, Bernie said the words and traders bought Yes. Kalshi has not said a single word since. 24 hours later I still don't know why I lost. I hear Bernie clearly say the words I bet on. A total of $3M+ was wagered on this event, people lost millions against reality. Why is Kalshi doing these sketchy things?

Car

2,487,617 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

Luana Lopes Lara is the youngest self-made female billionaire at age 29, according to Forbes Magazine. She co-founded Kalshi, the first federally-regulated exchange dedicated to trading on the outcome of future events, like when a musician might release a new album to which candidate will win an election. Lopes Lara told CBS Mornings why she’s passionate about “giving an opportunity for people to make money on what they know” and breaks down some of the safeguards she says are in place to try to prevent insider trading.

Luana Lopes Lara is the youngest self-made female billionaire at age 29, according to Forbes Magazine. She co-founded Kalshi, the first federally-regulated exchange dedicated to trading on the outcome of future events, like when a musician might release a new album to which candidate will win an election. Lopes Lara told CBS Mornings why she’s passionate about “giving an opportunity for people to make money on what they know” and breaks down some of the safeguards she says are in place to try to prevent insider trading.

CBS Mornings

57,117 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

I sat down with the co-founder and CEO of Kalshi (Tarek Mansour), a prediction market reportedly worth over $20 billion. After years of struggle, Kalshi won a regulatory battle, culminating with their successful suit to overturn a CFTC decision, giving them the ability to allow consumers to bet on politics, sports, weather, and more. Tarek shared the history of how he got here and what kind of company he had to build to weather all the uncertainty. I also got a chance to push him on Kalshi’s place in the world and its potential for positive or negative impacts. I was persuaded by his arguments that it can be a big force for good. We closed out by talking about his ideas around company building, hiring, and the future of Kalshi. Hope you enjoy. Timestamps: (0:00) Intro (0:23) Kalshi’s genesis (5:05) Regulation-focused from inception (11:06) Suing the government (18:02) Gambling vs. financial markets (20:58) Defining insider trading (25:38) Incentive structure of the system (32:40) Investing vs. trading (35:31) Using Kalshi for hedging (41:38) On keeping a lean team (44:02) Kalshi’s culture

I sat down with the co-founder and CEO of Kalshi (Tarek Mansour), a prediction market reportedly worth over $20 billion. After years of struggle, Kalshi won a regulatory battle, culminating with their successful suit to overturn a CFTC decision, giving them the ability to allow consumers to bet on politics, sports, weather, and more. Tarek shared the history of how he got here and what kind of company he had to build to weather all the uncertainty. I also got a chance to push him on Kalshi’s place in the world and its potential for positive or negative impacts. I was persuaded by his arguments that it can be a big force for good. We closed out by talking about his ideas around company building, hiring, and the future of Kalshi. Hope you enjoy. Timestamps: (0:00) Intro (0:23) Kalshi’s genesis (5:05) Regulation-focused from inception (11:06) Suing the government (18:02) Gambling vs. financial markets (20:58) Defining insider trading (25:38) Incentive structure of the system (32:40) Investing vs. trading (35:31) Using Kalshi for hedging (41:38) On keeping a lean team (44:02) Kalshi’s culture

Jack Altman

40,320 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

The world’s youngest self-made woman billionaire took on the U.S. government…and won. Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder of Kalshi, opens up about taking on the feds, her billionaire moment, and her Bitcoin story. I really enjoyed this interview and I hope you will too! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Ballerina to in Brazil 03:41 Meeting Her Co-Founder at MIT 09:18 65 Lawyers Said It Was Impossible 13:59 How Kalshi Stops Insider Trading 16:56 The Most Surprising Market on Kalshi 17:32 Why She Sued the U.S. Government 21:00 Why Women Are Joining Prediction Markets 22:25 Her First Bitcoin: A $100 Story 23:49 Becoming the Youngest Female Billionaire 27:16 Advice for Young Women and Founders 29:23 Is the American Dream Still Alive? 32:36 Where Crypto and Prediction Markets Collide 35:48 Kalshi Goes Global 37:33 The Currency Problem No One Talks About 39:06 Are Prediction Markets Actually Right? 40:23 Can You Create Your Own Market? 42:29 The Moment They Almost Gave Up 45:09 What She’d Tell Her Younger Self 46:58 The One Market She Wants to Trade

The world’s youngest self-made woman billionaire took on the U.S. government…and won. Luana Lopes Lara, co-founder of Kalshi, opens up about taking on the feds, her billionaire moment, and her Bitcoin story. I really enjoyed this interview and I hope you will too! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Ballerina to in Brazil 03:41 Meeting Her Co-Founder at MIT 09:18 65 Lawyers Said It Was Impossible 13:59 How Kalshi Stops Insider Trading 16:56 The Most Surprising Market on Kalshi 17:32 Why She Sued the U.S. Government 21:00 Why Women Are Joining Prediction Markets 22:25 Her First Bitcoin: A $100 Story 23:49 Becoming the Youngest Female Billionaire 27:16 Advice for Young Women and Founders 29:23 Is the American Dream Still Alive? 32:36 Where Crypto and Prediction Markets Collide 35:48 Kalshi Goes Global 37:33 The Currency Problem No One Talks About 39:06 Are Prediction Markets Actually Right? 40:23 Can You Create Your Own Market? 42:29 The Moment They Almost Gave Up 45:09 What She’d Tell Her Younger Self 46:58 The One Market She Wants to Trade

Natalie Brunell ⚡️

1,180,077 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

In 1971, the US ran out of money and defaulted on its debts. Now, they didn’t say it that way. But by moving away from the gold standard, money as we understood it ended. I expected the stock market to plunge, but it went on to rise nearly 25%. That surprised me. But when I looked into it, I discovered the exact same thing happened in 1933 and it had the exact same effect. Here’s why.

In 1971, the US ran out of money and defaulted on its debts. Now, they didn’t say it that way. But by moving away from the gold standard, money as we understood it ended. I expected the stock market to plunge, but it went on to rise nearly 25%. That surprised me. But when I looked into it, I discovered the exact same thing happened in 1933 and it had the exact same effect. Here’s why.

Ray Dalio

984,973 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

Mark Zuckerberg is bankrupting a $22 billion startup because they refused to sell to him. The company is Kalshi. They run the largest prediction market in the US. Users bet real money on real-world outcomes. Last year, prediction markets did $28 billion in monthly volume across the industry. This month, they did $220 BILLION. The sector literally 8x'd in a single year. Bernstein now projects the entire prediction market industry will hit $1 TRILLION by 2030. Zuckerberg saw the growth curve coming. Last year, when Kalshi was valued at only $2 billion, he sat down with founder and CEO Tarek Mansour to discuss buying the entire company. Mansour said no. Kalshi went on to raise at $11 billion in December. Then $22 billion in March. It is now pursuing a $40 billion round and openly weighing an IPO. Zuckerberg's response: He walked back to Meta headquarters, took every piece of information he learned in that meeting, and directed a small internal team to build a Kalshi clone from the ground up. Meta's version is called Arena. It uses Llama to generate the questions. Every one of Meta's 3.5 billion daily users will get access. And here's where the plan gets ruthless... Meta is deliberately launching with play money. That single decision lets Zuckerberg dodge every gambling regulator on Earth while he trains billions of users to bet on prediction markets. Meanwhile Kalshi is spending millions fighting state gambling laws, the CFTC, an Illinois sports tax, a Minnesota felony statute, and the Department of Justice. Kalshi is the crash test dummy. Meta is the getaway driver. The moment the regulatory war is settled, Zuckerberg flips the switch. Arena becomes a real-money market, and 3.5 billion users are already trained to use it. Kalshi's user base of a few million cannot compete. This is the exact playbook Meta ran on Snapchat in 2016 when Instagram Stories launched. It is the exact playbook they ran on TikTok in 2020 when Reels launched. It is the exact playbook they ran on Twitter in 2023 when Threads launched. The FTC took Meta to court over this pattern last year and called it "buy or bury." The judge sided with Meta. So the playbook is legally protected. Tarek Mansour walked into a meeting with the most predatory copycat in tech history and gave him the entire pitch deck for the fastest growing product in Silicon Valley. Six months later, Zuckerberg is executing on that intel while Mansour is stuck defending his company in courts across America. Kalshi survived Zuckerberg's offer. But it probably will not survive Zuckerberg's clone. Meta ended Q1 with $81 billion in cash. That is enough to buy every prediction market company on Earth six times over. Zuckerberg is choosing to STEAL them instead because he can, and because the courts already gave him permission. The next 12 months will decide whether Kalshi becomes a $50 billion IPO or a cautionary tale about what happens when a founder says no to Meta. What do you think?

Mark Zuckerberg is bankrupting a $22 billion startup because they refused to sell to him. The company is Kalshi. They run the largest prediction market in the US. Users bet real money on real-world outcomes. Last year, prediction markets did $28 billion in monthly volume across the industry. This month, they did $220 BILLION. The sector literally 8x'd in a single year. Bernstein now projects the entire prediction market industry will hit $1 TRILLION by 2030. Zuckerberg saw the growth curve coming. Last year, when Kalshi was valued at only $2 billion, he sat down with founder and CEO Tarek Mansour to discuss buying the entire company. Mansour said no. Kalshi went on to raise at $11 billion in December. Then $22 billion in March. It is now pursuing a $40 billion round and openly weighing an IPO. Zuckerberg's response: He walked back to Meta headquarters, took every piece of information he learned in that meeting, and directed a small internal team to build a Kalshi clone from the ground up. Meta's version is called Arena. It uses Llama to generate the questions. Every one of Meta's 3.5 billion daily users will get access. And here's where the plan gets ruthless... Meta is deliberately launching with play money. That single decision lets Zuckerberg dodge every gambling regulator on Earth while he trains billions of users to bet on prediction markets. Meanwhile Kalshi is spending millions fighting state gambling laws, the CFTC, an Illinois sports tax, a Minnesota felony statute, and the Department of Justice. Kalshi is the crash test dummy. Meta is the getaway driver. The moment the regulatory war is settled, Zuckerberg flips the switch. Arena becomes a real-money market, and 3.5 billion users are already trained to use it. Kalshi's user base of a few million cannot compete. This is the exact playbook Meta ran on Snapchat in 2016 when Instagram Stories launched. It is the exact playbook they ran on TikTok in 2020 when Reels launched. It is the exact playbook they ran on Twitter in 2023 when Threads launched. The FTC took Meta to court over this pattern last year and called it "buy or bury." The judge sided with Meta. So the playbook is legally protected. Tarek Mansour walked into a meeting with the most predatory copycat in tech history and gave him the entire pitch deck for the fastest growing product in Silicon Valley. Six months later, Zuckerberg is executing on that intel while Mansour is stuck defending his company in courts across America. Kalshi survived Zuckerberg's offer. But it probably will not survive Zuckerberg's clone. Meta ended Q1 with $81 billion in cash. That is enough to buy every prediction market company on Earth six times over. Zuckerberg is choosing to STEAL them instead because he can, and because the courts already gave him permission. The next 12 months will decide whether Kalshi becomes a $50 billion IPO or a cautionary tale about what happens when a founder says no to Meta. What do you think?

Ricardo

1,468,122 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

What's in kalispel? I find it interesting that the TPUSA plane and the CIA/DOD Hades spy plane both flew to kalispel on the day Charlie died? What's in kalispel? Well quite a bit actually. I think we're going to find more... Baron Coleman do they match up for them both to be in kalispel at the same time?

What's in kalispel? I find it interesting that the TPUSA plane and the CIA/DOD Hades spy plane both flew to kalispel on the day Charlie died? What's in kalispel? Well quite a bit actually. I think we're going to find more... Baron Coleman do they match up for them both to be in kalispel at the same time?

Muppet Masher

11,324 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

New podcast episode with Kalshi Cofounder and CEO Tarek Mansour (Tarek Mansour) is live. In this special episode, our host Robert Hackett chats with Tarek bout how prediction markets are enabling people to trade directly on real-world events — from elections to inflation — and what this means for the future of finance and forecasting. Tarek explains why prediction markets aren’t gambling, how regulation has been central to Kalshi’s success, and why the company is embracing crypto and stablecoins as key components of its international strategy. He also discusses lessons learned about policy, product design, and staying compliant while innovating at the frontier. Topics include: → How prediction markets make society "smarter" → The role of regulation in fintech innovation → Why Kalshi started with crypto payments → Lessons from FTX and the importance of compliance → Building consumer trust and network effects → Tarek’s take on productivity, leadership, and even… kombucha Timestamps: 00:00 – Introduction: What are prediction markets, and why now? 01:04 – Kalshi’s mission: making forecasting tradable 01:52 – Why crypto fits into Kalshi’s long-term strategy 03:19 – Going global with stablecoins 05:55 – The long road to regulation and why it mattered 7:51 – Coinbase and Robinhood as role models 08:17 – The Trump trade: direct vs. indirect exposure to events 10:51 – Lessons from FTX and why compliance is a moat 12:06 – How Kalshi monitors markets and prevents manipulation 15:00 – Momentum after the presidential election 16:48 – How policy in DC really works 17:56 – The hidden advantage of being regulated 18:52 – Lightning round: worst advice, productivity habits, and more 21:00 – The importance of process and patience (“The Score Takes Care of Itself”) 22:30 – The smallest hill Tarek will die on

New podcast episode with Kalshi Cofounder and CEO Tarek Mansour (Tarek Mansour) is live. In this special episode, our host Robert Hackett chats with Tarek bout how prediction markets are enabling people to trade directly on real-world events — from elections to inflation — and what this means for the future of finance and forecasting. Tarek explains why prediction markets aren’t gambling, how regulation has been central to Kalshi’s success, and why the company is embracing crypto and stablecoins as key components of its international strategy. He also discusses lessons learned about policy, product design, and staying compliant while innovating at the frontier. Topics include: → How prediction markets make society "smarter" → The role of regulation in fintech innovation → Why Kalshi started with crypto payments → Lessons from FTX and the importance of compliance → Building consumer trust and network effects → Tarek’s take on productivity, leadership, and even… kombucha Timestamps: 00:00 – Introduction: What are prediction markets, and why now? 01:04 – Kalshi’s mission: making forecasting tradable 01:52 – Why crypto fits into Kalshi’s long-term strategy 03:19 – Going global with stablecoins 05:55 – The long road to regulation and why it mattered 7:51 – Coinbase and Robinhood as role models 08:17 – The Trump trade: direct vs. indirect exposure to events 10:51 – Lessons from FTX and why compliance is a moat 12:06 – How Kalshi monitors markets and prevents manipulation 15:00 – Momentum after the presidential election 16:48 – How policy in DC really works 17:56 – The hidden advantage of being regulated 18:52 – Lightning round: worst advice, productivity habits, and more 21:00 – The importance of process and patience (“The Score Takes Care of Itself”) 22:30 – The smallest hill Tarek will die on

a16z crypto

55,170 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

Happy Weekend 🙌 Big news for US crypto traders. Kalshi Perpetual Markets are live. 🔥 Kalshi is the first CFTC-regulated US exchange to offer perps. Onshore, regulated, no offshore grey zone. Available markets: BTC PERP up to 6x, ETH PERP up to 4.5x, plus SOL, XRP, DOGE, LTC, LINK, NEAR, SUI, HYPE, ZEC and more (2 to 3.7x). Volumes are already climbing fast. If you're bullish or bearish on crypto, this is the cleanest regulated way to express it right now. Trade $10 get $10: #Kalshi #CryptoPerps #Bitcoin #Ethereum #PerpetualFutures

Happy Weekend 🙌 Big news for US crypto traders. Kalshi Perpetual Markets are live. 🔥 Kalshi is the first CFTC-regulated US exchange to offer perps. Onshore, regulated, no offshore grey zone. Available markets: BTC PERP up to 6x, ETH PERP up to 4.5x, plus SOL, XRP, DOGE, LTC, LINK, NEAR, SUI, HYPE, ZEC and more (2 to 3.7x). Volumes are already climbing fast. If you're bullish or bearish on crypto, this is the cleanest regulated way to express it right now. Trade $10 get $10: #Kalshi #CryptoPerps #Bitcoin #Ethereum #PerpetualFutures

Dapp Centre

22,645 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Fund of the Year Neo w/ Ali Partovi "First money into Cursor, Cognition and Kalshi. I also give it a vote because 12 months ago it seemed like YC had won the accelerator race but Neo, South Park Commons HFØ. The rebirth of the accelerator model and Neo is impressive." Jason ✨👾SaaStr.Ai✨ Lemkin Love to hear your thoughts on this Michael Truell Tarek Mansour Dave Font Scott Wu

Fund of the Year Neo w/ Ali Partovi "First money into Cursor, Cognition and Kalshi. I also give it a vote because 12 months ago it seemed like YC had won the accelerator race but Neo, South Park Commons HFØ. The rebirth of the accelerator model and Neo is impressive." Jason ✨👾SaaStr.Ai✨ Lemkin Love to hear your thoughts on this Michael Truell Tarek Mansour Dave Font Scott Wu

Harry Stebbings

39,599 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад