While the cap is indeed going up and he will continue to improve at 21 years old, a Fantilli 5x13-13.5M would be a pretty massive overpayment due to his marginal improvements in his first 3 years.

Only thing I disagree with: dominating in his draft year with Michigan, best player in the NCAA at 18 is completely different to Wright ripping up the OHL

That is a fair point Fantilli was the better prospect and did it against older comp

Fantilli has never popped for me. Feels like low end 1C ceiling

"One player broke out in Year 5 so surely our guy will be the same" Also MacKinnon was 11 months younger by comparison to Fantilli and was on quite shit Colorado teams in his 3rd and 4th season while Fantilli had some pieces in his 2nd and 3rd year.

Do you really think that the comparison is that shallow? Fantilli has the physical traits similiar to Mackinnon. Eventually the tools will prevail. Everything that Fantilli was didn’t disappear when he got to the NHL it just hasn’t materialized yet-

Brady Tkachuk had the same trajectory. Fantilli will hit and if he doesn’t the contract won’t matter because this era in Columbus lives and dies with him. I remember years ago you talked about taking the risk and locking up your young guys. This is the cost of business

Yes locking them up on 8 year contracts and not at AAV’s that immediately make them top 5 highest paid players in the league without yet hitting the 60 point mark. 👍👍👍

Do you realistically see a world where that doesn’t happen? Is it better to trade away his rights and move forward without a centerpiece? Why will Fantillis contract be so much worse when he’ll be making 2/3 of what Carlsson does over the same term?

Fantilli has a better chance to live up to 5x13 than Carlsson does at 5x18

Sure, but again both deals are sizable overpayments. that's the point of the video, I don't act like the Carlsson deal is good.

For every one good take Mike has he follows it up with two bad takes. The gap between Leo and Fantilli really isn't as big as people make it out to be, Fantilli just play for the Blue Jackets and nobody talks about them on a global stage.

And the Anaheim Ducks are a massive franchise that the MHL gravitates around? Cmonnnnn man Carlsson was a couple tiers better this season.

Leo had 8 more points than Adam this year and overall only has 1 more point (yes I know there's a game played difference) Yes Leo is better than him but I still don't think the gap is as big as people think. The numbers aren't drastically different unless I'm missing something

You just know its going to be a overpay. Columbus doesn't really have a choice

It is, but this is the market that got set when Carlsson signed the offer sheet for 18 million. Then Bedard got 15. For CBJ they should say we're not doing 5 years, either we're doing 6-8, or we're doing 3. Walking to UFA status is not an option, especially not at that AAV.

this is such an ass reasoning

Genuinely what is your reasoning for it being a solid or good deal then?

didn’t say it would be a good deal it’s kinda meh imo. but like c’mon there’s so much better reasoning out there than the ones you gave

Can you please provide them then?

I don’t think I could agree more. Players like this are destroying the pay scale.

Yep. Columbus is cooked. Stuck in mediocrity forever.

This is what I meant when I said PHI fucked the entire league. We can hope it stays contained to the top 3 of the 2023 draft but I doubt it. Now none of these teams get to enjoy the 2nd contract where the player is underpaid. Schaefer is next. He’s going from ELC straight to 15M.

Leo Carlsson: 201 GP - 141 Pts Adam Fantilli: 213 GP - 140 Pts

Also doesn't help Fantilli has had a new coach every season

He is slightly better than Frank nazar i genuinely think 7.5 is what he deserves

This entire summer of panic locking up young players to mega deals reminds of the summer every defenceman got 9mill deals automatically, Nurse, Jones, and others

Bingo. Should be 5 mil max

He has one less career point than Carlson lol. Think it’s probably fine.

leo and fantilli production is nearly identical

You clearly didn't watch the video, Leo took the 3rd year jump you look for in a budding star, Fantilli did not. Everyone in their mother thinks Carlsson is the better player now and will be the better player in their primes rn as a result.

i don’t disagree about the potential but you get paid for production and it’s been identical not intangibles. and in today’s market especially after the offer sheet getting fantilli signed to like an 8x10 is a pipe dream

But again you gotta weigh the year 3 production far more than year 1 and also decently more than year 2.