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I BUILT THE FIRST BOT THAT ARBITRAGES BETWEEN POLYMARKET AND KALSHI SIMULTANEOUSLY $100 -> $5,214 in 24 hours 847 trades, zero directional risk polymarket and kalshi are the two biggest prediction markets both trade the same events but their pricing algorithms are different which means their prices drift apart...

67,086 次观看 • 4 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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In 2025 I created an Arbitrage Bot for Kalshi Polymarket Opinion The results were actually quite surprising I will share how much I've been able to make using the bot at the end of the thread! But first, how does it even work? 1. The Strategy A lot of the viral trading bots on X for Prediction Markets are trying to trade just within Polymarket, mostly on highly volatile markets. Buying quickly / selling quickly, this works great if you’re a VC with an infinite budget for development and the fastest infrastructure positioned right next to Polymarkets servers, but doesn't work great for regular traders. I knew building a bot here is like trying to out sprint Usain Bolt wearing flip flops So instead if i wanted to make a bot it would have to be doing something I haven't seen anyone else do So after engaging 100% of my brain I remembered how I'd seen many of the same markets when browsing Kalshi that I'd previously seen on Polymarket. If the odds were different I'd actually be able to arbitrage the two platforms. After checking 20 or so pairs I found a few examples where the odds were different, proving my theory. So i started building 2. The Bot I began crafting an algorithm that collects all the Polymarket, Kalshi & Opinion markets and identifies any that are the same. In total that's over 6,000,000 markets, billions of potential combinations, from that i found around 6,000 that match. A lot of markets have the same title, but slight differences in the rules that means an arbitrage is not possible. For example ‘Will Trump meet XYZ person before ABC date’ - many of these exist between Poly Kalshi but Kalshi defines ‘meeting’ as online, or in real life, whilst Polymarket defines it strictly as in real life. To verify the matches I first used an algorithm that sees if the titles / rules are similar, then I feed every one of those potential pairs into an LLM that is prompted to approve / reject the potential match. This part sounds like it should be easy, but the LLMs were all so inconsistent. I’d pass the same market 10 times and it would reject it twice and approve it eight times. After a lot of prompt engineering I finally got it to a stage where it's at least 99% accurate. The bot then recreates locally all the orderbooks for the matched markets and looks for any pairs with YES + NO values of < $1 & calculate how much you can profitably buy of each side ( your EV ) 3. An Example ‘SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap? 900B to 1T' This market exists on both Poly & Opinion, but right now the odds are different. YES / NO 4% / 97% - Polymarket 10% / 92% - Opinion Lets say you told the bot you wanted to trade $100 You’d split it $3.85 into Polymarket YES for 104.743 Shares $96.15 into Opinion NO for 104.743 Shares You spent $100, and you got 104.7 shares of each side And because 1 YES + 1 NO = $1 ( when the markets are identical ) Your expected profit is $4.7, because: value ( 104.7 shares * $1 ) - cost ( $100 ) = profit ( 4.7 Shares / $4.7 ) Then once the odds rebalance, usually a few days to a week, you can sell both sides and use the principal + the profit to take another arbitrage $100 isn't much, but imagine if you did $1000, or $10,000 every few days. Since creating the bot it has been finding around $350,000 in arbitrages from over 5,000 matching market pairs every month. That's more than I could ever take my self Assuming an average of 4% per arb (often more), It would take over $8,750,000 deployed to capture them all simultaneously That's why I initially shared the bot with some sharp sportsbook bettors for commission on their trades, eventually making it a public version that's on AlertPilot for anyone to use. 4. The Longevity Will this work forever? No, eventually a VC will come and eat our free lunch, it will become more competitive and the spreads wont be as high as they are now (+10% at times). My mantra here is just to make the most of it whilst I can, and release consistent updates so that it remains competitive against the competition. I already have a head start in that regard. I will say over the last 3 months of using the bot myself, plus adding traders / syndicates to the platform to trade as well, the amount of Arbitrages found has only increased. In large part no doubt to the huge increase in volume on PM’s, especially Opinion where many of the more profitable arbitrages have been. 5. The Profit So how much did I make? I started with a bankroll of $1,000 as I was skeptical initially how well the bot would work, first week I was able to close two 5% arbs. I then increased my bank roll and started sharing the bot with other traders. Since then I've been averaging five figures every month from my own trades + commissions. Anywhere between 12% to 20% per month in closed arbs, personally. To anyone reading this that wants to arbitraging these markets, i've released a version of the bot on AlertPilot! And for any VCs or betting syndicate that wants to trade these markets, my DMs are open. Aspiring trading bot makers, there is money out there if you can be creative in your strategies Have lots of plans for AlertPilot + the Arbitrage bot going into 2026. Happy new year everybody!

SecureZero is Hiring 

13,638 次观看 • 6 个月前

I asked my bot to read 20 Polymarket quant articles and build me a trading system. One week later: $600 → $20,400. The crazy part? It didn’t just copy the strategies from the articles. It found the edges the authors never mentioned. I gave Claude Opus a simple prompt: “Read these 20 quant articles. Extract every strategy. Then figure out what they’re not saying.” 48 hours later, the bot was live. The articles talked about the usual things: • basic arbitrage • weather markets • simple spreads But the bot looked deeper. It analyzed 847 trades from top wallets, cross-referenced them with article timestamps, and found something interesting: The gap between what quants publish and what they actually trade. Examples: Articles say: wait for 5% mispricing. Top wallets enter at 2.3%. Articles say: avoid volatile markets. Top wallets make 80% of their profits during volatility spikes. Articles say: start small with $100. Successful bots compound 3–6% per trade. So the system ignored the advice. And copied the behavior. Week 1 results • 127 trades executed • 71% win rate • $600 → $20,400 Biggest trade: $4,100 profit on a 15-minute BTC market Funny thing? The articles called those markets “too risky.” The bot saw 18 top wallets entering at the same time. Copytrade → What the bot actually does → scans quant articles for strategy mentions → tracks wallets belonging to the authors → compares what they write vs what they trade → trades the difference The edge isn’t reading quant articles. The edge is watching what happens after they publish them. Most people learn from what traders say. The bot learned from what they hide.

Discover

54,245 次观看 • 4 个月前

CHINESE ENGINEERS JUST WROTE CLAUDE SCRIPT AND TURNED $6.02 INTO $3.3 MILLION ON POLYMARKET Nobody tells you about them and you still think this is a person placing bets manually I guess. Let me disappoint you, this is a fully automated script built by Chinese engineers 100%. This is true. They called it PHANTOM X. It runs completely through Claude. Their account here: Result: $6.02 -> $3,354,000. Win rate 71%. Biggest win: $179,000 (single bet). I’m copying their trades here: (Just added their wallet to TG bot 0xee613b3fc183ee44f9da9c05f53e2da107e3debf, it's so easy) How the bot works: -> It simultaneously tracks thousands of sports markets on Polymarket and Kalshi. -> Finds discrepancies between the platforms. -> Enters positions faster than any human could imo. Just three strategies in one: -- Pairs Trading: the bot sees YES on the Rockets at $0.62 while NO is at $0.41. Total = $1.03 instead of $1.00. That’s a 3% risk-free profit. It enters automatically within milliseconds. -- Sentiment AI: scans Twitter (X) and news in real time. If something big breaks, it recalculates the probability in 2 seconds before the market reacts. -- Calendar + Volatility: 15–20 minutes before the game, volatility spikes. The bot takes positions early and closes after the first major move. Why sports is perfect? Sports O/U markets have clear paired contracts that should total exactly $1.00, but constant deviations create reliable arbitrage. This is exactly how [sovereign2013] built $3.35M. > A human physically cannot monitor 50+ markets at once, react in milliseconds, stay awake 24/7, avoid emotions after losses, and run Z-scores on 60 bars of data. > The bot does all of this in parallel without breaks. Manual trading is dying. The automation era has arrived. Start learning Claude now. If you’re interested in writing your own bot on Polymarket: Comment the word "BOT" Like and repost this post Follow me (so I can message you easly) And within 24 hours I will send you a full manual on how to build a bot that can earn $2,900+/month. Also SAVE this info and article.

slash1s

16,078 次观看 • 3 个月前

i told my bot to read 20 polymarket quant articles and build me a trading system $600 → $20,400 in one week the scary part? it found edges the articles never mentioned gave claude opus 4.6 a simple task: "read these 20 articles from polymarket quants, extract every strategy, find what they're NOT saying, and build me a bot" 48 hours later i had a system running the articles talked about: - arbitrage basics - weather markets - simple spreads but the bot found something else it analyzed 847 trades from top wallets cross-referenced with article timestamps found a pattern nobody wrote about the gap between what quants publish and what they actually trade example: > articles say "wait for 5% mispricing" top wallets enter at 2.3% > articles say "avoid volatile markets" top wallets make 80% of profit during volatility spikes > articles say "start with $100" successful bots compound at 3-6% per trade the bot ignored the public advice copied the actual behavior week 1 results: - 127 trades executed - 71% win rate - $600 → $20,400 biggest win: $4,100 on a 15min BTC marketthe articles said these markets are "too risky" the bot saw 18 top wallets entering simultaneously here's what it actually does: → scans articles for strategy mentions → tracks wallets that publish those articles → compares their written strategy vs actual trades → trades the difference, not the advice the edge isn't reading quant articles the edge is reading what quants do after they publish most people learn from what traders say the bot learned from what they hide am i the only one who thinks public alpha is just exit liquidity?

ZER

206,638 次观看 • 4 个月前