«Why do Russians support the war?» This question is as commonly asked, as it is answered with wild conspiracies about the defective Russian genes, the inherent imperialism and other BS. To understand what really happens, you need to understand how Putin's propaganda works. 🧵

First, some ground rules. Propaganda (spreading information to encourage a behavior/gain support for an agenda) exists everywhere. In Portugese the word itself means simply "advertisment". It's not something The Evil People came up with, it's a universal human phenomenon.

There is, however, a crucial difference between free and non-free countries. When you have free speech and free market of ideas, outlets and narratives compete with each other, cancelling each other's outlandish BS. You always have a second opinion. Liars often get exposed.

Propaganda in free countries is much less dangerous and tends to take care of itself. When you have 10 channels, owned by 10 parties, telling 10 versions of bullshit — you can work out the truth by accounting for the contradictions. It is NOT the same in totalitarian countries.

if only one party can speak freely, while everyone else is shut down, there's no competition. No counter-arguments. No second opinions. Propaganda tends to overwrite any other things you might have known about the world. Replace your worldview with that of the state.

Russian propaganda is fun for the whole family. It is exquisite, sophisticated and competent, custom-made for every age group and demographic. Each group has its goals, its values, its preferred medium and its weak points.

Older people are more likely to support the state directly. Adults tend to be apolitical and a bit apathetic. Young people are, well... young. They crave fun and meaning. The state hijacks all of these.

Vladimir Putin's favourite propaganda medium is the TV, which he took under control in the early 2000s. In 2016 about 70% of Russians watched TV daily, for 353 minutes on average (that's almost 6 hr. of TV per day).

In the latter years, due to growing social networks presence, TV role steadily diminished, then plummeted after the 2022 invasion. But almost 20 years of unopposed information warfare against Russian society made a lasting impact, poisoning many minds.

According to opinion polls by Chronicles project, there's a strong correlation between trust in state media (that's mostly TV) and support for the war. There's also a correlation between advanced age and support for the war.

Seniors are the primary TV viewers. 89% of people over 60 watched TV daily in 2017. Russian seniors consumed more propaganda, than anyone else. Though there are competing explanations, I believe TV is the reason for such strong support for Putin and his war among them

Russian seniors are dirt-poor and socially isolated (because of bad health, mostly). For many of them the TV is literally the only window to the larger world outside their backyard. It's a priest, a friend and a family member. It's just about the only joy then can afford.

You must also remember that older people had the most difficulties adapting to the Internet, social media and the information society. Combine that with constant anti-liberal rants on TV and you'll start to see why Russian seniors are so hostile to alternative points of view.

They tend to be hawkish, patriotic and somewhat pro-soviet. Many of them believe in the idea of the state, which is just and fair, so they tend to trust it and its leadership. Because of that, the propaganda goal for this group is gathering direct support.

This group is targeted by Solovyov, Kiselyov and other warmongers. They're no diplomats and don't have to be, they just push the "enemies all around us" narrative — and the more extreme and indoctrinated portion of seniors tends to believe them

Other groups have very different worldviews and circumstances. They also prefer digital media over TV in most cases, and they may not buy the stuff seniors like. So the state adapts accordingly.

Take underage children, for example. They, of course, have no idea about politics and no inclination to take part in ideological debates. The goal here is to prime the youngest Russians to support the state later in life, by hijacking the educational system.

The schools conduct "patriotism lessons". And there are also wargames, patriotic festivals, military clubs etc. Victory day parades are also commonly used to instill support for the military in children. A lot of that is compulsory, especially the stuff they do in schools.

An important part of this is Yunarmiya (= army of the youth), which conducts pre-military training and wargames for teens. Just look at their vid below and imagine that you're a poor kid who never got to do cool stuff. Now YOU can become an action hero.

Kids from 1 to 92 like to play war. It's fun, trendy and it's in every game and movie. They have a great time at those wargames, while the authorities teach them to trust and protect the state, no matter what. After all, you can't abandon your team, right?

Metropolitan white collars require a different approach. Techies in their 20-30s don't care about the Russian World and they only play war online. But they do care about having a good job, good salary, nice environment and 1001 ways to satisfy their consumerism.

The propaganda goal here is not to get them excited about Putin and his wars, since this isn't gonna happen anyway. Instead, you try to make them completely apolitical and indifferent to the affairs of the state. Make them focus on themselves, not their country's issues.

"Here, we made a modern and comfortable urban environment for you and your projects. Do whatever you want, pursue career, make startups. Just don't get involved in politics. Politics is boring, and your life is so fun! — no need to spoil it. Just take the shinies!"

You won't find any hints of global conflict in Moscow mayor's media strategy. It's all about the great many ways you can be happy and successful in a city that never sleeps. A charm, which puts those ambitious young specialists into a wistful apolitical slumber.

Rewind a couple of years back and you'd find a surprisingly high number of young professionals on twitter, who didn't care about politics and didn't mind Putin, because their lives turned out OK. Many changed their minds since, ofc. But the strategy worked for a long time.

However, the most important part of society isn't metropolitan hipsters, warmongering grandmas or children. It's the silent and moderate majority, who just want to get through the daily struggles of life on their $400/mo salaries.

You can't buy them with shinies, since most of them can't afford any. You also can't motivate them with patriotic speeches, threats of nuclear revenge on NATO or games for kids. Raising salaries would be nice, but then you wouldn't be able to steal as much. So, what's the answer?

The primary strategy is to confuse them into inaction. Make them believe that the truth is not only unknown, but unknowable. Things are complicated. There's no good and bad, right and wrong. And if there is, you can't tell them apart. Political action becomes impossible.

Here's one example. What happened to Navalny in 2020? Was he poisoned? Did he drink too much moonshine? Took drugs? Did Bundestag poison him or did he poison himself? How can we know what is true, when the real story is already fantastic, and the alternatives are worse?

Putin's propaganda for the silent majority isn't based on building alternative reality. It's based on rejection of any possibility to know, whether reality even exists. The news aren't just fake, they're random and contradictory. They don't try to convince, but to confuse you.

When you create enough media noise, the signal simply gets lost. Only the people with a lot of experience can plow through this crap and find some real sources. Others just give up and decide that truth is either unreachable, or not worth reaching.