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Why The Shadow Banking System Could Trigger The Next Major Crisis Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors In this Short video, Danielle Danielle DiMartino Booth and Adam Taggart discuss why the shadow banking system—not traditional banks—could become the source of the next major financial crisis. * Private... credit may have disappeared from the headlines, but that doesn't mean the risks have disappeared with it. In this discussion, the focus shifts beyond private credit itself to the much larger theme—the shadow banking system—and why it could become the next major source of financial instability. * Companies have raised a record $251 billion through equity sales in the first half of the year. That surge has also drawn renewed attention to private equity, which sits at the center of the private credit ecosystem. The concern isn't simply the size of private credit—it's whether the underlying private asset valuations are realistic. * A key issue is the feedback loop between private and public markets. Many public companies own private investments, and gains from those holdings can boost reported earnings. If those private assets are being valued too aggressively, investors have to ask whether the "E" in the P/E ratio is as solid as it appears. Inflated valuations can support stronger earnings, higher stock prices, and more capital raising, creating a cycle that works well until confidence begins to crack. * Although fears around private credit have faded in recent months, Danielle argues that the market has simply moved into an "acceptance phase," not a resolution phase. The structural problems remain, but investors have largely stopped talking about them. * Meanwhile, non-bank financial institutions now control roughly $258 trillion in assets, representing more than half of global financial assets and exceeding the size of the traditional regulated banking system. Unlike banks, these institutions operate with far less transparency and oversight, making it much harder to assess the true level of risk. * At the same time, higher interest rates continue to pressure borrowers. Public company bankruptcies are already running about 40% higher than a year ago, suggesting financial stress is building. If publicly traded companies are struggling under today's financing conditions, the health of private companies—where financial information is far less accessible—remains a major unknown. * Danielle rates concern about private markets at roughly a 7–8 out of 10 now. The combination of opaque valuations, rising bankruptcies, higher-for-longer interest rates, and the enormous size of the shadow banking system creates a meaningful systemic risk. While this doesn't guarantee another financial crisis, it highlights an area that many investors may be underestimating simply because it has faded from the daily news cycle. #privatecredit #privateequity 💡 Get access to my notes with the key takeaways from this interview with Danielle Danielle DiMartino Booth by visiting my Substack (link below) ⬇️show more

Thoughtful Money®

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15,115 次观看 • 2 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Lyn Alden: Everyone's scared of private credit blowing up the financial system... US banks have $1.9T in loans to shadow banks - out of $25T in total bank assets. That's 7-8%. "What people are really asking is, can this tank the whole economy or can this contagion into the banking system?" "Those are the parts where my view is 'not that much'." The Fed can't print oil. But it can absolutely absorb a private credit blowup. FT Lyn Alden Danny Knowles.

Lyn Alden: Everyone's scared of private credit blowing up the financial system... US banks have $1.9T in loans to shadow banks - out of $25T in total bank assets. That's 7-8%. "What people are really asking is, can this tank the whole economy or can this contagion into the banking system?" "Those are the parts where my view is 'not that much'." The Fed can't print oil. But it can absolutely absorb a private credit blowup. FT Lyn Alden Danny Knowles.

Milk Road Crypto

164,530 次观看 • 1 个月前

Bessent: "These 2008, 2009, 2010 financial rules were too tight. They hamstrung the American financial system. It was time for a change. We're gonna be safe, smart, and sound in terms of our deregulation. But we have to take the financial system out of this straitjacket. This substantial increase in private credit which is outside of the regulated banking system -- that tells me that the regulated system is too constrained."

Bessent: "These 2008, 2009, 2010 financial rules were too tight. They hamstrung the American financial system. It was time for a change. We're gonna be safe, smart, and sound in terms of our deregulation. But we have to take the financial system out of this straitjacket. This substantial increase in private credit which is outside of the regulated banking system -- that tells me that the regulated system is too constrained."

Aaron Rupar

706,619 次观看 • 8 个月前

The financial system is creating the same risk patterns that caused the 2008 crisis—just in a different market. Private credit is that market. It's grown to $1 trillion in loans made by hedge funds and asset managers instead of regulated banks. Here's how it works: → Banks lend money to hedge funds. → Hedge funds use that capital to make risky loans. → Banks claim they have no direct exposure to the borrowers. But the risk doesn't disappear. The loans bypass traditional banking oversight, but the funding still originates from the regulated banking system. When private credit deals go bad, the losses flow back to banks through their hedge fund lending relationships. We're already seeing cracks. BlackRock lost 19% of their private credit fund in one quarter. Subprime auto loans are defaulting at accelerating rates. Overleveraged companies are filing bankruptcy. Nobody's watching the full picture. No transparency requirements mean regulators can't see the scope of interconnected exposures. No one knows which banks are most exposed through which hedge fund relationships. When private credit markets seize up, the connected banks will face losses just like they did with subprime mortgages. The legal framework for "bail-ins" already exists—allowing governments to access depositor funds to recapitalize banks rather than using taxpayer bailouts. This explains why diversification matters. When credit markets experience stress, assets outside the banking system—like precious metals—historically maintain value independent of financial institution health. The pattern repeats: Risk transfer, regulatory gaps, interconnected exposures, and inevitable systemic stress when the cycle reverses. -- This is just scratching the surface of the brewing financial crisis. In a 45-minute video, I also covered: • Why mining stocks give 3-5x leverage to gold price moves (costs stay fixed, profits multiply) • How CME margin hikes force leveraged traders to sell and crash prices •The US has legal framework for bail-ins (Orderly Liquidation Authority) Just comment "CRISIS" and I'll DM you the full video.

The financial system is creating the same risk patterns that caused the 2008 crisis—just in a different market. Private credit is that market. It's grown to $1 trillion in loans made by hedge funds and asset managers instead of regulated banks. Here's how it works: → Banks lend money to hedge funds. → Hedge funds use that capital to make risky loans. → Banks claim they have no direct exposure to the borrowers. But the risk doesn't disappear. The loans bypass traditional banking oversight, but the funding still originates from the regulated banking system. When private credit deals go bad, the losses flow back to banks through their hedge fund lending relationships. We're already seeing cracks. BlackRock lost 19% of their private credit fund in one quarter. Subprime auto loans are defaulting at accelerating rates. Overleveraged companies are filing bankruptcy. Nobody's watching the full picture. No transparency requirements mean regulators can't see the scope of interconnected exposures. No one knows which banks are most exposed through which hedge fund relationships. When private credit markets seize up, the connected banks will face losses just like they did with subprime mortgages. The legal framework for "bail-ins" already exists—allowing governments to access depositor funds to recapitalize banks rather than using taxpayer bailouts. This explains why diversification matters. When credit markets experience stress, assets outside the banking system—like precious metals—historically maintain value independent of financial institution health. The pattern repeats: Risk transfer, regulatory gaps, interconnected exposures, and inevitable systemic stress when the cycle reverses. -- This is just scratching the surface of the brewing financial crisis. In a 45-minute video, I also covered: • Why mining stocks give 3-5x leverage to gold price moves (costs stay fixed, profits multiply) • How CME margin hikes force leveraged traders to sell and crash prices •The US has legal framework for bail-ins (Orderly Liquidation Authority) Just comment "CRISIS" and I'll DM you the full video.

Felix Prehn 🐶

19,085 次观看 • 6 个月前

Private credit just hit the brakes, and the numbers are not subtle. New US direct lending issuance fell from about $74.6 billion in the first quarter to about $44.8 billion in the three months ending May, according to PitchBook. That is a massive slowdown in a single quarter. Private equity-backed borrowing dropped to about $28.5 billion. Lending tied to leveraged buyouts fell to about $15.2 billion. This is the private credit engine losing speed at the exact moment it needs confidence. And the reasons are not a mystery. Fundraising is still well below its peak. Redemption requests are elevated and still climbing. Investors are scrutinizing loan quality. And borrowers are stuck in a flat, gone-bad economy. For years private credit took market share because it was fast and certain. It could finance deals when the banks and the syndicated markets could not, because everyone assumed the economy would be good forever. That assumption is breaking. Now these funds are preserving liquidity and stretching to get deals done. So they have far less appetite to finance private equity at aggressive valuations. And that is where private equity gets pulled in. It ran on the leverage that private credit provided, and that engine is reversing. Here is the standoff. Private equity firms will not sell assets at lower prices, because that means admitting yesterday's marks were too high. Buyers will not pay peak multiples in a higher-rate, slower-growth world. Lenders will not underwrite the old assumptions. Investors do not want more money locked up. So the whole machine slows, grinds to a halt, and starts to reverse. One guy called it constipation.

Private credit just hit the brakes, and the numbers are not subtle. New US direct lending issuance fell from about $74.6 billion in the first quarter to about $44.8 billion in the three months ending May, according to PitchBook. That is a massive slowdown in a single quarter. Private equity-backed borrowing dropped to about $28.5 billion. Lending tied to leveraged buyouts fell to about $15.2 billion. This is the private credit engine losing speed at the exact moment it needs confidence. And the reasons are not a mystery. Fundraising is still well below its peak. Redemption requests are elevated and still climbing. Investors are scrutinizing loan quality. And borrowers are stuck in a flat, gone-bad economy. For years private credit took market share because it was fast and certain. It could finance deals when the banks and the syndicated markets could not, because everyone assumed the economy would be good forever. That assumption is breaking. Now these funds are preserving liquidity and stretching to get deals done. So they have far less appetite to finance private equity at aggressive valuations. And that is where private equity gets pulled in. It ran on the leverage that private credit provided, and that engine is reversing. Here is the standoff. Private equity firms will not sell assets at lower prices, because that means admitting yesterday's marks were too high. Buyers will not pay peak multiples in a higher-rate, slower-growth world. Lenders will not underwrite the old assumptions. Investors do not want more money locked up. So the whole machine slows, grinds to a halt, and starts to reverse. One guy called it constipation.

Jeffrey P. Snider

18,048 次观看 • 2 个月前

In August, President Trump signed an executive order titled "Democratizing Access to Alternative Assets for 401(k) Investors." The order directs regulators to make it easier for your retirement savings to flow into private credit, private equity, and other "alternative" assets. The Department of Labor quickly rescinded Biden-era guidance that had discouraged these investments in retirement plans. Apollo. Blackstone. Goldman Sachs. State Street. They're all racing to launch private credit products for your 401(k). But here's the problem: Private credit is showing cracks at the exact moment they want to open it up to retail investors. Just this week, BlackRock TCP Capital - one of the largest publicly traded private credit funds - plunged 17% after disclosing a 19% writedown on its net asset value. The biggest drop in almost six years. This is BlackRock. The world's largest asset manager. $14T in assets. If they're taking hits like this, what chance does your 401k have? Let me walk you through what's actually happening in this market... Private credit has ballooned to over $2T in assets. For years, it was the domain of sophisticated institutional investors - pension funds, endowments, insurance companies. These investors have teams of analysts, lawyers, and risk managers to evaluate complex deals. Your average 401k participant doesn't have any of that. And the timing couldn't be worse. The IMF's 2025 Financial Stability Report found that 40% of private credit borrowers now have NEGATIVE free cash flow. That's up from 25% in 2021. Goldman Sachs data shows 15% of borrowers can no longer generate enough cash to fully cover their interest payments. UBS forecasts that private credit defaults could climb by 3 percentage points in 2026 - outpacing leveraged loans and high-yield bonds. Meanwhile, payment-in-kind loans - where struggling borrowers defer interest by adding it to their debt balance - have surged from 7.4% in 2021 to over 11% today. When a company can't pay interest in cash, that's not a sign of health. It's a sign of stress being disguised. Then came September's wake-up call: Auto parts maker First Brands collapsed with $8B in off-balance-sheet financing that wasn't properly disclosed to lenders. Subprime auto lender Tricolor imploded amid allegations it pledged the same loans as collateral to multiple creditors. Both received clean audits shortly before they cratered. First Brands' term loans went from 90 cents on the dollar to under 15 cents in weeks. JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon put it bluntly: "When you see one cockroach, there are probably more." Here's what makes this dangerous: Private credit is lightly regulated, less transparent, and difficult to value accurately. The managers making the loans are often the same ones valuing them. They have every incentive to delay recognizing problems. The DOJ has already issued warnings about "creative" marks and questionable valuation practices. Banks aren't insulated either. They've lent over $2.2T to non-bank financial institutions. When problems surface in private credit, banks feel it too. And now they want to put this in YOUR retirement account. The pitch is that private credit offers "higher returns" and "diversification." But the data doesn't support the sales pitch: Recent research shows pension funds increasing exposure to private markets have actually seen depressed returns compared to simple stock and bond portfolios. The 50 largest US pension funds averaged just 7.4% returns over the past decade. A basic 60/40 portfolio beat many of them. The real beneficiaries are fund managers charging 2% fees on assets that can't be easily valued or sold. My view really hasn't changed: AVOID PRIVATE CREDIT When sophisticated institutional investors start pulling back - and they are - the last thing you want to do is rush in. Stay in liquid, transparent, low-cost investments for your retirement. Don't be the exit liquidity.

In August, President Trump signed an executive order titled "Democratizing Access to Alternative Assets for 401(k) Investors." The order directs regulators to make it easier for your retirement savings to flow into private credit, private equity, and other "alternative" assets. The Department of Labor quickly rescinded Biden-era guidance that had discouraged these investments in retirement plans. Apollo. Blackstone. Goldman Sachs. State Street. They're all racing to launch private credit products for your 401(k). But here's the problem: Private credit is showing cracks at the exact moment they want to open it up to retail investors. Just this week, BlackRock TCP Capital - one of the largest publicly traded private credit funds - plunged 17% after disclosing a 19% writedown on its net asset value. The biggest drop in almost six years. This is BlackRock. The world's largest asset manager. $14T in assets. If they're taking hits like this, what chance does your 401k have? Let me walk you through what's actually happening in this market... Private credit has ballooned to over $2T in assets. For years, it was the domain of sophisticated institutional investors - pension funds, endowments, insurance companies. These investors have teams of analysts, lawyers, and risk managers to evaluate complex deals. Your average 401k participant doesn't have any of that. And the timing couldn't be worse. The IMF's 2025 Financial Stability Report found that 40% of private credit borrowers now have NEGATIVE free cash flow. That's up from 25% in 2021. Goldman Sachs data shows 15% of borrowers can no longer generate enough cash to fully cover their interest payments. UBS forecasts that private credit defaults could climb by 3 percentage points in 2026 - outpacing leveraged loans and high-yield bonds. Meanwhile, payment-in-kind loans - where struggling borrowers defer interest by adding it to their debt balance - have surged from 7.4% in 2021 to over 11% today. When a company can't pay interest in cash, that's not a sign of health. It's a sign of stress being disguised. Then came September's wake-up call: Auto parts maker First Brands collapsed with $8B in off-balance-sheet financing that wasn't properly disclosed to lenders. Subprime auto lender Tricolor imploded amid allegations it pledged the same loans as collateral to multiple creditors. Both received clean audits shortly before they cratered. First Brands' term loans went from 90 cents on the dollar to under 15 cents in weeks. JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon put it bluntly: "When you see one cockroach, there are probably more." Here's what makes this dangerous: Private credit is lightly regulated, less transparent, and difficult to value accurately. The managers making the loans are often the same ones valuing them. They have every incentive to delay recognizing problems. The DOJ has already issued warnings about "creative" marks and questionable valuation practices. Banks aren't insulated either. They've lent over $2.2T to non-bank financial institutions. When problems surface in private credit, banks feel it too. And now they want to put this in YOUR retirement account. The pitch is that private credit offers "higher returns" and "diversification." But the data doesn't support the sales pitch: Recent research shows pension funds increasing exposure to private markets have actually seen depressed returns compared to simple stock and bond portfolios. The 50 largest US pension funds averaged just 7.4% returns over the past decade. A basic 60/40 portfolio beat many of them. The real beneficiaries are fund managers charging 2% fees on assets that can't be easily valued or sold. My view really hasn't changed: AVOID PRIVATE CREDIT When sophisticated institutional investors start pulling back - and they are - the last thing you want to do is rush in. Stay in liquid, transparent, low-cost investments for your retirement. Don't be the exit liquidity.

George Noble

932,848 次观看 • 7 个月前

A couple of Citi analysts framed the whole issue perfectly. What if the retail investors fleeing these funds are selling at the very top, and the BDC holder everyone called dumb money is actually the smartest in the room? Their warning was blunt. The calm is deceptive. The next wave of stress will not be gradual. It will be sudden. Non-linear. That is the point. The surface looks fine. Decent NAVs. Confident managers. Underneath, it is a mess. And the mess is spreading. Now the big one. Switzerland's Partners Group. And this is private equity, not private credit. That is the escalation. The contagion is jumping lanes. And it is not just a US problem. It is global. Partners Group just capped withdrawals at its 8.6 billion dollar private equity fund. Redemption requests hit nearly 10% in a single quarter. The cap is 5%. Same move the credit funds are already making. These evergreen funds were sold as flexible private equity. Own private companies, skip the ten-year lockup, redeem when you want. Except you cannot. The assets are not liquid. So when requests are 10% and the limit is 5%, the message is simple. Everyone wants out at once, and the door is too small. This is not Partners Group collapsing. It is the liquidity illusion jumping from credit to equity. And that changes everything. This was never a few investors misreading Blue Owl. It is a full reassessment of private markets. Illiquid assets. Delayed marks. High rates. Dead deals. Locked gates. Investors are looking at all of it and saying the same thing. I want out.

A couple of Citi analysts framed the whole issue perfectly. What if the retail investors fleeing these funds are selling at the very top, and the BDC holder everyone called dumb money is actually the smartest in the room? Their warning was blunt. The calm is deceptive. The next wave of stress will not be gradual. It will be sudden. Non-linear. That is the point. The surface looks fine. Decent NAVs. Confident managers. Underneath, it is a mess. And the mess is spreading. Now the big one. Switzerland's Partners Group. And this is private equity, not private credit. That is the escalation. The contagion is jumping lanes. And it is not just a US problem. It is global. Partners Group just capped withdrawals at its 8.6 billion dollar private equity fund. Redemption requests hit nearly 10% in a single quarter. The cap is 5%. Same move the credit funds are already making. These evergreen funds were sold as flexible private equity. Own private companies, skip the ten-year lockup, redeem when you want. Except you cannot. The assets are not liquid. So when requests are 10% and the limit is 5%, the message is simple. Everyone wants out at once, and the door is too small. This is not Partners Group collapsing. It is the liquidity illusion jumping from credit to equity. And that changes everything. This was never a few investors misreading Blue Owl. It is a full reassessment of private markets. Illiquid assets. Delayed marks. High rates. Dead deals. Locked gates. Investors are looking at all of it and saying the same thing. I want out.

Jeffrey P. Snider

22,209 次观看 • 2 个月前

"Constipated." That is the word now being used for the private credit market. And it is exactly what this looks like. The private credit story is changing. For months it was framed as a liquidity problem. Investors trying to pull their money out. That is still a huge problem. BlackRock just had a couple of funds suffering big runs. But there is a bigger one. It is no longer just the investors who want out. It is the investors outside who no longer want in. And that is the much bigger story. Because the private credit boom was built on flows. Constant inflows from wealth managers, pensions, insurance companies, and the general public. That is how big it got. The machine has to keep moving. Money comes in. Loans get made. Funds grow. Redemptions get handled. Managers collect their fees. Everyone pretends it is calm because the marks are smooth and the exits are limited. Now the machine is reversing. Reuters reported US direct lending issuance in the three months ending May was down roughly 40% from the first quarter. Issuance to private-equity-backed borrowers dropped nearly 37%. Volume tied to leveraged buyouts fell about 34%. So this is no longer just a redemption story. The exits are clogged. New money is hesitant. Sellers will not cut prices, and buyers will not pay yesterday's valuations. Credit funds are handling redemptions. Leveraged loans are showing strain. And publicly traded BDCs are not rebounding, even as the broader market soars. So the question is no longer whether investors are still withdrawing. They are, and it is accelerating. It is not about the people inside who want out. It is about the people outside who no longer want in. That is the bigger problem. It pushes us deeper into stage two, and the odds of stage three go up from here.

"Constipated." That is the word now being used for the private credit market. And it is exactly what this looks like. The private credit story is changing. For months it was framed as a liquidity problem. Investors trying to pull their money out. That is still a huge problem. BlackRock just had a couple of funds suffering big runs. But there is a bigger one. It is no longer just the investors who want out. It is the investors outside who no longer want in. And that is the much bigger story. Because the private credit boom was built on flows. Constant inflows from wealth managers, pensions, insurance companies, and the general public. That is how big it got. The machine has to keep moving. Money comes in. Loans get made. Funds grow. Redemptions get handled. Managers collect their fees. Everyone pretends it is calm because the marks are smooth and the exits are limited. Now the machine is reversing. Reuters reported US direct lending issuance in the three months ending May was down roughly 40% from the first quarter. Issuance to private-equity-backed borrowers dropped nearly 37%. Volume tied to leveraged buyouts fell about 34%. So this is no longer just a redemption story. The exits are clogged. New money is hesitant. Sellers will not cut prices, and buyers will not pay yesterday's valuations. Credit funds are handling redemptions. Leveraged loans are showing strain. And publicly traded BDCs are not rebounding, even as the broader market soars. So the question is no longer whether investors are still withdrawing. They are, and it is accelerating. It is not about the people inside who want out. It is about the people outside who no longer want in. That is the bigger problem. It pushes us deeper into stage two, and the odds of stage three go up from here.

Jeffrey P. Snider

24,551 次观看 • 2 个月前

Is Private Credit in a bubble? Is it about to blow up? Blue Owl reportedly received ~$5.4B of investor withdrawal requests from major private credit vehicles — including attempts to pull more than 40% from one fund. The broader private credit industry has grown from roughly ~$150B in 2010 to ~$2T today, effectively becoming a parallel lending system alongside banks. Now some BDCs & evergreen private credit funds are hitting redemption limits. What most people are missing under the headlines: Many BDCs (Business Development Companies) & evergreen private credit funds were never designed to provide unlimited liquidity. These vehicles lend to highly illiquid private companies — often PE-backed businesses — while only offering limited periodic withdrawals to investors. That’s why many structures have built-in quarterly redemption caps.

Is Private Credit in a bubble? Is it about to blow up? Blue Owl reportedly received ~$5.4B of investor withdrawal requests from major private credit vehicles — including attempts to pull more than 40% from one fund. The broader private credit industry has grown from roughly ~$150B in 2010 to ~$2T today, effectively becoming a parallel lending system alongside banks. Now some BDCs & evergreen private credit funds are hitting redemption limits. What most people are missing under the headlines: Many BDCs (Business Development Companies) & evergreen private credit funds were never designed to provide unlimited liquidity. These vehicles lend to highly illiquid private companies — often PE-backed businesses — while only offering limited periodic withdrawals to investors. That’s why many structures have built-in quarterly redemption caps.

Molly O’Shea

16,994 次观看 • 3 个月前

ASWATH DAMODARAN: PRIVATE CREDIT IS THE NEXT CRISIS. His framing starts with a question that nobody in the boom is asking. Who exactly are the lenders writing the checks to fund all these AI data centers? Shale oil companies borrowed heavily when oil was at $120 a barrel and got crushed when prices fell to $60. The same pattern is forming today in compute infrastructure, and the people putting up the capital are getting almost no scrutiny. Damodaran does not see private credit as the sophisticated, intelligent alternative the marketing has positioned it as. He sees it as sheep. Every fund is chasing the same deals, the same sectors, and the same yield premiums that allegedly justify the structure. Intelligence in his view has been confused with confidence, and confidence in this corner of finance has compounded into something far more dangerous than the participants realize. His broader point is that hedge funds, private equity, and private credit have all followed the same destructive arc. Each one began as a genuinely good niche business solving a real problem. Hedge funds 30 years ago produced positive alpha, beating passive investing by 3 to 5 percent annually. Today they look like expensive mutual funds, underperforming passive by roughly 1.5 percent. Private equity started as a focused, disciplined strategy for a small set of operators and has grown into a sprawling category that now struggles to deliver the returns that justified its emergence. Private credit had a legitimate original purpose, which was lending to borrowers that banks structurally could not serve. What killed each of these businesses was the same disease. Overreach. A $200 billion niche business gets sold as a $20 trillion opportunity. When that scaling happens, sloppiness follows, bad actors enter the space, and the average quality of every participant deteriorates. The original alpha disappears not because the strategy stopped working, but because too much money chased too few good deals. The danger with private credit is far more severe than the parallel problems in private equity and hedge funds. Equity investors take their losses and move on. Lending businesses, when they overreach, take others down with them. Banks. Pensions. Insurance companies. Sovereign wealth funds. The systemic linkages run far deeper than most participants understand, and the social costs of a real default cycle in private credit would extend well beyond the funds themselves. Damodaran's warning is essentially that the industry is repeating the exact mistake that produced every previous credit crisis. Take a good idea, scale it past its natural capacity, attract bad actors with the promise of easy returns, and wait for the inevitable cycle that exposes how much of the underwriting was never serious in the first place. Aswath Damodaran Fixed + Floating - The Credit Podcast

ASWATH DAMODARAN: PRIVATE CREDIT IS THE NEXT CRISIS. His framing starts with a question that nobody in the boom is asking. Who exactly are the lenders writing the checks to fund all these AI data centers? Shale oil companies borrowed heavily when oil was at $120 a barrel and got crushed when prices fell to $60. The same pattern is forming today in compute infrastructure, and the people putting up the capital are getting almost no scrutiny. Damodaran does not see private credit as the sophisticated, intelligent alternative the marketing has positioned it as. He sees it as sheep. Every fund is chasing the same deals, the same sectors, and the same yield premiums that allegedly justify the structure. Intelligence in his view has been confused with confidence, and confidence in this corner of finance has compounded into something far more dangerous than the participants realize. His broader point is that hedge funds, private equity, and private credit have all followed the same destructive arc. Each one began as a genuinely good niche business solving a real problem. Hedge funds 30 years ago produced positive alpha, beating passive investing by 3 to 5 percent annually. Today they look like expensive mutual funds, underperforming passive by roughly 1.5 percent. Private equity started as a focused, disciplined strategy for a small set of operators and has grown into a sprawling category that now struggles to deliver the returns that justified its emergence. Private credit had a legitimate original purpose, which was lending to borrowers that banks structurally could not serve. What killed each of these businesses was the same disease. Overreach. A $200 billion niche business gets sold as a $20 trillion opportunity. When that scaling happens, sloppiness follows, bad actors enter the space, and the average quality of every participant deteriorates. The original alpha disappears not because the strategy stopped working, but because too much money chased too few good deals. The danger with private credit is far more severe than the parallel problems in private equity and hedge funds. Equity investors take their losses and move on. Lending businesses, when they overreach, take others down with them. Banks. Pensions. Insurance companies. Sovereign wealth funds. The systemic linkages run far deeper than most participants understand, and the social costs of a real default cycle in private credit would extend well beyond the funds themselves. Damodaran's warning is essentially that the industry is repeating the exact mistake that produced every previous credit crisis. Take a good idea, scale it past its natural capacity, attract bad actors with the promise of easy returns, and wait for the inevitable cycle that exposes how much of the underwriting was never serious in the first place. Aswath Damodaran Fixed + Floating - The Credit Podcast

Lumida Wealth Management

109,472 次观看 • 2 个月前

.Erik Voorhees: It’s actually good, from the Trojan horse perspective, that Bitcoin was traceable enough for traditional institutions to tolerate it. “When Bitcoin came out, everyone called it private, thought of it as private. It was referred to as anonymous in every news story. And in some ways, it is very private and very anonymous. But the truth is that it’s also extremely trackable and traceable. It is not private in reality. And the question is, should it have been from the start? And at first I thought, yes, it should have been more private. And that was a mistake in its design. However, I think if Bitcoin had been anonymous truly from the start, like a Zcash or a Monero, it would have had such antagonism from the state. I don’t know that the state could have snuffed it out, but they would have tried much harder. And I think it’s actually good, from the Trojan horse metaphor perspective, that it was traceable enough that the traditional institutions could tolerate it. They’ve never liked it, but they could at least tolerate it because there is some traceability. And that has allowed Bitcoin to grow. And I think in its shadow, that other crypto assets are actually anonymous is very healthy. The strength of cryptocurrency as a concept in society, I think, is served best when Bitcoin itself is not perfectly private, but other assets are. That is a very difficult thing, I think, for the state to combat. And that decentralization of attributes is really, really crucial. So, yeah, I’m very glad that there are other coins that are private. I want there to be more of them, and I want them to be more popular. And I think it’s okay that Bitcoin itself is not.”

.Erik Voorhees: It’s actually good, from the Trojan horse perspective, that Bitcoin was traceable enough for traditional institutions to tolerate it. “When Bitcoin came out, everyone called it private, thought of it as private. It was referred to as anonymous in every news story. And in some ways, it is very private and very anonymous. But the truth is that it’s also extremely trackable and traceable. It is not private in reality. And the question is, should it have been from the start? And at first I thought, yes, it should have been more private. And that was a mistake in its design. However, I think if Bitcoin had been anonymous truly from the start, like a Zcash or a Monero, it would have had such antagonism from the state. I don’t know that the state could have snuffed it out, but they would have tried much harder. And I think it’s actually good, from the Trojan horse metaphor perspective, that it was traceable enough that the traditional institutions could tolerate it. They’ve never liked it, but they could at least tolerate it because there is some traceability. And that has allowed Bitcoin to grow. And I think in its shadow, that other crypto assets are actually anonymous is very healthy. The strength of cryptocurrency as a concept in society, I think, is served best when Bitcoin itself is not perfectly private, but other assets are. That is a very difficult thing, I think, for the state to combat. And that decentralization of attributes is really, really crucial. So, yeah, I’m very glad that there are other coins that are private. I want there to be more of them, and I want them to be more popular. And I think it’s okay that Bitcoin itself is not.”

Arjun Khemani

23,056 次观看 • 2 个月前

In 2011, I pitched a top securities attorney in New York on democratizing investing. After hearing me list all of the ways I believed retail investors were disadvantaged by the financial system, he just looked at me and said: “Why would you bother with the little guy?” Today, 15 later, we’re listing the Fundrise Innovation Fund on the NYSE under the ticker $VCX. The financial system has a structural problem that most people can feel but few can name. The most valuable private technology companies are worth hundreds of billions, even over a trillion dollars, and they’ve never gone public. The wealth creation that used to flow through public markets—enabling everyone to participate—now happens behind a wall that excludes everyday investors. AI compounds the urgency. The companies building the most transformative technology in a generation are growing at rates we’ve never seen before, and the gap between who owns that growth and who benefits from it widens every quarter. We started working on the Fundrise Innovation Fund in 2021 to test whether a public venture capital fund could work. Over 100,000 investors now own a portfolio concentrated in the leading private AI and technology companies, making VCX one of the largest funds of its kind to ever list on a major exchange. No accredited investor requirement. Now available in any brokerage account. When that attorney asked me why I’d bother with the little guy, I told him: because they’re getting screwed! But I believe today marks another step in building a better financial system for the individual investor. Onward

In 2011, I pitched a top securities attorney in New York on democratizing investing. After hearing me list all of the ways I believed retail investors were disadvantaged by the financial system, he just looked at me and said: “Why would you bother with the little guy?” Today, 15 later, we’re listing the Fundrise Innovation Fund on the NYSE under the ticker $VCX. The financial system has a structural problem that most people can feel but few can name. The most valuable private technology companies are worth hundreds of billions, even over a trillion dollars, and they’ve never gone public. The wealth creation that used to flow through public markets—enabling everyone to participate—now happens behind a wall that excludes everyday investors. AI compounds the urgency. The companies building the most transformative technology in a generation are growing at rates we’ve never seen before, and the gap between who owns that growth and who benefits from it widens every quarter. We started working on the Fundrise Innovation Fund in 2021 to test whether a public venture capital fund could work. Over 100,000 investors now own a portfolio concentrated in the leading private AI and technology companies, making VCX one of the largest funds of its kind to ever list on a major exchange. No accredited investor requirement. Now available in any brokerage account. When that attorney asked me why I’d bother with the little guy, I told him: because they’re getting screwed! But I believe today marks another step in building a better financial system for the individual investor. Onward

Benjamin Miller

36,047 次观看 • 5 个月前

Elon Musk describes X as something much bigger than a social media app, and X Money makes it happen. "If done right, X would serve people's financial needs to such a degree over time, it could become half of the global financial system, or some very large share of it. I do not know the exact number, but it could be big enough to become by far the largest financial institution. Not in the traditional way people think about banks, but as the most efficient database for money." In his view, money is just another form of information, and today’s financial system is slow, outdated, and fragmented. He imagines X becoming a real-time platform where payments, banking, communication, and media all flow through one place. Without branches, ATMs, or old banking systems, it could be faster, cheaper, and less vulnerable to fraud. The bigger vision is an “everything app” that simplifies daily life and could one day become a major part of the global financial system.

Elon Musk describes X as something much bigger than a social media app, and X Money makes it happen. "If done right, X would serve people's financial needs to such a degree over time, it could become half of the global financial system, or some very large share of it. I do not know the exact number, but it could be big enough to become by far the largest financial institution. Not in the traditional way people think about banks, but as the most efficient database for money." In his view, money is just another form of information, and today’s financial system is slow, outdated, and fragmented. He imagines X becoming a real-time platform where payments, banking, communication, and media all flow through one place. Without branches, ATMs, or old banking systems, it could be faster, cheaper, and less vulnerable to fraud. The bigger vision is an “everything app” that simplifies daily life and could one day become a major part of the global financial system.

Doge Tipping

28,614 次观看 • 2 个月前

Alastair Crooke: US🇺🇸 regime change in Venezuela🇻🇪 is about dominating ALL of Western hemisphere from Argentina to the Arctic…and the US’ growing FINANCIAL CRISIS ‘Venezuela is a huge country. It’s bigger than Ukraine. It’s a large, very large country. And it has connections. You know, I for a period lived in Colombia and you know, it’s quite likely that there are militia waiting to join in on the borders. What are they going to do? Decapitate the government? Bombing it or invading it or kidnapping it? I don’t know. But when the FT says they’re unprepared, this is just psy-ops to say this is an easy war, we will take all that oil and gas and natural resources, and it’ll be folded into the United States. I mean what I think this is about is that the Trump team has made it very clear and sent sort of very clear messages to those receiving, saying from the southernmost tip of Argentina to the Arctic, this is all going to be folded into the new US Western hemisphere sphere of interest. So all of this is part of that, but it’s also part of the US financial crisis. They’ve got a shadow banking system which is now 50% of the credit, which is 50% of total credit given from America, dwarfing almost the conventional deregulated banking system. This is unregulated, is over-leveraged and as the economist from the BIS just said the other day, this is half of the credit given out and we haven’t a clue what’s going on there. In the regulated system we’ve got an idea of what’s going on in the banks, but in the shadow banking system which is now half of the total, we don’t have an idea what’s going on there.’ -Alastair Crooke, the former Middle East Advisor to the EU Foreign Policy Chief, on the latest episode of Going Underground FULL INTERVIEW BELOW IN THE REPLIES👇

Alastair Crooke: US🇺🇸 regime change in Venezuela🇻🇪 is about dominating ALL of Western hemisphere from Argentina to the Arctic…and the US’ growing FINANCIAL CRISIS ‘Venezuela is a huge country. It’s bigger than Ukraine. It’s a large, very large country. And it has connections. You know, I for a period lived in Colombia and you know, it’s quite likely that there are militia waiting to join in on the borders. What are they going to do? Decapitate the government? Bombing it or invading it or kidnapping it? I don’t know. But when the FT says they’re unprepared, this is just psy-ops to say this is an easy war, we will take all that oil and gas and natural resources, and it’ll be folded into the United States. I mean what I think this is about is that the Trump team has made it very clear and sent sort of very clear messages to those receiving, saying from the southernmost tip of Argentina to the Arctic, this is all going to be folded into the new US Western hemisphere sphere of interest. So all of this is part of that, but it’s also part of the US financial crisis. They’ve got a shadow banking system which is now 50% of the credit, which is 50% of total credit given from America, dwarfing almost the conventional deregulated banking system. This is unregulated, is over-leveraged and as the economist from the BIS just said the other day, this is half of the credit given out and we haven’t a clue what’s going on there. In the regulated system we’ve got an idea of what’s going on in the banks, but in the shadow banking system which is now half of the total, we don’t have an idea what’s going on there.’ -Alastair Crooke, the former Middle East Advisor to the EU Foreign Policy Chief, on the latest episode of Going Underground FULL INTERVIEW BELOW IN THE REPLIES👇

Going Underground

105,841 次观看 • 9 个月前

THE BOND MARKET IS FLASHING A WARNING As interest rates keep climbing and inflation fears return, the U.S. bond market is showing deeper signs of stress. That may sound distant from everyday life, but bond-market trouble quickly reaches Main Street through the cost of a mortgage, a car loan, a credit card balance, and the stability of the banking system. Professor Steve Hanke (Steve Hanke) warns that higher yields could lead to another surge in mortgage rates, more expensive credit card debt, and growing pressure on banks already carrying losses and exposure to rising rates. When government borrowing becomes more costly, the burden spreads across the economy. Years of government-driven inflation have pushed the economy toward dangerous territory. The concern is not just that prices will stay high; it is that a worsening bond-market crisis could trigger a broader financial shock that households will be forced to absorb.

THE BOND MARKET IS FLASHING A WARNING As interest rates keep climbing and inflation fears return, the U.S. bond market is showing deeper signs of stress. That may sound distant from everyday life, but bond-market trouble quickly reaches Main Street through the cost of a mortgage, a car loan, a credit card balance, and the stability of the banking system. Professor Steve Hanke (Steve Hanke) warns that higher yields could lead to another surge in mortgage rates, more expensive credit card debt, and growing pressure on banks already carrying losses and exposure to rising rates. When government borrowing becomes more costly, the burden spreads across the economy. Years of government-driven inflation have pushed the economy toward dangerous territory. The concern is not just that prices will stay high; it is that a worsening bond-market crisis could trigger a broader financial shock that households will be forced to absorb.

Redacted

21,519 次观看 • 20 天前

Gavin Baker (Gavin Baker) says the disaggregation of inference can extend GPU useful lives from 3-4 years to 10-15. That may single-handedly save private credit and reduce the financing rates for GPUs, which will drive demand and help finance the build-out. "The disaggregation of prefill and inference is going to be amazing for the useful lives of GPU and may single-handedly save private credit. Private credit is in pain from these SaaS loans. But there's a lot of private credit in GPUs too. They were underwriting that to 3-4. The disaggregation of inference means that these GPUs are going to have 10 or 15-year lives. The AI skeptics are like, "Oh, these companies are all cooking their books. The useful life of a GPU is only a year or two. The useful life of a CPU is only four years because the rapid technological change." No. What rapid technological change has done with the disaggregation of prefill and inference is you can put a Cerebras system or Groq LPUs effectively in front of a Hopper or even an Ampere, use that Hopper and Ampere for prefill, and extend the useful life of that GPU until it melts. This is going to be really good for the whole private credit industry. It's gonna help finance the AI build-out. Because if you can start to finance GPUs at 5% or 6% instead of – I think CoreWeave's lowest financing was low sevens – that actually mathematically changes the cost to finance this build-out."

Gavin Baker (Gavin Baker) says the disaggregation of inference can extend GPU useful lives from 3-4 years to 10-15. That may single-handedly save private credit and reduce the financing rates for GPUs, which will drive demand and help finance the build-out. "The disaggregation of prefill and inference is going to be amazing for the useful lives of GPU and may single-handedly save private credit. Private credit is in pain from these SaaS loans. But there's a lot of private credit in GPUs too. They were underwriting that to 3-4. The disaggregation of inference means that these GPUs are going to have 10 or 15-year lives. The AI skeptics are like, "Oh, these companies are all cooking their books. The useful life of a GPU is only a year or two. The useful life of a CPU is only four years because the rapid technological change." No. What rapid technological change has done with the disaggregation of prefill and inference is you can put a Cerebras system or Groq LPUs effectively in front of a Hopper or even an Ampere, use that Hopper and Ampere for prefill, and extend the useful life of that GPU until it melts. This is going to be really good for the whole private credit industry. It's gonna help finance the AI build-out. Because if you can start to finance GPUs at 5% or 6% instead of – I think CoreWeave's lowest financing was low sevens – that actually mathematically changes the cost to finance this build-out."

Invest Like the Best

211,336 次观看 • 3 个月前

🚨If Ukraine🇺🇦 fails, Europe’s🇪🇺 banking sector could go into CRISIS, Western European banking sector is approaching a cliff! ‘The cleanup after the 2008 financial crisis didn’t really happen in Europe. All the bad assets remained in the balance sheet of European banks and they have been hidden in various ways. But the collapse of the venerable Credit Suisse in March 2023 kind of showed where the European banking sector actually is. But this is not just a European problem. It’s also the problem of the US. But in Europe we have a kind of a twist here, which is that we don’t actually know how much loans the European banks have provided to Ukraine, but some estimated it to be a large sum. And if Ukraine would fail, it could cause more problems in the European banking sector. But I would say that the whole Western banking system is kind of closing in on the cliff, which the approaching recession could push the banking sector over and lead to a banking crisis.’ -Tuomas Malinen, CEO of GnS Economics joins us for Monday’s episode of Going Underground Don’t miss it, follow our Rumble channel, link below in the replies👇

🚨If Ukraine🇺🇦 fails, Europe’s🇪🇺 banking sector could go into CRISIS, Western European banking sector is approaching a cliff! ‘The cleanup after the 2008 financial crisis didn’t really happen in Europe. All the bad assets remained in the balance sheet of European banks and they have been hidden in various ways. But the collapse of the venerable Credit Suisse in March 2023 kind of showed where the European banking sector actually is. But this is not just a European problem. It’s also the problem of the US. But in Europe we have a kind of a twist here, which is that we don’t actually know how much loans the European banks have provided to Ukraine, but some estimated it to be a large sum. And if Ukraine would fail, it could cause more problems in the European banking sector. But I would say that the whole Western banking system is kind of closing in on the cliff, which the approaching recession could push the banking sector over and lead to a banking crisis.’ -Tuomas Malinen, CEO of GnS Economics joins us for Monday’s episode of Going Underground Don’t miss it, follow our Rumble channel, link below in the replies👇

Going Underground

22,321 次观看 • 7 个月前

Alastair Crooke: US🇺🇸 regime change in Venezuela🇻🇪 is about dominating ALL of Western hemisphere from Argentina to the Arctic…and the US’ growing FINANCIAL CRISIS ‘Venezuela is a huge country. It’s bigger than Ukraine. It’s a large, very large country. And it has connections. You know, I for a period lived in Colombia and you know, it’s quite likely that there are militia waiting to join in on the borders. What are they going to do? Decapitate the government? Bombing it or invading it or kidnapping it? I don’t know. But when the FT says they’re unprepared, this is just psy-ops to say this is an easy war, we will take all that oil and gas and natural resources, and it’ll be folded into the United States. I mean what I think this is about is that the Trump team has made it very clear and sent sort of very clear messages to those receiving, saying from the southernmost tip of Argentina to the Arctic, this is all going to be folded into the new US Western hemisphere sphere of interest. So all of this is part of that, but it’s also part of the US financial crisis. They’ve got a shadow banking system which is now 50% of the credit, which is 50% of total credit given from America, dwarfing almost the conventional deregulated banking system. This is unregulated, is over-leveraged and as the economist from the BIS just said the other day, this is half of the credit given out and we haven’t a clue what’s going on there. In the regulated system we’ve got an idea of what’s going on in the banks, but in the shadow banking system which is now half of the total, we don’t have an idea what’s going on there.’ -Alastair Crooke, the former Middle East Advisor to the EU Foreign Policy Chief, on Going Underground

Alastair Crooke: US🇺🇸 regime change in Venezuela🇻🇪 is about dominating ALL of Western hemisphere from Argentina to the Arctic…and the US’ growing FINANCIAL CRISIS ‘Venezuela is a huge country. It’s bigger than Ukraine. It’s a large, very large country. And it has connections. You know, I for a period lived in Colombia and you know, it’s quite likely that there are militia waiting to join in on the borders. What are they going to do? Decapitate the government? Bombing it or invading it or kidnapping it? I don’t know. But when the FT says they’re unprepared, this is just psy-ops to say this is an easy war, we will take all that oil and gas and natural resources, and it’ll be folded into the United States. I mean what I think this is about is that the Trump team has made it very clear and sent sort of very clear messages to those receiving, saying from the southernmost tip of Argentina to the Arctic, this is all going to be folded into the new US Western hemisphere sphere of interest. So all of this is part of that, but it’s also part of the US financial crisis. They’ve got a shadow banking system which is now 50% of the credit, which is 50% of total credit given from America, dwarfing almost the conventional deregulated banking system. This is unregulated, is over-leveraged and as the economist from the BIS just said the other day, this is half of the credit given out and we haven’t a clue what’s going on there. In the regulated system we’ve got an idea of what’s going on in the banks, but in the shadow banking system which is now half of the total, we don’t have an idea what’s going on there.’ -Alastair Crooke, the former Middle East Advisor to the EU Foreign Policy Chief, on Going Underground

Afshin Rattansi

103,739 次观看 • 8 个月前

The Housing Crash Nobody Wants to Talk About Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors In this Short video, Melody Wright Melody Wright and Adam Taggart discuss why the U.S. housing market could be headed for a prolonged downturn that may ultimately prove worse than the 2008 housing crash. * The U.S. housing market may look stable on the surface, but the biggest problems are only beginning to emerge. While national home prices have not fallen significantly, Melody believes the market is effectively frozen and could be headed for a correction that ultimately exceeds the Global Financial Crisis in both depth and duration. * The core issue isn't supply—it's demand. There simply aren't enough qualified buyers. The spring selling season, normally the strongest period for home sales, was a major disappointment. Lower mortgage rates early in the year briefly created optimism, but geopolitical uncertainty quickly reversed that momentum. As a result, housing activity remains sluggish. * The buyers who are still transacting fall into two main groups: affluent households purchasing higher-end homes and buyers using government-backed financing programs such as FHA, Fannie Mae, or Freddie Mac. Outside those segments, affordability has become a major obstacle, leaving much of the market without sufficient demand. * The market is also becoming increasingly bifurcated. In parts of the South and West, home sales have picked up compared to last year, but prices are declining as sellers accept lower offers to complete transactions. That's genuine price discovery. Meanwhile, the Northeast and Midwest continue to see weak sales volumes, with June transactions down roughly 7% year over year. Because so few homes are changing hands, median prices have remained relatively stable, masking underlying weakness. * Melody argues that this cycle differs from 2008 in several important ways. One major concern is demographics. Younger generations simply don't have the purchasing power needed to replace aging homeowners at current price levels. Affordability challenges, higher living costs, and slower household formation limit the pool of future buyers. Another difference is the absence of a likely rescue from institutional investors. After the financial crisis, large firms purchased distressed homes and converted them into rental properties, helping stabilize the market. Melody doubts that level of institutional buying will return during this cycle. If private demand remains weak, the government could eventually become the buyer of last resort by purchasing excess housing inventory and converting it into affordable housing programs. * The timeline is another key part of the thesis. The previous housing downturn took roughly four to five years to bottom, but this cycle could last even longer because demographic pressures may persist into the mid-2030s. Instead of a sharp collapse followed by a quick recovery, Melody expects a prolonged period of stagnation and gradual price adjustment. * One event that could dramatically accelerate the process would be a major stock market correction. A significant decline in equities $SPX $QQQ would reduce household wealth, weaken consumer confidence, and further erode purchasing power, potentially causing housing prices to fall much faster than they otherwise would. * So, today's housing market isn't healthy simply because national prices remain elevated. Beneath the surface, demand is weak, affordability remains stretched, regional markets are diverging, and long-term structural forces continue to point toward a prolonged housing downturn that many investors may be underestimating. #housingmarket 💡 Get access to my notes with the key takeaways from this interview with Melody Wright Melody Wright by visiting my Substack (link below) ⬇️

The Housing Crash Nobody Wants to Talk About Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors In this Short video, Melody Wright Melody Wright and Adam Taggart discuss why the U.S. housing market could be headed for a prolonged downturn that may ultimately prove worse than the 2008 housing crash. * The U.S. housing market may look stable on the surface, but the biggest problems are only beginning to emerge. While national home prices have not fallen significantly, Melody believes the market is effectively frozen and could be headed for a correction that ultimately exceeds the Global Financial Crisis in both depth and duration. * The core issue isn't supply—it's demand. There simply aren't enough qualified buyers. The spring selling season, normally the strongest period for home sales, was a major disappointment. Lower mortgage rates early in the year briefly created optimism, but geopolitical uncertainty quickly reversed that momentum. As a result, housing activity remains sluggish. * The buyers who are still transacting fall into two main groups: affluent households purchasing higher-end homes and buyers using government-backed financing programs such as FHA, Fannie Mae, or Freddie Mac. Outside those segments, affordability has become a major obstacle, leaving much of the market without sufficient demand. * The market is also becoming increasingly bifurcated. In parts of the South and West, home sales have picked up compared to last year, but prices are declining as sellers accept lower offers to complete transactions. That's genuine price discovery. Meanwhile, the Northeast and Midwest continue to see weak sales volumes, with June transactions down roughly 7% year over year. Because so few homes are changing hands, median prices have remained relatively stable, masking underlying weakness. * Melody argues that this cycle differs from 2008 in several important ways. One major concern is demographics. Younger generations simply don't have the purchasing power needed to replace aging homeowners at current price levels. Affordability challenges, higher living costs, and slower household formation limit the pool of future buyers. Another difference is the absence of a likely rescue from institutional investors. After the financial crisis, large firms purchased distressed homes and converted them into rental properties, helping stabilize the market. Melody doubts that level of institutional buying will return during this cycle. If private demand remains weak, the government could eventually become the buyer of last resort by purchasing excess housing inventory and converting it into affordable housing programs. * The timeline is another key part of the thesis. The previous housing downturn took roughly four to five years to bottom, but this cycle could last even longer because demographic pressures may persist into the mid-2030s. Instead of a sharp collapse followed by a quick recovery, Melody expects a prolonged period of stagnation and gradual price adjustment. * One event that could dramatically accelerate the process would be a major stock market correction. A significant decline in equities $SPX $QQQ would reduce household wealth, weaken consumer confidence, and further erode purchasing power, potentially causing housing prices to fall much faster than they otherwise would. * So, today's housing market isn't healthy simply because national prices remain elevated. Beneath the surface, demand is weak, affordability remains stretched, regional markets are diverging, and long-term structural forces continue to point toward a prolonged housing downturn that many investors may be underestimating. #housingmarket 💡 Get access to my notes with the key takeaways from this interview with Melody Wright Melody Wright by visiting my Substack (link below) ⬇️

Thoughtful Money®

16,535 次观看 • 1 个月前

India's banking system looks healthier than it has in years. Bad loans are falling. Defaults appear under control. The RBI's Financial Stability Report paints a reassuring picture. But dig a little deeper into the same report and a different story begins to emerge. ⮞ Household debt has reached a record high as a percentage of GDP. ⮞ Nearly half of household borrowing is now for consumption rather than asset creation. ⮞ Between 5% and 10% of retail borrowers may already be borrowing simply to service existing debt. ⮞ Early signs of stress are rising even as headline bad loan numbers continue to improve. The interesting part isn't that the data is hidden. It's that both the optimistic and the cautious interpretations come from the very same RBI report. So, what should investors make of it? Watch the full analysis between Saurabh Mukherjea and Nandita Rajhansa, CFA as they unpack what the RBI's Financial Stability Report is really saying and what it could mean for India's economy, markets and your portfolio:

India's banking system looks healthier than it has in years. Bad loans are falling. Defaults appear under control. The RBI's Financial Stability Report paints a reassuring picture. But dig a little deeper into the same report and a different story begins to emerge. ⮞ Household debt has reached a record high as a percentage of GDP. ⮞ Nearly half of household borrowing is now for consumption rather than asset creation. ⮞ Between 5% and 10% of retail borrowers may already be borrowing simply to service existing debt. ⮞ Early signs of stress are rising even as headline bad loan numbers continue to improve. The interesting part isn't that the data is hidden. It's that both the optimistic and the cautious interpretations come from the very same RBI report. So, what should investors make of it? Watch the full analysis between Saurabh Mukherjea and Nandita Rajhansa, CFA as they unpack what the RBI's Financial Stability Report is really saying and what it could mean for India's economy, markets and your portfolio:

Marcellus Investment Managers

11,338 次观看 • 28 天前

Was very excited about this thoughtful conversation with Jonathan Ehrenfeld, Head of Strategy at Swift. I think it clearly showcases the large benefits of Swift as a private key signing infrastructure, financial standards organization and network for routing key financial messages/information across the capital markets, among many other key services it already provides. It is clear to me that for our industry to go to the next stage, we need to make sure that blockchains become compatible with the existing financial system. Chainlink has a key role to play in making that happen, by simplifying the connectivity of those traditional data, payment and compliance systems into all blockchains, as well as the connectivity of those blockchains between each other. There will continue to be more and more critical data, identity, payment, compliance and other key systems to be integrated into and across blockchains securely, which I feel Chainlink is in a unique position to address in ways no other system can. You can hear my and Jon's views in the full podcast here:

Was very excited about this thoughtful conversation with Jonathan Ehrenfeld, Head of Strategy at Swift. I think it clearly showcases the large benefits of Swift as a private key signing infrastructure, financial standards organization and network for routing key financial messages/information across the capital markets, among many other key services it already provides. It is clear to me that for our industry to go to the next stage, we need to make sure that blockchains become compatible with the existing financial system. Chainlink has a key role to play in making that happen, by simplifying the connectivity of those traditional data, payment and compliance systems into all blockchains, as well as the connectivity of those blockchains between each other. There will continue to be more and more critical data, identity, payment, compliance and other key systems to be integrated into and across blockchains securely, which I feel Chainlink is in a unique position to address in ways no other system can. You can hear my and Jon's views in the full podcast here:

Sergey Nazarov

52,040 次观看 • 1 年前